Govt has no national plan for defence of the UK in a war – despite renewed threats of conflict
The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, Sky News has learnt.
With ministers warning that Britain is moving to a “pre-war world” amid mounting concerns about Russia, China and Iran, it can be revealed that officials have started to develop a cross-government “national defence plan”.
But any shift back to a Cold War-style, ready-for-war-footing would require political leaders to make defence a genuinely national effort once again – rather than something that is just delivered by the armed forces, according to interviews with multiple defence sources, former senior officers and academics.
They said such a move would need a lot more investment in defence and much better communication with the public about the need for everyone to play their part in strengthening UK resilience and deterring aggression.
“We have to have a national defence plan,” a senior defence source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“It should involve what government arrangements would look like in the period before armed conflict and the transition to war.”
British soldiers during drills near Tapa, Estonia. Pic: AP
It can also be revealed:
• A two-day “war game” is set to take place next week, involving officials from the Ministry of Defence, Cabinet Office, Home Office and other departments, to talk through how the country would respond to an armed attack
• A paper is circulating in Whitehall that examines what can be learnt from an old but comprehensive system of plans called the Government War Book – now sitting in the National Archives – that once detailed how the UK would transition from peace to war
• Sources say lessons could also be drawn from how the UK mobilised its industrial base ahead of the Second World War when it created a network of “shadow factories” that vastly expanded production capacity for aircraft such as Spitfires
An RAF F-35B Lightning jet. Pic: PA
Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, used a speech in January to raise the spectre of a “pre-war world”.
He also forecast that in five years’ time “we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea”.
Given the warning signs, Sky News has decided to explore how prepared the UK government, its military and the entire nation are for the possibility of armed conflict.
We have also looked back at the last time Britain was in a pre-war world, in the five years before the Second World War that erupted in 1939, as well as how this country subsequently dealt with the possibility of World War 3, including nuclear attack, during the Cold War years.
In the first instalment of a series – called Prepared For War? – we visited the National Archives to view a Government War Book; travelled to an old nuclear bunker once part of a secret plan to support the nation in the event of nuclear war; and examined the legacy the World War 2 shadow factories, which built the weapons that helped defeat the Nazis.
Inside the nuclear bunker
‘The problem is, there is no plan’
Setting out the challenge, Keith Dear, a former regular Royal Air Force intelligence officer who worked as an adviser to the prime minister between 2020 and 2021, when Boris Johnson was in power, said he had been unable to find any kind of detailed plan for war while in government.
He said specific planning is required to explain “what we think could happen, and specifically who needs to do what, when, to respond effectively”.
In an exclusive article for Sky News, he wrote: “Such plans are essential not only to avoid scrambling disorder and early defeats, but also so that our adversaries, awed by our preparedness, are deterred from fighting in the first place.
“The problem is, there is no plan.”
Instead, defence sources said the UK today relies on its arsenal of nuclear weapons and membership of the NATO military alliance to deter threats.
“The government assumes deterrence will always work, but no one stops to ask: what if it doesn’t?” the senior defence source claimed.
Deborah Haynes examines a holographic map
The apparent lack of a national defence plan means the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force – let alone the readiness of the civilian population and industrial base – are not designed to fight an enduring war of survival, the defence sources said.
“Our air defence [the ability to fend off incoming enemy missiles and drones] is dangerously thin and coastal defence is all-but non-existent,” the senior defence source said.
There is also a shortage of weapons and ammunition, while the size of all three services, both regular and reserve, is a fraction of the force that was kept at a high level of readiness during the Cold War in case of World War Three.
General Sir Richard Barrons, a former top commander, said he raised the idea inside government just over a decade ago about the need to rebuild national defence and resilience because of a growing threat from Moscow.
But “the implications of thinking about the revitalisation of a risk from Russia were unpalatable and expensive and denial – frankly – was cheaper”, he said.
General Sir Richard Barrons speaks to Deborah Haynes
War books
In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, NATO refreshed its war plans for defending the whole of the now 32-nation alliance.
But the UK used to have its own corresponding set of national plans – set out in the Government War Book – that would trigger certain internal measures if the alliance decided to transition from peace to war.
