Fear the Dodgers and Braves? Five teams that could take down MLB’s two superteams this season
Entering the 2024 MLB season, two superteams have stood out from the crowd. In fact, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers were in a tier of their own at the top of our initial MLB Power Rankings and are the clear projected favorites to win it all when the postseason rolls around. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the league is going to lie down and watch the Dodgers and Braves battle it out for supremacy this season.
We asked five of our ESPN MLB experts to each pick one team they think is best suited to take down the Dodgers and Braves in October, when it counts the most. While none of our experts necessarily expects this team to be better than L.A. and Atlanta for the 162-game long haul, they all made their strongest cases why their selection could be the team to knock L.A. and Atlanta out of the postseason. Just how strong were their cases? We left that for our resident judge — the honorable Jeff Passan — to decide with his ruling for each case.
The case for the Rangers: I already hear Judge Jeff: “No team has gone back-to-back since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. It’s impossible.” That just means we’re due for a repeat champion — and this lineup can carry the Rangers to another title. You know this is true, Judge. After all, you wrote the story in spring training heralding the coming of Wyatt Langford. The Rangers are adding him plus a full season of Evan Carter to a lineup that already led the American League in runs scored a year ago. Yes, Josh Jung‘s broken wrist stinks, but that means the Rangers will have only eight good hitters instead of nine while he’s out.
I’m less worried about Texas’ pitching than most. Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning are good enough to keep the rotation afloat until Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle return later in the season. You want to bet against Eovaldi, who merely went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA last postseason, plus a healthy deGrom and Scherzer in October? The bullpen is also deeper with the additions of David Robertson and Kirby Yates, which is nice but doesn’t even matter because Bruce Bochy could manage a bullpen with three High-A pitchers, two college relievers, Jesse Orosco and Judge Jeff himself to a World Series title. — David Schoenfield
Judge Jeff says: I’ve been working on a splitter, but that’s neither here nor there. Your case is sound. It also depends on the health of guys who haven’t been able to stay healthy. What version of deGrom returns in August? How much more is left in the tank for Scherzer, who turns 40 in July? The lineup, even without Jung, will be just fine, and general manager Chris Young’s aggressiveness almost ensures the Rangers will get better at the trade deadline. For now, the lack of pitching certainty leaves them a touch light compared to the Braves and Dodgers.
The case for the Orioles: The Orioles won 101 games last season and still haven’t come close to reaching their ceiling. Baltimore has so much young talent that its Triple-A team is more interesting right now than at least four big league clubs. The ascension of these players is collectively steep, inevitable and organic. A lineup that within a few weeks will feature Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg has balance, speed, power and athleticism to match up with anyone, and there is more on the way as the outfield gets younger.
Yes, the talent is tilted toward the position player side — but that means Baltimore can make targeted additions to the pitching staff over the course of the season. The depth in young hitters will allow the O’s to fill in gaps in the rotation and bullpen alike with top-of-the-market reinforcements. And it’s not like those acquisitions would be counted on to turn around a faltering staff. Baltimore, as is, has a playoff-caliber pitching staff. Everything that’s put into the roster from here is gravy. — Bradford Doolittle
Judge Jeff says: “Will allow” is not the same as “will,” and that’s the flaw in the pro-Orioles argument. Everything you say about Baltimore’s lineup is correct. It’s the Orioles’ willingness to move controllable players that I doubt, even with David Rubenstein’s recent purchase of the team. Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal run the Orioles’ baseball operations department with a high degree of judiciousness, and because their window to win is as big as any American League team’s, adding the necessary pitching might come down to value over urgency. And it is indeed necessary. With Kyle Bradish’s return from an elbow injury uncertain and John Means getting hammered in his first rehab start at Triple-A, the questions about Baltimore’s pitching linger.
The case for the Phillies: There were times watching the Phillies last October when it felt as if they’d never lose. The electricity at Citizens Bank Park was unmatched, the confidence with which this team carried itself palpable. The Phillies seemed destined for the World Series. And if not for Craig Kimbrel — tagged with the loss in Games 3 and 4 of the National League Championship Series, helping the Arizona Diamondbacks get back into a series they ultimately won — they probably would have reached it. Kimbrel is now gone. What remains is a loaded lineup headlined by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto; a devastating rotation duo in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola; and a bullpen that, early hiccups aside, began the season with the highest WAR projections by FanGraphs.
Even if the Phillies don’t win the NL East, they’ve more than proved they can take down the Braves when it matters most, having eliminated them from each of the past two postseasons. As for the Dodgers? These Phillies seem to possess what the Dodgers have lacked in recent years: an October swagger that radiates through your television screen. — Alden Gonzalez
Judge Jeff says: When it comes to star-level talent, the Phillies have as much as any team, Dodgers and Braves included. Their ability to take the leap might depend on the secondary characters, though. Is Cristopher Sanchez — with his 2 mph velo leap and filthy changeup — a viable rotation piece for a full season? Can a healthy Spencer Turnbull be the guy whose first start includes five scoreless innings? Does the best version of Nick Castellanos show up? If the answer to all three is yes, I’m a lot more bullish on the Phillies’ prospects, particularly considering the team’s October pedigree.
