Connect with us

Published

on

MORE THAN 17,000 fans — and 375 dogs, attending the season’s final Dog Day promotion — descended upon Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday, there to see the Chicago White Sox set the modern-day mark for losses in a single season. One fan even printed out a hard ticket for the game.

“It’s history,” he said. “I want to have a piece of it.”

Inside the clubhouse, players have taken the ignominy in stride over the past 156 games, 120 of them losses. But knowing that this record-setting moment was coming didn’t take away the sting of its arrival.

“This isn’t the kind of attention we want,” outfielder/first baseman Gavin Sheets told what was the largest media contingent of the year, according to several players.

Six hours later — after a pregame rain delay of an hour and five minutes followed by an eighth-inning comeback against the Los Angeles Angels — the White Sox ended the night exactly where they started it: one game away from becoming the worst team in modern baseball history.

Chicago improved to 1-94 when trailing after seven innings — but celebrated the victory on the mound to boos loud enough to be heard through the stadium. The fans’ complicated feelings showed all game long, with a mix of cheers and boos when things went right for the home team and at others chanting “Sell the team!” when things went wrong.

“First comeback win being this late in the season is hard to believe,” outfielder Andrew Benintendi said after the game. “People here tonight were trying to see history. They’re going to have to wait one more day. Maybe.”

There are bad teams in every baseball season. Some of them lose 100 games, maybe more. That was the fate many expected for Chicago – even within the franchise — coming off a 101-loss 2023 season. But unless they have five more unexpected wins in them, the 2024 Chicago White Sox will soon live in baseball infamy as the worst team ever, supplanting the 1962 New York Mets who were 40-120.

“I think if you would have told me we were going to end up flirting with the record I would have been a little surprised,” general manager Chris Getz said Sept. 16. “Now if you would have told me prior to the year that we would have ended up with over 100 losses, 105, 110, I wouldn’t have been as surprised. But this is the cards that we’ve been dealt at this point.”

How does a team go from winning its division three seasons ago to creating a new standard for failure? A disaster of this magnitude must have multiple tributaries. It’s not only about the decades-long habit of owner Jerry Reinsdorf loyally clinging to employees past peak effectiveness. “Old news,” said one staffer. It’s not only about a wave of injuries; lots of teams deal with a lot of injuries. It’s not only about a first-time manager whose tenure was infected by a toxic clubhouse mix. Lots of teams have veterans who don’t get along, though the White Sox seemed to have had more than their share. It’s not only about a handful of players performing at their worst. It’s not only about a first-time general manager taking his first turn on the learning curve. It’s not necessarily about spending — in an era in which teams have slashed payroll to facilitate tanking, the White Sox’s payroll is about $145 million, ranked 18th among 30 teams.

According to more than two dozen sources inside and outside the organization, it’s all of that, together. Over the course of the season, there were missteps from every level of the organization — and just plain bad baseball — that turned the 2024 White Sox from a bad team into a historically awful one.

“There is so much randomness in our sport, and the worst teams still usually win a share of games,” said one rival executive. “But [the White Sox] have taken the randomness out of the sport. They are that bad.”


March 28

Record: 0-0

IN LATE MARCH, then-White Sox manager Pedro Grifol and Getz were trying to decide on their Opening Day starter. Two weeks earlier, the White Sox had traded ace Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres for prospects. The deal came together late because Getz was intent on getting maximum value for the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, but it left the team without time to find a replacement for their ace.

It also effectively served as a white flag on the big league season, the first in charge for the 40-year-old Getz. The new general manager turned his focus to how to build assets amid a lost year.

At the outset of spring training, Garrett Crochet was given the opportunity to do something he’s never done in the majors: work as a starting pitcher. The White Sox staff challenged him to be more efficient, to have more 15-pitch innings than 25-pitch innings, and he’s done what they’ve asked. The White Sox had no other obvious candidates for the honor of Opening Day starter, and Getz believed that if Crochet could excel as a starting pitcher, the left-hander might develop into a valuable piece of their roster — or on the trade market. He told Grifol, “F— it, let’s start Crochet.”

