MLB Watchability Index: Which teams are the most fun to watch this season?
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Welcome to the 2024 MLB Watchability Index! As ESPN NBA writer Zach Lowe would say — and we’re stealing this idea from his annual League Pass rankings — these are NOT power rankings, but watchability ratings. Imagine you’re sitting at home on a Saturday evening and you want to watch a baseball game, but perhaps your favorite team has already played. Which teams do you most want to watch? This is that list.
We’ve created a super complex formula to score teams in seven different categories, creating a possible maximum score of 50. These categories fit into the general idea of: “What makes baseball exciting?”
First, the 10-point categories (on a scale of 1-10 points maximum):
Star power: This is based off our annual MLB Rank of the top 100 players of the season, with points rewarded on how many players a team had in the top 100 and how high they ranked.
Youth: We love young players — especially promising, young players. I looked at each team’s projected FanGraphs WAR from players in their first or second seasons in the majors.
Baserunning: The new rules helped bring speed back into the game last season with more stolen bases, creating a more exciting — and watchable — version of baseball. I used FanGraphs’ team baserunning metric (which factors in stolen bases and running the bases) from last season, making some adjustments for major roster changes or additions.
And then there are the 5-point categories (on a scale of 1-5 points maximum):
4- and 5-star catches: The Baseball Savant site lists catch probability for outfielders, including the number of 4-star plays (catch probability of 26-50%) and 5-star plays (probability of 0-25%). Even 4-star catches are pretty rare. Ronald Acuna Jr., for example, had no 4-star catches last season. I looked at last year’s totals and again made estimated adjustments as necessary.
425-plus-foot home runs: Long home runs are extra fun, so I looked at last year’s totals as a baseline. The league leader was somebody who signed a very large contract in the offseason.
Minutiae: Ballpark, uniforms, mascots, unintentional comedy, etc. It’s more pleasing to watch a game from Wrigley than, say, Tropicana Field.
Bonus section: Anything else I want to add for a team at my whim, up to a maximum of five points.
Let’s dive right into it, starting with the lowest-scoring teams — i.e. the least watchable — and finishing with the highest-scoring teams that you should drop everything to sit down and watch. (The point total is next to each team’s name.)
Star power: 1 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 4.5 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 1 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 1, for the hope of seeing James Wood and Dylan Crews later in the season
This is a team trying to play Jesse Winker in left field and 32-year-old Eddie Rosario in center field — and you can guess how that’s going to work out. The youth score is surprisingly low and maybe a little unfair, but FanGraphs isn’t projecting much playing time or value for Wood or Crews, and guys such as Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore have been up long enough that they’re now in the unofficial post-youth phase of their careers. The Presidents Race is fun, though. Go Teddy!
Star power: 2 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 2 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 1
Bonus: 1, for the new “campfire milkshake” concession item
I’m pretty sure Luis Robert Jr. accounts for most of these points, from 4-star catches to speed on the bases to long home runs. The White Sox have done a nice job improving what was a weak farm system just a couple of years ago, but only Colson Montgomery is likely to make much of a contribution this season, so this rebuild is filled with older players. Unfortunately, “veteran leadership” does not score well in watchability.
Star power: 3 | Youth: 2.5 | Baserunning: 1 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 0.5, for all the times announcers will call Luis Arraez a “professional hitter”
The Marlins were crushed with pitching injuries in spring training, including Eury Perez, who accounted for a chunk of the above points with both star power (No. 67 in MLB Rank) and youth. That won’t help their viewing attractiveness, and neither do indoor games with empty seats. The Marlins are also not a young team — and not a fast one, either, with the likes of Josh Bell, Jake Burger and Arraez clogging up the bases. There could also be some unintentional comedy with the infield defense. However, I do like their City Connect jerseys.
Star power: 1 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 1 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 2. +1 for Brenton Doyle‘s arm, +1 for the occasional Coors Field football score
I ran this list by a former Rockies fan who has been disillusioned by the team’s failures in recent years and his comment: “Too high.” Perhaps he is looking at Doyle’s batting average and not his defense! I mean, that’s understandable as Doyle’s 52 OPS+ was the seventh lowest since 1920 for an outfielder with at least 400 plate appearances. He won a Gold Glove as a rookie last season and simultaneously possesses perhaps the best range of any center fielder and the best throwing arm. I mean, we should probably subtract a point for his offense and maybe another point for the Rockies playing Charlie Blackmon in right field, but the point is Doyle is a human highlight film in center field.
Note as well: How were the Rockies the worst baserunning team in the majors a year ago? Playing in the large expanse of Coors Field should make it easy to go from first to third on base hits at will. But not for this team.
Star power: 1 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 1
Bonus: 2. +1 for fans protesting terrible ownership, +1 for those sweet Kelly green jerseys
OK, the A’s rank high in the youth category because they have a lot of it — somebody has to play and it sure isn’t going to be veterans making more than the league minimum (the A’s joined the Rockies and Nationals as the only teams with no players in our top 100). They had potential in the baserunning category, but they just sent speedster Esteury Ruiz down to the minors. Because, you know, why give the fans somebody exciting to watch?
Star power: 2 | Youth: 5 | Baserunning: 2.5 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 3. +1 for Mike Trout being Mike Trout, +1 for the inevitable showdown between manager Ron Washington and Anthony Rendon, +1 for Reid Detmers‘ curveball
Look, the Angels weren’t all that interesting even when they had Shohei Ohtani, so they sure aren’t going to be more interesting without him. I’ve always enjoyed watching games from Anaheim (and they do always draw well) and, hey, Trout just hit a 473-foot home run on Monday. This might be underrating the potential for the Angels’ season to go completely haywire, however — in a good or bad way, I have no idea. After all, Washington called a team meeting after two games as the team began the season with 11-3 and 13-4 losses. (And it worked: The Angels won their next two games.)
