‘They absolutely hate our guts’: The weird, wonderful games that define Texas-Arkansas
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
At SEC media days in July, Steve Sarkisian inadvertently described a good portion of college football in a single line. “I feel like when you go to Arkansas,” the Texas Longhorns coach said, “I almost at times feel like they hate Texas more than they like themselves. That’s a real rivalry.”
Later that week, Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman confirmed Sarkisian’s take. “We hadn’t played Texas for years,” he said, “and when we played them a couple of years back, it was the most excited our fan base has been in a while. So I would say he’s probably right.”
Houston Nutt can testify. Nutt grew up in Little Rock, Arkansas. He idolized legendary Arkansas coach Frank Broyles and watched him battle Darrell Royal and the Longhorns before playing for the Razorbacks himself.
“When Texas came to play Arkansas, it was this huge, huge thing,” he told ESPN in 2019. “I remember being taught at the age of 6 outside War Memorial Stadium [in Little Rock] how to do the Hook ‘Em Horns Down sign.”
Nutt beat the Horns as the Hogs’ coach, a 27-6 win in the 2000 Cotton Bowl, Arkansas’ first bowl win since 1985. He turned around, and threw the Horns Down to the Arkansas fans.
“It was a sea of red, and they were mostly doing the Hook ‘Em Horns Down,” Nutt said. “What did I do? I can’t help it. I’m right there with ’em.”
Conference realignment has broken countless rivalries through the years. There are no Oklahoma-Oklahoma State games on the schedule; Missouri and Kansas haven’t played since 2011; Cal has traded playing UCLA for playing NC State; Oregon-Oregon State and Washington-Washington State have been moved from the traditional bottom of the schedule to the top; Pitt and West Virginia play only sporadically, as do Oklahoma and Nebraska. But in the “thank God for small favors” department, this latest round of realignment at least reignited a few rivalries to replace the further ones we lost. Longtime Big 8 and Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Missouri played this past Saturday for the first time in 13 years (and celebrated the occasion with a particularly wacky finish), and on Nov. 30 not only will we get our first Texas vs. Texas A&M game since 2011 but it also might have enormous College Football Playoff stakes.
While we wait for Aggies-Horns, however, we get a rivalry game that, for quite a while, outshined Texas-A&M and defined Southwest Conference football. On Saturday, Texas and Arkansas will play for just the fourth time in 20 years and will play as conference rivals for the first time in 33. Most rivalries fit into certain parameters — the dueling heavyweights that split the wins over time, the heavyweight against the aspirant that measures itself by how well it’s faring against the big dog, etc. — but over the course of a few decades, Arkansas-Texas fit into multiple categories. Arkansas was the aggrieved and aspirant underdog for much of the series, but for much of the 1960s, when Royal and Broyles were at the top of their respective games, this was the biggest game in college football. Whichever flavor it takes on at a given time, this game remains spicy.
Texas is 8-1 and listed as a favorite by more than two touchdowns Saturday, while Arkansas is 5-4, having handed Tennessee its only loss of the season but suffered two blowout losses in its past four games. The Razorbacks are volatile underdogs; the Longhorns are SEC title favorites; and, for at least a little while Saturday, Razorback Stadium will be an absolute cauldron. To prepare ourselves, let’s look back at 10 of the most noteworthy games in this revived rivalry’s history.
No. 3 Texas 20, No. 14 Arkansas 0 (1946)
“Steers Trounce Tough Porkers For 5th Victory” was the headline in the Austin American. At 3-0-1, Arkansas was off to its best start in 13 years, and for the first time these teams met as mutually ranked foes. But Texas, also unbeaten and the winner of three of the past four Southwest Conference (SWC) crowns, handled both the moment and the muggy conditions better. Future pro and college football Hall of Famer Bobby Layne threw a pair of touchdown passes — one to Hub Bechtol for 50 yards, one to Jim Canady for 47 — and the Longhorns had scored all their points by halftime. This was a pretty common result: Aside from a mid-1930s run in which Texas lost its way as a program and Arkansas won five of six games between them, UT dominated the early stages of this rivalry, winning 29 of the first 35 battles. It’s been a lot closer since then.
