Who wins Game 7? Key players, final score predictions for Canucks-Oilers
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6 months agoon
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adminIt’s all come down to this. The Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers have fought to a tie through six games in a battle for Western Canadian supremacy.
Game 7 (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) will determine which team moves on to face the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference finals, and which team is headed to the golf course.
Which players will play an outsized role for each team Monday night, and who wins?
Who is the one player you’ll be watching for the Canucks?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Elias Pettersson. Let’s go back to February. The Canucks went 10-3 for the month, and Petterson was a massive reason for that success. He scored 14 goals, which added to the belief that he and the Canucks could pose a problem in the playoffs. Since then, he has struggled to find offensive consistency, but does have points in the last two games.
He’s provided the sort of defensive reliability that’s justified why he continues to earn high minutes, with the idea his ability to create and score goals could be waiting to explode. It’s not that the Canucks need Pettersson to score to win games. But if he can add another layer to what they’ve already done? It could play a monumental role in the Canucks reaching the Western Conference finals.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: J.T. Miller. If Miller’s line can again limit Connor McDavid — which they excelled at doing in Game 5 — his club sports a much greater chance of pulling off the series-deciding victory at home. A key goal from the heart-and-soul player of this Vancouver squad would also go a long way. The Canucks’ regular-season scoring leader has a pair of tallies thus far this series, including the third-period game-winner in the 3-2 victory in Game 5 at Rogers Arena.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Arturs Silovs. He’s been terrific and fun to watch this postseason. Game 6 wasn’t his best, allowing five goals on 27 shots. This is the biggest game of his career. Will he rise up to the challenge? He certainly has so far, especially after two Canucks goalies have fallen to injury. A victory against Edmonton would grow the Silovs legend exponentially.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Dakota Joshua. The Canucks won’t have Brock Boeser in Game 7, and that ups the ante for every other forward to produce (Boeser leads Vancouver with 12 points in 12 postseason games).
Joshua heard it from J.T. Miller in Game 6 as emotions boiled over for the Canucks. Game 7 is a chance for Joshua to show he not only got the message, but is capable of contributing even more up front. Edmonton’s stars will be pressing and the Canucks need their top six to respond in kind. Joshua has four goals and eight points through 12 games — this is a moment for him to truly help fill the void in a series where the pendulum swings have been massive.
If it’s going back in Vancouver’s direction, Joshua best be part of the solution.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Quinn Hughes. We haven’t seen a definitive moment for Hughes in this series, unless you count getting slashed open by Connor McDavid’s high stick in Game 2 as such a moment. Only two goals have been scored with Hughes on the ice at 5-on-5 in this series, one for Vancouver and one for Edmonton. He was even through six games against the Nashville Predators as well (three goals for and against).
Game 7 provides the expected Norris Trophy winner with a grand stage for a statement game, especially in a series where another great young defensemen — Evan Bouchard of the Oilers — has made the much greater impact.
Who is the one player you’ll be watching for the Oilers?
Clark: Stuart Skinner. What stands before Skinner is a chance to have a defining performance. A win adds to the belief that Skinner might be capable of helping the Oilers win a title. A loss could potentially lead to more hypotheticals and questions about if Skinner is the answer in net, long term.
Perhaps that’s too much to place upon one person. But this is also the reality of the Oilers at the moment. They’ve seen teams such as the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights win Stanley Cups. They now have a chance to return to the Western Conference finals for the second time in three years where they’ll face a Dallas Stars team that’s also looking to be the third straight Western team to win it all. That is what it means to be the Oilers, and this is what it means to be Stuart Skinner.
Matiash: Leon Draisaitl. I’ll go with the figure who just joined Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux in rounding out the trio of fastest players to reach 100 career playoff points. The same clutch skater who has registered at least one point in every postseason contest so far, averaging a league-leading 2.09 points per game. Unless the Canucks can somewhat stifle Edmonton’s “other” superstar, we’re likely in for an Oilers-Stars conference finals.
Öcal: Connor McDavid. “Gee thanks Arda. Are you in commercials, because you’re being Captain Obvious.” But hear me out. McDavid has had two “McDavid-esque” games so far this series, as well as three games (3, 4 and 5) where he wasn’t his explosive self, and had one assist across that stretch. If McDavid is held off the scoresheet in Game 7, the Oilers will lose.
This is the third Game 7 in the McDavid era for the Oilers. In 2017, McDavid had zero points in 24 minutes of ice time in a Game 7 loss against the Ducks in the second round.Fast forward to 2022, Connor gets a goal and assist in 27 minutes of ice time in a Game 7 win against the Kings in the opening round. The best player in the world must show up.
