Keir Starmer must wait longer for his ‘99%’ moment – but Labour desperate to avoid election complacency
No wonder the Labour Party is desperate for a general election now and bitterly disappointed that Rishi Sunak has “bottled it”, in Keir Starmer’s words, and is sticking to his plan not to hold it until the autumn at the earliest.
Sir John Curtice, the UK polling guru, has gone on the record that there is “a 99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
What could possibly go wrong for Labour between now and the verdict of the voters?
Curtice’s one-in-a-hundred chance of falling short is comforting for Sir Keir Starmer, but nobody around him is treating victory as a done deal.
No one has slipped up in the way Cherie Blair did in the run-up to the 1997 election when she chatted to ITN’s political editor about “when” not “if” the family would be in Downing Street.
Party workers of all kinds, including the shadow cabinet, regional organisers, special advisers and press officers are being summoned to HQ for “no complacency” pep talks.
Sir Keir’s worries are dwarfed by the problems facing the Tories. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s 2016 win is a warning against complacency
At the start of the year, Starmer’s campaign manager Morgan McSweeney even produced a slide pack on the theme “polls do not predict the future”.
It listed recent examples from Australia, Germany and Norway, among others, where a party’s sustained lead in opinion polls did not deliver on the day. Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 being Exhibit A.
The country is three months further on from then and three months closer to the election.
Labour has sustained its remarkable lead of around 18 points for another three months, a gap that has been that wide for two years since Boris Johnson hit the skids.
And any local difficulties for Starmer are dwarfed by continuing troubles for the Tories.
Even as he tries to point to slightly improving economic circumstances, Rishi Sunak has been beset by further resignations.
Nevertheless, the Labour leadership is braced for a “narrowing in the polls”.
Some believe the PM will hold the election on his two-year anniversary. Pic: Reuters
The local elections in England and Wales on 2 May will be a big test of “real votes in real ballot boxes”, which politicians always say they prefer to polls.
In the last set of these elections, the Conservatives were on a high with a vote share calculated at 40%, with Labour on 30%. Those tables need to be more than reversed if Labour is to live up to its advanced billing, with the Tories dropping towards a vote share in the low 20s.
That would mean the Conservatives losing around 500 seats net – more than half of those they currently hold.
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Public interest, like voter turnout, tends to be higher in the big mayoral contests.
In London, the government has changed the rules to first past the post to damage the chances of Labour’s Sadiq Khan winning a third term.
Some Conservative campaigners are also playing dirty against him – as shown by a grim online video this week containing shots taken from New York City backed up with questionable presentation of crime statistics.
Khan says this is his hardest election but it seems unlikely that he will be defeated by Susan Hall, the Tory candidate in the capital’s mayoral race.
Khan’s ULEZ policy caused anger but he’ll probably keep his job. Pic: PA
By any measure, it would be a major shock if Labour fails to win back Blackpool South in the parliamentary by-election, which the Conservatives hope to bury in the excitement of local elections day.
The Conservatives have higher hopes elsewhere following the de facto bankruptcy of Birmingham Council.
It would be a grave blow to them if Andy Street is not re-elected as mayor of the West Midlands. Especially if coupled with defeat in the Tees Valley for Sunak’s controversial poster boy Lord (Ben) Houchen.
Conversely, should Labour underperform and the Tories hang on to some trophy mayors, there is renewed speculation that Sunak might be tempted to go for a general election in June. Not everyone agrees.
One grandee from the John Major years observed “it is very difficult to persuade a prime minister to lose now because he’ll only lose worse later”.
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A summer general election could come about another way if the Conservative local election performance is very bad.
In that scenario, Sunak’s allies expect him to go to the country rather than face a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs.
Labour’s will to win
On the assumption that the government struggles on through the summer, parliament is set to finalise the Rwanda deportation legislation when they return from their Easter break in mid-April.
The Conservatives are hoping for a boost in popularity if a flight gets off soon after that – or at least to reduce the threat from Reform and others on the right.
Sir Keir Starmer is also likely to find himself dealing with fractious elements in his party over the summer. There is no sign of peace in either of the conflict zones of Israel-Gaza or Ukraine-Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn and his backers do not share Starmer’s instincts in either conflict.
There are many pro-Palestinians among Labour’s likely voters. A divisive decision on whether to re-instate Diane Abbott in the party is looming, as is the choice of Labour candidate to stand in Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.
Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax affairs are being investigated by police. Pic: PA
Greater Manchester Police have reopened their inquiries into deputy leader Angela Rayner’s alleged non-payment of capital gains tax on her home.
Labour’s will to win is currently as strong as the Conservatives’ is weak. That and, firm discipline from the leadership, should keep the party broadly united.
Some on both left and right will continue to speak up – amplified by the many Tory sympathisers in the media.
In the space of a few days this week, the left-wing polemicist Owen Jones publicised his resignation from Labour and Peter Mandelson fired a warning shot on behalf of business against Rayner’s proposed new deal for workers.
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The likely dates PM will go to polls after rocky conferences
As things stand, the party conference season should go ahead as normal in September.
