Home games and new stakes: What we like (and don’t like) about the 12-team playoff
Last week, ESPN’s college football reporters made their cases for the players, teams and games that they are most excited to see in the fall. This week, they’re talking about the 12-team playoff — what the issues with the format might be and which teams will be able to make the most of the new system. They’ll also give their way-too-early predictions for the 12 teams that will compete for the national title.
What are you most looking forward to — or what is your biggest concern — about the new format?
David Hale: The argument against a playoff — any playoff — was always about watering down the regular season. For the most part, that wasn’t a concern during the four-team era, though there were certainly signs of problems. In a 12-team playoff with just four power conferences now — and some might argue just two — there’s a real concern games that meant a ton in the regular season before are now more about spectacle than stakes. With seven “at-large” bids, teams that finish third or even fourth in the SEC or Big Ten will still have a real shot at the playoff. That may be a good thing to a degree, but it will also water down the impact of the three months of games that lead up to the playoff.
Take last year’s Penn State — a team that finished the regular season ranked in the top 10, which would have guaranteed a playoff bid under this new system. The Nittany Lions beat Iowa (meh) and lost badly to both Michigan and Ohio State. No other games on the schedule really moved the needle. So, under the 12-team model, you’d have a playoff team that basically only needed to win one marginally impactful game all year to earn its spot. Is that really what we want?
And what, exactly, is the point of a conference title game when both teams that play in the SEC or Big Ten championship will head to the playoff? The big Georgia-Clemson game to open the 2024 season? The outcome means virtually nothing in the playoff discussion. In a time when other sports are desperately trying to find ways to add intrigue to the regular season — baseball’s “Field of Dreams” game, the NBA’s in-season tournament, the NHL’s outdoor classic — college football has effectively sold off its most valuable asset (the stakes of every Saturday’s games) in favor of a larger playoff field.
Harry Lyles Jr.: Hale’s concern about a watered-down regular season is also mine. As somebody who was in the Big House on Nov. 25 this year, lessening stakes of rivalry games at the end of the season like Ohio State-Michigan feels like the wrong decision. With that said, I fully plan on embracing the new format and will still enjoy it, especially once we get into on-campus games at schools that historically haven’t been in championship or playoff contention. Those electric environments are going to be great, and are one of the many reasons why I love college football. And hey, the one year we get a true Cinderella will validate all of this, right?
Chris Low: This is an easy one: the on-campus games in the first round. College football was made to be played on college campuses with students walking from their dorms to the stadium, three generations of a family tailgating in the same spot they have for decades and music blaring from fraternity houses. Then there’s the ambiance that goes along with playing at campus venues — Clemson running down the hill at Death Valley, the giant “T” opening at Neyland Stadium as the Tennessee players charge onto the field, Washington fans arriving to Husky Stadium by boat and sailgating, Penn State white outs in Happy Valley and the Notre Dame fight song being played with Touchdown Jesus looking down on a cold winter day in South Bend. Granted, it’s just one round of on-campus sites. But at least we get one round of real, live college football pageantry.
Bill Connelly: Honestly, I’m looking forward to not being nearly as angry about the selection process and the top of the rankings. The CFP committee has proven that when picking the top four teams is particularly tough — as it was in 2014 and 2023 — it can make some super-strange (and, in the case of 2023, infuriating and misguided) decisions. But now it obviously has quite a bit of margin for error. Plus, with the autobids in place for a set number of conference champions, there’s a path for more than half of FBS to reach the CFP no matter what the committee thinks of them. Obviously there will still be some ways for the committee to anger people. We’ll figure out a way to get fired up over whoever ranks 13th, for one, and it could still screw up who gets access to the playoff from the Group of 5 level. But it’s pretty clear at this point that if we want the right four teams in the semifinals, we need to invite a lot more than four teams to the party, and this margin for error will be a welcome thing for my blood pressure.
