New attempts to oust Sunak could be ignited after mega poll – and Labour will take comfort in its findings

Published

1 year ago

April 3, 2024

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It was Margaret Thatcher who famously declared: “The only poll that matters is the general election.”

And over the years, many more party leaders have wisely repeated her cautious advice when confronted with huge opinion poll leads.

The Labour lead according to the latest YouGov MRP mega poll isn’t just big, however. It’s massive: a 154-seat majority for Sir Keir Starmer.

Not that the Labour leader will be popping any champagne corks or dreaming of moving into 10 Downing Street just yet.

Despite months of solid double opinion poll leads of up to 20%, Sir Keir has imposed an iron discipline on his inner circle and shadow cabinet members about the danger of complacency.

But there will be quiet satisfaction among the Labour high command that this latest mega poll confirms that the feared drop in the party’s poll lead over the Tories isn’t happening yet.

In fact, this YouGov MRP poll suggests that Labour is heading for a bigger majority than predicted in the last mega survey, back in mid-January, which forecast a 120-seat majority for Labour.

Another change from the mid-January poll is that the number of people polled is up from around 14,000 to nearly 19,000, a truly enormous sample.

But if Labour is reassured by these findings, the Conservatives will be plunged into yet another bout of blood-letting, open civil war and attempts to oust Rishi Sunak.

Optimism for the Tories?

Okay, let’s look at the most optimistic scenario for Mr Sunak and the Tories: that there are many thousand “don’t knows”, that Reform UK has peaked, and the waverers will return to the Conservatives.

One big health warning on the YouGov MRP poll is that it asked voters how they would vote if the election was held tomorrow. Well, it’s not going to be held tomorrow and may not be for more than six months.

On his electioneering tour of northeast England this week, Mr Sunak said he wants to hold the election when people “feel that things are improving” and repeated that he is planning to go to the polls in the second half of this year.

“I’ve said repeatedly and clearly that my working assumption would be that we have a general election in the second half of the year,” he told BBC Radio Newcastle. “There has been no change to that.”

The 154-seat Labour majority in the new poll is edging towards the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997, though well short of a 254-seat majority suggested in another MRP-style poll in mid-February.

Many of the new poll’s predictions will no doubt be queried by MPs and party officials, who will study its every detail in the hours and days ahead.

For example, many in the Labour high command will argue the prediction of 201 gains and 403 seats for Sir Keir is on the high side, given the Tories currently have a working majority of 53 in the Commons.

Labour’s ‘mountain to climb’

The SNP will surely dispute the projection they’re on course to lose 29 seats in Scotland, down to just 19. And 38 gains for Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems, giving them 49 seats, seems a little optimistic.

Polls like this, however, will intensify the debate among MPs about whether the next election will be like 1992, when Neil Kinnock’s Labour were confident of victory but John Major won by 21 seats, or the 1997 Blair landslide.

Unlike now, when the government wins most Commons votes these days with majorities of around 70, by 1997, Major’s majority had all but disappeared. So, as Sir Keir regularly points out, this time “we have a mountain to climb”.

Mrs Thatcher was right to be sceptical about opinion polls. But Sir Keir can take comfort from the fact that this new poll suggests Labour is on the right path as the party attempts to climb the mountain.

Politics

Why a ‘Trump-fest’ could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

Published

3 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Why a 'Trump-fest' could be just the tonic for a special relationship under strain

It was perhaps not quite how officials, in London at least, had envisaged the announcement of the state visit would be made.

In the Oval Office, Donald Trump revealed the news in his own way.

“I was invited by the King and the great country. They are going to do a second fest – that’s what it is. It is beautiful,” he said during an impromptu Oval Office moment.

The question was, did this “fest” – which Mr Trump suggested could happen in September – amount to the much hyped second state visit for the American president?

Or was this actually just the smaller visit that had been offered two months ago as an initial bilateral visit at which the state visit would be discussed?

Back in February, Sir Keir Starmer presented the president with a letter from King Charles and the offer of a state visit.

The letter proposed an initial meeting between the King and the president to discuss details of the state visit at either Dumfries House or Balmoral, both in Scotland, close to Mr Trump’s golf clubs.

The King wrote: “Quite apart from this presenting an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest, it would also offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit to the United Kingdom… As you will know this is unprecedented by a US president. That is why I would find it helpful for us to be able to discuss, together, a range of options for location and programme content.”

As he revealed the news of his “fest” with his “friend Charles”, Mr Trump said: “I think they are setting a date for September…”

Sources have since confirmed to Sky News that it will amount to the full state visit.

‘Even more important’

It’s possible the initial less formal presidential trip may still happen between now and September. Mr Trump is in Europe for the NATO summit in June and is due in Scotland to open a new golf course soon too.

“It is the second time it has happened to one person. The reason is we have two separate terms, and it’s an honour to be a friend of King Charles and the family, William,” the president said.

“I don’t know how it can be bigger than the last one. The last one was incredible, but they say the next one will be even more important.”

His last state visit in 2019, at the invitation of the late Queen, drew significant protests epitomised by the giant blow-up “Baby Trump” which floated over Parliament Square.

Britain’s trump card

September is a little earlier than had been expected for the visit. It may be an advantage for it to happen sooner rather than later, given the profoundly consequential and controversial nature of the first few months of his second term.

The decision by the British government to play its “state visit trump card” up front back in February drew some criticism.

And since February, Mr Trump’s position on numerous issues has been increasingly at odds with all of America’s allies.

On Ukraine, he has seemingly aligned himself closely with Vladimir Putin. His tariffs have caused a global economic shock. And on issues like Greenland and Canada, a member of the Commonwealth, he has generated significant diplomatic shock.

