Will Oregon’s offense tailor-made for Dillon Gabriel pay off?
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPN
EUGENE, Ore. — It’s a midsummer day in July, and Oregon‘s present and future at the quarterback position are fittingly passing each other inside the brightly lit hallways of the Marcus Mariota Performance Center.
Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore dap each other up and go their separate ways. Gabriel, the 23-year-old from Hawai’i who has been in college since 2019 and is about to play for his third program. Moore, the 19-year-old who was born in Cleveland, played high school football in Detroit and is suiting up for his second season on his second team.
Despite being at different stages of their career, Gabriel and Moore found common ground in what appealed to them about Oregon — a place where they had seen a quarterback like Bo Nix become the best version of himself while winning.
Gabriel’s journey is a peculiar one. He went from Oahu to UCF before making his way to Oklahoma and eventually, back toward the Pacific. It made him one of the longer tenured players in the sport and one of the most experienced. Over the course of six seasons, Gabriel has thrown 1,831 passes for over 16,000 yards. For reference, Oklahoma State‘s Alan Bowman — who has been in college since 2018 — has thrown for 6,000 fewer yards.
“It’s hard to find that type of experience,” offensive coordinator Will Stein said. “Everywhere he goes, he wins. He won in high school, he has won in college. He’s played in the biggest settings in college football.”
For Stein and head coach Dan Lanning, the option to bring in Gabriel was a no-brainer. His Hawaiian roots and experience watching former Oregon great and Hawai’i native Marcus Mariota was a bonus. For Gabriel, however, his first decision following his most productive season yet while at Oklahoma was whether or not to go to the NFL. As Gabriel explained it, once he decided to forego the draft, he wanted to make a different move. Oklahoma had been great for him, but with his offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby leaving to take a head-coaching job at Mississippi State and the Sooners being a younger team, he decided to find a new home.
“It wasn’t the best timing,” Gabriel said of Oklahoma. “But when it came to Oregon, I’ve never been so decisive and clear of what I wanted. When I was on the phone with them, I was already envisioning myself there.”
The Ducks are 5-0 this season as Gabriel is well on his way to another season of over 3,000 passing yards while being the most efficient quarterback in the country. However, Oregon has also shown it’s not quite operating at the level that it did with Nix last season. Though they are back at No. 3 in the AP poll, the Ducks dropped after struggling to beat Idaho and Boise State early in their first two games. Key statistics like red zone conversion and explosive plays from scrimmage are down from 2023, too.
“We can be better,” Lanning said after the Ducks’ win over Oregon State. After taking down UCLA, he reiterated the notion. “I see all the things we can get better at,” he said when asked about the win.
With No. 2 Ohio State coming to Eugene this week for what could be the biggest matchup in the new-look Big Ten this season, Gabriel is about to lead Oregon on a stretch of games that includes at least three ranked teams and another rival in Washington as it hopes to not just reach the College Football Playoff for the first time under Lanning, but also put itself in a position to win it all. As Lanning has said before, those are the expectations in Eugene. It’s part of why Gabriel transferred teams for one last ride.
“I had clear goals for myself and that’s winning a national championship and putting myself in the best spot to do so,” Gabriel said. “You get all you want here — the offensive fit, the surrounding cast and the team and a coach who believes and that chance to win the national championship.”
THE THREAD THAT is attempting to connect Nix to Gabriel and eventually to Moore is Will Stein.
Former offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham may have been part of what brought Nix to Eugene, but after he left for the Arizona State head-coaching gig, Stein was able to seamlessly pick up where he left off and help Nix put together a Heisman-worthy season in 2023.
You don’t have to spend too much time talking to Stein to realize that he’s a football-obsessed mind. Stein is pragmatic about how to run an offense and though that doesn’t mean he isn’t flexible with his approach, it does bring about a palpable confidence to what he does. As he put it, Gabriel has bought in since Day 1, because he knows this is an opportunity to run a “pro-style offense that will translate to the next level.”
“And we’ll run an offense that has been successful at every stop I’ve been at,” Stein said.
As soon as Oregon received a commitment from Gabriel, the former co-offensive coordinator at UTSA went back and watched all of Gabriel’s previous college games to see what schemes he thrived in, which ones he didn’t and how they could fit into the offense that Stein had already established in Eugene.
“It’s hard to put a label on what we do because we kind of do a little bit of everything. … We like to look complex, but we’re really pretty simple,” Stein said, describing his offense as one that can be nimble to different personnel groupings, formations and different quarterbacks. “Going back to the Chip [Kelly] days, which is high octane, high tempo, limited formation spread. We’re really not that, like we have that ability, we do a lot of that, but when you get down to the core of what we are, we’re as pro style as anybody else.”
The one thing that is certain inside Stein’s system is this: His offense gives the quarterback plenty of freedom, but also the responsibility of getting the offense “in good plays and out of bad plays.” It’s why filling that void left behind by Nix with a player like Gabriel and planning for the future with Moore was so crucial.
“He knew how to tailor the offense around Bo,” Moore, who was initially committed to Oregon before flipping to UCLA, said of Stein. “He adjusted it. He tailored it to him. Dillon, he comes in and says he likes this, he’s going to tailor it around him. Me coming in too, he’s going to tailor the offense around you.”
