USC’s Miller Moss waited patiently for his shot. Now he has it
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPN
MILLER MOSS WAS driving back to Los Angeles from San Diego on Dec. 28 when his phone rang. It was Lincoln Riley.
The 12 hours before that call couldn’t have gone much better for Moss. After spending three years as USC’s backup quarterback — two in Caleb Williams‘ shadow — and only attempting 59 passes, Moss was finally given the chance to take center stage with the NFL-bound Williams opting out of the 2023 DIRECTV Holiday Bowl. Moss didn’t just make the most of his first-ever college start — he made history. The Los Angeles native threw for 372 yards on 33 attempts and a USC bowl-record six touchdowns while leading the Trojans to a 42-28 season-ending win.
“I really just wanted to play freely going into that game,” Moss told ESPN last month. “I didn’t want to have any regrets. Whatever happened, I wanted to go out there and let it rip.”
Adopting that mindset wasn’t easy for Moss. The season was not technically over yet and, in the lead-up to the bowl game, there were already plenty of rumors about which quarterback USC would be taking in the transfer portal to replace Williams.
“I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t difficult to filter that out and just focus on the game,” Moss said. “And I told Lincoln and Kliff [Kingsbury] that.”
Just a few weeks before, Riley had stood in front of a microphone after early signing day and told the assembled media that the program would potentially be looking to add not just one, but two quarterbacks from the transfer portal. After the Holiday Bowl, however, Riley’s outlook on USC’s quarterback room appeared to change. That’s when he called Moss.
“He was like, ‘Hey, great job. I just want to let you know we’re not going to take an older transfer,'” Moss said. “I think Lincoln really wanted to see me play and then was going to make a decision because I think he wanted to see if what happened in the game confirmed his practice evaluation.”
Moss is well aware Riley’s call did not mean the quarterback position at USC is automatically his, but it came with some validation Moss had been waiting for his whole college career.
Moss had many doubts during his first three years in college. He had conversations about transferring to a program where he could play right away. But in the end, he would always decide to remain at USC. In the age of the portal, Moss’s story is a rarity. He stayed and developed, and it paid off.
Ahead of USC’s spring game, Moss — who still has two years of eligibility left — is still relishing the Holiday Bowl performance while trying to ensure it is only the beginning of his time as the Trojans’ starter. “It was one of the greatest feelings of my life, but I felt like I had lived that moment so many times in my head already,” Moss said. “I had visualized that moment in my head of me being able to show the world that I can do this.”
TWELVE YEARS AGO, a 10-year-old Miller Moss found himself in a peculiar place: inside the Oct. 15 issue of “The New Yorker.”
The article by Ben McGrath, titled “Head Start,” focused on longtime quarterback guru Steve Clarkson and the development of football players — specifically quarterbacks — from very young ages. Though Miller’s family was not athletically inclined, Miller had taken a great interest in football from a young age, and he started playing in Clarkson’s spring football league for toddlers.
Miller’s father, Eric Moss, is quoted in the piece discussing how his son’s upbringing wasn’t immediately focused on sports but rather on using his interests outside the sport to create a more holistic approach to development.
“I really think a lot of this is an accident,” Eric said in the story. “Whatever you put in front of him he kind of likes.”
Eric knew from an early age his son gravitated toward activities that stimulated his brain. At the time of the New Yorker piece, Eric already had Miller involved in writing camps, math competitions and chess. Miller also drew football plays on his laptop, just for fun. In Miller’s elementary school yearbook, which included the typical “What do you want to be when you grow up?” question, Miller had said “Secretary of State.” By high school, the answer had evolved to “President.”
“I think he is an unusual kid for a football player and an unusual football player for a kid,” Eric said in an interview with ESPN last month. “I think he’s a tactician and a strategist, but he is also self-effacing and has the ability to bring people together.”
As Miller’s mom, Emily Kovner Moss, explains, the family was not oriented around creating and protecting a high-level athlete. Growing up, Miller would become fixated on certain things — Greek mythology, space travel, drawing or basketball — and his parents wouldn’t pull him away to focus on football.
“He would be pretty obsessive about things and really pursue them,” Emily said. “We have so many books on Greek gods and goddesses and airplanes and rocket ships from those days.”
