The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
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4:43
Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
The Royal Family watched an RAF flypast from the balcony of Buckingham Palace to mark the start of four days of celebrations for the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day.
The thousands of people gathered in front of the palace gates and along The Mall cheered, clapped and waved flags as the spectacular Red Arrows red, white and blue display flew overhead.
The King and Queen, who were joined by the Prince and Princess of Wales, their three children Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis, and other senior royals waved from the balcony before the band played God Save The King.
Since Queen Elizabeth II’s death in 2022, it is the first landmark VE Day commemoration event without any of the royals who waved to crowds from the balcony in 1945.
Image: The Red Arrows fly over Buckingham Palace. Pic: PA
Image: Members of the Royal Family wave to crowds. Pic: PA
The King earlier stood to salute as personnel from NATO allies, including the US, Germany and France, joined 1,300 members of the UK armed forces in a march towards Buckingham Palace.
Crowds gathered near the Cenotaph – draped in a large Union Flag for the first time since the war memorial was unveiled by King George V more than a century ago in 1920 – fell silent as Big Ben struck 12.
Actor Timothy Spall then read extracts from Sir Winston Churchill’s stirring victory speech on 8 May 1945 as the wartime prime minister told cheering crowds: “This is not victory of a party or of any class. It’s a victory of the great British nation as a whole.”
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Image: King Charles takes the salute from the military procession for the 80th anniversary of VE Day. Pic: PA
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1:19
Actor Timothy Spall has kicked off the VE Day celebrations by reading Winston Churchill’s famous speech, first read on 8 May, 1945.
The military parade was officially started by Normandy RAF veteran Alan Kennett, 100, who was in a cinema in the north German city of Celle when the doors burst open as a soldier drove a jeep into the venue and shouted: “The war is over.”
The King’s Troop Royal Horse Artillery led the march down Whitehall, through Admiralty Arch and up The Mall, while representatives of the Ukrainian military were cheered and clapped by crowds.
More than 30 Second World War veterans are attending celebrations in the capital, which include a tea party inside Buckingham Palace.
Image: William, Prince of Wales, Prince George, Prince Louis and Princess Charlotte. Pic: Reuters
Image: King Charles takes the salute from the military procession. Pic: PA
The King watched in front of Buckingham Palace along with the Queen, Sir Keir Starmer, other senior royals and Second World War veterans.
It is the monarch’s first public appearance since Prince Harry said his father will not speak to him and he does not know how much longer his father has left.
Image: Crowds cheered members of the Ukrainian military. Pic: AP
Image: The Cenotaph on Whitehall is draped in the Union flag. Pic: PA
But a Palace aide insisted the Royal Family were “fully focused” on VE Day events after Harry’s shock BBC interview after losing a legal challenge over his security arrangements on Friday.
The King and Queen were said to be “looking forward” to the week’s commemorations and hoped “nothing will detract or distract” from celebrating.
Image: Members of the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment pass down The Mall. Pic: AP
Image: Members of the public make their way down The Mall
Prince Louis fiddled with his hair in the breezy conditions, while Kate sat next to veteran Bernard Morgan, who earlier appeared to show her some vintage photographs.
Monday is the first of four days of commemorations of the moment then prime minister Sir Winston declared that all German forces had surrendered at 3pm on 8 May 1945.
Image: Thousands of people lined the streets. Pic: AP
Image: A young boy on the Mall
Image: People line the Mall. Pic: AP
It marked the end of almost six years of war in Europe, in which 384,000 British soldiers and 70,000 civilians were killed, and sparked two days of joyous celebrations in London.
Sir Keir said in an open letter to veterans: “VE Day is a chance to acknowledge, again, that our debt to those who achieved it can never fully be repaid.”
Image: A street party in Seaford. Pic: Reuters
Along with the events in the capital, people are celebrating across the UK with street parties, tea parties, 1940s fancy dress-ups and gatherings on board Second World War ships.
The Palace of Westminster, the Shard, Lowther Castle in Penrith, Manchester Printworks, Cardiff Castle and Belfast City Hall are among hundreds of buildings which will be lit up from 9pm on Tuesday.
A new display of almost 30,000 ceramic poppies at the Tower of London will form another tribute.
On Thursday, a service at Westminster Abbey will begin with a national two-minute silence before Horse Guards Parade holds a live celebratory concert to round off the commemorations.
Churches and cathedrals across the country will ring their bells as a collective act of thanksgiving at 6.30pm, echoing the sounds that swept across the country in 1945, the Church of England said.
Pubs and bars have also been granted permission to stay open for longer to mark the anniversary two extra hours past 11pm.