It was thrilling news to deliver to Crochet, a player whose confidence had wavered in the past, but it was also the first barometer reading of a serious problem: The White Sox’s pitcher in their first game of the season would be making his first career start. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only three non-expansion teams in the live ball era (since 1920) have debuted four new starters since the previous year in the first four games of a season, as the White Sox did with Crochet and journeymen Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen and Mike Soroka. The bullpen was also a problem area: the most dynamic talent, Michael Kopech, fought the yips at the end of the 2023 season, and the entire relief corps had been turned over since the previous Opening Day with veterans Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez leaving via trade or free agency in the offseason.

Crochet pitched great on Opening Day, allowing one run in six innings, but the White Sox lost 1-0 to Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. And then they kept losing — 7-6 in their second game against Detroit, 3-2 in their third. By Chicago’s fourth game, Chris Flexen was hammered in a 9-0 rout by the Atlanta Braves, and the White Sox fell to 0-4.

Meanwhile, a lineup already thin on big league talent was getting thinner. Eloy Jimenez, a top prospect acquired in 2017 and signed two years later to be a foundational piece of a previous rebuild, played three games before he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. On April 5, Luis Robert — in theory, the best player on the White Sox’s roster — suffered a hip flexor strain as he was running the bases; he’d miss the next two months. Yoan Moncada, the longest-tenured of the Chicago regulars, also suffered a hip injury. Little more than a week into the season, a third of the lineup was out, and the White Sox had won just one of their first nine games, with a run differential of minus-30.

They didn’t win a series for almost a month, a stretch that included a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, who outscored them 27-5 in a three-game set in mid-April. Several first-year Reds, who had considered signing with the White Sox, expressed confusion about their winter decisions.

“Oof,” one Cincinnati player said. “What happened to all their pitching?”


May 26

15-38

AFTER EIGHT WINS in the first two weeks of May, a brutal stretch awaited Chicago: series against the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers.

In the third game against the Orioles, with Crochet on the mound, the White Sox lost, again, to the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish. The team was 15-39, Grifol’s second season as manager had started badly, and he was pissed off. He praised Crochet to reporters, but said the rest of the team is “f—ing flat.” The words did not land well with a clubhouse of beleaguered players — it sounded to them as if Grifol was piling on blame, rather than sharing it — and some of them pushed back when speaking with reporters. “He’s going to feel that way, and obviously we’re going to have a different feeling,” catcher Korey Lee said. “He’s entitled to his own opinion, and we are also.”

Sheets said, “I’m not sure. I think we ran into a pretty good pitcher with pretty good stuff.”

“I mean, we were trying,” one White Sox player said later. “For better or worse, that was it, right there. … I think that could have been the beginning of the end for Pedro.”

Grifol had been hired by then-GM Rick Hahn and former club president Kenny Williams early in the 2022 offseason. Hahn and Williams’ hope was that Grifol, who was from Miami and bilingual, would connect with the team’s core of Latin American players, but the hire was a gamble: Grifol had an impressive résumé as a coach, including the previous three years as the Kansas City Royals bench coach, but had never managed in the big leagues.

And he was inheriting a splintered clubhouse. Liam Hendriks, then the team’s most prominent pitching star, is distinctly an extrovert — loud, friendly, accessible to the media, chatty. Three organizational sources say a rift had grown between Hendriks and some of the other veterans on the team, namely pitchers Kendall Graveman, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly.

In December 2022, Hendriks was diagnosed with cancer. He went through treatment in the spring of 2023 before making his way back to the team. In late May, the White Sox front office planned a welcome back news conference, and the team arranged for players to be in the room as Hendriks spoke with the media for the first time — an elementary show of support. Some veterans initially balked, and according to club sources, had to be talked into attending. The situation, one longtime White Sox staffer believed, was one of the worst things he had ever witnessed in professional sports.

The rifts went beyond the pitching staff, too. Former All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson was mired in a season-long slump while dealing with personal issues off the field and catcher Yasmani Grandal was described by one former teammate as someone who “tore people down instead of building them up.”

“It was as negative a place as I’ve seen anywhere,” said another club source.

Within a week after the White Sox traded Keynan Middleton to the Yankees during the 2023 season, the reliever spoke to ESPN about the White Sox’s culture. Asked where the void exists with the team, Middleton said: “Leadership in general. They say s— rolls downhill. I feel like some guys don’t want to speak up when they should have. It’s hard to police people when there are no rules. If guys are doing things that you think are wrong, who is it wrong to? You or them? It’s anyone’s judgment at that point.”

