US strikes in Middle East: Biden may be left with no choice to hit Iran directly if attacks on American troops don’t stop
The US is trying to hit Iranian targets in the Middle East hard enough to stop attacks against American forces but not so hard that it triggers wider escalation or even direct war with Iran.
Experts in recent days have dubbed the strategy the “Goldilocks” approach because it needs to be just right.
Joe Biden made clear that a response was coming from the moment he accused “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” of killing three US service personnel in Jordan in a drone attack almost a week ago.
But the president also signalled his retaliation would be calculated rather than rushed, saying it would be “at a time and in a manner of our choosing”.
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US begins wave of airstrikes in Iraq and Syria
This bought the administration time to try to navigate the slimmest of paths between a meaningful, powerful and effective military strike against Iranian interests and igniting new conflict in a region that is already at boiling point following the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel that prompted the Israeli war in Gaza.
Map shows approximate targets of US strikes
By choosing not to hit Iran itself directly, Mr Biden has very deliberately sought to avoid escalation, even though he could potentially have justified strikes inside Iranian territory given Tehran’s alleged backing of the groups accused of the lethal drone attack in Jordan.
However, he has still chosen to go after Iran’s elite Quds Force, within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the most potent arm of Iranian military power in the region and the organisation that runs Tehran’s network of proxy militias.
This level of attack could yet trigger a direct, escalatory Iranian response against US targets. Washington will be hoping it won’t.
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Almost exactly three years ago, when Donald Trump was president, the US killed the top Iranian general who had led the Quds Force during its most effective period of proxy warfare against US, British and other Western interests in the Middle East.
The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq in January 2020 triggered an Iranian missile attack against US forces, also in Iraq, in response – a moment of acute peril when the two sides last seemed on the brink of spiralling into all-out war.
That did not happen.
This time around, the Biden administration will likely have tried to work behind the scenes with Iran to reduce the risk of a similar kind of Iranian retaliation in kind.
Washington has also stated that Friday’s strikes were just the beginning, meaning that its adversaries are on notice.
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Biden joins families of US troops killed in drone attack
The president again framed his threat to give a sense that this was the US calling the shots rather than being forced into taking action.
“Our response began today,” he said in a statement released by the White House on Friday. “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”
He added: “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”
For now, perhaps the biggest danger for the United States is that its barrage of strikes against 85 Iranian-linked targets in Iraq and Syria will not be sufficient to deter new attacks that harm or take more American lives.
If that happens again, the president may be left with no choice but to order strikes against Iran directly.
World
President Raisi’s death a perilous moment for Iran regime – but don’t expect a change to foreign policy
This is a delicate time for Iran. President Raisi was the second most important man in Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
His death, now confirmed, will have far-reaching consequences.
Although Khamenei has tried to reassure the country in recent hours, the regime will know this is a perilous moment that must be handled carefully.
Live updates – Iranian president killed in crash
There are mechanisms to protect the regime in events like this and the Revolutionary Guard, which was founded in 1979 precisely for that purpose, will be a major player in what comes next.
In the immediate term, vice-president Mohammed Mokhber will assume control and elections will be held within 50 days.
Mokhber isn’t as close to the supreme leader as Raisi was, and won’t enjoy his standing, but he has run much of Khamenei’s finances for years and is credited with helping Iran evade some of the many sanctions levied on it.
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Drone footage of helicopter crash site
Raisi’s successor will most likely be the chosen candidate of the supreme leader and certainly another ultra-conservative hardliner – a shift back to the moderates is highly unlikely.
Likewise, we shouldn’t expect any significant change in Iran’s foreign activities or involvement with the war in Gaza. It will be business as usual, as much as possible.
However, after years of anti-government demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, this might be a moment for the protest movement to rise up and take to the streets again.
Read more:
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Islamic State may seek to take advantage
There are also many dissident groups inside Iran, including an off-shoot of Islamic State – they might seek to take advantage of this situation.
Raisi became president in 2021 at the second time of asking and only with a turnout of 41%, the lowest since the 1979 revolution.
The president was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei (pictured). Pic: Reuters
He was not a universally popular figure and many inside Iran will celebrate his death.
Consequences for supreme leader
Longer term, Raisi’s death will have consequences for the supreme leader.
He was considered one of the two frontrunners to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamanei on his death – the other being Khamanei’s son Mojtaba.
For religious and conservative Iranians, Raisi’s death will be mourned; for many though, it will be the passing of a man who had blood on his hands.
