No big free agent, no problem? Why Cubs are comfortable rolling with what they’ve got
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
MESA, Ariz. — When the Chicago Cubs made the first bold move of the MLB offseason, luring manager Craig Counsell from the rival Milwaukee Brewers with a $40 million contract in mid-November, many across the sport figured it could be the start of a winter spree on the North Side — even though Jed Hoyer said that wouldn’t necessarily be the case.
Fast forward to the start of spring training and it looks like the team’s president of baseball operations might be right, as the roster looks very similar to the one that missed the playoffs by a single game last year. Sure, there were additions, like 30 year-old starter Shota Imanaga and 34 year-old reliever Hector Neris, but the biggest headlines have come from the moves the Cubs didn’t make.
While they were mentioned as players for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Cubs didn’t land either of the most coveted free agents on the market — or any other elite level player. And to this point, they haven’t been able to retain the one who patrolled center field at Wrigley Field last season either, as Cody Bellinger is still a free agent.
That’s because, in part, their plan to compete revolves around promoting young players from their highly touted farm system (ranked No. 2 in MLB by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel) as much as opening their wallets for splashy veteran additions. So instead of cameras following every move made by a new star at spring training, the vibe at Sloan Park is about lauding an arriving wave of talent.
“We have a lot of young players and some young veteran players that I think have a chance to take real steps forward,” Hoyer said last week. “The most exciting thing for me is I think we have a deep roster. And we have a deep roster of players that have a chance to continue to get better. I think that gives me a lot of hope that we can accomplish this year what we couldn’t last year.”
But the question is whether those young players arriving with big hype — such as hitting prospects Owen Cassie and Pete Crow-Armstrong and pitchers Cade Horton and Ben Brown — will really be ready to fill the holes Chicago needs to plug in 2024. Currently there are question marks in center field, at both corner-infield positions and throughout the pitching staff.
“I look back where we were a year ago and some of the players that have stepped forward and now we’re considering those guys established big leaguers,” Hoyer said, referencing All-Star Justin Steele. “The hope is we look a year from now and there are five to six of those guys that establish themselves as Cubs.”
Despite that hope, there’s still a lingering disappointment from falling just short of the postseason that’s evident early in spring training, leaving players, such as second baseman Nico Hoerner, contemplating whether the Cubs are better now than they were last year.
“All of us are asking that question individually and as a group, and it’s up to us to answer that as the season plays out,” Hoerner said. “Any time you go too deep in predicting baseball, it’s usually not very accurate. Obviously, you want the best possible team you can have on the diamond.
“There’s still players out there, so I don’t know what that will look like, but as far as the group that we have here now, I think we definitely have what we need to compete as well as make a lot of improvements internally.”
Of course, the biggest improvement to the roster would come if Bellinger were to make a dramatic spring entrance announcing his return like Dexter Fowler did in 2016 — but don’t count on that happening anytime soon.
The Cubs and Bellinger’s camp have been at a standstill for the entire offseason and nothing has changed, according to sources familiar with the situation. That doesn’t mean a deal can’t still happen, but it does show that the Cubs are willing to enter 2024 without the 2019 MVP and that it is extremely unlikely the team changes its stance on offering a massive deal — especially considering the plan was always to transition to Crow-Armstrong in center. A shorter term stay with opt outs is always a possibility though, as the Cubs want to remain flexible as its young players mature into big leaguers.
But even if a Bellinger reunion never happens, the Cubs could also use the services of free agent third baseman Matt Chapman, and they’ve been linked to Miami Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo as a potential trade fit — so additions aren’t out of the question.
But it is getting late, and time may be running out. Hoyer said last month that they were only in the fourth or fifth inning of their offseason maneuvering, but he gave an update this past week that “the closer is warming up at this point.”
If the door does close on a noteworthy last-minute free agent addition, Counsell will be counted on as the biggest difference-maker for the season ahead.
Widely regarded as one of the best managers, if not the best, in the sport, Counsell takes over a team that missed the playoffs despite a plus-96 run differential. His impact could be enough to limit the bad stretches — like the one on offense in May or the string of September series losses — that had the Cubs watching from home in October.
