No big free agent, no problem? Why Cubs are comfortable rolling with what they’ve got
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
MESA, Ariz. — When the Chicago Cubs made the first bold move of the MLB offseason, luring manager Craig Counsell from the rival Milwaukee Brewers with a $40 million contract in mid-November, many across the sport figured it could be the start of a winter spree on the North Side — even though Jed Hoyer said that wouldn’t necessarily be the case.
Fast forward to the start of spring training and it looks like the team’s president of baseball operations might be right, as the roster looks very similar to the one that missed the playoffs by a single game last year. Sure, there were additions, like 30 year-old starter Shota Imanaga and 34 year-old reliever Hector Neris, but the biggest headlines have come from the moves the Cubs didn’t make.
While they were mentioned as players for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Cubs didn’t land either of the most coveted free agents on the market — or any other elite level player. And to this point, they haven’t been able to retain the one who patrolled center field at Wrigley Field last season either, as Cody Bellinger is still a free agent.
That’s because, in part, their plan to compete revolves around promoting young players from their highly touted farm system (ranked No. 2 in MLB by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel) as much as opening their wallets for splashy veteran additions. So instead of cameras following every move made by a new star at spring training, the vibe at Sloan Park is about lauding an arriving wave of talent.
“We have a lot of young players and some young veteran players that I think have a chance to take real steps forward,” Hoyer said last week. “The most exciting thing for me is I think we have a deep roster. And we have a deep roster of players that have a chance to continue to get better. I think that gives me a lot of hope that we can accomplish this year what we couldn’t last year.”
But the question is whether those young players arriving with big hype — such as hitting prospects Owen Cassie and Pete Crow-Armstrong and pitchers Cade Horton and Ben Brown — will really be ready to fill the holes Chicago needs to plug in 2024. Currently there are question marks in center field, at both corner-infield positions and throughout the pitching staff.
“I look back where we were a year ago and some of the players that have stepped forward and now we’re considering those guys established big leaguers,” Hoyer said, referencing All-Star Justin Steele. “The hope is we look a year from now and there are five to six of those guys that establish themselves as Cubs.”
Despite that hope, there’s still a lingering disappointment from falling just short of the postseason that’s evident early in spring training, leaving players, such as second baseman Nico Hoerner, contemplating whether the Cubs are better now than they were last year.
“All of us are asking that question individually and as a group, and it’s up to us to answer that as the season plays out,” Hoerner said. “Any time you go too deep in predicting baseball, it’s usually not very accurate. Obviously, you want the best possible team you can have on the diamond.
“There’s still players out there, so I don’t know what that will look like, but as far as the group that we have here now, I think we definitely have what we need to compete as well as make a lot of improvements internally.”
Of course, the biggest improvement to the roster would come if Bellinger were to make a dramatic spring entrance announcing his return like Dexter Fowler did in 2016 — but don’t count on that happening anytime soon.
The Cubs and Bellinger’s camp have been at a standstill for the entire offseason and nothing has changed, according to sources familiar with the situation. That doesn’t mean a deal can’t still happen, but it does show that the Cubs are willing to enter 2024 without the 2019 MVP and that it is extremely unlikely the team changes its stance on offering a massive deal — especially considering the plan was always to transition to Crow-Armstrong in center. A shorter term stay with opt outs is always a possibility though, as the Cubs want to remain flexible as its young players mature into big leaguers.
But even if a Bellinger reunion never happens, the Cubs could also use the services of free agent third baseman Matt Chapman, and they’ve been linked to Miami Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo as a potential trade fit — so additions aren’t out of the question.
But it is getting late, and time may be running out. Hoyer said last month that they were only in the fourth or fifth inning of their offseason maneuvering, but he gave an update this past week that “the closer is warming up at this point.”
If the door does close on a noteworthy last-minute free agent addition, Counsell will be counted on as the biggest difference-maker for the season ahead.
Widely regarded as one of the best managers, if not the best, in the sport, Counsell takes over a team that missed the playoffs despite a plus-96 run differential. His impact could be enough to limit the bad stretches — like the one on offense in May or the string of September series losses — that had the Cubs watching from home in October.
Early-season projections have Chicago on the outside of the playoffs again, but maybe those systems can’t measure the combination of a new manager and a young hungry team with several players looking to break through. And if Counsell is able to do that — bring together a young roster and make it a little bit better — then perhaps nobody will remember the moves the Cubs didn’t make this winter.
“In my experience, the way teams overachieve and have special seasons is by having guys do things they weren’t projected to do,” Counsell said. “We have a number of guys in this camp that have a chance to exceed expectations and make that step. That’s how you end up having a special season.”
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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