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Many Conservative councillors face certain defeat on 2 May. The party will lose control of councils at the same time. The scale of this setback, so close to the general election, is the main consideration.

The national polls paint a gloomy picture; public confidence in the government is low, only a quarter of voters intend to vote Conservative. The Opposition is riding high, some commentators reckon Labour is on course for a large Commons majority.

Recent parliamentary by-elections largely confirm this, with record swings against the Conservatives and Labour performing strongly.

The one sliver of hope for Rishi Sunak’s party might be that national polls exaggerate support for Reform and public distaste for the Conservatives.

At stake are more than 2,600 seats across 107 English councils. Voters in London are choosing both the Assembly and Mayor, where Sadiq Khan is pursuing and probably securing an unprecedented third term.

Mayoral voting here, and for ten other so-called “super mayors”, including West Midlands and Greater Manchester, is now by “first past the post” rather than the Supplementary Vote.

The same reform applies to the selection of 37 Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs). It is their re-election which guarantees electors across England and Wales have a vote this time.

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Most of the contests next week relate to the 2021 elections.

Then, the Conservatives were riding high, Brexit was done and a successful COVID vaccine rolled-out.

An estimate of the national equivalent vote (NEV) based on those results, put Boris Johnson’s party on 40%, its highest rating since 2008.

Labour was ten points back and instead of gaining council seats from the governing party, usual at this stage of the parliamentary cycle, it was losing them.

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Conservative mayors were re-elected in West Midlands and Tees Valley and the party won 30 PCC elections.

Fast forward three years, via Mr Johnson’s fall from grace, Liz Truss’s blink of an eye premiership and Mr Sunak’s unopposed elevation, we find the Conservatives in freefall. Sky News’ poll tracker currently puts them on 23.5%.

That’s a drop of over sixteen percentage points from May 2021.

By contrast, Labour is heading upwards, from 30% to 43.5% now.

This is a 15-point swing from Conservative to Labour. Conservative councillors sitting on 30% majorities or less over Labour rivals feel vulnerable. The Conservatives are only defending 18 councils, but if things are this bad then they could lose half of them.

But will the Conservatives and Labour perform like this on 2 May? Another measure of electoral support, gleaned from council by-elections, says not.

Over the past year there have been 159 council by-elections across England and Wales. These too have been mostly dire for the Conservatives. Asked to defend 46 vacancies, the party has lost 28 of them, a 61% failure rate.

However, half of these losses are to the Liberal Democrats. The Greens have made five gains, only one fewer than Labour’s total. Moreover, the Conservatives have gained five seats from Labour.

This hardly supports the view Labour are a shoo-in for the next general election.

Consider also changes in vote share in these contests. The average fall in the Conservative vote from 2021 is about 11 percentage points, putting them closer to a nationwide 30% and not 23% as the polls are suggesting.

Similarly, local voting data puts Labour in the range 36-40%, and not comfortably over that figure.

Which of these indicators, national polls or local voting, works best in explaining events on 2 May remains to be seen, but it does require setting relatively wide benchmarks for what constitutes good, indifferent or bad performances.

What are the Conservatives hoping for?

Should the Conservatives suffer minimal losses, say 100 council seats and control of super-marginal councils like Dorset, Gloucester, Redditch and Thurrock, it will claim that as a victory.

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Should losses rise to 250 seats, council control is lost in Harlow, North East Lincolnshire and a mayoral incumbent is defeated, the Conservatives might have taken a step backwards, but the damage inflicted is not as great as many were expecting.

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Losses of around 500 seats, about half the seats it is defending and possibly half of its 18 councils too, will destabilise the party.

Most likely, Andy Street loses in West Midlands and possibly Ben Houchen in Tees Valley also. A sizeable chunk of the country will see Conservative PCCs replaced by Labour ones.

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Inevitable comparisons with crushing local election defeats in the run-up to the 1997 general election defeat will convince some of its backbenchers to demand yet another change of leader.

But, it’s not plain sailing for Labour.