This was the high-water mark for the “Steers,” by the way, as they would fall via road upset to both Rice and TCU, handing Arkansas only its second SWC title. The Razorbacks would head to Dallas, where they endured a 0-0 tie with LSU in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 3 Texas 13, No. 12 Arkansas 12 (1959)
After falling apart under Edwin Price in the mid-1950s, Texas righted the ship by hiring Royal, a former Oklahoma Sooner, to lead the program in 1957. In 1959 the Longhorns embarked on a run of nine top-10 finishes and two national titles in 14 years. Royal won his first two games against Arkansas by a combined 41-6, but second-year head coach Broyles also had things up and running by 1959. The Razorbacks would enjoy eight top-10 finishes in 11 years from 1959 to 1969; in this tight loss, they served notice as to what was coming.
As with much of 1950s college football, this game was decided by disasters. Both teams lost four fumbles; Arkansas recovered a loose ball to set up its first touchdown, but with Texas trailing 12-7 in the third quarter, another future Hall of Famer, Lance Alworth, muffed a punt, which set up a winning touchdown pass from Bart Shirley to Jack Collins. Between 1959 and 1969, eight of 11 Steers-Porkers games would be decided by five or fewer points.
No. 8 Arkansas 14, No. 1 Texas 13 (1964)
Texas won its first national title under Royal in 1963; the Longhorns shined in big games that season, beating No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Navy by a combined 56-13, but they managed only a 17-13 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville. They advanced their winning streak to 15 games early in 1964, but Broyles was building a title-worthy squad of his own by then.
For the third time in four years, this was a matchup of top-10 teams. The most famous members of the 1964 Razorbacks were future Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and future college and NFL title winner Jimmy Johnson, but future Arkansas coach Ken Hatfield made the difference in this one. His 81-yard punt return gave Arkansas a 7-0 halftime lead, and after Texas tied the score in the fourth quarter, Fred Marshall found Bobby Crockett for a 34-yard touchdown to put Arkansas ahead once more. With about a minute left, Ernie Koy scored on a 1-yard plunge; Royal, entirely uninterested in a tie, elected to go for two points and the win, but a pass attempt came up short. Texas’ winning streak was over, and Arkansas would go on to finish 11-0 and score a share of its first national title.
No. 3 Arkansas 27, No. 1 Texas 24 (1965)
By October 1965, Arkansas had extended its winning streak to 16 games, winning its first four games of 1965 by a combined 114-33. But Texas had leapfrogged the Razorbacks to get back to No. 1, thanks in part to a 19-0 win over Oklahoma. That put the chip firmly back on Arkansas’ shoulder.
With the extra dose of motivation — plus, perhaps, some divine intervention: Fayetteville’s First Baptist Church famously posted, “Football is only a game, eternal things are spiritual. Nevertheless, beat Texas” that week — Arkansas raced to an early lead thanks to a pair of Phil Harris fumbles. Martine Bercher recovered the first one in the end zone, then Tommy Trantham took another one 77 yards for a score.
Arkansas went up 20-0 after a Jon Brittenum-to-Bobby Crockett touchdown, but Texas charged back. It was 20-11 by halftime, and David Conway’s 34-yard field goal made it 24-20 Longhorns with just five minutes left. Brittenum scored from a yard out with 1:32 remaining, though, and Arkansas had its second of three straight wins in the series.
The Hogs would run their overall winning streak to 22 before falling to LSU 14-7 in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 1 Texas 15, No. 2 Arkansas 14 (1969)
Don’t you love it when a plan comes together? Texas usually played Oklahoma and Arkansas back-to-back in early October, but Roone Arledge, the innovative head of ABC Sports, had an idea in the offseason. Texas had finished 1968 as the hottest team in the country, winning its last nine games and averaging 37 points per game with offensive coordinator Emory Bellard’s innovative wishbone scheme. Arkansas, meanwhile, finished 10-1 with only a 39-29 loss at Texas. The Longhorns and Razorbacks finished third and sixth, respectively, in the AP poll and headed into 1969, college football’s centennial season, as obvious national title contenders.
