
College football FPI release: Top teams, new playoff trends
More Videos
Published
1 year agoon
By
admin-
Neil PaineJun 3, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
The 2024 college football season will be all about big changes.
Familiar programs are going to be in very different places. The Big Ten, for example, is welcoming Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA, ending the Pac-12 as we knew it; it’s one of several realignments taking place this season. In addition, the sport will have to continue evolving the way players are compensated. And perhaps the most significant new wrinkle of them all comes on the game’s highest-profile stage: The College Football Playoff expands its field from four to 12 teams this season, giving more schools a chance to win their way to the national title.
To help make sense of everything, ESPN is releasing our 2024 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, which include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title, and of course, its probability to make the playoff and win the championship.
From the table below, many of the usual suspects are among the favorite programs to take home the national title, but there is also plenty of uncertainty:
Before we dive into more of the forecast, let’s briefly talk about how all of this works. First things first: The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game. (So that means Georgia is rated as nearly 27 points per game better than the average team, which is pretty good!)
Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams. Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the playoff and achieves other milestones.
Let’s break down some of the main storylines emerging out of the FPI’s numbers ahead of the 2024 season.
1:24
Sarkisian: Texas excited to restore rivalries with A&M, Arkansas in SEC
Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian talks about the Longhorns’ move to the SEC and renewing conference rivalries with Texas A&M and Arkansas.
Two-conference domination
Georgia leads ESPN’s initial playoff predictions, making the expanded field in nearly 80% of our simulations and winning the national title a little over 20% of the time. In addition, the SEC (with a 53% chance of producing the champion) and Big Ten (32%) dominate the national title probability rankings by conference.
Among teams with at least a coin-flip’s chance of making the playoff, the Bulldogs are joined by Oregon (76%), Texas (68%), Ohio State (67%), Notre Dame (60%), Penn State (59%) and Alabama (57%). After that group, there’s a sizable drop-off to the next tier, led by Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee at 37% apiece.
How has the expanded playoff changed the shape of these odds? Overall, 18 teams currently have at least a 20% shot at making the playoff in our preseason model, as opposed to just eight going into last season.
Closer look at the all-important bye
While making the playoff might be a certainty for more top programs this season, merely qualifying isn’t enough anymore. It remains significant to finish among the four highest-ranked conference champs on the committee’s list, and thus earn the all-important bye into the second round of the bracket. Those teams will still need to win three games to capture the title (rather than two under the previous CFP format), but it’s still better than having to win four.
Here are the teams with the best odds of securing that first-round bye:
Interestingly, Oregon ranks highest in the country here — ahead of Georgia. That’s a result of several factors: the Ducks’ comparatively high chance of going undefeated (16%) against their new Big Ten schedule, and the fact that they have the best odds of winning their conference among power-conference schools (37%). Both are good ingredients to end up in the top four.
On a related note: Sorry, Notre Dame, but your team is not allowed to get a bye; only conference champions are eligible. But with 60% odds, the Irish are far and away the most probable playoff team outside the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. We will also get to see at least one non-power-conference team make the playoff this year, as a fifth conference champ is guaranteed a spot in the field.
Here are the odds for each Group of 5 conference to send at least one team to the playoff:
Florida and Washington moving in opposite directions?
Despite the importance of the new format, however, the 2024 season will still be determined by the elite players and programs. In terms of pure talent, Georgia is projected to easily rank No. 1 in the FPI — sitting roughly 2.3 points per game better than No. 2 Oregon — on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 projected offense and No. 3 defense. Five teams are projected to be at least three touchdowns better than the average FBS team: Georgia (plus-26.8), Oregon (24.5), Texas (22.9), Ohio State (22.2) and Alabama (21.9).
Some schools have risen up the ranks since the end of last season. Florida is up from 41st to 20th on the strength of 15 returning starters and a strong showing in the transfer portal. Auburn and Kansas have also leapt into the top 20 after finishing further down the list last season. Tennessee’s ranking more closely resembles that of its 2022 breakout campaign than 2023, when they came back to Earth, while Texas is projected for its highest FPI finish (No. 3) since it made the BCS championship game in 2009. Meanwhile, USC is projected to hold steady at 18th despite losing quarterback Caleb Williams, this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick by the Chicago Bears.