The party has faced an exodus of about a hundred councillors, mostly regarding events in the Middle East, but some against Sir Keir Starmer’s move towards the centre ground.

Inevitably, Labour’s performance in key areas will be assessed in light of its task in winning power at Westminster. It needs to win in Dudley, one of only three metropolitan boroughs still in Conservative hands.

Last year the two parties tied in votes and seats, and results this time will reveal if Labour is on track.

The Conservatives are running hard in the inaugural battle for East Midlands mayor. They have selected Ben Bradley, MP for Mansfield, one of eight former Labour seats in the region captured in 2017 or 2019.

The North West offers challenges. George Galloway’s victory in the Rochdale by-election sees his Workers’ Party now contesting for votes in Labour wards.

There is internal party strife in Burnley, now the most marginal Conservative seat in the country, with some Labour councillors preferring status as Independents. Labour’s councillors in Pendle last month resigned from the party and in some cases are standing against their former party at the local elections.

Like it or not, Sir Keir faces comparison with Sir Tony Blair, electorally the most successful Labour leader; someone who took on and beat the Conservatives across swathes of the midlands and southern England.

Labour has to perform in councils like Harlow, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Swindon and Redditch. For good measure, Labour this time could reach parts hitherto denied them.

It won in Worthing in 2022 and now it is poised to take control of neighbouring Adur council too.

Rushmoor, a district council covering Aldershot and Farnborough, has been Conservative controlled for much of its 51-year existence. Labour gains this time could oust the Conservatives and even take power itself for the first time.

What are Labour’s benchmarks for success?

About 350 seat gains for Labour consolidates its position as the largest party of local government, but if it wants favourable comparisons with the Blair-era it should aim higher. Fewer gains, say around 200 seats, suggests the national polls are over-estimating its lead over the Conservatives.

If the gains are lower still then internal pressures will mount and betting on a Labour majority will reflect that, despite the party doubtless gaining another victory at the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.

But Labour can ill-afford unfavourable comparisons of its performance against those of the Liberal Democrats and even the Greens.

What about the Lib Dems?

The Liberal Democrats could become major players after the next general election if Labour falls short of a Commons’ majority. Sir Ed Davey’s party should secure control of Wokingham and perhaps Dorset.

Seat gains of about 150 and upwards will demonstrate a real threat to the Conservatives.

And the Greens?

Last year the Greens secured their first council, Mid Suffolk, and are advancing in councils like Worcester, but a real boost may lie in Bristol.

The whole council is up for re-election with the Labour-owned city mayoralty now abandoned. Greens are the largest party and need gains from Labour and the Conservatives to nudge towards an overall majority.

Labour is targeting Conservative seats and is hopeful it can become the largest party.

This is only one of 107 councils, but the bragging rights should Labour or Green secure a majority are immense.

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OKX CEO apologizes after ‘false positives’ lock users out of accounts

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OKX CEO apologizes after ‘false positives’ lock users out of accounts

The CEO of OKX says that “false positives” are among the biggest challenges the crypto exchange faces in ensuring global compliance.

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One year of Starmer: Nine charts that tell us whether Labour’s first year has been a success or failure

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One year of Starmer: Nine charts that tell us whether Labour's first year has been a success or failure

It might feel like it’s been even longer for the prime minister at the moment, but it’s been a whole year since Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a historic landslide, emphatically defeating Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and securing a 174-seat majority.

Over that time, Sir Keir and his party have regularly reset or restated their list of milestones, missions, targets and pledges – things they say they will achieve while in power (so long as they can get all their policies past their own MPs).

We’ve had a look at the ones they have repeated most consistently, and how they are going so far.

Overall, it amounts to what appears to be some success on economic metrics, but limited progress at best towards many of their key policy objectives.

From healthcare to housebuilding, from crime to clean power, and from small boats to squeezed budgets, here are nine charts that show the country’s performance before and after Labour came to power, and how close the government are to achieving their goals.

Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street.
Pic Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer has been in office for a year. Pic Reuters

Cost of living

On paper, the target that Labour have set themselves on improving living standards is by quite a distance the easiest to achieve of anything they have spoken about.

They have not set a specific number to aim for, and every previous parliament on record has overseen an increase in real terms disposable income.

The closest it got to not happening was the last parliament, though. From December 2019 to June 2024, disposable income per quarter rose by just £24, thanks in part to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

By way of comparison, there was a rise of almost £600 per quarter during the five years following Thatcher’s final election victory in 1987, and over £500 between Blair’s 1997 victory and his 2001 re-election.

After the first six months of the latest government, it had risen by £144, the fastest start of any government going back to at least 1954. As of March, it had fallen to £81, but that still leaves them second at this stage, behind only Thatcher’s third term.

VERDICT: Going well, but should have been more ambitious with their target

Get inflation back to 2%

So, we have got more money to play with. But it might not always feel like that, as average prices are still rising at a historically high rate.

Inflation fell consistently during the last year and a half of Rishi Sunak’s premiership, dropping from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to exactly 2% – the Bank of England target – in June 2024.

It continued to fall in Labour’s first couple of months, but has steadily climbed back up since then and reached 3.4% in May.

When we include housing costs as well, prices are up by 4% in the last year. Average wages are currently rising by just over 5%, so that explains the overall improvement in living standards that we mentioned earlier.

But there are signs that the labour market is beginning to slow following the introduction of higher national insurance rates for employers in April.

If inflation remains high and wages begin to stagnate, we will see a quick reversal to the good start the government have made on disposable income.

VERDICT: Something to keep an eye on – there could be a bigger price to pay in years to come

‘Smash the gangs’

One of Starmer’s most memorable promises during the election campaign was that he would “smash the gangs”, and drastically reduce the number of people crossing the Channel to illegally enter the country.

More than 40,000 people have arrived in the UK in small boats in the 12 months since Labour came to power, a rise of over 12,000 (40%) compared with the previous year.

Labour have said that better weather in the first half of this year has contributed to more favourable conditions for smugglers, but our research shows crossings have also risen on days when the weather is not so good.

VERDICT: As it stands, it looks like “the gangs” are smashing the government

Reduce NHS waits

One of Labour’s more ambitious targets, and one in which they will be relying on big improvements in years to come to achieve.

Starmer says that no more than 8% of people will wait longer than 18 weeks for NHS treatment by the time of the next election.

When they took over, it was more than five times higher than that. And it still is now, falling very slightly from 41.1% to 40.3% over the 10 months that we have data for.

So not much movement yet. Independent modelling by the Health Foundation suggests that reaching the target is “still feasible”, though they say it will demand “focus, resource, productivity improvements and a bit of luck”.

VERDICT: Early days, but current treatment isn’t curing the ailment fast enough

Halve violent crime

It’s a similar story with policing. Labour aim to achieve their goal of halving serious violent crime within 10 years by recruiting an extra 13,000 officers, PCSOs and special constables.

Recruitment is still very much ongoing, but workforce numbers have only been published up until the end of September, so we can’t tell what progress has been made on that as yet.

We do have numbers, however, on the number of violent crimes recorded by the police in the first six months of Labour’s premiership. There were a total of 1.1m, down by 14,665 on the same period last year, a decrease of just over 1%.

That’s not nearly enough to reach a halving within the decade, but Labour will hope that the reduction will accelerate once their new officers are in place.

VERDICT: Not time for flashing lights just yet, but progress is more “foot patrol” than “high-speed chase” so far

Build 1.5m new homes

One of Labour’s most ambitious policies was the pledge that they would build a total of 1.5m new homes in England during this parliament.

There has not yet been any new official data published on new houses since Labour came to power, but we can use alternative figures to give us a sense of how it’s going so far.

A new Energy Performance Certificate is granted each time a new home is built – so tends to closely match the official house-building figures – and we have data up to March for those.

Those numbers suggest that there have actually been fewer new properties added recently than in any year since 2015-16.

