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EUGENE, Ore. — It’s a midsummer day in July, and Oregon‘s present and future at the quarterback position are fittingly passing each other inside the brightly lit hallways of the Marcus Mariota Performance Center.

Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore dap each other up and go their separate ways. Gabriel, the 23-year-old from Hawai’i who has been in college since 2019 and is about to play for his third program. Moore, the 19-year-old who was born in Cleveland, played high school football in Detroit and is suiting up for his second season on his second team.

Despite being at different stages of their career, Gabriel and Moore found common ground in what appealed to them about Oregon — a place where they had seen a quarterback like Bo Nix become the best version of himself while winning.

Gabriel’s journey is a peculiar one. He went from Oahu to UCF before making his way to Oklahoma and eventually, back toward the Pacific. It made him one of the longer tenured players in the sport and one of the most experienced. Over the course of six seasons, Gabriel has thrown 1,831 passes for over 16,000 yards. For reference, Oklahoma State‘s Alan Bowman — who has been in college since 2018 — has thrown for 6,000 fewer yards.

“It’s hard to find that type of experience,” offensive coordinator Will Stein said. “Everywhere he goes, he wins. He won in high school, he has won in college. He’s played in the biggest settings in college football.”

For Stein and head coach Dan Lanning, the option to bring in Gabriel was a no-brainer. His Hawaiian roots and experience watching former Oregon great and Hawai’i native Marcus Mariota was a bonus. For Gabriel, however, his first decision following his most productive season yet while at Oklahoma was whether or not to go to the NFL. As Gabriel explained it, once he decided to forego the draft, he wanted to make a different move. Oklahoma had been great for him, but with his offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby leaving to take a head-coaching job at Mississippi State and the Sooners being a younger team, he decided to find a new home.

“It wasn’t the best timing,” Gabriel said of Oklahoma. “But when it came to Oregon, I’ve never been so decisive and clear of what I wanted. When I was on the phone with them, I was already envisioning myself there.”

The Ducks are 5-0 this season as Gabriel is well on his way to another season of over 3,000 passing yards while being the most efficient quarterback in the country. However, Oregon has also shown it’s not quite operating at the level that it did with Nix last season. Though they are back at No. 3 in the AP poll, the Ducks dropped after struggling to beat Idaho and Boise State early in their first two games. Key statistics like red zone conversion and explosive plays from scrimmage are down from 2023, too.

“We can be better,” Lanning said after the Ducks’ win over Oregon State. After taking down UCLA, he reiterated the notion. “I see all the things we can get better at,” he said when asked about the win.

With No. 2 Ohio State coming to Eugene this week for what could be the biggest matchup in the new-look Big Ten this season, Gabriel is about to lead Oregon on a stretch of games that includes at least three ranked teams and another rival in Washington as it hopes to not just reach the College Football Playoff for the first time under Lanning, but also put itself in a position to win it all. As Lanning has said before, those are the expectations in Eugene. It’s part of why Gabriel transferred teams for one last ride.

“I had clear goals for myself and that’s winning a national championship and putting myself in the best spot to do so,” Gabriel said. “You get all you want here — the offensive fit, the surrounding cast and the team and a coach who believes and that chance to win the national championship.”


THE THREAD THAT is attempting to connect Nix to Gabriel and eventually to Moore is Will Stein.

Former offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham may have been part of what brought Nix to Eugene, but after he left for the Arizona State head-coaching gig, Stein was able to seamlessly pick up where he left off and help Nix put together a Heisman-worthy season in 2023.

You don’t have to spend too much time talking to Stein to realize that he’s a football-obsessed mind. Stein is pragmatic about how to run an offense and though that doesn’t mean he isn’t flexible with his approach, it does bring about a palpable confidence to what he does. As he put it, Gabriel has bought in since Day 1, because he knows this is an opportunity to run a “pro-style offense that will translate to the next level.”