According to Terry Frei’s “Horns, Hogs, and Nixon’s Coming,” ABC publicist (and future ESPN analyst) Beano Cook pored over the schedules and determined that Arkansas, Texas and Penn State all had good chances of going unbeaten. “My recommendation involved Penn State and Arkansas finishing the regular season with perfect records and then playing for the national title,” Cook told Frei. “I said we should move Texas-Arkansas to December 6, because I thought Texas might be undefeated then, too.” Arledge told the coaches that former Oklahoma coach and politician Bud Wilkinson could make sure that new President Richard Nixon was likely to attend the game as well. It was going to be a spectacle unlike anything college football had seen.
Sure enough, the Longhorns and Razorbacks both reached December unbeaten (as did Penn State), and Nixon was there in the stands for a game that somehow lived up to all expectations.
With Texas’ offense discombobulated early — the Horns turned the ball over on their first two drives — Arkansas scored on a short Bill Burnett run and, early in the third quarter, a 29-yard catch by star receiver Chuck Dicus. Texas quarterback James Street scored on the first play of the fourth quarter, then scored on a 2-point conversion as well. (Royal decided before the game that he once again wanted to avoid a tie at all costs.)
With the score 14-8, Arkansas drove the length of the field and was on the verge of putting the game away until Danny Lester picked off a Bill Montgomery pass in the end zone. Then came “Right 53 Veer Pass”: On a fourth-and-3 near midfield, Street threw a bomb to Randy Peschel for 44 yards.
#TBT – 1969: Texas defeats Arkansas 15-14.#ThisIsTexas #HookEm pic.twitter.com/xoqn5cbhFm
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 17, 2019
Two plays later, Texas went ahead with a short Jim Bertelsen touchdown. Arkansas drove near field goal range in the final seconds, but Tom Campbell picked off Montgomery to ice the game, and Nixon declared Texas the national champion in the locker room after the game. (This rather annoyed Penn State’s Joe Paterno, whose team was also unbeaten.)
College football’s explosion as a television product can be ascribed to countless things, but ABC’s innovative approach to broadcasting, followed by a couple of all-time classics — this and 1971 Oklahoma-Nebraska, to name two — in short succession certainly didn’t hurt.
No. 1 Texas 42, No. 4 Arkansas 7 (1970)
The sequel often fails to live up to the billing. Almost exactly a year after the 1969 classic, Texas was riding a 29-game winning streak, while 9-1 Arkansas was ranked fourth in the AP poll and looking for revenge on national television. It didn’t quite work out.
Texas rushed for 464 yards — Bertelsen and Steve Worster combined for 315 on their own, with five of the Longhorns’ six touchdowns — and picked off Montgomery three times. After a goal-line stand by the Longhorns’ defense prevented Arkansas from tying the score early on, the floodgates opened.
The tide had again turned in the rivalry. Arkansas would finally get some measure of revenge the next year with a win in Little Rock, but after winning four of seven over the Horns between 1960-66, the Hogs won only once between 1966-79.
No. 8 Texas 28, No. 3 Arkansas 21 (1978)
A generation ended when both Royal and Broyles retired after matching 5-5-1 seasons in 1976. They both ended up hiring their younger replacements — 38-year old Fred Akers at UT, 40-year old Lou Holtz at Arkansas — as their schools’ respective athletic directors.