When some White Sox staffers read the words, they were furious, because they felt Middleton’s thoughts reflected a larger problem: With an inexperienced manager overseeing the clubhouse, the culture really belonged to the players, and they shared a large measure of responsibility for the problems.

At the 2023 trade deadline, other teams — aware of the dysfunction in the White Sox’s clubhouse — passed on opportunities to take on some of the veterans because of the ugliness of some of the emanating stories. One executive said of one of the pitchers the White Sox were trying to trade: “We’ve seen that act before.”

Grifol had a complicated clubhouse on his hands; he didn’t really do complicated. Some managers are practiced schmoozers, excellent politicians; Grifol is not, according to some peers. He is a hardcore baseball guy, strong in his beliefs, and expects players to be accountable. His preference, friends believe, would have been to focus on the day-to-day work, but instead, he felt compelled to tend to a fractured clubhouse.

At least one White Sox staffer said this took up a lot of Grifol’s energy. “When you get a first-time manager like that and veteran players, they will take advantage of him,” said the staffer. “They didn’t help him.”

Early in the 2024 season, with the White Sox losing so much again, Grifol’s situation looked untenable. The team was a mess in his first year as manager, and in his second year, he was working for a general manager who didn’t hire him. “He had no chance,” one organizational source said of Grifol.

His criticism after the loss to Baltimore didn’t help. The White Sox ended May in the midst of a 14-game losing streak — one of three double-digit skids the team would endure during the season — and entrenched their record pace.

Even the healthy players were struggling horrifically. Three players who Grifol was including in his lineup daily, given their stature within the roster — Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn and Sheets — ranked among the eight least productive players in the majors, according to FanGraphs, combining for minus-1.3 fWAR this season.

“I missed having healthy players,” Grifol told ESPN this week. “It’s not an excuse — that’s just the reality. I missed having Liam Hendriks and other really good players able to perform. It wasn’t the players’ fault. They just got hurt.”

Said a former White Sox player: “When things are going good, no one says anything. When things go bad, everyone starts pointing fingers.”


June 23

21-57

IN THE SEVENTH start of his career, Jonathan Cannon took the mound against the Tigers. His previous two outings had been strong — 8⅔ scoreless innings against Houston and seven one-run innings against Seattle — but on that day, it all fell apart quickly.

The Tigers, who’d scored just five runs over their previous six games, scored five in the first inning and four in the second. Cannon was pulled in the second inning. After the game, the 2022 third-round pick was asked about his outing: “Baseball is a cruel game, and sometimes it doesn’t go your way.”

Meanwhile, in the opposite dugout sat A.J. Hinch, an enduring symbol of what could have been for the White Sox — what many feel should have been. In October 2020, Hinch was in the last days of his year-long suspension for his role in the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal — and he was the first choice of then-GM Rick Hahn to take over as the White Sox manager. Hahn viewed Hinch as an ideal candidate: He had a championship pedigree, an excellent reputation for communication, and an advanced understanding in analytics honed during his time with the progressive Astros. For Hahn, Hinch would be the guy who was going to drive the White Sox forward and help the front office define for Reinsdorf where and how the organization was behind. The White Sox were on the upswing then, with a young, talented roster and coming off a wild-card appearance in 2020: an attractive job for a managerial candidate. It seemed such a perfect fit that friends of Hinch assumed that is where he would work in 2021.

Reinsdorf, however, wasn’t interested. He felt he had fired La Russa wrongly in 1986 and bore a debt to an old friend. Above all else, Reinsdorf — who declined to speak to ESPN for this story — is consistently steadfast to friends and employees. In his time as owner of the White Sox and Chicago Bulls, he has had a lifetime of battles with owners and others, but he trusts his people. “Fact is, he might be too trusting,” said one staffer. La Russa was hired without Hinch even going through a formal interview with the White Sox.

Players complained to their agents about the 76-year-old La Russa, feeling he was out of step with a much younger generation of players. Privately, they questioned a lot of his moves. Publicly, he was second-guessed by fans and media for on-field decisions. But La Russa was in his fourth decade as a manager, bearing a stature that helped sustain a general stability, and in La Russa’s first year in 2021, the White Sox won the AL Central with a 93-69 record. “To this day [Reinsdorf] will tell people hiring La Russa was the right move, especially after seeing how the team did after he left,” said one source.