David’s right in that the trade-off for this margin for error is that certain games become spectacles only and the stakes for specific, big rivalry games are lowered. But man, oh man, are the conference title races going to be fun. The Big 12 is going to have about 10 teams that are exactly the same from a quality standpoint. The ACC could have about four to six. And considering how much of an advantage byes could give for the top four teams (a.k.a. conference champions), there should still be plenty of stakes for Ohio State-Michigan, Oklahoma-Texas, et cetera. I always enjoy the regular season, and I’ll be shocked if I don’t enjoy it even more this fall.
Andrea Adelson: While I have been in favor of an expanded playoff since the BCS, I have concerns about a playoff with this many teams. Hopefully this does not sound like a “get off my lawn” argument, but the season is now going to stretch into late January, players will be playing more games than ever and ultimately, I think we are going to arrive to the semis and championship game with essentially the same group of schools that would have been there in a four-team CFP. What happened to Florida State last season (and UCF, Baylor, Ohio State et al previously) reinforced the need to expand. The four-team CFP was obviously, and very seriously, flawed. But 12 teams feels like too many, and it will only further diminish everything outside the playoff.
Heather Dinich: The larger field of contenders is going to be fan-freaking-tastic. While the sport will ultimately wind up with familiar faces in the national title game, the appearance of fairness will make for a far more interesting and inclusive path to it. Notre Dame should be in more often than not. Big Ten teams other than Ohio State and Michigan have a chance. It’s not just Alabama and Georgia in the SEC. And the best Group of 5 team no longer faces unrealistic requirements to get into the exclusive club.
Which team will make its first playoff appearance in 2024?
USC
Hale: Odds are, we’ll have a handful of first-timers. Unless TCU or Cincinnati wins the Big 12, that league will definitely send a first-timer to the playoff. Utah, Kansas and Texas Tech should all be in that conversation. The Group of 5 will have an auto bid, too, which will put Memphis, Tulane, Boise State and others in the mix. Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa each had among the best overall records of the four-team era, but never made a playoff. That could change in 2024. But here’s the most fun guess: USC. The Trojans move to the Big Ten, which could either be a difficult transition or the key to improving its defense (by avoiding all those Pac-12 offenses). I’m leaning toward the latter.
Ole Miss
Low: Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin have knocked on the playoff door in two of the last three seasons. The Rebels are poised to knock that door down in 2024. They have an elite (and experienced) quarterback in Jaxson Dart. Tre Harris returns as one of the more dynamic receivers in college football, and Ole Miss beefed up its offensive line and front seven on defense thanks to a transfer portal haul ranked as one of the best in the country. Kiffin has pumped life into an Ole Miss program that has improved in all facets, and as schedules go in 2024, the Rebels appear to have one of the more manageable ones in the SEC.
Penn State
Connelly: Expansion should indeed make for a fun batch of first-timers, but there’s no question it helps the Penn States of the world over all others. In the last two regular seasons, Penn State went 0-2 against Michigan and Ohio State and 20-0 against everyone else — that pretty much screams “annual No. 8ish seed” — and if new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki can provide a boost of creativity and explosiveness on that side of the ball, the Nittany Lions should be well on their way to hitting just about the same mark this year.
Missouri (and Arizona)
Adelson: Ole Miss feels like an easy choice, but how about Missouri from the SEC? An expanded playoff surely means the potential for at least three (or likely more?) SEC teams to make it in. Mizzou would have made a 12-team playoff last year and is returning quarterback Brady Cook and top receiver Luther Burden III. One more team to keep an eye on in the newly reconfigured Big 12: Arizona. Jedd Fisch might be gone, but Brent Brennan has proven himself at San Jose State and gets to work with one of the best QB-WR duos returning to college football in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan
Memphis
Lyles Jr.: I’ll pick the Group of 5 representative and go with Ryan Silverfield’s Memphis Tigers. With SMU going to the ACC, Tulane having another year of departures after 2022’s run to the Cotton Bowl, and UTSA welcoming in a new quarterback, I think the Tigers are in a great position in the AAC to make a run. Quarterback Seth Henigan will be going into his fourth season as a starter on a Memphis team that’s got some weapons returning around him, like wideout Roc Taylor and running back Sutton Smith. Linebacker Chandler Martin is also coming back and was a leader both emotionally and statistically on their defense. That type of continuity could be enough to help them continue to break through just as they did this past season.
