College Football Playoff 2024: Quarterfinal first look
Beginning with snow in South Bend, the College Football Playoff made its on-campus debut this weekend. The scenes have not disappointed.
Up next is the quarterfinal round, which features four games played at traditional postseason sites: the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl. Much like the first round, the quarterfinals will span two days. No. 3 Boise State kicks things off and will make its first-ever CFP appearance — albeit in a very familiar game, the Fiesta Bowl, where 18 years ago much of the country learned about the Broncos in their unforgettable win against Oklahoma. They’ll face No. 6 Penn State.
The New Year’s Day slate begins with perhaps the most surprising CFP entrant: Arizona State, which was picked to finish last in the 16-team Big 12 and won the league to earn the No. 4 seed. Coach Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils will be in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl for the first time since 1970 and will face No. 5 Texas. Up next will be the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential, in which No. 1 seed Oregon, the nation’s only undefeated team this season, will take the field and face No. 8 Ohio State in a highly anticipated rematch. An incredible day finishes up in New Orleans, where No. 2 seed Georgia, the only team in the CFP field to win a national championship in the past four seasons, will face No. 7 Notre Dame at the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Ten teams are left in the hunt for a national championship, following a season of unpredictability. Here’s a look at the first two quarterfinal matchups and what to expect Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. — Adam Rittenberg
Jump to:
Penn State vs. Boise State
Texas vs. Arizona State
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
When: Dec. 31, 7:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Perhaps we learned Penn State has an elite defense, but that seemed pretty clear before the 38-10 win over SMU in which the D picked off Kevin Jennings three times in the first half, returning two for touchdowns. Moreover, those interceptions were as much a statement about SMU’s incompetence on the execution of those plays as Penn State’s brilliance. Perhaps we learned that, once again, the 106,000-plus fans in Happy Valley can create havoc for opposing teams, but that won’t be an advantage through the rest of the playoff for Penn State. Perhaps we learned coach James Franklin can win a big one. He had been just 5-21 vs. top-12 teams at Penn State entering this year’s playoff. But while SMU might have earned its No. 11 ranking, the talent disparity on the field clearly favored Penn State, and had the Mustangs not imploded of their own accord so early, there might’ve been real hand-wringing over Franklin’s perplexing fourth-down call from his own 20-yard line up 14-0 or the offense’s inability to break big plays against SMU until the score was entirely lopsided. In other words, Penn State’s win was encouraging, because things mostly went right, and the Nittany Lions did what they were supposed to do. But beyond that, an easy victory against an SMU team that helped by beating itself didn’t exactly prove that this year’s Penn State is finally capable of getting over the hump against a genuinely top-tier opponent. The really good news is, the Nittany Lions are going to get at least one more chance to do just that.
X factor: QB Drew Allar. Allar and the Penn State passing game have been a mixed bag over the past two years. The top-line numbers speak for themselves. Allar wins, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he has moved the ball consistently against lesser competition. But the downfield threat has never quite materialized for Allar, even as the offense’s explosiveness has improved with Andy Kotelnicki calling plays in 2024. Part of that comes from the lack of a true speed demon on the outside, and part of it comes from a game plan built around two talented tailbacks. But there will come a time in these playoffs — and quite possibly against Boise State — when Allar needs to change the dynamic, force a defense to respect the vertical threat and win some battles downfield.
How Penn State wins: It’s unlikely Penn State can completely run back the blueprint for beating SMU, as it’s not often a defense is gifted so many big plays by the opposing quarterback, but the basic framework for a win should look a good bit like what the Nittany Lions did in Round 1. It’s no secret Boise State’s magic is created by tailback Ashton Jeanty, so if Penn State can force the game into Maddux Madsen’s hands instead, there’s reason to think it can cash in on some QB mistakes, just as it did against SMU. Of course, that’s easier said than done. Jeanty has faced his share of stacked boxes this season, so not only does Penn State need to game-plan to stop Jeanty on defense, but Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton & Co. have to actually bring down the Heisman Trophy runner-up before he can escape into space. — David Hale
Key player: RB Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has turned in one of the best seasons college football has ever seen from a running back, rushing for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, to finish second in the Heisman voting. He needs 132 yards to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record, which has stood since 1988 (when bowl stats did not count toward official stats). Jeanty can do it all: get tough yards, break long ones, catch passes. And he has done it as the focal point from opposing defenses in a way few players ever are.
