UK set to grow less than expected this year as IMF revises forecasts down
The UK economy is going to grow less than expected this year – with the International Monetary Fund warning the country will remain the second worst performer in the G7.
Newly revised forecasts indicate the UK’s gross domestic product will expand by just 0.5% in 2024 – a slight downgrade from previous estimates in January – compared with global growth of 3.2%.
However, UK GDP is tipped to increase by 1.5% in 2025 – making it the third-best performer among G7 nations – as households recover following a prolonged cost of living crisis.
According to the IMF, inflation in the British economy will remain at about 2.5% for the rest of this year but fall towards the Bank of England’s target of 2% next year.
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When looked at per head – with output split across the UK’s population – GDP flatlines, with no growth at all for 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.
This metric gives a better sense of living standards and how the economy feels for individuals by adjusting for the UK’s growing population with record legal immigration flows.
According to the IMF, the global economy has been “remarkably resilient” over the past two years – but the escalating conflict in the Middle East could push up food and energy prices around the world.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research, said: “Yet, despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops.”
The IMF believes lower-income countries would be harder hit if food, energy and transport prices rose.
While negative risks include a slow recovery of China’s troubled property sector, economists believe the outlook could be improved if elections being held around the world lead to tax cuts and a short-term boost to activity.
Pic: AP
Overall, global output is expected to grow by 3.2% this year – an 0.1 percentage point rise from its previous report in January.
Both the Conservative government and Labour opposition have staked their successes on a growing economy.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made economic growth one of his five key priorities at the start of 2023 – but the UK entered a recession late last year.
Labour is hoping more growth will allow for greater tax takes and generate money to fund increased public service spending.
It has adopted the same rules on borrowing as the Tories and said it will not grow debt.
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A HM Treasury spokesperson said: “The forecast for growth in the medium term is optimistic, but like all our peers, the UK’s growth in the short term has been impacted by higher interest rates, with Germany, France and Italy all experiencing larger downgrades than the UK.
“Today’s report shows we are winning the battle against high inflation, with the IMF forecasting that it will fall much faster than previously expected.
“With inflation falling, wages rising, and the economy turning a corner, we have been able to lower taxes for 29 million people, as part of our plan to reward work and grow the economy.”
Business
Ex-Post Office head of IT says Paula Vennells ‘hoped to avoid’ inquiry – and reveals she blocked her number
A former Post Office executive has said she was forced to block ex-boss Paula Vennells’ phone number after the ex-CEO called multiple times asking for help to avoid an independent inquiry into the Horizon IT scandal.
Lesley Sewell, previously the company’s head of IT, told the Post Office inquiry on Thursday that former CEO Ms Vennells had reached out to her four times between 2020 and 2021.
Ms Sewell said that she blocked Ms Vennells’ number due to discomfort with the contact.
In her witness statement to the probe, Ms Sewell said that one of Ms Vennells’ emails referenced the need to fill in memory gaps regarding Horizon and “Project Sparrow”, a committee addressing issues with forensic accountants who identified flaws in the accounting system.
“Paula contacted me on four occasions in total. I recall blocking her number after the last call as I did not feel comfortable with her contacting me,” Ms Sewell said.
“I had not spoken to Paula since I had left POL [Post Office Limited] in 2015.”
Lesley Sewell giving evidence to the Post Office inquiry. Pic: PA
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According to Ms Sewell’s testimony, former chief executive Ms Vennells said that she had “been asked at short notice” to appear before a parliamentary select committee on “all things Horizon/Sparrow and need to plug some memory gaps”.
Ms Sewell says Ms Vennells added: “My hope is this might help avoid an independent inquiry but to do so, I need to be well prepared.”
Ms Sewell, who struggled to contain her emotions and broke down in tears while giving her oath at the start of her inquiry evidence, was offered support and breaks as needed by chairman Sir Wyn Williams.
Sir Wyn told the former executive: “Ms Sewell, I appreciate this may be upsetting for you, Ms Price will ask you a number of questions in a proper and sensible manner, but if at any time you feel you need a break, just let me know, all right?”
Lesley Sewell taking the oath at the Post Office inquiry. Pic: PA
The Post Office has faced significant scrutiny following the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office which highlighted the Horizon IT scandal.
The faulty system led to the prosecution of more than 700 sub-postmasters between 1999 and 2015, with many still awaiting full compensation despite government announcements regarding payouts for those with quashed convictions.
London City Airport will on Thursday name its first permanent female chief executive as it targets approval of an expansion plan that would create nearly 1,500 jobs.
Sky News understands that the Docklands airport has told staff that Alison FitzGerald, who has been co-CEO since January alongside finance chief Wilma Allan, has landed the role.
A woman wearing a face mask walks by London City Airport, which suspended its operations during the pandemic
She replaces Robert Sinclair, who left in January after six years to become boss of the High Speed 1 rail link.
The airport is owned by a consortium of Canadian pension funds and Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund, which have backed a plan to increase its annual passenger traffic from about 6.5m to 9m.
It is appealing against Newham Council’s rejection of a planning application that would see it extend operating hours at the site, which is popular with City commuters.
The airport’s proposals include no increase in the annual number of flights and, in what it claims is a first for a UK airport, a commitment that only cleaner, quieter, new generation aircraft will be allowed to fly in any extended periods.
The runway at London City Airport
The appeal is being reviewed by the Independent Planning Inspector.
Its change of leadership makes London City the second of the capital’s airports to name a new CEO in quick succession, following the arrival at Heathrow of Thomas Woldbye last year.
“London City delivers one of the best passenger experiences in the UK and I’m committed to building on this success even further,” Ms FitzGerald said.
Representatives of Thames Water’s multinational syndicate of shareholders are poised to quit as directors of its corporate entities after refusing to inject the billions of pounds of funding required to bail it out.
Sky News has learnt that a number of board members at companies connected to Kemble Water Finance, Thames’s parent, are expected to resign in the coming days.
City sources described the move as “the logical next step” after the owners of Britain’s biggest water utility said they would not commit more than £3bn to help upgrade its ageing infrastructure and shore up its debt-laden balance sheet.
A default on part of Thames Water‘s holding company debts last month has raised the prospect that the company is heading towards special administration, a form of insolvency that would effectively leave the government liable for managing a utility firm which serves nearly a quarter of Britain’s population.
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Thames Water under threat
Thames Water is owned by a group of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds from countries including Abu Dhabi, Australia, Britain, Canada and China.
A number of the investors are represented on boards which sit at various points in the group’s labyrinthine capital structure.
It was unclear on Wednesday whether Michael McNicholas, a representative of the giant Canadian pension fund Omers and who sits on the board of Thames Water Utilities Limited, was among those in the process of stepping down.
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Along with the rest of the privately owned water industry, Thames Water faces a crucial moment next month when Ofwat, the industry regulator, publishes its draft determination on companies’ five-year business plans.
The draft rulings will be subject to negotiation before final versions are published in December.
Thames Water and a spokesman for Kemble declined to comment.
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