What is your way-too-early prediction for the 12-team playoff field?
Note: The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the top four seeds AND a first-round bye. This means each writer’s top four teams below are also predictions of conference champions — but that might not necessarily reflect where the writer would rank those teams in his or her top 25. For example, Dinich has Utah as the No. 3 seed and projected Big 12 champion, but would rank the Utes No. 7 overall.
Hale
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Kansas
First-round matchups: 5. Oregon vs. 12. Memphis; 6. Texas vs. 11. USC; 7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Florida State; 8. Alabama vs. 9. Ole Miss
Low
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Utah, 4. Clemson
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12. Liberty; 6. Oregon vs. 11. Michigan; 7. Alabama vs. 10. Penn State; 8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Notre Dame
Connelly
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Kansas State
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12 Memphis; 6. Ohio State vs. 11. Utah; 7. Penn State vs. 10. Alabama; 8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Michigan
Adelson:
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Arizona
First-round matchups: 5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State; 6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Florida State; 7. Texas vs. 10. Kansas State; 8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Missouri
Lyles:
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Utah
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12. Memphis; 6. Ohio State vs. 11. Penn State; 7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Alabama; 8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Michigan
Dinich
First-round byes: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Utah, 4. Louisville
First-round matchups: 5. Texas vs. 12. Boise State; 6. Ole Miss vs. 11 USC; 7. Oregon vs. 10. Missouri; 8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Alabama
With a long-awaited ruling in the settlement of the House case expected this week, college sports are on the precipice of a major overhaul.
While Judge Claudia Ann Wilken still needs to issue a final approval on the long-awaited settlement, a decision is expected to arrive in the near future.
Changes will come quickly to the way college sports work if the settlement is formalized. Most prominent among them will be a change in how enforcement works, as the NCAA will no longer be in charge of traditional enforcement, and a CEO will soon be put in place with powers that never existed prior.
The CEO of college sports’ new enforcement organization — the College Sports Commission — will have the final say in doling out punishments and deciding when rules have been violated, according to sources, a level of singular power that never existed during the NCAA’s era of struggling to enforce its rules.
The CEO’s hire is expected to come quickly after the House settlement is finalized and has been spearheaded by the Power 4 commissioners from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Their pick to lead the new agency will quickly become one of the most powerful and influential people in college sports. The hiring of a new CEO of the College Sports Commission already is deep in the process, per ESPN sources. The conducting of the search process before the job can officially be created is indicative of how quickly the entire billion-dollar industry will have to transform before games are played again in August. Nothing can happen formally until the judge’s decision, but the process is well underway.
The CEO of the commission will be one of the faces of this new era of college athletics. Sources have told ESPN to expect the person to come from outside college athletics and not to be a household name to college sports fans. The CEO is expected to make seven figures and, once the settlement is in place and they are hired, will have significant authority.
“All the institutions are going to have new membership agreements that we’re all agreeing to these new rules,” said an industry source familiar with the process. “The CEO is going to have responsibility to make sure everything is enforced and the governance model is sound. It’s a critically important role for the future of college sports and college football.”
The CEO is expected to report to a board, which is expected to include the power conference commissioners. The CEO will also be in charge of essentially running the systems that have been put in place — LBi Software and accounting firm Deloitte have been lined up to handle salary cap management and to manage the clearinghouse for name, image and likeness.
With the NCAA no longer involved with traditional enforcement, it will mark a distinct industry shift. (The NCAA will still deal with issues such as academics and eligibility.)
According to sources, a vision of what this leader could look like, and the extent of the position’s powers, is illustrated in drafts of so-called association documents that all schools are expected to sign to formalize the new enforcement entity. Basically, the schools need to agree that they’ll follow the rules.
