MLB playoff preview: World Series odds, keys to success and predicted date of doom for all 12 teams
The 2024 MLB playoffs are here!
Starting with this week’s wild-card series (beginning Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. ET on ABC), it’s sure to be another thrilling October of postseason baseball. We’ve got you covered with everything you need to know, from the first pitch of the playoffs to the final out of the World Series.
After the regular season ended with no 100-win team for the first time in a decade, this October appears wide open. Will Shohei Ohtani‘s first playoff appearance end in a World Series title for the Los Angeles Dodgers? Will the Philadelphia Phillies power through the playoffs? Or will we see another unexpected run through the National League? Will the New York Yankees go from the American League’s No. 1 seed to the World Series — or will the Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles or one of the AL Central surprise teams get in their way?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team’s last game and a name to watch for all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Passan’s World Series pick | Insider playoff intel | Bracket | ESPN BET: Odds & more
Jump to a team:
NYY | CLE | HOU | BAL | KC | DET
LAD | PHI | MIL | SD | ATL | NYM
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-66 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Royals/Orioles (62% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 19.4% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Let’s not get too cute here: It has to be Aaron Judge or Juan Soto, since they’ve carried the Yankees all season. It’s hard to imagine New York winning without those two producing. Judge hasn’t been great in his postseason career (.211 average, .772 OPS); Soto was terrific as a 20-year-old for the Nationals in 2019 (especially in the World Series) but didn’t do much for the Padres in 2022. Let’s go with Judge, since he’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities if Soto is getting on base in front of him. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … They don’t play sound, fundamental baseball. The Yankees have premier talent highlighted by three superstars: Judge, Soto and Gerrit Cole. They can pitch and they can really hit. But they also have a propensity to get sloppy on defense, depend too much on the home run and make puzzling mistakes on the basepaths — they rank last in the majors in baserunning, according to FanGraphs. Every out and every run counts that much more in the postseason. An ability to give outs away and an inability to manufacture runs against elite pitching can haunt even the most talented teams in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The love affair between Soto and the greater New York City metropolis prolonged through the summer and will spill into the fall. Presumptions that Soto and his massive persona would be an ideal fit for the outsized stakes of baseball in the Bronx have been validated by a dominant season overshadowed only by that of his own teammate. But as Judge can attest, Yankees legends are made exclusively in October. And though his performance in prior postseason stints with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres has been spotty, nobody likes the spotlight more than Juan José Soto. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Even if the Yankees aren’t your cup of tea, there is no denying that dynamic duos such as Judge and Soto are a historical rarity. According to Baseball Reference’s batting runs above average metric, the five highest single-season totals for teammates have been four Lou Gehrig-Babe Ruth seasons, and the 2024 tandem of Soto and Judge. More than a simple stacking of two Hall of Fame-level hitters, there is something about the back-to-back pairing of them in the nightly Yankees lineup that is somehow even greater than the considerable sum of their parts. With Soto reaching free agency whenever New York’s postseason run ends, there is no guarantee we’ll see this again. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 92-69 | AL Central champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers/Astros (51.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 9.8% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Can we just pick the entire bullpen? No? Four relievers have won a World Series MVP (Larry Sherry, Rollie Fingers, John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera) so don’t rule out Emmanuel Clase. Indeed, while Jose Ramirez is the obvious choice, his game hasn’t translated to the postseason, with just two home runs in 124 at-bats. Let’s go with Clase; if Cleveland wins, it’s probably because he gets four World Series saves. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The starting rotation isn’t good enough. Cleveland posted the best bullpen ERA in baseball by a substantial margin. Clase has been the best closer in the majors. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin might be the sport’s stoutest bridge to the ninth inning. The rotation is another matter. No. 1 starter Shane Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery after two starts. Triston McKenzie, two years removed from a breakout season, performed so poorly he was sent to Triple-A in June and hasn’t returned to the majors. Without them, Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA in 31 starts) emerged as the top starter for a rotation that finished tied for 23rd in ERA and 24th innings pitched. The Guardians will need to piece together the pitching to make a title run. But too much reliance on the bullpen might be unsustainable. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Guardians acquired Lane Thomas before the trade deadline hoping he would fortify an offense in perpetual need of production. August was brutal, but Thomas showed what he’s capable of amid a torrid month of September. He has been hitting mostly behind Josh Naylor, but also in front of Ramirez at times. His presence will be critical in October. The Guardians finished in the middle of the pack in OPS and runs per game this season. They need someone besides Ramirez, Naylor and Steven Kwan to produce consistently. They need the Lane Thomas who provided 28 home runs and a .783 OPS for last year’s Washington Nationals. He might have tapped back into that. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: 1948. That’s when Lou Boudreau, Larry Doby, Satchel Paige, Bob Feller & Co. led Cleveland to the World Series. Good times. Harry Truman was president. Jack Kerouac was gallivanting around the country with Neal Cassady. Don Draper was still living as Dick Whitman, years away from landing on Madison Avenue. The franchise has not won it all since then, giving it the longest active title drought in baseball. This team, with an offense that has contact, athleticism and just enough power, and armed with the sport’s best bullpen, is built to quench that thirst. To do so, the Guardians will have to topple some superstars — Judge, Ohtani among the possibilities — which would make it that much sweeter to watch. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 88-73 | AL West champs
Wild-card opponent: Tigers (65.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 8.1% | ESPN BET odds: +800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 12
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Jeremy Pena was the MVP when the Astros won it all in 2022, as Yordan Álvarez hit just .130 in that World Series. Alvarez did hit the decisive home run in Game 6, however, and he has generally been a force in his postseason career (.949 OPS). After a slow start in April and May, he has been crushing it since June. As long as he can overcome his late-season knee injury, he’s the pick here. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Álvarez doesn’t return from his knee sprain healthy enough to supply his usual production — if he returns at all. Don’t let their final record fool you: The Astros, even without Álvarez, might be the team to beat in the American League. After starting 15-25, they finished the season a league-best 73-48. They boast five starting pitchers peaking at the right time (and that doesn’t include the struggling Justin Verlander). They have a top-tier bullpen. Their offense is peppered with proven postseason performers. But Álvarez is their most frightening hitter. The star slugger led the team in batting average (.308), home runs (35), RBI (86), and fWAR (5.2). His 168 wRC+ tied for fourth in the majors among qualified players. And he has been a terror for opposing pitchers in October, batting .295 with 12 home runs and a .949 OPS in 58 career postseason games. The Astros’ pitching might be good enough to take them to their eighth straight ALCS. But a healthy Álvarez could be the difference. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Astros signed Ronel Blanco for $5,000 as a 22-year-old out of the Dominican eight years ago. They placed him in their Opening Day rotation as a placeholder because the rest of the staff was in flux. Then they watched him throw a no-hitter on the first day of April and anchor a staff that was decimated by injuries for most of the ensuing six months. Now Blanco will venture into October as a key player for an Astros team hoping to extend its run of consecutive ALCS appearances to eight, be it as a starter or as a reliever. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Astros give us something we can count on. Sure, we might not always love the way they go about it, but Houston is as constant as death, taxes and “The Simpsons.” The Astros are bidding to reach the LCS round for an eighth straight year, making them a 21st-century version of the old Yankees dynasty. Teams just aren’t supposed to sustain success like this, not in the 2020s. Through it all, Houston has maintained its air of swagger and inevitability. If you admire consistency, you have to admire the Astros, and our time to appreciate this run might finally be running out. Well, maybe. —Doolittle
1:48
What will be the keys to the Tigers-Astros wild-card series?
Jeff Passan, Buster Olney and Tim Kurkjian analyze the pitching in the Tigers’ wild-card matchup against the Astros.
