Tesla’s Full Self-Driving v12.5 rollout on HW3 failed, what happens next?
Tesla’s rollout of Full Self-Driving v12.5 has failed so far, and owners want to know what happens next?
In 2016, Elon Musk announced that all future Tesla vehicles would come equipped with the necessary hardware for self-driving capabilities, even specifying “level 5 self-driving,” which implies the ability to operate autonomously under any conditions. However, shortly after, Musk acknowledged that Tesla might require more onboard computing power than initially thought, leading to the introduction of Hardware 3 (HW3).
Musk assured that HW3 would enable full self-driving (FSD) capabilities, promising retrofits for earlier models that had purchased the FSD package. Following this, Tesla introduced Hardware 4 (HW4), a more advanced onboard computer system, but did not offer retrofits for older models with HW3, maintaining that HW3 was sufficient for achieving self-driving through software updates.
Initially, Musk claimed that FSD improvements would first be optimized for HW3, suggesting that HW4 might lag behind by at least six months. However, Tesla reversed this approach with the release of FSD version 12.5, which was first deployed to HW4 vehicles. Musk explained that optimizing the software for the less powerful HW3 would take additional time, hinting at the limitations of HW3 in handling the latest software advancements towards unsupervised self-driving, a capability Tesla promised to HW3 owners since 2016.
This rewrite aims to streamline the narrative, focusing on the evolution of Tesla’s self-driving hardware and software, and the strategic shifts in deployment and optimization of FSD capabilities between HW3 and HW4.
Musk said that it would take ten days to adapt v12.5 to HW3.
In late August, about two weeks after Musk’s “10 days” had passed, we reported that Tesla started to push v12.5 to HW3 vehicles.
Not only was the update to HW3 late, but Tesla also confirmed that it was running a smaller model than on HW4.
On top of all that, now three weeks later, Tesla has yet to push v12.5 to the vast majority of FSD vehicles with HW3. Tesla appears to only have pushed v12.5.1.5 to some Tesla HW3 owners and it is now moving HW4 cars to v12.5.2.
Social media and Tesla forums are full of Tesla HW3 owners asking why they haven’t released a new update since v12.3.6 earlier this year despite Musk’s comments.
In its “AI roadmap” released last week, Tesla now claims that HW3 will get the same release as HW4 starting with v12.5.2 this month.
However, v12.5.2 is already in the consumer fleet for HW4 cars and v12.5.3 is already being tested in the beta fleet.
Electrek’s Take
This article is mainly to correct our article from last month that claimed Tesla was pushing v12.5 to HW3 since it turned out to be a very limited release.
Earlier this year, Elon said that Tesla was not compute-constrained for training FSD anymore. He also claimed that the training compute combined with v12’s full end-to-end neural nets would enable much faster software improvements.
And yet, the vast majority of HW3 owners have only received v12.3.6 this year.
That, combined with the fact that Tesla’s AI roadmap makes no mention of unsupervised self-driving whatsoever, and Tesla seemingly stopped promising it on new cars, has completely killed my hopes of Tesla delivering on its self-driving promises on HW3 cars and it has greatly limited by hopes of the same for HW4 cars.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Tesla fully shifts its self-driving strategy to the dedicated robotaxi, but I have no idea how they plan to make HW3 and possibly HW4 owners whole.
Fancy German-made mid-drives are often considered the premier option for electric bikes, offering higher precision engineering and an overall more sophisticated experience. But they’ve also been quite pricey, at least until Ride1Up began running an incredible sale on its normally $2,195 Prodigy XC electric mountain bike, marked down to just $1,295.
I reviewed the urban version of this bike back when it was at full price, and it was a great buy even at its MSRP. But now with this killer Black Friday price, this is a deal that is unlikely to ever be seen again.
The Class 3 electric bicycle can hit speeds of up to 28 mph (45 km/h), and comes with all the benefits of that nice Brose TF Sprinter mid-drive motor. That means you get the smooth and refined torque sensor-based pedal assist, the color screen, and the higher-end ride quality.