In addition, the FPI projections are down on both of 2023’s championship game contestants. Washington has slipped to 31st, and defending champ Michigan is down to 12th, after each school lost its head coach — Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama and Jim Harbaugh went to the Los Angeles Chargers, respectively — as well as its starting QB and most of its starters. How much both programs can reload will be a big storyline to watch this season. And one other notable dip belongs to Kansas State, which falls from 11th to 22nd.
Here’s this year’s projected FPI top 20:
Can’t forget about Deion’s Buffaloes
Where do Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes land in our ratings? They’re 36th, with a 16th-place ranking on offense with Shedeur Sanders returning at quarterback (along with a bunch of new transfers, as we’ve come to expect from this program).
Along with a season forecast of 6.3 wins, that might not be to Sanders’ liking — but by rising from 77th in the FPI in 2023, the Buffaloes are projected to be the second-most-improved team in the FBS, trailing only Stanford (who’s up from 106th to 59th).
Colorado should benefit from a slightly easier schedule in 2024 — the Buffaloes rank 45th in projected FPI schedule strength, versus 39th a year ago — and its scoring differential indicated a team slightly better than its record last season, both signs that point to continued improvement in Boulder.
But if the Buffaloes are going to really make the most of their potential, they’ll have to win on Sept. 28 at UCF, on Oct. 18 at Arizona and, most importantly, at Kansas on Nov. 23. According to the FPI, those are the three games that swing Colorado’s odds of making the playoff most. Lose any of them, and Colorado has very little chance to make the bracket as an at-large or (more likely) a conference winner out of the Big 12.
Mark ’em down: Biggest games of 2024
Along those same lines, let’s look at the best and most important games of the season, according to the FPI. There are a few ways to quantify this, starting with simply looking at the combined ratings of both schools in a particular contest. By that measure, these are the 20 biggest games on the 2024 schedule:
But there’s also another way of looking at the top games, based on how much they affect the postseason picture. Our simulations have a cool feature called “leverage,” which measures the average change in probability (whether that be national title odds, playoff odds, conference title odds, etc.) for both teams depending on whether they win or lose a given game.
Here are the 2024 games that have the highest leverage in terms of who makes the CFP:
Both rankings are mostly filled with games from the SEC and Big Ten, with a few Notre Dame games, some nonconference tilts and a Week 6 Clemson-FSU matchup in the ACC.
One consequence of the expanded bracket is that fewer games feature huge leverage ratings for both teams’ chances of making the playoff, since more of the top teams have better playoff odds than ever before. But at the same time, realignment has given fans more in-conference battles on these lists, which matter a great deal toward a team’s odds of winning the conference, and thereby potentially securing one of the top four seeds.
That means any fears that playoff expansion would dilute the importance of the regular season might be overblown. There is still plenty to play for across the country each week, and our FPI rankings and projections will help you stay on top of it all.
You may like
Sports
&214;cal’s NHL rink report: Matthew Schaefer’s hot start, Tusky’s debut, games of the week
Published
2 hours agoon
October 20, 2025By
admin
Matthew Schaefer has had quite the debut in the NHL, hasn’t he? He’s scored a point in every game he’s played — including a fun first NHL goal. ESPN analyst John Tortorella noted that he reminds him of Hall of Famer Chris Pronger with his skating … that’s not bad at all for the New York Islanders‘ first overall pick from the 2025 draft.
The debut has also been historical. Schaefer started his NHL career with a five-game point streak (and counting). That’s the second longest point streak by any defenseman from the start of their career, behind only Marek Zidlicky (six games) in 2003-04. He is the first 18-year-old defenseman in NHL history to achieve that (every other 18-year-old on the list was a forward).
His first NHL goal was electric. There was a big scrum in front on an Islanders power play, amid the chaos the puck is lost, and Schaefer barges in from the blue line and pokes the puck that was barely visible under Logan Thompson‘s pads into the net in a seamless motion. Among his many other traits, the hockey IQ is quite high.
Schaefer turned 18 on Sept. 5; yes, just over a month ago. He is the youngest defenseman to make his NHL debut, to record a point in his NHL debut, the youngest NHL player on record to score his first goal on the power play, and the youngest player to play 25-plus minutes in a game.
He’s also garnering a lot of early “Isles franchise player of the future” nods from the Islanders faithful. It might be a bit early to be doling out accolades like that. But Matthew Schaefer is definitely fun to watch, and the best is yet to come.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I liked this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Biggest games of the week
7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Obviously the biggest game of the week from a storyline perspective is Brad Marchand returning for his first game in Boston. He was injured the last time the Panthers visited Boston, so all of the pomp and circumstance will come during this game.