Both led immediate rebounds. Holtz won 30 games, Akers won 29, and both schools finished in the AP top 12 each year from 1977 to 1979. In 1978, Akers’ Longhorns played a unique role, too: spoiler. They welcomed unbeaten Arkansas to Austin and ended the Hogs’ 11-game winning streak. Two Randy McEachern touchdown passes in the final minute of the first half turned a tie into a 20-7 Texas lead, and when Arkansas charged back to take the lead, Johnny “Lam” Jones caught McEachern’s third TD pass, and Johnnie Johnson picked off one pass and broke up another on a fourth down to seal the win. This was the first of four straight upsets in the series, with the lower-ranked team winning every year from 1978 to 1981. My favorite rivalries are the ones that make no sense.
Arkansas 42, No. 1 Texas 11 (1981)
And now for maybe the most shocking result in the history of the rivalry. Akers’ Longhorns entered the 1981 game No. 1 in the country, having just blown out Barry Switzer’s Oklahoma 34-14 to move to 4-0. Arkansas, meanwhile, had fallen out of the AP rankings two weeks earlier after a road loss to an awful TCU team that would finish 2-7-2. Surely a blowout was in store, right?
This was indeed a blowout, but not the one anyone expected. Two fumbles and a safety from an airmailed punt snap gave Arkansas a quick 15-0 lead, and the Longhorns never got closer. The Hogs led 25-3 at halftime and 39-3 after three quarters; Texas actually outgained the home team 421-323, but seven turnovers sabotaged all efforts. A turnaround in the series? Not so much. The last two Akers-Holtz battles ended up a combined 64-10 in favor of the team in burnt orange. But this one was an awfully big thumb in the eye, and it would prevent the Horns from winning a national title — they ended up second in the polls behind Clemson.
Arkansas 14, Texas 13 (1991)
“Ain’t no rematch. Best thing of all, ain’t gonna be no rematch.” That’s Arkansas head coach Jack Crowe, celebrating a Hogs win in the final SWC matchup between the two rivals. He had just weathered one of the silliest games in the series to secure permanent (well, permanent-ish) bragging rights. Arkansas led 14-0 at halftime after touchdowns from Ron Dickerson Jr. and Kerwin Price, but a 14-yard Phil Brown touchdown made it 14-7 heading into the fourth quarter, and a 55-yard burst from Brown tied the score. Or at least, it should have: The Longhorns missed the PAT, then missed a 39-yard field goal attempt with 3:45 left.
The teams weren’t particularly memorable, even if the game was. Crowe’s Razorbacks went 6-6 in their last season in the SWC, while David McWilliams’ fifth and final Texas team went 5-6. The teams had weathered ups and downs, splitting the previous six meetings and producing zero top-10 finishes from 1984 to 1991 as the SWC wobbled through controversies and discontent. In 1990, the SEC announced it was adding Arkansas as part of an expansion to 10 teams; the plan had originally included adding not only the Hogs but also Texas and Texas A&M, but the state legislature intervened, and only Arkansas was on its way out the door. So was Crowe: Broyles fired him (and then tried to get away with announcing he’d resigned) after Arkansas began its SEC tenure with a 10-3 loss to The Citadel.
No. 7 Texas 22, Arkansas 20 (2004)
Since 1991, this has basically been a series of pent-up aggression: Whichever rival takes an early lead when they meet just keeps wailing away for a while. Arkansas won two bowl meetings (the 2000 Cotton Bowl and the 2014 Texas Bowl) by a combined 58-13, Texas won a home game in Austin 52-10 in 2008, and Arkansas won a home game in Fayetteville, Steve Sarkisian’s second game in charge at Texas, by a score of 40-21 in 2021.
A 2003-04 home-and-home series produced some drama, though. Arkansas upset No. 6 Texas by a 38-28 margin in 2003, using an early 21-0 run to build some space, getting 217 combined rushing yards from Cedric Cobbs and quarterback Matt Jones and scoring every time it needed to down the stretch.
