British firms’ exports are almost certainly bolstering Russia’s war machine in Ukraine, Sky data analysis finds
British companies are exporting hundreds of millions of pounds of equipment and machinery which almost certainly ends up in Russia, undermining the official sanctions regime and bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine, according to data analysis from Sky News.
The items – which include drone equipment, optical supplies and heavy machinery – are being sent to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and others, from where they are understood to be forwarded on to Russia.
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The numbers show that despite the sharp fall in the flow of goods to Russia, following the imposition of trade sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine two years ago, large volumes of sensitive, “dual use” British goods are still finding their way to Moscow.
The analysis underlines the scale of Britain’s participation in a shadow economy which helps keep Russia’s military supplied with parts and hardware for the weaponry it uses against Ukraine
Flows of British goods to Russia itself have fallen by 74% since the outbreak of war, following the imposition of sanctions. The vast majority of exports still flowing to Russia are food, medical products or other humanitarian items.
Flows of heavy machinery, electrical equipment and cars have dropped to nearly zero.
Those figures imply the sanctions regime has been incredibly successful, and indeed, a government spokesperson said: “We have implemented the most severe package of economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.”
However, closer examination of Britain’s official trade statistics provides an alternative prism.
They show that while UK exports to Russia have fallen sharply, UK exports to a suite of former Soviet satellite states – from Uzbekistan to Georgia – have risen at an unprecedented rate.
British exports to Kyrgyzstan, the small former Soviet satellite state, have risen at a breakneck rate, by over 1,100%. These exports are dominated by the heavy machinery and vehicles which can no longer be sent directly to Russia.
A Europe-wide problem
According to Robin Brooks, former chief economist of financial body the IIF, this is something which has been going on for some time, with other European countries, most notably Germany and Poland, also sending large quantities of hardware to Russia via these Caucasus and Central Asian states.
“They’re clearly getting an order from somewhere that is a Russian satellite that happens to be domiciled in one of these Central Asian countries,” he said.
“What happens then? Maybe there’s plausible deniability, maybe they know… all we know for sure is that the rise in export volumes that is happening is completely insane, and is inconsistent with any underlying data in these countries.
“So the only reasonable explanation is: Russia.
“From the Western European and especially the EU side, I would say, this has been going on for a while. It is at this point widely known in Brussels, and I think there is a key question as to why nothing is being done at a central EU level to stop this?”
British officials argue that they are constantly attempting to tighten the UK sanctions regime. A spokesperson told Sky News: “We also recently announced the creation of a new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation to strengthen our enforcement of sanctions.
“Any non-compliance with these tough sanctions is a serious offence and punishable through large financial penalties or criminal prosecution.”
Exports to other Russia-adjacent states
However, the scale and breadth of the trade is striking. UK export volumes haven’t just spiked to Kyrgyzstan. They are also up nearly as sharply to Armenia, which, according to Mr Brooks, has recorded a sharp increase in its onward goods exports to Russia.
Doubly worrying is the fact that among the goods being sent to these countries are significant quantities of items considered “dual use” – which can be repurposed into weaponry.
Found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons
The European Union has a list of 45 categories of goods – “common high priority items” as they call them – which have been found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons.
Sky News analysis shows that British exports to four Caucasus and Central Asian states of these goods, which have been documented as being used to kill Ukrainian citizens – have risen by over 500% since the outbreak of war.
The analysis shows that by far and away the biggest category of goods being sent to these four Caucasus and Central Asian nations was “parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or unmanned aircraft” – in other words, equipment which can be used to make drones and other aeronautic units.
British companies have exported £6m worth of these goods to the four countries, above what they historically tend to export to them.
Other items being sent by UK exporters include data processing machines, aeronautic navigation equipment and radio navigation aids.
According to Tom Keatinge of RUSI: “It’s absolutely a red flag if you’re producing that kind of equipment… and you’ve got this big spike in exports to Kyrgyzstan.
“You’ve surely got to stop and ask yourself: why is that? Am I indirectly resourcing the Russian military? And clearly you don’t want to be doing that. And indeed, in doing that, you’re probably in breach of sanctions.