Other nice components found on the bike include the Maxxis Forekaster off-road tires, the Tektro quad-piston hydraulic disc brakes, and the 120mm-travel air suspension fork.
At this price, Ride1Up is almost certainly selling the bike at below cost, meaning you’re getting it for less than it costs the company to build these highly-acclaimed e-bikes.
Why would they do that? Because this is the previous generation of the bike, which was eclipsed by the second-generation Prodigy V2. But hey, if this bike was good enough when it came out a year before the V2 (and it was), then it still a great bike today. For those who don’t need the nicest and newest version of a piece of tech, this is an incredible steal of a deal.
Ride1Up is all but certain to be moving these Prodigy XCs at such a low price to clear up shelf space in their warehouse, so when these are gone, they’re gone for good. And this isn’t only a Black Friday price – the company has been moving these bikes for several months at this crazy sale price. That further underscores that this is a clear-out-the-previous-version sale that will be gone for good when the bikes are gone.
At this price, there’s simply no other German-made mid-drive e-bike out there with the bang-for-buck offered by the $1,295 Prodigy XC right now, that’s for sure.
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Working oil pumps against a sunset sky.
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Higher fuel prices could be in the cards if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats on Canada, according to industry experts, who are skeptical on whether the new levies will ever be implemented.
Trump on Monday pledged to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, according to his posts on social media platform Truth Social. He said he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, a move that may breach the terms of a regional free trade agreement.
Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven said that if a 25% levy hit Canadian crude exports to the U.S. “that could, in theory, lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups.”
U.S. refiners who rely on Canadian oil barrels could face lower profit margins, and consumers may potentially face higher prices, surmised Struyven. Lastly, Canadian producers may suffer revenue losses if they are unable to reroute their barrels that would have otherwise gone to the U.S.
America’s imports of Canadian crude oil hit a record of 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024 after the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows.
Daan Struyven
Goldman Sachs
Additionally, refiners in the Midwest, which are more adapted to process Canada’s heavy sour crude rather than the low sulfur sweet crude produced domestically, could also have problems switching should the Canadian imports be interrupted, Struyven told journalists at an online conference.
“If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows,” Struyven said.
Mexico and especially Canada have “notable tightly integrated linkages” with the U.S. when it comes to the oil, natural gas and auto industries, Citigroup wrote in a note following Trump’s announcements this week.
“Absent carve-outs, this would increase costs for U.S. refiners and U.S. consumers,” said the bank’s research team led by Energy Strategist Eric Lee.
However, Goldman highlighted that it is unlikely that the tariffs will be implemented as announced, on the premise that the Trump administration is focused on reducing energy costs.
Trump cannot allow inflation to get out of control in the 15 months before the midterm election season, Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Capital, told CNBC. Shvets believes that tariffs are used as a negotiating tool to achieve certain objectives such as strengthening the border.
“I do not believe for a second that there will be a massive increase in overall tariffs because that will represent a tax on U.S. domestic manufacturers. That will also represent a tax on U.S. exporters,” said Shvets.
Canada’s trade bodies have shared their concerns, too.
“As Canadians, we need to be eyes-wide-open on the President-elect’s promise for across-the-board tariffs,” the CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Lisa Baiton, reportedly said.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta which accounts for the largest production of crude in Canada, said that the Trump administration has “valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared border,” and urged the federal government to resolve said issues immediately to avoid any “unnecessary tariffs” on Canadian exports.
On today’s fact-checking episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got a showdown brewing between California Governor Gavin Newsom and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, an updated 650 hp Kia EV6 GT that’s ready to take on the world, and some sweet deals on battery-powered goodies.
We’ve also got new electric buses at UCLA that are powered by inductive current in the road itself, and a massive new solar project on a site more famous for coal than clean. All this and a little bit of fact-checking on some fresh musky nonsense – enjoy!
Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations site wide. Learn more at this link.
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Read more: E-quipment highlight | Palfinger FLS 25 eDRIVE truck mounted forklift.
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