ESPN MLB insider Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”
The Chiba Lotte Marines announced Saturday that they will begin the process of posting Roki Sasaki, the Japanese right-hander considered one of the most talented pitchers in the world, paving the way for the 23-year-old to join Major League Baseball in 2025.
The posting system is the method of transfer between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball that makes him available to all 30 teams.
“I am very grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post,” Sasaki said in a statement posted by the Marines on X. “There were many things that did not go well during my five years with the Marines, but I was able to get to this point by concentrating only on baseball, with the support of my teammates, staff, front office, and fans. I will do my best to work my way up from my minor contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in my one and only baseball career and live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me.”
Sasaki, nicknamed “The Monster of the Reiwa Era,” throws a fastball that regularly reaches triple digits and complements it with a frontline split-fingered fastball and a slider.
Because of his age, Sasaki is considered an international amateur free agent and can sign only a minor league contract, which drastically limits how much teams can pay him — and how much Lotte reaps through the associated 20% posting fee. Players who are at least 25 with six years played in a foreign league can sign major league contracts when posted. Had he waited, Sasaki could have sought a deal for hundreds of millions of dollars, similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in late December for 12 years and $325 million. Instead, Sasaki, who asked to be posted last year but was denied by the team, will take a similar path as Shohei Ohtani, the superstar who arrived in MLB at 23 and signed with the Los Angeles Angels for $2.3 million.
The timing of Sasaki’s posting — which has yet to be set, sources said — will determine whether he falls into the 2024 or 2025 international amateur class. When a player is posted, he has a 45-day window to sign with a major league team. Though Sasaki would join an organization on a minor league deal, a team can add him to its major league roster before the 2025 season.
International amateur bonus pools are capped, with the top teams this year able to spend just over $7.1 million, larger-market, higher-spending teams at $4.6 million and the rest in between. Teams can add up to 60% of their allotted pools by trading for other teams’ bonus-pool money. Most teams have spent the majority of their 2024 bonus pools already, with the signing period for international free agents running from Jan. 15 to Dec. 15 annually.
Were the official posting to be delayed until mid-December — it typically takes weeks to complete the process — Sasaki could sign when the 2025 international period opens Jan. 15. Though most teams have commitments lined up for players in that period — the top bonus pools are around $7.5 million and the bottom around $5.1 million — they could trade for international bonus space or free up money by not honoring nonbinding commitments they have made to teenagers from Latin American countries, an infrequent but not unheard of occurrence.
For a player of Sasaki’s talent, teams are likely to do whatever they can to convince him to sign.
Sasaki emerged as a national star in Japan five years ago during Koshien, the national high school baseball tournament that is one of the country’s biggest annual sporting events. Over an eight-day period, he threw more than 500 pitches, including a 12-inning, 21-strikeout, 194-pitch complete game.
In 2022, at 20, Sasaki threw a 19-strikeout perfect game for Lotte and followed in his next start a week later with eight more perfect innings before being pulled. Sasaki’s immense fastball velocity shown during the 2023 World Baseball Classic — he averaged 100.5 mph in Japan’s semifinal start against Mexico — introduced him to an international audience, and though his request to join MLB after the 2023 season went unmet by Lotte, the inevitability of his departure only grew.
Sasaki did not sign his 2024 contract until January, just before Lotte began spring training. Rarely do players hold out from signing their deals until then, and the episode wound up a precursor for what would come after a 10-5 season in which Sasaki posted a 2.35 ERA, struck out 129, walked 32 and gave up two home runs in 111 innings.
Often players are posted when Japanese teams regard them as having “earned” the privilege, multiple sources familiar with past postings said. Though Sasaki has shown flashes of brilliance over his 394⅔ innings — going 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts against 88 walks in 64 starts over four seasons — he would not arrive in MLB with the same sort of résumé as his predecessors.
The rousing success of Japanese players in MLB has been one of the game’s biggest stories of the past decade, with soon-to-be three-time MVP Ohani, Yamamoto, left-handers Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs) and Yusei Kikuchi (free agent), and outfielders Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) and Masataka Yoshida (Boston Red Sox) all going through the posting system. Right-hander Kodai Senga joined the New York Mets without a posting fee after 11 seasons with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.