No. 4 seed | 91-71 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Royals (59.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 10
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Anthony Santander has had a quiet 44-homer season, that’s for sure. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, he’s not a strikeout-prone hacker up there: He actually whiffs less often than teammate Gunnar Henderson. The switch-hitter has also been effective from both sides of the plate. That could translate nicely in October, especially if he locks in like he did in June and July, when he slugged 22 home runs with a .973 OPS. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The offense doesn’t snap out of its late-season funk. The Orioles’ pitching staff has significant question marks. Injuries have pillaged the starting rotation. The bullpen has been in disarray. That means the offense needs to wake up after ranking 20th in runs scored since Aug. 1. Recent reinforcements should help, but it starts with Adley Rutschman. While Henderson should finish in the top five in AL MVP voting and Santander cracked the fifth-most home runs ever for a switch-hitter, Rutschman slogged through a dismal second half. While Henderson should finish in the top five in AL MVP voting and Santander cracked the fifth-most home runs ever for a switch-hitter, Rutschman slogged through a dismal second half. The catcher was batting .300 with 15 home runs and an .830 OPS in 348 plate appearances through June 28, a start good enough to warrant his second straight All-Star nod. After that, he batted .189 with four home runs and a .559 OPS in 290 plate appearances for the remainder of the regular season. He remained in the 2-hole most nights despite the struggles. The Orioles won’t play deep into October if he doesn’t reverse course. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Any hopes that Grayson Rodriguez might return before season’s end were dashed last week, when the Orioles announced he would be shut down with the right lat/teres strain that had kept him out since early August. Rodriguez is the fourth Orioles starter who has been ruled out for 2024, along with Kyle Brash, John Means and Tyler Wells, all of whom underwent surgery to repair damaged ulnar collateral ligaments. So, as if there were ever any doubt, it’s Corbin Burnes‘ time to shine. The 29-year-old right-hander has been everything the Orioles could have hoped for since coming over from the Milwaukee Brewers via trade on the first day of February. Now he’ll look to carry a beleaguered starting rotation in October. His performance will have as direct an impact on Baltimore’s chances as anyone’s. It’ll also go a long way toward determining the type of contract he gets in free agency. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: There has never been a World Series game played at Camden Yards. This needs to change. This is the 33rd season for one of baseball’s best venues, and so far, its World Series game count is zilch. The only Series-less ballpark with more quiet late Octobers was the Astrodome, which never hosted a Fall Classic in 35 years. Camden Yards is one of the sport’s crown jewels, once at the vanguard of one of baseball’s golden ages of stadium construction, built long before the current model of parks serving as anchors for real estate developments even more than as places for baseball to happen. We need overhead shots of this park with World Series-level media production and frenzy. Also, the Orioles haven’t won a championship in a long time. –– Doolittle
1:44
Passan: ‘The future is now’ in Royals-Orioles matchup
The “Baseball Tonight” crew marvels at the superstar shortstop showdown between Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson when the Royals and Orioles face off.
No. 5 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Orioles (40.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.3% | ESPN BET odds: +2500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Bobby Witt Jr. would be the apparent choice, although he slowed down a bit in September after his ridiculously high level of play throughout the summer and opponents might force others in the lineup to beat them. Let’s go with Salvador Perez, the sentimental pick here. He had a nice postseason the last time the Royals were in it back in 2015, slugging .517 with four home runs for the World Series champions. He’s a better hitter now than he was then (although nobody chases more than Perez), and he won’t be catching every game this time either. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The starting pitching doesn’t mask the bullpen’s shortcomings. The Royals (barely) completed their remarkable 30-win year-to-year turnaround behind their elite starting pitching, which finished second in baseball in both ERA and innings pitched. The bullpen is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23st in ERA and near the bottom in win probability added. The Royals, who enter the playoffs without a designated closer, tried bolstering the bullpen by acquiring Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, two right-handers with high strikeout rates, before the trade deadline. Erceg was effective in a few roles, including closer, but Harvey was placed on the injured list after six appearances with Kansas City and won’t pitch again in 2024. Wild-card teams have made World Series runs in recent years with shallow bullpens by aggressively deploying starting pitchers. That’s a possibility for Kansas City. But at least a few relievers will need to step up. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Don’t forget how this stirring Royals season began: Witt, their homegrown superstar, signed a massive contract extension that officially made him the face of their franchise. Then he went out and continued to play excellent shortstop defense, mash a bunch of homers, run like his hair was on fire and put together an age-24 season that would have been worthy of an MVP if not for the exploits of Aaron Judge. Now we’ll all have the joy of watching one of baseball’s budding superstars perform on its grandest stage. The Royals will probably go as Witt goes, especially if Vinnie Pasquantino can’t make it back from his broken thumb. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: What’s your favorite type of fairy tale? Rags to riches? Ugliness transforms to beauty? The hero emerges to save the day? The Royals have it all. Witt’s historic season has been the face of the Royals’ remarkable turnaround in 2024, but there is so much more to Kansas City’s stunning rise. How about old-school starting pitching? How about top defenders all over the field? The Royals aren’t just a great story — they’re really fun to watch. Beyond all that, it’s easy for bad teams to hide behind their badness as a reason to not invest in the roster. Certainly, that has happened in Kansas City in the past, but not this time. Trying isn’t the whole story, but it is an unavoidable first step. If they keep winning, this lesson becomes that much more abject. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Astros (34.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.7% | ESPN BET odds: +3000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Somebody who steps up to carry the offense. Parker Meadows was so bad early on (.131 average in 35 games) that the Tigers sent him back down to the minors. After being called back up in August, he put up an OPS over .800 the final two months and cut his strikeout rate from 35% to 20%. Throw in some excellent defense in center field (88th percentage in outs above average) and he has a chance to create big plays on both sides of the ball. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Tarik Skubal runs out of gas. The Tigers mounted their incredible run to a playoff spot behind the best second-half ERA in baseball. Skubal, the overwhelming AL Cy Young favorite, fronted the charge with dominance every five days. The left-hander became the seventh pitcher since 2000 to win a league’s pitching Triple Crown, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. Skubal logged at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts, which allowed manager A.J. Hinch to regularly increase bullpen usage on days Skubal didn’t pitch — especially after Jack Flaherty was traded at the deadline. No other Tigers pitcher logged more than 112 1/3 innings this season. For the formula to work in October, Skubal must remain a workhorse. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Spencer Torkelson struggled throughout the year and Colt Keith was up and down, but two other promising young Tigers position players have blossomed this season: Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene, the fifth overall pick in 2019, made the All-Star team and gave the offense some much-needed pop. Carpenter, a steal in the 19th round of the same draft, surged through April and May, missed the next two-plus months with a back injury and then picked up right where he left off. Both were red hot in September. Both must continue to be in order to support the Tigers’ pitching staff. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s face it: You don’t have any idea what this team is doing in an October bracket. To call the Tigers a Cinderella team is too easy; Detroit’s rise has been flat-out shocking, and if you say you saw it coming, you are either fibbing or your name is Nostradamus. In five weeks, the Tigers improved their playoff probability from 1% to 100%. That just doesn’t happen. If Detroit gets walloped in the wild-card round, maybe they’re just another team that got hot long enough to squeeze into a bloated playoff structure. But wouldn’t it be more fun if they kept this going? — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 95-64 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Braves/Padres (57.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 17.3% | ESPN BET odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … If you want the storybook ending to the 2024 playoffs, it will be Shohei Ohtani — playing in his first postseason. But let’s go with Freddie Freeman, who seems to have the style of hitting that works well in October, the right combination of discipline, contact and power. He’s a career .285 hitter in the postseason with an OPS over .900 and got a hit in all six World Series games for the Braves in 2021. Ohtani and Mookie Betts will get the spotlight, but Freeman — as long as his late-season ankle injury isn’t serious — can put the Dodgers over the top. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Their superstars don’t produce. The number of injuries to the Dodgers’ starting rotation is alarming. But the rotation was also a concern last year and it ultimately wasn’t the reason they were stunned by the Diamondbacks in a three-game NLDS sweep. Los Angeles gave up four runs in each of the final two games. The Dodgers scored two. A year earlier, the Dodgers combined to score 12 runs in a four-game NLDS loss to the Padres. Betts is 2-for-25 over the past two postseasons. Freeman went 1-for-10 last year. Ohtani just recorded one of the most impressive seasons in history and will win NL MVP, but he has never played in the MLB postseason. The Dodgers aren’t going anywhere if their stars go silent. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ohtani played the 866th game of his career on the night of Sept. 19, at that point the most among active players who had yet to appear in baseball’s postseason. He proceeded to — as you’ve probably heard by now — put together one of the greatest single-game performances ever while on his way to starting the 50/50 club and leading the Dodgers to a playoff clinch. While he languished in Anaheim over these past six years, fans all over the world longed to see Ohtani play meaningful games on baseball’s grandest stage. And if the 2023 World Baseball Classic was any indication for what that might feel like, they’re in for quite a ride. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s see if we can get through this without mentioning Ohtani. (Oops!) Well, let’s just call it historical validation. The Dodgers, since 2013, have sustained a high level of success that has rarely been replicated in baseball annals. For all of that dominance, they have ended just one season with a win and that title — 2020 — is always going to have a “yeah, but …” attached to it. The Dodgers have been one of the game’s great dynasties, but they probably need a championship in a normal season for people to remember them as such. –– Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 95-67 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Mets/Brewers (60.9% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 19.2% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Starting pitchers rarely win World Series MVP honors these days — only Stephen Strasburg in 2019, Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Cole Hamels in 2008 have won in the past 20 years — but Wheeler would be the best bet to do it this postseason. He has been great for a long time and just had his best regular season. He has performed well the past two postseasons (2.42 ERA). He’s efficient enough to pitch deep enough into games to impress the voters. Just don’t expect any complete games (Johnny Cueto threw the last in the World Series in 2015). — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Rust trumps rest. OK, so that can’t really be a reason. Or can it? The Phillies are as well rounded as any team in baseball. They have a top-flight starting rotation, bullpen and offense. They boast a veteran roster that has experienced it all. This team is better than the Philly teams that advanced to the World Series in 2022 and fell one game short of returning in 2023. Both times the Phillies were a wild-card entrant, and both times they toppled the mighty Braves, the NL East champs, in the NLDS. This time, the Phillies will benefit from (or be hindered by?) a bye to the NLDS after winning their first division title since 2011. They will not roll from the regular season straight into October madness. Will that matter? It’s a debate waged every year. Maybe it will for the Phillies. