College Football Playoff: Five questions for the committee
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago, and the sport’s championship evolved from two to four teams, even the system’s creators couldn’t answer some of the questions that arose — or they had a heckuva time trying.
What was the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you measure a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength derived from the perceived strength of a contender’s own conference?
When the 12-team CFP is unveiled this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s task — and its protocol — remains mostly unchanged, but an unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.
In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.
1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?
Losing isn’t something the top national title contenders are used to — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things tricky in the committee meeting room.
The committee has historically rewarded teams that play tougher opponents, holding wins against CFP top 25 teams in high regard. With the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16, though, some CFP contenders now have a more difficult path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it even more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams that participated in the SEC championship game had one or no losses. During that same time frame, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.
Now?
According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance to finish the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and none have more than a 20% chance to go 12-0. The only other time during the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% chance to finish undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.
What will that mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared with contenders from the ACC and Big 12 — teams with better records but against fewer ranked opponents?
“Do I think there’s going to be teams with multiple losses in the playoff? Yes, most certainly there is,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football teams get left out. Ultimately, everybody has a chance to go out on the grass and perform and play and earn the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get left out that probably shouldn’t. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was probably three times I thought we were one of the best four teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”
2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will fill the bracket?
Using last year’s final CFP ranking with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would have combined for 10 of the 12 spots.
SEC champion Alabama would have been in along with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan would have been joined by Washington (the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.
There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will usually feature the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the highest ranked G5 winner).
How often will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives?
3. How difficult will it be to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team looming?
The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the higher seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the best team in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about — either consciously or unconsciously — as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?
Remember, these games will be played on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which could be very cold on some campuses — particularly in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.)
How much of an advantage might that be if they are hosting a team from the South?
Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage because of its smaller size and location. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.
4. What will the criteria be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?
Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group of 5’s coveted bid to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25.
Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned a spot in the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s selection an anomaly last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Top 25?
In the four-team playoff, even the best Group of 5 champions faced a nearly impossible standard to reach the CFP — an undefeated record that included wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach a CFP semifinal in the decade of the four-team playoff.
The criteria for reaching the 12-team field will be highly scrutinized because of the likelihood that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will bump out a strong contender at No. 12. Remember, It’s not the committee’s top 12 teams. It’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be snubbed to make room for it.
If the fifth champion is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then announce the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion along with the Top 25.
Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Will it matter?
5. How will the playoff path change for independents?
It’s not just Notre Dame that will be impacted by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to play in.
If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they can’t earn a first-round bye because they can’t finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. They would play a first-round game and need to win four straight games to win the national title.
In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were already in the top four heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, though, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was competing.
Now?
The Irish should be in more often than not if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee opponents, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and avoid upsets to Marshall.
Oregon State’s best opportunity will be Sept. 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the former Pac-12 teams need to leave no doubt they’re playoff material against unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.
On New Year’s Eve, Penn State became the first team to lock up a spot in a College Football Playoff semifinal when it beat Boise State 31-14 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. Texas needed double overtime to escape a gritty Arizona State team 39-31 on New Year’s Day and advance to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, where it will face Ohio State on Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Penn State, which has yet to trail in a CFP game, will face the winner of Notre Dame–Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl was postponed until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday after a deadly truck attack in New Orleans that killed at least 15 and injured dozens more.
While Penn State awaits its opponent, here’s an early look at the semifinal matchup between Texas and Ohio State. — Heather Dinich
When: Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the quarterfinals: Texas has gone through quite an identity crisis over the past six weeks on offense. The Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to not being able to run in the SEC championship, back to rushing domination in the first round against Clemson, back to struggling on the ground against Arizona State. So which Texas rushing attack will show up against Ohio State? There is no doubt that Texas will need a bigger rushing effort to beat the Buckeyes. Perhaps offensive tackle Cameron Williams will be healthy enough to play and will help make a difference. Either way, we learned that Texas still has work to do to put together a complete offensive performance.