X factor: QB Maddux Madsen. There isn’t really a question of what the Broncos will get from Jeanty. He’s going to deliver when the chances are there and, probably, when they aren’t. In the Mountain West, he was dominant enough to minimize the importance of the passing game. That won’t be the case in this game. The Broncos will need complementary football and Madsen to rise to the occasion. In the regular season, Madsen did an excellent job protecting the football — he threw 29 touchdowns to just three interceptions — and that has to be the case against Penn State. The Nittany Lions terrorized SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, and SMU never stood a chance with his poor performance.
How Boise State wins: When the Broncos lost by three at Oregon in September, they went toe-to-toe with the Ducks from start to finish. That performance earned them a lot of credibility with the selection committee and is perhaps the blueprint for how to advance. The key part here is not falling behind early. They never trailed by more than a score against Oregon, and that allowed Jeanty to stay as involved as possible. He’s going to see loaded boxes, as usual, but the opposing talent level is much higher than anything the Broncos have seen since Oregon. If Boise State can hang on to the ball and avoid third-and-long, it will have a puncher’s chance. — Kyle Bonagura
When: Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Texas can morph into whatever form necessary to advance. Quinn Ewers started 8-for-8, but he cooled off after a ball bounced off DeAndre Moore Jr.’s hands and turned into an interception. But the running game took over Saturday for the Longhorns. After running for a total of 60 yards in two losses to Georgia this year, the Longhorns had two 100-yard rushers against Clemson, just the fourth pair of running backs to top the century mark in the playoff. Jaydon Blue, who had 38- and 77-yard touchdown runs — the second the Longhorns’ longest run of the season — added some explosiveness to an offense that has been methodical all season. This Texas team has dimensions where it can shift gears.
X factor: Texas tight end Gunnar Helm is a reliable security blanket for Ewers and the Longhorns, catching a touchdown with 33 seconds left in the first half, and three of his other five catches went for first downs, all coming on first down. The threat of Helm on early downs over the middle softens up looks for the rest of the offense. The 6-5, 250-pound senior is now first in Longhorns history in catches by a tight end and second in yards and touchdowns by a tight end in a season.
How Texas wins: Run the ball and shut down Cam Skattebo. The Texas pass defense was gashed by Clemson at times, giving up three passing TDs after surrendering only four all season, but without Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils might not have enough weapons to keep spreading out the nation’s best pass defense. If Texas can contain Skattebo (in the passing game, too) and feed its own running backs behind a strong offensive line, the Longhorns can stifle the Sun Devils and milk the clock while making them play from behind. — Dave Wilson
Key player: RB Cam Skattebo. What is not to love about the way Skattebo plays? His emergence became one of the best storylines of the season, as he ended up finishing fifth in the Heisman voting. He rushed for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding 506 yards and three touchdowns receiving — the only player in the country with 1,000-plus yards rushing and 400-plus yards receiving (even with one missed game). As if that weren’t impressive enough, the last player to hit those marks was Christian McCaffrey in 2015. Skattebo got better as the season progressed — and his performance in the Big 12 championship game speaks to that. He was named Most Outstanding Player of the game after scoring three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving), with 208 yards of total offense.
X factor: DB Xavion Alford. It is hard to call one of the best defensive players in the Big 12 an X factor, but so much of the focus on the Sun Devils has been on their offense that Alford deserves some of the spotlight — and he is likely to have an opportunity to come up big. An All-Big 12 first-team selection, Alford has been the model of consistency and an ironman of sorts. He played the fourth-most snaps in coverage in the Big 12 this season (424, 33rd among all FBS players) and allowed just seven receptions, the third fewest in FBS (minimum 300 coverage snaps). Teams have learned to not throw his way — he has been targeted just 17 times this season. As a result, he has allowed only 76 yards in coverage, fourth lowest among FBS players.