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: What might separate this Phillies team from other great ones of recent years is the depth of the pitching staff, with five members making the 2024 All-Star team. Nobody embodies that better than Cristopher Sanchez, the 27-year-old right-hander who has shown he can hold up over a full season. Sanchez, who made just one brief start in last year’s postseason, has been mostly dominant since the middle of August. He has been especially good at home, making him a logical candidate to start as early as Game 2 of the division series. Regardless of the venue, he and Ranger Suarez will have to step up behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola when the lights get brightest. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Bryce Harper, full stop. OK, Harper is a polarizing player to some, for reasons that aren’t readily apparent. Still, he’s a great, great player, a future Hall of Famer who goes about things the right way, and greatness is always worth appreciating. Harper has excellent career postseason numbers, especially for the Phillies portion of his career, but he is stuck on zero rings. The Phillies have a lot of terrific players who play hard looking for their first title, but it’s Harper more than anyone who needs a ring to fill out his impeccable résumé. — Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Mets (56.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.6% | ESPN BET odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Willy Adames led the Brewers in home runs and RBIs and tied Ken Griffey Jr.’s major league record with 13 three-run home runs in one season. For the season, he hit .293 with a 1.065 OPS with runners in scoring position. For the Brewers to win, Adames must continue his clutch hitting with men on base. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The bullpen finally falters. The Brewers’ elite relief corps improved as the season went along. The group’s 3.11 ERA for the season was second in baseball — and its 2.70 ERA since Aug. 1 was even better. The strong finish correlates with Devin Williams‘ participation. The closer registered a 1.25 ERA and converted 14 of 15 save chances after making his season debut July 28. He allowed runs in two of his 22 appearances — and didn’t allow any over his last 13 innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starters logged the fifth-fewest innings in baseball while recording the 17th-best ERA. Veteran right-hander Freddy Peralta has been steady. Rookie right-hander Tobias Myers was a revelation. But starting pitching was never going to be the Brewers’ strength after losing Brandon Woodruff for the season and trading Corbin Burnes in February. In short, Milwaukee’s playoff run will be abbreviated if Williams and the rest of the crew don’t continue pitching well. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Brewers gave Jackson Chourio an eight-year, $82 million contract in December, before he had even set foot in the major leagues. They put the 20-year-old outfielder on their Opening Day roster, watched him struggle through the first two months and never sent him down. Then he started to show why he merited such unwavering trust at such a young age. He took control of his at-bats, learned how to quiet his surroundings in pressure situations, displayed versatility with his speed and defense, and put together a historic season in his own right. Chourio became the first player to record 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases before his 21st birthday, leading a Brewers offense that has been among the sport’s best despite not boasting many big names. With Christian Yelich out, the pressure will be largely on Chourio to produce in October. The Brewers believe he’ll be up for it. They always have. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Why *shouldn’t* you root for the Brewers, especially if your favorite team isn’t in the hunt? Milwaukee just wins, year in, year out, even as it transitions front office leaders, managers and, especially, the players in the clubhouse. This kind of sustained efficiency warrants attention. Beyond that, the Brewers have transitioned into something different than they were even a year ago. Their lineup is now driven by the most athletic position group in the majors. The pitching staff is no longer reliant on a rotation big three and instead features a made-for-October roster of bullpen depth and versatility. On top of all that, a career baseball guy, Pat Murphy, is leading the way in his first full shot at the big chair. You got to root for Murph. — Doolittle
San Diego Padres
No. 4 seed | 93-69 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Braves (54.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.7% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Manny Machado got off to a slow start at the plate as he recovered from offseason elbow surgery (hitting .241 with five home runs through May). As the offense surged in the second half, however, Machado crushed it, averaging nearly an RBI per game. He hasn’t been great in the postseason — .221 average with a .274 OBP in 41 games — so maybe he’s due for a big October. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Robert Suárez‘s recent struggles bleed into the postseason. The Padres arguably had the best bullpen in baseball once they acquired Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. But Suárez hasn’t played his part of dominant closer over the final two months. Suárez, an All-Star, had a 1.42 ERA, .517 OPS against, and 24 saves in 27 chances across 44 appearances through Aug. 7. Over his next 20 outings, he posted a 5.66 ERA with a .752 OPS against and three blown saves in 15 save opportunities. He probably would’ve had another blown save if Miguel Rojas hadn’t grounded into a game-ending triple play with Shohei Ohtani on deck on Sept. 24. It’s been choppy for Suárez, but the Padres have stuck with him in the ninth inning. The leash could be shorter in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Padres had the audacity to take a 20-year-old lifetime shortstop who hadn’t played above Double-A, tell him to learn center field and ask him to help make up for the loss of Juan Soto. And Jackson Merrill has had the audacity to do more than even the most optimistic of folks could have expected from him. Merrill, now 21, has played an elite center field and has been an even better hitter, providing power and speed and a knack for coming through in clutch situations — an element that famously eluded last season’s group. He might win the Rookie of the Year despite Paul Skenes‘ transformative season in Pittsburgh. But first, he’ll star in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Maybe it’s hard to watch a game and root for an executive, but when it comes to assertive roster-building, no one does it with more alacrity than A.J. Preller. No matter where the Padres are or what they have to spend, he pursues titles with the zeal of a Swiftie on the trail of a beaded bracelet. This year’s team was built for this moment, especially when it comes to the powerhouse collection of closer-level relievers Preller has collected during his manic searches of the transaction market. The Padres are one of the five MLB teams that have never won a World Series. Thanks to Preller, they might be better positioned to exit that list than ever before. — Doolittle
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
Wild card opponent: Padres (45.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | ESPN Bet odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Hey, if Corey Seager can win two World Series MVP trophies (with the Dodgers in 2020 and last season with the Rangers), why not Jorge Soler? He won with the Braves in 2021 when he hit three home runs — all in Atlanta victories, including the go-ahead three-run homer in the clincher. Now back with the Braves after a deadline trade with the Giants, Soler is swinging the bat well — just like he did in 2021 when the Braves got him from the Royals. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The top half of the lineup doesn’t produce. The Braves’ offense is still relatively deep for a group that lost Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley are out for the season. Marcell Ozuna had a career year and should finish in the top five in NL MVP voting. Michael Harris II batted .291 with 11 home runs and an .846 OPS in 41 games after missing two months with a strained hamstring. Ozzie Albies returned from the injured list in late September. Matt Olson looked like his old self in August and September after a dreadful first four months. Jorge Soler, the Braves’ 2021 World Series MVP, rejoined the team at the trade deadline to crack nine home runs in 44 games. Those five hitters must produce enough to complement one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. If they do, Atlanta could make a run reminiscent of 2021. If not, it could mean an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Braves’ pitching plans were dealt a major blow on Monday, when it was revealed that Chris Sale, the likely NL Cy Young winner, is dealing with back spasms and will be unavailable in the upcoming wild-card round. Max Fried‘s importance has become even greater now. The last time Fried took the mound, he twirled 8 2/3 shutout innings against the resurgent Royals on Friday. He now lines up to pitch on normal rest in Game 2 of the wild-card series. Fried, a free agent at season’s end, was at his best down the stretch, posting a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts. Given how taxed their staff is at this point, the Braves desperately need more of that from their longtime ace. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: If you don’t think teams should use injuries as an excuse for not winning, then the Braves are your club. Of course, Atlanta already proved this in 2021 when they won the World Series even though Acuna was on the shelf with a knee injury. Flash forward to now, and the Braves can make it happen again. Only this time, in addition to Acuna being out, Atlanta enters the playoffs without preseason Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider and All-Star third baseman Riley. If the Braves can win with that much star power on the IL, truly there are no more excuses for anybody else. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Brewers (43.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.1% | ESPN BET odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Pete Alonso is heading to free agency, and the fan favorite belongs in the Big Apple for his entire career. What better way to ensure a return to the Mets than winning World Series MVP honors? It was an up-and-down regular season for him, but he’s certainly capable of bashing some big home runs hitting in the middle of a Mets lineup that was second in the majors in runs scored since June 12. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Francisco Lindor struggles to play through back pain. Lindor was Ohtani’s closest competition for NL MVP until his back flared up on Sept. 13. He played just one inning over the next 13 days before returning to the Mets’ lineup Friday. Neither Lindor nor the Mets have disclosed a diagnosis, but Lindor said testing showed “no structural damage” and he received a facet injection two Thursdays ago to expedite the healing process. The Mets went 6-6 without him to stay afloat, but October will be different. Lindor is the team’s heartbeat. He’s their leadoff hitter, shortstop, and clubhouse leader. He does the three jobs at an elite level. Winning playoff series without a healthy Lindor would be a tall task. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: If the Mets are going to make a surprisingly deep run in October, it’s going to take a lot of work from their pitching staff. The weather conditions that prompted a doubleheader in what was supposed to be an off-day on Monday guaranteed that. And nobody will be more important than Sean Manaea, who was roughed up in a key start against the Brewers on Friday but has nonetheless experienced experienced something of a renaissance. After back-to-back years with bloated ERAs in San Diego and San Francisco, Manaea went back to featuring his sinker instead of his four-seamer and has been perhaps the most astute addition in David Stearns’ first year atop baseball operations. Manaea seems all but certain to opt out of his two-year contract at season’s end. Before then, the 32-year-old left-hander will help lead a Mets rotation that might not get Kodai Senga back. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Sustainability. The Mets aren’t exactly a bargain team, but they are a little leaner compared with last season. Stearns has built a more efficient, deeper roster and made sure the Mets’ younger players got a chance to establish themselves at the big league level. Over the years, the Mets have tended to be less sustainable and more reckless, which can be fun but wearisome. You’d like to see the new approach pay off in October because, if it does, and you consider this model as a foundation to justify some ramped-up spending to come, you can start to ponder a new golden age in Mets baseball. That’s worth rooting for, though, admittedly, that might work for you only if you already root for the Mets. Smart management is always fun! — Doolittle
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2025-26 NHL season has reached its quarter mark, with all 32 teams having played more than 20 games.