X factor: TE Gunnar Helm. Texas likes to utilize its tight ends in the offense Steve Sarkisian runs, and Helm came up huge in the win over Arizona State, with three catches for 56 yards — and the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Helm was big in the opening-round win over Clemson, too, with six catches for 77 yards and a score. Sarkisian praised him leading into the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, saying, “The multiplicity of the things that the tight end has to do in our systems make him extremely valuable. When you have a good one, I think that that makes our lives a lot easier from a playcaller perspective.”
How Texas wins: Texas has been ranked the No. 1 defense in the country for the bulk of the season for a reason, and we saw that for large swaths of its win over Arizona State. The Longhorns will have to continue to set the tone up front and get after Will Howard to make him uncomfortable. Michigan provided the blueprint for winning in November, when it dominated the Buckeyes on both lines of scrimmage. Texas certainly has the potential to do that with its defensive and offensive fronts. But the Longhorns will have to absolutely be better on their offensive line to have any shot to win. They were overwhelmed at times by a smaller Arizona State defensive front. — Andrea Adelson
What we learned in the quarterfinals: No one can stop Jeremiah Smith, and by extension, the Ohio State offense. Against an Oregon team that defeated them in October, the Buckeyes came out of the gates at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential ready to prove the Ducks didn’t have their number. Thanks to Smith, who caught five balls for 161 yards and had two touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards in the first half alone (he finished with 187 yards), Ohio State looked to be playing at a different speed, as Oregon seemed helpless on both sides of the ball. The freshman wide receiver was a blur, speeding past the Ducks’ secondary with ease while making his case for being not just the best freshman in the country — or the best wide receiver — but one of the best players in the sport. It helped that nearly every Ohio State skill player who touched the ball found gold — running back TreVeyon Henderson averaged double-digit yards per carry while adding two touchdowns, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka added his own tremendous play in a 42-yard touchdown grab in the first half. It was all a reminder that the best version of this Buckeyes team might just be unstoppable.
X factor: RB TreVeyon Henderson. Texas’ defense might have no choice but to sell out to stop Smith, and though Smith might still get his, it will certainly open things up for other wideouts on the Buckeyes’ offense in addition to Henderson. The senior has not been particularly splashy this season, but he has been consistent. In Pasadena, however, he looked as good as ever, recording his first 100-yard game of the season. There’s no question that Ohio State’s air game is its strength, but if it can pair it with more consistent running from Henderson, the Longhorns will have a tough time on defense.
How Ohio State wins: Short of doing exactly what they did to dominate Oregon in Pasadena, the Buckeyes have a clear recipe for success now. The confidence they inherited from avenging their loss to the Ducks should be enough proof that they have the talent and execution to beat any team remaining, especially Texas. A healthy dose of Smith will be essential, and the stout defense that has had more sacks than any other playoff team so far will need to pressure Quinn Ewers, but a lot will certainly fall on Will Howard‘s shoulders. In the Rose Bowl, Howard looked as comfortable as he has looked all season long. He had no crucial mistakes, threw three touchdown passes and found Smith over and over again to much success. He’ll have to do more of the same in the Cotton Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
OTTAWA, Ontario — Danny Nelson scored the eventual game-winner in the third period and Trey Augustine made 38 saves, leading the United States to a 4-1 win over Canada on Tuesday night and into the top spot in Group A at the world junior hockey championship.
Cole Hutson and Cole Eiserman each had a goal and an assist for the Americans. Ryan Leonard scored into an empty-net.
Bradly Nadeau scored for Canada, which allowed three goals on seven American power plays. Carter George stopped 24 shots.
Canada finished third in the pool and will face Czechia in Thursday’s quarterfinals. The Americans face Switzerland.
“We’re not here to beat Canada tonight,” Augustine said. “We’re here to win a gold medal.”
