Keir Starmer must wait longer for his ‘99%’ moment – but Labour desperate to avoid election complacency
No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.
Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?
Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.
No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.
Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.
Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency
At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.
It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.
The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.
Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.
And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.
Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.
Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.
Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters
The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.
In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.
That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.
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Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.
In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.
Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.
Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.
Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA
By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.
The Conservatives have higher hopes elsewhere following the de facto bankruptcy of Birmingham Council.
It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.
Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.
One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.
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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.
In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.
Labour’s will to win
On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.
The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.
Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.
There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.
Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA
Greater Manchester Police have reopened their inquiries into deputy leader Angela Rayner’s alleged non-payment of capital gains tax on her home.
Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.
Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.
In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences
As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.
If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.
Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.
Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.
No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.
Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.
Politics
Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child ‘influencers’, senior MP suggests
Laws may need to be strengthened to crack down on the exploitation of child “influencers”, a senior Labour MP has warned.
Chi Onwurah, chair of the science, technology and innovation committee, said parts of the Online Safety Act – passed in October 2023 – may already be “obsolete or inadequate”.
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Experts have raised concerns that there is a lack of provision in industry laws for children who earn money through brand collaborations on social media when compared to child actors and models.
This has led to some children advertising in their underwear on social media, one expert has claimed.
Those working in more traditional entertainment fields are safeguarded by performance laws, which strictly govern the hours a minor can work, the money they earn and who they are accompanied by.
The Child Influencer Project, which has curated the world’s first industry guidelines for the group, has warned of a “large gap in UK law” which is not sufficiently filled by new online safety legislation.
Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant
The group’s research found that child influencers could be exposed to as many as 20 different risks of harm, including to dignity, identity, family life, education, and their health and safety.
Ms Onwurah told Sky News there needs to be a “much clearer understanding of the nature of child influencers ‘work’ and the legal and regulatory framework around it”.
She said: “The safety and welfare of children are at the heart of the Online Safety Act and rightly so.
“However, as we know in a number of areas the act may already be obsolete or inadequate due to the lack of foresight and rigour of the last government.”
Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for science, innovation and technology, agreed that regulations “need to keep pace with the times”, with child influencers on social media “protected in the same way” as child actors or models.
“Liberal Democrats would welcome steps to strengthen the Online Safety Act on this front,” she added.
‘Something has to be done’
MPs warned in 2022 that the government should “urgently address the gap in UK child labour and performance regulation that is leaving child influencers without protection”.
They asked for new laws on working hours and conditions, a mandate for the protection of the child’s earnings, a right to erasure and to bring child labour arrangements under the oversight of local authorities.
However, Dr Francis Rees, the principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, told Sky News that even after the implementation of the Online Safety Act, “there’s still a lot wanting”.
“Something has to be done to make brands more aware of their own duty of care towards kids in this arena,” she said.
Dr Rees added that achieving performances from children on social media “can involve extremely coercive and disruptive practices”.
“We simply have to do more to protect these children who have very little say or understanding of what is really happening. Most are left without a voice and without a choice.”
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The researcher pointed to one particular instance, in which children were advertising an underwear brand on social media.
She said: “The kids in the company’s own marketing material or their own media campaigns are either pulling up the band of the underwear underneath their clothing, or they’re holding the underwear up while they’re fully clothed.
“But whenever you look at any of the sponsored content produced by families with children – mum, dad, and child are in their underwear.”
Dr Rees said it is “night and day” in terms of how companies are behaving when they have responsibility for the material, versus “the lack of responsibility once they hand it over to parents with kids”.
One of Arizona’s crypto reserve bills has been passed by the House and is now one successful vote away from heading to the governor’s desk for official approval.
Arizona’s Strategic Digital Assets Reserve Bill (SB 1373) was approved on April 17 by the House Committee of the Whole, which involves 60 House members weighing in on the bill before a third and final reading and a full floor vote.
SB 1373 seeks to establish a Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund made up of digital assets seized through criminal proceedings to be managed by the state’s treasurer.
Arizona’s treasurer would be permitted to invest up to 10% of the fund’s total monies in any fiscal year in digital assets. The treasurer would also be able to loan the fund’s assets in order to increase returns, provided it doesn’t increase financial risks.
However, a Senate-approved SB 1373 may be set back by Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, who recently pledged to veto all bills until the legislature passes a bill for disability funding.
Hobbs also has a history of vetoing bills before the House and has vetoed 15 bills sent to her desk this week alone.
Arizona is the new leader in the state Bitcoin reserve race
SB 1373 has been passing through Arizona’s legislature alongside the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB 1025), which only includes Bitcoin (BTC).
The bill proposes allowing Arizona’s treasury and state retirement system to invest up to 10% of the available funds into Bitcoin.
SB 1025 also passed Arizona’s House Committee of the Whole on April 1 and is awaiting a full floor vote.
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Utah passed Bitcoin legislation on March 7 but scrapped the cornerstone provision establishing the Bitcoin reserve in the final reading.
The Texas Senate passed a Bitcoin reserve bill on March 6, while a similar bill recently passed through New Hampshire’s House.
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Slovenia’s Finance Ministry is considering a possible 25% tax on crypto trading profits for residents in the country under a new draft law now open for public consultation.
The bill proposes to tax traders when they sell their cryptocurrency for fiat or pay for goods and services, but crypto-to-crypto and transfers between wallets owned by the same user will be exempt, Slovenia’s Finance Ministry said in an April 17 statement.
Under the proposed legislation, crypto tax will be aligned with existing tax laws. Slovenia taxpayers will be required to keep a record of all their transactions for annual tax returns. The tax base would be calculated on profits by subtracting the purchase price from the sale price.
In a statement to the Slovenia Times, finance minister Klemen Boštjančič said it’s unreasonable that crypto trading for individuals isn’t currently taxed in the country.
“The goal of taxation of crypto assets is not to generate tax revenue, but we find it illogical and unreasonable that one of the most speculative financial instruments is not taxed at all,” he said in a statement translated from Slovenian.
New tax could stifle crypto in Slovenia, lawmaker says
Jernej Vrtovec, a member of Slovenia’s national assembly and New Slovenia opposition party, slammed the proposal in an April 16 statement to X, arguing it could stifle crypto growth in the country.
“Slovenia has the opportunity to become a crypto-friendly country, but with the government’s proposals, we will miss the train again,” he said in a post also translated from Slovenian.
“With excessive taxation, we will once again see young people and capital fleeing abroad. Taxes should encourage, not stifle.”
The proposal is open to public consultation until May 5. If Slovenian lawmakers pass the bill, it will go into effect on Jan. 1, 2026.
Slovenia introduced a 10% tax on crypto withdrawals and payments in 2023, but capital gains from occasional crypto trading are not taxed, according to the crypto tax platform Token Tax.
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Crypto activity can also currently be exempt from tax if it’s considered a hobby. Business activity, such as mining or staking, is subject to income tax.
A previous bill proposed in April 2022 planned to levy a 5% tax on profits over 10,000 euros ($11,372), but it was never passed into law.
Slovenia issued the first digital sovereign bond in the European Union on July 25 last year. It had a nominal size of 30 million euros ($32.5 million) with a 3.65% coupon and a maturity date of Nov. 25 that year.
The number of crypto users in Slovenia is projected to reach roughly 98,000 in 2025, according to online data platform Statista, with a penetration rate of 4.6% among its population of 2.12 million people. While the projected revenue for the country’s crypto market is slated to hit $2.8 million.
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