Shilton: Stuart Skinner. It’s one thing to win in Game 6 when all the pressure is firmly on your opponent to close the deal. It’s another story in Game 7, when urgency and desperation will be sky-high on both sides. Can Skinner handle the heat in that situation?
Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch put his faith in Skinner to help the Oilers survive another day by tapping him for Game 6. But it doesn’t mean much if Skinner falls apart again in Game 7. He has every right to feel confident and reassured after a strong return to the crease on Saturday. Now it’s a case of “don’t change much” despite Vancouver projecting to push harder than ever to reach that Western Conference finals. Skinner’s performance could be the difference between whether Edmonton can keep the Canucks at bay one last time.
Wyshynski: Evan Bouchard. As I mentioned in discussing Quinn Hughes, Bouchard has been the most impactful defenseman in this series. Edmonton is a plus-6 in goal differential when he’s on the ice at 5-on-5; that balloons to a plus-11 in all situations. He’s tied with McDavid in points scored in the series with nine (both of them trailing Draisaitl, at 13). Bouchard is leading the Oilers in average ice time (26:35).
He had the game-winning goals in Games 2 and 4, and has points in five of six games. Can he be the Game 7 hero, too?
The final score will be _______.
Clark: Canucks 4-3. Maybe this isn’t the final scoreline exactly. But the chances of Game 7 being decided by a single goal is extremely realistic. Until Game 6, every game of this series has been decided by a goal. Furthermore, the Canucks had played nine consecutive one-goal games this postseason until they lost Game 6. It’s possible that the Oilers could have another offensive outburst. But in a series that’s been so tight, it would be fitting that the final conclusion is decided by the narrowest of margins.
Matiash: Oilers 3-2, with Draisaitl scoring the game-winner in OT. Don’t get me wrong, a frenzied goal-fest would be more fun, preferably decided in the waning minutes (overtime would be even better). But is that too big of an ask, considering how infective either side’s power play has been of late? While Edmonton has one goal with the extra skater since Game 3, the Canucks are 0-for-11. Plus, in the spirit of not overthinking matters, two of the last three games in this series have been decided by a score of 3-2. So there’s that.
Öcal: Oilers 6-4. I know, I know, how can a Game 7 be a track meet when players typically play not to make mistakes and nobody wants to be “that guy,” right? This one feels different. I say it blows wide open and we see a back and forth battle between two exciting teams. 5-4 late in the third, empty-netter to seal it.
Shilton: Canucks 5-4. There will be goals. Lots of them. There will be pressure. Lots of it. In the end, Vancouver can get it done with the right focus and execution from throughout their lineup, from stars to role players. The Canucks and Oilers both have great depth, but if Vancouver can maximize its entire bench they can squeeze by Edmonton in a nail biter and punch their ticket to the WCF.
Wyshynski: Oilers 3-2 in overtime. Both teams have shown the ability to defend well. In the Canucks’ case, it’s in the team DNA; in the Oilers’ case, it’s a bit more scattershot game to game. Both teams will bring that defensive aptitude in Game 7.
Vancouver can be shut down offensively: In Game 6, the Canucks were held to 15 shots (or fewer) for the third time this postseason. That’s tied for the second-most in a single postseason since first tracked in 1959-60, tied with the 1988 Bruins (3) and trailing only the 1998 Stars (4). A tightly played game will end up in overtime, and one of the Oilers’ skill players makes a play while Stuart Skinner holds the fort.
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Trout vs. Harper in October? No Astros title in 2017? What if every World Series was between No. 1 seeds?
Published
6 hours agoon
November 11, 2024By
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff WriterNov 11, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
- Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
- Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
- Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association
For just the third time since 2012, the teams with each league’s best regular-season record met in the World Series. What if that happened every year?
For decades, that was how Major League Baseball worked. The best players on the best teams went from the top of the standings on the final day of the regular season directly to a yearly opportunity to write the October narrative in the World Series. With every addition to the postseason since it expanded to four teams in 1969, the odds of the best teams being the last two standing have gotten a little longer. The format has controlled the narrative.
The stories we remember about a season are largely driven by the structure that it employs, intentional choices made by the league’s designers about the schedule, the alignment and the playoff field. From 1903 through 1968, there was only one possible way to play in the Fall Classic. Thus, the narratives about a big chunk of baseball history are told through that prism. It’s a prism that hasn’t been applicable very often during the wild-card era.
Today, we’re playing a little what-if. What if the dynamic that was in place for the American League and National League all those years — no playoffs but simply pitting the two first-place teams against each other in the Fall Classic — never changed?