Star power: 2 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 2. +1 for Jhoan Duran‘s fastball velocity, +1 for Edouard Julien being French Canadian (he spoke no English when he started in college at Auburn)
This is our first reminder that this index is different — and should be different — from our weekly Power Rankings: The Twins, after all, are favored to repeat as American League Central champions. They scored low in all three of the 10-point categories, however, as their only two players in the top 100 were Pablo Lopez at No. 55 and Carlos Correa at No. 78. Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton certainly have top-100 potential, but the injury risk bothered our voters and Lewis has unfortunately already landed on the injured list. They do have one of the best uniform sets in the majors, though.
Star power: 4 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 1.5 | Catches: 5 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 3. +1 for Davis Schneider‘s mustache and goggles combo, +1 for play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman, +1 for Kevin Gausman‘s splitter
With Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho in the outfield, it’s no surprise that the Blue Jays rank best in the 4-star and 5-star catch category, but they had just three players in the top 100 (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gausman) and don’t appear to have much potential impact youth unless pitcher Ricky Tiedemann gets called up. They also fared poorly in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and outside of Guerrero, they don’t hit many big blasts. Indeed, looking at this lineup and considering the offense was middle of the pack last season, the Jays might struggle to score runs.
Star power: 3 | Youth: 4.5 | Baserunning: 4 | Catches: 1 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 1.5. +1 for Logan Webb‘s sinker, +0.5 for the beer shower given to Jung Hoo Lee after his first home run
The Giants’ offseason additions make them a lot more intriguing than they were a season ago: reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell, center fielder Lee, Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman and DH Jorge Soler. Snell and Chapman cracked the top 100 alongside Webb (runner-up to Snell) and the early returns on Lee have been positive — we’ll see if he can improve the team’s lackluster catch rating. Rookie Kyle Harrison has a chance to give the Giants one of the best pitching trios in the league. They also rate well in Minutiae: great ballpark, great announcers, classic uniforms.
Star power: 3.5 | Youth: 3.5 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 1.5. +1 for Masyn Winn‘s arm, +0.5 for players going wild when manager Oli Marmol got a two-year extension and the ensuing uproar every time a bullpen decision backfires
The Cardinals are sort of in no-man’s-land right now: They have a couple of declining superstars in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt (44th and 47th in our top 100) and some intriguing young players in Jordan Walker and Winn, but nobody clearly in their prime. If only they could combine Walker’s offensive potential with Winn’s defense. The Cardinals don’t fare very well in baserunning or fantastic catches — and Tommy Edman, the best in both categories, is currently out with a wrist issue. Victor Scott II is a speedster who made the Opening Day roster after stealing 94 bases in the minors, but he’s probably around only until Edman or Lars Nootbaar return.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 5.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 2.5. +1 for knowing Bobby Witt Jr. will be a Royal for the long term, +1 for Cole Ragans‘ changeup and potential to be the best KC starter since Kevin Appier, +0.5 for Salvador Perez
The Royals have been awful since 2018 — three 100-loss seasons since then, including 106 in 2023. That means the rebuild hasn’t just been slow, it hasn’t made any progress. Believing they can contend in a weak AL Central, the Royals went out and signed some veteran starters. Still, it’s a big leap from 56 wins to 86. Anyway, Witt is worth the price of admission all by himself, Ragans might be a potential ace and Kyle Isbel apparently makes a lot of great plays in the outfield. Plus, the fountains at Kauffman Stadium are a pleasant backdrop for viewing any Royals game.
Star power: 6 | Youth: 2.5 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 3.5. +1 for George Kirby‘s control, +1 for Julio Rodriguez‘s energy, +1 for every reference to Cal Raleigh‘s nickname (“The Big Dumper”), +0.5 for the yellow metal trident used for home run celebrations (all fun and games until Julio pokes his eye out)
The Mariners have J-Rod and a strong starting rotation — Luis Castillo, Kirby and Logan Gilbert, ranked 39th, 40th and 62nd in our top 100 — so they get a solid star power figure. But outside of Rodriguez, they don’t do much on the bases or in the field (there’s a strong likelihood they’ll get no 4- or 5-star catches from their corner outfielders). T-Mobile Park also suppresses offense in general, so you’ll see a lot of low-scoring games when the Mariners are at home. Still, there’s nothing like seeing the cameras showing Mount Rainier on a sunny afternoon and the Mariners’ Sunday cream jerseys are among my favorites (the black pants on their City Connect uniforms are an abomination, however).
Star power: 2 | Youth: 5.5 | Baserunning: 5 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for when Tarik Skubal wins the Cy Young Award, +1 for stealing Jason Benetti from the White Sox, +1 for the pizza spear home run celebration (all fun and games until Spencer Torkelson pokes his eye out)
The Tigers are sneakily interesting, especially if Torkelson and Riley Greene can build upon their 2023 seasons. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows give them two high-profile rookies and if Meadows is as advertised in center field, that catch score could improve. Maybe we’ll even see top prospect Jackson Jobe join the rotation or bullpen later in the season. Here’s a question: Is Javier Baez a negative or positive viewing experience at this point in his career? He’s still astonishing at times on defense, but he’s probably the most frustrating batter to watch in the majors: low batting average, terrible OBP and he doesn’t hit for any power anymore.
Star power: 9 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 2.5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 3 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 4. +1 for Ronel Blanco maybe throwing another no-hitter, +1 for Jose Altuve still doing Jose Altuve stuff, +0.5 for the ridiculous movement on Framber Valdez‘s pitches (maybe too much, he walked six in his first start), +0.5 for annoying home runs hit into the Crawford Boxes, +0.5 for the fear you feel every time Yordan Alvarez steps into the box, +0.5 for living legend Justin Verlander
Look, there’s no denying the Astros’ star power: They tied with the Braves for the most players in the top 100 at eight, with Alvarez (No. 8), Altuve (No. 26) and Kyle Tucker (No. 28) each cracking the top 30. Tucker is a potential 30-30 threat (he stole 30 bases and hit 29 home runs last season), but they’re pretty station-to-station on the bases. Of course, we’ll now see if Blanco is the real deal after his no-hitter against the Blue Jays and I’m curious to see if Hunter Brown breaks out. Plus, we’ll get Verlander back at some point. Subjectively, I’d probably put the Astros higher, but this is where our highly scientific system puts them.