How Arizona State wins: Texas presents the biggest, most physical challenge up front that Arizona State has faced this season. The Longhorns completely owned Clemson at the line of scrimmage in their first-round game, so to defeat them, Arizona State will have to match or beat that physicality — and force Ewers into making mistakes. We all know what Skattebo can do, but Texas ranks as one of the best defenses in the country — so keeping that group off-balance is going to be key. Sam Leavitt has shown incredible poise as the starting quarterback, but the offensive line is going to have to make sure to keep Texas at bay so he does not get rattled. — Andrea Adelson
When: Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Despite falling to Michigan, Ohio State is plenty capable of winning the national championship. The Buckeyes bounced back in a big way, throttling one of the SEC’s top teams all year in Tennessee. Ohio State jumped to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. Wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka got open at will, and quarterback Will Howard put the ball on the money. Defensively, linebacker Cody Simon set a physical tone, cracking Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava‘s helmet on the opening drive with a devastating hit. It’s hard to see anyone else in the playoff defeating this version of the Buckeyes.
X factor: The Volunteers simply couldn’t cover Smith, who ignited the Ohio State scoring barrage with a 37-yard scoring grab on the opening possession. Ohio State curiously gave Smith only two targets in the Michigan loss, with both coming in the third quarter, resulting in just one catch for 3 yards. This time around, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s game plan against Tennessee clearly was to get the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Wide Receiver of the Year involved early and often. The Buckeyes have capable veteran playmakers (Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins), but Ohio State’s offense is at its most dangerous when Smith is touching the ball.
How Ohio State wins: In their first meeting, the Buckeyes allowed Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel to operate with a clean pocket (no sacks, only two QB hurries). The Heisman Trophy finalist made them play with 341 passing yards, highlighted by several completions downfield and two touchdowns on the way to the 32-31 victory. As the Tennessee game illustrated, Ohio State has the pass rushers — notably Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau — to overwhelm the opposing quarterback. Getting to Gabriel in the rematch will be paramount for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Key player: QB Dillon Gabriel. This is why Gabriel left Oklahoma and made his way to Eugene, to play in games like this. The fifth-year senior will lead Oregon into the Rose Bowl with a chance to stay undefeated and get one step closer to his ultimate goal of winning a national championship. Only Shedeur Sanders had a better completion percentage than Gabriel this season, an impressive feat when you consider this is his first year in the Ducks’ offense. Gabriel fit in seamlessly into offensive coordinator Will Stein’s unit and has produced his best games when Oregon has needed him the most — 341 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State and 283 yards and four touchdowns in the Big Ten title game against Penn State. For Oregon to advance, Gabriel will need to not just replicate those kinds of performances, but likely dig deeper for more.
X factor: DE Jordan Burch. Oregon’s defense hasn’t exactly lacked for much given its depth and talent, but Burch has been a force. Despite missing four games with an injury, he has been able to tally 8.5 sacks (20th in the country), including a 2.5-sack outing against Washington in the regular-season finale. Having an extended rest period between the Big Ten title game and the Rose Bowl is a boon for a player like Burch, who could single-handedly tilt the game in the Ducks’ favor by wreaking havoc in the opposing team’s backfield.
