The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war – but does it have the resolve?
Last spring, the mood in Ukraine was upbeat.
The West had rallied to President Zelenskyy’s call for military support to enable a spring offensive, and there was an air of optimism that Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was to be defeated.
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However, a year on, the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive failed to deliver any significant changes to the frontline, and 2024 started with Russia on the front foot in the Donbas.
Vital supplies of Western military aid to Ukraine are waning, and President Putin will feel emboldened by his recent election result and his growing military advantage over Ukraine.
Although the Ukrainian forces have proven brave and tenacious on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has the advantage of “mass”.
Western high-tech precision weapons provided the Ukrainian military with a crucial advantage against the Russian invaders; however, two years into the war, Western war chests have been emptied, and the future is now looking increasingly bleak for President Zelenskyy and his fellow Ukrainians.
Pic: Reuters
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine?
High-end warfare consumes huge quantities of ammunition and weapons and requires a rapid mobilisation of the established defence industrial base to provide both the quantity, and quality, of munitions required.
Although the West’s defence industrial base has a significantly greater potential than Russia, the West has been slow to invest.
In stark contrast, Russia’s defence industry is now three times the size it was at the start of the war, and Russia’s oil revenues are sustaining the flow of weapons from both North Korea and Iran.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Despite robust Western political rhetoric in support of Ukraine, actions speak louder than words, and Putin will feel emboldened by the West’s hesitancy over the level of commitment to combating Russian aggression.
Putin knows well that Russia has a significant military and economic advantage over Ukraine.
However, he also knows that Russia is no match for NATO or a concerted and determined Western campaign of military support for President Zelenskyy.
The question is whether Western support will continue at the level required.
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What is happening in Ukraine?
Putin’s threats resonate – even if he can’t risk NATO war
Putin has consistently threatened escalation in response to Western military aid to Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the West prevaricated about providing anti-tank weapons due to Putin’s threats.
However, the West eventually agreed to send modern tanks and then long-range missiles – such as Storm Shadow – despite a growing tirade of threats from Putin.
But even now, Russian threats of retaliation against Germany are delaying the supply of Taurus missiles.
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Putin knows he cannot afford to precipitate a war with NATO or the West, but his threats resonate with nervous Western leaders.
Ultimately, bullies such as Putin only respect strength and resolve.
If he were to subjugate Ukraine – eventually – his battle-hardened military, backed by a robust and sustainable defence industrial base, would hold a significant military advantage over any of Russia’s neighbours.
Unless the West shifts from appeasement to a robust defence of Ukraine, why would Putin stop?
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West could call Russia’s bluff to stop brutal war
Although there is no quick fix to the weapons crisis, the West does have other options available.
President Macron has consistently argued that the West should not rule out putting Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine.
This is not just about Western military personnel – such a move would also enable the West to deploy modern weapons that cannot be gifted to Ukraine for security reasons.
Also, the Russian air force has struggled to prevail over a significantly smaller and less capable Ukrainian air force, losing over 10% of its pre-war fighter jets.
If the West was to impose a No-Fly Zone over all or part of Ukraine, that would present a huge threat to the Russian military advance, and significantly tip the balance of power Ukraine’s way.
President Putin would recognise the significance of such a move and would increase his threatening rhetoric, but he knows that it is Russia that is responsible for the war and for invading a vulnerable neighbour.
Pic: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Reuters
Russia cannot risk an escalation – its military has been decimated by the war to date, and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if Russia itself is threatened.
Ultimately, this is all about the resolve and determination of Western political leaders.
Nobody wants to get embroiled in a brutal war, but history suggests that aggressors such as Putin will not desist unless they are robustly challenged.
The West has the capability to halt Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine, but does it have the political resolve?
World
Ron Benjamin: Body of Israeli hostage kidnapped during cycling trip on 7 October found in Gaza, IDF says
World
Update given on health condition of Slovakia’s PM – as suspect in court over attempted assassination
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico remains in a stable but serious condition as the man accused of attempting to assassinate him appeared in court for the first time.
