These by-election results could be consequential and dramatic – here’s why

Published

1 year ago

February 16, 2024

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It has been a stonking night for Labour – winning two more by-elections in safe Conservative seats on substantial swings.

The momentum of last year’s gains in Tamworth, Selby and Ainsty, and Mid Bedfordshire, which some in the party had feared would stall, has continued to accelerate in the first tests of the general election year.

Tories crash to new postwar low with double defeat – live updates

Of course, by-elections can deliver fireworks that do not directly translate into general election results, but these polls appear dramatic and consequential.

First, because they show British politics has turned on its head in just three years.

Here is a number to show the scale of the tumult – in May 2021, less than three years ago, a seemingly unassailable Boris Johnson took his party into a by-election in Hartlepool and won the seat from Labour with the biggest increase in vote share to a governing party since 1945.

Tories expected defeat – but not on this scale

Overnight in Wellingborough, a safe Tory seat with an 18,500 majority barely on Labour’s campaign radar until a few months ago, was won on a swing of 28.5%.

The second-biggest swing since 1945 and the largest-ever drop in Tory vote share.

It had been at number 226 on Labour’s target list.

Senior Conservatives I spoke to in the final 24 hours of campaigning had predicted a double defeat, but not one on this scale.

They had hoped to hold on to 60% of their vote and that the swing would be less dramatic than in Tamworth and Selby at almost 24%.

In fact, in Wellingborough it far exceeded that swing, and vote share collapsed.

Uniquely cursed contests – or potentially terminal?

The picture was better in Kingswood, but the worry in Conservative HQ is that however you cut it, this looks potentially terminal.

The Conservatives will say today these contests were uniquely cursed.

In Wellingborough, they had a soap opera with the long-serving MP Peter Bone, who was found to have bullied and exposed himself to a member of staff, allegations he denies. His partner Helen Harrison was running in his place; leading the national party to keep its distance from this campaign.

In Kingswood, the MP Chris Skidmore who was standing down anyway, triggered a by-election that Tories didn’t need over net zero policy – in a seat which is being abolished in boundary changes.

Tory MPs did not hold back on their anger about it – and voters were telling Labour campaigners they didn’t understand “what the bloody point of this is”, as one MP reported back.

Even with that, Labour overturned an 11,000 majority with a swing of 16 points.

Threats from the left and the right

Sir Keir Starmer, jubilant after a difficult couple of weeks, which still raise ongoing questions about his judgement, said the contests show people “want change” and “Conservative voters are switching directly to this changed Labour Party”.

There is another subplot to this by-election which is the rise of the Reform Party, which achieved its best results at 10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough.

In the former, that’s enough votes that if they had gone to the Conservatives instead, they would have claimed victory.

Jacob Rees-Mogg was quick to tell Sky News, it is time to “unite the Conservative family” by bringing them into the fold.

Reform’s impact should not be overstated – the party’s forerunner UKIP used to win by-elections outright; and both Labour and the Conservative accuse the party of underperforming in this contest.

But leader Richard Tice has vowed not to do any deals to unite the right-wing vote and that presents a challenge.

The Conservatives were worried – putting out literature in Wellingborough, seen by Sky News, specifically targeting Reform voters.

And they may not want to help Rishi Sunak, with polling by YouGov and others suggesting far from all of Reform voters will return to the Conservatives at general election time.

Bad sign for general election

All this presents the prime minister with a terrible backdrop for the final few months before the election – with few opportunities to change the narrative, although the forthcoming Budget is one.

More of his internal critics could raise their heads above the parapet to call for a shift in strategy – or even leadership – after weeks of grumbling by critics of his Rwanda policy.

The parties will pick over the numbers in the coming hours and days, in particular on the question of how many voters were direct switchers from the Tories to Labour.

But as the choice in the general election looms, it’s another hammering which confirms Labour’s momentum.

And one which exposes another difficult front for the Conservatives on their right flank. Conservative MPs are unlikely to write it off as a bad day at the office.

Politics

Who’s nicer – Lords or MPs?

Published

4 mins ago

April 18, 2025

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👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

The two baronesses of the podcast finally lift the lid on the House of Lords in this special Q&A episode. What’s it really like on the red benches in parliament? And if you’re a Lord, are you a has-been?

Also – was Tony Blair actually cool in the 90s? Or was it just a more optimistic time in politics?

Come and join us LIVE on Tuesday 20th May at Cadogan Hall in London, tickets available now: https://www.aegpresents.co.uk/event/electoral-dysfunction-live/

Remember you can also watch us on YouTube!

Politics

Why a ‘Trump-fest’ could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

Published

4 mins ago

April 18, 2025

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Why a 'Trump-fest' could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

It was perhaps not quite how officials, in London at least, had envisaged the announcement of the state visit would be made.

In the Oval Office, Donald Trump revealed the news in his own way.

“I was invited by the King and the great country. They are going to do a second fest – that’s what it is. It is beautiful,” he said during an impromptu Oval Office moment.

The question was, did this “fest” – which Mr Trump suggested could happen in September – amount to the much hyped second state visit for the American president?

Or was this actually just the smaller visit that had been offered two months ago as an initial bilateral visit at which the state visit would be discussed?

Back in February, Sir Keir Starmer presented the president with a letter from King Charles and the offer of a state visit.

The letter proposed an initial meeting between the King and the president to discuss details of the state visit at either Dumfries House or Balmoral, both in Scotland, close to Mr Trump’s golf clubs.

The King wrote: “Quite apart from this presenting an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest, it would also offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit to the United Kingdom… As you will know this is unprecedented by a US president. That is why I would find it helpful for us to be able to discuss, together, a range of options for location and programme content.”