As usual, there are some positive surprises — looking squarely at the Pittsburgh Penguins and Anaheim Ducks — as well as the not-so-positive surprises, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues and Vancouver Canucks.
But, how does each team grade out on its report card for the first 25% of the season? Here’s a rundown of what has gone right, what has gone wrong and a first-quarter letter grade for all 32 clubs.
Note: Teams are listed alphabetically by letter grade. Ryan S. Clark graded the Pacific and Central Division teams, and Kristen Shilton graded the Metropolitan and Atlantic Division teams. Stats are through the games of Nov. 23.
A grades
Preseason over/under: 103.5
Current points pace: 137.9
What has gone right? They lead the NHL in goals per game while also giving up the fewest goals per game. They’re generating the most scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60 and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play. Their defensive structure has made them a top-10 team in terms of the fewest shots allowed per 60 and fewest high-danger chances per 60.
Nathan MacKinnon is in a position to win his second Hart Trophy. Cale Makar could win his third Norris Trophy — and could challenge MacKinnon for the Hart. They now appear to have the supporting cast capable of providing consistent contributions.
The Avs might be the best team in the NHL. And at their current pace, they could threaten, if not surpass, the Bruins’ record of 135 regular-season points set in the 2022-23 regular season.
What has gone wrong? Leading the NHL with 4.00 goals per game comes with the assumption that the Avs can score in any situation. But, the Avs are struggling when it comes to consistently scoring goals on the power play. Entering Monday, the Avs had a bottom-10 power-play unit that was converting on only 15.7% of its opportunities.
Grade: A+
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 108.1
What has gone right? They’re fighting for the Pacific Division crown. They have the second-most prolific attack in terms of goals per game. They’re continuing to see their young talent grow all while offseason addition Chris Kreider had 14 points in his first 15 games.
But what might be the strongest indication of just how well the Ducks are doing this season is Leo Carlsson‘s projected scoring pace. A Ducks player has finished with more than 100 points in a season only four times in franchise history. Carlsson is not only on pace to join a list with Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne, but he’s projected to finish with 108 points. That places Carlsson in a position to have what could be one of the best individual seasons in team history, and threaten Selanne’s franchise record of 109 points.
What has gone wrong? An overreliance on Lukas Dostal in the defensive zone. Dostal has started 17 of the Ducks’ first 22 games. It’s a pace that has him projected to play 63 games — which is the sort of workload reserved for top-tier goalies such as Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
But there’s also the underlying numbers. The Ducks are in the top three in terms of most scoring chances allowed, shots against and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, per Natural Stat Trick. It’s a contrast from Dostal posting a 5.42 goals saved above expected, which is sixth among goalies with more than 10 games.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 103.5
Current points pace: 111.8
What has gone right? Glen Gulutzan’s second stint in charge of the Stars could be defined by perspective. There are some questions why the Stars are in the bottom 10 in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60 and high-danger scoring chances per 60. But there are also those who would argue that maybe it’s just a sign of efficiency. The Stars have the NHL’s No. 2 power-play unit, and are also 10th in goals per game.
It’s a promising return on a season that began with questions about how they would fare under a new coach, while taking into account that they lost three forwards in Evgenii Dadonov, Mikael Granlund and Mason Marchment in the offseason.
What has gone wrong? There has been a bit of a disconnect with how the Stars perform in the defensive zone in 5-on-5 play compared to the penalty kill. They’re among the top 10 teams in fewest goals allowed per game, and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. They are also sitting around league average in allowing the fewest shots per 60. Yet their PK hasn’t been up to par, with a success rate of 75.7%, which is in the bottom 10 in the NHL.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 84.5
Current points pace: 100.6
What has gone right? Detroit is having its best start in a decade, and it’s not for one reason in particular. This is a group effort delivering on GM Steve Yzerman’s vision for the Red Wings as a high-skilled, defensively responsible team. Head coach Todd McLellan is maximizing Detroit’s potential in his first full season.
The defensive buy-in isn’t only reflected in stats — such as how the Red Wings average among the fewest shots against per game this season — but in how skaters such as Dylan Larkin are thriving. The Red Wings’ captain leads the team in goals and points and has provided invaluable leadership to the equally impressive rookie forwards Emmitt Finnie and Nate Danielson.
On the back end, rookie Axel Sandin-Pellikka has been an important presence, and provided Detroit with the depth it needed to be among the Atlantic’s best.
What has gone wrong? The Red Wings have leaned on a strong power play this season; it’s their even-strength scoring that can improve. It won’t be sustainable for Detroit to rely on the extra man to see it through.
Although the Red Wings have shored up collectively on defense, they’re still giving up over three goals against per game, which speaks in part to their goaltending. Cam Talbot has been better this season than last but John Gibson — Yzerman’s big offseason acquisition — hasn’t been any sort of savior. The Red Wings have to hope that tandem can be a difference-maker for them from here.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 84.5
Current points pace: 99.8
What has gone right? Let’s start with the obvious: Matthew Schaefer. The rookie defenseman arrived better than advertised after New York selected him No. 1 in the 2025 draft. Schaefer is electric at both ends of the ice, and takes on important minutes (over 22 per game) that shows how much confidence coach Patrick Roy already has in the Calder Trophy favorite.
And he’s not the only exciting rookie that has Islanders fans buzzing. Maxim Shabanov delivered a breakout three-point performance to cap off a recent 6-1-0 trip, illustrating why New York coveted the former KHL player (and why he’s likely to earn a promotion from the fourth line).
Beyond those two skaters, the Islanders are getting solid goaltending from Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich and, for a team that has consistently searched for more offense, New York is top 10 in the NHL in goals, on the efforts of Bo Horvat (having his best start in years) and a healthy Mathew Barzal and Kyle Palmieri.
What has gone wrong? The Islanders aren’t packing a potent power play (it’s among the league’s worst) and there’s concern that their offense might be too top-heavy to keep pace with deeper clubs. New York also just lost one of its best defensemen — Alexander Romanov — for five to six months after shoulder surgery following a hit from Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen.
Given how the Islanders have exceeded expectations so far, it’s hard to nitpick what else hasn’t worked for them in the grand scheme of the first quarter.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 77.5
Current points pace: 97.6
What has gone right? Pittsburgh is arguably one the season’s most surprising contenders. Few would have picked the Penguins to be in the Eastern Conference playoff mix at the season’s quarter mark.
This is a different Penguins’ team under first-year head coach Dan Muse, who is pushing all the right buttons. Muse’s system brings out the best in Pittsburgh’s skaters by giving them freedom to operate, and that has paid off in the Penguins’ growing confidence. Pittsburgh is giving up the second-fewest goals this season, ranks top 10 in offense and has the league’s best power play. The Penguins’ goaltending has benefitted from the emergence of Arturs Silovs and an improved Tristan Jarry. Basically, it has been all systems go for Pittsburgh.
What has gone wrong? The Penguins have a problem closing out certain games — namely, those stretching beyond regulation. Pittsburgh is 0-4 this season in overtime and the shootout, something Muse has sought to address with practice drills focused on the club’s 3-on-3 work. The standings this season are closer than ever, and leaving points on the board that often is a small area Pittsburgh can clean up.
Rickard Rackell is out for two months because of a broken hand sustained in October, and that will will continue to affect the Penguins’ depth. Jarry going on injured reserve earlier this month was a blow too, and will test Pittsburgh’s resilience.
Grade: A
Preseason over/under: 105.5
Current points pace: 111.8
What has gone right? Carolina isn’t the league’s most exciting team, but it’s one of its best for a reason. The Hurricanes thrive in head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s structure that emphasizes smothering defensive play. Their offense has really excelled this season though, ranking second overall thanks to a potent Seth Jarvis — who leads the team in goals — a slippery Sebastian Aho — pacing Carolina in points — and the always-steady Jordan Staal.
Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov has been excellent in net amid starter Frederik Andersen‘s tough start. Overall, the Hurricanes are deep, detailed and disciplined. It’s no wonder they have lost consecutive games only once this season.
What has gone wrong? The Hurricanes haven’t thrived on special teams. Their power play is the worst in the league, and they’re 21st on the penalty kill. It’s a stark reality given how Carolina can dominate at even-strength (it ranks third in 5-on-5 goals) and might be a temporary glitch if Brind’Amour can figure out why the man advantage especially is such a momentum killer.
Carolina also has a goaltending conundrum with Andersen. The often-injured veteran has already dealt with a concussion this season and his numbers have been poor when he is available. Kochetkov can’t be expected to carry the load entirely, so Carolina will need to either get Andersen on track or search for further goaltending options.
Grade: A-
Preseason over/under: 99.5
Current points pace: 105.4
What has gone right? New Jersey’s star-studded offense has been producing at a solid rate this season — Jack Hughes had 20 points through 17 games, Jesper Bratt had 21 through 21 and Nico Hischier is still capable of being one of the league’s premier two-way centers.
The Devils’ goaltending is another strength because of veteran Jake Allen, who has been excellent handling an increased workload this season. Meanwhile, defenseman Simon Nemec has blossomed after taking a bit longer to hit his stride than some expected after he went No. 2 in the 2022 draft. He has taken on a heavy workload, and that has only amplified how good he can be in the Devils’ own end as well as jumping into the rush.
What has gone wrong? The Devils just wanted to have a pleasant team dinner in Chicago — and instead, the night ended with Hughes requiring surgery on his finger after a freak accident at the restaurant. Having Hughes healthy is (almost) all New Jersey needs to be a Stanley Cup contender, and now that he’s out for multiple weeks (along with Cody Glass and Brett Pesce) the Devils will be dipping into their depth to cover.
Speaking of depth, it’s a good thing Allen has been so hot to start the season because Jacob Markstrom has not. With Hughes out now, it’s even more imperative that New Jersey finds ways to keep scoring and not expose Allen to an onslaught that wears him down.
Grade: A-
B grades
Preseason over/under: 80.5
Current points pace: 88.8
What has gone right? The Bruins were supposed to be Atlantic Division basement dwellers. But — plot twist — they’ve actually been one of its top contenders. Full credit to first-year head coach Marco Sturm for implementing a defense-first structure that Boston has embraced enough to mitigate some of the sting from top center Elias Lindholm sitting out most of the season to date because of a lower-body injury.
Defenseman Nikita Zadorov has been particularly strong, bringing a bruising presence to the Bruins’ blue line. Boston has also benefitted from Jeremy Swayman‘s return to form this season, and the team is top 10 on both the power play and penalty kill. The Bruins weren’t expected to be a powerhouse up front, but David Pastrnak has been his usual dynamic self and Morgan Geekie is a budding offensive star.
What has gone wrong? Injuries are adding up. Defenseman Charlie McAvoy is out indefinitely after taking a puck to the face, and all of Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson and Jordan Harris also have been sidelined of late. The Bruins have overachieved out of the gate, but it doesn’t feel sustainable if skaters such as Lindholm and McAvoy are sitting out extended time and the rest of the league gets healthy enough to catch up.
Even with Sturm’s messaging and Swayman’s solid play, the Bruins are still bottom 10 in goals against, and that’s not an encouraging stat now that McAvoy won’t be around to anchor the back end. The Bruins need consistency, and could struggle to find it.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 67.5
Current points pace: 89.5
What has gone right? Think about the issues the Blackhawks faced last season. Many of them have become the bedrock for a team that’s in the running for the NHL’s biggest surprise through the first quarter of the regular season.
The questions about Connor Bedard have been replaced with another set of questions: Will he make Canada’s Olympic team while also possibly winning a scoring title? Bedard is on pace for 116 points and if that holds, it’ll be the highest-scoring season of any Blackhawks player not named Denis Savard. Plus, any of the concerns about their veterans’ struggles from last season have been erased by what they’re doing this season.
Though Bedard is generating a lot of attention, the goaltending could signify just how much has changed with the Blackhawks from last season. They finished with a team save percentage of .894 in 2024-25 but have begun this season with a .911 mark through the first 22 games, tied for fourth in the NHL. Spencer Knight is presenting his case for why he could be under Olympic consideration for Team USA.
What has gone wrong? Finding cohesion within their defensive structure remains a bit of an issue. Make no mistake, the Blackhawks were expected to encounter some challenges on the defensive end due in part to being what Elite Prospects lists as the third-youngest team in the NHL this season. Their top-four defensemen, in terms of minutes played, are younger than 24, and two of them are rookies.
Having that much youth along with the Blackhawks’ structure has played a role in why they are in the bottom four of scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 and shots allowed per 60 in 5-on-5 play through their first 22 games.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 90.5
Current points pace: 97.6
What has gone right? Montreal didn’t think rookie goalie Jakub Dobes would be a backbone to their early-season success, but the rising star became exactly that by outperforming starter Sam Montembeault as one of the league’s breakout netminders. Dobes has been aided by the Canadiens’ more consistent defensive effort. Montreal didn’t pay enough attention on that end of the ice last season, and it hurt them. Now, the Canadiens have been stronger through the neutral zone and played with tighter gaps to limit rush chances.
The Canadiens’ top skaters have also delivered, with Cole Caufield already notching 13 goals and Nick Suzuki compiling 22 points in his first 20 games.
What has gone wrong? The Canadiens have regressed recently after their impressive start. Dobes and Montembeault have both been below average and Montreal’s confidence appears shaken by lopsided losses (like a 7-0 defeat against Dallas) that call into question all the strides they appeared to have made across the board.
Injuries also continue to take their toll, with Kaiden Guhle, Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine and Alex Newhook all out for significant stretches. Montreal was a surprise playoff team last season but showed it was no fluke given how well they started this season. To stay in that conversation means Montreal has to rely on its depth and not lose sight of those difference-making defensive details.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 102.5
What has gone right? Philadelphia is right in the Eastern Conference’s mushy middle and that’s not so bad if you’re the Flyers. Rick Tocchet’s group is finding ways to win hockey games with solid defensive play — they’ve hovered near the top 10 in goals against per game. That has rubbed off on their penalty kill too, which is near the top of the league.
Goaltender Dan Vladar has been a surprisingly reliable starter, going from a tandem option with Samuel Ersson to a backbone of Philadelphia’s whole operation.
Another pillar is defenseman Travis Sanheim, who has been in superb command of the Flyers’ blue line. And up front, Trevor Zegras — acquired in the offseason to bolster Philadelphia’s center depth — is averaging over a point per game to lead the Flyers’ offense along with Travis Konecny.
What has gone wrong? The Flyers have a good pool of forwards, but they aren’t producing at a high enough rate. Philadelphia is 26th in goals per game this season, and its power play is operating below 20%. Though Vladar and the team’s collective defensive approach has put the Flyers in a solid position for now, it won’t last unless they can find more contributors on the score sheet.
Specifically, Matvei Michkov has taken a step back this season — with only nine points in his first 19 games — and Philadelphia is still searching for consistency throughout the lineup. There’s also the issue of Ersson, and whether he can support Vladar as the season progresses. Some nights Ersson can pass the eye test, but if Vladar stumbles or gets hurt, they’ll be counting on the backup to step up.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 70.5
Current points pace: 89.1
What has gone right? Any conversation around the Sharks at this moment is one that requires a level of nuance.
Their current projection has them on pace to finish with more than 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season, which was also their last playoff appearance. They’ve seen progress from their young core of Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund and Will Smith while their veterans continue to help in ways that can and can’t be measured.
Then there’s an entirely different conversation that can be had about Macklin Celebrini. Yes, Celebrini has been so good that he is among the league leaders in points and could be playing his way on to Canada’s Olympic team. Yet what might get lost in the discussion around Celebrini is the idea he could end up having the greatest individual season in Sharks history. He’s currently on pace for 121 points, and if that holds, he’d surpass Joe Thornton for the most in a single season (114).
What has gone wrong? The six-game losing streak to start the season. They gave up more than three goals in each of those defeats, which only amplified what it meant to begin the season in a hole. It was a streak that also played a role in why the Sharks are in the bottom 10 in goals per game, goals allowed per game and have the 11th-worst penalty kill.
To put it another way: Since the losing streak ended on Oct. 23, the Sharks have the fourth-most points in the NHL
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 78.5
Current points pace: 104.4
What has gone right? Only the Rangers have committed a higher percentage of their active salary cap space to their goalies than the Kraken. The early returns of that investment are one of the major reasons why the Kraken are actively fighting for a playoff spot at the moment.
Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show that the Kraken were leading the NHL in team save percentage in 5-on-5 play as of Monday, and were tied for fourth in team save percentage in all situations. Joey Daccord, Philipp Grubauer and Matt Murray have provided a continuity in net that has complemented the Kraken’s defensive structure.