La Russa was overcome by illness in his second season. When he left the team in August, the White Sox were 63-65. Disappointing, but not disastrous. The decision was made in the final days of the 2022 season that he wouldn’t return for 2023.

By then, Hinch’s Tigers were progressing; they finished in second place in the AL Central in 2023 and this year will end with their highest win total since 2016 and, likely, a wild-card spot. The Guardians and Royals have also improved, while the Twins remain consistently competitive. The AL Central is toughening.

The White Sox franchise, however, has moved in the other direction; the organization has fallen way behind, from top to bottom. After La Russa stepped down as manager, he was kept on as a consultant — and still had the ear of ownership.

Sources said that as Reinsdorf prepared to fire Hahn in August 2023, La Russa gave positive feedback about Getz, someone he’d gotten to know as the assistant GM of the White Sox, where he had worked since 2017.

A typical industry practice is to ask permission to speak to a range of candidates from other organizations — in some cases, division rivals, in an effort to glean a greater understanding of their information systems. Sometimes subterfuge is the only real reason for the interviews. But Reinsdorf wasn’t interested in that kind of learning.

He was presented the option of interviewing candidates outside the organization, and he declined. Getz was his guy, and nobody was going to change his mind. Getz was hired nine days after Williams and Hahn were dismissed.

“Jerry’s hands are still involved in the major decision-making,” one White Sox employee said. “I mean he’s the owner but whether La Russa was the right hire or not he didn’t let his baseball people make that call. It was laughable what he said [last year] … about letting his front office make decisions. Maybe in basketball, but not baseball.”

Getz, with his years of experience in the White Sox’s offices, is experienced in working with Reinsdorf — they discuss his moves, certainly, but Getz does not feel micromanaged, even as he immediately looked to implement foundational changes within the organization. Last fall, he hired one of the most progressive pitching minds in the sport, Brian Bannister, away from the San Francisco Giants, and installed Paul Janish, the former major league shortstop and Rice head coach, to lead the team’s player development.

This year, that work continued, even as Getz prepared for the daunting month ahead of him: The MLB draft and trade deadline were weeks away.

His focus was there, to the frustration of Grifol and some of his coaches, who believed Getz was not giving the big league team enough of his attention. They wanted to hear more from him and worried that the lack of communication was a sign of how he regards them.

At the All-Star break, Grifol held a team meeting, noting the team’s trajectory, their pace to set a new record for losses. No one in the organization wants that, he said, adding that this was a chance for many of them to play and shine in the big leagues — and he encouraged them to put in the work to make that happen. The White Sox lost their next game, extending their losing streak to five. And they continued to lose.


July 25

27-77

BY JULY, IT was a fait accompli that the White Sox would become one of the most prominent sellers before the July 30 trade deadline. There was no gradual rollout for Getz in his first summer. Instead, he had to consider dozens of possible trade combinations in a truncated timeline, and some of his peers with other teams wondered if he was ready, especially after some of his first trades.

The previous fall, he had traded Bummer, a coveted left-handed reliever, to the Braves for five players. The return stunned some rival evaluators, because they believed some of the players in the deal likely would’ve been non-tendered by the Braves. In truth, Getz was fully aware of the non-tender possibility — because Braves exec Alex Anthopoulos had told him so — and wanted the deal anyway, to ensure the arrival of Mike Soroka in the much-depleted rotation.

In the midst of the 2024 season, Getz and his staff had some of the best options in a depleted trade market: Erick Fedde, whom Getz signed to a savvy deal in the offseason after a year in Korea; Kopech, who struggled in the closer role but had 59 strikeouts in 43⅔ innings; and, most notably, Crochet, who had blossomed into a dominant starter. Getz was in constant communication with other teams, but he made the decision early: If no team met their asks, they’d keep the left-hander.

Five days before the deadline, Getz was eating breakfast when he got texts from a team asking him about tweets just posted that suggested Crochet would only pitch in the postseason if he got a contract extension — something Getz had not heard before from the player or his agent, Andrew Nacario.

The timing of the breaking news was awful — not because it affected interest, but because with little more than 100 hours remaining before the trade deadline, Getz knew front offices would try to use the contract situation as leverage to diminish the asking price. But contending teams kept making offers — the Dodgers, Phillies and Braves at the forefront. “The sincere teams remained sincere,” said one White Sox source, “and the teams that weren’t sincere — they were out.” Said a rival executive: “I don’t think [the contract demand] affected his value.”