As he revealed the news of his “fest” with his “friend Charles”, Mr Trump said: “I think they are setting a date for September…”

Sources have since confirmed to Sky News that it will amount to the full state visit.

‘Even more important’

It’s possible the initial less formal presidential trip may still happen between now and September. Mr Trump is in Europe for the NATO summit in June and is due in Scotland to open a new golf course soon too.

“It is the second time it has happened to one person. The reason is we have two separate terms, and it’s an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William,” the president said.

“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one. The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”

His last state visit in 2019, at the invitation of the late Queen, drew significant protests epitomised by the giant blow-up “Baby Trump” which floated over Parliament Square.

Britain’s trump card

September is a little earlier than had been expected for the visit. It may be an advantage for it to happen sooner rather than later, given the profoundly consequential and controversial nature of the first few months of his second term.

The decision by the British government to play its “state visit trump card” up front back in February drew some criticism.

And since February, Mr Trump’s position on numerous issues has been increasingly at odds with all of America’s allies.

On Ukraine, he has seemingly aligned himself closely with Vladimir Putin. His tariffs have caused a global economic shock. And on issues like Greenland and Canada, a member of the Commonwealth, he has generated significant diplomatic shock.

A risk worth taking

Mr Trump is as divisive among the British public as he is in America. Sir Keir is already walking a political tightrope by choosing the softly softly approach with the White House.

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The UK government chose not to retaliate against Mr Trump’s tariffs, unlike some allies. Sir Keir and his cabinet have been at pains not to be seen to criticise the president in any way as they seek to influence him on Ukraine and seek an elusive economic deal on tariffs.

On that tariff deal, despite some positive language from the US side and offers on the table, there has yet to be a breakthrough. A continuing challenge is engaging with the president for decisions and agreements only he, not his cabinet, will make.

British officials acknowledge the risk the state visit poses. In this presidency, anything could happen between now and September.

But they argue British soft power and Mr Trump’s fondness for the Royal Family and pomp – or a “fest” as he calls it – amount to vital diplomatic clout.

For a special relationship under strain, a special state visit is the tonic.

Politics

Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child ‘influencers’, senior MP suggests

Published

3 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child 'influencers', senior MP suggests

Laws may need to be strengthened to crack down on the exploitation of child “influencers”, a senior Labour MP has warned.

Chi Onwurah, chair of the science, technology and innovation committee, said parts of the Online Safety Act – passed in October 2023 – may already be “obsolete or inadequate”.

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Experts have raised concerns that there is a lack of provision in industry laws for children who earn money through brand collaborations on social media when compared to child actors and models.

This has led to some children advertising in their underwear on social media, one expert has claimed.

Those working in more traditional entertainment fields are safeguarded by performance laws, which strictly govern the hours a minor can work, the money they earn and who they are accompanied by.

The Child Influencer Project, which has curated the world’s first industry guidelines for the group, has warned of a “large gap in UK law” which is not sufficiently filled by new online safety legislation.

The group’s research found that child influencers could be exposed to as many as 20 different risks of harm, including to dignity, identity, family life, education, and their health and safety.

Ms Onwurah told Sky News there needs to be a “much clearer understanding of the nature of child influencers ‘work’ and the legal and regulatory framework around it”.

She said: “The safety and welfare of children are at the heart of the Online Safety Act and rightly so.

“However, as we know in a number of areas the act may already be obsolete or inadequate due to the lack of foresight and rigour of the last government.”

Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for science, innovation and technology, agreed that regulations “need to keep pace with the times”, with child influencers on social media “protected in the same way” as child actors or models.

“Liberal Democrats would welcome steps to strengthen the Online Safety Act on this front,” she added.

‘Something has to be done’

MPs warned in 2022 that the government should “urgently address the gap in UK child labour and performance regulation that is leaving child influencers without protection”.

They asked for new laws on working hours and conditions, a mandate for the protection of the child’s earnings, a right to erasure and to bring child labour arrangements under the oversight of local authorities.

However, Dr Francis Rees, the principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, told Sky News that even after the implementation of the Online Safety Act, “there’s still a lot wanting”.

“Something has to be done to make brands more aware of their own duty of care towards kids in this arena,” she said.

Dr Rees added that achieving performances from children on social media “can involve extremely coercive and disruptive practices”.

“We simply have to do more to protect these children who have very little say or understanding of what is really happening. Most are left without a voice and without a choice.”

What is a child influencer – and how are they at risk?

A child influencer is a person under the age of 18 who makes money through social media, whether that is using their image alone or with their family.

Dr Francis Rees, principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, explains this is an “escalation” from the sharing of digital images and performances of the child into “some form of commercial gain or brand endorsement”.

She said issues can emerge when young people work with brands – who do not have to comply with standard practise for a child influencer as they would with an in-house production.

Dr Rees explains how, when working with a child model or actor, an advertising agency would have to make sure a performance license is in place, and make sure “everything is in accordance with many layers of legislation and regulation around child protection”.

But, outside of a professional environment, these safeguards are not in place.

She notes that 30-second videos “can take as long as three days to practice and rehearse”.

And, Dr Rees suggests, this can have a strain on the parent-child relationship.

“It’s just not as simple as taking a child on to a set and having them perform to a camera which professionals are involved in.”

The researcher pointed to one particular instance, in which children were advertising an underwear brand on social media.

She said: “The kids in the company’s own marketing material or their own media campaigns are either pulling up the band of the underwear underneath their clothing, or they’re holding the underwear up while they’re fully clothed.

“But whenever you look at any of the sponsored content produced by families with children – mum, dad, and child are in their underwear.”

Dr Rees said it is “night and day” in terms of how companies are behaving when they have responsibility for the material, versus “the lack of responsibility once they hand it over to parents with kids”.