Star power: 3.5 | Youth: 8 | Baserunning: 7 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 1 | Minutiae: 2 |
Bonus: 3. +1 for the Naylor brothers, +1 for Andres Gimenez‘s range at second, +1 for Shane Bieber looking healthy again after striking out 11 on Opening Day (even if it was against the A’s)
With second-year starters Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, plus sophomore catcher Bo Naylor, the Guardians fare very well in the youth category, and they also run the bases well, with four players stealing at least 20 bases last season (although Myles Straw‘s bat has him back in the minors). The lack of power means they have to win with pitching, defense and speed — a formula that worked in 2022, but not as well in 2023. If Bieber can regain his Cy Young-level form and rookie Brayan Rocchio can provide some offense at shortstop, they have a chance.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 4.5 | Baserunning: 10 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 1
Bonus: 4. +1 for Randy Arozarena‘s celebrations, +1 for Zach Eflin‘s immaculate strike-throwing ability, +0.5 for Pete Fairbanks‘ fastball, +0.5 for Jose Caballero‘s confidence, +0.5 for their ability to turn every no-name reliever into a good pitcher, +0.5 for Yandy Diaz‘s biceps
The Rays’ athleticism certainly shows up on the bases, where they’re annually one of the best and most aggressive teams. Oddly, it didn’t show up as much in outfield defense, where Arozarena had just one 4-star catch (no 5-star ones) and Josh Lowe had none of either (Jose Siri is outstanding in center, however) last season. Arozarena and Diaz were the only two Rays to crack the top 100 list, although Eflin, Lowe and Isaac Paredes could all get there and Brandon Lowe has been there in the past. The big negative: Watching games from the Trop is like watching a game played in some 16th-century dungeon in a cold, moldy English castle.
Star power: 6.5 | Youth: 3.5 | Baserunning: 1.5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 4. +1 for the Juan Soto Shuffle, +1 for large human Aaron Judge playing center field, +1 for Marcus Stroman‘s six-pitch repertoire and succeeding as a 5-foot-7 pitcher, +0.5 for the potential of Carlos Rodon‘s slider, +0.5 for the hot start
Wait, the Yankees, the crown jewel franchise of the majors, rank only in the middle of the pack? Pinstripes! Yankee Stadium! John Sterling! A fearsome one-two punch in Judge and Soto and homers galore from the likes of Judge, Soto and Giancarlo Stanton certainly means the Yankees should rank higher, right? While Judge (No. 2), Soto (No. 3) and Gerrit Cole (No. 7) all ranked in the top 10, the only other Yankees player in the top 100 was Anthony Volpe at 95. I also discounted the point total a bit since Cole is out at least a couple of months. Of course, the best thing about the Yankees in 2024: If they return to the top of the division after missing the playoffs in 2024, that’s a great story, especially if Judge and Soto tear up the league; if they miss the playoffs again, that’s also a great story.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 7 | Baserunning: 8.5 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 3
Bonus: 4. +1 for Elly De La Cruz‘s arm, +1 for the possibility De La Cruz will hit a pitch that bounces over the fence, +1 for the hope of seeing De La Cruz going home to third on a triple, +1 for Hunter Greene‘s potential (and blazing fastball)
De La Cruz is a great example of how one off-the-charts rip-roaring ball of dynamite can make an otherwise pedestrian team (other than their overall youth) must-watch viewing. But you know what’s not exciting? Strikeouts, which he has a lot of. At this point, De La Cruz is more hype and potential than actual production (although he did come in at No. 72 in our top 100). Losing Matt McLain to shoulder surgery is a big loss for the Reds, and their ultimate success will depend on their young rotation. If the pitching improves and De La Cruz hits, this Reds team will climb higher on this list.
Star power: 7.5 | Youth: 3 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for Dylan Cease‘s slider, +1 for Ha-Seong Kim‘s defense, +1 for watching games from San Diego and wishing you were there
The Padres have lost Soto, Snell and Josh Hader yet still have Fernando Tatis Jr. (No. 14), Manny Machado (25), Cease (57), Xander Bogaerts (58) and Kim (83) in the top 100, with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove having top-100 ability at their best. It feels like everyone ignored Tatis last season — which is understandable following the missed season and PED suspension, but he’s still one of the more exciting all-around players in the game. He won the Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the NL in 2023 after a full-time move to right field, earned due to a combination of range and a strong throwing arm. He stole 29 bases and hit 25 home runs. He’s off to a good start this year and I think the offense improves. I’m also a big fan of the Padres embracing their history and going all-in on brown for their uniforms.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 7.5 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 5 | 425+: 1.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for Jackson Chourio hype, +1 for Brewers broadcaster Bob Uecker, +0.5 for Abner Uribe‘s fastball, +0.5 for Devin Williams‘ changeup (would get more points, but he’s out for a couple of months)
This surprised me a bit as the Brewers are lacking in star power after trading away Corbin Burnes (they had three players in the top 100, but Willy Adames was the highest at No. 86), but they have young, exciting players all over the field, starting with Chourio, Kiley McDaniel’s No. 2 prospect heading into the season. The outfield defense will be spectacular with Chourio, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer and the double-play combo of Adames and rookie Joey Ortiz will also be stellar. Rhys Hoskins has already given them a little edge on the field as well. Bonus points for an enthusiastic fan base, Bernie Brewer and the sausage races.
Star power: 2 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 5.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 4.5. +1 for Oneil Cruz doing all the same things we said about Elly De La Cruz, +1 for Andrew McCutchen, +1 for Jared Jones‘ slider, +1 for Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ defense, +0.5 for the hot start that gives hopes and dreams to Pirates fans
This is not an overreaction to Pittsburgh’s hot start. Nope. THIS IS A SCIENTIFIC SURVEY. I don’t know if the Pirates are going to be good, but they’re going to be more fun than they’ve been in the past. The return of Cruz is a huge part of that, of course, but they’ve added an excellent fly ball chaser in center fielder Michael A. Taylor, while Jones’ debut start with 10 strikeouts and the pending arrival of Paul Skenes and his 100-mph heater helps the youth score. Mix in a great ballpark, classic jerseys and the Roberto Clemente Bridge, and I’ll be watching more Pirates games than I have in years (assuming they keep winning).