Early-season projections have Chicago on the outside of the playoffs again, but maybe those systems can’t measure the combination of a new manager and a young hungry team with several players looking to break through. And if Counsell is able to do that — bring together a young roster and make it a little bit better — then perhaps nobody will remember the moves the Cubs didn’t make this winter.
“In my experience, the way teams overachieve and have special seasons is by having guys do things they weren’t projected to do,” Counsell said. “We have a number of guys in this camp that have a chance to exceed expectations and make that step. That’s how you end up having a special season.”
Sports
NHL Power Rankings: Capitals retain the crown, plus each team’s most intriguing game before 4 Nations
NHL teams will be taking a break in the middle of February for the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, featuring star players from each team playing for the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland.
But before that event begins, which games are the most intriguing? As part of this week’s updated edition of the Power Rankings, we’ve identified the top captivating contest for all 32 teams — whether it’s a game against a rival, one that takes on added value in the playoff races, or something else entirely.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Jan. 17. Points percentages and paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 73.96%
Feb. 1 vs. Jets. Not only is this a potential Stanley Cup Final preview — sponsored by the letter W? — but thanks to their heritage as the Southeast Division’s Atlanta Thrashers, the Jets franchise is the team against which Alex Ovechkin has scored the most goals in his career (55). How many will he get in this one?
Next eight days: @ VAN (Jan. 25), @ CGY (Jan. 28), @ OTT (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 68.37%
Jan. 28 at Canadiens. Maybe this isn’t for the entire team, but just for a couple of Jets in particular: Connor Hellebuyck and Kyle Connor. Though this game against the Canadiens obviously counts in the NHL standings, Hellebuyck and Connor will hit this same ice at the Bell Centre on Feb. 15 as the U.S. takes on Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off, the first best-on-best clash between these two countries since the semifinal round of the 2014 Olympics.
Next eight days: vs. UTA (Jan. 24), vs. CGY (Jan. 26), @ MTL (Jan. 28), @ BOS (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 66.67%
Jan. 26 vs. Panthers. For any team that has its sights set on a long playoff run, games against the defending Cup champs take on extra meaning. The Knights lost a 4-3 overtime contest against the Cats on Oct. 19. How will this game end up?
Next eight days: @ DAL (Jan. 24), vs. FLA (Jan. 26), vs. DAL (Jan. 28), vs. CBJ (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 65.63%
Feb. 1 vs. Maple Leafs. No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since the Canadiens in 1993, though the Oilers were just one win away in 2024. Along with the Jets, these two clubs represent the country’s best chance of breaking that streak, and the cross-continent clash will give us a preview of what a Cup Final between the two could look like.
Next eight days: vs. BUF (Jan. 25), vs. SEA (Jan. 27), vs. DET (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 64.29%
Feb. 4 at Jets. A potential Stanley Cup Final preview? This matchup might not set any viewership records, but it would be superb hockey.
Next eight days: @ NYI (Jan. 25), @ NYR (Jan. 28), vs. CHI (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 63.27%
Feb. 6 at Kraken. For years, Yanni Gourde tormented the Maple Leafs as a member of the Lightning. With the veteran center’s name being floated in trade rumors — and the Leafs always looking for ways to improve the team — could they be playing this game against a future teammate?
Next eight days: @ OTT (Jan. 25), vs. MIN (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 62.50%
Jan. 30 at Canadiens. Future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury has announced he’ll retire at the end of this season, so — barring a Stanley Cup Final matchup between these teams — this will be his last visit as a pro to his home province.
Next eight days: vs. CGY (Jan. 25), @ CHI (Jan. 26), @ TOR (Jan. 29), @ MTL (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 62.77%
Jan. 24 vs. Golden Knights; Jan. 28 at Golden Knights. The Stars have had some epic postseason showdowns with the Knights recently — and both appear playoff-bound again this season — so this pair of games will be a treat. Will the intensity match what we’ve seen in springs past?
