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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

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Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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UK weather: New ice warnings issued and runway closure causes travel delays – as temperatures set to reach -16C

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UK weather: New ice warnings issued and runway closure causes travel delays - as temperatures set to reach -16C

The Met Office has put yellow weather warnings over snow and ice in place from this afternoon covering much of the UK.

It had a number of yellow warnings in place on Thursday across the country, but most were initially set to expire by 11am, with only a snow and ice alert in Scotland remaining until midnight.

But it has now updated its map to show yellow ice warnings for much of the Midlands, North West England, Eastern England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 4pm on Thursday until 10am on Friday, while the snow and ice warning for Scotland has been extended to 10am on Friday.

Weather warnings for Thursday
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Met office weather warnings for Thursday Pic: Met Office

Weather warnings for Friday. Pic: Met office
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Weather warnings for Friday. Pic: Met office

A separate yellow warning for ice is in force from 3am on Friday until 11am, covering South West England and parts of South Wales.

It comes as large swathes of the country deal with disruption caused by the freezing weather, with temperatures expected to fall as low as -16C on Thursday night both in the northeast of England and Scotland, the Met Office has said.

Manchester Airport has warned passengers of delays after temporarily closing its runways due to “significant levels of snow”.

In a statement on Thursday morning, the airport said: “Our runways are temporarily closed due to significant levels of snow, as our teams work hard to clear them as quickly as possible.”

The airport announced its runways had reopened at 10am, but warned “as a result of the earlier closure, some departures and arrivals may still experience delays”.

“The safety of our passengers remains our top priority. Thank you for your understanding and patience,” it added.

Commuters wait for a tram on a snow-covered platform in Manchester.
Pic: Reuters
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Commuters wait for a tram on a snow-covered platform in Manchester. Pic: Reuters

Snow covers a vehicle in Buxton.
Pic: Reuters
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Snow covers a vehicle in Buxton. Pic: Reuters

The A30 in Cornwall was closed westbound between the A3047 junctions Avers and Tolvaddon on Thursday morning following a multiple vehicle collision, according to National Highways, after an amber warning for snow and ice was in place yesterday.

It said at 8.45am that emergency services were at the scene while traffic built on the roads.

Devon and Cornwall Police and Devon County Council Highways had earlier warned of roads closing and motorists being stationary for “long periods of time” in a joint statement.

Snow ploughs became stuck in queues of traffic caused by “minor incidents”, the statement added.

All of the warnings in place across the country are yellow, meaning there is a danger of injury from slips and falls and some disruption to travel expected.

A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for the following regions from 4pm on Thursday to 10am on Friday:

  • East Midlands
  • North West England
  • Northern Ireland
  • Wales
  • West Midlands

Get the forecast for your area

Icicles hang from the Killhope Lead Mine in Durham.
Pic: PA
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Icicles hang from the Killhope Lead Mine in Durham. Pic: PA

Other yellow warnings which covered much of the country on Thursday morning have now expired.

They included a warning for snow and ice affecting Cornwall, much of Wales and parts of northwest England until 11am, an ice warning for parts of southern England and south-east Wales until 10.30am and a fog warning for Northern Ireland until 9am.

Menston, West Yorkshire
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Menston, West Yorkshire

Snow covers the Killhope Lead Mine in Durham.
Pic: PA
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Snow covers the Killhope Lead Mine in Durham. Pic: PA

Travel disruption to road and rail services are likely on Thursday in the warning areas, as well as the potential for accidents in icy places, the forecaster said.

As icy conditions persist, motorists are being urged to stick to major roads that are most likely to have been gritted.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

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Stuart Hogg: Former Scotland rugby captain given community payback and non-harassment orders for domestic abuse

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Stuart Hogg: Former Scotland rugby captain given community payback and non-harassment orders for domestic abuse

Former Scotland rugby captain Stuart Hogg has been handed a community payback order and a non-harassment order for abusing his estranged wife over the course of five years.

Hogg, 32, last year pleaded guilty to a single charge of domestic abuse of his ex-partner, Gillian Hogg, between 2019 and 2024.

The sportsman admitted shouting and swearing, tracking her movements and sending her messages which were alarming and distressing in nature.

At Selkirk Sheriff Court on Thursday, he was given a community payback order with one year of supervision and a five-year non-harassment order.

Sheriff Peter Paterson warned Hogg the sentence was an “alternative to custody”.

Former Scotland rugby captain Stuart Hogg arrives at Selkirk Sheriff Court.
Pic: PA
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Hogg arriving at Selkirk Sheriff Court on Thursday. Pic: PA

Former Scotland rugby captain Stuart Hogg leaves Selkirk Sheriff Court.
Pic: PA
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Hogg leaving court. Pic: PA


A court heard how he berated Mrs Hogg for “not being fun” after going on drinking binges with his colleagues, and once sent more than 200 text messages to her in the space of a few hours which caused her to suffer a panic attack.

Hogg had been due to stand trial at Selkirk Sheriff Court last November, but pleaded guilty to the abuse which was said to have taken place at various locations including Hawick in the Scottish Borders and Bearsden in East Dunbartonshire.

Former Scotland rugby captain Stuart Hogg arrives at Jedburgh Sheriff Court to be sentenced after he admitted abusing his estranged wife over the course of five years. Picture date: Thursday December 5, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story COURTS Hogg. Photo credit should read: Owen Humphreys/PA Wire
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Hogg arriving at Jedburgh Sheriff Court in December. Pic: PA

At Jedburgh Sheriff Court in December, he was initially handed the five-year non-harassment order and fined £600 for breaching bail conditions by repeatedly contacting Mrs Hogg last June.

