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SPEEDWAY, Ind., and CONCORD, N.C. — Kyle Larson fears no race car, racetrack or racing rival.

He is widely considered to be the most versatile racer of his generation, a modern day A.J. Foyt or Mario Andretti. That’s why the idea of taking on arguably the most daunting challenge that American motorsports has to offer, attempting to complete the planet’s biggest race (the Indianapolis 500) and NASCAR‘s most grueling race (the Coca-Cola 600) on the same day was so attractive. Because Kyle Larson fears nothing and loses to few.

On Sunday, though, Mother Nature kicked Kyle Larson’s ass.

His reaction? To figure out a way to do it all over again.

“Don’t try to question it, because, no offense, you don’t really understand it,” Andretti himself said on Sunday, admittedly jealous of the 31-year-old’s carefully planned and ultimately doomed Double attempt. “Anyone [in Indianapolis] or in Charlotte or over in Monaco this morning, anyone with a racing helmet in their hand today, they get it. It makes sense to them. To us. Racers. It’s why we root for Kyle, because we want to do it as well.”

Even if it fails?

“If it fails, that’s just lessons learned for the next time. And the next. Until you get those trophies,” expounded the man with so many trophies, from IndyCar, Formula One and NASCAR, too.

On Sunday, Larson completed only 200 laps and 500 miles of what was supposed to be a 600-lap/1,100-mile day. He also sprinted through 619 miles of travel, carried over that distance by way of two golf carts, two Chevy Suburbans, two helicopters and a Dassault Falcon 2000LXS. To make all of that happen took more than a year of planning by dozens of people working for two legendary race teams, NASCAR’s Hendrick Motorsports and Arrow McLaren of IndyCar. The meetings were endless. The logistics were exhausting. It was all going to work. Until it didn’t.

“There were so many scenarios that could have played out so many different ways,” Larson said Sunday just before midnight, in the rain-soaked Charlotte Motor Speedway garage, the Coca-Cola 600 having just been called by NASCAR, with Christopher Bell declared the winner with 151 of 400 laps remaining. “But the worst-case scenario happened, and that’s a bummer.”

Larson’s day began 19 hours earlier, awakened in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway infield as the old racetrack was rattled to life by the traditional 6 a.m. cannon shot that signals the opening of the gates. He immediately peeked out of his motorhome and into the sky. The silhouette of the nearby tree line was lined in soft pink and orange, glowing on the eastern horizon over the backstretch. Dawn was breaking with nary a cloud to be seen in any direction. The man who hoped to become only the fifth racer to complete the so-called Double, only the second to successfully run the entire 1,110 miles on the same day and perhaps the first to win one or even both, had only one thought.

“I wished we could have started the race right then.”

Alas, the green flag for the 108th Indianapolis 500 was scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET, almost the exact moment of arrival for a band of vicious thunderstorms that bulldozed the nation all weekend. It rolled through Speedway, Indiana, at precisely the worst time. Unless you like dominoes.

“I don’t know if I can ever remember a time when a room full of racers were rooting for rain before a race started, but we certainly were,” confessed Jeff Gordon, the four-time NASCAR Cup Series champion-turned-Hendrick Motorsports chairman.

Added his boss, team owner Rick Hendrick, who also had his auto sales business on both cars as primary sponsor: “If I don’t have to look at another weather radar map again for a while, that will be fine with me.”

As soon as the extended Indy forecasts began showing the possibility of showers within the green flag window, Gordon, Hendrick, Hendrick Motorsports general manager Jeff Andrews, Arrow McLaren CEO Zak Brown and Larson started a series of daily meetings to discuss weather scenarios. By Sunday, those meetings were happening multiple times per hour. As late as 2 p.m., while Indianapolis Motor Speedway officials were scrambling 250,000 fans in and out of the grandstands due to lightning concerns and also working to dry the racing surface to avoid just the fourth outright race postponement in 108 editions of the Indy 500, Team Larson was in their Gasoline Alley garage stall, hoping for the complete opposite.

The long, thin line of storms was moving quickly and on a northern route. They wanted it to slow down and take more of a turn to the east. Once they knew the rain was inevitable, then the longer the gullywasher, the better.

“Our window was always going to be tight to get to Charlotte for a six o’clock start time,” Larson explained. “So instead of making that stress any worse, we were pulling for a rainout. Let us go to Charlotte and then come back to Indy on Monday. I know the fans wanted to get it in, but they weren’t experiencing the same stress we were.”