Yes, baseball would have still added teams over time and moved teams into different markets and such, but the World Series would remain the domain of the league’s two pennant winners. Everyone else goes home once the game meter hits 162.
The 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers–New York Yankees showdown reminded us just how big the matchups could feel, and the alternate realities that emerge in these scenarios over recent years are as rich in possibilities, both for the changed regular seasons as well as the World Series. What’s lost is everything that happened between the end of the regular season and the start of the Fall Classic — no wild-card games, no division series, no championship series. That’s a lot of dramatic moments lost to oblivion, which we must bear in mind.
Obviously, the stories we’d remember about each season would be very different, but would they be better or worse? Keeping our focus on the current four-round playoff era, let’s rewrite recent baseball history.
Note: Numbers in parentheses represent league rank by won-lost record, not playoff seed. Where needed, ties were broken based on head-to-head results.
Actual World Series: (3) San Francisco Giants over (7) Detroit Tigers
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
What’s gained: The gains in the regular season would have been considerable. In our alternate AL, the Yankees won the pennant by one game over the Athletics and two over the Orioles and Rangers. The Yankees were four games back of Texas on Labor Day, so it would have been a torrid stretch run that put the Bombers over the top. Going into the last week of the season, six teams would have been mathematically alive, and one of them would have been the real-life pennant winner, Detroit.
The final days of the season would have been epic. The Yankees beat Boston three times in a row to hold on to the flag over the A’s, who won their last six games only to fall short. In doing so, the Athletics nudged aside the Rangers, whom they swept to end the campaign. In the Yankees’ clincher in Game 162, Robinson Cano went 4-for-4 with two homers and six RBIs in a memorable 14-2 drubbing of the Red Sox. By the middle innings, it would have been clear: The Yankees win the pennant!
The NL stretch run would have been almost as dramatic. The Nats edge the Reds by a single game, with the Braves and real-life champion Giants finishing four back. Everyone else would have been eliminated entering the final week. That pennant race would have also been decided on the final day.
The Series would have been a juicy matchup featuring current and soon-to-be superstars. That Yankees team had Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones and CC Sabathia, among others, though Mariano Rivera was injured. The Nationals, seeking a franchise-first championship, had two emergent young stars: budding ace Stephen Strasburg and a 19-year-old rookie named Bryce Harper who was playing in his first World Series.
What’s lost: The Giants-Tigers World Series pitted the two eventual MVPs — Buster Posey and Miguel Cabrera — against each other. Bruce Bochy, without the expanded playoffs, would not only lose this title in a classic-format universe — he’d lose all four of the championships he has won.
In the regular season, we would have lost the AL Central race in which Detroit edged the White Sox by three games and led them by just one game with a week to go. We would have also lost a pair of semi-close races for the second wild-card slot in each league.
2013: Red Sox-Cardinals remains
Actual World Series: (1) Boston Red Sox over (1) St. Louis Cardinals
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Same
What’s gained: Before 2024, this was the last full season that yielded a one-versus-one World Series matchup. So our alternate reality season ends up in the same place. The biggest changes in narrative would have been the September chases in both leagues.
In the AL, only three teams are alive entering the final week, and the focus is on Boston’s one-game lead over Oakland. The Red Sox hang on despite losing two one-run games at Baltimore to finish the season. The Athletics are eliminated in Game 161, losing 7-5 in Seattle thanks to a two-homer, five-RBI outburst from Brad Miller.
Over in the NL, the final week is operatic. Five teams are alive with seven days to go, and they are all within 2½ games of each other — the Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds and Pirates. The Cardinals were five back of Atlanta on Labor Day but have been coming on strong down the stretch. With no margin for error, the Redbirds win their last six and 10 of their last 12. The clincher comes on the final day with a 4-0 whitewashing of the Cubs.
What’s lost: Cleveland, Texas and Tampa Bay all finished within a game of each other for the two AL wild-card slots. The Rangers and Rays tied for the last spot and in the classic format we would have lost the Rays’ 5-2 victory in a tiebreaker, a victory that featured David Price‘s complete-game win. Also, in the playoffs, we lose Detroit’s five-game win over Oakland in the ALDS. The Tigers won Game 5 behind a gem from Justin Verlander, who went eight two-hit innings with 10 strikeouts.
In the NL races, nothing too dramatic would have gone by the wayside. However, in the classic format, the Pirates would still be stuck in a long postseason drought. When the Pirates earned a wild-card slot in 2013, as they went on to do in 2014 and 2015 as well, they made the playoffs for the first time since 1992. In the classic format, the drought would stretch back to 1991, but the upside is that Pittsburgh owned the NL’s best record in both 1990 and 1991, and thus would have seen a pair of Barry Bonds-led pennant winners in those campaigns.
