Breaking down the wildest moments of Yankees-Guardians Game 3
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
CLEVELAND — For nearly an hour Thursday night, the New York Yankees had seemingly overcome a bout of sloppy baseball to pull within a win of the World Series in jaw-dropping, crowd-silencing, totally bonkers fashion.
Down two runs with two outs in the eighth inning, the Yankees were tasked to solve Emmanuel Clase, the best closer in baseball, to give themselves a chance to take a 3-0 series lead. In 74 regular season appearances, the fireballer allowed five earned runs. The Detroit Tigers got to him once in the AL Division series — before he shut them down again in multi-inning appearances in the next two games. Erasing the deficit appeared next-to-impossible.
Then Aaron Judge blasted a low line drive that pierced through the air, just over the right-field wall for a game-tying two-run home run. Two minutes later, Giancarlo Stanton crushed a slider over the wall in center-field to make it back-to-back homers and a one-run New York lead. The Yankees spilled out of their dugout in celebration. They had slayed the mighty Clase.
Then, well, then a game bordering on the absurd leaped across the line to give us one of the most memorable games in recent postseason history.
“That was an incredible game on both sides. All the emotions, ups and downs, back and forth, you name it,” Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “If there’s an emotion, we all felt it on both sides.”
Roller coaster. Heavyweight fight. Insert cliche here. It was a classic baseball game. Here are the game’s six biggest moments — with the win probability before each turn — to illustrate the madness.
Top of the eighth inning, two outs
Cleveland leads, 3-1
Win probability: 93.2% Cleveland
The Judge at-bat against Clase starts with what happened moments before it started, when Guardians right-hander Hunter Gaddis seemed to pitch around Soto. Gaddis, whose 5% walk rate during the regular season was tied for 14th among relievers, issued a two-out, four-pitch walk to Soto, and none of the pitches were particularly close. Vogt then replaced Gaddis with Clase.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he didn’t believe Gaddis pitched around Soto. Judge said he had “no idea.” Regardless, the sequence set up a marquee matchup. Judge vs. Clase. Power vs. power. The best hitter in the world against the best reliever in the world.
The clash tilted toward Clase early. The right-hander jumped ahead on Judge with a cutter down the middle that Judge fouled off and a cutter down away he swung through. Judge then took a 99-mph cutter way off the plate before Clase dotted the outside corner with another 99-mph cutter.
“He just stayed with it,” Stanton said of Judge. “It was incredible. It wasn’t a bad pitch. It was low and away, on the black. And he does what he does.”
What Judge did was barrel the baseball. It traveled 109.9 mph off the bat and landed 356 away, just over the wall, and bounced into the stands as Judge sprinted to first base. Tie game.
“I thought it was low,” Judge said. “So, you know, my first thought is try to be on second base. Hopefully Juan can score or he’s at third base. But try to get on second base for Big G coming up in that situation.”
Top of the eighth inning, two outs
Tie game, 3-3
Win probability: 59.9% Cleveland
Like his fellow gargantuan teammate, Stanton fell behind 0-2. He fouled off a 91-mph slider, swung through a 100-mph cutter, and fouled off a cutter down the middle. Two pitches later, he fouled off a 93-mph slider over the plate. Those two pitches stuck with him.
“He was riding the cutters and sliders in, so it was just get one out over the plate,” Stanton said. “And I missed a couple out over the plate so I was able to get to the third one.”
The third one was the seventh pitch of the battle, a 90-mph slider that caught too much plate. Stanton pounced with an 85-mph swing — the hardest by a player on either side Thursday. It jumped off the bat at 106.1 mph and was deposited 390 feet from home plate.
“I think I threw a right fist pump, like fired up,” Boone said. “But you’re right in the game …You’re kind of staying with what’s next. But you certainly feel the energy of a couple shots like that.”
And just like that, the Yankees had a lead. It was the first time Clase had given up multiple home runs in a game in 326 career appearances, postseason included. New York was three outs from pulling within a win of its first World Series appearance in 15 years. It was a stunning turn of events. And it was just getting started.
Bottom of the ninth inning, two outs
Yankees lead, 5-3
Win probability: 98.5% New York
Luke Weaver, called on for a four-out save, had danced out of a two-on, two-out jam in the eighth inning by striking out David Fry. Then, after Anthony Rizzo committed an error to start the bottom of the ninth, he started a nifty 1-6-3 double play to squash Cleveland’s momentum.