Star power: 5 | Youth: 3 | Baserunning: 7 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 3.5 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 3.5. +1 for the Mets’ broadcast booth, +1 for Edwin Diaz and Timmy Trumpet, +1 for Mr. Met, +0.5 for Brandon Nimmo‘s smile
Whoa, the Mets over the Yankees? How can that be possible? The Mets are awful! (So far.) Well, yes, you’re overlooking the unintentional comedy factor here — the Mets will apparently be the Mets, even with a new manager and new president of baseball operations. We’re not even a week into the season, and the Mets have already: (1) instigated a benches-clearing incident and intentionally thrown at a batter; (2) lost a game in extra innings with two bad fielding plays; (3) scored eight runs in four games; (4) stressed that they’re not in panic mode. Tell that to Mets fans.
Star power: 3 | Youth: 8 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 3.5 | 425+: 2.5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 3. +1 for Brayan Bello‘s changeup, +1 for Triston Casas‘ upside (1.034 OPS in the second half), +0.5 for Tyler O’Neill‘s physique, +0.5 for Greg Weissert‘s sweeper
It’s the new-look Red Sox: faster, better defense and a whole lot more entertaining. The Red Sox have been mediocre and uninteresting the past two seasons, but with rookie Ceddanne Rafaela in center, flanked by Jarren Duran and O’Neill, they’ve dramatically upgraded their outfield defense and their overall team speed. Throw in a couple big bashers in Rafael Devers and Casas (the only two Red Sox in the top 100) and this should be a fun offense to watch. Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford also looked outstanding in their first starts as new pitching coach Andrew Bailey may already be improving the staff. Red Sox fans are understandably cranky after the team didn’t spend much this offseason, but I think they’ll grow to like this team — it has a chance to surprise.
Star power: 9 | Youth: 1 | Baserunning: 5 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 5. +1 for Trea Turner‘s slides, +1 for Bryce Harper‘s designer cleats, +1 for Zack Wheeler‘s fastball, +1 for Brandon Marsh‘s and Matt Strahm‘s hair, +1 for the best set of uniforms in the majors (yes, that’s technically part of the Minutiae category, but they’re getting a bonus point anyway)
Subjectively, I might’ve ranked the Phillies first: They have star power, they have personality, they’re good, their fans are loud and into the game, Marsh and Johan Rojas give them two plus outfielders and Harper is always a guy you can’t take your eyes off. Alas, since this is an established team of veterans, they score at the bottom of the youth scale, and that hurts their overall ranking. They’re also lacking a bit on the bases, even with Turner’s electric speed and slides, and surprisingly, they didn’t earn a full “5” in the 425-plus foot home run category — they only ranked eighth in the majors in that department last season.
Star power: 4.5 | Youth: 6 | Baserunning: 10 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 1 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 3. +1 for Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner turning two, +1 for “Go Cubs Go,” +0.5 for Justin Steele’s slider, +0.5 for stealing manager Craig Counsell from the Brewers
The Cubs have a lot of items in their favor: They were tied with the Rays as the best baserunning team in the majors last season (Hoerner led the way with 43 steals, but they were efficient and opportunistic up and down the lineup), they get to include Shota Imanaga in the “youth” category alongside Jordan Wicks, and they had a solid four players in the top 100 (and that didn’t include Seiya Suzuki, who I think will crack that list next season after a big 2024). And, of course, the Cubs have Wrigley Field. Baseball perfection on a summer afternoon.
Star power: 8 | Youth: 9 | Baserunning: 3 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 5. +1 for when Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return, +1 for manager Bruce Bochy, +1 for Evan Carter‘s plate discipline, +1 for Marcus Semien never taking a day off, +0.5 for Adolis Garcia‘s arms, +0.5 for Corey Seager‘s ability to crush the first pitch
The Rangers win the World Series and now add Carter for a full season, plus fellow super rookie Wyatt Langford. What a turnaround for this franchise in such a short time. If they do manage to get a healthy deGrom and Scherzer back in the second half, maybe they can become the first team to repeat since the 2000 Yankees. The dynamic offense is going to score a ton of runs. The only negatives here are a lack of action on the bases — although Carter and Langford will add more speed — and the antiseptic nature of watching a game from Globe Life Field. The jersey set is pretty bland other than the throwback baby blues.
Star power: 6 | Youth: 10 | Baserunning: 7.5 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 3 | Minutiae: 2
Bonus: 3. +1 for Gabriel Moreno‘s arm, +1 for Zac Gallen‘s ability to change speeds, +0.5 for Eugenio Suarez‘s infectious personality, +0.5 for Corbin Carroll‘s swagger
OK, there’s a lot of Carroll in this ranking: He was No. 10 in the top 100, he still qualifies as a part of the “youth” category, he’s the best baserunner in the game and he was the only outfielder with four 4-star catches last season. He even hit a respectable five home runs of 425-plus feet. He’s not a one-man “SportsCenter” highlight, however: The Diamondbacks have four other players in the top 100 (Gallen, Ketel Marte, Moreno and Merrill Kelly) and have other young players to watch, including Moreno and second-year righty Brandon Pfaadt. If only they’d figure out the uniforms.