2014: Mike Trout(!) vs. Bryce Harper
Actual World Series: (5) San Francisco Giants over (4) Kansas City Royals
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals
What’s gained: Both leagues would have featured uncrowded races in the season’s final days. In the AL, the Angels held a 2½-game edge on the Orioles with a week to go. In the NL, Washington led the Dodgers by the same margin, though the Cardinals were still alive at 4½ games back. The Angels and Nationals both ended up winning by two games, and neither pennant was still up for grabs on the final day.
With pennant race drama somewhat muted in 2014, the focus would have been on the amazing individual matchup in the World Series, which would be remembered as the Mike Trout-Bryce Harper World Series. Trout, 22, won his first MVP that season, though his 2012 and 2013 seasons were even better. In real life, 2014 was his only playoff appearance; but in the classic format, that would have come in the Fall Classic. That particular albatross is one he would have shed long ago.
Harper would be making his second World Series appearance, though 2014 wasn’t his best season. Early injuries and struggles left him with just three homers through the end of July. However, Harper caught fire after that, hitting 10 homers over the last two months, and would have been firing on all cylinders by the time the clash with Trout came to pass. This year’s Aaron Judge–Shohei Ohtani hype would have included something like “the best World Series superstar matchup since Mike Trout and Bryce Harper a decade ago.”
What’s lost: The Royals and Tigers would have been out of the running, their AL Central battle lost. Kansas City, which won the pennant as a wild card, would still be working on a long playoff drought. Its amazing comeback in the epic wild-card game against Oakland would never have happened. And not only would Bochy lose another title, as mentioned, but the Giants would not be a three-time champion in the 2010s. Indeed, they might still be looking for their first San Francisco title. But maybe not — stay tuned.
2015: An in-state Fall Classic
Actual World Series: (1) Kansas City Royals over (5) New York Mets
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
What’s gained: For 2015, we have to begin with that World Series matchup. Thirty years after the first I-70 Series, the Cardinals get a chance for revenge. St. Louis skipper Mike Matheny would have been managing in the Series against the team he eventually managed. But you have to wonder: Matheny only managed St. Louis for two more full seasons after 2015. If he had led the Cardinals to another World Series (in addition to 2013), would it have been longer?
In the AL pennant race, four teams were alive entering the last week, with the Royals and Blue Jays tied for the lead. They were still tied entering the final weekend, on which Toronto lost two straight at Tampa Bay. The Royals grabbed the lead on the second-to-last day, beating Minnesota behind a gem from Yordano Ventura. Meanwhile, the Jays lose a gut puncher on a two-out, two-run game-winning single by the Rays’ Tim Beckham against Toronto closer Roberto Osuna. Kansas City wraps it on the final day, beating Minnesota again to finish the season with a five-game winning streak.
The 100-win Cardinals cruise to the NL pennant despite being shut out in their last three games during a sweep in Atlanta. St. Louis had the NL wrapped up before that series began but, obviously, the Cardinals would not have entered the Fall Classic matchup against the red-hot Royals on a good note. The Cubs and Pirates faded, but they were both within striking distance of the Cardinals going into the last week.
What’s lost: The rise of the Cubs would have been a hot story in any context. But in real life, Chicago earned a wild-card spot and advanced to the NLCS, losing to another hot story in the pitching-rich Mets. The Matt Harvey phenomenon? Much less muted on a fifth-place team out of the running by the middle of September.
There would have been a lot of good playoff baseball lost. The Mets beating the Dodgers in a five-game NLDS, with Jacob deGrom shining in the clincher. The Royals’ come-from-behind ALDS win over Houston, gone. Kansas City’s dramatic six-game ALCS win over Toronto, poof.
We also would have lost a seminal what-if: Had the Mets not made the playoffs, then Harvey would not have been on the mound in the ninth inning of the last game of the World Series. Would his career have turned out differently had that never happened?
2016: The Cubs vs. … ?
Actual World Series: (1) Chicago Cubs over (2) Cleveland
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Cubs vs. TBD (Cleveland or Texas Rangers)
What’s gained: A crowded AL pennant race would have gone to overtime. As of Labor Day, six teams would have been in the running, all within 6½ games. By the time we hit the final week, that number was down to four, with the Red Sox and Rangers tied for the lead, 1½ games ahead of Cleveland, and the Blue Jays clinging to hope, down 5½ games.