“The tragedy is that whenever the Ukrainians dissect a drone, or a cruise missile or communications equipment that they get their hands on, there are components in those bits of equipment that come from the EU, that come from the UK and come from the US, and have been manufactured since February 2022.
“So these are fresh exports, these are not legacy exports.”
The White House is considering inviting Volodymyr Zelenskyy to a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, according to reports in the US.
The reports come a day after Washington and Moscow confirmed the US and Russian presidents will meet on Friday to discuss bringing about an end to the war in Ukraine.
A senior US official and three people briefed on internal discussions have told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News that the Trump administration is now considering inviting the Ukrainian president to the summit.
“It’s being discussed,” one of the people briefed on the talks was quoted as saying.
The sources said a visit by Mr Zelenskyy has not been finalised – and it is unclear whether the Ukrainian leader will be in Alaska for the summit.
However, the senior administration official said it is “absolutely” possible.
“Everyone is very hopeful that would happen,” the official said.
Asked whether the US had officially invited Mr Zelenskyy to Alaska, a senior White House official said: “The President remains open to a trilateral summit with both leaders. Right now, the White House is focusing on planning the bilateral meeting requested by President Putin.”
Mr Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday before the Alaska summit was confirmed that “we’re getting very close to a deal” that would end the war.
The US president added there will be “some swapping of territories to the betterment of both sides”.
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US diplomacy ‘totally amateur’
Zelenskyy suggests he’s unwilling to give up territory
However, the Ukrainian president warned on Saturday that allowing Russia to keep territory it has occupied in Ukraine will result in another invasion.
He said allowing Mr Putin to annex Crimea in 2014 didn’t prevent Russia forces from occupying more parts of Ukraine during the current conflict.
Mr Zelenskyy added: “Now, Putin wants to be forgiven for seizing the south of our Kherson region, Zaporizhzhia, the entire territory of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and Crimea. We will not allow this second attempt to partition Ukraine.
“Knowing Russia – where there is a second, there will be a third.”
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Zelenskyy: Ukraine will not give land to ‘occupier’
NATO allies say Ukraine must be involved in negotiations
The reports Mr Zelenksyy could be invited to Alaska come as Ukraine and several NATO allies have reportedly been privately concerned Mr Trump might agree to Mr Putin’s proposals for ending the war without taking their positions into account.
In a joint statement on Saturday night, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and the leaders of France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Finland and the European Commission said Ukraine’s future cannot be decided without Kyiv.
They said: “Ukraine has the freedom of choice over its own destiny. Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire or reduction of hostilities.
“The path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine.
“We remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force.
“The current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”
Read analysis:
Lifting sanctions a ‘massive victory for Moscow’
Stakes high for Alaska summit as Zelenskyy faces nightmare deal
Why Trump will have a lot of ice to break at Alaska summit
From left: Volodymr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Pics: AP
UK hosts Ukrainian officials ahead of summit
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy had earlier hosted a meeting of top Ukrainian officials and European national security advisers alongside US vice-president JD Vance on Saturday ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting.
The meeting took place at the foreign secretary’s official country retreat, Chevening, in Kent, where Mr Vance is staying at the start of a UK holiday.
After the meeting, Mr Lammy said: “The UK’s support for Ukraine remains ironclad as we continue working towards a just and lasting peace.”
From left: Rustem Umerov, David Lammy, JD Vance and Andriy Yermak. Pic: X/David Lammy
It is understood that the meeting had been called at Washington’s request, and included representatives from the US, Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, Finland and Poland as well as the UK.
Ukraine was represented by Rustem Umerov, secretary of the country’s national security and defence council, and the head of Mr Zelensky’s office, Andriy Yermak.
In a post on social media, Mr Yermak said the allies’ positions were “clear” that “a reliable, lasting peace is only possible with Ukraine at the negotiating table, with full respect for our sovereignty and without recognising the occupation”.
Ahead of the meeting at Chevening, Sir Keir discussed the talks in a call with Mr Zelenskyy on Saturday and also spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron.