Not so fast, ye who makes his living going fast. During that long, wet pause that ended up being a full four hours, a stroll among the tens of thousands seeking shelter beneath the Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s frontstretch grandstand revealed plenty of nail-biting among the plenty of people who were dressed in Larson apparel.

“He is the only reason we are here,” explained Dot Smith, who made the trip from dirt-track hotbed Springfield, Missouri, along with her husband Dan, both dressed in too-wet matching “Larson 1100” T-shirts. “We didn’t watch NASCAR or IndyCar because we like short-track racing, but he’s a short-track racer who is running both, so we are here. We just hope he can run both today.”

By the time Indy’s ritualistic pre-race ceremonies finally started amid the suddenly bright Indiana sunshine, Team Larson knew that making it to Charlotte in time for the start of the 600 was impossible. Larson never hesitated. He was staying. Justin Allgaier would start the NASCAR race in his place, and whenever Larson arrived in North Carolina, he would take back the wheel of his stock car.

“Kyle’s priority is this race first and then whatever he can get in Charlotte,” explained his coach for the month, 2015 Indy 500 champion Tony Kanaan, who was still coaching up his pupil on the finer points of restarts and pit stops as the world waited out the rain Sunday. “I know NASCAR is his day job and he is the points leader there, hoping to win another championship [to go with his 2021 Cup Series title], but his focus is here and now. Tonight, it will be there and then.”

The roar of the crowd for Larson during driver introductions was easily the loudest of the day. And the crowd around his car on the grid was the largest anyone could ever remember seeing, certainly for a rookie.

“Look at that,” Larson’s teammate and 2016 Indy 500 champ Alexander Rossi said, pointing to the mob as he pressed himself against the pit lane wall to stay out of the way. “My rookie year [also 2016] I think I had my crew and no one else standing with me. This is great for IndyCar racing. And he could win today. Trust me.”

Rossi was not wrong. Larson started on the second row, dropped back into the pack early, and indeed made a couple of small mistakes on pit stops and restarts that kept him from dashing back toward the front. But by midrace he was a fixture in the top 10, then the top six, and was threatening to fight for the lead. Until …

“I smoked the right front tire or something on a green flag pit stop,” Larson recalled of a trip down pit road when he had to slow from 230 mph to 60 mph entering the pits with fewer than 70 laps remaining. When the tell-tale smoke blasted off the locked-up tires, the crowd groaned. He was slapped with a pit road speeding penalty by IndyCar officials and after a drive-through penalty was a full lap behind the leaders. On the verge of tears after finishing 18th, Larson said, “If I just could have executed a better race, you never know what could happen. Yeah, just bummed with myself.”

As Josef Newgarden celebrated his thrilling second consecutive Indy 500 victory, Larson was consoled by Kanaan and his IndyCar crew. But not for long. There was a golf cart, SUV, chopper and plane waiting to take him to Charlotte.

“This is the part that we had planned and replanned and planned again,” Brown explained Sunday. “But I think maybe this is the part that people didn’t think about that we certainly had been thinking about for a while. Weather didn’t just affect what we were doing at the track, but everything in between the tracks. It was never just about rain delays. It was about airport closures and helicopters grounded and even Donald Trump being at Charlotte. What does that mean for security and transportation?”

Only 17 minutes after the checkered flag fell, Larson, his brow still crossed over an Indy 500 opportunity he felt that he had blown, was out of the helicopter and walking to the Hendrick Motorsports jet, its engines already running. Five minutes later, he was airborne, changed into a fresh K1 firesuit and with an IV bag of fluids in his arm.

The good news? Flying at 540 mph, he would be landing at Concord Regional Airport, only four miles from Charlotte Motor Speedway, in less than an hour. The better news? Allgaier was smoking his way around the track, running 13th and keeping up with the leaders so well that rival Brad Keselowski asked over the radio, “Is Larson already here?”

But the bad news? His plane was also streaking its way over and through the same storm front that had ruined the midday schedule at Indy. He landed at 9:20 p.m. ET. His second chopper ride, less than five minutes long, was with the double backdrop of Charlotte Motor Speedway’s lights and also flashes of lightning bearing down on the racetrack.

Larson’s last golf cart ride of this longest day rocketed through a cheering infield crowd and carried him to the Hendrick Motorsports pit stall, where he climbed atop the box to sit with crew chief Cliff Daniels and waited for the first opportunity to swap out with Allgaier and finally get back into the cockpit of his No. 5 Chevy.