Next eight days: vs. VGK (Jan. 24), @ STL (Jan. 25), @ VGK (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60.20%
Feb. 8 vs. Senators. There’s a possible future world in which the Panthers and Senators face off in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs — ensuring us at least four games of Tkachuk-on-Tkachuk combat. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Any game in which Brady and Matthew face off has the potential for viral highlights.
Next eight days: @ SJ (Jan. 25), @ VGK (Jan. 26), vs. LA (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 63.33%
Feb. 7 vs. Stars. On some nights, the Kings look as if they could beat any team in the NHL; other nights, not so much. So this matchup against the perennial contender Stars will be a litmus test ahead of the 4 Nations break.
Next eight days: @ CBJ (Jan. 25), @ DET (Jan. 27), @ FLA (Jan. 29), @ TB (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 60.00%
Feb. 6 vs. Golden Knights. Because of some wonkiness with the schedule, this is the first meeting between these two playoff-bound clubs (they’ll face off again in Vegas on March 2).
Next eight days: @ MTL (Jan. 25), @ PHI (Jan. 27), vs. PHI (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 59.18%
Feb. 7 at Oilers. Once the 4 Nations Face-Off begins, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will be teammates of Connor McDavid’s for Canada. But on this night, they’ll be battling hard for two points as the Western Conference bracket remains tight.
Next eight days: @ BOS (Jan. 25), @ NYR (Jan. 26), @ NYI (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 57.61%
Feb. 4, 6 vs. Senators. For the past few preseasons, there has been some thought that the Lightning would regress and one of the rising Atlantic teams would take their spot in the playoffs. So far, that hasn’t proven to be the case — but this back-to-back set against one of those rising teams will go a long way (one way or another).
Next eight days: @ CHI (Jan. 24), @ DET (Jan. 25), vs. CHI (Jan. 28), vs. LA (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 57.61%
Jan. 26 at Jets. Every game is important for a team like the Flames on the cusp of a wild-card berth. But, we’ll circle this one as an old-school Smythe Division rivalry renewed, featuring two elite American goaltenders: leading Vezina Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck and Calder Trophy candidate Dustin Wolf.
Next eight days: @ MIN (Jan. 25), @ WPG (Jan. 26), vs. WSH (Jan. 28), vs. ANA (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 54.17%
Jan. 25 vs. Maple Leafs. The Battle of Ontario continues! The Sens took Round 1 this season in Toronto, and the two clubs will face off again on March 15. These games are never boring, especially with both teams in the playoff hunt.
Next eight days: vs. TOR (Jan. 25), vs. UTA (Jan. 26), vs. WSH (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 54.17%
Feb. 9 vs. Lightning. Despite modest expectations entering this season, the Canadiens remain within shouting distance of a wild-card berth. A win against their division rivals from central Florida would greatly aid in that quest.
Next eight days: vs. NJ (Jan. 25), vs. WPG (Jan. 28), vs. MIN (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 54.08%
Feb. 8 vs. Rangers. For a team on the wild-card bubble, every point matters. But games against division rivals matter more — especially if a team can hand that rival a regulation loss. This game will make a statement (one way or another) for the Blue Jackets.
Next eight days: vs. LA (Jan. 25), @ VGK (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 54.00%
Feb. 1 vs. Rangers. Have the Rangers turned a corner back to being a true contender after a midseason swoon? Perhaps. Whether the trend sticks or not, this is a pivotal game for the Bruins to use as a measuring stick (and the two teams will face off again four days later at MSG.)
Next eight days: vs. COL (Jan. 25), @ BUF (Jan. 28), vs. WPG (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 54.17%
Jan. 28 vs. Hurricanes. Although the Rangers won their second-round playoff series against the Canes last spring, Carolina has beaten them in regulation in both matchups this season. A win here would really signal that the Blueshirts have turned around their fortunes.
Next eight days: vs. COL (Jan. 26), vs. CAR (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.19%
Jan. 31 at Stars. If the various reports are true, the Canucks are seeking out the best new home for disgruntled center J.T. Miller. Well, on this night, they’ll be visiting one of those potential options, as the Stars are on the prowl for a veteran center to replace injured Tyler Seguin.