MLB teams had braced for the possibility that Lotte would hold onto Sasaki for at least two more years, allowing him to reach 25 and for the organization to experience the full financial benefit of the posting. NPB teams control players’ rights for nine seasons before they reach free agency and can operate outside of the posting system. Had Lotte waited until after the 2026 season, it could have received tens of millions of dollars via the posting fee paid by the acquiring team. The Dodgers paid the Orix Blue Wave more than $50 million after signing Yamamoto.
Los Angeles will be linked strongly to Sasaki, but assuming he will go to the Dodgers is premature. While the presence of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles is advantageous, the attention they bring — and the media horde that follows them — adds a different element than other teams.
Throughout the 2024 season, MLB presidents of baseball operations and general managers were fixtures at Sasaki’s starts. Sasaki is close with right-hander Yu Darvish, whose team, the San Diego Padres, figures to be a potential landing spot. Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, though he could also opt for an organization with pedigree and experience (the Chicago Cubs), a team in an international city (the Toronto Blue Jays), one whose past success with Japanese players still resonates (Darvish started his career with the Texas Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing the best out in players might appeal (the Tampa Bay Rays). Plenty of other franchises can — and will — make strong appeals to Sasaki once he is posted.
Unlike a traditional free agency, Sasaki’s comes with a financial ceiling, making him a bargain to all 30 teams. Sasaki’s talent is not in doubt to anyone, even as average fastball velocity this season dropped by two ticks, down to just above 97 mph. Sasaki showed plenty of ability to ramp it up to triple digits when desired, and he could soon develop into the hardest-throwing starter in MLB. His best pitch is still the splitter, whose movement profile makes it unique, even in an MLB where the split has come back into vogue in recent seasons.
Durability is the biggest question with Sasaki. His career high in innings is 129⅓, set in 2022. This year, he made 18 starts after a torn oblique and right arm soreness caused him to sit out about a quarter of his outings.
The recruitment of Sasaki comes amid a free agent period that is expected to move more quickly than recent years and adds a layer of intrigue into an offseason in which Sasaki would join free agent outfielder Juan Soto and right-hander Corbin Burnes as the most coveted players available — at a fraction of the price.
PHILADELPHIA — Mick Abel couldn’t sustain his sublime major league debut and is headed to the minors.
Taijuan Walker is back in Philadelphia’s rotation. And anticipation that prized prospect Andrew Painter could be headed to the Phillies will stretch past the All-Star break.
The Phillies demoted Abel, the rookie right-hander who has struggled since he struck out nine in his major league debut, to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Phillies also recalled reliever Seth Johnson from Lehigh Valley ahead of Friday’s loss to Cincinnati.
The 23-year-old Abel made six starts for the Phillies and went 2-2 with 5.04 ERA with 21 strikeouts and nine walks.
“Mick needed to go down and breathe a little bit,” manager Rob Thomson said. “Just get a little reset. It’s not uncommon.”
A 6-foot-5 right-hander selected 15th overall by the Phillies in the 2020 amateur draft, Abel dazzled against Pittsburgh in May when his nine strikeouts tied a Phillies high for a debut, set by Curt Simmons against the New York Giants on Sept. 28, 1947.
Abel hasn’t pitched beyond the fifth inning in any of his last four starts and was rocked for five runs in 1⅔ innings Wednesday against San Diego.
Abel was 3-12 with a 6.46 ERA last year for Lehigh Valley, walking 78 in 108⅔ innings. He improved to 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in eight minor league starts this year, walking 19 in 46⅓ innings.
“This guy’s had a really good year,” Thomson said. “His poise, his composure is outstanding. He’s really grown. We just need to get back to that. Just attack the zone and get through adversity.”
The Phillies will give Walker another start in Abel’s place against San Francisco. Walker has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen over the past two seasons. He has made eight starts with 11 relief appearances this season and is 3-5 with one save and a 3.64 ERA.