“We know that Justin gets the driver points for this race since he started it and we knew that when Kyle was going to miss the start of this race, that we would have to file a waiver with NASCAR,” Hendrick explained as he waited on Larson to arrive at the Indianapolis airport.

He was speaking of NASCAR’s rule that a driver must start every race in order to be eligible for the 10-race series championship postseason field, for which an exception can be made by filing for a waiver if they have a good reason for why they missed the race. Such as an injury, a family emergency, or perhaps attempting to run the Indy 500 and do the Memorial Day Double and provide NASCAR with an immeasurable amount of publicity in the process.

“If Justin can keep the car near the front and Kyle can get it into Victory Lane, then they both get to celebrate,” Hendrick said. “There’s only one trophy, but I’ll figure that out. That’s a good problem to have.”

The problem with that problem is that it was never a problem in the first place. Because the very moment that Larson climbed atop that pit box in Charlotte, the night skies opened up and rain fell like no one had seen since … well, 11 hours earlier at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Another two hours of waiting and the race was called. Bell was the winner. Allgaier was credited with a 13th-place finish.

Larson never ran a lap at Charlotte.

“I am very, very thankful for the experience that was so great until today, when everything that could have gone wrong did,” Larson said before vanishing into the damp night, lightning still sparking the clouds overhead as Sunday turned into Monday. “Maybe we get to do it again. I hope so. I want to. There’s no way it goes like this again, right?”

There’s only way to find out. And no matter how many races Kyle Larson wins between now and then, the excruciating pain of the missed opportunities of May 26, 2024, will take up a much larger portion of his brain than those victories will. As Richard Petty has always said, “I won 200 races, but I can tell you a lot more about the 900 I lost.”

“Yeah, I’m not ready to have that conversation yet,” Hendrick said with a tired laugh, sitting in the terminal of the Hendrick Motorsports hangar, slumped into a chair as he debriefed with his management team. “But Kyle will be ready, sooner than later. That’s how racers are built. That’s what makes them great. And even when they drive me crazy and wear me out, I love them for that.”

Or, as Dan Smith put it, four states and a whole day earlier, in the Indianapolis rain: “There’s a reason they make T-shirts with these guys’ faces on them and not of the rest of us. Their brains work different, don’t they?”

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The Polar Bear in Boston? A return to Queens? Potential free agent fits for Pete Alonso

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The Polar Bear in Boston? A return to Queens? Potential free agent fits for Pete Alonso

NEW YORK — A year after discovering teams across Major League Baseball did not deem him worthy of a lengthy contract, Pete Alonso is back on the free agent market searching for long-term love again.

In February, after an extended standoff, Alonso settled for a two-year, $54 million deal to return to the New York Mets with an opt-out after the 2025 season. He was paid $30 million for this year and posted numbers good enough to make opting out the clear choice. And Alonso didn’t waste time, announcing that was his plan minutes after the Mets lost their final regular-season game against the Miami Marlins to fall short of the playoffs.

His chances of finding a long-term partner are higher this time around for a few reasons. The first one is clear: He’s coming off a significantly stronger campaign. Alonso had his worst season in 2024, slashing .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs. That, in a vacuum, was good production. But it was his fourth straight season with declining numbers — an alarming pattern considering Alonso was about to turn 30 and didn’t add value on defense or the basepaths.

The metrics suggested Alonso was still one of the worst defensive first basemen in baseball in 2025 — his minus-9 defensive runs saved and minus-9 outs above average both ranked 18th out of 18 qualified first basemen — but he rebounded in the batter’s box. With an adjusted swing and approach, Alonso hit the ball harder — his 93.5 mph average exit velocity was a career high — and the production followed.

He slashed .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs mostly hitting behind Juan Soto. His 141 wRC+ was tied for the second-largest output of his career. He set the franchise record for career home runs, further solidifying his place as one of the most beloved Mets in recent history.

Also of note: Alonso played in all 162 games for the second consecutive season and has appeared in 1,008 of the Mets’ 1,032 regular-season games since debuting in 2019. He has started 993 of those games at first base, 60 at DH.

Over that span, his 264 career home runs rank third in baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, a fellow free agent. Alonso is durable and consistent.

