Connect with us

Published

on

When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago, and the sport’s championship evolved from two to four teams, even the system’s creators couldn’t answer some of the questions that arose — or they had a heckuva time trying.

What was the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you measure a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength derived from the perceived strength of a contender’s own conference?

When the 12-team CFP is unveiled this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s task — and its protocol — remains mostly unchanged, but an unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.

In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.

1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?

Losing isn’t something the top national title contenders are used to — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things tricky in the committee meeting room.

The committee has historically rewarded teams that play tougher opponents, holding wins against CFP top 25 teams in high regard. With the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16, though, some CFP contenders now have a more difficult path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it even more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams that participated in the SEC championship game had one or no losses. During that same time frame, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.

Now?

According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance to finish the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and none have more than a 20% chance to go 12-0. The only other time during the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% chance to finish undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.

What will that mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared with contenders from the ACC and Big 12 — teams with better records but against fewer ranked opponents?

“Do I think there’s going to be teams with multiple losses in the playoff? Yes, most certainly there is,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football teams get left out. Ultimately, everybody has a chance to go out on the grass and perform and play and earn the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get left out that probably shouldn’t. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was probably three times I thought we were one of the best four teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”


2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will fill the bracket?

Using last year’s final CFP ranking with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would have combined for 10 of the 12 spots.

SEC champion Alabama would have been in along with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan would have been joined by Washington (the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.

There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will usually feature the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the highest ranked G5 winner).

How often will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives?


3. How difficult will it be to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team looming?

The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the higher seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the best team in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about — either consciously or unconsciously — as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?

Remember, these games will be played on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which could be very cold on some campuses — particularly in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.)

How much of an advantage might that be if they are hosting a team from the South?

Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage because of its smaller size and location. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.


4. What will the criteria be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?

Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group of 5’s coveted bid to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25.

Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned a spot in the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s selection an anomaly last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Top 25?

In the four-team playoff, even the best Group of 5 champions faced a nearly impossible standard to reach the CFP — an undefeated record that included wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach a CFP semifinal in the decade of the four-team playoff.

The criteria for reaching the 12-team field will be highly scrutinized because of the likelihood that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will bump out a strong contender at No. 12. Remember, It’s not the committee’s top 12 teams. It’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be snubbed to make room for it.

If the fifth champion is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then announce the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion along with the Top 25.

Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Will it matter?


5. How will the playoff path change for independents?

It’s not just Notre Dame that will be impacted by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to play in.

If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they can’t earn a first-round bye because they can’t finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. They would play a first-round game and need to win four straight games to win the national title.

In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were already in the top four heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, though, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was competing.

Now?

The Irish should be in more often than not if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee opponents, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and avoid upsets to Marshall.

Oregon State’s best opportunity will be Sept. 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the former Pac-12 teams need to leave no doubt they’re playoff material against unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.

Continue Reading

Sports

Sources: Nats demote All-Star after all-nighter

Published

on

By

Sources: Nats demote All-Star after all-nighter

The Washington Nationals demoted All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams to the minor leagues after he stayed out all night at a Chicago-area casino, leaving only hours before a Friday day game against the Chicago Cubs, sources told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

The 23-year-old Abrams led off for the Nationals and went 0 for 3 with a walk and strikeout in Friday’s game, which started at 1 p.m. CT. He was informed of the demotion Friday night, sources said. He will be sent to West Palm Beach, home of the Nationals’ minor league complex.

Because Abrams has been with Washington for the entirety of the season, the demotion will not affect his service time. Players earn a full year of service with 172 days on the major league roster, and Abrams already has exceeded that threshold.

Abrams could, however, file a grievance through the Major League Baseball Players Association to fight for lost pay if he believes the demotion unjust. He would lose around $30,000 of his $752,000 salary for missing the season’s final week. Abrams will be arbitration-eligible this winter, entering the system for the first of four times as a Super 2.

Acquired as one of the centerpieces of the Juan Soto trade two years ago, Abrams parlayed a breakout first-half into an All-Star selection, hitting .268/.343/.489 with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases over the Nationals’ first 89 games. He struggled significantly in the second half, slashing .203/.260/.326, and Abrams’ defense has been a weakness throughout the season.

Still, the Nationals did not intend to send him to the minor leagues until they learned of his time spent at the casino, which was first reported Friday by CHGO.

“I just want it to be known it wasn’t performance-based,” Nationals manager Dave Martinez told reporters Saturday. “It’s an internal issue. I’m not going to give specifics.”

Continue Reading

Sports

Clemson DE Woods (leg) sidelined vs. NC State

Published

on

By

Clemson DE Woods (leg) sidelined vs. NC State

CLEMSON, S.C. — Clemson defensive end Peter Woods will not play for the 21st-ranked Tigers against NC State on Saturday because of a leg injury.

The team announced Woods’ status about 90 minutes before kickoff. Woods, 6-foot-3, 315 pounds, got hurt two weeks ago on a chop block below the knee in a 66-20 victory over App State. Woods came back in briefly after getting checked then missed the second half.

The Tigers were off last weekend.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has said Woods’ playing status was day-to-day. Swinney said Woods had not missed a practice. But Woods came out to the field for warmups in sneakers and sweatpants while other defensive linemen went through drills.

Woods leads the Tigers with 2½ tackles for loss.

Third-year sophomore Jahiem Lawson is listed as Woods’ backup on the depth chart.

NC State will be without starting quarterback Grayson McCall, who was hurt last week in a win over Louisiana Tech. Freshman CJ Bailey started for the Wolfpack.

Continue Reading

Sports

Sources: Utah QB Rising (hand) game-time call

Published

on

By

Sources: Utah QB Rising (hand) game-time call

Utah quarterback Cam Rising is a game-time decision with an injury to his throwing hand, sources told ESPN, with the expectation that he will attempt to start.

No. 12 Utah plays at No. 14 Oklahoma State on Saturday, one of the biggest games of the season in the Big 12.

Rising has been limited in practice this week with the injury, and he is not expected to be 100% if he does play. He will be monitored closely to see how his injured fingers impact how he throws. The fingers play a huge role in both spin and velocity, which will impact his effectiveness in the passing game.

He injured his hand Sept. 7 against Baylor in the second quarter when he threw a ball away and was pushed out of bounds and landed awkwardly on the water coolers on the Bears sideline.

Rising warmed up with a glove on his hand before last week’s game against Utah State but did not play, and he was spotted with two fingers wrapped on the sideline against Baylor. It’s uncertain if he will use the glove on Saturday.

Utah’s offense plays a majority of its snaps under center and uses clapping as a mechanism in its snapping operation, which would both stress the fingers.

Backup quarterback Isaac Wilson is a true freshman who made his first career start against Utah State, going 20-of-33 passing for 239 yards and three touchdowns. He took first-team reps in practice this week when Rising wasn’t out there.

Wilson is the brother of former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, who now plays in the NFL for the Denver Broncos.

Rising is a seventh-year senior who had emerged as one of the Pac-12’s top quarterbacks in 2021 and 2022. He has been snakebit by injuries in recent seasons, as an injury in the Rose Bowl following the 2022 season ultimately led to him missing the entire 2023 season.

Continue Reading

Trending