Thomson had said he wanted to give Walker an extended look in the bullpen. Abel’s struggles instead forced Walker — in the third year of a four-year, $72-million contract — back to the rotation. For now.
“He always considers himself a starter and ultimately wants to start,” Thomson said. “He’ll do anything for the ballclub, because he’s that type of guy, but I think he’s generally happy he’s going to go back into a normal routine, normal for him, anyway.”
Wheeler, Suárez and Sánchez have been lights-out in the rotation this year and helped lead the Phillies into first place in the NL East. Jesús Luzardo was a pleasant early season surprise but has struggled over the past two months and gave up six runs in two-plus innings in Friday’s 9-6 loss to the Reds.
“I still have all the confidence in the world in Luzardo,” Thomson said. “Everybody’s going to have bad outings here and there. I think we’re still fine.”
Thomson said he had not made a final decision on who will be the fifth starter after the All-Star break. Painter has two more scheduled starts in Triple-A before the MLB All-Star break and could earn a spot in the rotation. The 22-year-old will not pitch in the All-Star Futures Game as part of the plan to keep him on a hopeful path to the rotation.
Painter hurt an elbow during spring training in 2023 and had Tommy John surgery later that year. He was the 13th overall pick in the 2021 amateur draft and signed for a $3.9 million bonus.
Because of the All-Star break and a quirk in the schedule that has them off on all five Thursdays in July, the Phillies won’t even need a fifth starter after next week until July 22.
Aaron Nola could be back by August as he works his way back from a rib injury. Nola will spend the All-Star break rehabbing in Florida and needs one or two minor league starts before he can rejoin the rotation.
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon was placed on the injured list on Friday with a right calf strain, the team announced before its game against the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s expected to miss “more than a month,” according to manager Craig Counsell.
Taillon, 33, injured his calf on his last wind sprint after a bullpen session on Thursday.
“He’s going to miss a pretty significant amount of time,” Counsell said.
Taillon was 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA in 17 starts for the Cubs this season who just got lefty Shota Imanaga back from a hamstring injury. Now they’ll have to navigate at least the rest of this month without one of their other key starters.
“There’s a little room for us to be flexible right now,” Counsell said citing the upcoming All-Star break. “We’ll use that to our advantage and we’ll go from there.”
The team recalled left-hander Jordan Wicks to take Taillon’s spot on the roster, though he won’t go directly into the rotation. Instead, the Cubs will throw a bullpen game on Saturday against the Cardinals and “go from there,” according to Counsell.
Wicks, 25, went 1-3 with one save, a 4.06 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 12 appearances (11 starts) with Triple-A Iowa this season. In his past five starts dating to May 18, he posted a 1.65 ERA with 20 strikeouts, compared to just three walks, a 0.86 WHIP and a .186 opponent batting average.
The team might also consider a bigger role for righty Chris Flexen who has been fantastic for them out of the bullpen. Flexen, 31, has a 0.62 ERA in 16 games, including a four inning stint late last month.
“He’s a candidate to be stretched out for sure,” Counsell said. “He’s prepared to do a little bit more.”
Cubs brass have already stated they are looking for starting pitching before the trade deadline later this month. Counsell was asked if Taillon’s injury increases that need. He didn’t take the bait.
“The trade deadline isn’t until July 31,” he said. “I’m focused on the next week or 10 games before the All-Star break.”
CLEVELAND — Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas left during the sixth inning of Friday night’s game against the Detroit Tigers due to mild plantar fascia symptoms with his right foot.
Thomas missed 11 games in late May and early June because of plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He is batting .160 this season and .197 (13-for-66) since coming off the injured list on June 9. He does have four homers in his past 10 games.
“We think he’s good. The plantar fasciitis flared up a little bit again and I just didn’t like the way he looked running around the outfield. So rather than take a chance, I got him out of there,” manager Stephen Vogt said after the 2-1 loss to the Tigers.
Thomas also missed five weeks due to a right wrist bone bruise after getting hit by a pitch during the April 8 home opener against the Chicago White Sox.