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When the College Football Playoff was introduced more than a decade ago, and the sport’s championship evolved from two to four teams, even the system’s creators couldn’t answer some of the questions that arose — or they had a heckuva time trying.

What was the value of winning a conference title when two SEC teams could be in and two Power 5 conference champions were out? When do head-to-head results matter? And at what point are they dismissed? How do you measure a team’s schedule strength? And how much was a schedule’s strength derived from the perceived strength of a contender’s own conference?

When the 12-team CFP is unveiled this fall, it will again be a learning curve for everyone — fans, coaches, players, media and the selection committee. The committee’s task — and its protocol — remains mostly unchanged, but an unprecedented 12-team field naturally raises new questions for the group charged with ranking the best teams in the country.

In the spirit of the new CFP format, which will guarantee playoff spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, here are five questions for the committee.

1. Will strength-of-schedule evaluations change with conference realignment?

Losing isn’t something the top national title contenders are used to — but even some coaches expect that to change, and it could make things tricky in the committee meeting room.

The committee has historically rewarded teams that play tougher opponents, holding wins against CFP top 25 teams in high regard. With the Big Ten expanding to 18 teams and the SEC to 16, though, some CFP contenders now have a more difficult path to their own conference championship game. The rigorous SEC and Big Ten schedules are going to make it even more difficult for those respective leagues to produce undefeated or even one-loss conference champions.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, since 2014, 14 of the 20 teams that participated in the SEC championship game had one or no losses. During that same time frame, 11 of 20 Big Ten teams playing in the league championship game had one or no losses.

Now?

According to ESPN’s preseason FPI, only three teams have at least a 10% chance to finish the regular season undefeated (Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia), and none have more than a 20% chance to go 12-0. The only other time during the CFP era that no teams had more than a 20% chance to finish undefeated was 2016, and Alabama was the only Power 5 team to finish 12-0 that year.

What will that mean at Selection Central when teams from those leagues have multiple losses and are being compared with contenders from the ACC and Big 12 — teams with better records but against fewer ranked opponents?

“Do I think there’s going to be teams with multiple losses in the playoff? Yes, most certainly there is,” said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “How do you differentiate? I’ll leave that to the committee. That’s why we have the system we have. … There’s going to be debate about what football teams get left out. Ultimately, everybody has a chance to go out on the grass and perform and play and earn the right to get in. Somebody’s going to get left out that probably shouldn’t. … We had that with the four-team playoff. There was probably three times I thought we were one of the best four teams but we didn’t earn it on the field.”


2. How many teams from the SEC and Big Ten will fill the bracket?

Using last year’s final CFP ranking with conference realignment for 2024, the Big Ten and SEC would have combined for 10 of the 12 spots.

SEC champion Alabama would have been in along with Texas, Georgia, Mizzou and Ole Miss. Big Ten champion Michigan would have been joined by Washington (the Pac-12 champion in 2023), Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.

There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify for the playoff, but there are guaranteed spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. Most likely those will usually feature the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and a Group of 5 winner. In 2023 those winners were Florida State (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12, now in the SEC) and Liberty (out of Conference USA, the highest ranked G5 winner).

How often will the conference champs from the ACC and Big 12 be their lone representatives?


3. How difficult will it be to rank the No. 8 and No. 9 teams with the No. 1 team looming?

The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a first-round bye. Everyone else will play a first-round game on the home campus of the higher seed. The winner of the game between No. 8 and No. 9 will face the best team in the country in the quarterfinal. The loser goes home. Is this something the committee will think about — either consciously or unconsciously — as it compiles its final ranking on Selection Day?

Remember, these games will be played on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 this year, which could be very cold on some campuses — particularly in the Big Ten. (According to Accuweather.com, Ann Arbor, Michigan, had a high of 38 degrees last Dec. 20 and a low of 21 degrees.)

How much of an advantage might that be if they are hosting a team from the South?

