Budget: Rachel Reeves has left herself with very few political levers to pull to get hold of large sums of cash
In a classic piece of political understatement, a government source justified the coming £20bn rise in employer national insurance as “asking businesses to help out”.
This language of throwing a few quid in the collection pot belies the size of this tax hike.
It is huge. But that’s the point.
Having ruled out pushing up the big revenue raisers, Rachel Reeves has left herself with very few levers to pull to get hold of large sums of cash.
This move will be the largest tax rise in the budget, filling half of the £40bn the chancellor is trying to find.
The fact that national insurance is paid by businesses big and small increases the size of the net – meaning relatively small headline changes can yield big sums.
That’s also the downside though.
Groups representing small companies have already said this will make jobs harder to create and maintain.
So what of the politics?
At £20bn, the value of these tax rises mirrors almost exactly the cost of all 4p worth of cuts to employee national insurance pushed through by the last Tory government (with the support of Labour).
We’re essentially seeing a shift in the national insurance burden from workers to businesses.
But again, maybe that’s the point.
Analysis: Are Starmer and Reeves on the same page?
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Those with assets ‘not working people’
Much has been made of the fuzziness around Sir Keir Starmer’s attempts to define who the ‘working people’ are that he is seeking to protect from tax rises.
Government comms on the matter have been clunky.
But there’s also been something of a misreading of what that two-word phrase represents.
For some this has been a conscious and political choice.
Such as when one Tory MP suggested the prime minister believed anyone who owns a (tax-free) ISA doesn’t count as a working person.
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Will the chancellor’s fiscal plan work?
In fact, isn’t it more likely that the now fabled ‘working person’ was never meant as a technical definition, but rather a statement of political intent?
Consider these statements – reproduced here without endorsement – that Labour would like you to ingest:
If you’re among the 97% who doesn’t pay capital gains tax, we’re on your side.
If you’re among the 94% who doesn’t pay inheritance tax, we’re on your side.
Much has been made of Sir Keir’s definition of ‘working people’. Pic: PA
And yes, if you’re among the overwhelming majority of people whose biggest tax outlays are income tax, national insurance and VAT, we’re on your side too.
Set against that backdrop – even if we’re still unclear about who a ‘working person is’ – it becomes pretty obvious who the prime minister believes is not one.
And it’s a familiar and traditional Labour answer.
It’s the 1% as opposed to the 99%. The few, not the many. The rich rather than the poor.
But drawing a line like that when it comes to policy is harder.
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The modest-earning family with a few stocks and shares may wonder why they are now thrown in with the serial investors.
The small family-run bakery will ask why they are seeing their payroll taxes whacked up alongside the big corporates.
And economists will argue that business taxes like national insurance are always ultimately paid by workers eventually in the form of lower wages and fewer jobs.
Which leads us to what will likely be one of the central tensions in the budget.
The only solution to pay for public services in the long term is economic growth.
But can that growth be achieved when the interim funding fix relies on upping taxes on the rich and the private sector?
The chancellor will try to square that circle on Wednesday by announcing billions of pounds of extra investment borrowing.
But firms may still feel the government has bought them a fancy pair of trainers only to then break both their legs.
Police have made a direct appeal to those involved in the murder of a teenager to finally bring her family closure, exactly 30 years after she disappeared.
Lindsay Rimer, 13, went out to buy a box of Corn Flakes late in the evening on 7 November 1994 and never returned home. Her body was found in a canal close to her home six months later.
Lindsay’s family have also marked this year’s anniversary with a renewed appeal for information from the public, particularly in the town of Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire where Lindsay lived and died.
“This person should be in prison, not us because that’s where we feel we’ve been for the last 30 years,” her sister Kate Rimer told Sky News.
Juliet Rimer was just one when her sister was killed but has recently been reading letters and diaries to gain a better understanding of a life cut short.
“It’s just, it’s a bit of a horror film that we have to do this,” she said. “The fact that I had a sister that I never knew who was murdered, I just can’t wrap my head around that. It’s had a massive impact on me.”
Lindsay months before her death
Kate, who played the part of her sister in a police reconstruction a year after her disappearance, says the family believes someone has information that could lead to her killer’s arrest.
“It’s usually been my mum who does this but the emotional toll it’s taken on my parents means that they just can’t do this anymore.
“It’s incredibly emotional, it opens everything up, and it reflects back over 30 years ago and everything that we lived through then. And just the horror of a loved family member, a child being murdered, is a really bizarre situation. You live your normal life around that and then we’re opening up again to bring murder and death back into our family.”
In the years since Lindsay’s disappearance, police have spoken to more than 5,000 people and examined 1,200 vehicles. Two men were arrested and later released.
