Home games and new stakes: What we like (and don’t like) about the 12-team playoff
Last week, ESPN’s college football reporters made their cases for the players, teams and games that they are most excited to see in the fall. This week, they’re talking about the 12-team playoff — what the issues with the format might be and which teams will be able to make the most of the new system. They’ll also give their way-too-early predictions for the 12 teams that will compete for the national title.
What are you most looking forward to — or what is your biggest concern — about the new format?
David Hale: The argument against a playoff — any playoff — was always about watering down the regular season. For the most part, that wasn’t a concern during the four-team era, though there were certainly signs of problems. In a 12-team playoff with just four power conferences now — and some might argue just two — there’s a real concern games that meant a ton in the regular season before are now more about spectacle than stakes. With seven “at-large” bids, teams that finish third or even fourth in the SEC or Big Ten will still have a real shot at the playoff. That may be a good thing to a degree, but it will also water down the impact of the three months of games that lead up to the playoff.
Take last year’s Penn State — a team that finished the regular season ranked in the top 10, which would have guaranteed a playoff bid under this new system. The Nittany Lions beat Iowa (meh) and lost badly to both Michigan and Ohio State. No other games on the schedule really moved the needle. So, under the 12-team model, you’d have a playoff team that basically only needed to win one marginally impactful game all year to earn its spot. Is that really what we want?
And what, exactly, is the point of a conference title game when both teams that play in the SEC or Big Ten championship will head to the playoff? The big Georgia-Clemson game to open the 2024 season? The outcome means virtually nothing in the playoff discussion. In a time when other sports are desperately trying to find ways to add intrigue to the regular season — baseball’s “Field of Dreams” game, the NBA’s in-season tournament, the NHL’s outdoor classic — college football has effectively sold off its most valuable asset (the stakes of every Saturday’s games) in favor of a larger playoff field.
Harry Lyles Jr.: Hale’s concern about a watered-down regular season is also mine. As somebody who was in the Big House on Nov. 25 this year, lessening stakes of rivalry games at the end of the season like Ohio State-Michigan feels like the wrong decision. With that said, I fully plan on embracing the new format and will still enjoy it, especially once we get into on-campus games at schools that historically haven’t been in championship or playoff contention. Those electric environments are going to be great, and are one of the many reasons why I love college football. And hey, the one year we get a true Cinderella will validate all of this, right?
Chris Low: This is an easy one: the on-campus games in the first round. College football was made to be played on college campuses with students walking from their dorms to the stadium, three generations of a family tailgating in the same spot they have for decades and music blaring from fraternity houses. Then there’s the ambiance that goes along with playing at campus venues — Clemson running down the hill at Death Valley, the giant “T” opening at Neyland Stadium as the Tennessee players charge onto the field, Washington fans arriving to Husky Stadium by boat and sailgating, Penn State white outs in Happy Valley and the Notre Dame fight song being played with Touchdown Jesus looking down on a cold winter day in South Bend. Granted, it’s just one round of on-campus sites. But at least we get one round of real, live college football pageantry.
Bill Connelly: Honestly, I’m looking forward to not being nearly as angry about the selection process and the top of the rankings. The CFP committee has proven that when picking the top four teams is particularly tough — as it was in 2014 and 2023 — it can make some super-strange (and, in the case of 2023, infuriating and misguided) decisions. But now it obviously has quite a bit of margin for error. Plus, with the autobids in place for a set number of conference champions, there’s a path for more than half of FBS to reach the CFP no matter what the committee thinks of them. Obviously there will still be some ways for the committee to anger people. We’ll figure out a way to get fired up over whoever ranks 13th, for one, and it could still screw up who gets access to the playoff from the Group of 5 level. But it’s pretty clear at this point that if we want the right four teams in the semifinals, we need to invite a lot more than four teams to the party, and this margin for error will be a welcome thing for my blood pressure.
David’s right in that the trade-off for this margin for error is that certain games become spectacles only and the stakes for specific, big rivalry games are lowered. But man, oh man, are the conference title races going to be fun. The Big 12 is going to have about 10 teams that are exactly the same from a quality standpoint. The ACC could have about four to six. And considering how much of an advantage byes could give for the top four teams (a.k.a. conference champions), there should still be plenty of stakes for Ohio State-Michigan, Oklahoma-Texas, et cetera. I always enjoy the regular season, and I’ll be shocked if I don’t enjoy it even more this fall.
Andrea Adelson: While I have been in favor of an expanded playoff since the BCS, I have concerns about a playoff with this many teams. Hopefully this does not sound like a “get off my lawn” argument, but the season is now going to stretch into late January, players will be playing more games than ever and ultimately, I think we are going to arrive to the semis and championship game with essentially the same group of schools that would have been there in a four-team CFP. What happened to Florida State last season (and UCF, Baylor, Ohio State et al previously) reinforced the need to expand. The four-team CFP was obviously, and very seriously, flawed. But 12 teams feels like too many, and it will only further diminish everything outside the playoff.