The White Sox believed that the Dodgers had enough to make a deal without top catching prospect Dalton Rushing included, but that offer from L.A. never developed. The Phillies turned down the White Sox’s request for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter as part of the package. The Braves had lots of pitching to offer, but the White Sox preferred a deal for position players.

In the end, Getz traded a chunk of his roster: Fedde, Kopech and Tommy Pham as part of a three-team trade with the Cardinals and Dodgers, and shortstop Paul DeJong to the Royals. Getz decided he would keep Crochet for the rest of the regular season and into the winter. He called Reinsdorf to tell him, and Reinsdorf was nonplussed in his response.

In some other front offices, Getz’s choices were panned. Some evaluators believed he didn’t get enough in the Fedde-Kopech-Pham trade; others questioned how he could’ve let the moment pass without dealing Crochet. He had the best available starting pitcher in the trade market, with big-market teams interested, and critics believed Getz should have flipped Crochet for building-block prospects. They wondered what kind of counsel he was getting from Reinsdorf, and others. “Somebody needed to tell him, ‘Look, this is the time when you have to trade him,'” said a longtime front office type who has worked through many deadlines.

Some rival evaluators disagree with the criticism, and so do the White Sox. Getz thinks Crochet will have at least the same trade value this winter, when teams in need of an ace will have more time to weigh the choice between paying big dollars for free agents like Blake Snell or dealing prospects for Crochet. And now teams know for sure that Crochet can handle a starter’s workload over a full season.

Hours after the White Sox made the decision to hold Crochet, they lost their 16th straight game.


Aug. 8

28-88

AS SOON AS the trade deadline passed, Getz wanted to move on from his manager, according to sources familiar with his thinking. It was not a matter of if, but when. But with rumors swirling about Grifol’s immediate future, a meeting took place on July 31 between Reinsdorf, Getz, Grifol and La Russa. And then, for a week, in one of the stranger twists of the season, nothing happened.

On Aug. 6, a losing streak that began before the All-Star break finally ended, at an American League record 21 games, with a win over Oakland. “It was just really good to get this behind us. I thought we played a clean game today,” Grifol told reporters. “Any time you win it’s great. Any time you win when you lose 21 in a row it’s even better. I’m proud of these guys.”

Two days later, Getz called Grifol to tell him he was making a change. Third base coach Eddie Rodriguez, assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar and bench coach Charlie Montoyo — all of the White Sox’s Latino staffers — were also fired. Grifol is a lifelong friend of Tosar and knew Rodriguez from their days together in the Royals’ organization. Getz thought that while Montoyo held the title of bench coach, Grifol was mostly leaning on Rodriguez and Tosar.

Getz believed that to get the White Sox to a better place, these were the right staff moves to make in early August. But he knew the optics of the choices were less than ideal. Getz called Michael Hill, MLB’s senior vice president for on-field operations, to provide background for the decision. The league monitors the diversity of MLB coaching staffs and is expected to do so on the White Sox’s next hires.

The front office promoted first-year coach Grady Sizemore to interim manager, essentially taking on-the-field decisions out of the dugout and into the executive suite. Sizemore had expressed no desire to manage but was picked because players like him. Getz stated that he’d look outside the White Sox family for a permanent replacement, squashing any talk of a reunion with Ozzie Guillen, who provides television commentary on games, or popular former catcher A.J. Pierzynski.

A month later, with the White Sox closing in on the all-time record for losses, the typically reticent Reinsdorf issued a statement. “Going back to last year, we have made difficult decisions and changes to begin building a foundation for future success,” he said. “What has impressed me is how our players and staff have continued to work and bring a professional attitude to the ballpark each day despite a historically difficult season. No one is happy with the results, but I commend the continued effort.”

Weeks after Pham was traded, he reflected on his time as a White Sox. The 1962 Mets had players like Pham — established veterans near the end of their days as active players, scu as Gil Hodges and Don Zimmer, who became witnesses to history.

“Everything compounded on the White Sox this season with injuries and rebuilding,” Pham said. “Guys are being allowed to develop in the big leagues and that’s never been done. Ten years ago you weren’t allowed to develop in the big leagues.