While sources caution the documents that have been circulated are still in draft stage, sources say the draft includes language that the CEO will make “final factual findings and determinations” on violations of rules. The CEO will also “impose such fines, penalties or other sanctions as appropriate,” in accordance with the rules.
The schools have to accept these rulings “as final,” with the exception being if a school or athlete wants to challenge the discipline. They’d be required, per sources, “to engage in the arbitration process,” which is expected to be the sole recourse.
Per sources, when cases do end up in arbitration, under the procedures that govern arbitration, subpoena power is a potential option via the discovery process — an authority that was not available during NCAA investigations.
As college sports have zigzagged to where they are thanks to the direction of myriad lawsuits and rulings, the association agreement could also include a clause where the schools “agree to waive any right to a jury trial with respect to all disputes arising out of or relating to this agreement.” That notion would still need to be accepted by all the schools, and it’s not expected to prevent lawsuits from entities outside of the schools.
It’s worth noting that the lawsuits that have brought major changes to NCAA rules in recent years have started with attorneys general or with athletes. Congress is expected to still be needed to help create a legal framework for the new system to function without being tripped up by the current patchwork of state laws.
Enforcement has long been a thorn for the NCAA, which is now offloading one of its most controversial and least effective departments. All schools agree with enforcement as an ideal, but the issues come once the enforcement is enacted on them or their athletes.
Few coaches this generation have seen NCAA enforcement as an effective threat to follow the rules.
“It all starts with enforcement, and I’ve said this for a long time, ‘Until we have an enforcement arm put into place, we’re always going to be working sideways,'” Ohio State coach Ryan Day told ESPN on the “College GameDay” podcast recently. “I feel like before we set a rule, before we do anything, we have to put a structure in place where we can enforce rules on and off the field.”
The new organization looks to have expedited timelines and a highly compensated CEO to be the face of the decisions. (The NCAA used a committee on infractions.)
The drumbeat leading to the settlement is indicative of the past generations of behavior, as schools have been rushing to spend outside of the expected cap, with frontloading so significant that the highest-paid basketball roster is expected to have compensation totaling close to $20 million and football rosters are expected to be in the $40 million range.
Will schools fall in line once rules are put into place? Will the threat of enforcement be enough to settle down the landscape? It’s difficult for coaches to imagine player salaries going backward for 2026.
The ultimate deterrent will be stiff and consistent penalties to deter rule-breaking behavior, which have been elusive historically because of lack of NCAA enforcement prowess and the lengthy process of enforcement.
Purdue AD Mike Bobinski told ESPN in March that the punishments need to “leave a mark,” and he mentioned the New Orleans Saints’ Bountygate sanctions as an example of the type of punishment that changed behavior. (Then-Saints coach Sean Payton was suspended for the entire 2012 season as part of the penalties.)
“We’ve screwed this thing up now to the point where we have to be willing to draw a line in the sand, and that will create some pain,” Bobinski said. “There’s no two ways about it, and we’ll find out who’s just going to insist on stepping over the line. But if they do, you got to deal with it forcefully and quickly.”
He added that the Big Ten has put a lot of thought and conversation into this, as he said the mindset has to be changed to where coaches and programs can’t consider breaking the rules “worth it.”
Bobinski added: “People are working hard on this thing. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy or it’s going to be accepted right out of the box, but I’d like to think we’ve got a chance at least to do it well.”
ESPN reporter Dan Murphy contributed.
Following the Florida Panthers‘ Game 7 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday, the NHL’s final four is official: The defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers will take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals, while the Dallas Stars face the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference finals.
This Eastern matchup is a rematch of the 2023 conference finals, won by the Panthers in a sweep. Can Carolina win this time, or will Florida head back to the Stanley Cup Final for a third straight year?
To help get you up to speed before the series begins Tuesday, we’re here with key intel from ESPN Research, wagering info from ESPN BET and more.