The case for the Yankees: Brian Cashman’s multiyear obsession with attempting to balance his lineup finally came to fruition when the Yankees acquired Juan Soto in the offseason. It was essential to their October goals. The postseason is littered with good teams who bowed out early because they were too right handed. See the White Sox in 2021 and the Blue Jays, basically every year, for evidence. New York was in that category, relying on Anthony Rizzo and a cast of characters (Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo et al), to provide slug from that side of the plate. It never worked. Now we’re already seeing what having a premier left-handed hitter can do to stretch the lineup while taking some pressure off Rizzo. This group, when healthy, plays in the fall.
But let’s not bury the lead here. Pitching is still the name of the game, and Gerrit Cole needs to get healthy while Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes must be the best versions of themselves. I don’t believe that’s asking too much. And there was chatter last July that the Yankees would have moved a top prospect for Cody Bellinger, so don’t discount a big trade for a pitcher this time around. I’m sure they don’t want to give up a recovering Jasson Dominguez or the highly touted Spencer Jones, but there was a time when championships were all that mattered in New York. With potentially having Soto for only one year, Cashman needs to go for it. The Yankees can topple the giants if he does. — Jesse Rogers
Judge Jeff says: Sweeping the Houston Astros over four games to begin the season — all in come-from-behind fashion no less — validated the these-Yankees-are-different buzz that accompanied them entering the season. The validity of their case boils down to one thing, however: Do they or don’t they have Gerrit Cole come October? If he is healthy and himself, the threat for championship No. 28, and their first since 2009, is very real. Without Cole, the Yankees’ rotation is fine, just not the sort that screams World Series winner.
Houston Astros
The case for the Astros: For the Astros to take down the Dodgers or Braves themselves, they would have to reach the World Series. And if recent history is any indication, they will at least give themselves a shot to do so. The Astros have advanced to the ALCS a record seven straight seasons. They went to the World Series four out of those seven years and were one win away from a fifth appearance last fall. They’ve won it all twice. October baseball is different, and there hasn’t been a better team in October than Houston over the past decade.
Two managers, a few stars and some valued complementary veterans have come and gone, but an elite core remains intact in 2024. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman highlight a deep lineup that also features Jose Abreu, Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick as part of the supporting cast. The back end of the bullpen, bolstered by Josh Hader‘s arrival, is the best in the majors on paper.
The starting rotation has question marks to start the season — enough for Houston to have strongly considered signing Blake Snell in mid-March — but the talent is there. Justin Verlander is expected to come off the injured list by the end of the month. Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia should follow. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier were elite in 2022. Ronel Blanco, a rotation fill-in, tossed a no-hitter Monday. If need be, the Astros could address the rotation at the trade deadline. An 0-4 start was less than ideal, but the Astros are consistent winners when it matters most. The Dodgers and Braves, who have both been knocked out in the NL division series the past two years, can’t say the same. — Jorge Castillo
Judge Jeff says: What, no one wants the Pirates? Tigers? Brewers? And you’re going to go with a team that has played six games, led all of them at one point and won just one? This is also a team with similar-to-Texas concerns about starting pitching health, a payroll already at an all-time high without much deadline wiggle room and a weak farm system. Then again, these are the Astros. In addition to Alvarez, Tucker and Altuve, Diaz is mashing. A low-strikeout offense with few holes, a still-strong defensive unit and a nasty back end of the bullpen, Hader’s early hiccups notwithstanding? There’s a reason the Astros are one good run shy of an all-time LCS streak, and as the Yankees and Phillies learned in 2022, only a fool sleeps on Houston in October.
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
There’s an ancient South Florida proverb about numbers: Not one. Not two. Not three. Not four.
Opening the Eastern Conference finals with five goals in Game 1 on Tuesday showed that at least for one game the Florida Panthers could find a breakthrough against the Carolina Hurricanes. Only for Thursday to arrive and the Panthers to once again post five more goals in a 5-0 win to take a 2-0 series lead before heading back to Sunrise for Game 3.
How did both teams perform? Who are the players to watch next game, and what are the big questions facing the Hurricanes and Panthers ahead of Game 3 on Saturday?
Say what you will about the offside goal being akin to Charlie Brown getting the football pulled out from under him by Lucy. While it’s possible that the disallowed goal could have provided momentum, there were other things that suggested the Hurricanes were going to struggle.
Under Rod Brind’Amour, they’ve become one of the teams that consistently generates the highest number of shots per game. They entered Game 2 averaging 33.2 shots per game, yet they hadn’t even cracked double digits until there was 14 minutes remaining in the third period. Natural Stat Trick’s metrics showed they had two high-danger scoring chances midway through the third period, and after giving up seven goals throughout the entirety of the second round, they’ve allowed 10 goals in the first two games.
Or view it this way: The Panthers had more goals than the Hurricanes had high-danger scoring chances. — Clark
What more is there to say about Florida, really? The term “clinic” doesn’t seem to cover it. The Panthers have done it all against Carolina in these first two games.