“I think the White Sox problem isn’t just a White Sox problem. I think it’s a universal problem going on in MLB. We have teams that are developing players in the big leagues. We’ve never seen that. Add all the injuries and the Sox are where they are.”


Sept. 24

36-120

BY MID-SEPTEMBER, IT seemed a matter of when, not if, the White Sox would break the Mets’ record. A long road trip to the West Coast garnered a 3-6 record, and the White Sox returned home with 120 losses.

Much of Tuesday’s game played out like so many of the defeats that came before it. The White Sox hitters failed to score for the game’s first seven innings. The bullpen finally wilted, and the Angels took the lead, with “Sell the team!” chants raining down from the stands.

“I get the frustration,” Sizemore said. “They want to see wins and they want to see them now.”

Though Chicago’s rally then postponed the seemingly inevitable, there are five more games in the season; the White Sox could climb to as many as 125 losses. Their path from here is unclear — because of new collective bargaining rules, the White Sox can’t receive a draft lottery pick; even after the worst season in history, they’ll pick no higher than 10th in next year’s draft. There is no quick path back to respectability for a team in the third-largest market in MLB. Fans booing might be the norm for the foreseeable future.

Still, Getz and his staff are looking ahead: refining a process through which they will hire the next manager, among a wide-ranging field of candidates from around the industry. As he did with lengthy processes to hire Bannister and Janish, Getz’s goal is to objectively pick the person who best fits the White Sox and what they need moving forward. This week, Getz made another important hire, tapping longtime scout David Keller — who spent many years with the Mets — to oversee their international department.

In mid-September, Getz watched a recent interview of UConn basketball coach Dan Hurley, about a tense meeting with his predecessor, Jim Calhoun. Early in Hurley’s tenure, he had complained to Calhoun about work impediments; Calhoun tells Hurley to stop whining and do the job. Getz relates to this. And as the White Sox disaster reaches its conclusion, Getz feels … energized. The challenge — the opportunity — is now as immense as the failure.

Continue Reading

Sports

How much will Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber get paid this winter? MLB insiders predict their free agency

Published

on

By

How much will Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber get paid this winter? MLB insiders predict their free agency

We’ve collected projections for the most anticipated free agents of the last three offseasons: first it was Aaron Judge, then Shohei Ohtani, then Juan Soto (with an update in October).

While there isn’t a massive free agent expected to smash records this winter like Ohtani and Soto did, there are two players who are intriguing for different reasons and also happen to have the same first name: Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker.

From one point of view, Tucker has had a solid walk year, posting 4.7 WAR with his offensive numbers down just a tick from last year’s career year but underlying metrics close to his best seasons. On the other hand, Tucker had a really rough run in August, hitting .148/.233/.148 (16 wRC+) over 15 games (61 plate appearances) from Aug. 1 to Aug. 18. This led to him sitting out games Aug. 19 and 20. The Chicago Cubs right fielder has hit well since returning, but now he’s on the injured list with a calf strain. That said, he was tied for fifth in baseball in WAR at the end of June, and he remains in the top 20.

Schwarber’s season is less complicated. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has posted career bests in most offensive categories, including his 50 homers, 123 RBIs and 4.5 WAR. The only negatives for his outlook on free agency are that Schwarber will be 33 years old in March and has played only 13 games in the field over the last two seasons. Designated hitters well into their 30s haven’t fared well in free agency, but none of those had hit 50 homers in their walk year, so Schwarber is in uncharted territory.

How much might each of the Kyles get this winter? We polled 20 scouts, executives and agents to find out.

Kyle Tucker

How much could Tucker get?

Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.

Under $350 million (6): 11 years/$308 million, 9 years/$315 million (2x), 8 years/$320 million, 9 years/$340 million, 9 years/$342 million

$350-$399 million (4): 8 years/$352 million, 10 years/$375 million, 12 years/$375 million, 11 years/$380 million

$400-499 million (8): 10 years/$400 million, 11 years/$400 million, 11 years/$418 million, 10 years/$420 million (2x), 10 years/$425 million, 12 years/$425 million, 10 years/$450 million

At least $500 million (2): 10 years/$500 million, 12 years/$550 million

The average of all 20 projections is 10.1 years, $391.5 million, for a $38.8 million average annual value (AAV).

The median projection of those deals is $390 million.