Star power: 10 | Youth: 2 | Baserunning: 8 | Catches: 3 | 425+: 5 | Minutiae: 4
Bonus: 5. +1 for Spencer Strider‘s mustache, +1 for Strider’s new curveball, +1 for Ronald Acuna Jr.’s flair, +1 for Matt Olson‘s swing, +1 for Charlie Morton still going strong
No shock here as the Braves are overloaded with top-echelon talent and are likely on their way to a third straight 100-win season, after the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz Braves had three straight from 1997 to 1999. If you like offense, the Braves are your team. If you like speed, the Braves have it with Acuna and Michael Harris II, and they were a top-five baserunning team in 2023. If you like defense, the Braves are solid across the board. If you like pitching, the Braves have even more of it than last season, and Strider would top many lists as the No. 1 must-see starter in the game. Last season, they staked their claim as one of the best single-season lineups. If they do it again — and top it off with a World Series title — they go down as maybe the best ever.
Star power: 6 | Youth: 10 | Baserunning: 9 | Catches: 2 | 425+: 2 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 5. +1 for Gunnar Henderson making The Leap (he will), +1 for Corbin Burnes‘ cutter, +1 for Kyle Bradish‘s slider/curveball combo, +1 for Adley Rutschman‘s leadership, +1 for being so good they didn’t even need Jackson Holliday to start the season
It’s not just that the Orioles are young and good and got even better in adding an ace in Burnes, but they play such a clean, efficient brand of baseball. They run the bases, they execute on defense and they don’t just rely on home runs to score runs (which is harder to do anyway with the deeper left field at Camden Yards). They still have Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez as sophomores and no-doubters to improve, and then they’ll be adding Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad during the season as needed. They play in one of the best parks in the majors, have a timeless set of uniforms and have a fan base that is going to fill the park this season.
Star power: 10 | Youth: 6.5 | Baserunning: 6 | Catches: 4 | 425+: 4 | Minutiae: 5
Bonus: 5. +1 for Mookie Betts playing shortstop, +1 for Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s splitter, +1 for Tyler Glasnow‘s curveball, +1 for Freddie Freeman‘s doubles, +1 for Shohei Ohtani
You probably knew this was coming even if you’re on the side of Dodger Hater. The only negative for Dodgers fans — aside from Max Muncy‘s defense — might be that they’re going to be leading a lot of games 7-2 in the sixth inning. Here’s one surprising thing about the Dodgers: They didn’t hit many 425-plus-foot home runs last season. Betts and Freeman only hit three apiece. They found a way to fix that by adding Ohtani, who topped the majors with 21 such blasts (and he brings speed on the bases). Teoscar Hernandez also brings power and the occasional 4-star catch (even though overall he’s not a great defender). On top of that, you get Dodger Stadium with that perfect “Dodgers” script and the sun shining bright.
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David Hale
If you come at the king, as they say, you best not miss.
On a Saturday that threatened to completely upend college football’s power dynamics, Tennessee took its shot at defending SEC champion Georgia, but its kick sailed wide right as time expired. In Atlanta, Georgia Tech‘s field goal team sprinted onto the field as the final seconds ticked off the clock and used a 55-yard kick to send Clemson tumbling from the ACC’s throne.
It was proof that the SEC still runs through Georgia. It was a revelation that the ACC might, too.
In Knoxville, Tennessee led by 14 early but could never quite put Georgia away. Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and he chewed up just enough yardage on a final drive to give Max Gilbert a shot at the game winner. Instead, a false start flag pushed the kick back 5 yards, and Gilbert’s boot never came close to the uprights. Georgia’s unrelenting attack proved too much in overtime, and Josh McCray rumbled into the end zone for a 44-41 win that offered a reminder that these Bulldogs still bite.
Georgia ran for 198 yards and three touchdowns, punishing Tennessee’s defensive front throughout. Gunner Stockton threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns, including a score-tying dagger with 2:32 remaining to London Humphreys, the latest UGA player to be named after a member of an uppity fraternity hell-bent on getting the guys from Kegger House kicked off campus in an ’80s comedy. The performance had the feel of a coming-of-age moment for Stockton. After waiting his turn behind Carson Beck, Stockton was given the reins of the offense in last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame, and he had done little to convince fans he was the right man for the job in Georgia’s first two games of 2025. Saturday was different. Following a sluggish first quarter, Stockton made one big throw after another with a nearly flawless second half before celebrating the win by, we assume, driving his F-150 out to his high school sweetheart’s house, holding a stereo over his head, and blaring Bon Jovi’s “Slippery When Wet” album.
If Stockton proved his toughness against Tennessee, Haynes King only added to his legend against Clemson.
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Georgia Tech kicks game-winning FG to spark wild celebrations
Georgia Tech races its kicker onto the field, and Aidan Birr nails a 55-yard field goal to take down Clemson.
Georgia Tech opened with a 13-0 lead in the first half in Atlanta, but just as Georgia had done against the Vols, Clemson refused to go down without a fight. The Tigers roared back, took a 14-13 lead in the third quarter, coughed it up, then tied the score at 21 with 3:26 to play in the fourth. That’s when King took over.
On the final game-winning drive, King converted a pair of third downs with his legs, ping-ponging off defenders and taking on tacklers repeatedly, enduring the type of physical punishment typically reserved for a “Saw” movie. The effort set up a fire drill for the kicking team in the final seconds, as Georgia Tech was without a timeout. Aidan Birr sprinted onto the field and delivered the most significant shot by a man named Birr yet to have a musical written about it by Lin-Manuel Miranda.
King finished with 211 passing yards, 104 rushing yards and a touchdown, and he was beaten up enough that he has already met the deductible on his health insurance by Week 3.
The 24-21 win was Georgia Tech’s seventh against a ranked ACC foe under coach Brent Key, and it established the Yellow Jackets as a contender in the ACC, alongside the league’s other powers: Miami, which knocked off No. 18 USF with ease 49-12 on Saturday, and Florida State, which was off this week.
The bigger question is what the loss means for Clemson. Dabo Swinney’s crew is now a 50-yard touchdown run in the final 90 seconds against Pitt and a walk-off 57-yard field goal against SMU away from having lost seven of its past eight games against Power 4 foes — though if that field goal were missed it would have just pushed that game to overtime. Suddenly, the idea that Clemson’s decade-long run as the class of the ACC might be over isn’t simply the ramblings of Tyler from Spartanburg. Had Georgia lost Saturday, it would’ve been less a king dethroned than Napoleon regathering his forces while serving out an exile on Elba.