With the pennant race reaching its crescendo, Cleveland ran into bad weather in Detroit. Their game on Thursday, Sept. 29, is washed out and can’t be made up until the day after the regular season. This happened in real life. Texas finished a half-game ahead of Cleveland for the AL’s top seed, but since the Rangers owned the rulebook tiebreaker, and tiebreaker games aren’t played just to determine a seed, the makeup game was never played.
However, in the classic format, it would have been. Had Cleveland won that makeup game in Detroit, it would then have played the Rangers in a tiebreaker for the AL pennant. Thus we might have gotten our Cubs-Indians World Series after all — and arguably in a much more dramatic fashion. Meanwhile, the Red Sox missed a chance to really muddle the end-of-season waters by losing two straight one-run games at Fenway Park against Toronto to finish the campaign.
As for those Cubs, they pretty much made a shambles of the NL, so there was zero pennant-race drama down the stretch.
What’s lost: Once again, dramatic wild-card races drew our eyeballs as the season wound down. As with all seasons like this, where the wild-card races are the closest ones, our attention drifts to the middle of the standings. The Mets and Giants edged St. Louis by one game for two NL slots, while Baltimore and Toronto held off Detroit and Seattle in the AL. There weren’t any division races with even a semblance of drama in 2016, so all the down-the-stretch attention was fixed on the wild cards. This would not have been the case in the classic format.
As for the playoffs, we had just one series go the distance. That was in the NLDS, where the Dodgers eked past the Nationals, winning Game 5 4-3. That was the game where Kenley Jansen threw 2⅓ scoreless relief frames and Clayton Kershaw got the last two outs for what remains his only career save.
The real drama was the 2016 World Series — which we might well have gotten in any format.
2017: Sign-stealing Astros lose their crown
Actual World Series: (2) Houston Astros over (1) Los Angeles Dodgers
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Cleveland vs. Dodgers
What’s gained: Who knows what would have become of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, but we can at least say this: After losing an epic pennant race against Cleveland, Houston would not have had the chance to win a tainted championship. Instead, Cleveland would have gotten perhaps its second straight shot at ending its title drought.
The AL race would have largely been a two-team battle between Cleveland and Houston, but it would have been an all-timer. On Labor Day, the unofficial start of the stretch run, Houston led by three games, but Cleveland was in the midst of its 20-game winning streak, ending up going an incredible 33-4 to finish the season.
Still, Houston was also hot, as the Astros went 14-3 to end the season. With both teams losing their second-to-last games, it would have come down to the final day, with Cleveland holding a one-game edge. Cleveland beat Chicago 3-1 to clinch, riding a solid start from Josh Tomlin and 3⅔ scoreless innings from the backbone of that team, its bullpen. Final standings: Cleveland 102-60, Houston 101-61.
The NL was down to a two-team race between the Dodgers and Nationals by Labor Day, but L.A. pulled away from there, cruising to a pennant and into a rematch of the 1920 World Series.
What’s lost: Frankly, not much. The Red Sox and Yankees went to the wire in the AL East, though both made the postseason. Neither would have joined the Cleveland-Houston derby in a classic format. The race for the NL’s second-wild card came down to the finish, with the Rockies edging the Brewers by a game.
The playoffs in 2017 featured a lot of close, tense matchups, so losing those would be tough. The Yankees overcame a 2-0 deficit to beat Cleveland in five, then dropped a classic seven-game series to Houston in the ALCS. The Cubs beat the Nationals in a five-game NLDS series, winning the finale 9-8.
Mostly though, we never would have gotten that Astros-Dodgers World Series. Whether or not you consider that a loss depends on how jaded you feel about it, given the Houston scandal. But at the time, that seven-game classic was one of the better Fall Classics in quite awhile.
2018: An MVP matchup on the biggest stage
Actual World Series: (1) Boston Red Sox over (3) Los Angeles Dodgers
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
What’s gained: Well, first of all you have the Brewers’ first NL pennant, their only other World Series appearance coming when they were still in the AL. With a pennant comes the chance at a championship, so perhaps the Brewers would no longer be one of the five franchises without one.
More certain is that the Brewers would have earned that shot by winning a tremendous NL pennant race in which they overcame their bitter rivals to the south, the Cubs. Chicago and Milwaukee played in a tiebreaker for the NL Central title in 2018, but in the classic format, that would have been a winner-take-all game for a berth in the World Series.
The race would have been about more than those two teams. Going into the last week, six NL clubs would have been alive, with the Cubs leading the pack, 2½ games up on Milwaukee. Chicago didn’t collapse but instead the Brewers caught fire, winning their last seven to get into that tiebreaker which, of course, they won.
The Red Sox ran away with the AL pennant but perhaps the lack of drama on that side would have been outweighed by a World Series matchup that featured the two eventual MVPs in Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich.