Last year, in a 12-team field, Oregon would have hosted Mizzou. Autzen Stadium has a distinct home-field advantage because of its smaller size and location. The winner of that game would have played No. 1 seed and Big Ten champion Michigan.


4. What will the criteria be for ranking the top Group of 5 champion?

Last year, the selection committee’s most controversial ranking outside of the top four was its decision to slot undefeated Liberty at No. 23, which guaranteed the Flames a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Liberty earned the Group of 5’s coveted bid to a New Year’s Six bowl without beating a single Power 5 opponent. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Flames had the easiest schedule in the country last year (No. 133) entering the postseason. Eight of Liberty’s 12 regular-season opponents finished with losing records. It was a decision that blatantly defied the committee’s typical reverence for strength of schedule and was inconsistent with its justification throughout the rest of its Top 25.

Had the 12-team playoff existed in 2023, Liberty would have earned a spot in the field as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and the Flames would have bumped out No. 12 Oklahoma for the spot. Was Liberty’s selection an anomaly last year? Or is going undefeated the committee’s new standard for the Group of 5, regardless of schedule strength? If so, does that translate to the rest of their Top 25?

In the four-team playoff, even the best Group of 5 champions faced a nearly impossible standard to reach the CFP — an undefeated record that included wins against Power 5 opponents and CFP Top 25-ranked teams. In 2021, Cincinnati, which was then a member of the American Athletic Conference, was the only team to reach a CFP semifinal in the decade of the four-team playoff.

The criteria for reaching the 12-team field will be highly scrutinized because of the likelihood that the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will bump out a strong contender at No. 12. Remember, It’s not the committee’s top 12 teams. It’s the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. So if that fifth champion is ranked outside of the top 12, the unlucky 12th team will be snubbed to make room for it.

If the fifth champion is not ranked at all, then the selection committee will separately rank the Group of 5 champions and then announce the top school as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion along with the Top 25.

Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Will it matter?


5. How will the playoff path change for independents?

It’s not just Notre Dame that will be impacted by the new format. Oregon State and Washington State will also be treated as independents this fall, as they no longer have a Pac-12 conference championship game to play in.

If any of those schools qualify for the 12-team field, they can’t earn a first-round bye because they can’t finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. They would play a first-round game and need to win four straight games to win the national title.

In the past, not having a conference title game was a pro-con situation for the Irish. If they were already in the top four heading into Selection Day, the Irish didn’t have to risk losing and falling out. If they were on the bubble, though, there wasn’t another opportunity to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame had to sit and wait and hope for help while everyone else was competing.

Now?

The Irish should be in more often than not if they finish with no more than one — maybe two — losses, depending on their schedule, results and how everyone else fares. There is far less pressure to go undefeated, even without a conference title. They still need to beat the marquee opponents, though, like Texas A&M, Florida State and USC, and avoid upsets to Marshall.

Oregon State’s best opportunity will be Sept. 14 against rival Oregon, as most of the Beavers’ opponents are Mountain West Conference teams through a scheduling alliance. Washington State faces rival Washington, Texas Tech and Oregon State. Both the former Pac-12 teams need to leave no doubt they’re playoff material against unranked opponents because they may have limited opportunities for CFP top 25 wins.

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Wetzel: Kiffin is no victim, and he needs to own that he just quit on a title contender

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Wetzel: Kiffin is no victim, and he needs to own that he just quit on a title contender

As victims go, Lane Kiffin doesn’t seem like one.

He could have stayed at Ole Miss, made over $10 million a year, led his 11-1 team into a home playoff game and become an icon at a place where he supposedly found personal tranquility. Or he could’ve left for LSU to make over $10 million a year leading a program that has won three national titles this century.

Fortunate would be one description of such a fork in life’s road. The result of endless work and talent would be another.

But apparently no one knows a man’s burdens until they’ve walked a mile in his hot yoga pants.

Per his resignation statement on social media, it was spiritual, familial and mentor guidance that led Kiffin to go to LSU, not all those five-star recruits in New Orleans.