He was one out away from his fourth postseason save of at least four outs. It looked imminent when he jumped ahead 0-2 on Lane Thomas after the double play. But suddenly, he lost the momentum. The next three pitches were uncompetitive and Thomas took them to run the count full. The sixth pitch of the at-bat was a 95-mph fastball down and in that Thomas hooked off the tall left-field wall.
“You get to 0-2 and you just try to do a little too much,” Weaver said. “Thomas has a good at-bat there, and, yeah, the moment starts to get a little big. So just trying to take a step back and tonight didn’t quite have the execution in that moment that I needed to.”
Bottom of the ninth inning, two outs
Yankees lead, 5-3
Win probability: 95.4% New York
After the game, Vogt was clear about his motivation in sending Jhonkensy Noel up to pinch-hit for Daniel Schneemann: “I mean, he pinch hit to hit a homer,” Vogt said. “That’s why we sent him up there.” And, boy, did the man they call Big Christmas deliver.
After taking another uncompetitive pitch way out of the strike zone, Noel pounced on a fat changeup over the heart of the plate and left no doubt. He smoothly flipped his bat to the side the second he made contact to tie the game. Pandemonium rained around him. He had, at least for the moment, effectively saved the Guardians’ season.
“Just really felt like I let the team down there, myself down,” Weaver said. “It’s baseball, things like that happen. A twist of an arm and it just feels a little devastating. We’re still in a good position. Feel like there’s some momentum there, but they earned it. It was a crazy game. The bats were hot and the ball was flying out of the park.
Weaver hadn’t given up a home run or multiple runs since Sept. 2 — his last appearance before becoming the Yankees’ primary closer.
“It hurts a little bit more, yeah,” Weaver said. “It hurts a little bit more knowing how hard they work to get the game to where it was. It hurts even more knowing I had 0-2, we’re one pitch away after a big double play. Yeah, it all stinks. It hurts more knowing how close we were, how big a 3-0 [lead] would be. But that’s life. I’ve been through plenty of failure to know that it’s not always how we want it to be.”
Top of the 10th inning, one out
Tie game, 5-5
Win probabiiity: 50.8% New York
The Yankees were threatening to quickly retake the lead when Stanton worked a one-out walk to bring up Jazz Chisholm Jr., who had walked and singled in his previous two plate appearances. This time, the Yankees third baseman hit a chopper in the hold at second base that appeared destined to leak through the infield.
That is until Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez, ranging to his left, somehow snagged the baseball in shallow right field, twisted around, and made a leaping throw falling to his backside. It one-hopped to first baseman Josh Naylor, who stretched to his limit with his left foot just glancing the first base to complete the improbable out.
The play, reminiscent of the kinds Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar made in his three seasons as Cleveland’s second baseman at the turn of the century, deflated the Yankees’ rally.
“Andrés Giménez is the best infielder on the planet,” Vogt said. “He has been, and he will be. He makes plays that make us wow every single day it seems like.”
Bottom of the 10th inning, two outs
Tie game, 5-5
Win probability: 62.7% Cleveland
The night finally ended, after 3 hours and 52 minutes, with David Fry launching a mistake 1-2 sinker — up and over the plate — from Clay Holmes into the seats beyond the left-field wall.
“I just told God, like, ‘Hey, man, take this,'” Fry said. “It’s a tough matchup. Just try to have fun. You take the at-bat, got behind in the count and just got a pitch up in the zone and luckily it went out.”
The Yankees, up to that point, were 196-1 in their postseason history when leading by multiple runs in the ninth inning or later, according to ESPN Research. Their only other loss in that situation? Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS against … the Guardians.
“We’re supposed to go out there and do our job,” Holmes said. “That’s our job, to go out there and shut things down. Our hitters did a great job of putting us in position and we just didn’t make pitches. But our expectation is to go out there and put up zeroes.”
It was Fry’s second home run of the postseason, and both have been huge. The first was a go-ahead, two-run home run in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers with the Guardians facing elimination. That home run saved the Guardians’ season before they came back to advance another round. Time will tell if Thursday’s heroics will do the same.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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