Lane Lambert’s first season as coach has seen the Kraken reestablish their defensive identity as one of the stronger teams in the NHL at limiting high-danger scoring chances per 60, and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
What has gone wrong? Giving up 2.59 goals per game has made the Kraken one of the harder teams to score against this season. But scoring 2.55 goals per game will make it harder for the Kraken to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. The margins have been so tight that they had identical numbers when it came to goals scored per game and goals allowed per game as recently as Friday. Having such little margin for error is part of a larger composite that illustrates how the Kraken have struggled to score goals and find ways to generate those opportunities for goals.
There are only three teams in the NHL that are averaging fewer goals per game than the Kraken. It’s a process that has been made even more difficult by the fact that the Kraken are last in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60 and high-danger chances per 60. And yet, they entered Monday just a point behind the Ducks for first place in the Pacific Division — having been in a wild-card spot just four days earlier. Because that’s what the landscape has looked like in the Western Conference through the opening quarter.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 104.5
Current points pace: 105.4
What has gone right? They’re finding defensive continuity without Alex Pietrangelo. Scoring goals is important, but there was a strong belief the Golden Knights were going to score many of them anyway — and they have this season. Losing their No. 1 defenseman in Pietrangelo as he recovers from a bilateral femur reconstruction created questions about how they would fare without him.
They’ve used the first quarter to establish themselves as one of the more consistent defensive structures in the NHL. The Golden Knights have been a top-three team this season in terms of allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 and shots per 60.
What has gone wrong? Here’s where it gets bizarre. The Golden Knights are limiting high-danger chances and shots in ways that should benefit their goalies. And yet there’s still something of a disconnect with how their goalies have performed this season.
The Golden Knights are around league average in team save percentage in 5-on-5 play but rank in the bottom third of the NHL when it comes to team save percentage in all situations, at .893. It’s part of what played into the decision to sign Carter Hart, who is currently playing for their AHL affiliate as he’ll be eligible for reinstatement on Dec. 1 as part of the Hockey Canada trial in which five players were acquitted for sexual assault.
Grade: B+
Preseason over/under: 84.5
Current points pace: 93.2
What has gone right? Columbus can always count on Zach Werenski to deliver, and the Blue Jackets’ best player has been exactly that to start the season. Werenski is tied for the second-most points on the team — having notched his 400th career point earlier this month — and plays nearly 27 minutes per game.
Up front, it’s Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov and Adam Fantilli showcasing how promising Columbus’ present and future are on offense, as those young skaters continue to grow and mature into their individual games. The Blue Jackets have had notable scoring success at 5-on-5 as well thanks to one of the league’s best attacks on the rush.
The goaltending — specifically from Jet Greaves — has been better than expected to keep Columbus right in the Eastern Conference wild-card mix.
What has gone wrong? The Blue Jackets haven’t had much luck on special teams, having a middling power play and one of the league’s worst penalty kills. Though the man advantage has shown signs of life recently it has been a thorn in Columbus’ side not being able to capitalize on more of those chances — or keep their opponents’ chances from ending up in the net.
The Blue Jackets have star performers, but there is a significant drop-off in contributors throughout the lineup. Losing captain Boone Jenner to injury hurts Columbus there, and the Blue Jackets might struggle in the wake of his absence trying to sort out their offensive attack.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 98.5
Current points pace: 96.9
What has gone right? It has been the defensive consistency for the Kings. Playoff teams are going to be judged on what allowed them to win and/or be eliminated. Giving up 20 goals over the final four games of their first-round series last season against the Oilers — after having a 2-0 series lead — created quite a few questions about the Kings. Among the items that came into question was their defensive structure.
They’ll probably need to wait until the playoffs to definitively answer any of the questions raised after their four straight first-round exits. But the way they’ve started the season — allowing the fifth-fewest goals per game — has at least presented the notion that they’re adept at playing close games, with goal prevention at the heart of that plan.
What has gone wrong? Scoring goals has been a problem for the Kings. They’re in the bottom six in goals per game and on the power play.
But the detail that makes the Kings’ struggles equally fascinating and perplexing would be how their underlying numbers skew. On one hand, they’re ranked sixth in high-danger scoring chances per 60, and 12th in shots. But, they rank just below league average in scoring chances per 60. It’s a formula that has further reinforced why their defensive consistency matters, as they’re averaging 2.68 goals while giving up 2.68 goals entering Monday.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 94.5
Current points pace: 99.8
What has gone right? Being able to consistently field the same roster. Injuries took the Wild from having one of the best starts of any team last season to one that had to fight just to grab a wild-card spot.
To be clear, this season has had its challenges. But it comes with the context that they’ve had eight players appear in every game, and 13 of their skaters have played in 20 or more of their first 23 games. The impact of that has been reflected in the Wild’s defensive core: Three of the top four defensemen in terms of average ice time have played in every game, and Jonas Brodin has sat out only one.
What has gone wrong? They need to score more goals. Anyone who follows the Wild knows how this all works; they struggle to consistently score goals but can often rely or in some cases rely too much on their defensive structure and goaltending to win games.
This season has seen its share of disconnects with that approach. Minnesota’s underlying numbers suggest it should be scoring more goals. The Wild are in the top half of the NHL in scoring chances per 60 and shots per 60. They are also 18th in high-danger chances, only to be in the bottom 10 of goals per game. To to get in a more secure playoff position — they’ve been jockeying between third place in the Central or a wild-card spot — they’ll need to ramp up the scoring.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 95.5
Current points pace: 101.5
What has gone right? Ottawa got off to a shaky start before recommitting to head coach Travis Green’s defensive structure. That shift has been a game-changer, as the Senators staked their claim among the Atlantic’s top three clubs. The Senators are giving up the third fewest shots against per game this season, and their goals against average has trended downward since adapting that new mindset in late October.
Ottawa hasn’t had trouble scoring with Drake Batherson — leading the Sens with 19 points in 17 games — Tim Stutzle, and Shane Pinto all contributing regularly. Jake Sanderson continues to be a revelation at both ends for Ottawa, and that has been especially impactful with captain Brady Tkachuk still sidelined after an early-season injury.
What has gone wrong? The Senators have too often been fighting themselves because of subpar goaltending from Linus Ullmark. The Vezina Trophy winner hasn’t been in top shape this season, giving up three or more goals in 10 of his first 16 starts, while forcing Ottawa to try to outscore every mistake. Backup Leevi Merilainen has done his best to step in when called upon, but Ullmark has to maintain control of the crease with more consistency from here for Ottawa to keep up in the crowded Atlantic race.
And to that end, recent injuries to top defenseman Thomas Chabot and forward Ridly Greig could certainly damage Ottawa’s depth as they wait for Tkachuk to return.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 101.5
Current points pace: 101.5
What has gone right? The Lightning are, well … the Lightning. Regardless of what a season throws at them, this team adjusts to its circumstances and remains dangerous.
Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov pack a one-two punch up front to lead the offense, and Guentzel’s performance has been particularly strong this season while the Lightning’s depth has been under the microscope. The Lightning also have Anthony Cirelli as an archetypal 200-foot center, and Victor Hedman can still go toe-to-toe to be among the league’s best defenders. The Lightning are a solid defensive group overall and dominate on the penalty kill.
Jon Cooper makes the most of his lineup every night, and that’s one of Tampa Bay’s true superpowers.
What has gone wrong? The Lightning are going through it with injuries already — and now Hedman is out for a couple of weeks. Only six skaters have appeared in all Tampa Bay’s games this season, forcing the Lightning to rely on call-ups to fill in the gaps. It has worked well enough to keep the team in the playoff picture, but without the same swagger the Lightning are used to wielding.
Speaking of missing swagger, what happened to Brayden Point‘s? The usually dynamic top-line skater is a shadow of his previous seasons’ performances, with only three goals and 11 points in his first 20 games. The Lightning are accustomed to getting quite a bit more out of him.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 97.5
Current points pace: 93.7
What has gone right? The Jets can score goals, sometimes in bulk. They can get those goals from different line combinations and defense pairings in ways that many teams throughout the league can’t replicate. The manner in which they’ve received offensive contributions from different players complements how Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and Mark Scheifele are each averaging more than a point per game.
It’s part of the reason behind why they are in the top 12 of goals per game while also boasting a top 10 power play. Knowing they can generate goals at a high rate could prove useful upon the news that three-time Vezina recipient Connor Hellebuyck could sit out up to six weeks.
What has gone wrong? Missing Hellebuyck for an extended period could present challenges and potentially amplify what has been an area of concern for the Jets when it comes to their defensive structure. There are only three teams that have given up more scoring chances per 60. They’ve also given up the ninth-most high-danger chances per 60 in addition to being in the top 10 of allowing the most shots per 60.
It’s what makes the work done by Eric Comrie and Hellebuyck even more vital through the first quarter. The Jets had a top-five team save percentage in all situations, and the eighth-best team save percentage in 5-on-5 play before Hellebuyck’s injury. Now they’ll need Comrie — and World Junior Championships hero Thomas Milic — to provide continuity in Hellebuyck’s absence.