Heather Dinich: The larger field of contenders is going to be fan-freaking-tastic. While the sport will ultimately wind up with familiar faces in the national title game, the appearance of fairness will make for a far more interesting and inclusive path to it. Notre Dame should be in more often than not. Big Ten teams other than Ohio State and Michigan have a chance. It’s not just Alabama and Georgia in the SEC. And the best Group of 5 team no longer faces unrealistic requirements to get into the exclusive club.
Which team will make its first playoff appearance in 2024?
USC
Hale: Odds are, we’ll have a handful of first-timers. Unless TCU or Cincinnati wins the Big 12, that league will definitely send a first-timer to the playoff. Utah, Kansas and Texas Tech should all be in that conversation. The Group of 5 will have an auto bid, too, which will put Memphis, Tulane, Boise State and others in the mix. Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa each had among the best overall records of the four-team era, but never made a playoff. That could change in 2024. But here’s the most fun guess: USC. The Trojans move to the Big Ten, which could either be a difficult transition or the key to improving its defense (by avoiding all those Pac-12 offenses). I’m leaning toward the latter.
Ole Miss
Low: Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin have knocked on the playoff door in two of the last three seasons. The Rebels are poised to knock that door down in 2024. They have an elite (and experienced) quarterback in Jaxson Dart. Tre Harris returns as one of the more dynamic receivers in college football, and Ole Miss beefed up its offensive line and front seven on defense thanks to a transfer portal haul ranked as one of the best in the country. Kiffin has pumped life into an Ole Miss program that has improved in all facets, and as schedules go in 2024, the Rebels appear to have one of the more manageable ones in the SEC.
Penn State
Connelly: Expansion should indeed make for a fun batch of first-timers, but there’s no question it helps the Penn States of the world over all others. In the last two regular seasons, Penn State went 0-2 against Michigan and Ohio State and 20-0 against everyone else — that pretty much screams “annual No. 8ish seed” — and if new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki can provide a boost of creativity and explosiveness on that side of the ball, the Nittany Lions should be well on their way to hitting just about the same mark this year.
Missouri (and Arizona)
Adelson: Ole Miss feels like an easy choice, but how about Missouri from the SEC? An expanded playoff surely means the potential for at least three (or likely more?) SEC teams to make it in. Mizzou would have made a 12-team playoff last year and is returning quarterback Brady Cook and top receiver Luther Burden III. One more team to keep an eye on in the newly reconfigured Big 12: Arizona. Jedd Fisch might be gone, but Brent Brennan has proven himself at San Jose State and gets to work with one of the best QB-WR duos returning to college football in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan
Memphis
Lyles Jr.: I’ll pick the Group of 5 representative and go with Ryan Silverfield’s Memphis Tigers. With SMU going to the ACC, Tulane having another year of departures after 2022’s run to the Cotton Bowl, and UTSA welcoming in a new quarterback, I think the Tigers are in a great position in the AAC to make a run. Quarterback Seth Henigan will be going into his fourth season as a starter on a Memphis team that’s got some weapons returning around him, like wideout Roc Taylor and running back Sutton Smith. Linebacker Chandler Martin is also coming back and was a leader both emotionally and statistically on their defense. That type of continuity could be enough to help them continue to break through just as they did this past season.
What is your way-too-early prediction for the 12-team playoff field?
Note: The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the top four seeds AND a first-round bye. This means each writer’s top four teams below are also predictions of conference champions — but that might not necessarily reflect where the writer would rank those teams in his or her top 25. For example, Dinich has Utah as the No. 3 seed and projected Big 12 champion, but would rank the Utes No. 7 overall.
Hale
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Kansas
First-round matchups: 5. Oregon vs. 12. Memphis; 6. Texas vs. 11. USC; 7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Florida State; 8. Alabama vs. 9. Ole Miss
Low
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Utah, 4. Clemson
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12. Liberty; 6. Oregon vs. 11. Michigan; 7. Alabama vs. 10. Penn State; 8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Notre Dame
Connelly
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Kansas State
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12 Memphis; 6. Ohio State vs. 11. Utah; 7. Penn State vs. 10. Alabama; 8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Michigan
Adelson:
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Arizona
First-round matchups: 5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State; 6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Florida State; 7. Texas vs. 10. Kansas State; 8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Missouri
Lyles:
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Utah
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12. Memphis; 6. Ohio State vs. 11. Penn State; 7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Alabama; 8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Michigan
Dinich
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Utah, 4. Louisville
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12. Boise State; 6. Ole Miss vs. 11 USC; 7. Oregon vs. 10. Missouri; 8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Alabama
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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