The former Glasgow Warriors and Exeter Chiefs, who plays for French club Montpellier, now lives abroad and is said to be in the process of getting a divorce.

Stuart and Gillian Hogg in 2017. Pic: Stuart Wallace/Shutterstock
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Stuart and Gillian Hogg in 2017. Pic: Stuart Wallace/Shutterstock

Prosecutor Drew Long said the couple moved to Exeter in 2019 with their three young children, who were all under three, but Hogg’s behaviour “deteriorated” as he went out partying.

Mr Long said Hogg would “shout and swear and accuse Mrs Hogg of not being fun” for not joining in drinking, and that her family “noticed a change in her”.

In 2022, Mrs Hogg went on a night out and was bombarded with text messages from the rugby player which “caught the attention of the people she was with”, the prosecutor said.

The following year, the couple moved to Hawick in the Borders, but Hogg used an app to track his wife and “questioned her whereabouts” while she was dropping the children off.

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In 2023, she decided to leave the sportsman and sought advice from a domestic abuse service.

Mr Long said in September of that year, Hogg “sent in excess of 200 texts in a few hours despite being asked to leave her alone”, which led to Mrs Hogg having a panic attack.

On 21 February 2024, police were called due to Hogg “shouting and swearing”.

He was taken into custody and thereafter placed on a bail order stipulating not to contact Mrs Hogg or to enter the family home.

The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) said “no one should have to live in fear of a partner or former partner”.

Lynne Barrie, procurator fiscal for Lothian and Borders, added: “Stuart Hogg has now been convicted and held accountable for subjecting his estranged wife to years of domestic abuse.”

Hogg made his Scotland debut in 2012 and went on to make 100 appearances for his country.

He also made two appearances for the British and Irish Lions and was made an MBE for services to the sport in last year’s New Year Honours list.

Following his guilty plea, Mrs Hogg thanked all those who had shown support.

She praised her family and friends, and also singled out those who had given her “a hi, a smile, a hug or even just a look to show they care”.

Mrs Hogg said she had thought “long and hard” about posting on Facebook, but added: “Now, it’s time to start my next chapter.

“To move on and to keep showing my kids every day that strength comes from unconditional love and support around you, and even when it hurts, love wins.”

Following the court case, Scottish Women’s Aid said coercive control – including stalking and micromanaging how women mother, where they go, what they wear and what they’re allowed to say – can be “more traumatic than a physical assault”.

Dr Marsha Scott, chief executive of the charity, added: “The sentence in this case, like so many handed down in Scotland, hardly meets the test of being proportionate when compared to the harm this man has caused.”

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Liz Truss sends cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over claims she ‘crashed the economy’

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Liz Truss sends cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over claims she 'crashed the economy'

Liz Truss’ lawyers have sent a cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over his claims she “crashed the economy”.

The letter says Sir Keir’s continued claim the former Conservative prime minister crashed the economy with the September 2022 mini budget is defamatory and will “likely continue to cause serious harm to her reputation”.

It focuses on the Labour leader’s claims made in June last year during the general election campaign, and says accusations she crashed the economy were made with the purpose of damaging public opinion of Ms Truss as she stood as a parliamentary candidate.

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Ms Truss, who stepped down as prime minister in under two months in charge, lost the South West Norfolk seat she had held since 2010 to Labour’s Terry Jermy in last year’s election.

Sir Keir’s spokesman said the prime minister has no plans to “moderate his language” based on the letter.

He also questioned whether Ms Truss will be writing to the “millions of people up and down the country” who shared Sir Keir’s view.

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The letter also says it is “false” to claim the mini budget crashed the economy and provides details of a definition of “crash of the economy” by Dr Andrew Lilico, an expert from right-wing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs and managing director of economic consultancy Europe Economics.

Market movement following the mini budget did not constitute a “crash”, the letter says, and accuses Sir Keir of displaying an “ignorance of basic economics” by doing so.

LETTER
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The letter calls for Sir Keir Starmer to stop saying Liz Truss crashed the economy

Following the mini budget, which included £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, the UK government’s long-term borrowing costs rose sharply by 0.3 percentage points over a day.

The pound then fell to record lows against the dollar, and there was another sharp rise in the cost of long-term government borrowing by 0.5 percentage points after then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng hinted there would be further tax cuts.

This led to rising mortgage rates, with hundreds of products withdrawn, and an impact on UK pension funds.

Ms Truss’ lawyers blamed the interest rate changes on the Bank of England, “in particular by its poor handling of the liability-driven investment bonds (LDI) crisis, and its regulatory failures”.

It points out the Bank of England is independent of government and says: “Thus the relevant rate changes were not ’caused’ by our client.

“These facts were clear as early as May 2024, if not before.”

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‘Do you take any blame for your premiership?’

The letter argues there was “no rise in unemployment…no sustained loss of wealth”, and no “enduring economic impacts”.

It says Ms Truss and the mini budget did not play “a significant causal role in the financial market volatility of September/October 2022” and said almost everything, in fiscal terms, had been announced before the mini budget.

The letter requests Sir Keir “immediately cease and desist” from repeating she crashed the economy on an “amicable basis”.

“This request is made in the context of the basic levels of civility which is due between senior politicians, and we trust that you will respond accordingly,” the letter says.

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