Marchand is a banner- and statue-level guy in Beantown, without question. I expect an extended ovation, then the fans booing him when he levels David Pastrnak in a scrum.
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Two playoff teams from last season. Star power aplenty, with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt on one side, against Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares on the other.
But there’s another wrinkle to this one. Greg Wyshynski and I created a brand new “North American Hockey Championship” title belt for our digital show “The Drop,” and it’s currently held by me thanks to the Canadian victory in last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off. This is how title defenses work: for every Canada vs. USA international game, men’s or women’s, the title is automatically on the line. In addition, the challenger can choose any NHL game with any sort of Canada vs. USA connection for the belt to be up for grabs.
In this case it’s easy — an American team visiting a Canadian one — and it’s the team for which Wysh grew up rooting against the one for which I grew up rooting. If the Devils win, then the U.S. is the new North American hockey champion. If the Leafs win, Canada retains.
Other key matchups this week
10 p.m. ET | ESPN+
10 p.m. ET | ESPN
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
6 p.m. ET | ESPN+
What I liked this weekend
Friday was a big day for college hockey. On paper, Boston University vs. Michigan State was already a heavyweight matchup — 34 NHL prospects with 20 NHL teams were represented in the game. The game was broadcast on ESPN2, which is terrific for a matchup so early in the college hockey season. This is the dawn of a new era of NCAA on the ice, with the rules surrounding CHL players changing, and the continued growth and interest in the college game.
The Spartans led 2-0 through two periods, but BU fought back and the game went to overtime tied 3-3. BU’s Cole Eiserman (Islanders prospect) appeared to win it, but MSU’s Shane Vansaghi (Flyers) swept the puck away before it crossed the goal line. The Spartans brought it back the other way, and Matt Basgall (undrafted) scored off a feed from Ryker Lee (Predators).
Also, count me in as a fan of the NHL’s newest mascot, Tusky. I like Tusky’s overall look, and particularly his dark blue mohawk. I thought the introduction of breaking through blocks of foam ice was cute, and the name is easy for kids to say. I’m a massive fan of mascots — they are critical to game presentation and in-arena fun, to social content, and especially to helping kids and new hockey fans make core memories. I look forward to seeing what fun things the Mammoth have planned for Tusky.
Tusky is here, and he’s perfect! @TuskyNHL pic.twitter.com/APOr2NnYGG
— Utah Mammoth (@utahmammoth) October 16, 2025
MVP candidates if the season ended today…
Vegas center Jack Eichel leads the league with 15 points. He had some support for the Hart among our ESPN hockey crew this preseason, and could remain a top candidate all season (particularly if the scoring keeps up).
0:49
Jack Eichel nets goal for Golden Knights
Jack Eichel lights the lamp for Golden Knights
Speaking of lighting up the scoreboard, Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto has seven goals through six games, with all seven of them at even strength. The Senators will need to find other sources of scoring while Brady Tkachuk is out.
Given that goaltender Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart last season, we can’t forget the netminders this season either. You’d have to take a long look at New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin. Despite going 2-2-1, he boasts a .962 save percentage and is allowing only one goal per game on average. Scott Wedgewood might win out among goalies, however, as he’s started the season 5-0-1 with a .938 save percentage, saving 136 of 145 shots for the first-place Colorado Avalanche.
And hey, if the season ended today, I’d even toss Matthew Schaefer‘s name in the mix based on all the ridiculous stats I highlighted earlier.
Hockey social media post of the week
One of my favorite people on social media is “Kickball Dad” — especially when the Miami Dolphins do something to annoy him, or he’s zipping around the backyard on his mower. He might also be the first person in recorded history to shoot hockey pucks on the beach in the Bahamas.
He’s also a massive Devils fan, and made a video going to the home opener:
Sports
Seven questions that will decide Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS Game 7
Published
2 hours agoon
October 20, 2025By
admin
-
Multiple Contributors
Oct 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
It all comes down to Game 7 in the American League Championship Series — with a trip to the World Series on the line.
The Toronto Blue Jays cruised to victory over the Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and force Monday’s win-or-go-home ALCS finale, with the winner set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic.
Will Toronto finish off the comeback, or will Seattle punch its ticket to its first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide Game 7 — plus a bonus one looking forward to how the AL pennant winner could match up against the reigning champions.