Clemson’s fall from the throne, however, has an air of finality to it, as if Swinney hadn’t simply been exiled from atop the ACC, but had packed up his bags and moved to Boca Raton, where he’ll wear his socks too high, play a lot of pickleball and complain about early-bird special portion sizes at Denny’s. Clemson is a team without an offensive identity, with a QB who often looks flustered in critical situations, and faces, for the fifth year in a row, an uphill battle against a narrative that Swinney’s magic has worn off.
If Tennessee’s fate doesn’t seem so bleak, the outcome Saturday had to feel every bit as existentially fraught. The Vols had every opportunity to alter their fate, and instead, the losing streak to Georgia reached a decade. Even seeing Nico Iamaleava‘s UCLA team fall to 0-3 with a loss to New Mexico isn’t enough to ease that pain. That it didn’t have to be this way is a practical truth, but for everyone in the stands at Neyland Stadium, it might as well have been a blowout. It all was a reminder that a little hope is as dangerous as a second round of Fireball at The Hill.
If Saturday wasn’t a complete reshuffling of the deck in the SEC and ACC, though, it was a reminder that all power is fleeting, that every team’s grasp of the ring loosens, and that eventually, the next big thing simply becomes “the thing.”
Georgia Tech stormed the castle.
Georgia held the line for another week.
There will be more battles ahead, and we’ll be lucky if they’re half as good as what we saw Saturday.
More:
Texas A&M wins thriller
Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five | Game-day takeaways
Aggies upend Irish
Coach Marcus Freeman had a clear message to his defense after Saturday’s rollicking, frenetic and ultimately debilitating 41-40 loss to Texas A&M: “Not good enough.”
Notre Dame surrendered 488 yards of offense to the Aggies, including a 13-play, 74-yard touchdown drive in the final 2:53 that won the game for A&M and sent the Irish to 0-2 on the season.
It was a wild, back-and-forth game that had four lead changes and two ties in the second half alone, and the game ultimately turned on a botched PAT try that was mishandled by holder Tyler Buchner, who, ironically, was Notre Dame’s starting QB the last time it started 0-2 in 2022.
Marcel Reed, meanwhile, led Texas A&M to its biggest road win in more than a decade by throwing for 360 yards, including the game winner to Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds to play.
Reed, alongside Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson, TCU’s Josh Hoover and Texas Tech’s Behren Morton, are all off to exceptional starts, and there’s not a single other QB in the state of Texas whose early production is also worth mentioning here. Nope. Can’t think of anyone.
Week 3 vibe check
Each week, big plays, big upsets and big wins shape the narrative in college football, but dozens of smaller stories can have just as significant an impact in the long run. We try to keep tabs on the more subtle shifts in the sport here.
Trending down: Losing interestingly
Florida losing football games is hardly news anymore, but Saturday’s 20-10 defeat at the hands of LSU was more disappointing because no one did anything particularly stupid in the process of losing. Of course, Florida’s downward spiral began five years ago against LSU when Marco Wilson threw a shoe, and it reached a new depth last week against USF when Brendan Bett spit on a Bulls O-lineman. Saturday’s defeat offered none of that — no DJ Lagway giving Brian Kelly a wedgie, no Billy Napier forgetting to call a late timeout, because he was eating a bowl of spaghetti on the sideline, not even a missed field goal because the kicker tried using a 9-iron instead of his foot. Frankly, it’s like Florida’s not even trying to be bad anymore.
Trending up: Spite songs
Oklahoma couldn’t bring its band to Philadelphia for its game against Temple, ostensibly because that many oboes couldn’t fit into the Sooner Schooner without risking the whole thing sinking while attempting to ford the Schuylkill River, so the fine folks at St. Joseph’s University stepped up to help out.
The St. Joe’s band playing “Boomer Sooner” at a Temple game.
What a world. pic.twitter.com/lDlmmIkxhC
— Joe Mussatto (@joe_mussatto) September 13, 2025
It wasn’t an entirely benevolent gesture, however. The St. Joe’s band just wanted to troll its Big Five rival, Temple.
It wasn’t the only school to throw a little salt in the wound by employing an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” philosophy on Saturday either. After Georgia Tech knocked off Clemson, the stadium blared “Sandstorm,” the song famously employed by Tigers rival South Carolina. Not to be outdone, UMass blasted the entirety of Creed’s “Human Clay” in the locker room before the game in hopes the players would just quit and go home before having to play Iowa.
Trending down: Scheduling up
Indiana closed out another gauntlet of a nonconference schedule on Friday, narrowly escaping Indiana State 73-0. The Hoosiers are now 6-0 in nonconference regular-season games under Curt Cignetti, who urges you not to Google any of those opponents. Just be sure they’re all really good.
Trending up: Burnt ends
A sizable portion of the field at Wake Forest was covered in smoke during the first half Thursday night after a BBQ food truck caught fire just outside the stadium because, we assume, someone finally realized vinegar-based sauce is trash, and it all needed to go.
A food truck has caught fire at the NC State-Wake Forest game pic.twitter.com/KqdFMhSiYc
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) September 12, 2025
In the second half, it was NC State on fire, as the Wolfpack erased a seven-point halftime deficit for a 34-24 win. NC State is now 3-0 and perfectly poised for another of its patented 9-4 and fourth in “others receiving votes” seasons in 2025.
Trending down: Sleeves
Biff Poggi, the former Charlotte coach and what happens when you let your grandfather shop at Hot Topic, was patrolling a sideline as an FBS head coach again Saturday, filling in at Michigan for the suspended Sherrone Moore (though we can’t rule out that he was on Central Michigan‘s sideline in a CMU hat, glasses and a fake mustache). Turned out, the Wolverines didn’t miss a beat, dismissing Central Michigan 63-3 behind three touchdowns from QB Bryce Underwood. Poggi’s role, however, may have been minimal.
Biff Poggi isn’t taking credit for Bryce Underwood’s big game.