Then there’s the market. Alonso and Schwarber are the two premier power bats available in free agency this offseason. At first base, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s decision to sign a 14-year, $500 million extension with Toronto in April removed Alonso’s stiffest positional competition. Josh Naylor is a tier below — and a different player with less power but better defensively and on the bases — and Seattle wasn’t going to spend the necessary money for Alonso, but the Mariners retaining their first baseman nevertheless removes an option at the position for other clubs.

Add it up and Alonso should find a deal in the range of four to five years. The question is where. Here are a few possible landing spots for the five-time All-Star, starting with his three most aggressive suitors so far, including the only team he has ever known.


Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week that he would “love” to bring back Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz, another All-Star free agent. Alonso’s stated willingness to serve as a designated hitter, at least in a part-time capacity, doesn’t hurt as the Mets prioritize improving a defense that regressed in 2025.

“He’s clearly a really good offensive player,” Stearns said at the GM meetings in Las Vegas. “And I think for any team the ability to get his bat in the lineup in multiple ways is helpful. And it’s great to know that Pete is open to stuff like that.”

But the Mets’ top offseason priority is pitching — in the rotation and the bullpen — and they have internal options for first base and DH in the short and long term. Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil could play first base. Juan Soto, after a poor defensive year in right field, will eventually see time at DH. Further, Stearns’ unwillingness to give Alonso what he wanted last winter indicates he prefers not to make that level of investment in him.

The Mets haven’t had someone other than Alonso start at first base on Opening Day since Adrián González began a 54-game cameo to conclude his career in 2018. A year later, Alonso debuted and went on to club 54 home runs en route to being named National League Rookie of the Year. He became a fan favorite in Queens over his seven seasons. But he could find himself in another uniform in 2026.


First base production in 2025: .244/.305/.386, 16 HR, 86 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Abraham Toro (57 starts), Romy Gonzalez (41), Triston Casas (27), Nathaniel Lowe (26)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .272/.361/.465, 26 HR, 125 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Rafael Devers (73), Masataka Yoshida (44), Rob Refsnyder (18), Roman Anthony (17)

Most of Boston’s DH production last season came from Devers before he was traded in June. First base was a major problem beginning with Casas’ slow start and exacerbated when he was lost for the season with a knee injury in early May. The logical choice to replace him — Devers — refused the assignment, which led to Boston shipping him to San Francisco.

Toro, Gonzalez and Lowe, who was signed in August, handled the duty for the remainder of the season. Toro was designated for assignment in August. Lowe met the same fate Tuesday.

The Red Sox president of baseball operations, Craig Breslow, has made it clear: He wants to acquire an accomplished middle-of-the-order bat, preferably a right-handed one. Trading Devers, combined with Alex Bregman‘s free agency, has left the Red Sox without much proven slug in their lineup. A reunion with Bregman would check that box. As would signing Alonso, who could split time at first base and DH with Casas if Boston were to keep him.

Do the Red Sox have the appetite for both free agents? Trading Devers moved $29.1 million off the competitive balance tax payroll for each of the next eight years. The Red Sox had approximately $98 million of their relatively modest $201 million CBT payroll come off the books after the season. Their 2026 payroll is projected to include more than $50 million in raises, but Boston is a big-market club with plenty of money to fill its needs.


First base production in 2025: .252/.318/.445, 29 HR, 107 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Spencer Steer (113 starts), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (25)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .240/.313/.407, 21 HR, 96 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Gavin Lux (57 starts), Austin Hays (38), Miguel Andujar (20), Tyler Stephenson (17), Steer (16)

The Reds finished 14th in the majors in runs scored, but their collective 92 wRC+, a metric that adjusts for park factors and league context, ranked 24th. The Reds know there’s room for improvement playing half of their games at Great American Ball Park, a hitter’s haven, so they’re seeking to strengthen their offense.

First base and DH aren’t obvious needs. Spencer Steer clubbed 21 home runs in 146 games. Sal Stewart, who turns 22 next month, will be a bigger part of the calculus after posting a 121 OPS+ in his first 18 career games. But Alonso resides on another level. As does Schwarber, a Cincinnati-area native.

Now, the money part. Signing either slugger would require the largest free agent contract in franchise history; the current high mark is the two four-year, $64 million deals given to Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in 2020. The Reds are estimated to carry a $120 million CBT payroll for next season after finishing with a $143 million payroll in 2025, their highest since 2021. That projection includes expected raises. If investing in a premier free agent is too rich — or if they all simply decide to play elsewhere — the Reds could land a cheaper alternative in the trade market by dealing from their starting rotation depth.