Nix, Stein said, was a phenomenal processor of information, giving him the ability to handle all the pre-snap motions, scheme changes and protections. To maintain that level of competence on that side of the ball, they needed someone who could jump in and process things quickly, someone who had already seen a lot before.
“It’s like talking to that graduate-level student, you know, compared to freshman,” Stein said of a player with as much experience as Gabriel. “He’s seen a lot of defenses over his career. He has played in big moments, but there’s still a process to it. His command of the offense has to be of the utmost importance for us to function at a high level.”
Stein said that some of the initial learning may have been outside of Gabriel’s comfort zone. But his willingness to learn — through repetition and trial and error — meant that as the first game of the season approached, they had now installed the offense three separate times, and both of them felt as comfortable as they could have on such a fast timeline.
“I’ve been in the McDonald’s menu where you may have the number one, but there’s more to memorize,” Gabriel said of the different offensive approaches he’s encountered. “But then I’ve also been in the Bible verse era, they tell every single person what to do, but you’re able to be much more clear on communicating every single thing. So it’s just a mixture. Whatever gets the job done.”
Whether it’s a playcalling style that’s more intricate or one that’s simpler, Gabriel has experienced it all. In Eugene, Gabriel said, learning the offense has been complex but not unfamiliar. If anything, it’s similar concepts with different terms, and he knows that the elaborate nature of the offense is also what allows him to have more control over it.
So far, the results have been both undeniable — five wins, an average of 458 yards per game and 35 points per game — but not quite an encore of last season, where Nix and Co. averaged 531 yards and 44 points per game while boasting the eighth best red zone touchdown conversion rate in the country. This year, the Ducks are 45th in that stat.
Still, it’s hard to nitpick Gabriel’s production (1,449 yards, 11 touchdowns). Like Nix last season, Oregon’s offense has produced the most efficient quarterback in the country. Gabriel’s 77.8 completion rate tops all quarterbacks so far this season (Nix finished at 77.4 last year), even those who have nearly half the passing attempts he does.
“Dylan’s been extremely efficient,” Lanning said after Oregon’s win over UCLA. “It’s all him. He’s the one making every play. None of these coaches get to go make any of those plays.”
For all the talk about Stein’s scheme or Gabriel’s experience, even Moore’s potential, Lanning’s rhetoric during most postgames is a reminder that none of it matters without execution. Without being able to conjure up another year of eligibility for Nix, getting a quarterback who has executed at a high level for five full seasons now like Gabriel was the next best thing. And now, with Moore in the system as a sophomore and former No. 2 overall recruit, Oregon is hoping it can have a longer runway to develop a quarterback in their image.
“I think after his freshman year [Moore] realized that maybe the decision he made wasn’t what he wanted to do originally,” Stein said. “We wanted to make his original dreams to play here come true. And when you can add and improve your team at a spot that you feel is like a positional need in the future, you do it. It’s just like free agency in the NFL. We have the opportunity here to do that.”
TEZ JOHNSON IS smiling.
Oregon has just handled UCLA 34-13 at the Rose Bowl and Gabriel is sitting to his left after throwing for three touchdowns — two of them caught by Johnson. Gabriel’s 10 incompletions in the game are the most he has had all season to this point. The week before against Oregon State, Gabriel started the game 15-for-15.
When Johnson, who witnessed Nix’s development into one of the best quarterbacks in the sport while in Eugene firsthand, is asked what he has seen from Gabriel so far this season to give him confidence in the Ducks’ offense going forward, he does not hesitate.
“I see confidence, poise, trusting his teammates,” Johnson said. “And when you got a quarterback like that, it’s always comfortable. … As a receiver you love that because you don’t have to really think of too much. His job is already hard as it is, so we try to make it easy for him.”
Though the scores and the win column tell one story, it hasn’t been all easy for Gabriel and Oregon. The shuffling — by design — of the offensive line early on in the year didn’t seem to put the Ducks in the best position to succeed as Gabriel was sacked seven times in the first two games.
But against Oregon State, Lanning put Iapani Laloulu at center and shuffled the rest of the line around him, sticking with the unit throughout the victory. Since the shift, Gabriel has not been sacked once in the past three games.
It took Nix a full season to reach his full potential inside Oregon’s offense. Much like Gabriel, the best version of the combination between the two parties didn’t happen right away. But if Gabriel and Oregon want to turn this season into something more than just Gabriel’s last and another close call for Lanning, any learning curve must be erased.
There has been marked improvement from Oregon’s offense from its first game to now, but with the undefeated Buckeyes and the stingiest defense in the nation looming, there will be no margin for error.
Oregon has trusted Gabriel with ushering the unit in the footsteps of one of the more productive quarterbacks the school has seen. The first five games were about getting acquainted with what the offense looks like on the field and setting the tone. The next five will determine what kind of season Oregon will have. What may seem like pressure to some is easy for Gabriel to embrace, in this environment more so than most.
“They have complete confidence in me out there and it’s empowering,” Gabriel said. “If s—‘s f—ed up, you want to make it right, you know? The freedom they give me allows us to make it right.”
Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.
This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
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