1. How much will home-field advantage matter for Toronto in Game 7?
Jorge Castillo: It doesn’t hurt. The crowds at Rogers Centre down the stretch of the regular season and into October have been electric. Players have repeatedly complimented the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. Those crowds were raucous and it didn’t matter.
Buster Olney: It could mean nothing; the Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I do think that getting a lead will be important, because if Seattle falls behind by two or three runs, the challenge of winning one final game at Rogers Centre will be made more difficult by the bonkers crowd.
2. The Mariners have had vibes on their side all season long. How much will Seattle’s ability to keep finding a way matter in Game 7?
Jeff Passan: Vibes take a team only so far. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and ability to hit home runs — and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and the offense to chill with the strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby got shelled for eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. He instead needs to channel his last win-or-go-home game, when he throttled Detroit for five innings in the division series.
While Seattle has outhomered the Blue Jays in the ALCS, its 28.1% strikeout rate is not good, and Shane Bieber, on the mound for Toronto, will rely heavily on spin — so that happens to play right into his wheelhouse. Both teams are worn down, and getting an early lead would go a long way toward getting the Mariners’ offense right.
Olney: After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how their energy is good and that coming back is part of their identity. But it’s much more important for Seattle to play a clean game — which Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday’s loss. The Mariners made many mistakes early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez and a baserunning mistake by J.P. Crawford. The Blue Jays consistently put the ball in play and pressure the defense, and Seattle has to respond better to survive.
3. Which team has the Game 7 pitching advantage, and why?
David Schoenfield: Slight edge overall to the Blue Jays, mostly based on how the pitching matchup played out in Game 3, when Bieber pitched well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 swinging strikes) and Kirby did not (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine swinging strikes). The Mariners have the late-game edge with Andres Munoz, who will have two days of rest after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches Sunday.
The Mariners do have some early long relief options available in Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in his Game 4 start), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Woo is an unknown risk, pitching on two days of rest coming off an injury. Look for Kevin Gausman to be a bullpen option for the Blue Jays. Indeed, the Jays would probably like to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Varland and Hoffman and go no deeper in their pen than that. If someone else gets in the game, though, the Mariners have a chance.
Castillo: The starting pitching edge goes to Toronto for the reasons David presented, but the unknown variable here is Bryan Woo. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle’s ace during the regular season, but a pectoral injury has limited him to those two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners any real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andrés Muñoz also on three days’ rest. Woo is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. He could be the difference.
4. Which player MUST deliver for Seattle to win?
Schoenfield: Kirby. Through six ALCS games, Bryce Miller is the only Mariners starter who has had a good game — and he was the worst of the group in the regular season. Even with two solid efforts from Miller, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing a .310 average and .993 OPS. Kirby doesn’t have to go deep — and won’t be expected to — but Seattle needs four or five strong innings from him.
Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I’ll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate has been Seattle’s best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him have such a rough Game 6, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, a GIDP, and a throwing error that allowed Toronto’s final run to score. It’s hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without some contributions from Raleigh.
5. Which player MUST deliver for Toronto to move on?
Passan: In the Blue Jays’ six wins this postseason, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one strikeout in 30 plate appearances. He is a human litmus test and a reminder that as Vlad Jr. goes, so go the Blue Jays. Getting a good start from Bieber would help plenty — Toronto’s bullpen this postseason has been so helter skelter, relying on any reliever for too long is inviting disaster — but amid the endless cycling of pitchers expected in Game 7, the players with the opportunities to do the most will be on the offensive side. And in the ALCS, no one has been better than Guerrero, who has struck out just twice in 47 plate appearances this postseason.
Olney: Bieber, due to all of the uncertainty presented by the Toronto bullpen. It’s unclear how much Hoffman can provide following his Game 6 outing, and while Varland is trusted, he’s also going to be working on back-to-back days. Jays manager John Schneider talked before Game 6 about possibly using Max Scherzer out of the bullpen, or maybe Chris Bassitt, but it’s difficult to know exactly what he’s going to get from either.
The Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline in the hope that he could pitch meaningful games for them, and it’s hard to imagine a situation more important to a franchise playing for the opportunity to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.