“After a lot of prayer and time spent with family, I made the difficult decision to accept the head coaching position at LSU,” he wrote.

In an interview with ESPN’s Marty Smith, Kiffin noted “my heart was [at Ole Miss], but I talked to some mentors, Coach [Pete] Carroll, Coach [Nick] Saban. Especially when Coach Carroll said, ‘Your dad would tell you to go. Take the shot.'” Kiffin later added: “I talked to God, and he told me it’s time to take a new step.”

After following everyone else’s advice, Kiffin discovered those mean folks at Ole Miss wouldn’t let him keep coaching the Rebels through the College Football Playoff on account of the fact Kiffin was now, you know, the coach of rival LSU.

Apparently quitting means different things to different people. Shame on Ole Miss for having some self-esteem.

“I was hoping to complete a historic six-season run … ,” Kiffin said. “My request to do so was denied by [Rebels athletic director] Keith Carter despite the team also asking him to allow me to keep coaching them so they could better maintain their high level of performance.”

Well, if he hoped enough, Kiffin could have just stayed and done it. He didn’t. Trying to paint this as an Ole Miss decision, not a Lane Kiffin decision, is absurd. You are either in or you are out.

Leaving was Kiffin’s right, of course. He chose what he believes are greener pastures. It might work out; LSU, despite its political dysfunction, is a great place to coach ball.

Kiffin should have just put out a statement saying his dream is to win a national title, and as good as Ole Miss has become, he thinks his chance to do it is so much better at LSU that it was worth giving up on his current players, who formed his best and, really, first nationally relevant team.

At least it would be his honest opinion.

Lately, 50-year-old Kiffin has done all he can to paint himself as a more mature version of a once immature person. In the end, though, he is who he is. That includes traits that make him a very talented football coach. He is unique.

He might never live down being known as the coach who bailed on a title contender. It’s his life, though. It’s his reputation.

One of college sports’ original sins was turning playcallers into life-changers. Yeah, that can happen, boys can become men. A coach’s job is to win, though.

A great coach doesn’t have to be loyal or thoughtful or an example of how life should be lived.

This is the dichotomy of what you get when you hire Kiffin. He was on a heater in Oxford, winning in a way he never did with USC or Tennessee or the Oakland Raiders.

That seemingly should continue at resource-rich LSU. Along the way, you get a colorful circus, a wrestling character with a whistle, a high-wire act that could always break bad. It rarely ends well — from airport firings to near-riot-inducing resignations to an exasperated Nick Saban.

LSU should just embrace it — the good and the not so good. What’s more fun than being the villain? Kiffin might be a problem child, but he’s your problem child. It will probably get you a few more victories on Saturdays. He will certainly get you a few more laughs on social media.

It worked for Ole Miss, at least until it didn’t. Then the Rebels had to finally push him aside. This is Lane Kiffin. You can hardly trust him in the good times.

If anything, Carter had been too nice. He probably should have demanded Kiffin pledge his allegiance weeks back, after Kiffin’s family visited Gainesville, Florida, as well as Baton Rouge.

Instead, Kiffin hemmed and hawed and extended the soap opera, gaining leverage along the way.

Blame was thrown on the “calendar,” even though it was coaches such as Kiffin who created it. And leaving a championship contender is an individual choice that no one else is making.

Blame was put on Ole Miss, as if it should just accept desperate second-class hostage status. Better to promote defensive coordinator Pete Golding and try to win with the people who want to be there.

To Kiffin, the idea of winning is seemingly all that matters. Not necessarily winning, but the idea of winning. Potential playoff teams count for more than current ones. Tomorrow means more than today. Next is better than now.

Maybe that mindset is what got him here, got him all these incredible opportunities, including his new one at LSU, where he must believe he is going to win national title after national title.

So go do that, unapologetically. Own it. Own the decision. Own the quitting. Own the fallout. Everything is possible in Baton Rouge, just not the Victim Lane act.