The other matchups will have Group B winner Sweden take on Latvia, and Finland square off with Slovakia.
Canada and the U.S. played in the same building exactly 16 years to the day at the 2009 event, when John Tavares scored a memorable hat trick in Canada’s 7-4 comeback victory on New Year’s Eve. The Canadians went on to win a fifth straight gold.
“That’s something that’s storybook-like,” Eiserman said of beating Canada on home soil in the tournament’s marquee round-robin matchup. “Something that you’ve dreamt of.”
The teams met on New Year’s Eve for the first time since Dec. 31, 2016, when Canada picked up a 3-1 victory in Toronto. The U.S. got revenge less than a week later with a 5-4 shootout win in the title game in Montreal.
The Americans opened this under-20 tournament with a 10-4 win over Germany followed by a 5-1 victory over Latvia before losing to Finland 4-3 in overtime. Canada started with a 4-0 defeat of Finland before falling to Latvia 3-2 in a shootout and then rebounding to beat Germany 3-0.
The Canadians had a power play to start the third period while trailing 1-0 after Leonard took a roughing call at the end of the second. Nadeau blasted a one-timer for his first goal of the tournament off a feed from Brayden Yager at 1:58.
Nelson restored the U.S. lead at 4:22, taking a pass from Huston and beating George with his third goal.
The U.S. scored its third power-play goal of the game at 13:21 when Eiserman scored his second and put the game out of reach at 3-1 after a boarding penalty by Canada’s Easton Cowan.
Leonard scored into the empty net with 1:52 left in regulation to spark chants of “U-S-A! U-S-A!”
George, who entered with consecutive shutouts that bookended the Latvia loss, saw his streak end at 133:02 on Tuesday’s first power play to silence the beer-chugging crowd at Canadian Tire Centre.
In the first period, Hutson took advantage of a failed Canadian clearing attempt on a U.S. power play and scored his second goal of the tournament.
Tempers flared later in the period when Canada’s Luca Pinelli and Zeev Buium of the U.S. went off for roughing and then jawed at each other in the penalty box.
Leonard hit another post for the Americans and Carson Rehkopf fired an effort that Augustine, who entered with an .879 save percentage in two starts, got enough of with his glove at the other end before tempers again boiled over at the buzzer.
In another Group A game, Finland beat Latvia 3-0 and finished second in the group. In Group B, Switzerland beat Kazakhstan 3-1 to secure a spot in the quarterfinal round. Also, Sweden completed a sweep of its four preliminary round games, beating Czechia 4-2 in another Group B game.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
New York Rangers star goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, an NHL source told ESPN on Tuesday.
The Rangers recalled NHL veteran Louis Domingue from the AHL Hartford Wolf Pack. Shesterkin’s backup, Jonathan Quick, is 5-4-0 in 12 games this season with a .907 save percentage and a 2.69 goals-against average.
Shesterkin stopped 21 of 25 shots in the Rangers’ 5-3 loss to the Florida Panthers on Monday night. During that game, Panthers forward Sam Bennett was checked into Shesterkin’s upper body by Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Shesterkin was down on the ice briefly but didn’t leave the game.
Shesterkin, 29, is 11-15-1 in 27 games this season with a .906 save percentage and a 3.10 goals-against average. While the Rangers are 20th in goals against per game this season, Shesterkin is second among all goalies with 13 goals saved above replacement, according to Stathletes.
It has been an eventful month for Shesterkin. He signed a contract extension with the Rangers on Dec. 6 that makes him the highest-paid goalie in NHL history: an eight-year, $92 million deal that starts in the 2025-26 season. The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner is in the final year of a four-year deal with an average annual value of $5.66 million.
The injury to Shesterkin is the latest bit of adversity for the Rangers this season. They are 16-19-1 after 36 games, having lost four in a row and going 2-8-0 in their past 10. The Rangers were seven points out of a playoff spot entering Tuesday night.
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