First base production in 2025: .262/.351/.479, 32 HR, 128 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Bryce Harper (130 starts)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .238/.362/.566, 57 HR, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Kyle Schwarber (154 starts)

With Bryce Harper at first base, Alonso probably would only make sense for the Phillies if they do not re-sign Schwarber — the best designated hitter in the majors this side of Shohei Ohtani. But Phillies owner John Middleton isn’t afraid to spend money, and the team could make both Alonso and Schwarber work by moving Harper back to the outfield. Offensively, Alonso’s right-handed bat makes sense, since the Phillies are expected to move on from Nick Castellanos, catcher J.T. Realmuto is a free agent, and Alec Bohm is a candidate for a trade.


First base production in 2025: .246/.323/.411, 18 HR, 103 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Spencer Horwitz (93 starts), Enmanuel Valdez (22)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .238/.328/.390, 19 HR, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Andrew McCutchen (120 starts), Bryan Reynolds (34)

This is a long shot, but the Pirates want to spend money on upgrading their offense to complement a strong pitching staff headlined by Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes. Like the A’s last winter in their quest to upgrade their starting rotation, that could require overpaying for an impact bat. The price of doing business.


First base production in 2025: .243/.310/.369, 14 HR, 92 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Coby Mayo (67 starts), Ryan Mountcastle (50), Ryan O’Hearn (39)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .221/.296/.380, 22 HR, 90 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Mountcastle (33 starts), O’Hearn (31), Adley Rutschman (18), Jordan Westburg (16), Tyler O’Neill (13)

At the GM meetings, Orioles general manager Mike Elias said he wanted to add a power hitter, preferably an outfielder, this offseason. Acquiring Taylor Ward for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Tuesday checked that box. But they could always add more slug and Alonso would give them plenty.


Designated hitter production in 2025: .282/.354/.484, 34 HR, 133 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: George Springer (80 starts), Anthony Santander (30), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24)

This fit isn’t clean, but the Blue Jays could lose the right-handed-hitting Bo Bichette in free agency this winter and Alonso could serve as a replacement. The Blue Jays expressed interest in Alonso last winter, but that was when Guerrero’s future was very uncertain. We’re not even going to bother listing first base as a possibility for Alonso in Toronto because that’s Guerrero’s job for a very long time. Springer enjoyed a resurgent season primarily as Toronto’s DH, so he would have to move back to the outfield to make room for Alonso.

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$400 million extension, blockbuster trade or let it ride? MLB insiders break down Tigers’ Tarik Skubal options

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0 million extension, blockbuster trade or let it ride? MLB insiders break down Tigers' Tarik Skubal options

After three seasons with a face-of-the-franchise-type superstar to headline the winter, there is no Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto in the 2025-26 free agent class. But there is still one player whose potential availability could rock the offseason ahead: Tarik Skubal.

Why would the Detroit Tigers possibly move their ace on the heels of his second straight American League Cy Young Award and the team’s second consecutive postseason appearance?

Quite simply, because keeping Skubal in Detroit is going to become very expensive, very soon. The 28-year-old left-hander will enter the final year of his contract in 2026 before he is scheduled to reach free agency after the season. If he does hit the market next winter, Skubal has a chance of surpassing Los Angeles Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record $325 million contract, and he could even become baseball’s first $400 million pitcher.

With Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris facing a decision that will shape the future of the franchise — and impact all of MLB — we talked with 11 industry insiders about what Detroit should do this offseason, broken into three main options.


1. Trade Skubal this winter

This was the least-popular option among our panel and one rival executive explained why.

“The whole reason you do all this is to start a season with a potential contender that has an ace. You can’t throw that away before the season starts. How long will it take to get here again?”

Some panelists hemmed and hawed about how much a team would have to overpay to get Detroit to consider a trade, believing an offer that included a young starting pitcher with front-line potential would be enough to start internal conversations — but nobody could get themselves logically to advocate for a deal unless something completely illogical was offered. And that type of deal increasingly doesn’t happen in modern baseball.

If the Tigers were to trade Skubal for anything less than a gobsmacking return, it would likely mean their competitive window would be tighter — and it would be hard to call Detroit a contender without Skubal next season. Dealing away a player of his caliber would label the Tigers a small-market team, at least by mindset, and bring into question whether they would find themselves in this situation again as other star players approach free agency. It’s much easier to push some, but not all, of their chips to the middle for the upcoming season and see what they can do with Skubal leading the way. Who knows when the next opportunity will come?