If they run true to form, any Labour discontent will bubble to the surface in Liverpool, while the Conservatives will try to use Birmingham to launch their general election campaign.
Some expect Sunak to use his leader’s speech to confirm polling day as Thursday 24 October – the day when he will chalk up precisely two years as prime minister.
Two hardened former cabinet ministers told me their working assumption is that it will not be until the 14 or 21 November, after the US election on 5 November. If it is Trump, he is bound to stick his oar into UK politics.
No prime minister, I am assured, would ruin Christmas by holding out until the last legal date in late January 2025 but, in extremis, 19 December this year remains a possibility, in the hope of repeating some of Boris Johnson‘s 2019 differential turnout coup.
Better late than never. It looks as if Sir Keir Starmer still has many months to navigate through until the Curtice-promised land of that general election.
Tulip Siddiq has sought to distance herself from her aunt, deposed Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, claiming they never spoke about politics.
But Sky News can reveal that in a blog written by the now City minister she boasted about how close they were politically and published photos of them together.
In posts written in late 2008 and early 2009, when she was a Labour activist, Ms Siddiq described campaigning with her aunt in Bangladesh’s general election and celebrating her victory.
Our disclosure coincides with a new report in The Times which reveals how the embattled MP’s Labour Party flyers were found in the palace in Dhaka that belonged to her aunt, who was ousted in a coup last year.
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Labour’s Tulip Siddiq risks losing job
The blog is headed: “Tulip Siddiq, member of the Labour Party action team in Bloomsbury and King’s Cross”, and in a post on January 11, 2009, Ms Siddiq told supporters: “I was really busy in Bangladesh as you probably gathered…
“I’ve put up photos of Sheikh Hasina’s post-election press conference at Bangladesh-China Friendship Conference Centre in Dhaka.
“The most significant element of this press conference for me was Sheikh Hasina’s insistence that all the political parties in Bangladesh need to work together for the welfare of the country.
“It is no secret that past governments have not worked with the other political parties and we need to change this trend.
“The prime minister emphasised that the Awami League does not support the ‘politics of vengeance’ which is encouraging so let’s hope that a new political culture is created this year.”
She added: “Here’s an action shot of me with the prime minister at the press conference. I’m not sure what I was saying but it probably wasn’t that interesting!”
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‘Tulip Siddiq will lose job if she broke rules’
In a post on January 21, 2009, she wrote: “I was fortunate enough to travel with Sheikh Hasina in her car during election day.
“The prime minister-elect (Prime Ministerial candidate at the time!) drove to several constituencies in Dhaka and stopped quickly at each one to meet the parliamentary candidate or speak to the voters.”
Describing traveling in her aunt’s car, she wrote: “You can see all my photos from election day here… I apologise for the poor quality of some of the pictures. I was taking photos from inside her car which is actually quite difficult!”
“You’ll also see a photo of Dhaka Central Jail. I took that photo because Sheikh Hasina told me that this jail was practically her second home for most of her childhood as her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was under arrest for many years.
“She told me that she visited him with the rest of her family every weekend, so it was a very familiar landmark.”
Earlier, on December 29, 2008, under the heading “Victory!”, Ms Siddiq wrote: “The Awami League have won the elections by a landslide! Sheikh Hasina is the prime minister-elect! I am ecstatic!
“I’ve been on the campaign trail with Sheikh Hasina all day so I don’t really have the energy to write much more but I will do so tomorrow.
“However, I can’t resist uploading a couple of photos. This is Sheikh Hasina’s face just before she heard the results from an unwinnable constituency.
“Here she is after she heard that the Awami League hard work had paid off in that seat.”
The Times reports that political literature of Ms Siddiq, Sir Keir Starmer’s anti-corruption minister, was found at the heavily guarded palace in Dhaka, covered by dust and debris.
At the top of a staircase were items produced by Ms Sidddiq. One was a thank you note to local Labour Party members following her election as MP for Hampstead and Kilburn.
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Another was her annual report for 2022, inviting readers to learn about her help for those affected by the cost-of-living crisis.
The new disclosures will pile further pressure on Ms Siddiq and lead to further calls on the prime minister to sack her.
Many Labour MPs believe her ministerial career is now hanging by a thread.
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On Sky News earlier, cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Trevor Phillips Ms Siddiq was right to submit herself to an ethics investigation over corruption allegations and strongly hinted she would be sacked if found to have broken the ministerial code.
Asked whether she should stand down until she is cleared of impropriety, Mr Kyle said: “I think she’s done exactly the right thing. She’s referred herself that the inquiry needs to go through. I think that that’s the appropriate way forward.
“I’m giving it all the space it needs to do. I’ll be listening for the outcome as the Prime Minister will be.
“There was a process underway and we know full well it will be a functional process, and the outcomes of it will be stuck to by the prime minister and this government, a complete contrast to what we’ve had in the past.”
Sky News has approached Ms Siddiq and the Labour Party for comment.
There comes a point in the arc of most political scandals after which a resignation risks prompting more questions than it answers.
The danger for Tulip Siddiq – and by extension Sir Keir Starmer – is that threshold may about to be passed, if it hasn’t been already.