How Oregon wins: The Ducks have the benefit (or the curse, depending on how you look at it) no other team in the quarterfinals has: They’ve already beaten their opponent once. Against the Buckeyes in October, Oregon fought fire with fire, out-gaining, outmatching and ultimately outscoring Ohio State by a single point in Eugene, thanks to a handful of explosive plays, fewer penalties and winning the turnover battle (2-0). The margin between these two teams is already slim and on a neutral site, Oregon will have to be more explosive, more disciplined and simply better — especially on defense, where they allowed 467 total yards — to be able to beat a tough opponent twice. The way the playoff bracket shook out is not how the No. 1 seed Ducks would have likely preferred, but what we get as a result is a rematch that could provide us with an all-time classic between arguably the two best teams in the country this year. It’s only fitting that the setting will be the Rose Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
When: Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in Round 1: Notre Dame has a championship-level defense with stars at all three levels. Safety Xavier Watts won the Bronko Nagurski Award in 2023, but he’s actually even better this season and showed why against Indiana with 10 tackles and an interception. Jaiden Ausberry led a playmaking group of linebackers and Rylie Mills created havoc up front, as Notre Dame flexed on third down (7 of 13 conversions). Notre Dame’s offense isn’t always the most fluid unit, but with so many running options, chunk plays are always possible, and Jeremiyah Love can deliver them, as he showed with a 98-yard touchdown, the longest play in CFP history.
X factor: WR Jordan Faison, a standout lacrosse player thrust into action at wide receiver in 2023 because of attrition, has become a sneaky good target for quarterback Riley Leonard. Despite missing three early-season games with a sprained ankle, Faison has made multiple catches in every contest he has appeared in, and he had a career-high seven receptions for 89 yards against Indiana. “He’s a playmaker, man,” coach Marcus Freeman said. The sophomore also has a knack for shining in the postseason, as he earned Sun Bowl MVP honors last year with 115 receiving yards and a touchdown against Oregon State. Notre Dame can’t beat Georgia strictly with its run game, and it will need wideouts such as Faison to make notable contributions.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish must harass Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, likely filling in for injured starter Carson Beck, just as they did Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke on Friday. Notre Dame’s defense, which has carried the team much of the season, recorded 10 tackles for loss and three sacks against Indiana and rarely let the Hoosiers operate on schedule. The Irish also need to replicate the offensive balance they showed against Indiana while being a bit more consistent on the ground. Remove Love’s 98-yard touchdown, and Notre Dame had 95 net rushing yards on 34 carries. Notre Dame also must play a cleaner game on special teams after having a field goal attempt blocked and an onside kick recovered by Indiana late in the game. — Rittenberg
Key player: QB Gunner Stockton. With Bulldogs starter Carson Beck probably sidelined for the CFP because of an elbow injury on his throwing arm, they’ll turn to Stockton, who is expected to make his first start in the Sugar Bowl. Stockton completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in Georgia’s 22-19 victory over Texas in the SEC championship game. He came off the bench to rally the Bulldogs back from a 6-3 deficit at the half. The third-year sophomore has completed 78.1% of his attempts for 206 yards in parts of three games in 2024. Stockton is more of a runner than Beck, but he has far less experience. At Rabun County High School, Stockton had 13,652 career passing yards and 177 passing touchdowns to go with 4,372 rushing yards and 77 rushing touchdowns in his four-year career. He set Georgia state high school records for career passing touchdowns, passing yards and rushing touchdowns.
X factor: RB Trevor Etienne. The Florida transfer returned from a nearly monthlong absence because of a rib injury and ran for 94 yards with two scores in the SEC championship game. He ran for 87 yards with three touchdowns in a 30-15 victory over the Longhorns in the regular season. Etienne can become a big safety valve for Stockton because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield — he has 28 receptions for 168 yards. Etienne is also a more-than-capable blocker, which will be important if Notre Dame’s defense decides to dial up the heat on Stockton. The Irish are 39th in run defense in the FBS (133 yards per game), and they held Indiana to only 63 yards in the first round.
How Georgia wins: With Stockton stepping under center, the Bulldogs are going to need their defense to rise up big time. This hasn’t been Georgia’s best defense under coach Kirby Smart; it ranks 21st in scoring defense (20.4 points), 36th against the run (127.8 yards) and 35th in total defense (334.8 yards). The defense has played well in some of Georgia’s biggest games, including wins over Texas and Tennessee. Linebackers Smael Mondon Jr. and Jalon Walker will need to control Notre Dame’s running game, and they’ll need to force the Irish into a couple of turnovers. — Mark Schlabach
Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
-
David Hale
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.
This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment3 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024