“I have a Labrador retriever who could coach that guy,” Poggi said. “He’s unbelievable.” pic.twitter.com/xdTdwBTwQu
— Austin Meek (@byAustinMeek) September 13, 2025
Frankly, if Michigan doesn’t have Poggi’s Labrador coach the team against Nebraska next week, Moore should be suspended another three games.
Trending up: Renewing rivalries
Delaware and UConn renewed a rivalry Saturday that had been dormant since the last time people unironically listened to Limp Bizkit, and the Blue Hens made up for lost time, knocking off the Huskies 44-41 in overtime behind Nick Minicucci‘s 13-yard walk-off touchdown run. The game marked the first time Delaware, a first-year member of Conference USA, hosted an FBS team since 1989, and it was the first meeting between the two former Atlantic 10 members since 1998. The win will surely be remembered as one of the watershed sporting events in the state’s history right alongside the 2003 FCS national championship and the time Mike Brey won six straight games of beer pong in a random Dewey Beach backyard while on his way to The Starboard.
Trending up: Ball confusion
Of all the things that have been thrown around Lane Kiffin over the years — clipboards, golf balls, insults — Saturday’s game against Arkansas offered a new one.
— Mr. Salmons (@MrSalmons) September 14, 2025
We assume this was John Calipari’s fault, but it had little impact on the outcome, as Ole Miss survived a tight game (41-35) without starting QB Austin Simmons. Afterward, Kiffin also used the basketball to beat Bobby Petrino in a rousing game of S-A-B-A-N.
Trending up: A Beamer in Blacksburg
Virginia Tech was demolished at home by Old Dominion 45-26 on Saturday in what feels like the last straw for Brent Pry as coach with the Hokies falling to 0-3.
Meanwhile, with LaNorris Sellers injured midway through Saturday’s game, South Carolina was beat by Vanderbilt at home 31-7.
Could that combo be the first steps to Virginia Tech bringing Shane Beamer home?
Beamer was interested in the job when his father, Frank, retired after the 2015 season, but the Hokies never seriously considered him. Then Virginia Tech tried to lure him before hiring Pry in 2022, but he wasn’t interested. Now, perhaps the timing is right if Beamer sees an easier path to the playoff in the ACC and the Hokies are willing to shell out any amount of cash for a little goodwill from a frustrated fan base.
On the other hand, Beamer is in a good place at South Carolina for the near term, and Virginia Tech may actually be converting Lane Stadium into a Spirit Halloween Store by the end of the week, too.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Two FCS powers collided Saturday, with Montana erasing a nine-point deficit in the final five minutes to beat North Dakota 24-23.
Montana QB Keali’i’ Ah Yat delivered a 28-yard touchdown pass with 1:35 to play that proved the difference in the game.
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Keali’i Ah Yat airs it out for a 28-yard touchdown pass
Keali’i Ah Yat airs it out for 28-yard touchdown pass
The win establishes the Grizzlies as an FCS championship contender, and it also settles a longtime debate between Montana and North Dakota about who has to house-sit for Canada during hockey season.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Samford knew it faced an uphill battle in a game against Baylor, so the Bulldogs emptied the vault and went to the one play no one could stop late in the first quarter Saturday.
“LOLLIPOP BALL! That ball was in the air forever.”
Breaking out the trick plays 👏 pic.twitter.com/8vKFYfwSA2
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 13, 2025
The touchdown — um, pass? — from C.J. Evans to Torrey Ward pulled Samford to within seven at the time, and earned plaudits from Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, who called it “the finest bit of passing offense I’ve seen in all my years.”
Sadly, the throw didn’t inspire Samford to more offensive fireworks, as Baylor rolled to a 42-7 lead.
Heisman five
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John Mateer takes it 51 yards to the house for OU
John Mateer takes it 51-yards to the end zone for the Sooners vs. the Owls.
You have to hand it to Arch Manning. Even amid all the hype and publicity he has already gotten, he wants to ratchet things up even further by attempting to become the first Heisman winner who once completed 5-of-16 throws for 69 yards and a pick in the first half against UTEP. Don’t worry, those Texas fans weren’t saying “boo.” They were saying “Booooo-k your ticket to New York for the Heisman.”
1. Oklahoma QB John Mateer
Mateer had 325 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in Oklahoma’s 42-3 win over Temple, and afterward housed three Jim’s cheesesteaks, repaired the Liberty Bell and added the words “Texas sucks” to the Declaration of Independence before skipping town.
2. Utah QB Devon Dampier
Dampier racked up 316 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 31-6 win over Wyoming. The Utes were 9-of-15 on third down in the game and 1-of-1 on fourth. For the season now, Utah is 32-of-46 on third, 3-of-3 on fourth and has kicked two field goals. Add it all up, and with Dampier leading the offense so far, the Utes have gotten a first down or points on 80% on down sets that reach third down.
3. Miami QB Carson Beck
In two games vs. ranked opponents this year (Notre Dame, USF), Beck has racked up 545 passing yards and six total touchdowns, enough success that police say they’re going to finally follow up on some leads about his missing Lamborghini.
4. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed
The Aggies are 3-0 thanks to Reed’s heroics against Notre Dame. Reed threw for 360 yards and two touchdowns — the latter coming on fourth-and-goal with 13 seconds to play — to beat the Irish. After the game, Jimbo Fisher noted that if he had a QB who could do that, he would be $75 million poorer right now.
5. Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy
Missouri is 3-0 after a dominant 52-10 win over Louisiana, and the Tigers probably deserve a good bit more hype as a potential playoff contender. But if Missouri is flying under the radar, its running back shouldn’t be. Hardy carried 22 times for 250 yards and three scores Saturday, his third straight game to start the season with over 100 yards on the ground. A year ago, while at Louisiana-Monroe, Hardy ran for 172 yards and a score against the Cajuns, bringing his career total vs. Louisiana to 422 yards rushing. Rarely is that much damage done to Louisiana by one person who isn’t on spring break.
Game-day notes
Sandwiched between scoring drives of 76 and 75 yards, Clemson’s offense totaled negative-7 yards on back-to-back three-and-outs after halftime Saturday. Those four series tell the story of the 12th-ranked Tigers’ stale, trick-or-treat offensive showing in a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech, one that could tank Clemson’s College Football Playoff hopes. Concerns around the Cade Klubnik/Garrett Riley-led offense were already there headed into Week 3 with the Tigers entering Saturday ranked 120th in total offense and 129th in rushing yards nationally, while Klubnik sat 60th in yards per play among Power 4 quarterbacks through two games. Veteran running back Adam Randall (16 carries, 86 yards) injected some energy into the Tigers’ rushing attack, but Klubnik’s turnovers on Clemson’s opening series of each half — including a red zone interception after halftime — were costly, and Riley’s offense ultimately pieced together only three drives of five or more plays across nine total offensive series. The loss, which dropped the Tigers’ playoff odds to 5%, per ESPN Research, is a potential backbreaker for a once-promising season. Klubnik, Riley and Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will have questions to answer about the offense that has now scored the program’s fewest points through three games since 1999.
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has announced itself as a legitimate playoff contender, helped in part by a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Haynes King‘s barreling, third-quarter touchdown run at the end of a 13-play, 90-yard scoring, followed by a bold “Philly Special” playcall on the subsequent 2-point conversion from offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, flashed the blend of toughness and creativity that can make the Yellow Jackets so dangerous (and so fun). Coach Brent Key is now 12-6 in one-score games at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were far from perfect Saturday, but they project as favorites in the majority of their games before a Nov. 28 meeting with Georgia. The question has to be asked: Could King, Key and Georgia Tech make a run at a spot in the 12-team playoff field this fall? — Eli Lederman
For the past two weeks, Georgia’s defense heard about how well it was playing, especially after carrying the offense in last week’s closer-than-expected victory over FCS program Austin Peay.
But in Saturday’s 44-41 victory in overtime at No. 15 Tennessee, the No. 6 Bulldogs looked lost at times on defense.
The high-flying Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions. Quarterback Joey Aguilar connected on his first 14 pass attempts for 213 yards and two scores.
“They grew up,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “I mean, look, defense, for two weeks has heard about how good they are. They got punched in the face.”
On Aguilar’s 72-yard touchdown to Chris Brazzell II in the first quarter, cornerback Ellis Robinson IV was beaten on a 50-50 ball when he mistimed his jump. Brazzell was wide open on a 14-yard touchdown that gave the Volunteers a 21-7 lead.
Late in the third quarter, cornerback Daniel Harris was in position to make a play on a deep pass, but he was beaten on Brazzell’s 56-yard touchdown catch.
“In the past, we’ve played them well, we didn’t give up big plays,” Smart said. “Today, we didn’t do that, and it’s not all on the corners. We didn’t have a guy in the middle of the field. We misjudged the ball. I mean, they’re correctable things, which is a good thing, and we really weren’t beat. We just misplayed it.”
Georgia’s defense made some adjustments, and the Volunteers didn’t score on five straight possessions, which allowed the Bulldogs to erase the two-touchdown deficit and take the lead.
Georgia will get a week off to make corrections before hosting No. 19 Alabama on Sept. 27. The Bulldogs have to generate more pressure on the quarterback, and inexperienced defensive backs like Robinson and Kyron Jones are going to have to continue to grow.
“We have to improve, and that’s the goal,” Smart said. “We want to be on an elevating trajectory, not flat.” — Mark Schlabach
While other high-profile action played out elsewhere, Ole Miss and Arkansas treated the country to eight combined first-half touchdowns in the Rebels’ 41-35 win Saturday night. Per ESPN Research, the game marked only the fourth SEC contest in the past 20 years in which both teams scored at least four touchdowns before halftime.
Ferris State transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss powered Ole Miss’ offensive outpouring. Starting in place of the injured Austin Simmons, Chambliss went 21-for-29 with 353 passing yards and joined Archie Manning, Chad Kelly and Jordan Ta’amu as the fourth passer in program history to record 350 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns in a game. Simmons doesn’t look like he’ll be out much longer, and even entered to throw a touchdown before halftime. But Chambliss’ dominant debut is evidence that the Rebels have a genuine insurance policy behind Simmons in the near and/or long term in 2025.
The good news for Arkansas: The Razorbacks have eclipsed 500 yards of offense in each of their three games and will have a chance to impact the 12-team playoff field this fall. The bad news: That’s primarily because seven of their final nine games are against teams currently ranked inside the AP Top 25, starting with Notre Dame on Sept. 27. That slate might not bode especially well for the Hogs’ own postseason aspirations, but Arkansas has a playmaking quarterback in Taylen Green and an offense capable of putting a dent in the hopes of a playoff contender sometime between now and late November, just as the team showed in an impressive performance on the road at Ole Miss in Week 3. — Lederman
It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.
In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football, Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.
And it’s going to last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control of their path to the playoff.
“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”
So what does it mean for Texas A&M?
This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.
Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of whether they are a conference champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.
Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.
Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if the teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.
Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders that have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — give it an edge in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.
Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.
Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay in either the SEC championship game or the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an off week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut out the Gators in the second half, and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.
Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU had only 10 first downs (compared with 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.
Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trips that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff victory under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ victory against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win is against Notre Dame this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.
Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. Though it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M looked in their wins against the Irish if the members were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now, the Tigers look like a tougher matchup on the road.
Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has thrown only one interception this season.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks’ biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could face the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.
Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting after the Tigers lost a second game.
Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams that have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats, and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.
Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he has only four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He has completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.
Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for star power, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost the Sooners’ résumé, but it assured Oklahoma of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference victories in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.
Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer indicate this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee will not penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.
Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win, plus the loss, could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.
Need to know: The Vols have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble against winless Western Michigan, but that won’t change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, an outcome that somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.
Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.
Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar matchup that might impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could knock out the loser with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game because of injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He accounted for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.
Why they could be lower: It has been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.
Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tuneup game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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