World
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi confirmed dead in helicopter crash after charred wreckage found
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has died after the helicopter he was travelling in crashed in a mountainous area of northwest Iran.
Rescuers found the burned remains of the aircraft on Monday morning after the president and his foreign minister had been missing for more than 12 hours.
“President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” a senior Iranian official told Reuters, asking not to be named.
Live updates – Iranian president killed in crash
Iran‘s Mehr news agency reported “all passengers of the helicopter carrying the Iranian president and foreign minister were martyred”.
State TV said images showed it had smashed into a mountain peak, although there was no official word on the cause of the crash.
“President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead,” an official told Reuters.
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President of Iran killed in crash
The crash happened in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province
As the sun rose, rescuers saw the wreckage from around 1.25 miles, the head of the Iranian Red Crescent Society, Pir Hossein Kolivand, told state media.
Iranian news agency IRNA said the president was flying in an American-made Bell 212 helicopter.
Read more:
Who is Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi?
Many will be fearing instability after ‘butcher of Tehran’ killed
Iranian TV showed the president on the helicopter during a trip to Azerbaijan
TV pictures from Sunday showed thick fog at the search site. Pic: IRNA
Mr Raisi, 63, who was seen as a frontrunner to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, was travelling back from Azerbaijan where he had opened a dam with the country’s president.
Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, also died in the crash.
The governor of East Azerbaijan province and other officials and bodyguards were also said to have been on board when the helicopter crashed in fog on Sunday.
Iranian media initially described it as a “hard landing”.
The chief of staff of Iran’s army had ordered all military resources and the Revolutionary Guard to be deployed in the search, which had been hampered by bad weather.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to react to the news of Mr Raisi’s death.
“India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow,” he said in a post on X.
A helicopter carrying Iran’s president crashed during bad weather on Sunday.
But who is Ebrahim Raisi – a leader who faces sanctions from the US and other nations over his involvement in the mass execution of prisoners in 1988.
The president, 63, who was travelling alongside the foreign minister and two other key Iranian figures when their helicopter crashed, had been travelling across the far northwest of Iran following a visit to Azerbaijan.
Follow live: Rescuers search for president after helicopter crash
Mr Raisi is a hardliner and former head of the judiciary who some have suggested could one day replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Because of his part in the sentencing of thousands of prisoners of conscience to death back in the 1980s, he was nicknamed the Butcher of Tehran as he sat on the so-called Death Panel, for which he was then sanctioned by the US.
Raisi and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Both a revered and a controversial figure, Mr Raisi supported the country’s security services as they cracked down on all dissent, including in the aftermath of the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini – the woman who died after she was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly – and the nationwide protests that followed.
The months-long security crackdown killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained.
People light a fire during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini in Tehran, 2022. Pic: Reuters
In March, a United Nations investigative panel found that Iran was responsible for the “physical violence” that led to Ms Amini’s death after her arrest for not wearing a hijab, or headscarf, to the liking of authorities.
The president is seen as a frontrunner to replace Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (pictured). Pic: Reuters
The president also supported Iran’s unprecedented decision in April to launch a drone and missile attack on Israel amid its war with Hamas, the ruling militant group in Gaza responsible for the 7 October attacks which saw 1,200 people killed in southern Israel.
Involvement in mass executions
Mr Raisi is sanctioned by the US in part over his involvement in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 at the end of the bloody Iran-Iraq war.
Under the president, Iran now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and hampers international inspections.
Iran has armed Russia in its war on Ukraine and has continued arming proxy groups in the Middle East, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
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He successfully ran for the presidency back in August 2021 in a vote that got the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history as all of his potentially prominent opponents were barred from running under Iran’s vetting system.
A presidency run in 2017 saw him lose to Hassan Rouhani, the relatively moderate cleric who as president reached Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
‘Very involved in anything’
Alistair Bunkall, Sky News’s Middle East correspondent, said the president is “a major figure in Iranian political and religious society” but “he’s not universally popular by any means” as his administration has seen a series of protests in the past few years against his and the government’s “hardline attitude”.
Mr Raisi is nonetheless “considered one of the two frontrunners to potentially take over” the Iranian regime when the current supreme leader dies, Bunkall said.
He added the president would have been “instrumental” in many of Iran’s activities in the region as he “would’ve been very involved in anything particularly what has been happening in Israel and the surrounding areas like Lebanon and Gaza and the Houthis over the last seven and a bit months”.
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