When I asked these sources what the Tigers should do, they seemed unsure about how Detroit was viewing the situation but leaned toward believing the Tigers would keep Skubal going into next season. That said, knowing what the market will bear is what Harris likes to do, so the drumbeat of Skubal being available in the right deal — or at least in the sense that Detroit would listen before hanging up — will likely continue.


2. Keep Skubal, but trade him at the deadline if the season doesn’t go as planned

In the event things go sideways during the first half of the 2026 season, everyone on our panel agreed that this was the right move. Defining what “going sideways” means with the expanded playoffs is hard, but battling for a wild-card spot around the trade deadline was where the gray area began for our panelists.

“You cannot, under any circumstances, hold Skubal through the trade deadline and miss the playoffs. That would be a catastrophe,” said one agent.

The haul would still be formidable for a rental deal — back-of-the-envelope math says two prospects ranking later in the top 100 or one elite young player, roughly speaking — but also because the offers would have to clear the bar of Detroit receiving a compensation pick just after the first round to even be considered, as that’s what the Tigers would get if Skubal walked in free agency (under the current free agency system).

Another rival executive has an informed theory on Harris’ focus: “He has his eyes set on 2027 and 2028 as his prime contending years.” If things go well in 2026, the window would expand to include it as well. Top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark, the No. 2 and No. 6 prospects in the sport, could be core players as soon as the second half of 2026, so aiming for things to really take off in 2027 is logical.

Opinions vary on whether Skubal would fetch more this winter or at the deadline because it’s hard to project how desperate a contender could hypothetically be at the deadline versus what that team would offer to get an entire season of Skubal plus a first-round pick when he walks. It’s safe to assume the return would likely be a bit less at the deadline.


3. Keep Skubal no matter what, try to extend him and take the draft pick if he ends up leaving

This would be a bold move in the era of the asset value-focused approach that so many teams are taking now. If Skubal were to walk in free agency, the compensation would likely be a draft pick in the 30s the following summer — and that’s it. That type of pick is valued at roughly $8-10 million of surplus value, depending on your source.

There is more value that would come before that for Detroit, but it’s hard to quantify. The Tigers would get another title run with the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner and more time to convince him to stay in Detroit. Maybe that combination could make magic and both sides could land on a deal before he hits free agency. Skubal has said he wants to stay in Detroit, so you can’t rule it out. Another rival executive thinks Harris is focused on how to make this happen. “[Harris] will never believe he can’t sign Skubal.”

That being said, Skubal being represented by Scott Boras makes it unlikely he will sign a deal without at least testing the market, as Boras typically advises clients to hit free agency.

There’s one more variable, though, that is unique to the timing of Skubal’s free agency: the expected labor strife next winter, with the current CBA expiring on Dec. 1, 2026. It’s unlikely Boras wants Skubal to be on the market through a labor stoppage that would leave him potentially signing right before spring training after some teams have spent their available cash and with the economic model of the game potentially changing in a way that hurts Skubal’s market. One source said the CBA complication moves the odds that Skubal signs an extension before free agency from 0% to 10%.

The last time there was a labor stoppage hanging over free agency, we saw a frenzy of late-November deals before the Dec. 1 lockout. A similar quicker free agent process that ends with Skubal signing around Thanksgiving would give Detroit a slight leg up, given the familiarity and exclusive negotiating window before free agency, relative to a protracted, winter-long bidding war.

The contract marks to beat are Yamamoto’s $325 million guarantee that is the most ever for pitchers and Max Fried’s $218 million guarantee that is tops among left-handers all-time. Both of those contracts were landed by agencies other than Boras Corp., and setting precedents is a large part of how top agencies market themselves to potential nine-figure clients.

It’s also worth noting Skubal had Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022, which are factors to consider when projecting a long-term deal in free agency.

Are Harris and the Tigers likely to win a straight bidding war with a precedent-setting guarantee? No, but if they can offer a shorter deal at an AAV record with opt-outs, they would at least have a path, albeit a narrow one, to keeping their ace.

The real issue for Detroit is their payroll. They finished last season with a $155 million competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll figure, over $90 million below the first CBT tax threshold. If Skubal will be getting an AAV in the $30 millions or even the low $40 millions, can the Tigers really justify giving a quarter of their payroll to one player? Would Harris do that, or would signing Skubal be part of a larger move to a payroll number that can justify fitting Skubal in there as the Tigers see their peak competitive window opening? If McGonigle and Clark show up late in 2026 and look like future stars, that won’t bump the payroll, but it could make the Tigers look more competitive going forward and that could help their long-term case to Skubal, as well.