A new sighting of Lindsay after she left the convenience shop on the night she disappeared has been confirmed and police believe those in the community have vital information.
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Juliet, left, and Kate Rimer speak to Sky News this month
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Detective Chief Inspector James Entwistle of West Yorkshire Police made a direct appeal to those who were involved in killing and disposing of her body.
“Has this been on your conscience for thirty years?” he said.
“It’s perfectly possible there’s more than one person involved, its perfectly possible there’s a vehicle involved. Maybe you didn’t murder Lindsay but you know exactly who did because you were there and that’s sat on your conscience for 30 years.
“Now is the time to come and talk to us, now is the time to draw a line under this and bring that closure for Lindsay’s family.”
New posters featuring Lindsay’s picture have gone up around Hebden Bridge as part of the appeal for information and an increased police presence will be in the town.
Juliet said: “It has been 30 years but Lindsey didn’t deserve this and we owe it to her as her family to keep doing this.”
Lucy Letby suggested she could give “tips” to a colleague on how to get away with murder, a public inquiry has heard.
The child serial killer exchanged WhatsApp messages in 2017 with union rep Hayley Griffiths about the US legal drama How To Get Away With Murder.
The discussion took place a year after the neonatal nurse was moved to clerical duties at the Countess of Chester Hospital following concerns she may have been deliberately harming babies.
In a message to Letby, Ms Griffiths wrote: “I’m currently watching a programme called how to get away with murder. I’m learning some good tips.”
Letby replied: “I could have given you some tips x”
Ms Griffiths said: “I need someone to practice on to see if I can get away with it.”
Letby wrote: “I can think of two people you could practice on and will help you cover it up x”
Ms Griffiths replied: “Deal. I will get thinking of a plan. Get the cruise booked as our getaway.”
The pair were working in the hospital’s risk and patient safety department a year before Letby was arrested on suspicion of multiple murders by Cheshire Police.
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How the police caught Lucy Letby
Ms Griffiths said she was aware of the concerns of foul play and the connection to Letby by September 2016.
Shahram Sharghy, representing some of the families of Letby’s victims, asked: “Given the severity of the allegations that were made, and would you agree they are possibly the most serious allegations that anybody could make against a healthcare professional, were you making light of those allegations when you were referring to potentially committing a crime?”
Ms Griffiths answered: “No.”
Mr Sharghy asked: “Can you even begin to imagine and put yourself in the position of the families of the babies who were harmed when they see those messages?”
Ms Griffiths said: “I know… I am so remorseful. As soon as I saw them myself I was upset and I can’t begin to imagine… I can only apologise and say I have learned. I can’t go back in time but I have reflected absolutely on it.”
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Earlier, Ms Griffiths told counsel to the inquiry Rachel Langdale KC: “It was nothing more than a conversation. However, I truly and deeply regret having started that conservation… this is completely unprofessional, poor judgement on my behalf and completely insensitive. And for that, I can only apologise from the bottom of my heart.”
Letby, 34, from Hereford, is currently serving 15 whole-life orders.
She was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering seven infants and attempting to murder six others between June 2015 and June 2016.
The Thirlwall Inquiry into the events surrounding her crimes is expected to sit until early 2015. The findings are expected by late autumn that year.
UK
Newcastle: Three men arrested in connection with deadly house explosion and on suspicion of cannabis production
Three men have been arrested in connection with a deadly house explosion in Newcastle.
Seven-year-old Archie York and Jason Laws, who was in his 30s, were killed following the blast in Violet Close, in the Benwell and Elswick area of the city in October.
Police said at the time that six others were taken to hospital “with varying injuries” after the blast and subsequent fire.
Three men – two in their 30s and one in his 50s – have been arrested on suspicion of two counts of manslaughter, and the production of a Class B drug, namely cannabis, Northumbria Police said.
They all remain in police custody.
Detective Chief Inspector Katie Smith said: “This has been a truly tragic incident which resulted in the loss of two lives.
“As a result of our ongoing enquiries, three men have today been arrested in connection with the explosion.
“Our investigation will remain ongoing as we seek to provide answers to what has happened.
“We would continue to ask people to avoid speculation surrounding this incident both online and in the community.”
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From October: Deadly blast destroys Newcastle house
The blast tore through a row of six properties divided into two flats each.
Drone footage showed how six flats in the middle of the building appeared to have been completely destroyed by the explosion and fire, while piles of debris could be seen in the street outside.
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Superintendent Darren Adams, from Northumbria Police, said on the day of the fire: “As a result of the incident in the early hours of this morning, a seven-year-old boy has sadly passed away.
“Despite the efforts of the emergency services, he tragically died at the scene.
“This is a truly devastating outcome.”
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