“And we’ll run an offense that has been successful at every stop I’ve been at,” Stein said.

As soon as Oregon received a commitment from Gabriel, the former co-offensive coordinator at UTSA went back and watched all of Gabriel’s previous college games to see what schemes he thrived in, which ones he didn’t and how they could fit into the offense that Stein had already established in Eugene.

“It’s hard to put a label on what we do because we kind of do a little bit of everything. … We like to look complex, but we’re really pretty simple,” Stein said, describing his offense as one that can be nimble to different personnel groupings, formations and different quarterbacks. “Going back to the Chip [Kelly] days, which is high octane, high tempo, limited formation spread. We’re really not that, like we have that ability, we do a lot of that, but when you get down to the core of what we are, we’re as pro style as anybody else.”

The one thing that is certain inside Stein’s system is this: His offense gives the quarterback plenty of freedom, but also the responsibility of getting the offense “in good plays and out of bad plays.” It’s why filling that void left behind by Nix with a player like Gabriel and planning for the future with Moore was so crucial.

“He knew how to tailor the offense around Bo,” Moore, who was initially committed to Oregon before flipping to UCLA, said of Stein. “He adjusted it. He tailored it to him. Dillon, he comes in and says he likes this, he’s going to tailor it around him. Me coming in too, he’s going to tailor the offense around you.”

Nix, Stein said, was a phenomenal processor of information, giving him the ability to handle all the pre-snap motions, scheme changes and protections. To maintain that level of competence on that side of the ball, they needed someone who could jump in and process things quickly, someone who had already seen a lot before.

“It’s like talking to that graduate-level student, you know, compared to freshman,” Stein said of a player with as much experience as Gabriel. “He’s seen a lot of defenses over his career. He has played in big moments, but there’s still a process to it. His command of the offense has to be of the utmost importance for us to function at a high level.”

Stein said that some of the initial learning may have been outside of Gabriel’s comfort zone. But his willingness to learn — through repetition and trial and error — meant that as the first game of the season approached, they had now installed the offense three separate times, and both of them felt as comfortable as they could have on such a fast timeline.

“I’ve been in the McDonald’s menu where you may have the number one, but there’s more to memorize,” Gabriel said of the different offensive approaches he’s encountered. “But then I’ve also been in the Bible verse era, they tell every single person what to do, but you’re able to be much more clear on communicating every single thing. So it’s just a mixture. Whatever gets the job done.”

Whether it’s a playcalling style that’s more intricate or one that’s simpler, Gabriel has experienced it all. In Eugene, Gabriel said, learning the offense has been complex but not unfamiliar. If anything, it’s similar concepts with different terms, and he knows that the elaborate nature of the offense is also what allows him to have more control over it.

So far, the results have been both undeniable — five wins, an average of 458 yards per game and 35 points per game — but not quite an encore of last season, where Nix and Co. averaged 531 yards and 44 points per game while boasting the eighth best red zone touchdown conversion rate in the country. This year, the Ducks are 45th in that stat.

Still, it’s hard to nitpick Gabriel’s production (1,449 yards, 11 touchdowns). Like Nix last season, Oregon’s offense has produced the most efficient quarterback in the country. Gabriel’s 77.8 completion rate tops all quarterbacks so far this season (Nix finished at 77.4 last year), even those who have nearly half the passing attempts he does.

“Dylan’s been extremely efficient,” Lanning said after Oregon’s win over UCLA. “It’s all him. He’s the one making every play. None of these coaches get to go make any of those plays.”

For all the talk about Stein’s scheme or Gabriel’s experience, even Moore’s potential, Lanning’s rhetoric during most postgames is a reminder that none of it matters without execution. Without being able to conjure up another year of eligibility for Nix, getting a quarterback who has executed at a high level for five full seasons now like Gabriel was the next best thing. And now, with Moore in the system as a sophomore and former No. 2 overall recruit, Oregon is hoping it can have a longer runway to develop a quarterback in their image.