Paths to the conference finals:
Hurricanes: Defeated Devils in five, Capitals in five
Panthers: Defeated Lightning in five, Maple Leafs in seven
Leading playoff scorers:
Hurricanes: Seth Jarvis (four goals, six assists), Sebastian Aho (three goals, seven assists)
Panthers: Brad Marchand (three goals, nine assists), Eetu Luostarinen (three goals, nine assists)
Schedule:
Game 1: Panthers at Hurricanes | May 20, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 2: Panthers at Hurricanes | May 22, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 3: Hurricanes at Panthers | May 24, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 4: Hurricanes at Panthers | May 26, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 5: Panthers at Hurricanes | May 28, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 6: Hurricanes at Panthers | May 30, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 7: Panthers at Hurricanes | June 1, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Series odds:
Panthers: -125
Hurricanes: +105
Stanley Cup odds:
Panthers: +250
Hurricanes: +300
Matchup notes from ESPN Research
Hurricanes
The Hurricanes reached the conference finals for the sixth time in franchise history and third time in the past six years. Carolina’s three conference finals appearances since 2019 are tied with the Edmonton Oilers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights for the second most in the NHL. The Dallas Stars have gone four times in the past six years.
Logan Stankoven is expected to make his Eastern Conference finals debut, after he appeared in the Western Conference finals with the Stars last year in his first NHL season. He will join Ville Leino (2009 and 2010) as the only players to play in both the Eastern and Western Conference finals in their first two seasons in the NHL (since 1994).
The Hurricanes have lost 12 straight games in the conference finals round. Their last win was Game 7 in 2006 vs. the Buffalo Sabres, when now-coach Rod Brind’Amour scored the eventual winning goal on a power play with 8:38 left in the third period after a puck-over-glass penalty. That 12-game losing streak includes being swept by the Panthers in 2023.
Carolina won its 10th playoff series under Brind’Amour since 2019; only the Lightning (11) have more series wins during that span.
Andrei Svechnikov‘s series-clinching goal 18:01 into the third period is the second-latest series-clinching goal in regulation in franchise history. Eric Staal scored 19:28 into the third period in Game 7 of the 2009 first round at the New Jersey Devils.
With their series win over Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals in the second round, the Hurricanes became the first team to eliminate the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer since the 1997 Philadelphia Flyers, who ousted Wayne Gretzky and the New York Rangers in the conference finals. Brind’Amour, then with the Flyers, had the series-clinching goal.
Panthers
The Panthers advanced to their third straight conference finals with a 6-1 win over the Maple Leafs in Game 7 in Toronto. Florida joins the Dallas Stars in 2023-25, Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020-22, Chicago Blackhawks in 2013-15, Los Angeles Kings in 2012-14 and Detroit Red Wings from 2007-09 as the only teams in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) to make it to three straight conference finals.
Florida trailed 2-0 in the series before coming back to win 4-3, marking the first time in franchise history they’ve overcome a 2-0 series deficit in a best-of-seven playoff series (they had previously been 0-5). The Panthers are the seventh reigning Stanley Cup champions in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) to win a best-of-seven playoff round after facing a 2-0 series deficit.
The Panthers now have a 4-1 record in Game 7s, including 3-0 on the road, becoming the third franchise to win each of its first three road Game 7s (along with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild).
Brad Marchand had three points for the Panthers (one goal, two assists), giving him 10 career points in Game 7s, moving ahead of Alex Ovechkin (eight) for the most Game 7 points among active players, and tied him with Paul Stastny and Jari Kurri for 10th place on the all-time list. Marchand’s three-point total gives him 37 career playoff points vs. the Maple Leafs, passing Alex Delvecchio (35) for the second most by any player against Toronto in their playoff history, behind Gordie Howe (53). Marchand improved to 5-0 against the Maple Leafs in Game 7s for his career, becoming the first player in NHL history to defeat one franchise in five winner-takes-all games.
Panthers coach Paul Maurice also stayed perfect in Game 7s as a head coach, improving to 6-0. He is one of two head coaches in NHL history to win each of his first six career Game 7s, along with current Dallas bench boss Peter DeBoer (9-0).