Health minister Zuzana Dolinkova said further two-hour surgery on Friday “contributed to a positive prognosis” for the 59-year-old, who was shot five times at point blank range while greeting supporters in the former mining town of Handlova on Wednesday.
Pic: AP
However, although awake at the hospital in Banska Bystrica, where Mr Fico was taken by helicopter after being shot, his condition still made it impossible to transport him to the capital, Bratislava.
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Deputy prime minister Robert Kalinak has said there was no need to formally take over Mr Fico’s official duties.
The suspected gunman was tackled to the ground and arrested at the scene of the attack and the first assassination attempt of a European political leader for more than 20 years.
He has previously been named as 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, a former shopping centre security guard who also writes poetry.
The special criminal court in Pezinok, a small town outside the capital, Bratislava, was guarded by officers wearing balaclavas and carrying automatic weapons for his court appearance.
The media were kept at a distance. Pic: AP
News media were not allowed in for the hearing and reporters were kept behind a gate outside.
Officers had taken the suspect, who has been charged with attempted murder, to his home in the town of Levice on Friday and seized a computer and some documents, according to local media.
The attack sent shockwaves throughout Europe and raised concerns over the already polarised and febrile political situation in Slovakia.
Health minister Zuzana Dolinkova gave the latest update on the PM’s condition. Pic: Reuters
Mr Fico has long been a divisive figure.
His return to power last year on a pro-Russian, anti-American ticket fuelled worries among fellow EU and NATO members over the country’s direction.
Slovakia had previously been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, but on taking office Mr Fico halted arms supplies to the nation battling invading Russian forces.
Thousands of demonstrators have repeatedly rallied in the capital and around the country to protest against his policies.
The bodies of three Israeli hostage taken by Hamas have been recovered in Gaza.
The remains were discovered in an overnight operation carried out by Israel’s military and intelligence agency Shin Bet, said chief military spokesman Daniel Hagari.
Itzhak Gelerenter, 56, Amit Buskila, 28, and Shani Louk, 22, were killed at the Nova music festival on 7 October, with their bodies then taken into Gaza by Hamas militants.
Ms Louk’s body was seen face-down in a pick-up truck travelling through Gaza in a video that was shared widely on social media after the hostages were taken.
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Shani Louk
Itzhak Gelerenter
Amit Buskila
“They were celebrating life in the Nova music festival and they were murdered by Hamas,” said Mr Hagari.
He said their families have been notified.
“Our hearts go out to them, to the families at this difficult time. We will leave no stone unturned, we will do everything in our power to find our hostages and bring them home.”
The military did not give immediate details on where their bodies were found.
Ms Louk’s father has said the return of his daughter’s body to her family has been a form of closure.
Nissim Louk told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz his daughter “radiated light, to her and those who surrounded her, and in her death she still does”.
He added: “She is a symbol of the people of Israel, between light and darkness. Her inner and outer beauty that shone for all the world to see is a special one.”
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In November, the brother of Ms Louk told Sky News of their last phone call as his sister tried to escape Hamas.
Speaking about the video that was circulated online after she was taken, Amit Louk said: “I never thought I was going to be in contact with this type of video, seeing my sister in that brutal position.
“And just in that moment, the whole family just crashed.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the deaths “heartbreaking”, saying: “We will return all of our hostages, both the living and the dead.”
Meanwhile, Professor Hagai Levine, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, has said the recovery of the bodies is a “painful reminder” of those who are still in captivity.
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“We do not lose hope. We are preparing for the return of the hostages that are alive,” he added.
Israel has been operating in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, where it says it has intelligence that hostages are being held.
Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people, mainly civilians, and abducted around 250 others in the 7 October attack.
Around half of those have since been freed, most in swaps for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel during a ceasefire in November.
Israel says around 100 hostages are still captive in Gaza, along with the bodies of around 30 more.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza since the attack has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.
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Gaza situation ‘a complete disaster’
Mr Netanyahu has vowed to both eliminate Hamas and bring all the hostages back.
He faces pressure to resign, and the US has threatened to scale back its support over the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Israelis are divided into two main camps: those who want the government to put the war on hold and free the hostages, and others who think the hostages are an unfortunate price to pay for eradicating Hamas.
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