Grade: B
Preseason over/under: 106.5
Current points pace: 89.8
What has gone right? Florida has proved depth and resiliency can be a weapon. Or, at least a helpful tool. The Panthers are adaptive in the face of injury woes, and that next-man-up mentality could see them through as it has in the past.
Florida is getting some of Brad Marchand‘s best hockey in years as the team’s goals and points leader, complementing strong starts from Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell. The Panthers can seemingly weather a storm better than most thanks to, well, you know — being back-to-back Stanley Cup champions and all, and the confidence that comes with it.
What has gone wrong? Florida has been cratered by injuries. Captain Aleksander Barkov tore his ACL and MCL during a preseason practice and is out for the season. Eetu Luostarinen was sidelined after sustaining burns in a barbecuing accident. Cole Schwindt needed surgery after breaking his arm colliding with Panthers’ goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. And all of those follow Matthew Tkachuk being out after offseason surgery.
Florida is truly putting “bend-don’t-break” to the test, and it’s hard to even assess what the Panthers can be given how long the injured list is — and, more specifically, the caliber of players who are on it.
Grade: B-
Preseason over/under: 92.5
Current points pace: 93.2
What has gone right? There has been enough of a sample size that proves the Mammoth could have something good with their current roster. A seven-game winning streak was part of a sequence that saw them open the regular season winning eight of their first 10 games.
One reason why they were in the top five in giving up the fewest goals per game in that span is because they were also a top-five team when it came to giving up the fewest shots per game. They were also in the top five of most shots per game, which translated into them being in the top five of goals scored per game.
What has gone wrong? There also has been enough of a sample size that proves the Mammoth still need more. Consider how they’ve performed since that seven-game winning streak ended Oct. 28. They’ve had a pair of three-game losing streaks, with their second such streak reaching four. It’s part of a larger sequence that has seen them lose nine of their 12 most recent games.
In that span, they’re in the bottom four in terms of goals scored per game and are in the bottom 10 in terms of giving up the most goals per game.
Grade: B-
C grades
Preseason over/under: 96.5
Current points pace: 89.5
What has gone right? Washington has Alex Ovechkin still playing premier hockey into his 40s. That simply can’t be taken for granted. The Capitals’ captain tied for the team lead with 20 points in his first 20 games, and also added another hat trick earlier this month.
He’s not the only veteran contributing for Washington — Tom Wilson, John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun have all been difference-makers in D.C.
Goaltender Logan Thompson also has been outstanding, ranking among the league’s top starters in save percentage and goals-against average.
What has gone wrong? The Capitals aren’t the same team that finished atop the Eastern Conference standings last season. Coach Spencer Carbery’s aim to build Washington into a faster club that can keep pace with the league’s speedier lineups isn’t happening. There’s a lack of consistency in the scoring attack, and that was made worse when Pierre-Luc Dubois hit injured reserve this month. And now Nic Dowd is also out.
It’s not just at even strength where Washington hasn’t produced — the Capitals’ power play is well below average, and their penalty kill is bottom five in the league. There’s just something off about how the Capitals show up on a game-to-game basis. Though their top players appear mostly dialed in, the supporting cast isn’t doing its part on a regular basis.
Grade: C+
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 82
What has gone right? Buffalo found a potential hidden gem in goaltender Colten Ellis. The Sabres claimed Ellis off waivers from St. Louis in October, and he has stepped in recently to help stabilize Buffalo in net. Ellis was 3-1-0 in his first four games, with a .914 save percentage, earning a longer look in the starter’s role and providing a bright spot amid an otherwise difficult season.
Josh Doan is another new face that has fit in well, playing over 15 minutes per game and notching 12 points in his first 20 games.
The Sabres have shown they can score in bunches — that 9-3 victory over Chicago this month was proof — and they’ve produced the league’s best penalty kill (89.8%). And, Buffalo’s actually starting to heat up; after losing five straight, the Sabres have rebounded to win four of their past five.
What has gone wrong? The Sabres aren’t yet close to snapping that historically long playoff drought. Buffalo sank to the bottom of the Atlantic Division early, and are only now making slow progress out of it. The Sabres are leaky defensively, their offense is top-heavy and inconsistent, plus their power play is sputtering too often.
Injuries have invariably played a role in Buffalo’s struggles — only a handful of skaters have appeared in every game this season — and the Sabres simply haven’t had the depth to make up for their frequently full infirmary. It’s hard not to question if coach Lindy Ruff’s messaging is already falling on deaf ears if Buffalo can’t turn things around. And what happens then?
Grade: C
Preseason over/under: 103.5
Current points pace: 85.4
What has gone right? Being a point out of the final wild-card place at this point. Much of that has been due to Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid both averaging more than a point per game while others such as Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Roslovic have also made offensive contributions for the Oilers.
The two-time defending Western Conference champions have done this before. They’ve had slow starts — some even slower than what they’ve encountered this season — and have still reached the Stanley Cup Final.
What has gone wrong? The thing about slow starts is that it leads to the same questions being asked every season.
That’s what could make Nov. 19 a potentially crucial date for the Oilers after giving up seven goals in a loss to the Capitals. It was the 13th time in 22 games that the Oilers gave up more than four goals. Watching the Oilers be exposed led to Sportsnet’s broadcast pointing out that they gave up the most goals in the NHL, the most goals in 5-on-5 play and had the lowest team save percentage.
Grade: C-
Preseason over/under: 95.5
Current points pace: 78.4
What has gone right? New York is a superior defensive team under first-year coach Mike Sullivan, and that has kept them afloat. The Rangers are one of the NHL’s stingiest teams — averaging 2.65 goals-against per game — and that’s credit to many of New York’s skaters playing some of the best defense of their careers.
And of course the offseason addition of Vladislav Gavrikov changed the narrative there too; the big-bodied defender has been a strong partner to Adam Fox anchoring the Rangers’ blue line.
Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick have been a terrific goaltending tandem for the Blueshirts as well, a good reflection of the Rangers’ defensive commitment.
What has gone wrong? The Rangers can’t score enough goals, which might be an understatement. New York scored one goal in its first four games, and still hasn’t lit the league on fire. The Rangers’ offense ranks 30th overall (2.48 goals per game) for good reason: their star scorers being anything but. J.T. Miller had 12 points in 22 games — and is now out because of an upper-body injury. Mika Zibanejad managed only 15 points through 23 games. Not even Artemi Panarin is averaging a point-per-game pace.
It’s a good thing New York has shut down opponents defensively because Sullivan has yet to find an answer for the sputtering offense. Fittingly, it’s made New York a team without a clear identity.
Grade: C-
Preseason over/under: 99.5
Current points pace: 78.3
What has gone right? Toronto could not have anticipated John Tavares turning back the clock. That’s the case though, and a good thing too because Tavares — along with William Nylander — has been powering the Leafs’ success up front. Tavares’ 12 goals in his first 21 games was top 10 in the NHL, and Nylander compiled 27 points in his first 19 games. Nick Robertson is also a surprise standout with a regular top-six role.
Toronto has managed to rank top five in goals scored and second in 5-on-5 goals. The Leafs recently welcomed Joseph Woll back from dealing with a personal issue to start the season, and the netminder has barely missed a beat stepping in as Toronto’s reigning No. 1 goalie.
What has gone wrong? Mitch Marner is no longer on the roster, and unsurprisingly, they just don’t look the same.
Granted, Toronto’s difficulties stem from much more than just Marner’s absence. Toronto thrived in coach Craig Berube’s defense-first system last season, but are one of the league’s worst teams against the rush and are top three in goals against per game this season. Toronto has no real identity; frankly, it has been difficult to establish one. The Leafs have been decimated by injuries everywhere, from goaltender Anthony Stolarz (who struggled in his early starts), to top forwards Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, to depth centers Nicolas Roy and Scott Laughton and right through the blue line, with Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo both sitting out time.
That has left Berube to try to patch together a lineup too often lacking chemistry — or confidence. Tavares and Nylander have been instrumental in keeping the Leafs afloat, but Toronto’s recent stretch going 1-5-2 has left them at a loss for answers, and at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
Grade: C-
D grades
Preseason over/under: 83.5
Current points pace: 64.9
What has gone right? Being in contention for the worst record in the NHL usually comes with the association of a porous defensive structure. Unless it’s the Flames, apparently.
Their defensive structure would be the hallmark of a team that’s trying to make a push for a playoff spot. They’re in the top four in terms of allowing the fewest scoring chances per 60 and high-danger scoring chances per 60. The Flames are also 13th in shots allowed per 60.
What has gone wrong? Their struggles in the offensive zone have played a significant part in why the Flames have alternated between having either the worst record in the NHL or one of the worst marks in the league. They were averaging 2.10 goals per game throughout the early portion of November.
But their recent three-game winning streak has seen them average 4.66 goals in those victories, which has raised their average to 2.38 goals per game. Don’t get too excited; that’s now the second-lowest average goals per game in the NHL. It’s a figure that also makes them one of the more offense-challenged teams in NHL history. The Flames’ current goals per game average would be in the bottom 200 teams all time in terms of single-season goals per game.