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Greg Wyshynski
No player in Stanley Cup playoff history has tormented an opponent the way Florida Panthers winger Brad Marchand has tormented the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Panthers eliminated the Maple Leafs 6-1 in Game 7 on Sunday night in Toronto, advancing to the Eastern Conference finals against the Carolina Hurricanes. Marchand became the first player in NHL history to defeat the same opponent in at least five winner-take-all games. He moved to a perfect 5-0 in Game 7s against the Maple Leafs — winning with the Boston Bruins in 2013, 2018, 2019 and 2024, before winning with the Panthers on Sunday.
Marchand had a goal and two assists in the victory.
“I grew up a Leafs fan. I enjoy playing against the Leafs. I enjoy interacting with fans. Like, it’s fun. It’s not something I’ll forever get to do,” he said after Game 7, which was Toronto’s seventh straight loss in a Game 7.
Marchand said that he hadn’t historically played well against Toronto in Game 7s. “It wasn’t me that beat them, it was our team,” he said. But Marchand was anything but a bystander in Florida’s Game 7 win. Marchand set up two goals — including the primary assist on Eetu Luostarinen‘s critical third-period goal just 47 seconds after Max Domi scored for the Maple Leafs — and tallied an empty-net dagger for his third goal of the playoffs.
With his three-point effort, Marchand is now second all time in career playoff scoring against the Maple Leafs with 37 points, trailing only Hockey Hall of Famer Gordie Howe (53).
“I think the thing about Toronto is that their fans are very in your face. They’re aggressive. They let you hear it all the time. So it’s just fun to interact [with them]. I interact with a lot of fans and I enjoy that part of it,” said Marchand, who also passed Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin (8) for the most career Game 7 points (10) among active players.
Boston traded Marchand, its captain, to Florida at March’s NHL trade deadline, ending a 16-year run with the Bruins that included a Stanley Cup championship in 2011 and two other trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
“It was his personality that I didn’t know,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “He’s moved into that Matthew Tkachuk ‘hate them’ [role]. That’s a horrible word, but it’s close. And then they get here and they’re the exact opposite person that you thought they were. He’s just a wonderful human being.”
The Panthers dominated the Leafs from the opening draw, carrying play in Game 7 after Toronto extended the series with a Game 6 road victory Friday night. After two periods, the Panthers held a 70-33 advantage in shot attempts. That included a 39-14 gap in the second period, when Florida scored its first three goals.
Marchand factored into two important ones. Just 4:03 after Seth Jones opened the scoring, Marchand’s shot was deflected by Luostarinen off of goalie Joseph Woll‘s pads, and center Anton Lundell was there to clean it up for his fourth goal of the playoffs to make it 2-0. In the third period, Marchand’s pass was tipped home by Luostarinen.
“There are moments that you need to enjoy. Careers fly by. I’ve been at it a long time. I’m very fortunate. But it’s almost over. I can’t believe how fast it’s gone by. I wish I was able to enjoy more moments,” Marchand said.
With the loss, the Maple Leafs suffered yet another postseason failure. Toronto hasn’t advanced past the second round since 2002. They infamously haven’t won the Stanley Cup since 1967, the longest drought in the NHL for any franchise — including those that have never won a Cup in their existence.
After the game, Marchand was complimentary of this Toronto team. He said of all the Game 7s he has played against the Leafs, he was most nervous about this one because “they competed way harder than they ever have.” He felt criticism of this group, which might have played its last game together, was unwarranted.
“If you look at the heat this team catches, it’s actually really unfortunate. They’ve been working at building something really big here for a while,” he said. “They were a different brand of hockey this year, and they’re getting crucified. I don’t think it’s justified.”
That said, Marchand did have a little fun at Toronto’s expense on the TNT postgame show. When asked what the difference was in the Panthers locker room from Game 6 to Game 7, Marchand said “we just had that be-Leaf” — a winking reference to one of the rallying cries of Toronto fans.
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