In the end, though, football was what stuck — more specifically, the dream of being USC’s starting quarterback. Though Miller’s upbringing didn’t occur in an environment where there was pressure to perform, he still cared every time he went out on the football field. Or, in the case of his first few years at USC, when he had to stand and watch from the sidelines. “There were obviously moments that were frustrating,” Eric said.
“There were people that told me ‘What are you doing?'” Miller said. “Even people on our own team being like, ‘Hey man, you could play, go play other places.'”
During the shortened 2021 season, he threw 13 passes. The year after, 14. All of them came in garbage time.
“I expressed that to my family: This sucks. It’s not fun,” Miller said. “It’s difficult watching film of opponents and I’m thinking, I know I can do this. It definitely tested my patience.”
The 2022 Pac-12 championship game was rock bottom. Needing a win to all but guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff, USC was trailing Utah in the second half and Williams had hurt a hamstring but stayed in the game. According to Miller, coaches told him to get warmed up. But the moment never came. Williams stayed on the field, and after scoring 17 points in the first half, the Trojans’ offense only scored seven points in the second half and lost to the Utes 47-24.
“Caleb is a hell of a competitor and earned the right to stay in the game, and I can’t say that if I was him in that position, I wouldn’t have done the same thing,” Miller said. “But that awkward back and forth of ‘Am I going to go in or not?’ was frustrating. It was disheartening because I walked away from that questioning Lincoln’s belief in me.” Miller communicated his frustrations to Riley and asked about his position on the team. If the coaching staff didn’t trust him, he needed to know so he could move on with his college career elsewhere.
“I always wanted him to know as his mom that you always have a choice, you are never stuck somewhere,” Emily said. “I always wanted him to know that he had agency. And of course, when you’re emotionally connected to something, it’s more difficult to exercise that agency. At the same time, when you have an emotional connection, you’re more invested and you work that much harder and it means that much more.”
It wasn’t just about football. Miller’s entire life is at USC. He likes being a college student. USC is connected to not just his football career, but his education and dreams beyond the sport. That made it easier to push away the idea of transferring.
“What was hard about it is that he loves USC,” Emily said. “He’s so dedicated to it, dedicated to it in every way, athletically, academically, socially. Like it’s in his soul.” Miller has already earned a bachelor’s degree in law, history and culture with a minor in business finance, and he is currently pursuing his master’s degree in social entrepreneurship.
“Him staying at USC this whole time has been painted as an allegiance to the program and school, which is true,” Eric said. “But I also think it has something to do with his sense of himself … He is genuinely connected on campus, it’s not just a means to an end. He has his friends on campus, his girlfriend, the football guys and, this may sound odd, but he’s actually a college student in a community that’s bigger than the football team.”
That’s why when Riley assured Miller that the Pac-12 championship situation was not a reflection on him or his talents, it was easy to believe the coach. That was enough to convince him to commit to another year at USC. In 2023, Williams would still be under center, but Miller Moss’ opportunity was getting closer.
LAST YEAR, MOSS’ season took on a different tone. He knew that he would spend most of his time on the sidelines. But he knew he was only a few months away from getting his shot. He didn’t even give the transfer portal a thought.
“Coming into USC, I was probably pretty naive thinking I’d play a lot,” Moss said. “I think one thing that I had to learn early on in college is there’s a bunch of different paths to success.”
Despite the low points and the lack of playing time, Moss remained engaged and established himself as an emotional leader who competed in practice and invested in the younger wide receivers. Getting a start in the Holiday Bowl was, in some ways, a culmination of Moss’ journey. But after 60 minutes and six touchdowns, it became a showcase that vindicated Moss’s patience and jumpstarted the next part of his career.
“It was a magical night. It was more than I could have dreamed of,” Emily said. “The battle was fought for so long and he had really earned it, and that made it all the more fulfilling, But it’s part of a journey that has had ebbs and flows, so it’s not the end of something, it’s the continuation.”
Since the Holiday Bowl, USC did add a quarterback in the first transfer portal window, but it was not a multiyear starter with experience. Instead, they added UNLV’s Jayden Maiava — a rising sophomore with plenty of potential coming off a 3,000-yard season. Riley has remained consistent in saying that the position is up for grabs.
“After the way Miller played in the bowl game, and not just the way he played that night, but the way he handled those six weeks of practice, we felt extremely confident in him and we really felt like there was not much of a need to really pursue anybody that was older,” Riley said. “We’re going to let those two guys duke it out.”