“I think after his freshman year [Moore] realized that maybe the decision he made wasn’t what he wanted to do originally,” Stein said. “We wanted to make his original dreams to play here come true. And when you can add and improve your team at a spot that you feel is like a positional need in the future, you do it. It’s just like free agency in the NFL. We have the opportunity here to do that.”


TEZ JOHNSON IS smiling.

Oregon has just handled UCLA 34-13 at the Rose Bowl and Gabriel is sitting to his left after throwing for three touchdowns — two of them caught by Johnson. Gabriel’s 10 incompletions in the game are the most he has had all season to this point. The week before against Oregon State, Gabriel started the game 15-for-15.

When Johnson, who witnessed Nix’s development into one of the best quarterbacks in the sport while in Eugene firsthand, is asked what he has seen from Gabriel so far this season to give him confidence in the Ducks’ offense going forward, he does not hesitate.

“I see confidence, poise, trusting his teammates,” Johnson said. “And when you got a quarterback like that, it’s always comfortable. … As a receiver you love that because you don’t have to really think of too much. His job is already hard as it is, so we try to make it easy for him.”

Though the scores and the win column tell one story, it hasn’t been all easy for Gabriel and Oregon. The shuffling — by design — of the offensive line early on in the year didn’t seem to put the Ducks in the best position to succeed as Gabriel was sacked seven times in the first two games.

But against Oregon State, Lanning put Iapani Laloulu at center and shuffled the rest of the line around him, sticking with the unit throughout the victory. Since the shift, Gabriel has not been sacked once in the past three games.

It took Nix a full season to reach his full potential inside Oregon’s offense. Much like Gabriel, the best version of the combination between the two parties didn’t happen right away. But if Gabriel and Oregon want to turn this season into something more than just Gabriel’s last and another close call for Lanning, any learning curve must be erased.

There has been marked improvement from Oregon’s offense from its first game to now, but with the undefeated Buckeyes and the stingiest defense in the nation looming, there will be no margin for error.

Oregon has trusted Gabriel with ushering the unit in the footsteps of one of the more productive quarterbacks the school has seen. The first five games were about getting acquainted with what the offense looks like on the field and setting the tone. The next five will determine what kind of season Oregon will have. What may seem like pressure to some is easy for Gabriel to embrace, in this environment more so than most.

“They have complete confidence in me out there and it’s empowering,” Gabriel said. “If s—‘s f—ed up, you want to make it right, you know? The freedom they give me allows us to make it right.”

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Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

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Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.

We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.

Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).

That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.

The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”

That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.

But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.

The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.

Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.

It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).

That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.

Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.

But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.

Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)

And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?

This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.

Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…


We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.

For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.

But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?

Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.

As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)

Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?

That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.

This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.


A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.

Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).

The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”

What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.

Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.

Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.

We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…

  • SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.

  • FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.

  • Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.

  • FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.

So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?

We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.

(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)

But, speaking of Alabama…


4. Championship game participants

Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?

This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).

OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.

So, what happens if Alabama loses?

The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.

Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.

It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.


Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.

But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.

Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State

Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy

Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF

Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five

Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd

FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th

There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.

Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

Welcome to the party, James Madison.

With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.

If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.

At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.

A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.

At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.

Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt


Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.

The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin


Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.

Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia


ACC

Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.

Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.


Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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Ole Miss rises to sixth in latest CFP rankings

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

The College Football Playoff selection committee didn’t penalize Ole Miss because of former coach Lane Kiffin’s stunning departure to LSU in its penultimate rankings Tuesday.

In fact, the committee moved the Rebels up one spot to sixth in the rankings after their 38-19 victory at rival Mississippi State in last week’s Egg Bowl.

Ole Miss officials were concerned that the selection committee might ding them after Kiffin departed for their SEC rival on Sunday, potentially putting their chances of hosting a CFP first-round game later this month in jeopardy.