Next eight days: vs. WSH (Jan. 25), @ STL (Jan. 27), @ NSH (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 51.02%
Feb. 4 vs. Oilers. There are some who considered Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner a snub from Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster. One of the netminders who did make it? The Blues’ Jordan Binnington. Perhaps Binnington will have extra motivation in this one to show that Hockey Canada made the right call.
Next eight days: vs. DAL (Jan. 25), vs. VAN (Jan. 27)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.02%
Feb. 8 vs. Penguins. Although the Keystone State battles are a little more captivating when the Flyers and Penguins are both in line for playoff berths, the matchups are typically enthralling; to wit, their matchup on Dec. 23 ended 7-3.
Next eight days: @ NYI (Jan. 24), vs. NJ (Jan. 27), @ NJ (Jan. 29), vs. NYI (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.13%
Jan. 29 vs. Penguins. It’s a big deal any time a superstar comes to town, but Penguins games are particularly notable for UHC center Logan Cooley, who participated in Sidney Crosby‘s “Little Penguins” program as a youth player.
Next eight days: @ WPG (Jan. 24), @ OTT (Jan. 26), vs. PIT (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 51.04%
Jan. 25, Feb. 8 vs. Lightning. Given the ties between the franchises — including current Detroit GM/former Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman — games between the two are always must-see affairs. And with the Red Wings currently chasing the Lightning in the standings, these will matter even more.
Next eight days: vs. TB (Jan. 25), vs. LA (Jan. 27), @ EDM (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 48.00%
Feb. 8 at Flyers. A stretch in late January (at the Kraken, Sharks and Utah) might wield more influence on the Penguins’ playoff hopes, but a win here against the rival Flyers might mean more heading into the break.
Next eight days: @ SEA (Jan. 25), @ SJ (Jan. 27), @ UTA (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 48.91%
Jan. 24 vs. Flyers, Jan. 30 at Flyers. The Islanders’ playoff hopes remain alive, and the Flyers are one of the teams over which they’ll have to climb if they want to extend their postseason streak.
Next eight days: vs. PHI (Jan. 24), vs. CAR (Jan. 25), vs. COL (Jan. 28), @ PHI (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 45.92%
Jan. 28 vs. Ducks. Things haven’t gone as well as planned in Dan Bylsma’s first season behind the Kraken bench, and the team is closer to the bottom of the standings than the top. As a result, this matchup against another struggling Pacific Division club could have outsized impact on Seattle’s ultimate spot in the draft order.
Next eight days: vs. PIT (Jan. 25), @ EDM (Jan. 27), vs. ANA (Jan. 28), vs. SJ (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 45.74%
Feb. 1 at Penguins. A rematch of the 2017 Stanley Cup Final! But as both GMs have continually been asked by reporters about their plans for the trade deadline, perhaps this will be a preview of some players who will find themselves skating elsewhere by March 7.
Next eight days: @ ANA (Jan. 25), vs. VAN (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 42.71%
Jan. 31 vs. Predators. It’s looking more likely that the Sabres will miss the playoffs again, meaning that their rise up the draft lottery board is of no small amount of interest. Games against fellow struggling teams like the Preds will have an outsized impact.
Next eight days: @ EDM (Jan. 25), vs. BOS (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 45.83%
Feb. 8 at Kings. The Ducks are mainly looking at their spot in the draft lottery standings at this point, but their final game before the break will be against the rival Kings, a matchup that always raises the proverbial temperature.
Next eight days: vs. NSH (Jan. 25), @ SEA (Jan. 28), @ CGY (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.17%
Feb. 5 vs. Oilers. At one point, Connor McDavid was a generational star playing for a team that wasn’t winning a ton of games. Will this matchup be a look into the future for Connor Bedard?
Next eight days: vs. TB (Jan. 24), vs. MIN (Jan. 26), @ TB (Jan. 28), @ CAR (Jan. 30)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 33.33%
Jan. 30 at Kraken. At some point, these are going to be really great matchups given the wealth of young talent on both of these rosters (and in the pipelines). For now, it’s all about the nautical theming.
Next eight days: vs. FLA (Jan. 25), vs. PIT (Jan. 28), @ SEA (Jan. 30)
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