Grade: D
Preseason over/under: 90.5
Current points pace: 71.3
What has gone right? Winning four of their first six games. That window provided a glimpse into how a healthy version of the Canucks could function. A fully healthy Thatcher Demko looked like the version of himself that was a Vezina Trophy finalist in 2023-24. Filip Chytil scored three goals during that stretch and was starting to answer questions about whether he could find consistency as a top-six center.
There was also the continued emergence of Kiefer Sherwood — who went from having 19 goals in his first season with the Canucks to scoring four times in those six games as part of a month in which he finished with nine goals.
What has gone wrong? Nearly everything since Oct. 21. That’s when the Canucks went on the first of what has been three, three-game losing streaks, along with a rash of injuries that has greatly altered their lineup.
They have needed 29 skaters and three goaltenders just to get through their first 23 games. They’re a bottom-10 team in terms of shots per 60, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60, and have faced even greater struggles defensively. The Canucks are either the worst or second-worst team in the NHL when it comes to allowing the most shots per 60, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60.
Grade: D
Preseason over/under: 92.5
Current points pace: 74.5
What has gone right? A positive that can quickly be turned into a negative appears to be the most succinct way to describe the Blues in 2025-26.
They’re among the best teams in the NHL at limiting scoring chances. They are a top-10 team when it comes to giving up the fewest scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances per 60. OK, so how is having what appears to be a functional defensive structure a bad thing? It’s because the Blues are giving up the third-most goals per game at 3.64 goals per game.
What has gone wrong? They’ve had one of the more disappointing starts in the NHL. They were a playoff team that used the offseason to add a 25-goal scorer in Pius Suter to a group that had seven returning players who reached double figures in goals.
But they’ve gone through the first quarter with the third-fewest points in the NHL. They’re averaging the fifth-fewest goals per game, while residing in the bottom 10 of shots per game. Their goaltending has disrupted their defensive structure by having the fourth-lowest team save percentage in all situations, and the fifth worst in 5-on-5 play. The Blues came into Monday five points adrift of the final wild-card spot, with the idea that what happens in the near future could determine if they’re a playoff team or one destined for the lottery.
Grade: D-
F grade
Preseason over/under: 86.5
Current points pace: 62.5
What has gone right? Well, they have an above league average penalty kill. So, there’s that at least.
Filip Forsberg is continuing to build upon his legacy as the best forward in the franchise’s history. He’s projected to reach the 30-goal mark for the fourth time in the past five seasons, and for the fifth time in his career. Plus, Matthew Wood is presenting a strong case to make the All-Rookie Team and potentially be a Calder Trophy finalist. All of that, along with the fact that the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game Saturday could have College Football Playoff implications for both teams.
What has gone wrong? They were the last team to reach the 50-goal mark this season, and have the lowest goals-per-game average in the NHL at 2.29. This has a chance to be one of the more offense-challenged seasons in league history should it continue. They entered Monday in the bottom 125 in league history when it comes to the lowest single-season averages in goals per game.
Those frustrations have extended to other areas, with the Preds giving up the sixth-most goals per game. They have a bottom-seven power play. They’ve been without their best defenseman and arguably best player in Roman Josi for most of the season. And Steven Stamkos, who has scored more than 580 career goals, is on pace to finish with fewer than 20 for the first time in his career in a non-injury season.
Grade: F
Surprise — there were no surprises.
After a ho-hum Week 13 that featured only two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as it debates its fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):
Here’s a prediction of what the group might do in the latest ranking on Tuesday night:
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (which lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are its only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.
Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.
Need to know: Although Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the latter two teams both need help to clinch.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)
Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road at Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric.
Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.
Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)
Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday by Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.
Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage on Friday night after Thanksgiving.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule — ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members might also think Georgia has a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets (9-2) pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.
Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.
Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)
Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.
Why they could be lower: The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.
Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks have won five straight since their 30-20 home loss against Indiana on Oct. 11, but USC was the kind of strong performance against a top-15 team the committee has been waiting for. And they did it without several key injured players on both sides of the ball.
Need to know: With USC dropping out of the playoff picture, the biggest threat to Oregon is gone, but Michigan can still disrupt the picture in the final week. According to ESPN Research, if Michigan beats rival Ohio State AND Indiana OR Oregon loses, the Wolverines will clinch a spot in the conference championship game. Which team they face depends on how those other results unfold, but they could play any of those three — Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
Why they could be here: A win against what was the committee’s No. 22 team in Missouri should further solidify Oklahoma’s foothold in the No. 8 spot because the defense was dominant on a day the offense did just enough. That was Oklahoma’s third straight win against a CFP top 25 opponent, including back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Alabama. The Sooners also earned a ranked win on Sept. 6 against Michigan, which continues to be valuable after the Wolverines kept their playoff hopes alive on Saturday with a win against Maryland.
Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)
Why they could be here: The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.
Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.
Need to know: Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish. If Alabama wins the SEC and jumps ahead of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to the No. 10 spot, they could be in trouble if the Big 12 has two playoff teams. If BYU wins the Big 12, and Texas Tech joins it in the top nine as the Big 12 runner-up — then a team currently in the top 10 has to be excluded. The No. 11 team will get bumped out for the ACC champ and the No. 12 team will get knocked out for the Group of 5 champion.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)
Why they could be here: The committee made it clear last week that Alabama’s struggles on the ground have been an issue all season. It was one factor that separated No. 9 Notre Dame from No. 10 Alabama in last Tuesday’s ranking. Alabama’s 259 rushing yards in a lopsided 56-0 win against a 3-9 FCS team in Eastern Illinois aren’t going to sway anyone in the room enough to move the Tide up. Alabama still has one of the best résumés in the country, including a win against No. 4 Georgia during a streak of four straight CFP top 25 wins during the middle of the season. The loss to Oklahoma will keep Alabama behind the Sooners as long as the committee deems them comparable.
Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.
Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Iron Bowl is a must-win for the Tide.
11. BYU Cougars (10-1)
Why they could be here: With the win at Cincinnati, BYU passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season and earned another road win against a team that was ranked by the committee, albeit for a fleeting moment. BYU’s Oct. 18 win against Utah will continue to resonate in the room after Utah found a way to beat a pesky K-State team. The head-to-head win against the Utes will also keep BYU ahead of them. BYU’s only loss was on the road against No. 5 Texas Tech, but it was a poor performance that raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult for the Cougars to move up.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but is guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. UCF. The 5-6 Knights will be playing for bowl eligibility.
12. Utah Utes (9-2)
Why they could be here: After Utah found a way to escape K-State on Saturday, its only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of its deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami’s convincing road win at Virginia Tech and bump the Canes up a notch because they played far better defense — albeit against a 3-8 ACC team. Utah allowed 472 rushing yards and 11.2 yards per carry against Kansas State — on its home field. It was Miami’s third straight win by at least 17 points, showing some of the consistency committee members had been looking for. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame is also better than any win Utah has earned to date.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. At 5-6, the Jayhawks will be playing for bowl eligibility.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Six teams are still eligible to reach the ACC conference championship game — Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Another four are still in contention to win the Big 12 (Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah).
And don’t forget that Michigan can still make it to the Big Ten title game.
The bubble is bursting with lingering hope heading into the final week of the regular season. With only Rivalry Week and the conference championship games remaining, the picture can still change drastically as teams punctuate their résumés — or tumble out entirely.
Little if any change, though, is expected tonight in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN). Eleven of the committee’s top 12 teams won on Saturday — and 10 of those victories came by double digits. While the latest top 12 projection remained unchanged, the teams on the bubble have shifted.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will account for the committee’s latest top 25.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or it can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate comes if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide has played the ninth-most-difficult schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and its résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it could face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee is the first step, but they would also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s not inconceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of it matters, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its spot in the top 10. It could even have a case this week to jump Ole Miss. Oregon now has an 18% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it needs to beat Washington AND it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State AND a loss by either Indiana OR Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head loss to USC because the Trojans have three losses and are likely to drop behind Michigan in the latest ranking. The loss to Oklahoma, though, would probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finished with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, would have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona AND a BYU loss OR a win AND losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas AND both BYU and Arizona State win AND Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 13% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. It’s imperative they win at Pitt on Saturday and would help if the committee ranked the Panthers tonight. The Canes have a compelling case this week to unseat Utah for the No. 12 spot after beating Virginia Tech for their third straight win by at least 17 points. That was Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been waiting for. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, but until the Canes creep closer to the Irish in the ranking and join them in the same pool of teams the group votes on, they will likely remain behind the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: if Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. It will be interesting to see if the committee ranks three-loss SMU tonight. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter of which are both above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get in the ACC championship game with a win AND either a loss by SMU OR UVA. Duke can get in with a win and losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and/or Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chance to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave will likely maintain its spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following its 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference championship game and there are multiple tiebreaker scenarios still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — if Navy is not ranked ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking on Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win AND a loss by either Tulane OR North Texas.
Bracket
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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