Moss hasn’t let that deter him. He spent the offseason watching documentaries about successful sports teams such as the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick New England Patriots and Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls, and he has tried to soak up knowledge about leading a team. He has organized team outings and throwing sessions down in Huntington Beach, too. The foundation Moss built as a backup and the work he has done since has been noticed by his teammates.
“I feel like his talent has always been there,” sophomore wide receiver Zachariah Branch said. “He has a good arm, great confidence and he can read the scheme of defenses as well, but his leadership definitely has grown.”
Even if it appears that Moss’ transition from backup to leader happened overnight, he and those around him know that it hasn’t.
“These are always roles he’s always been attracted to, and that he’s always had in schools, in the classroom on teams,” Emily said. “So it’s not like, oh, all of a sudden I am the leader of this team. This is a 22-year project in the making, whether it’s in an athletic forum, an academic one, an artistic one.”
Football might be at the forefront of Moss’ mind at this moment. But as Eric puts it — almost echoing the quotes he once gave to “The New Yorker” — the past three years have shown this journey is about a lot more than that. Maybe “Secretary of State” and “President” have been replaced with “NFL quarterback,” but Moss’ experience at USC so far has been as instructive to his career as any time on the field going forward will be.
“If you’re the SC quarterback, everyone has an opinion on you,” Eric said. “To persevere in that context, he’s demonstrated he can do that. And that inner confidence, I think, is a real quality for Miller that will help him in lots of ways when football is history and he’s doing something else.” The experience he’s gone through has not only allowed Miller to stick to his plan in the face of adversity, but it’s also made him more well-prepared than ever to step into the demanding role this season will ask of him.
“In my mind,” Moss said, “I’ve lived every day of the past two years preparing for this.”
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
With schools playing as many as 16 games this season in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff format, we waited a little longer than usual to unveil our 2024 ESPN All-America team.
Postseason performances should matter, especially when you’re talking about up to four games.
Headlining the team is Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, who turned in All-America performances at three spots. (We limited him to one position on our list.) The receiver/cornerback was the cornerstone of a Colorado team that won nine games in 2024 after suffering through seven straight losing seasons.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts are the only repeat selections from last season. Ohio State and Texas each have three first-team selections to lead the way, and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is the only true freshman on the team.
OFFENSE
Ward made the most of his one season at Miami after transferring from Washington State. A Heisman Trophy finalist, he tied for the FBS lead by accounting for 44 touchdowns (39 passing, 4 rushing and 1 receiving) on the ACC’s No. 1 offense and threw just seven interceptions in 454 pass attempts. Ward, who started his career in the FCS ranks at Incarnate Word, had 10 games with at least 300 passing yards and set a Miami record with 4,313 passing yards.
Second team: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
The mere fact that Jeanty made a run at Barry Sanders’ hallowed NCAA rushing record of 2,628 yards tells you everything you need to know about Jeanty’s 2024 season. He led the country with 2,601 rushing yards and scored 30 touchdowns. Jeanty was the Heisman Trophy runner-up to Hunter, and defenses aligned to stop him all season. Even so, he entered the Fiesta Bowl with 1,882 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, which was more than any other FBS player had in total rushing yards.
Second team: Dylan Sampson, Tennessee
Everybody in and around Arizona State’s program already knew Skattebo was an elite running back, but he showed the rest of the country in his two postseason outings. Skattebo finished second to Jeanty with 1,711 rushing yards and had 21 touchdowns. He also caught 45 passes, and in the Big 12 championship game win over Iowa State and playoff loss to Texas, he rolled up 450 all-purpose yards and accounted for six touchdowns, one a 42-yard pass in the Sun Devils’ double-overtime loss to Texas.
Second team: Kaleb Johnson, Iowa
Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has been a head coach at the NFL and collegiate levels, said he has never had a receiver like Smith, with his blend of size, speed and ability to track the ball in tight coverage. A true freshman, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Smith was uncoverable in the Buckeyes’ first two playoff games, with four touchdown catches and 290 receiving yards. He’s tied for third nationally with 14 touchdown receptions and averages 17.3 yards per catch.