This logic — if things go well in 2026, the Tigers will contend and hold onto Skubal through the season — is also why another executive mused on Detroit’s options if it traded Skubal at the deadline. “You could still trade [Skubal] and then sign him back long-term, but I can’t imagine the series of events where that would actually happen.”

There’s also the reading of the tea leaves for this winter. Some sources mentioned Detroit is targeting pitching depth early in free agency. Is that to backfill for a potential Skubal trade? A deal now or at the deadline? Or just to create depth for a title run like all contending teams need? Or to create leverage/depth so they have maximum optionality for all of 2026? You can see what you want to see when it comes to the Rorschach test that is the team-building conundrum of the winter.

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Records: WMU police called twice to aid Kneeland

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Records: WMU police called twice to aid Kneeland

Western Michigan University police were twice called to perform welfare checks on Marshawn Kneeland while he played for the school, including by coaches who worried about him possessing a gun, according to records obtained by ESPN.

Kneeland, a defensive end for the Dallas Cowboys, died Nov. 6 of an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound in Frisco, Texas. He was 24. The documents obtained by ESPN via an open-records request show that there were concerns about his mental health as early as 2020.

One incident, in June 2023, came 10 months before Dallas picked him in the second round of the NFL draft. Western Michigan coach Lance Taylor and then-defensive coordinator Lou Esposito called police with a “concern that [Kneeland] recently separated from his girlfriend” and that they “wanted to make sure he was mentally fit to possess a firearm,” according to a campus police report.

“After speaking with Kneeland, he voluntarily turned the firearm into WMUPD for safekeeping until cleared by a counselor,” the officer wrote.

Twelve days later, Kneeland retrieved his gun from police after obtaining a letter from a social worker at the Western Michigan Sindecuse Health Center stating that Kneeland was examined and determined not to be a threat to himself or others, according to the report.

Taylor and Esposito did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment Friday. “WMU’s football program and our greater community are heartbroken by the loss of Marshawn,” according to a statement from the Western Michigan athletic department provided to ESPN. “He was deeply loved and cared for here. Bronco Athletics provides holistic support for all our student-athletes including mental health services with professional counselors. Marshawn made use of those mental health resources during his time at WMU. The entire football staff was proud of Marshawn, who grew to become a captain and a leader in the program, and ultimately a graduate of Western Michigan University.” The counselor named in the report did not respond to messages from ESPN.

In another incident in September 2020, an unnamed friend of Kneeland’s called 911 to express concern for his well-being, and police found Kneeland near train tracks in Kalamazoo.

“Kneeland told me he was sitting across the tracks in hopes a train would run him over to end his life,” the responding officer wrote in a report. “Kneeland told me life overall and the lack of playing football at WMU had him feeling down. He told me he had been feeling like this for a while. When asked to clarify how long he felt that way, he did not answer. Kneeland said he does not see a therapist or take any medication for his mental health crisis.”

The report states that Kneeland did not want to seek medical help but that Kent County sheriff’s deputies who responded to the scene sent Kneeland to Borgess Hospital (now Beacon Kalamazoo). The report does not state when or why Kneeland was released from the hospital.

A Cowboys spokesperson declined to answer questions Friday about whether the team had been aware of Kneeland’s previous incidents.

Kneeland’s cousin Nicole Kneeland-Woods, a family spokesperson, told ESPN that she had no knowledge of those incidents. “None at all,” she said.

On Thursday, Kneeland’s family held a private memorial service in Wyoming, Michigan. Kneeland-Woods said it was invitation-only, with family, close friends and some of his coaches.

“Right now for us, it’s just trying to move forward,” she said. “Now we can really start the healing process.”

Texas police found Kneeland’s body in the early morning of Nov. 6 after he had evaded officers during a traffic pursuit, crashed his car and fled on foot. According to a report released Friday by the Texas Department of Public Safety, a trooper saw Kneeland’s car speeding down the highway, sometimes traveling more than 145 miles per hour and making “several unsafe lane changes.” The trooper ultimately lost sight of Kneeland’s car. While officers searched for Kneeland, they said they received information that he had expressed “suicidal ideations.”

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