A risk worth taking

Mr Trump is as divisive among the British public as he is in America. Sir Keir is already walking a political tightrope by choosing the softly softly approach with the White House.

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The UK government chose not to retaliate against Mr Trump’s tariffs, unlike some allies. Sir Keir and his cabinet have been at pains not to be seen to criticise the president in any way as they seek to influence him on Ukraine and seek an elusive economic deal on tariffs.

On that tariff deal, despite some positive language from the US side and offers on the table, there has yet to be a breakthrough. A continuing challenge is engaging with the president for decisions and agreements only he, not his cabinet, will make.

British officials acknowledge the risk the state visit poses. In this presidency, anything could happen between now and September.

But they argue British soft power and Mr Trump’s fondness for the Royal Family and pomp – or a “fest” as he calls it – amount to vital diplomatic clout.

For a special relationship under strain, a special state visit is the tonic.

Politics

Hashkey takes aim at XRP ETF in Asia with new fund backed by Ripple

Published

6 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Hashkey takes aim at XRP ETF in Asia with new fund backed by Ripple

Hong Kong-based crypto investment firm HashKey Capital announced the launch of an XRP fund, with plans to convert it into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the future.

According to an April 18 announcement, the fund, officially titled the HashKey XRP Tracker Fund, is reportedly “the first investment fund in Asia designed to track the performance of XRP.”

XRP developer Ripple will serve as the fund’s anchor investor. In a separate X post, HashKey Capital said the fund aims to bring “more institutional capital into regulated XRP products and the broader digital asset ecosystem.”

Close collaboration with Ripple

In another X post, HashKey Capital said the fund marks the beginning of a closer collaboration with Ripple. The two firms “are exploring new investment products, cross-border DeFi solutions, and tokenization —including the possibility of launching a money market fund (MMF) on the XRP ledger.”

In the announcement, HashKey Capital partner Vivien Wong said the firm will share its connections with financial institutions, regulators and investors in Asia with Ripple, adding:

“Ripple offers us the opportunity to collaborate on more investment products and solutions across cross-border payment solutions, decentralized finance (DeFi), and enterprise blockchain adoption.”

A Hong Kong XRP ETF in the works?

The XRP (XRP) Tracker Fund is HashKey Capital’s third tracker fund and follows the firm’s Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETF products. The company noted that this product may also become an ETF in the future.

A boon for XRP’s institutional adoption in Asia

Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, a crypto investment firm based in Asia, told Cointelegraph that “the launch of the XRP Tracker Fund by HashKey Capital marks a pivotal moment for institutional adoption” in the region. He said regulated and transparent products like Hashkey’s fund are what institutional investors need to enter the market.

“XRP’s proven use case in cross-border payments, combined with HashKey’s robust infrastructure, sets the stage for meaningful capital inflows and wider acceptance of crypto assets in global finance,“ Huang said.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple and industry with no crypto legal precedent set

Politics

Altcoins may rally in Q2 2025 thanks to improved regulations: Sygnum

Published

6 hours ago

April 18, 2025

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Altcoins may rally in Q2 2025 thanks to improved regulations: Sygnum

Altcoins may see a resurgence in the second quarter of 2025 as regulations for digital assets continue to improve, according to Swiss bank Sygnum.

In its Q2 2025 investment outlook, Sygnum said the space has seen “drastically improved” regulations for crypto use cases, creating the foundations for a strong alt-sector rally for the second quarter. However, it added that “none of the positive developments have been priced in.”

In April, Bitcoin dominance reached a four-year high, signaling that crypto investors are rotating their funds into an asset perceived to be relatively safer.

But Sygnum believes regulatory developments in the US, such as President Donald Trump’s establishment of a Digital Asset Stockpile and advancing stablecoin regulations, could propel broader crypto adoption.

“We expect protocols successful in gaining user traction to outperform and Bitcoin’s dominance to decline,” Sygnum wrote.

Increased focus on economic value ignites competition

Sygnum also said that competition would increase as the market focuses on economic value. Increased competition in a market often results in better products, ultimately benefiting consumers:

“The market’s increased focus on economic value compels greater competition for user growth and revenues, with rising protocols such as Toncoin, Sui, Aptos, Sonic, or Berachain taking different approaches.”

Sygnum added that while high-performance blockchains address limitations of the Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana blockchains, these chains find it challenging to achieve meaningful adoption and fee income.

The report highlighted that some approaches have been more sustainable. These include Berachain’s approach of incentivizing validators to provide liquidity to decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, Sonic’s rewarding developers that attract and retain users, and Toncoin’s Telegram affiliation to access one billion users.

Aside from layer-1 chains, Sygnum highlighted that layer-2 networks like Base also have potential. The report pointed out that while the memecoin frenzy on the blockchain pushed its users and revenue to new highs, it made an equally sharp decline after memecoins started losing steam.

Despite this, Sygnum noted that Base remains the layer-2 leader in metrics like daily transactions, throughput and total value locked.

Memecoins still a leading crypto narrative in Q1

Despite recent price declines, memecoins remained a dominant crypto narrative in Q1 2025. A CoinGecko report recently highlighted that memecoins remained dominant as a crypto narrative in the first quarter of 2025. The crypto data company said memecoins had 27.1% of global investor interest, second only to artificial intelligence tokens, which had 35.7%.

While retail investors are still busy with memecoins, institutions have a different approach. Asset manager Bitwise reported on April 14 that publicly traded firms are stacking up on Bitcoin. At least twelve public companies purchased Bitcoin for the first time in Q1 2025, pushing public firm holdings to $57 billion.