Sky News looked at a preview war book
A 1976 copy of the war book – a large bundle of hand-typed pages, bound together by string – offered a sense of how seriously the UK once took national defence planning.
Stored at the National Archives in Kew, west London, the war book contained detailed lists and signposted the way to complementary plans about how to mobilise not just the military but also civilians and industry in a crisis as well as shutting schools, clearing hospitals, rationing food and even storing national treasures.
The war book contains plans for different eventualities
Conceived around the end of the First World War, the government’s collection of top secret, regularly rehearsed and updated war books ensured by the height of the Cold War the UK was one of the best prepared nations in the world – and most resilient.
That all changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union as Western governments no longer felt the existential threat of global war.
By the early 2000s, the entire UK war book system, which cost a lot to maintain, was quietly shelved as the then government’s focus switched to the threat from Islamist terrorism and fighting foreign wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
It means most senior officials in today’s Whitehall will barely have any professional memory of how the state functioned during the Cold War years, let alone the two world wars.
Jonathan Boff, a professor of military history at Birmingham University, said the UK should think about producing a modern-day version of the war books.
“Some of that kind of thinking – the thinking that takes you from: we don’t need to worry about any of that to: actually if we did want to worry about that, how might we do it? – I think that’s really important,” he said.
HMS Prince of Wales leads a formation of 15 ships. Pic: MOD/AP
Risk register and intelligence framework
Asked about the allegation that the UK has no national plan for the outbreak of war, a spokesperson for the Cabinet Office said the country has “robust plans in place for a range of potential emergencies and scenarios with plans and supporting arrangements developed, refined and tested over many years”.
This includes the Civil Contingencies Act, a government resilience framework, a National Risk Register and a strengthening of ties with a network of local resilience forums across the country that are tasked with responding to emergencies. There is also a new directorate in the Cabinet Office tasked with further enhancing resilience.
Pilots of RAF F-35B Lightning jets. Pic: PA
“As part of broad emergency response capabilities, all local resilience forums have plans in place to respond to a range of scenarios,” the spokesperson said.
“The government continues to review the risk landscape, including threats to the UK from overseas.”
Yet a flick through the National Risk Register offers a lot more information on floods, pandemics, terrorism and cyber attacks than what to do in the event of war.
A number of local resilience forums approached by Sky News also confirmed that they do not have specific war plans or planning for a nuclear strike – something that would have been a top priority for local governments during the Cold War.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Shadow factories
The funding priorities for many NATO allies, including the UK, changed following the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, with investment switching away from defence to areas such as health and social services – more popular in peacetime.
This has started to be reversed following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but defence sources said it must happen with much greater urgency – especially as Russia is on a war footing and has even threatened the use of nuclear weapons.
Back in 1935, when war with Adolf Hitler’s Germany was looming, the UK began rapidly growing its manufacturing base to build more aircraft, converting automotive plants to produce Spitfires, Hurricanes, Lancaster bombers and other kit.
‘Shadow factories’ were set up in the 1930s
A programme, called the “shadow scheme”, under the then Air Ministry, saw the construction of “shadow factories” next to existing automotive-turned-aircraft plants.
But the UK’s manufacturing landscape has consolidated in recent years, while many weapons are imported, making it harder to revive sovereign industrial capacity at speed.
Keith Dear, the former Downing Street adviser, pointed at the difficulties Britain has had increasing the production of artillery shells and other ammunition to support Ukraine.
“Our inability to supply anything like enough munitions or weapons to Ukraine, shows also how hollowed out we have become by buying and building armed forces to no coherent war-fighting plan,” he wrote. “Weapons without ammunition are useless.”
A Royal Navy Merlin helicopter fires flares during a NATO exercise. Pic: Reuters
‘We aren’t ready – but don’t tell Putin’
Southampton is a reminder of the UK’s former wartime resilience.
The home of the Spitfire, production lines were dispersed around the city after German bombers attacked its two main aircraft factories early on in the Second World War.
Today, Alan Matlock, a local man, heads a group called the Spitfire Makers Charitable Trust that raises awareness about the historic bravery of Southampton’s residents.