6. Call your shot: Who is one unexpected player you think could decide Game 7?
Schoenfield: Ernie Clement has become less surprising as the postseason has rolled along, as he’s hitting .447. Remarkably, he and Guerrero have struck out just twice each in 10 postseason games. That sums up Toronto’s advantage at the plate: These guys put the ball in play. Considering Guerrero might not see a pitch any closer than Manitoba in this game, the players coming up behind him might have to do the damage — and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.
Passan: Crawford bats in the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup and has only two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, he’s due, for one, but beyond that, Crawford puts together excellent plate appearances every time up — his 4.5 pitches per is the second-highest number among regulars — and he has the lowest strikeout rate among any Seattle player this series.
During the regular season, Crawford’s high-leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves moments that matter. And none in the history of the Mariners franchise matters as much as a Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.
7. And really call your shot: Which team will be the last one standing in this ALCS?
Castillo: I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season began so I’m not going to deviate from that even though the Blue Jays have been the better team since dropping the first two games of this series. Seattle rebounds with a 6-4 win.
Passan: The coin-flip nature of postseason baseball is personified by the record of home teams in winner-takes-all games: 71-67. And considering how back-and-forth this series has been, either team emerging would make plenty of sense. The idea that Kirby and Bieber both shove is very realistic, which would make this a battle of the bullpens. With Andrés Muńoz able to work multiple innings after two days’ rest and Hoffman coming off a 35-pitch outing, though, the edge tilts ever so slightly in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners advance to their first World Series with a 3-2 win.
Bonus: Which team should the Dodgers want to see move on — or is L.A. simply too good for it to matter?
Passan: Simply because Los Angeles would have home-field advantage and less strenuous travel, the answer is Seattle. In terms of talent, as the ALCS has illustrated, the Blue Jays and Mariners are about as evenly matched as it gets. The Blue Jays’ lack of an effective left-handed reliever against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy would work decidedly in Los Angeles’ favor.
Similarly, the Mariners have difficulty hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular-season OPS against 97-mph-plus heaters was .639 (compared to Toronto’s MLB-best .766), and while they have hit four home runs off such pitches in the postseason, they remain susceptible. In the end, whoever advances faces a juggernaut that will be heavily favored and rightfully so.
Olney: In speaking with some evaluators with other teams, there is near unanimity in the opinion that the Blue Jays would present a better challenge to L.A. because of the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently and, of course, have Guerrero; with all due respect to all of the future Hall of Famers in the Dodgers’ lineup, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he played in right now.
We’ll see that in Game 7, when it seems very likely the Mariners will pitch around him just about every opportunity they have — an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than strikeouts (two) in the postseason.
Sports
Yesavage dominates M’s as Jays force Game 7
Published
2 hours agoon
October 20, 2025By
admin
-
Jorge CastilloOct 19, 2025, 11:32 PM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
TORONTO — Trey Yesavage had just finished his bullpen session in Seattle on Thursday, his final tuneup before taking the ball and helping extend the Toronto Blue Jays‘ season with a 6-2 win in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Sunday, when he asked Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, two veteran starters with 24 major league seasons between them, what was the furthest they’ve ever advanced in the postseason.
“This is as far as I’ve gone,” the 34-year-old Gausman, a 13-year veteran, told the rookie. “You don’t get these opportunities very often.”
The conversation left a mark on Yesavage as he prepared for his sixth career start — all since making his debut Sept. 15 — with the Blue Jays’ season riding on his right arm. And he made sure to give the Blue Jays a chance to advance further by limiting the Seattle Mariners, sloppy and wasteful with the chance to put the Blue Jays away, to two runs across 5⅔ innings with help from three consecutive inning-ending double plays at a raucous Rogers Centre.
“This was the most electric, energized crowd I’ve ever played in front of before,” said Yesavage, who struck out seven and walked three. “And the team rallied behind the fans. They were a huge motivation for us.”
Toronto outplayed the Mariners in every facet Sunday. Perhaps the best defense in baseball, the Blue Jays played mistake-free defense, while the Mariners committed three errors. They ran the bases effectively, while the Mariners failed to snatch every 90-foot advancement available. They delivered when scoring opportunities arose.
Toronto’s performance forced a Game 7 on Monday night. It’ll be its first Game 7 in 40 years and Seattle’s first in franchise history. The Blue Jays, after dropping two games at home to begin this season, will play for their first AL pennant since 1993. The Mariners seek their first pennant in franchise history. The winner will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
“My emotional state has been a fricking mess for months, man, to be honest with you,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “I’m just calling it what it is. This is fun. I wish we were playing right now.”