But with a young quarterback by the name of Vince Young taking over for UT in 2004, the Longhorns got some revenge. Texas built a quick 9-0 advantage with a safety from a bombed punt snap and a 49-yard TD from Young to David Thomas. And from there, it was the Cedric Benson show: The star running back produced 201 yards from scrimmage and scored via both ground and air. Texas held a 22-17 lead into the fourth quarter, and after forcing an Arkansas field goal with 9:58 left, the Longhorns’ defense forced three consecutive turnovers to ice the win. Arkansas would stumble to a disappointing 5-6 record, while Mack Brown’s Longhorns would finish 11-1 before winning the national title a year later.
The most recent Hogs-Horns game might turn out to have been pretty useful. “I don’t know what Darrell Royal did to Arkansas back in the day,” Sarkisian joked with reporters this week, “but they absolutely hate our guts. And I think we learned that the first time around when we went there.”
Texas knows what it’s walking into, at least. They know to expect a Horns Down or two, though we’ll have to wait and see if Sam Pittman gets in on the act.
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Kiley McDaniel
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Kiley McDaniel
ESPN MLB Insider
- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
Major League Baseball’s trade market is ever evolving, and to keep you updated, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have put together a list of potential trade candidates that will be updated regularly depending on their performance — and that of the teams which could be involved in potential deals leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
Some of the players on the list are unlikely to be dealt but at least are being discussed in potential deals. Others might not be on the list now but will be added in the future should their team’s fortunes change. Either way, this will be the most up-to-date accounting of where MLB’s trade market stands.
Note: Players are ranked by value for their new team if traded, not likelihood of being dealt
Chance of trade: 10%
Bregman has been an elite big league hitter since he entered the league in 2016 but has leaned more into power this year, with his highest isolated power since 2019. Most of his underlying power indicators (barrel rate, maximum exit velo, average launch angle and hard hit rate) are at career highs. His $40 million salary — and the chance to opt into two more years at $40 million annually — significantly shortens the list of teams that would take on his deal.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Detroit, New York Yankees, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 25%
Duran had a huge breakout season in 2024, posting the seventh-best WAR in the majors at 6.7. He overperformed his underlying metrics, though — i.e., had some lucky outcomes — and those metrics have regressed a bit this year. Now he’s underperforming them — he has been unlucky — so his true talent is somewhere south of that star-level 6.7 figure but better than the roughly 2 WAR (commensurate with a solid regular) he’s on pace for this season.
Best fits: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia
Chance of trade: 60%
Alcantara was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the NL Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He has been tinkering this season to try to get his pitch mix and locations right in hopes of regaining his former glory. It is starting to look as though he is turning the corner to become a midrotation starter (or better?) once again as he has posted a 2.74 ERA in four June outings. The Marlins could hold on to him until the winter, when teams like Baltimore would be more inclined to acquire him and the final two years of his contract.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston, Boston, Toronto, Arizona, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore
Chance of trade: 20%
Peralta has been a steady presence for years, averaging 140 innings pitched with a 3.49 ERA over the past four seasons. He’s on track to do that again, with his heavily used fastball coming in at a career-high average velo of 94.9 mph this season. He has an ultra-cheap $8 million option for 2026.
Best fits: Boston, Houston, Toronto, St. Louis, Arizona, San Diego, Baltimore
Chance of trade: 50%
Suarez is in a contract year and, despite turning 34 years old before the trade deadline, is sitting near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he’s still an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t offload their free agents-to-be, Suarez could move because they have Jordan Lawlar raking in Triple-A and primed to take over at third.
Best fits: Detroit, Milwaukee, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 40%
Lugo has posted mid-3.00s or lower ERAs for five seasons despite having below-average fastball velocity and good-not-great strikeout rates. His ability to strand runners and limit hard contact comes in part due to his nine different pitches. With a Nathan Eovaldi-type contract awaiting Lugo in free agency, Kansas City could opt to move him, especially if Cole Ragans’ injured shoulder doesn’t improve.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 30%
Gallen was excellent for the past three seasons but now, in a contract year, is posting career-worst numbers in almost every category. His stuff looks pretty similar, but he’s allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen said the team does not plan to deal away players at the deadline, but if Arizona doesn’t make a run, it could reap a huge return with all of its impending free agents.
Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs
8. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 30%
Kelly doesn’t have big raw stuff, posting the second-lowest average fastball velocity among pitchers with 90 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and off-speed stuff. He was a stalwart in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA.
Best fits: Toronto, Boston, St. Louis, Houston, Chicago Cubs
9. Josh Naylor, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 30%
Naylor is batting over .300 this year as a lefty-hitting first baseman in a contract year on pace for about 20 homers. Naylor faces left-handed pitchers more often than the next player on the list but hasn’t been particularly good at it. His on-base skills and lack of strikeouts make him an especially attractive acquisition candidate for postseason contenders.
Best fits: Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, Texas
Chance of trade: 85%
O’Hearn is having an out-of-nowhere career year, hitting over .300 (and with the underlying metrics to support that) along with being on pace for a career high in homers. He doesn’t face lefty pitchers much at all, and his splits suggest that he shouldn’t.
Best fits: Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, Texas
Chance of trade: 25%
Ozuna is a stone-cold DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular-season experience defensively. Ozuna is also in a contract year, but his power numbers are down a notch from his standout .302 average and 39-homer performance last season. His on-base percentage remains among the highest of potential trade candidates. If anyone is moving from Atlanta, he’s the likeliest candidate, with free agency beckoning.
Best fits: San Diego, Seattle, Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, Cleveland, Boston
Chance of trade: 40%
Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff headlined by a fastball that averages 100.2 mph and a splinker that sits at 97.5 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so he’d demand a big trade package.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas
Chance of trade: 20%
Clase was nearly unhittable last season, but his numbers have regressed this season. He has issued more walks and gotten fewer ground balls while allowing more damage on his cutter that averages 99.0 mph — in part due to more center-cut locations. Under contract for less than $30 million through 2028, he would bring a big return to Cleveland.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas
Chance of trade: 15%
The Mountain is back from Tommy John surgery and looking like his former self. A dominant June — 8 innings, 1 hit, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA — has seen him induce more popups than line drives allowed. He has another two years before free agency, and with the Orioles planning on contending between now and then, landing him will take more than most teams are willing to give.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas
Chance of trade: 70%
Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in a number of ways, but his power numbers are trending up this season and are at their best since 2021.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Cleveland, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 60%
McMahon is on pace to keep his four-year 20-homer streak alive, with above-average power, patience and third-base defense, but a more middling contact rate and baserunning value. He has two years and $32 million remaining on his contract after this season.
Best fits: New York Yankees, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle
Chance of trade: 60%
Fairbanks raised his slot a bit this year, and now his 97.1 mph fastball has more cutting action and his slurvy slider has more depth, with both pitches playing a notch better than they did last season. He has a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should wind up in the $10 million range.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas
Chance of trade: 35%
You have probably heard this story before, but Chapman is left-handed and his superpower is that he throws really hard (averages just under 100 mph) and throws that heater a lot (over 75% of the time). He’s 37 years old, and he’s still dominant.
Best fits: New York Mets, Philadelphia, Detroit
Chance of trade: 90%
Robert has been extremely unlucky with ball-in-play results this season, so that could turn around at any point. He remains a strong defender and baserunner. But the .185/.267/.305 line is unsightly, and his trade value has cratered over the past two seasons. He has a pair of $20 million-a-year club options that the acquiring team will be hesitant to exercise absent a turnaround.
Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, Cleveland, New York Mets, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 45%
Ward comes with an additional year of team control after this season, and his underlying numbers suggest he is still largely the same hitter as last year, when he posted a .246 average and 25 homers.
Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Seattle, San Francisco, Kansas City
Chance of trade: 30%
Arenado is around a career best in strikeout rate, and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.
Best fits: New York Yankees, Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle
Chance of trade: 40%
Severino tunnels his fastball/sinker/sweeper combo well to limit damage, but because he has a middling strikeout rate, his upside is limited to a No. 3/No. 4 starter. Teams are intrigued by his road numbers, which are exceptional: 0.93 ERA in 38.2 innings over six starts without a home run allowed. They are not so intrigued by his contract, which goes two more years at $47 million.