Second team: Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
Nash is the first San José State player to be named a consensus All-American. The 6-3, 195-pound redshirt senior became the fourth player in FBS history to earn the receiving triple crown in the regular season with 104 catches, 1,382 receiving yards and 16 touchdown catches. Nash had 39 catches of 15 yards or longer, according to Pro Football Focus, and 71 catches resulting in a first down, leading the nation in both categories. He also threw two touchdown passes this season.
Second team: Xavier Restrepo, Miami
Warren came to Penn State as a quarterback, and that athleticism was on full display in his sensational redshirt senior season. He caught 104 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 combined touchdowns (8receiving, 4 rushing and 1 passing). The 6-6, 261-pound Warren became the first tight end in Big Ten history to catch 100 passes in a season and won the John Mackey Award as the top tight end in college football.
Second team: Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green
Despite a left ankle injury that sidelined him for the SEC championship game, Banks was the centerpiece of a Texas offensive line that paved the way for one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Longhorns were one of six FBS teams to average more than 275 passing yards and 160 rushing yards per game. The 6-4, 320-pound junior won the Lombardi Award this season as the nation’s best collegiate lineman and has been a starter at left tackle since his true freshman season.
Second team: Wyatt Milum, West Virginia
Jackson’s versatility has been a huge part of Ohio State’s run to the national championship game. He returned for his senior season after earning All-Big Ten honors at left guard each of the previous two seasons. He continued his stellar play at guard through the first half of this season but moved to left tackle after Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Second team: Willie Lampkin, North Carolina
Florida’s offensive line improved steadily in the latter part of the 2024 season, when the Gators won their last four games, and Slaughter’s play was a big reason. A redshirt junior who has announced he will return for the 2025 season, Slaughter allowed just one sack and one quarterback hit in 728 snaps in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.
Second team: Cooper Mays, Tennessee
Booker was a powerful blocker in the run game during all three of his seasons at Alabama and was a two-year starter at left guard. He also started one game this season at left tackle. Booker recorded a team-high 87 knockdown blocks and didn’t allow a sack in 715 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. He declared for the NFL draft following the Crimson Tide’s bowl game.
Second team: Bill Katsigiannis, Army
From the time he stepped foot on campus, Campbell was a fixture on LSU’s offensive line at left tackle, and this season, he played every offensive snap (866) in 11 of LSU’s 12 games. Campbell shared the Jacobs Trophy as the SEC’s top blocker with Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. Campbell is headed to the NFL after three seasons in Baton Rouge and is rated as the No. 2 tackle in the draft by ESPN’s Mel Kiper.
Second team: Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon
It might be a while before college football sees another iron man like Hunter, who played a staggering 1,440 snaps this season. In addition to playing more than 650 snaps on both offense and defense, he even played some on special teams — talk about an all-purpose player! Hunter tied for fourth nationally with 96 catches and ranked second with 15 touchdown receptions in winning the Biletnikoff Award as the country’s top receiver and led Colorado on defense with four interceptions and 11 pass breakups.
Second team: Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh
DEFENSE
Carter played through a painful shoulder injury in Penn State’s playoff semifinal loss to Notre Dame and still managed a sack. He led all FBS players with 23.5 tackles for loss, including 12 sacks. The 6-3, 252-pound junior moved from linebacker to edge rusher this season and established himself as one of the most dynamic defenders in the country. He had four games with multiple sacks and is projected to be one of the top defenders taken in the 2025 NFL draft.
Second team: Kyle Kennard, South Carolina
The defensive front was Michigan’s strength, and it was dominant in the upset win over Ohio State in the regular-season finale. Graham was the rock of that unit and a disrupter in the interior against both the run and pass. He had 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 26 pressures and is headed to the NFL, where he’s projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper to be the top defensive tackle taken in the 2025 draft.
Second team: Rylie Mills, Notre Dame
After transferring from Texas A&M, Nolen had his best season at Ole Miss. He’s big (6-3, 305 pounds) and has great burst. Nolen led all SEC defenders with 12 tackles for loss in league games and is the kind of interior pass rusher all defenses covet. And as a run stopper, he was ranked second among all interior defensive linemen, according to Pro Football Focus.
Second team: Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Ezeiruaku blossomed as a senior and leaves BC as one of the top defensive players in school history. At 6-2 and 247 pounds, Ezeiruaka was a pass-rushing dynamo with 16.5 sacks to rank second among FBS players. He was third nationally with 20.5 tackles for loss en route to winning ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors and the Ted Hendricks Award as college football’s top defensive end.