Who are the closest comps?

Tucker’s consistent standout performance (five straight 4-5 fWAR seasons and five straight hitting performances 30% better than league average) makes it hard to find a recent free agent comparison. He’s 10th in baseball in WAR over the last five seasons.

Over the last four free agent classes, the $150M+ position players don’t have a great fit for a comp. Soto’s $765 million deal and Ohtani’s $700 million deal aren’t useful. Shortstops Willy Adames, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are positionally quite different, though Seager isn’t a terrible secondary comp. Freddie Freeman was three years older than Tucker as a free agent and Aaron Judge was two years older, while also coming off of an 11.1 WAR season with 62 homers, so neither seems that relevant. Kris Bryant was already trending down when he hit free agency, while Brandon Nimmo was trending up but had years of durability concerns.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million April extension with the Toronto Blue Jays is the comp that kept coming up with those we surveyed. Vlad’s extension kicks in next year for his age-27 season, while Tucker will be 29. It’s only two years, but it’s a very important two years in projecting the value in a long-term deal. Tucker has more baserunning and positional value, but he’s still a corner outfielder. Guerrero’s extension was signed outside of a competitive bidding situation, with the perception being that the Jays paid a little more than the market would bear to lock up their franchise player after a last-place American League East finish last season and with fellow core player Bo Bichette still unsigned.

Who are Tucker’s potential suitors?

There was little confidence from those surveyed (none of whom work for the Cubs) about the Cubs winning a bidding war for Tucker. The Los Angeles Dodgers, longtime fans of Tucker, were mentioned by a number of industry insiders. We didn’t ask about a projected team, so the Dodgers coming up often seems to be indicative of a feeling in the industry that they’re the team to beat.

Putting all of those pieces together, you can see why a contingent of the industry thinks Tucker will land somewhere around Guerrero’s extension, some think he’ll end up closer to $300 million, but most have him around $400 million, give or take, which is also where Jeff Passan’s sources led him.

Kyle Schwarber

How much could Schwarber get?

Here are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.

Under $100 million (2): 4 years/$72 million, 3 years/$90 million

$100-$125 million (11): 3 years/$100 million, 4 years/$100 million, 4 years/$110 million (2x), 4 years/$112 million (3x), 5 years/$118 million, 4 years/$120 million (2x), 3 years/$125 million

$126-180 million (5): 4 years/$140 million, 6 years/$150 million, 4 years/$160 million, 5 years/$160 million, 4 years/$180 million

At least $200 million (2): 6 years.$200 million, 7 years/$245 million

The average of all 20 projections is 4.3 years, $131.8 million, for a $30.7 million average annual value (AAV).

The median projection of those deals is $119 million.

Who are the closest comps?

A handful of comps come up for Schwarber:

J.D. Martinez: Five years, $110 million going into his age-30 season in 2018 (45 HRs, 4.3 WAR walk year)

Paul Goldschmidt: Five years, $130 million going into his age-32 season in 2020 (33 HRs, 4.6 WAR in walk year)

Freeman: Six years, $162 million going into his age-32 season in 2022 (31 HRs, 4.7 WAR in walk year)

The comp math would say Schwarber should get one year less than the shortest deal above due to his age (thus, four years) and land in the $25-30 million average annual value (AAV) area, which is right where those surveyed ended up.

Who are Schwarber’s potential suitors?

Conversely to the Tucker/Cubs situation, a lot of those surveyed think there’s a strong chance the Phillies will act quickly after the season ends to bring Schwarber back. Either way, he seems to be a target for a contending team looking to beef up the middle of its lineup in the short term, and hopefully not have an albatross on its ledger at the end of the deal.

All of those teams would be conscious of luxury tax numbers, and a rival agent brought up an interesting wrinkle he’s expecting to see: Schwarber will get that fifth year, for a little added money, to get the AAV down.

A number of teams should be interested at that low-nine-figure area, as the predictions suggest, but there could eventually be a landing spot closer to $150 million with enough competitive bidding. That said, some teams simply can’t stomach that kind of money for an older DH.

Continue Reading

Sports

MLB playoff tracker: Who can clinch postseason spot next, current bracket and more

Published

on

By

MLB playoff tracker: Who can clinch postseason spot next, current bracket and more

A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.