“The frontline did run through these factories,” he said. “And there were a large number [of people] who paid the ultimate price.”
Vera Saxby, who turns 100 in August, decided to do secretarial work for a company that made parts for Spitfires during the war after a German bomb exploded in her garden.
“We really thought we were doing something good,” she said.
Former Spitfire worker Vera Saxby
However, resting in an armchair in her house in a Southampton suburb, Mrs Saxby said she did not think Britain was very resilient anymore – pointing in particular to the reduction in heavy industry, such as steel works and car plants that were so vital during the last war.
Asked if it was worrying, Mrs Saxby said: “Well it is but I’m too old to worry anymore… I can’t see how we would defend ourselves – but don’t tell Putin that.”
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence said: “We have a range of plans in place to secure and defend the country, which are reviewed and adapted in response to international security developments… These plans will be integrated as part of our contribution to ongoing work to develop a cross-government National Defence Plan, which will further enhance our preparedness and strengthen our deterrence for the future.”
Finnish police have seized more than $2.6 million worth of luxury watches from Hex founder Richard Heart, who is wanted on tax fraud and assault charges in the country.
Judge Katherine Failla granted Coinbase’s request for an interlocutory appeal, citing different courts’ interpretations of what constituted a security under the SEC’s purview.
Politics
Grooming gangs scandal timeline: What happened, what inquiries there were and how Starmer was involved – after Elon Musk’s accusations
The grooming gangs scandal is back in the headlines after Elon Musk attacked Sir Keir Starmer and minister Jess Phillips for failing children.
The tech billionaire has accused Sir Keir of being “complicit” in the failure of authorities to protect victims and prosecute abusers while the PM was director of public prosecutions from 2008-2013.
Sir Keir has hit back at Musk, saying his record shows how he tackled the issue head-on.
Politics latest: Former child abuse inquiry chair says new inquiry not needed
The row started after it was revealed last week safeguarding minister Jess Phillips rejected calls from Oldham Council for a government inquiry into historical grooming gangs in the town, with Ms Phillips saying the council should lead an inquiry instead.
She has since hit back after Mr Musk’s subsequent attacks on her.
Sky News looks at a timeline of the grooming gangs scandal, inquiries and Sir Keir’s role.
How did the grooming gangs scandal unfold and what prosecutions have there been?
2001: Names of taxi drivers who allegedly picked up girls from care homes in Rotherham to abuse them are passed to the police and council from 2001. The first convictions were not until 2010, with the latest in 2024 – a total of 61.
2004: A Channel 4 documentary about claims young white girls in Bradford were being groomed for sex by Asian abusers is delayed as police forces warn it could inflame racial tensions. It was finally shown three months later.
2010: 11 men, predominantly of an Asian background, are convicted of offences connected with the sexual exploitation of children in Derbyshire.
2011: Times journalist Andrew Norfolk starts receiving tip-offs about child sexual exploitation by predominantly Asian men in Rotherham. It was his insistence on pursuing the story, despite being called racist and concerns the far-right would latch on to it, that eventually led to a national inquiry.
2011: A girl abused by a grooming gang in Huddersfield writes a letter to a judge about the abuse she had suffered. It was not until 2013 that another victim came forward to police to make formal allegations, then dozens of girls and men were interviewed over the next three years. Victims and their families said they repeatedly told police and authorities but nothing happened.
2011: Operation Bullfinch is launched by the police and council in Oxford to look into a child sex abuse ring in the city. The first convictions are secured in May 2013, then 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020.
May 2012: The first grooming gangs convictions of men from Rochdale and Oldham see nine found guilty of being part of a child sexual exploitation ring run out of two takeaways in Greater Manchester since 2008. A further five from the Rochdale area were jailed the following year.
May 2013: Seven men have been jailed, it emerges, at the conclusion of child sex abuse trials relating to offences in the Telford area.
Elon Musk has accused Sir Keir of being complicit in the cover up of grooming gangs. File pic: Reuters
2014: 13 men are convicted of the sexual exploitation of children in Bristol at the conclusion of Operation Brooke.