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Sources: BYU coach Sitake focus of PSU search

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Sources: BYU coach Sitake focus of PSU search

The Penn State coaching search, which has gone quiet in the past few weeks, has focused on BYU coach Kalani Sitake, sources told ESPN on Monday.

The sides have been in discussions, but sources cautioned that no deal has been signed yet. The sides have met, and there is mutual interest, with discussions involving staffing and other details of Sitake’s possible tenure in State College.

No. 11 BYU plays Saturday against No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, with the winner securing an automatic bid in the College Football Playoff. On3 first reported Sitake as Penn State’s top target.

Sitake has been BYU’s coach since 2016, winning more than 65% of his games. He guided BYU to an 11-2 mark in 2024, and the Cougars are 11-1 this year. This is BYU’s third season in the Big 12, and the transition to becoming one of the league’s top teams has been nearly instant.

Penn State officials were active early in their coaching search, which included numerous in-person meetings around the country. That activity has quieted in recent weeks, sources said, even as candidates got new jobs and others received new contracts to stay at their schools.

BYU officials have been aggressive in trying to retain Sitake, according to sources, and consider it the athletic department’s top priority.

BYU plays a style that’s familiar to the Big Ten, with rugged linemen and a power game that’s complemented by a creative passing offense in recent years.

This week, Sitake called the reports linking him to jobs “a good sign” because it means “things are going well for us.”

James Franklin was fired by Penn State in October after going 104-45 over 12 seasons. Franklin’s departure came after three straight losses to open league play. He led Penn State to the College Football Playoff semifinals in January 2025.

Sitake has won at least 10 games in four of his past six seasons at BYU. After going 2-7 in conference play while adjusting to the Big 12 in 2023, BYU has gone 15-3 the past two years and found a quarterback of the future in true freshman Bear Bachmeier.

Sitake has no coaching experience east of the Mountain Time Zone. He was an assistant coach at BYU, Oregon State, Utah, Southern Utah and Eastern Arizona.

Sitake, who played high school football in Missouri, played at BYU before signing with the Cincinnati Bengals in 2001.

He is BYU’s fourth head coach since his mentor, LaVell Edwards, took over in 1972.

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Blues’ Snuggerud (wrist surgery) to miss 6 weeks

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Blues' Snuggerud (wrist surgery) to miss 6 weeks

St. Louis Blues rookie forward Jimmy Snuggerud will miss up to six weeks to have surgery on his left wrist, the team announced Monday morning.

The 21-year-old Snuggerud, who was a first-round pick by the Blues in 2022, used the opening quarter of the season to establish himself as a top-nine forward. His five goals were two away from being tied for the team lead while his 11 points are tied for sixth. He is also seventh in ice time among Blues forwards at 15:26 per game.

His performances also allowed him to maintain a presence within a rookie class that has seen several players make an impact. Snuggered entered Monday tied for eighth in goals among first-year players.

It appears the earliest Snuggerud could return to the lineup, should the six-week timeline hold, would be mid-January. That would allow him to play about 10 games before the NHL enters the Olympic break. The Blues play their last game before the break on Feb. 4.

Snuggerud isn’t the only injury the Blues are managing, with the team also announcing that forward Alexey Toropchenko is week-to-week after sustaining what they described as scalding burns to his legs in a home accident. He’s the second NHL player this season to sustain an injury at home, with Florida Panthers forward Eetu Luostarinen out of the lineup indefinitely after a “barbecuing mishap” that Panthers coach Paul Maurice shared with reporters on Nov. 19.

Toropchenko has a goal and two points while averaging 11:29 in ice time over 17 games this season.

Those absences are the latest developments in what has seen the Blues, which made the playoffs last season, endure one of the most challenging starts of any team in the NHL through the first quarter of this season.

St. Louis (9-10-7) entered Monday as part of a cluster of five teams that are within two points of the Chicago Blackhawks for the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference.

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