A Downing Street spokeswoman said Sir Keir and Mr Macron “discussed the latest developments in Ukraine, reiterating their unwavering support for President Zelenskyy and to securing a just and lasting peace for the Ukrainian people”.
The location of Alaska is unexpected.
Although close to Russia geographically – less than three miles away at the narrowest point – it’s a very long way from neutral ground.
The expectation was they would meet somewhere in the middle. Saudi Arabia perhaps, or the United Arab Emirates. But no, Vladimir Putin will be travelling to Donald Trump’s backyard.
Follow latest: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will not give up land
It’ll be the first time the Russian president has visited the US since September 2015, when he spoke at the UN General Assembly. Barack Obama was in the White House. How times have changed a decade on.
The US is not a member of the International Criminal Court, so there’s no threat of arrest for Vladimir Putin.
But to allow his visit to happen, the US Treasury Department will presumably have to lift sanctions on the Kremlin leader, as it did when his investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev flew to Washington in April.
And I think that points to one reason why Putin would agree to a summit in Alaska.
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Can Trump end the war in Ukraine?
Read more:
Analysis: Trump will have a lot of ice to break
Explainer: What would a Ukraine ceasefire involve?
Instead of imposing sanctions on Russia, as Trump had threatened in recent days, the US would be removing one. Even if only temporary, it would be hugely symbolic and a massive victory for Moscow.
The American leader might think he owns the optics – the peace-making president ordering a belligerent aggressor to travel to his home turf – but the visuals more than work for Putin too.
Shunned by the West since his invasion, this would signal an emphatic end to his international isolation.
Donald Trump has said a ceasefire deal is close. The details are still unclear but there are reports it could involve Ukraine surrendering territory, something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has always adamantly opposed.
Either way, Putin will have what he wants – the chance to carve up his neighbour without Kyiv being at the table.
And that’s another reason why Putin would agree to a summit, regardless of location. Because it represents a real possibility of achieving his goals.
It’s not just about territory for Russia. It also wants permanent neutrality for Ukraine and limits to its armed forces – part of a geopolitical strategy to prevent NATO expansion.
In recent months, despite building US pressure, Moscow has shown no intention of stopping the war until those demands are met.
It may be that Vladimir Putin thinks a summit with Donald Trump offers the best chance of securing them.
World
It’s been four years since a US president met Putin – and Trump will have a lot of ice to break
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet where their countries brush shoulders.
But why Alaska and why now?
A US-Russia summit in Alaska is geography as metaphor and message.
Alaska physically bridges both countries across the polar expanse.
Follow latest: Ukraine war live updates
Choosing this location signals strategic parity – the US and Russian leaders face to face in a place where their interests literally meet.
Alaska has surged in geopolitical importance due to its untapped fossil fuels.
Trump has aggressively pushed for more control in the Arctic, plans for Greenland and oil access.
Holding talks there centres the conversation where global energy and territorial stakes are high, and the US president thrives on spectacle.
Reuters file pic
A dramatic summit in the rugged frontier of Alaska plays into his flair for the theatrical.
It is brand Trump – a stage that frames him as bold, unorthodox and in command.
It was 2021 when a US president last came face-to-face with a Russian president.
The leaders of the two countries haven’t met since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Pic: AP
But Trump is in touch with all sides – Russia, Ukraine and European leaders – and says they all, including Putin, want “to see peace”.
He’s even talking up the potential shape of any deal and how it might involve the “swapping of territory”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly insisted he will not concede territory annexed by Russia.
Moscow has sent the White House a list of demands in return for a ceasefire.
Read more:
Russia reacts to Trump talks plan
JD Vance raises concerns about free speech in UK
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‘I’m not against meeting Zelenskyy’
Trump is attempting to secure buy-in from Zelenskyy and other European leaders.
He styles himself as “peacemaker-in-chief” and claims credit for ending six wars since he returned to office 200 days ago.
There’s much ice to break if he’s to secure a coveted seventh one in Alaska.
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