In other words, if she goes now, plenty will wonder why it didn’t happen sooner and why Downing Street allowed the story to gather pace and inflict further damage before acting.
The answer to this is partly because nothing has emerged so far that’s such an explicit rule break that it would trigger an automatic sacking or resignation.
That means the affair still resides – just about – in the box marked “looks bad” rather than the more sinister one marked “is bad”.
The standards adviser has been asked to “establish the facts” – a classic political technique to try and smother a story by announcing an inquiry.
Read more:
Siddiq refers herself to ethics watchdog
Minister caught up in anti-corruption probe
Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Sky News the outcome of that exercise “will be stuck to”, meaning the junior Treasury minister will be relieved of her responsibilities if a breach of the government’s code of conduct is identified.
But some within Labour are contrasting this case with the rapid resignation of Louise Haigh as transport secretary after Sky News revealed she had pleaded guilty to an offence in court shortly before becoming an MP.
They suggest the key difference is that Ms Haigh was relatively left-wing and at odds with some in Downing Street, while Ms Siddiq is a constituency neighbour and ally of the prime minister.
“Keir Starmer has been consistently ruthless against people perceived to be more on the left of the party and very lenient with people perceived to be more on the right of the party,” said former Jeremy Corbyn adviser Andrew Fisher.
A counter to this is that Ms Siddiq is not a cabinet minister.
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Minister suggests Siddiq could lose job
That said, she does oversee efforts to combat financial crime, money laundering and corruption – three activities she is now finding herself linked to, albeit in a different country.
The fact she pulled out from the chancellor’s trip to China this weekend also opens an easy attack line that the story is already stopping her from doing her job.
So where does this go now?
There is a chance that something may emerge that forces an immediate departure.
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Engaging the standards adviser may also backfire if a technical breach potentially relating to declarations or conflicts of interest is found.
But a third option is potentially most damaging for the government – that Ms Siddiq becomes politically paralysed by the volume of stories surfacing and is forced to step down simply to stem the flow.
The government will “mainline AI into the veins” of the UK, with plans being unveiled today by Sir Keir Starmer.
The prime minister is set to promise investment, jobs and economic growth due to a boom in the sector.
It comes as his government battles against allegations they are mismanaging the economy and stymied growth with the budget last autumn.
The government’s announcement claims that, if AI is “fully embraced”, it could bring £47bn to the economy every year.
And it says that £14bn is set to be invested by the private sector, bringing around 13,000 jobs.
The majority of those would be construction roles to build new data centres and other infrastructure, with a smaller number of technical jobs once the work is finished.
Sir Keir said: “Artificial Intelligence will drive incredible change in our country. From teachers personalising lessons, to supporting small businesses with their record-keeping, to speeding up planning applications, it has the potential to transform the lives of working people.
“But the AI industry needs a government that is on their side, one that won’t sit back and let opportunities slip through its fingers. And in a world of fierce competition, we cannot stand by. We must move fast and take action to win the global race.”
The prime minister added that he wants Britain to be “the world leader” in AI.
The government announcement said: “Today’s plan mainlines AI into the veins of this enterprising nation.”
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To achieve this, the government will implement all 50 recommendations made by Matt Clifford following his review last year.
This includes creating new AI “growth zones” – the first of which is set to be in Culham, Oxfordshire, where the UK’s Atomic Energy Authority is based.
These zones will get faster planning decisions and extra power infrastructure.
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Is the AI boom turning into a market bubble?
The government also wants to increase UK computing power 20-fold by 2030, including by building a brand-new supercomputer.
Labour cancelled a planned supercomputer when it entered office, as it claimed it wasn’t funded. The new venture is expected to be a joint public-private project.
The government says its plans will have three pillars. This includes laying the foundations with new AI growth zones and the new supercomputer.
The second is to boost AI take up by the public and private sectors. New pilots for AI in the public service are set to be announced, and Sir Keir has written to all cabinet ministers, telling them to drive AI adoption and growth.
And the third pillar is keeping ahead of the pack, with the government set to establish a “team” to keep the UK “at the forefront of emerging technology”.
The announcement was welcomed by a slew of technology bosses.
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Chris Lehane, the chief global affairs officer at OpenAI, which released ChatGPT, said: “The government’s AI action plan – led by the prime minister and [Science] Secretary Peter Kyle – recognises where AI development is headed and sets the UK on the right path to benefit from its growth.
“The UK has an enormous national resource in the talent of its people, institutions and businesses which together, can leverage AI to advance the country’s national interest.”
The shadow secretary for science, innovation and technology, Alan Mak, said: “Labour’s plan will not support the UK to become a tech and science superpower. They’re delivering analogue government in a digital age.
“Shaping a successful AI future requires investment, but in the six months leading up to this plan, Labour cut £1.3bn in funding for Britain’s first next-generation supercomputer and AI research whilst imposing a national insurance jobs tax that will cost business in the digital sector £1.66bn.
“AI does have the potential to transform public services, but Labour’s economic mismanagement and uninspiring plan will mean Britain is left behind.”
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