How Colorado turned its defense around, plus stop rate for all 134 CFB teams
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Max Olson, ESPN Staff Writer
When Deion Sanders needed a new defensive coordinator back in January, he looked to the NFL and leaned on peers he trusts. They pointed him in the direction of a 38-year-old coach who’d never been a DC anywhere but had the potential to be just what Colorado needed.
Ten months later, it’s hard not to be impressed by what Robert Livingston is achieving in Boulder. Under his leadership, the Buffaloes have one of college football’s most improved defenses. Just look at their stop rate.
What is stop rate? It’s a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense’s effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today’s faster-tempo game.
Last year, national champ Michigan finished No. 1 with a stop rate of 81.6% in its games against FBS opponents. The top 25 teams in the final 2023 stop rate standings won a total of 249 games, with seven earning conference titles. Great teams find a way to get stops in critical situations.
Stop rate is not an advanced stat and is no substitute for Bill Connelly’s SP+ or other more comprehensive metrics. It’s merely a different method for evaluating success on defense.
The numbers weren’t pretty for the Buffaloes in Year 1 of the Coach Prime era. They allowed 40 or more points in five games, gave up 6.3 yards per play (115th in the FBS) and finished with a stop rate of 57.8% against FBS opponents, which ranked 97th nationally.
This year, it’s a different story. The 6-2 Buffs rank 19th in this week’s updated stop rate standings at 72.7% and look as if they’ll be contenders in the Big 12 title race thanks to a defense that has made real progress in so many ways.
The most obvious area of improvement: Colorado has played pretty darn good defense in the second half of games. This unit is giving up a mere 6.5 points per game after halftime this season, eighth fewest in the FBS, with more takeaways (11) than touchdowns allowed (seven). Livingston has them performing much better on third downs (conversions are down from 47% to 34%) and has injected confidence into a defense that took a lot of heat last year.
“It’s a testament to the guys,” Livingston said earlier this month. “They’ve bought in, they play hard, they play fast. Is it perfect? No, it’s not always perfect. But they give their all, and as long as we get that, I think we’ll like the results.”
When Charles Kelly left at the end of December to become the co-DC at Auburn and Sanders went through the search process, Livingston came well-recommended from several NFL coaches, including Dallas Cowboys DC Mike Zimmer, and brought valuable experience from his stint as defensive backs coach under one of the NFL’s best in Lou Anarumo with the Cincinnati Bengals. Colorado reloaded with 21 new scholarship transfers on defense, and 10 of them have earned starts this season. Their new leader has thrived by building around their strengths.
“The way he coaches, the scheme that he sets up for us, it’s a scheme that all of us love playing,” Colorado safety Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig said earlier this season. “It plays to all of our strengths. I’ve said it before, but when he came in, he came in with no playbook. He said, ‘What do y’all do well? We’re gonna work around that.’ I give coach Rob Livingston all the credit. The players, we go out and execute and play our heart out for him every day.”
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders and receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter gives the Buffaloes a chance to compete with anybody in the Big 12. But if this defense can keep finding a way to get stops, Colorado will be a contender in November.
A few more stop rate updates to note following Week 9:
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Tennessee moved into the No. 1 spot in the stop rate standings ahead of Texas and Ohio State after the latter two had close wins Saturday. The Vols are coming off their bye week and have a stop rate of 81.3% on the year. They’re the only defense in FBS that has held every opponent under 20 points. Last season, Tennessee finished No. 28 in stop rate at 68.6%.
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Alabama bounced back with a dominant day against Missouri and moved back into the top 10 in stop rate. The Tide forced seven punts and intercepted backup QB Drew Pyne three times in the 34-0 rout.
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Undefeated Indiana is still in the top 10 in stop rate after another strong showing in its 31-17 win over Washington. The Hoosiers got eight stops on third downs and two on fourth downs and still haven’t trailed in a game this season. Oregon is closing in on the top 10 as well following its 38-9 rout of No. 20 Illinois.
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Virginia Tech, UConn, Sam Houston and Iowa moved into the top 25 in this week’s standings with Navy, Missouri and Liberty dropping out. Navy’s defense gave up scores on 7 of 11 drives in its 51-14 loss to Notre Dame and slid from 15th to 40th.
Note: All data is courtesy of TruMedia. Games against FCS opponents and end-of-half drives in which the opponent took a knee or ran out the clock were filtered out.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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