“Obviously, our team is still intact,” Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter told ESPN on Tuesday. “Our players are fired up and ready to go. We’ve got a great staff that’s ready to roll throughout the playoff run.”

Unbeaten Ohio State and Indiana remain the top two teams, followed by No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Texas Tech and No. 5 Oregon. The Bulldogs, Red Raiders and Ducks each moved up one spot after previously unbeaten Texas A&M lost 27-17 at Texas last week.

Texas A&M fell four spots after suffering its first loss of the season, one spot behind Ole Miss, and was followed by Oklahoma, Alabama and Notre Dame to round out the top 10. BYU was 11th, and Miami was 12th.

“I will tell you that the debate between Alabama and Notre Dame the past three weeks has been one of the strongest debates we’ve had in the room for the past two years that I’ve been a member of the committee,” CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek, the athletic director at Arkansas, said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night. “Notre Dame went on the road, had a strong win at Stanford. But Alabama went on the road, in a rivalry game, and looked really good, especially in the first half.”

As it stands, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and Texas Tech would receive first-round byes under the current rankings. And the first-round games would look like this: Tulane at Oregon; Virginia at Ole Miss; Notre Dame at Texas A&M; Alabama at Oklahoma.

The Cougars and the Hurricanes would be bumped out of the field if Tuesday’s rankings were used for the 12-team playoff bracket. No. 17 Virginia would replace BYU as the projected ACC champion, and No. 20 Tulane would replace Miami as the highest-ranked champion of a non-Power 4 conference.

The final CFP rankings will be announced Sunday.

“We will evaluate the results of the championship games after they are all completed,” Yurachek said.

How the selection committee would handle the Rebels was one of the most pressing questions concerning this week’s rankings. Ole Miss won 11 games in the regular season for the first time in school history, and its only loss came Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels have won five straight since then.

“I think these guys should be judged by what they’ve done on the field, and 11-1, I think it speaks for itself,” Carter said. “I would hope that the committee kind of looks at the information they have and rewards these young men for an incredible season.”

Kiffin left Ole Miss before finishing his sixth season with the Rebels, signing a seven-year contract with LSU that will make him one of the highest-paid coaches in the FBS. He took a handful of assistant coaches with him to Baton Rouge on Sunday.

On Tuesday, LSU announced that new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. — Ole Miss’ primary playcaller this season — would be allowed to return to the Rebels for the CFP.

“I’ve already made the committee aware of this and I’m hopeful this decision will allow Ole Miss to receive the highest ranking possible because these great players are very deserving of that,” Kiffin said in a statement. “I’m excited that Charlie will be back to help coach the greatest team in the history of Ole Miss.”

Texas moved up three spots to No. 13 after its upset of the Aggies, followed by Vanderbilt and Utah. USC was No. 16 and Virginia, Arizona, Michigan and Tulane completed the top 20. Houston, Georgia Tech, Iowa, North Texas and James Madison were ranked Nos. 21 to 25.

Houston, the Hawkeyes, the Green Machine and the Dukes were new additions to the rankings. And Tennessee, Arizona State, SMU and Pittsburgh fell out of the rankings after losing last week.

With both Tulane and North Texas ranked from the American Conference, and with James Madison included from the Sun Belt Conference, there’s a chance that two champions from the Group of 5 leagues could get bids into the 12-team playoff for the first time if five-loss Duke upsets Virginia in Saturday’s ACC championship game. North Texas plays at Tulane in Friday’s American championship game; Troy plays at James Madison in the Sun Belt title game, also on Friday.

Miami is the highest-ranked team from the ACC, but the Hurricanes didn’t qualify for the conference’s title game.

Notre Dame lost at Miami 27-24 in the Aug. 31 opener, but the Fighting Irish remain two spots in front of the Hurricanes, even though the teams have identical 10-2 records. Both teams have completed their regular season.

“Idle teams can move following the results of the championship games,” Yurachek said with specific regard to Miami and Notre Dame. “Teams that are idle can move up or down.”

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