The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
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4:43
Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
Sir Keir Starmer has said stability in the Middle East is “a priority” following US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the world has reacted to the attack.
The prime minister also called on Iran to “return to the negotiating table” to “reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis”.
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2:30
US strikes on Iran explained
In a statement, Sir Keir said: “Iran’s nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security.
“Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat.
“The situation in the Middle East remains volatile and stability in the region is a priority.
“We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis.”
The UK was not involved in the strikes but was informed about them in advance by the US, Business Minister Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.
Sir Keir and Foreign Secretary David Lammy had been pushing for a diplomatic solution. On Thursday, the prime minister warned of a “real risk of escalation” in the conflict.
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3:34
Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
The US struck three sites in Iran early on Sunday morning, with Donald Trump boasting the country’s key nuclear sites were “completely and fully obliterated” in an address to the nation from the White House and warned there could be further strikes if Iran retaliates.
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1:20
‘Trump’s bold decision will change history’
Netanyahu praises Trump
Israel‘s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Mr Trump for the strikes, saying: “Your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history…
“History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.”
UN secretary-general ‘gravely alarmed’ by US attack
But UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said he was “gravely alarmed by the use of force” by the US against Iran.
“This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security. There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control – with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world.”
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European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged all sides to step back and return to the negotiating table. “Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon,” she said in a post on X.
“I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,” she said, adding that EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation tomorrow.
Image: Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel. Pic: Reuters
How the world reacted to the strikes
Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on X: “We strongly condemn the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, which constitutes a dangerous escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
“The aggression seriously violates the UN Charter and international law and plunges humanity into a crisis with irreversible consequences.”
Venezuela’s foreign minister Yvan Gil said his country’s government “condemns US military aggression” and “demands an immediate cessation of hostilities”.
In a statement, an Australian government spokesperson said Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme “has been a threat to international peace and security”.
Image: Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Isiba. Pic: Reuters
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said it is “crucial that there be a quick de-escalation of the conflict”.
Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani said after the attack that his country’s government hopes “a de-escalation can begin and Iran can sit down at the negotiating table”.
The US attack came after more than a week of strikes by Israel, which have significantly degraded Iran’s air defences and offensive missile capabilities, and damaged its nuclear enrichment facilities.
Israel’s strikes on Iran have killed at least 865 people and wounded 3,396 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists. The group said of those killed, 365 were civilians and 215 were security force personnel.
Since the local elections Reform UK has had no shortage of good polls.
But a new one suggests Nigel Farage‘s party has a chance not only of winning the next election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.
In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time, with Nigel Farage’s party edging in front on 25%, Labour pushed into second on 24%, with the Tories on 21%.
But a fresh one from Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Conservatives a distant third on 15%.
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16:03
Zia Yusuf: I sent a tweet I regretted
While the other parties are flatlining, Reform appears to be pushing boundaries.
Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30, Sky News analysis suggests.
Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 on last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.
But polling should always be taken with a pinch of salt and with the firm acknowledgement that there is not an election coming any time soon.
Conservative backbenchers might also tell you publicly that opinion polls are notoriously difficult to translate into seat numbers because voting percentages in individual constituencies can vary hugely from the overall average.
But the truth is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping another poll is likely to be noticed by MPs from all parties, especially backbench Conservatives who have actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, can help them climb the polls and bring the party back into public favour.
Politics is a brutal game and when it comes to toppling underwhelming party leaders, the Tories are more ruthless than most. One wonders how many of these polls Mrs Badenoch’s party will allow her to endure.
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As the party approaches a year since its major victory, it will not have much to celebrate if these numbers are anything to go by.
According to this survey, only 19% are satisfied with the job Sir Keir Starmer is doing as prime minister, with 73% dissatisfied.
And the figure of 25% of voters intending to vote Labour is a level not seen since October 2019.
While abstract to much of the public, polling can often shape not only the chatter inside Westminster but how and when plots by MPs begin.
For Reform UK, this is a much-needed morale boost after a surprise resignation by their former Chairman Zia Yusuf, and then an almost immediate U-turn back into the party.
And Kemi Badenoch – who said during her leadership campaign that the Conservatives needed to go back to first principles and that this would take time – will be wondering, seven-and-a-half months after winning the leadership, how much time she really has left.
Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 30 May-4 June 2025.
The impending ban on protest group Palestine Action has divided opinion – described as both “outrageous” and “long overdue”.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to take the step after the group broke into RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire on e-scooters and sprayed two Voyager planes with red paint.
The prime minister described the attack as “outrageous” and a rapid review of security at MoD bases is under way.
It was the latest protest in a five-year campaign from Palestine Action (PA) that has targeted arms manufacturers, financial institutions, political figures and government buildings.
Red spray paint has become its signature.
Image: Damage to planes at Brize Norton
On its website, PA says it is a “direct action movement” committed to ending “global participation” in what it calls Israel’s “genocidal and apartheid regime”.
It adds that it uses “disruptive tactics” to target “corporate enablers of the Israeli military-industrial complex”.
Banning the group would make membership of it illegal. It would be treated as a terrorist organisation.
Saeed Taji Farouky, a spokesman for PA, told Sky News that potential proscription was “unfair”, adding that it was “ludicrous” that a “civil society direct action group” could end up on the same list as ISIS.
He added: “It’s not logical, it’s not even consistent with the British legal definition of terrorism, it’s a reaction that’s been taken overnight, with almost no discussion or debate.
“The whole thing is incredibly worrying, mostly for what it means about British law in general, about undermining the very basis of British democracy and the rule of law.”
There are “no circumstances” under which the two people who breached Brize Norton would be handed over to the police, he said.
Singer-songwriter Paloma Faith, who spoke at a pro-Palestine rally in Whitehall in central London on Saturday, told Sky News she was “devastated” by the move.
Image: Paloma Faith spoke at the pro-Palestine rally
“I have met some of the people who have friends in that group. They are young students and they are basically trying to do something because they feel that our government is failing them.”
She added that “everyone” wants to end what she described as a “massacre” in Gaza.
Israel says its military campaign in Gaza is a way of defending itself against Hamas, which killed more than a thousand people in its 7 October attacks and took about 240 people hostage. Hamas-run health authorities claim Israeli attacks have since killed almost 56,000 people in Gaza.
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1:49
What’s happening to Palestine Action?
Faith continued: “When you scribble on something, or paint on it, it’s a non-violent protest and it shouldn’t be made at the same level as a violent protest – it is unjust.”
Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, backed Palestine Action’s use of non-violent protest.
Image: A bank damaged by Palestine Action
He told Sky News: “There has been a place for that in all political movements in history.
“In the struggle for the rights of black people in the US, in the struggle against apartheid in South Africa, in the struggle for women to have the vote, people took forms of non-violent direct action.
“Imagine if we had the current [situation] back in those days – we would have been proscribing the suffragettes, treating them as terrorists.”
Image: There was a pro-Israeli counter-protest in London
Others have welcomed the move. Lord Walney, who served as the government’s independent adviser on political violence, told Sky News the decision was “long overdue”.
“Palestine Action have acted as the enemy within which is why it’s right, now, to crack down on them,” he said.
“They have terrorised working people for a number of years and there’s a number of serious violent charges that are going through the court system at the moment.”
The UK government is expected to announce its decision early next week.