The family of a 14-year-old boy who died in an industrial fire in Gateshead have described him as a “kind, caring and loving boy” who was “loved by all that met him”.
Northumbria Police said on Monday that two more 12-year-old boys had also been arrested and bailed.
Layton died at the scene at Fairfield industrial park on Friday evening.
In a statement, his family said: “From the minute he was born it was obvious the character he would turn out to be.
“Layton was your typical 14-year-old lad, a cheeky, happy lad. Despite his cheeky side Layton had an absolute heart of gold and would do anything for anyone.
“He was loved by all that met him, and it showed.
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“He was a family boy that loved his mam and sisters more than anything in the world.
“Layton, we love you more than any words can ever explain. You will be missed more than you’ll ever know. Our bright and beautiful boy.”
They added: “As a family we would like to say a massive thank you to all that helped in finding Layton.”
Image: The aftermath of the fire at Fairfield industrial park in Bill Quay, Gateshead
Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, from Northumbria Police, urged people not to use social media to speculate on the incident or name any of those arrested.
“Circulation of malicious communications is classed as a criminal offence and those who choose to be involved could face prosecution,” she warned.
“It’s also important to note that anyone suspected of a crime must not be named publicly for legal reasons and those who are under 18 have anonymity.
Anyone with information is asked to get in touch with Northumbria Police online or via 101.
Donald Trump’s plan to put a 100% tariff on films made outside the US could be “a knock-out blow” to the sector in the UK, a broadcasting union has said.
The president has said he will target films made elsewhere as part of his ongoing tariff war, to save what he has called the “dying” movie industry in the US.
In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Mr Trump said he had authorised government departments to put a 100% tariff “on any and all movies coming into our country that are produced in foreign lands”, and described the issue as a “national security threat”.
Image: Donald Trump says the film industry in the US is ‘dying’. Pic: AP
Responding to his post, Philippa Childs, head of the Broadcasting, Entertainment, Communications and Theatre Union (BECTU), said such a move could seriously damage the UK film sector – which is “only just recovering” from the impact of the pandemic, when many productions were delayed or cancelled.
“The UK is a world leader in film and TV production, employing thousands of talented workers, and this is a key growth sector in the government’s industrial strategy,” she said.
“These tariffs, coming after COVID and the recent slowdown, could deal a knock-out blow to an industry that is only just recovering and will be really worrying news for tens of thousands of skilled freelancers who make films in the UK.”
Ms Childs called on the government to “move swiftly to defend this vital sector, and support the freelancers who power it, as a matter of essential national economic interest”.
Image: The industry has been hit by the Hollywood strikes in 2023, as well as the pandemic. Pic: gotpap/STAR MAX/IPx 2023/ AP
It is unclear how the tariff scheme would affect international productions, such as the upcoming Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which is filmed in the US as well as other countries around the world.
Much of the 2023 box office smash Barbie was filmed at the Warner Bros Leavesden studios, in Hertfordshire, as was Wonka and 2022 hit The Batman, while the vast majority of James Bond films were shot at Pinewood Studios, in Berkshire.
It was also unclear whether the duties will apply to films on streaming platforms as well as those that are released in cinemas.
Netflix shares were down 2.5% in early trading and Disney, Warner Bros Discovery and Universal-owner Comcast (which owns Sky News) fell between 0.7% and 1.7%.
The share prices of theatre operators Cinemark and IMAX were down 5.4% and 5.9%, respectively.
Kirsty Bell, chief executive of production company Goldfinch, said Mr Trump was “right to address the fact that there’s a decline in the entertainment sector” – but the issue is not foreign films taking precedence over domestic films.
“It’s that, firstly, films are cheaper to make overseas, because of lack of tax credits in certain places… the unions, the lower cost of labour, and buying budgets have been drastically reduced over two years, all driven by the change in viewing habits.”
She also highlighted that people aren’t going to the cinema as much and that the industry is “entirely changed” due to the rise of social media platforms and content creators.
“The answer is not tariffs if he’s trying to kick-start the industry in Hollywood,” she said. “It’s developing an ecosystem for film-making that is entirely different to what has been before. There’s seismic changes in how the entertainment industry is structured needing to happen.”
A government spokesperson said talks on an economic deal between the US and the UK were ongoing – “but we are not going to provide a running commentary on the details of live discussions or set any timelines because it is not in the national interest”.
The latest tariff announcement from Mr Trump is part of a wider crackdown on US imports.
US film and television production has been hampered in recent years, with setbacks from the Hollywood strikes of 2023 and the recent wildfires in the Los Angeles area, as well as the pandemic.
Last year, the UK government introduced the Independent Film Tax Credit, which allows productions costing up to £15m to benefit from an increased tax relief of 53%.