Second team: Jack Sawyer, Ohio State
The Butkus Award winner as the nation’s top linebacker, Walker is the third Georgia player to win the award since 2017. He’s a fierce tackler wherever he lines up and led the Bulldogs with 10.5 tackles for loss. Walker played more snaps at inside linebacker than he did rushing the passer, but he still finished with 34 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.
Second team: Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
One of the best stories in college football, Dolac started his career at Buffalo as a walk-on, then missed most of last season because of a shoulder injury before transferring to Utah State for a semester and going through spring practice. But he knew he belonged closer to home and returned to Buffalo to have a huge senior season. He led the nation with 168 total tackles and led all linebackers with 18.5 tackles for loss to go along with five interceptions.
Second team: Jay Higgins, Iowa
The epitome of a do-it-all linebacker, Hill went from being one of the best true freshmen in 2023 to one of the best defenders in the country this season. And, yes, he has another season remaining at Texas. The 6-3, 235-pound sophomore led the Longhorns with 113 total tackles and tied for fourth among FBS linebackers with 16.5 tackles for loss. He also had four forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and an interception.
Second team: Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma
Barron was already widely viewed as one of the top cornerbacks in college football but only raised his stock in helping limit Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith to one catch for 3 yards in the Longhorns’ playoff semifinal loss at the Cotton Bowl. Barron, a 5-11, 200-pound redshirt senior, was the Thorpe Award winner as the best defensive back in college football and tied for the team lead in a talented secondary with five interceptions.
Second team: Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
In his second season at Cal after transferring from UNLV, Williams led all FBS players with seven interceptions and tied for third with 16 passes defended. He finished his college career with 14 interceptions and scored touchdowns this season on an 80-yard kickoff return in the opener against UC Davis and a 40-yard interception return against Cam Ward and Miami in a 39-38 loss to the Hurricanes.
Second team: D’Angelo Ponds, Indiana
Watts has been everything you could ask for in the back end of the Notre Dame defense. He erases mistakes, makes big plays in big moments and raises the game of everybody around him. The 6-foot, 203-pound redshirt senior leads all FBS safeties with six interceptions and is second on his team with 74 total tackles. He has 13 interceptions over his past two seasons and will go down as one of the best safeties in Notre Dame history.
Second team: Malaki Starks, Georgia
There’s no shortage of talent on the Ohio State defense, and adding Downs in the transfer portal helped spur the Buckeyes to the national championship game. He has uncanny instincts and is a force against both the run and pass. The 6-foot, 205-pound sophomore was a Thorpe Award finalist after earning Shaun Alexander Award honors as the national freshman of the year in his first season at Alabama. Downs ranks third on his team with 76 total tackles, including 7.5 for loss, and has two interceptions.
Second team: Michael Taaffe, Texas
SPECIAL TEAMS
Zvada came to Ann Arbor by way of Arkansas State and kicked his way into Michigan history in just one season. His winning 21-yard field goal in the final minute gave the Wolverines their fourth straight victory over rival Ohio State, and he was money all season for the Maize and Blue. Zvada was 21-of-22 on field goal attempts and made all seven of his tries from 50 yards or longer.
Second team: Kenneth Almendares, Louisiana
The Trojans led the country in net punting, and Czaplicki’s ability to keep opposing offenses backed up against their own goal line was a big part of USC’s improvement on defense. Czaplicki, the Ray Guy award winner as the nation’s best punter, averaged 47.8 yards per punt, and opponents returned only 13 of his kicks. He had just one touchback all season, and 25 of his 43 punts were downed inside the 20-yard line.
Second team: Alex Mastromanno, Florida State
Shanks did a little bit of everything for UAB. The redshirt freshman led the nation in punt return yards (329) and punt return average (20.6), and he returned two punts for touchdowns, including a 58-yarder against Tulsa; he accounted for 311 all-purpose yards and four TDs in the game. Shanks also tied for the team lead with 62 catches and racked up 656 receiving yards to go with six touchdown receptions.
Second team: Rayshawn Pleasant, Tulane
Sports
Dodgers the favorites? The next Darvish … or Clemens? What we know as we await Roki Sasaki’s decision
Happy Roki Sasaki Week!
After announcing his intention to come to MLB at the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the 23-year-old Japanese free agent immediately became the most coveted pitcher available this winter thanks to his combination of talent and age, and the parameters of his contract.
With the 2025 international free agent signing period opening Jan. 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closing on Jan. 23, we could find out where Sasaki is headed as soon as Wednesday.
Because Sasaki decided to come to the majors before his 25th birthday, he is limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus coming from a team’s international bonus pool (capped at just over $7.5 million). That makes the emerging ace a rare free agent star every team can afford to sign.
As we wait for Sasaki’s destination to come into focus, we asked our MLB experts what makes him so good, which major league pitchers he reminds us of, and which teams seem most likely to land him.
Monday update: Sasaki plans to sign with either the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres or Toronto Blue Jays at some point over the next week or so, sources told ESPN, with a cadre of big-name teams informed in recent days they are no longer in consideration.
What makes Sasaki such a coveted free agent?
Bradford Doolittle: He’s young, accomplished and with measurable tools that might make him baseball’s top prospect right now. But he’s not a prospect in the “maybe he’ll be ‘X’ if he reaches his ceiling” but one that’s already been successful in a high-level league and can slide into a big league rotation. A limited workload threshold, for now, is the only thing that’s really holding back Sasaki’s 2025 projection. With his full collection of team control seasons intact, there is no risk to signing him. And as good as he is now, he has room to grow in terms of his arsenal and how he fills out physically. You just don’t get a combination of factors all lining up like this, not the least of which Sasaki was so anxious to make the jump that he was willing to make max earnings a secondary factor.
Buster Olney: As we’ve seen with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and with Juan Soto — as we’ve witnessed all the way back to Alex Rodriguez — excellence at a young age is everything. Sasaki is expected to be a high-ceiling talent already at 23, and the team that lands him will have years of control while paying him relative pennies.
Kiley McDaniel: In describing his client’s upcoming potential nine-figure deal to me this winter, an agent underlined why he was confident that would happen, even if he had a down year, by saying: “age is a hack.” Rosters are getting younger, thus teams have more money to spend, but don’t want to offer long-term deals to older players, so they are (generally) seeking short-term free agent deals or trades for players with a year or two of control. That means long-term deals are generally acceptable to a large swath of teams only when they can land a standout young star still in his peak years. (like the Red Sox chasing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, extending Rafael Devers, but not offering huge money to any older players). Sasaki could be under team control for his entire peak of a bona fide ace, at a price every team can afford: a true unicorn of an opportunity for all 30 teams.
David Schoenfield: He is entering his age-23 season and it’s not a stretch to say he has the potential to be the best starter in baseball. In four years in Japan, he has a 2.02 ERA, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine. He has hit 102 mph and is 6-foot-3 and athletic. You can argue that he’s right up there on the Stephen Strasburg/Paul Skenes scale as a pitching prospect, except he has already dominated as a professional.
Which current or former MLB pitcher does he remind you of on the mound?
Schoenfield: With his power fastball/splitter combo, I think of two former MLB greats: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. There are certainly some similarities as well to Shohei Ohtani, although Ohtani slowly ramped down his splitter usage and didn’t use it much in 2022-23, going more often to his sweeper. In Japan in 2024, Sasaki induced a 57% whiff rate on his splitter, which would have ranked second in MLB behind Reds (now Yankees) reliever Fernando Cruz.
Doolittle: I don’t know that there is any one guy. The splitter kind of reminds me of the one Logan Gilbert throws, one with a spin rate so low it’s kind of freaky to watch in slow motion. The easy, heavy, hard stuff he offers kind of reminds me of Kevin Brown, only with a different fastball. The thing that’s most exciting about Sasaki is that it’s hard to call him the next so-and-so. He’s his own thing, and novelty is a great and too-rare thing in sports these days.
McDaniel: There isn’t a perfect comp, and Sasaki is still changing as a pitcher, so I’ll point out some players with qualities that are similar. Hunter Greene had a similar combination of arm speed and hype at the same age, along with some questions on his fastball shape and breaking ball quality. Obviously, Sasaki’s standout splitter has a number of comps to former NPB pitchers but only a handful of U.S.-born players, such as Clemens and Schilling. The total package (power fastball, slider, and splitter-ish offspeed pitch) is similar to Paul Skenes’, though Sasaki’s command and fourth and fifth pitch are areas he’ll need to address to have a chance to truly stand up to Skenes’ MLB debut.