2017: A total of 29 men from a Huddersfield grooming gang are charged but a reporting restriction prevents media from reporting on the case to avoid prejudicing other cases. The ban was criticised by far-right groups, with Tommy Robinson – also known as Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – jailed for 13 months (later reduced to nine months) after admitting contempt for filming outside a court during the trial.
2018: Twenty men, mainly of Pakistani origin but the ringleader was Sikh, who were part of the Huddersfield child sex abuse ring are convicted of 120 rape and abuse offences against 15 girls, and sentenced to a total of 221 years.
Three separate trials had to be held as there were so many of them. More men have been convicted since then, bringing the total number to 41 by August 2021.
2023: A Grooming Gangs Taskforce is set up by Rishi Sunak’s government, with qualified officers from all 43 police forces in England and Wales, and data analysts. In May 2024, 550 suspects had been arrested and 4,000 victims identified.
2023: Nine further men are charged with sexual offences in Rotherham under Operation Stovewood. Most of the offences took place between 2003 and 2008.
2024: Operation Stovewood sees 11 more men from Rotherham convicted for the abuse of vulnerable girls.
Read more:
Failure to report child sex abuse to become criminal offence
The child abuse inquiry will only protect children if police have the resources
Child sexual exploitation: ‘I’d wake up with bruises up my legs’
Raped at gunpoint: Telford child abuse victims speak out
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Lies’ over grooming gangs
What inquiries have there been?
There have been 10 inquiries and reports into the grooming gangs.
2013: The Home Affairs Select Committee publishes a report into the Rochdale cases, finding the failure to protect children fell to police, social workers and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) prosecutors.
2014: An inquiry into grooming gangs in Rotherham, led by Professor Alexis Jay and commissioned by the council in 2013, finds 1,400 children were sexually abused between 1997 and 2013 by predominantly British-Pakistani men.
Then home secretary Theresa May commissions the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse in England and Wales following the Jimmy Savile scandal. Professor Jay became the chair after three others resigned.
Professor Alexis Jay chaired the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse
2015: A West Midlands Police report from 2010 is released publicly after a Freedom of Information request by the Birmingham Mail.
It shows police knew five years before that Asian grooming gangs were targeting children outside schools in Birmingham but were worried about community tensions if it was made public.
2015: A report into Rotherham Council’s handling of child sexual abuse, commissioned by the government and led by Baroness Casey, finds the council had a bullying, sexist culture of covering up information and silencing whistleblowers.
A new police inquiry into child sexual abuse in Rotherham is launched, with 19 men and two women convicted in 2016 and 2017 of sexual offences dating back to the late 1980s.
Former detective Maggie Oliver became a whistleblower for victims. Pic: PA
2015: A serious case review by Oxfordshire Safeguarding Children’s Partnership finds 373 children (including 50 boys) could have been groomed and sexually exploited in the city. It accused Thames Valley Police of not believing children when they complained.
2019: An independent review into historic child sexual exploitation in Oldham shisha bars from 2011 to 2014 is commissioned by Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham after Oldham council requested it.
2020: The Home Office refuses to release research into grooming gangs as it said it is not in the public interest. Following public pressure it releases the report, which finds no credible evidence any one ethnic group is over represented in child sexual exploitation. It is branded a whitewash by critics.
2022: The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse by Professor Jay is published after 12 years. It finds police and councils downplayed the scale of the problem and children were often blamed for their abuse.
It makes recommendations, including mandatory reporting of child sexual abuse by people working with children, the establishment of a national financial compensation scheme for victims “let down by institutions” and the creation of a child protection authority.
Several inquiries have found grooming gang victims were not believed and there were fears of racism accusations. File pic
2022: Oldham councillors called for a government inquiry into grooming gangs in the town but the Conservative government rejected it and said the local authority should commission a review.
2022: Greater Manchester’s inquiry into Oldham grooming gangs was released. It found the police and council failed to protect vulnerable children and covered up their failings.
2022: The Telford independent inquiry was published and found more than 1,000 children in the town were sexually exploited and the abuse was allowed to continue for years, with children often blamed.
The inquiry found issues were not investigated because of nervousness about race, with teachers and youth workers discouraged from reporting child sexual exploitation.
