‘I think he’s just in his head’: Why Aaron Judge has disappeared at exactly the wrong time for the Yankees
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
NEW YORK — Another World Series game, another rough night at the plate for Aaron Judge. After he went 0-for-3 with another strikeout in the New York Yankees‘ Game 3 loss Monday night, New York finds itself in a familiar spot: waiting for its star slugger to break out.
“He’s one swing away,” Yankees hitting coach James Rowson told ESPN on Monday. “I know it’s a big story, but from my standpoint, this guy is one of the best hitters to ever play the game. On any given night the whole narrative gets rewritten.”
But with the Los Angeles Dodgers one win away from a World Series sweep, New York’s superstar slugger is running out of opportunities to flip the script. And those around the sport watching from the scouts’ seats, the executive offices or even just in front of their television sets at home see a specific problem that needs to be solved: Judge is chasing too many pitches outside the zone, and L.A. is taking advantage of it.
“The Dodgers are feeding him spin, spin, spin that he is chasing,” an American League scout told ESPN. “Then the fastball looks harder than it actually is, so he is out of timing. He needs to stop worrying about the big moment and just go with those sliders and take them into right field and the right-center-field gap.”
Handling anything thrown with break or spin has been Judge’s Achilles’ heel all postseason. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he’s hitting just .071 on breaking pitches in October, compared to .258 during the regular season. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate on those pitches is a whopping 58.5% compared to 39.8% from March through September.
Every time he flails at another breaking pitch for a strikeout, it allows the Dodgers to keep attacking with the same plan instead of having to challenge him with heat.
Judge is still doing damage off fastballs — when he sees them. He’s hitting .364 with a 1.429 OPS against pitches thrown 95 mph or faster in the playoffs, but so far this month, Judge has seen 6% fewer fastballs than he did during the regular season, and the frustration of not getting pitches he can drive is becoming obvious to observers.
“I think he might be pressing a little bit,” 2007 National League MVP Ryan Howard said on the field before Game 3. “Right now, I think he’s just in his head. He knows what pitch they’re trying to get him out on, and when you’re swinging and missing it, you’re kind of forcing it. Just have to relax a little.”
Despite the struggles, Judge’s manager has his back. Boone has made it clear that he is not considering moving Judge up or down in the lineup: “That’s our guy, and there’s pressure in the Series, whatever spot you’re hitting.”
One NL executive agreed with Boone’s mindset: “If this was the regular season, I could see moving him up to leadoff to get him going, but I don’t think Boone should do that. At this time of year, you have to believe in and stick with your best players. He’s the best of the best.”
So with the season on the line, can Judge rediscover his MVP form? Patience might be the key.
“He needs to get them back in the zone or take some walks,” the NL executive said. “How many does he have in the postseason?”
Judge has walked eight times this postseason but only twice in the past seven games after he walked an MLB-leading 133 times during the regular season. But the thing that could most help ignite Judge is about more than drawing free passes to first base — it’s about making pitchers come to him.
“Just wait for that pitch as long as it’s in the zone,” Howard said of the advice he’d give to Judge.
With the Yankees needing to pull off the seemingly impossible — winning four straight games to complete a World Series comeback — maybe Judge will finally get the one pitch that gets him going.
“He’s big enough, strong enough, to hit the ball out of any part of the ballpark.” an NL scout said. “He’s got to use the whole field. When he starts to use the whole field and up the middle, you’re going to see the Aaron Judge you saw all year long.”
The Yankees just have to hope they’ll still be playing long enough to see it happen.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Doug Greenberg, ESPN
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
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