Thursday was another dominant performance by the reigning Stanley Cup champions in an offensive and defensive effort that requires no notes. The Panthers set a tone early with Gustav Forsling‘s goal just 1:17 into the game and never relented. The Hurricanes were averaging over 33 shots per night in the postseason (second most among playoff teams), and Florida limited their chances to seven shots through the first two periods alone — while the Panthers pummeled Carolina with 16 shots and four goals in the same span. It was enough to chase Frederik Andersen from the net, when he was replaced by Pyotr Kochetkov with a four-goal deficit.
The Hurricanes’ top scorers were simply no match for Florida’s attack or a locked-in Sergei Bobrovsky, who, while not heavily challenged, was a match for all comers in a 16-save shutout. The way Florida is playing right now, one has to wonder how the Hurricanes can get back in this series as the teams shift down to Florida. — Shilton
Three Stars of Game 2
0:52
Panthers go up 3-0 on Sam Bennett’s power-play goal
The Panthers threaten to run away with it after Sam Bennett’s power-play goal makes it 3-0 in the first period.
He had two goals and a helper, as the Panthers dominated the Hurricanes in Game 2. This is Bennett’s second career 3-plus point playoff game and second career multigoal playoff game.
2. Team defense
The Hurricanes were averaging 33.2 shots per game this postseason, second in the playoffs to the Colorado Avalanche. But the Panthers, with their efficient and suffocating defense, held Carolina to five shots in the first 30 minutes of the game. Near the end of the second period, the fans at Lenovo Center were growing tired of it and started chanting “shoot the puck” at their team. Carolina did have more shot volume in the third period, ending with 17, but nothing got past Sergei Bobrovsky.
3. Offside reviews and coaching tactics
Normally, I’m not the biggest fan of lengthy offside reviews. I wish there was a timer — if you can’t make the call in 90 seconds, then the call on the ice stands. But the Florida Panthers executed one to perfection in Game 2. Up 3-0 in the second period, the Hurricanes scored, but thinking the play was offside, the Panthers called a timeout to buy more time to see every angle available, eventually calling for the challenge. It was indeed determined to be offside and the goal was taken away. — Arda Öcal
Players to watch in Game 3
Let’s start here with the Hurricanes. There’s no shortage of options. Part of the reason Svechnikov is in this space is because he leads the Hurricanes in goals this postseason. The rest of it has more to do with whether the Canes can rely on a certain postseason pattern for Svechnikov holding true. After going goalless in Games 2 and 3 against the New Jersey Devils in the first round, he responded with a hat trick. He didn’t score in the first two games against the Washington Capitals only to then score a goal in three straight games. Could Svechnikov respond by grabbing at least one goal in Game 3? Or are the Canes in store for more offensive struggles once they arrive in Sunrise? — Clark
The Panthers’ instigator had been quiet since Florida’s first-round series win over Tampa Bay, recording just five assists in eight games heading into Game 2 against Carolina. But Tkachuk looked more like himself Thursday, agitating the Hurricanes and making his physical presence felt. He also emerged early on the score sheet, registering an assist on Gustav Forsling’s game-opening salvo and adding a goal — Tkachuk’s first in 10 games — in the opening period to extend Florida’s lead to 2-0. It was a testament to how commanding Tkachuk’s line was with Sam Bennett (two goals and an assist) and Carter Verhaeghe (three assists) that he was able to finally appear as the Tkachuk of old. If this was indeed Tkachuk’s reawakening after a slow stretch, then the Hurricanes better be well aware of Tkachuk going forward because he was as dangerous as ever at both ends of the ice in Game 2. — Shilton
0:54
Matthew Tkachuk taps it in to pad the Panthers’ lead
Matthew Tkachuk sneaks the puck past the goalie to pad the Panthers’ lead against the Hurricanes.
Big questions for Game 3
What’s the response to their worst playoff loss this year?
Several questions will be asked when it comes to what adjustments can be made before Game 3. Could one of them be about what the Hurricanes must do to get off to a stronger start? Allowing two first-period goals in Game 1 already presented the reality that the Panthers were going to remain aggressive. But to then give up the first goal less than two minutes into the first before giving up three in total in an opening frame that saw the Panthers record just five shots on net? That only adds to the degree of difficulty for a team that has now lost two straight playoff games after losing two postseason games in total over the first two rounds, especially when the last time the Hurricanes were down 0-2 to the Panthers in a playoff series was during the 2023 Eastern Conference finals in which they were swept. — Clark
Will Sam Reinhart be back at full strength for the Panthers?
Florida saw one of its top skaters exit in the first period after Sebastian Aho delivered a hit that forced Reinhart out for the remainder of the game with a lower-body injury. While Florida had Game 2 well in hand even before Reinhart became unavailable, it’s safe to say the Panthers are a better team when he’s in the lineup. Reinhart’s status going forward is significant for Florida overall. Reinhart paced the Panthers with 39 goals and 81 points in the regular season and notched 11 points in 13 postseason tilts going into Game 2. Florida must hope that Reinhart isn’t just available for Game 3 (and beyond), but that he’s not too banged up to continue operating at a high level. — Shilton
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