What’s lost: To say the Red Sox ran away with the AL in the classic format is true — going into the last week, the Astros — at 6½ games back — were the only other contender still mathematically alive. But the Yankees and Astros joined the Red Sox as 100-game winners in 2018 and neither would have made the playoffs in a one-seed-only scenario. Still, Boston lost just two games in rolling over both teams on the way to the Series.
In the NL, we would have lost a second tiebreaker game, as the Dodgers had to beat the Rockies to determine the NL West champion. We also would have lost the outstanding, seven-game NLCS in which the Dodgers beat Milwaukee.
2019: Now we get our Astros-Dodgers showdown
Actual World Series: (4) Washington Nationals over (1) Houston Astros
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
What’s gained: While the classic format would have prevented the 2017 Astros-Dodgers pairing, we would have gotten it here, and it would have been a clash between teams that combined to win 213 games. Again, we can’t know how this matchup might have been colored by the Houston scandal, which didn’t break until after this World Series. But at least the matchup itself would have been untainted.
The Dodgers and Braves are the only serious NL contenders, and even that race would die out by the last week as L.A. pulled away. The real story would have been on the AL side.
The AL featured three 100-win teams in 2019, the Astros, Yankees and Twins. The pennant race boiled down to those three by Labor Day, when the Yankees and Astros were tied, with Minnesota four games back. By the final week, the Twins were barely alive at six games behind, but the Yankees were just a half-game back of Houston, both teams with 102 wins.
That set up an intense conclusion but, alas, the Yankees faded in the final days, losing four of five at Tampa Bay and Texas. Houston won six of its last seven contests, and 12 of its last 14, to seize the crown — its first during the period covered in our revised history.
What’s lost: The Cardinals finished two games up on Milwaukee to win the AL Central, though the Brewers still got in as a wild card. Neither would have been in the running in a revised format. Milwaukee had to fend off the Mets, Diamondbacks and Cubs for that second wild-card slot.
The eventual champion Nationals, the top NL wild card, would never have sniffed the postseason in the classic format. Whether or not this means the Expos/Nationals franchise was still seeking its first title depends on how our alternate-history 2012 and 2014 World Series came out, as Washington would have represented the NL in both of them.
2020: Dodgers-Rays remains
Actual World Series: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers over (1) Tampa Bay Rays
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Same
Look, we all know there is a lot we’d change about 2020 if we could, in baseball and beyond. Insofar that the 2020 MLB season can be redeemed, it is arguably redeemed because despite a 16-team bracket, the best teams actually ended up in the World Series, and the clear best team that year — the Dodgers — won it. Beyond that, there’s not much to be gleaned about that season.
2021: Do Giants finally win their first title in San Francisco?
Actual World Series: (5) Atlanta Braves over (3) Houston Astros
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants
What’s gained: Here’s a Giants pennant gained via the classic format but, alas, it’s too late for Bochy, as this was Gabe Kapler’s club. The Rays win their second straight AL pennant, giving them another shot at exiting the zero-titles club.
Starting with the AL, the Rays would have had this well in hand by the middle of September. The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox — the other teams that made the real-life AL playoffs in 2021 — all were within hailing distance of the Rays, but it wasn’t that close. Tampa Bay ended up five games better than Houston atop the AL.
In the actual NL that season, the Giants and Dodgers staged a memorable battle to win the NL West, with San Francisco (107) winning by a single game over L.A., making the Dodgers one of the best-ever second-place teams. That still would have been the case in the classic format but the stakes would have been higher — first place, or nothing. The teams’ last head-to-head game that year was Sept. 5, which would have seemed like a tremendous lost opportunity at the time. At 4½ games back on Labor Day, the Brewers had hopes of joining this sprint but soon faded.
This might have been a World Series in pursuit of firsts — the Rays trying to secure the franchise’s first title; the Giants perhaps trying to win their first championship since moving to San Francisco. Don’t forget — their 2010, 2012 and 2014 titles never happened.
However, the Giants also finished with the NL’s best record in 2000, so that would have been another shot at winning it. It also would have been Bonds’ third Fall Classic, after his two alternate-history pennants in Pittsburgh.
What’s lost: Braves history would look a lot different in the classic format. They’d lose this title, which means Freddie Freeman would have just won his first ring — with the Dodgers. However, get this: Atlanta finished with the NL’s best record nine times in 12 years between 1992 and 2003. They actually won four pennants (and one title) during that span, but it could have been so much more.
The only playoff series that went five games was the Dodgers’ NLDS win over the Giants. But if we’d have had that long, head-to-head scramble between them for the NL pennant, we wouldn’t have needed that.