Labour still have four years to deliver on this pledge, but each year they are behind means they need to up the rate more in future years.

If the 200,000 new EPCs in the year to March 2025 matches the number of new homes they have delivered in their first year, Labour will need to add an average of 325,000 per year for the rest of their time in power to achieve their goal.

VERDICT: Struggling to lay solid foundations

Clean power by 2030

Another of the more ambitious pledges, Labour’s aim is for the UK to produce 95% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.

They started strong. The ban on new onshore wind turbines was lifted within their first few days of government, and they delivered support for 131 new renewable energy projects in the most recent funding round in September.

But – understandably – it takes time for those new wind farms, solar farms and tidal plants to be built and start contributing to the grid.

In the year leading up to Starmer’s election as leader, 54% of the energy on the UK grid had been produced by renewable sources in the UK.

That has risen very slightly in the year since then, to 55%, with a rise in solar and biomass offsetting a slight fall in wind generation.

The start of this year has been unusually lacking in wind, and this analysis does not take variations in weather into account. The government target will adjust for that, but they are yet to define exactly how.

VERDICT: Not all up in smoke, but consistent effort is required before it’s all sunshine and windmills

Fastest economic growth in the G7

Labour’s plan to pay for the improvements they want to make in all the public services we have talked about above can be summarised in one word: “growth”.

The aim is for the UK’s GDP – the financial value of all the goods and services produced in the country – to grow faster than any other in the G7 group of advanced economies.

Since Labour have been in power, the economy has grown faster than European rivals Italy, France and Germany, as well as Japan, but has lagged behind the US and Canada.

The UK did grow fastest in the most recent quarter we have data for, however, from the start of the year to the end of March.

VERDICT: Good to be ahead of other similar European economies, but still a way to go to overtake the North Americans

No tax rises

Without economic growth, it will be difficult to keep to one of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ biggest promises – that there will be no more tax rises or borrowing for the duration of her government’s term.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said last month that she is a “gnat’s whisker” away from being forced to do that at the autumn budget, looking at the state of the economy at the moment.

That whisker will have been shaved even closer by the cost implications of the government’s failure to get its full welfare reform bill through parliament earlier this week.

And income tax thresholds are currently frozen until April 2028, meaning there is already a “stealth” hike scheduled for all of us every year.

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One year of Keir: A review of Starmer’s first 12 months in office

But the news from the last financial year was slightly better than expected. Total tax receipts for the year ending March 2025 were 35% of GDP.

That’s lower than the previous four years, and what was projected after Jeremy Hunt’s final Conservative budget, but higher than any of the 50 years before that.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) still projects it to rise in future years though, to a higher level than the post-WWII peak of 37.2%.

The OBR – a non-departmental public body that provides independent analysis of the public finances – has also said in the past few days that it is re-examining its methodology, because it has been too optimistic with its forecasts in the past.

If the OBR’s review leads to a more negative view of where the economy is going, Rachel Reeves could be forced to break her promise to keep the budget deficit from spiralling out of control.

VERDICT: It’s going to be difficult for the Chancellor to keep to her promise

OVERALL VERDICT: Investment and attention towards things like violent crime, the NHS and clean energy are yet to start bearing fruit, with only minuscule shifts in the right direction for each, but the government is confident that what’s happened so far is part of its plans.

Labour always said that the house-building target would be achieved with a big surge towards the back end of their term, but they won’t be encouraged by the numbers actually dropping in their first few months.

Where they are failing most dramatically, however, appears to be in reducing the number of migrants making the dangerous Channel crossing on small boats.

The economic news, particularly that rise in disposable income, looks more healthy at the moment. But with inflation still high and growth lagging behind some of our G7 rivals, that could soon start to turn.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Sweden’s justice minister says to ‘turn up the pressure’ on crypto seizures

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Sweden’s justice minister says to ‘turn up the pressure’ on crypto seizures

Gunnar Strömmer reportedly said that Swedish authorities had confiscated more than $8.3 million worth of criminal profits since a law related to seizures was passed in 2024.

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