The Detroit Tigers are pretty much a postseason lock with a whopping lead in the AL Central, and the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are comfortably sitting atop their respective divisions.

Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the first team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?

We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.

Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings


Who can clinch a playoff spot next?

The Brewers’ magic number is two, which means they could clinch a playoff spot in the coming days.

The Tigers, Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres all have at least a 98% chance of making the postseason.


What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?

American League

Wild-card round: (6) Mariners at (3) Astros, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees

ALDS: Mariners/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays

National League

Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs

NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers


Breaking down the AL race

The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And, in what seems to be a yearly September occurrence, the Houston Astros are attempting to separate themselves from the Seattle Mariners in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, a Seattle swoon has allowed the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians to remain within striking distance for the final wild-card spot.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:


Breaking down the NL race

A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets trying to keep a comfortable lead over the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot. The Phillies and Brewers are seemingly cruising to division titles, but there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:


Game of the day

Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:


Playoff schedule

Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium

Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*

Division series
Best of five

ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*

NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*

League championship series
Best of seven

ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*

NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*

World Series
Best of seven

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*

* If necessary

Continue Reading

Sports

Buehler, sick of robot umps, eager for Phils debut

Published

on

By

Buehler, sick of robot umps, eager for Phils debut

Walker Buehler can’t wait to return to the major leagues Friday, when he’ll take the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies for the first game of a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals.

Among the main reasons for Buehler’s excitement: He hated the automated ball-strike system used in the minors and was likely to be considered by MLB for regular-season use.

“I think it’s inaccurate,” said Buehler, an eight-year veteran and two-time All-Star. “I think in most of the stadiums, it’s not even actually on the plate. I think it shifts certain directions in certain ballparks. I think human element is a huge part of this game. I think starting pitchers that have pitched for a long time deserve certain parts of the plate that other guys don’t get.”

He added: “I think the punishment for challenging something that’s clearly a strike is not big enough. I could kind of go on. I think the ABS system in general is a very good idea. I don’t think we have any idea where to put it on the plate. I don’t think we have any idea how to function it correctly in terms of angles at ballparks. I don’t think the umpires unions are going to be very happy about it.”

Buehler, who helped the Los Angeles Dodgers to World Series titles in 2020 and 2024, was released by the Boston Red Sox in August after going 7-7 with a 5.45 ERA in 23 games, 22 of which were starts. He was quickly signed by the National League East-leading Phillies, who had an opening in their rotation after ace Zack Wheeler was recently lost for the season — and possibly longer — because of thoracic outlet syndrome.

Buehler thinks he can help Philadelphia as it chases its first World Series title since 2008.

“They’re deep and talented and I hope I can contribute in some way,” Buehler said ahead of Thursday’s game against the New York Mets. “Kind of get back on my feet a little bit and hopefully capture a good month, month-and-a-half here and help us win this thing.”

The Phillies will move to a six-man rotation down the stretch.

Buehler will be eligible to pitch in the postseason and was assigned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks in three innings in his lone start. He struck out five and threw 47 of 78 pitches for strikes.

Buehler signed a one-year, $21.05 million deal last offseason with the Red Sox and was expected to be a key member of their rotation. But he went on the injured list early in the season with a shoulder injury and never found his top form.

Boston demoted the 6-foot-2, 185-pounder from its rotation following his start Aug. 19. He made one appearance for the Red Sox out of the bullpen, allowing two runs in 2⅓ innings against the Yankees on Aug. 24. He was released to make room for top prospect Payton Tolle.

One of Buehler’s better outings this season came against the Phillies in Philadelphia on July 21 when he allowed one earned run on six hits in seven innings while striking out four and walking one.

Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said that team officials, including manager Rob Thomson, had a good Zoom conversation with Buehler and his representatives when he was signed. The discussion included a back-and-forth with pitching coach Caleb Cotham in which the two connected.

“I think a lot of the times the DFA process over the phone is between the agent and one guy in the org,” Buehler said. “For us to have a phone call at all, and for those guys to take time out of their day to be on it, was huge. Kind of a confidence boost for me, or whatever you might call it.”

Buehler struggled last year coming off a second Tommy John surgery but pitched a perfect ninth in the Series clincher two days after pitching five shutout innings as the starter in Game 3.

“This rehab, as weird as it sounds being two years healthy on it, it takes time,” Buehler said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Continue Reading

Trending