2022: Astros-Dodgers II
Actual World Series: (1) Houston Astros over (6) Philadelphia Phillies
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
What’s gained: A long time to analyze the pending Astros-Dodgers rematch from alternate 2019. The teams won 217 games between them this time, and both enjoyed sizable leads in their respective leagues over the final weeks of the campaign.
What’s lost: The first six-seed in a World Series, for one. The first five-versus-six seed LCS as well — the Phillies and the Padres. The Mets and Braves tied for the NL East title with 101 wins — no tiebreaker games in the new format, a shame — and rather than moving into the bracket, they both would have finished 10 games back of the Dodgers. The down-the-stretch fixation on the race for the NL’s third wild card — Philly beat the Brewers by a single game — would have been lost.
2023: Ronald Acuna Jr. starts 40/70 club, meets O’s in October
Actual World Series: (4) Texas Rangers over (6) Arizona Diamondbacks
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves
What’s gained: A great World Series pairing. The Braves, riding Ronald Acuna Jr.’s historic season, and the title-starved Orioles, with young stars Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, among others. Both teams won over 100 games during the regular season.
Both leagues would have featured two-team races. The Orioles and Rays duke it out into the final week, though Baltimore wraps things up with a couple of days to go. The Braves and Dodgers go toe-to-toe in the NL, but Atlanta is able to keep L.A. at arm’s length down the stretch.
What’s lost: The Rangers’ first title would never have happened, as neither World Series entrant would have sniffed the postseason. The three-team race in the AL West, the one in which Seattle was left without a playoff slot, would have not happened. The seven-game ALCS in which both the Rangers and Astros went perfect on the road would not be a thing. Arizona’s seven-game NLCS win over the Phillies would also be gone, so we’d have lost two winner-take-all pennant clinchers.
2024: The East Coast-West Coast showdown we just saw
Actual World Series: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers over (1) New York Yankees
No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup: Same
What’s gained: Sometimes, even the format can’t get in the way. Although, this is a season in which the alternate-reality regular season is greatly enhanced by the classic format.
The only down-the stretch dramas we had involved teams that won 80-something games. The Royals, Tigers and Mariners comprised one of those races, all for two of the three AL wild-card slots. The Mariners also had a shot at the AL West crown, won by the 88-win Astros. The NL was the same story, with the Diamondbacks left out of an NL wild-card spot in the three-team derby with the Mets and Braves.
In the classic format, there would have been six AL teams within 5½ games of the lead on Labor Day, while the NL would have had five teams within six. It would have made for an awfully fun September. By the last week, we would have been down to two in the AL (Yankees by 2½ over the Guardians) and four in the NL (all within four games).
Entering the final weekend, we would have had the Yankees with a one-game edge over Cleveland, and the Dodgers one game up on the Phillies.
What’s lost: A very good postseason, including the Mets’ run, the Royals and Tigers advancing to the ALDS, the great Dodgers-Padres NLDS — all of it, vanished. And it does feel like a loss, but how much of that is because, as fun as the journey might have been, we still ended up with the matchup so many wanted in the first place?
We also wouldn’t have gotten that epic day-after-the-season, on which the Mets and Braves played their memorable makeup doubleheader, giving Francisco Lindor the platform for his clinching homer that is one of the signature moments of his career.
Sports
Allgaier wins first Xfinity title with dramatic rally
Published
15 hours agoon
November 11, 2024By
admin-
Associated Press
Nov 9, 2024, 11:07 PM ET
AVONDALE, Ariz. — Justin Allgaier won his first NASCAR Xfinity season championship Saturday night at Phoenix Raceway, making a stunning comeback after falling a lap down midway through the race.
Allgaier worked his way back through the field and passed Austin Hill and Cole Custer on an overtime restart with two laps remaining. Allgaier’s No. 7 Chevrolet took four tires during his pit stop before overtime, including two new ones on his right side, before shooting past Hill and Custer on the restart.
After Allgaier made the pass, a crash ensued, bringing out another caution, but the JR Motorsports driver survived the final restart to take home a long-awaited title.
“This is mind-blowing, it really is,” Allgaier said. “We tried to give it away every way we could.”
Allgaier, 38, finished second in the race Riley Herbst, but it didn’t matter because he beat the other three championship finalists: Custer finished eighth, AJ Allmendinger was ninth and Hill 10th.
It’s a big moment for Allgaier, who had won 25 Xfinity races in his career, but had never won a championship despite making the final four seven times over the past nine years. He finished in second in 2020 and 2023.