2024: Oldham councillors again called for a government inquiry but safeguarding minister Jess Phillips said the council had to carry it out.
What is Sir Keir Starmer’s involvement?
2008-2013: Sir Keir Starmer was director of public prosecutions (DPP), head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) which conducts criminal prosecutions in England and Wales, for five years.
2009: The CPS was criticised for not prosecuting Rochdale grooming gang suspects in 2008 and 2009. It said the main victim was “unreliable” so dropped the case.
2010-2011: In that financial year, child sexual abuse prosecutions reached 4,794 – the highest during Sir Keir’s time as DPP. In 2016/17, nearly there were nearly 7,200 prosecutions.
2011: The decision to not prosecute in Rochdale was overturned by Nazir Afzal, chief prosecutor for northwest England, appointed by Sir Keir.
2013: A Home Affairs Committee report said unlike other agencies, the CPS had “readily admitted victims had been let down by them and have attempted both to discover the cause of this systemic failure and to improve the way things are done so as to avoid a repetition of such events”.
Keir Starmer and Elon Musk have been sparring over the PM’s role in the grooming gangs scandal. Pic: PA
The report added: “Mr Starmer has striven to improve the treatment of victims of sexual assault within the criminal justice system throughout his term as DPP.”
Maggie Oliver, a former Manchester detective and whistleblower, told the BBC the CPS “bears a great deal of responsibility for the failures around this issue”, including bringing inadequate charges and blaming victims.
2013: Sir Keir revised guidance on child sexual exploitation to make future prosecutions easier. Before, victims may not have been viewed as credible if they had not complained immediately, if they had used drugs or alcohol, or dressed and acted in particular ways.
2013: The Child Sexual Abuse Review Panel was created by Sir Keir to review CPS decisions not to bring charges or terminate proceedings after 5 June 2013.
What has Elon Musk said?
The billionaire, who posts on X, which he owns, many times every day, has also given a series of interviews, and has commented on the grooming gangs and child sex exploitation cases in the past. He has shown support for both Reform and Tommy Robinson and began to post about the grooming gangs scandal regularly, in response to others, in late December and early January.
31 December: In response to an X post referencing the grooming gangs and claiming “out of political correctness, the government did everything it could to cover up the crimes”, Mr Musk replied: “The government officials responsible, including those in the judiciary, need to fired in shame over this”
In response to a post that claimed that “Parents who attempted to rescue their children were arrested when the police arrived”, he said on X: “So many people at all levels of power in the UK need to be in prison for this.”
1 January: Then, after a series of other posts responding to people expressing similar views, including sympathy for Tommy Robinson and support for Reform, he responded to a post saying “Labour’s Jess Phillips, Minister for Safeguarding, refused to back a public inquiry into child exploitation in Oldham” by saying: “Shameful conduct by Jess Phillips. Throw her out.”
2 January: He responds to a poster by calling for a new election, then…
He posts: “In the UK, serious crimes such as rape require the Crown Prosecution Service’s approval for the police to charge suspects. Who was the head of the CPS when rape gangs were allowed to exploit young girls without facing justice? Keir Starmer, 2008 -2013
“Who is the boss of Jess Phillips right now? Keir Stamer. The real reason she’s refusing to investigate the rape gangs is that it would obviously lead to the blaming of Keir Stamer (head of the CPS at the time).”
Responding to a post criticising what someone called the legacy media, he said: “This is the same media that hid the fact that a quarter million little girls were – still are – being systematically raped by migrant gangs in Britain. They are beneath contempt. Despicable human beings.”
3 January: In response to a post talking about the cost of another public inquiry, he says: “No UK government inquiry for the gang rape of innocent little girls, but £22M spent on an obviously violent lunatic. Shame, shame, shame.”
He went on to accuse Keir Starmer of being “guilty of complicity” and accusing Jess Phillips of being a “rape genocide apologist”.
4 January: He responded to an article in The Daily Telegraph, which claimed to show how the grooming scandal was “covered up”, by saying “How the rape of Britain was covered up” and then later added: “The sniveling cowards who allowed the mass rape of little girls in Britain are still in power … for now”.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway