These are algorithms that are baked into the devices’ chips themselves, rather than accessed via the cloud.
Samsung has gone big on generative AI with its Galaxy S24 Ultra smartphone.
Google, too, has integrated AI directly into its latest Pixel phones.
Apple, meanwhile, is also reportedly exploring the addition of on-device AI features to the next iPhone, per the Financial Times.
This is all coming at a time when Mobile World Congress, the mobile technology industry’s biggest trade show of the year, is kicking off.
Major device makers like Samsung, Huawei, Honor, and Oppo, plus chip companies like Qualcomm and MediaTek, are expected to talk a big game about how much AI is transforming our personal devices.
When was the last smartphone supercycle?
Smartphone makers have been dreaming of a “supercycle” in their industry, driven by AI, after a bruising few years that saw device sales slow aggressively.
In 2023, smartphone sales fell to 1.16 billion units, the lowest point for unit shipments in a decade.
The last “supercycle” in smartphones happened between 2010 and 2015, where in five years the market grew fivefold from roughly 300 million units sold per year to 1.5 billion units, according to IDC data.
That came at a time when smartphones were just starting to become mainstream thanks to the emergence of widely used applications: Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Uber, Snapchat, Twitter, and Candy Crush Saga, to name a few.
“The growth happened not just because Apple launched the iPhone, or because Google launched Android,” Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of data and analytics at research firm IDC, told CNBC.
“What really made it successful, that supercycle, was the fact that people were able to get the internet in their pocket,” Jeronimo said, in a phone interview with CNBC.
Other things were happening at the time, including the ability to make video calls over the internet with 3G, and the transition to 4G which meant faster speeds.
“We saw very popular operating systems not just the browser, but a world of applications that brought so many services and so much content through the phone,” Jeronimo said.
Ben Wood, chief analyst of CCS Insight, pinpoints the unveiling of the iPhone as the last “seismic disruption” that took place in the industry.
“Everything since then has been less disruptive,” Wood told CNBC.
‘AI phone era’
Major smartphone players are betting that a supercycle is about to happen thanks to AI.
Samsung, which launched the Galaxy S24 Ultra earlier this year, thinks that there’s a strong chance that AI will drive a new dawn that can breathe fresh life into the industry.
James Kitto, Samsung’s head of mobile experience division in the U.K., told CNBC the mobile industry is at the start of a new era of hypergrowth driven by AI.
“There’s every expectation that will be the case. We’re seeing some really, really high demand,” Kitto told CNBC from Samsung’s European headquarters in Chertsey, England.
The Galaxy S24 came with the ability to circle an object on your camera and pull up Google Search results for it, as well as live translation of phone calls to people speaking in foreign languages.
“We’re right now at the dawning of an entirely new era, an AI phone era,” Kitto said.
Brian Rakowski, vice president of product management for Google’s Pixel phone unit, said he expects AI to drive renewed interest around mobile technology.
Google has been working on integrating AI into its devices for years, most notably with the addition of Tensor line of smartphone processors.
“We already saw that AI was going to be the differentiator and the next wave of innovation across all technology but especially mobile,” Rakowski told CNBC. “It is so key to everything all our computing lives and computing platform.”
Google recently made it possible for its Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, to run its Gemini nano AI system. This is a smaller version of its family of large language models which come under the umbrella name Gemini.
“We’ve placed a lot of bets and have really close collaboration with the research team at [AI lab] DeepMind to make sure Pixel is the best way to showcase and surface what’s coming down the pipe,” Rakowski said.
“No one knew that LLMs would be the thing. But we expected breakthroughs in the space,” he added.
Why a supercycle is unlikely
Analysts say a supercycle is unlikely to occur within the next few years as there’s not enough going on in the market in terms of novel features and innovation that will convince people holding their aging smartphones to upgrade.
Sales are expected to see growth this year, according to IDC, with smartphone shipments expected to climb 2.4% this year to 1.19 billion units in 2024. But that’s coming off a low base, and overall represents lackluster growth for an industry.
Growth is expected to remain stagnant from there in the coming years, with IDC forecasting incremental year-over-year increases of between 2% and 3% from 2025 to 2028.
Consumers remain wary about the prospect of upgrading their smartphones today as the prices for upgrading are still elevated.
Plus, much of the latest models that are coming out are still only touting incremental improvements on what came before.
“Much as the potential of AI on smartphones is an exciting prospect, I don’t believe the technology will contribute to a new supercycle for smartphone sales,” Wood told CNBC via email.
“At best it will help sustain sales and add a little bit of extra interest in smartphones at a time when the hardware is becoming increasingly boring.”
Today, there’s not enough excitement about smartphones on a broader level to justify a sales boom of the kind many companies are dreaming up.
That will change in the coming years, according to Jeronimo — but only once artificial intelligence starts becoming useful for consumers.
“If there’s anything that could make [a supercycle] happen, it would be AI,” Jeronimo said. “But with AI, there’s this question mark of how much the phone will become intelligent.”
Smartphones today “are not intelligent,” he added.
“If you see a billboard of the latest Tarantino or ‘Mission Impossible’ movie, what do you do? You need to open an app, book tickets in that app, send texts to your wife, text where she needs to go, go into your calendar app, check when is the best day to go to the movie, and so on.”
Plenty of companies are working on tech that can do exactly this.
For example, Humane has its AI Pin, a compact, square-shaped device that users can speak with to ask it to do certain tasks like setting reminders. It uses OpenAI’s large language models to do so.
Another startup, Rabbit, has a similar device. Geely-owned firm Meizu, meanwhile, recently said it’s giving up on making Android smartphones in favor of creating an AI-focused hardware product.
Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp attends meetings at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Oct. 18, 2023.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
With Palantir’s stock plummeting more than 11% this week despite a better-than-expected earnings report, CEO Alex Karp took aim at investors betting against the software company.
Karp, who co-founded Palantir in 2003, went after short sellers in two separate interviews on CNBC this week. After “Big Short” investor Michael Burry revealed bets against Palantir and Nvidia, Karp on Tuesday accused short sellers of “market manipulation.”
He repeated that message on Friday in an interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen, again knocking Burry’s wager against the stock.
“To get out of his position, he had to screw the whole economy by besmirching the best financials ever … that are helping the average person as investors [and] on the battlefield,” Karp said.
Even with Palantir’s slide this week, the stock is up 135% in 2025 and has multiplied 25-fold in the past three years, an extended rally that’s lifted the company’s market cap to over $420 billion. While revenue and profit are growing rapidly, the multiples have shot up much faster, and the stock now trades for about 220 times forward earnings, a ratio that rivals Tesla’s.
Nvidia and Meta, by contrast, have forward price-to-earnings ratios of about 33 and 22, respectively.
In August, Citron Research’s Andrew Left, a noted short seller, called Palantir “detached from fundamentals and analysis” and said shares should be priced at $40. It closed on Friday at $177.93 after late-day gains pushed the stock into the green.
Palantir, which builds analytics tools for large companies and government agencies, reported earnings and revenue on Monday that topped analysts’ estimates and issued a forecast that was also ahead of Wall Street projections.
But the stock fell about 8% after the report and then slid almost 7% on Thursday. Karp told Eisen that the recent boom in Palantir’s share price isn’t just for Wall Street.
“We’re delivering venture results for retail investors,” he said.
While Palantir has in the past faced a fairly heft dose of short interest, there are currently relatively few investors placing big bets against it. The short interest ratio, or the percentage of outstanding shares being sold short, peaked at over 9% in September and is now at a little over 2%, which is about as low as its been since the company went public in 2020.
Still, calling out the doubters is a common occurrence for Karp, who has previously said on CNBC that people should “exit” if they “don’t like the price.”
In May, after the stock plummeted following earnings, Karp said ,”You don’t have to buy our shares.”
“We’re happy,” he said. “We’re going to partner with the world’s best people and we’re going to dominate. You can be along for the ride or you don’t have to be.”
The company has also faced backlash over its work with government agencies like U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and Karp has admitted that his strong pro-Israel stance led some people to leave the company.
The boisterous CEO has been particularly vocal this week. On Monday’s earnings call, he questioned how happy the people are who didn’t invest in the company, and told them to “get some popcorn.”
And on CNBC he aimed much of his ire at Burry after the investor revealed his short positions in Palantir and Nvidia.
“The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money, which is super weird,” Karp told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is bats— crazy.”
In this Club Check-in, CNBC’s Paulina Likos and Zev Fima break down big tech’s massive artificial intelligence spending spree — debating whether these billion-dollar bets will drive long-term cost savings or weigh on near-term returns.
Mega-cap tech companies are shelling out billions of dollars to build out AI infrastructure. The big question we’re asking is whether all this heavy spending will eventually pay off in efficiency or if Wall Street is right to worry about how much they’re burning through in the short term.
Concerns about AI-stock valuations seeped into the market this week and slammed stocks.
Many major tech companies —including the three biggest clouds, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet‘s Google — raised capital expenditure guidance this earnings season, sparking both investor optimism and concern.
Zev Fima, portfolio analyst for the Club, argued the spending is justified: “Too much focus on the short-term is what leads to falling behind in the long term.” CNBC reporter Paulina Likos pushed back, noting that “investors haven’t seen efficiency gains show up in returns yet.”
Watch the video above to see where the debate played out on whether AI investments are real productivity drivers or just expensive promises until proven otherwise.
(See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio used by the CNBC Investing Club.)
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Affirm CEO Max Levchin said Friday that while the buy now, pay later firm isn’t seeing credit stress among federally employed borrowers due to the government shutdown, there are signs of a change in shopping habits.
“We are seeing a very subtle loss of interest in shopping just for that group, and a couple of basis points,” Levchin told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
At least 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed in the shutdown, and about 730,000 are working without pay, the Bipartisan Policy Center said this week.
Levchin said he’s closely watching employment data for signs of major disruptions, but the company is “capable” of adjusting credit standards when needed.
“Right now, things are just fine,” he said. “We’re not seeing any major disturbances at all.”
The federal funding lapse, which began Oct. 1, is the longest in U.S. history and has halted work across agencies with an impact beyond those who are government employees. The SNAP food benefit program, which serves 42 million Americans, has also been cut off.
Read more CNBC tech news
The comments from Levchin followed a fiscal first-quarter earnings report that blew past Wall Street’s estimates. Affirm posted earnings of 23 cents per share on $933 million in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG expected earnings of 11 cents per share on $883 million in sales.
Revenues climbed 34% from a year ago, while gross merchandise volumes jumped 42% to $10.8 billion from $7.6 billion a year ago. That surpassed Wall Street’s $10.38 billion estimate.
The fintech company, which went public in 2021, also lifted its full-year outlook, saying it now expects gross merchandise volume to hit $47.5 billion, versus prior guidance of $46 billion.
Affirm also said it renewed its partnership with Amazon through 2031. The company has also inked deals with the likes of Shopify and Apple in a competitive e-commerce landscape.
Levchin said categories such as ticketing and travel have seen an uptick in interest, and consumer shopping remains strong. Active consumers grew to 24.1 million from 19.5 million a year ago.
“We’re every single day out there preaching the gospel of buy now, pay later being the better way to buy, and consumers are obviously responding,” he said.