Allgaier had an eventful night, starting from the back of the field after switching to a backup car because of a crash during Friday’s practice. Regardless, he quickly shot up the leaderboard early in the race and it took him just 26 laps to enter the top 10.
But Allgaier got into trouble midway through the race when his back left tire started losing air following contact with Herbst. Allgaier lost a few positions, but was able to make it to the end of the second stage in 10th place.
His championship hopes looked as if they were dashed on the ensuing restart, when he received back-to-back penalties for an improper restart and then speeding on pit road. That dropped him to a lap behind the field, but he got back onto the lead lap after a well-timed caution when Anthony Alfredo crashed into the wall.
Given new life, Allgaier methodically worked his way back through the field before the crucial pass of Hill and Custer with two laps to go.
Allmendinger also started from the back of the field because he changed brakes after qualifying. He moved up to the middle of the pack fairly quickly, but struggled with his car for much of the night. Custer was in position to win back-to-back Xfinity titles for much of the night, but he couldn’t hang with Allgaier’s speedy car in the final laps.
Herbst also won the first two stages, which were both 45 laps.
Custer and Allmendinger are both moving up to the Cup Series next season.
Sports
Allison, NASCAR Hall of Famer, dies at age 86
Published
15 hours agoon
November 11, 2024By
admin-
Associated Press
Nov 9, 2024, 07:28 PM ET
Bobby Allison, founder of racing’s “Alabama Gang” and a NASCAR Hall of Famer, died Saturday. He was 86.
NASCAR released a statement from Allison’s family that said he died at home in Mooresville, North Carolina. A cause of death wasn’t given, but Allison had been in declining health for years.
Allison moved to fourth on NASCAR’s Cup Series victory list last month when chairman Jim France recognized him as the winner of the Meyers Brothers Memorial at Bowman Gray Stadium in North Carolina in 1971. The sanctioning body updated its record books to reflect the decision, giving Allison 85 wins and moving him out of a tie with Darrell Waltrip.
France and longtime NASCAR executive Mike Helton presented Allison with a plaque commemorating the victory. With it, Allison trails only fellow Hall of Famers Richard Petty (200), David Pearson (105) and Jeff Gordon (93) in Cup wins.
Allison was inducted into NASCAR’s second Hall of Fame class in 2011. He was the 1983 NASCAR champion, finished second in the series title race five times and won the Daytona 500 three times.
“Bobby was the ultimate fan’s driver,” Allison’s family said in a statement. “He thoroughly enjoyed spending time with his fans and would stop to sign autographs and have conversations with them everywhere he went. He was a dedicated family man and friend, and a devout Catholic.”
He helped put NASCAR on the map with more than his driving. His infamous fight with Cale Yarborough in the closing laps of the 1979 Daytona 500 served as one of the sport’s defining moments.
“Cale went to beating on my fist with his nose,” Allison has said repeatedly, often using that phrase to describe the fight. “Cale understands like I do that it really was a benefit to the interest of racing. It proves that we were sincere.”
Born in Miami in 1937, Allison started searching for more racing opportunities outside the Sunshine State. He landed in central Alabama, where he found a number of small, dirt tracks.
He returned to Florida to get brother Donnie and close friend Red Farmer. They set up shop in Hueytown, Alabama, and dominated regional races throughout the 1960s and early 1970s. They were later joined in the Alabama Gang by Jimmy Mears, Neil Bonnett and Bonnett’s and Allison’s sons Davey and Clifford.
Allison retired in 1988 following a crash at Pocono that nearly killed him. He was initially declared dead upon reaching a local hospital but was later resuscitated.
He eventually regained his memory, relearned everyday activities and attempted a comeback. But a series of tragedies led Allison to retire. His son, Clifford, was fatally injured during a crash in practice for the second-tier Busch Series at Michigan International Speedway in 1992. A year later, son Davey was killed in a helicopter crash at Talladega.
Three years after that, Bobby and wife Judy divorced. They reconnected four years later at their daughter-in-law’s wedding and were remarried in 2000. They remained together until Judy’s death in 2015.
Allison was inducted into the Motorsports Hall of Fame in 1992 and into the NASCAR Hall of Fame along with Ned Jarrett, Bud Moore, Pearson and Lee Petty.
“Bobby Allison personified the term ‘racer,'” France said in statement. “Though he is best known as one of the winningest drivers in NASCAR Cup Series history, his impact on the sport extends far beyond the record books.”
Allison is one of 10 drivers to have won NASCAR’s career “grand slam” that includes the Cup Series’ most iconic races: the Daytona 500, the Winston 500, the Coca-Cola 600 and the Southern 500.
Allison made six IndyCar Series starts for Roger Penske, including a pair of Indy 500s.
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