Best fits: Toronto, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore, New York Mets
23. Ryan Helsley, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of trade: 30%
Scouting report: Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year now but has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard — with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Arizona, New York Yankees, Detroit
Chance of trade: 30%
Mahle was thriving after returning from his 2023 Tommy John surgery, looking like a third or fourth starter despite a 2.34 ERA fueled by a very favorable stranded runner rate and BABIP. But he’s currently on the injured list with right shoulder fatigue. Should he return healthy, he’ll jump up this list.
Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Boston, Chicago Cubs
25. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Chance of trade: 75%
Eflin is in a contract year, and his ERA has spiked from 3.59 last year to 5.46 this season, though his underlying numbers are still pretty solid. He’s more of an innings-eating No. 4 starter type now than he was during his breakout 2023 season, but there’s still some value to a contender.
Best fits: Houston, San Diego, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta
Chance of trade: 80%
Garcia averaged 30 homers in 2021 through 2024, but he has fallen off since his 2023 career year. It’s worth noting that per xwOBA, he has been the 17th-most unlucky hitter in the big leagues this year, and he has another year of team control, so some teams could see a trade as a good value opportunity.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cleveland, San Diego, San Francisco
27. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Chance of trade: 15%
The No. 10 pick in 2020 transitioned to relief this season and has found some success, similar to other highly drafted college lefties including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velo is up 1.5 mph in the new role, so this might be where he fits long term, and trading him away could fetch a hefty return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter.
Best fits: New York Mets, Arizona, Baltimore, St. Louis, Minnesota, New York Yankees
Chance of trade: 35%
If the Red Sox do punt on this year, Buehler will have plenty of suitors in spite of his mediocre numbers this season. His postseason bona fides are obvious, and his sinker and slider have both played this season despite his fastball and curveball getting tagged. Starter, reliever, whatever: October is Buehler’s time.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Houston, Toronto, San Diego
Chance of trade: 65%
Martinez took the qualifying offer of $21.05 million and might have a bigger market this winter after pitching almost exclusively as a starter, though he’ll turn 35 years old later this season and looks like a fourth starter now.
Best fits: Houston, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto
30. Erick Fedde, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of trade: 50%
Fedde’s strikeout and walk numbers have regressed from his breakout 2024 season (after coming back from a stint in the KBO), but he’s allowing less damage on batted balls to keep him in the rotation.
Best fits: San Diego, Toronto, Houston
Nos. 31-50
31. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
32. Edward Cabrera, SP, Miami Marlins
33. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
34. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
35. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
36. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
37. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
38. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
39. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
40. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
41. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
42. Chris Martin, RP, Texas Rangers
43. Mike Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
44. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
45. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Emilio Pagan, RP, Cincinnati Reds
47. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
48. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
49. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
50. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Former All-Star pitcher Noah Syndergaard has signed a minor league deal with the Chicago White Sox, the team confirmed Tuesday.
Syndergaard, 32, hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023 when he appeared in 18 games split between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians. He has a career 3.71 ERA over the course of eight seasons, mostly with the New York Mets where he spent the first six years in the big leagues.
The latter half of his career has been plagued by injuries including a right elbow ailment which required Tommy John surgery in 2020 as well as lat and finger issues more recently.
Syndergaard finished fourth in rookie of the year voting for the Mets in 2015, helping them reach the World Series. He followed that up with an All-Star appearance in 2016 when he compiled a 2.60 ERA.
Post Tommy John surgery he bounced around his final couple of seasons in the big leagues, playing for the Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians before missing all of last year.
Syndergaard will report to the White Sox spring facility in Glendale, Arizona, before taking next steps.
After setting the loss record last season, Chicago has the second-worst record this year. Only the Rockies are worse. The White Sox are in the midst of a major rebuild, with three of their starters 25 years old or younger.
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