The Mariners’ first two defensive miscues moments apart in the second inning helped dig a two-run hole. First, Julio Rodríguez failed to cleanly track down a single from Daulton Varsho to the left-center field gap, allowing Varsho to take second base. The next batter, Ernie Clement, laced a groundball to third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who smoothly gloved it but lost the ball on the transfer to throw.
Addison Barger and Isiah Kiner-Falefa immediately capitalized with consecutive RBI singles to open the scoring against Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert. An inning later, after Clement drove a two-out triple off the top of the wall in right field, Barger cracked a two-run home run to double Toronto’s lead. Barger, the Blue Jays’ right fielder, has hit safely in four straight games and has reached base safely in seven of his eight starts after beginning the season as Triple-A Buffalo’s starting shortstop.
“It felt awesome,” Barger said. “Obviously, that’s a moment you dream about as a kid and everything. Yeah, Gilbert’s, he’s disgusting. He has a great arm. I think [he] just left that slider a little too middle and [I] got extended on it and that was it.”
On the other side, the Mariners ran traffic on the bases against Yesavage but unfathomably encountered the same abrupt rally killer for three straight innings. The misfortune began when Cal Raleigh, the regular-season AL MVP contender with four postseason home runs, hit into a 3-6-1 double play on a splitter with the bases loaded in the third inning to extinguish the first danger Yesavage faced. Raleigh finished 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.
In the fourth, Crawford, again with the bases loaded and on a splitter from Yesavage, grounded into a 4-6-3 double play as the Mariners became the first team to ground into double plays with the bases loaded in two straight innings in a postseason game since it became an official statistic in 1940, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
“In that moment, to make pitches, to get over and cover first and not screw it up, to settle himself down, I think that shows exactly who he is and what we think he is,” Schneider said.
Finally, with runners on first and second in the fifth, Rodríguez completed the trifecta, grounding into a 6-4-3 double play that left the Mariners stunned and the crowd jacked by Yesavage’s successful highwire acts in succession after not inducing a groundball double play in the big leagues before Sunday.
“We did have some opportunities to score, and we did get some base runners on,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “But you give a little credit to Yesavage. The secondaries that he had tonight were good. It kept us off stride and kept the ball on the ground for those double plays.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. then continued his October assault in the bottom half of the inning with a leadoff home run to chase Gilbert from the game. The homer was Guerrero’s sixth of the postseason, tying him with José Bautista and Joe Carter for the franchise record for most career postseason home runs.
He finished the night’s scoring by wreaking havoc on the bases: After getting hit by a pitch with one out in the seventh inning, Guerrero advanced to second base on a single from Alejandro Kirk, took third on a wild pitch and jogged home when Raleigh’s throw to third base bounced past Suárez into left field.
“A run is a run,” Guerrero said in Spanish. “We had to score as many as possible, however we could.”
The Mariners broke through with two outs in the sixth inning. Josh Naylor, an Ontario native, swatted his third home run of the series for Seattle’s first run. Randy Arozarena followed with a single that knocked Yesavage out of the game at 87 pitches. Suarez then welcomed reliever Louis Varland by dropping a bloop double down the right-field line to score Arozarena from first base.
But that was all Seattle’s offense, a unit that heavily relies on home runs and didn’t hit any Sunday, could muster. From there, Varland and Jeff Hoffman held Seattle scoreless over the final 3⅓ innings to finish what the Blue Jays’ 22-year-old rookie started.
Yesavage’s postseason career began with a gem: 5⅔ no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts and no walks in Game 2 of the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees. His second start was not nearly the same.
It had been six days since the Mariners scored five runs in four innings against Yesavage in Game 2, handing the 2024 first-round pick his first adversity at the highest level. For Gausman, a fellow splitter-heavy right-hander, Yesavage’s outing came down to one mistake splitter that Rodríguez swatted down the left-field line for a three-run home run in the first inning.
On Sunday, Yesavage threw the splitter — his signature pitch — 31 times and got 10 whiffs. He used it to wiggle out of the game’s biggest jams with a composure not expected from someone who began his season by walking six batters in Single A. Six-plus months later, those pitches helped keep Toronto’s season alive and a deeper run possible.
“His confidence for 22 is — I couldn’t make that start when I was 22,” Gausman said. “I’ll be honest with you.”
Trending
-
Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years ago
Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year ago
Here are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024