Buster Olney: He reminds me of Yu Darvish, with his build and his rangy athleticism. He looks like he’ll have an ability to make adjustments, as needed. Darvish is known for being able to mimic the deliveries of other pitchers, and watching Sasaki move, it would not surprise me if he had the same gift.
Are there any concerns about how his game will translate from Japan to MLB?
McDaniel: Sasaki’s fastball shape and velocity regressed last season, his slider velocity also tailed off even more, he likely needs to add a fourth and maybe fifth pitch, and his execution within the strike zone could be a bit better. These are all simple enough on their own to be addressed in the first half of 2025 as long as Sasaki chooses a strong pitching development club, as I suspect he will. Some mechanical adjustments and mental cues could do a lot of the heavy lifting as these things can all be related. I would expect to see glimpses of Sasaki’s potential in 2025 while we wait until 2026 for the first dominating string of five or six starts in a row.
Olney: We really need our colleague Eduardo Perez to jump in here, because he’d be the one to tell us if Sasaki has any blatant tells such as pitch-tipping. That’s what Yamamoto experienced in his first months with the Dodgers. But Sasaki could have such excellent stuff that it doesn’t matter. His splitter seems to be so good that it won’t be hit even if the batter knows it’s coming.
Doolittle: Well, the different ball means we don’t know exactly how the measurements on his pitches will change, but that’s not a major concern. He looked great in the World Baseball Classic which offers a nice preview of that adjustment. It’s really durability. He has never thrown a lot of innings, his best pitch is a splitter and his velo was down last season. These things would be much more worrisome if he was getting a Yamamoto-like contract, but he’s not. I’ve seen his splitter carry an 80-grade and when you match that with a triple-digit fastball that moves and a track record of plus command, health is the only thing there is to worry about.
Schoenfield: The same as every starter: Health and durability. He has topped out at 20 starts and 129 innings in Japan, back in 2022. His fastball velocity was down a bit in 2024 as he missed time with a torn oblique and shoulder fatigue. He’ll also have to adjust to facing more power hitters than he faced in Japan.
Are the Dodgers the team to beat as his decision approaches?
Doolittle: They always are.
McDaniel: They are the most likely landing spot and have been seen that way for a while, but don’t underrate how little we truly know about Sasaki’s process of eliminating and ultimately choosing a club. We have some clues and potential leans, but don’t truly know very much right now.
Olney: Sure, because they seemingly land every player they want, with a bottomless pit of money. The Dodgers will be the team to beat for years on the field, and off.
Schoenfield: I’ll say no. I’m betting on Sasaki wanting to forge his own path and signing with a team that doesn’t already have Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Which other teams do you think have the best chance of landing him?
McDaniel: The Padres, led by their ultra-aggressive GM A.J. Preller, are perceived as the second-most-likely landing spot behind the Dodgers, and San Diego clearly needs Sasaki more: He would change the outlook for the whole franchise. Beyond that, we’re mostly guessing from teams we know he has met with that seem to have a good environment for Sasaki to develop and compete in meaningful games: the Giants, Mariners, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Rangers seem to come up the most but I can’t even say that’s a complete list of teams getting a long look.
Doolittle: For me, the Mets stand out. Sasaki and his representation have been pretty opaque when it comes to offering glimpses of his thinking, which has led to a lot of reading between the lines. It’s such a rare thing for a player of this caliber to be able to choose any team he wants with money barely being a part of the equation. So who knows? The Mets offer a good pitching environment, a strong possibility of sustained contention and a budding pitching development program highlighted by the pitching lab they built in Port Saint Lucie. Why be another Dodger?
Olney: It’s pretty evident that Sasaki is not afraid to ignore conventional wisdom, in the same way Ohtani did when he arrived — he passed up many, many tens of millions of dollars by pushing to get to the majors now, rather than just waiting. With that in mind, I think the Padres will be the most intriguing alternative to the Dodgers, because of the weather, Darvish’s presence and the chance to play against the best, in the same division.
Schoenfield: If Sasaki is primarily concerned with his own development as a pitcher, is there a better place than Seattle? Unlike the Dodgers, the Mariners have kept their young starters healthy. They also play in a great pitcher’s park, they play on the West Coast and it’s not like Seattle doesn’t have a chance to win. But we haven’t heard much about the Mariners being in the running.
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