‘I guess this is the Cubs’ version of going all-in’: What to make of Chicago’s confusing offseason
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
CHICAGO — For consecutive offseasons, the Chicago Cubs have given mixed signals to their fans and the rest of the baseball world.
Last winter, they sent shockwaves through the sport when they fired David Ross and lured Craig Counsell from Milwaukee by making him the highest paid manager ever. After the bold move to start the offseason, it looked like the Cubs could follow with a big spending spree.
Instead, what ensued was a “measured” offseason, according to one rival executive who went into that winter worried the Cubs might outspend the division. Chicago did make some deft moves — signing pitcher Shota Imanaga, acquiring first baseman Michael Busch from the Los Angeles Dodgers and waiting out the market to bring back Cody Bellinger — but the splashy roster addition many expected never occurred.
Their 2024 results resembled their conservative offseason approach. After winning 83 games under Ross in 2023, the Cubs posted another 83-win season under their new $40 million manager.
Fast-forward to this winter and the team once again started boldly, this time with a blockbuster trade for Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker. But while Cubs fans were still celebrating the addition of a veteran star, Chicago turned around and traded away another when it shipped Bellinger — and most of his $52.5 million contract — to the New York Yankees. Tucker will make around $16 million to $18 million in 2025 through the arbitration system, compared to Bellinger’s $27.5 million salary for next season.
“I guess this is the Cubs’ version of going all-in,” one agent said sarcastically.
All of this is happening against the backdrop of not making the playoffs in a full season since 2018 while exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the 2024 season — and with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer entering the final year of his contract.
Here’s how the franchise has become stuck in the middle.
RECENTLY, HOYER WAS asked about the concept of being all-in.
“I always think that all-in is sort of a narrative,” he said. “You’re always doing moves for now and the future and trying to balance those.”
When Chicago traded for Tucker, it signaled an urgency to win in 2025 and a shift in that balance. The Cubs sent three years of team control for third baseman Isaac Paredes, five years for pitcher Hayden Wesneski and six years for prospect Cam Smith to the Astros. All for just one guaranteed season of Tucker, since he can become a free agent after the season.
It was a move outside their comfort zone, one Hoyer said he would not have made back in 2021 or 2022 when the team was at the beginning of a rebuild.
“To acquire a player like that, it comes at a real price,” he said. “But it’s a price we’re willing to pay given the fact that’s something we felt all summer we lacked and wanted to bring to this team.”
The move gave the Cubs a deep lineup featuring left-handed power throughout the order including Tucker, Happ, Bellinger, Busch and Pete Crow-Armstong — until Bellinger was quickly flipped to New York.
While the moves might have confused fans, the front office has been transparent about what is driving its offseason decisions.
“Marginal value of a win,” general manager Carter Hawkins said. “If you’re going from 85 to 87 wins, [it’s] really important. That might be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. Going from 75 to 77, not that important. You’re unlikely to make the playoffs.”
After Counsell’s first season at the helm failed to produce a playoff berth, the Cubs have replaced a good player in Bellinger with a better one in Tucker, while adding Matthew Boyd to the rotation to replace Kyle Hendricks, and are hoping these incremental upgrades will get them back to October.
MUCH OF THE reason the Cubs are spending their offseason focused on creating value in trades comes from a reluctance to play in the deepest end of free agency, including choosing not to make a run at top free agent Juan Soto.
“I think we organizationally decided not to pursue that one,” Hoyer said earlier this month at the winter meetings. “That doesn’t mean in the future we won’t. But that was one we didn’t.”
You can also cross off ace Corbin Burnes. And Max Fried, who signed with the Yankees. And anyone else in line for a huge payday.
Though the Cubs’ front office has the ability to be fluid with its budget, according to sources familiar with the situation, it’s become obvious the team isn’t going to increase its payroll by any significant margin. They are likely to reallocate the savings from the Bellinger-Tucker swap to other areas of the team, according to sources. The Cubs might even reduce their payroll in 2025, but ownership has always been open to what the front office presents them, whether that comes in the winter or during the summer trading period. The team believes it spends enough to win, but also understands that the payroll isn’t enough to guarantee 90-win seasons.
“We have to beat projections,” Hoyer famously said at the beginning of the offseason. “We have to have players outperform … that’s how you have the season that we want to have.”
Chicago was one of three teams that missed the playoffs despite being over the luxury tax threshold last season. Over the last half-decade, however, Chicago hasn’t spent on its payroll to keep up with other big-market teams that routinely exceed the luxury tax number and it remains to be seen if ownership will allow the front office to do so again in 2025, with stiffer penalties for a second consecutive offense.
The addition of a new television network in 2020 hasn’t been the cash cow the team thought it would be, according to sources familiar with the situation. Meanwhile, private equity investment has ownership answering to more than just a handful of local minority investors like it did previously. The bottom line is more of a concern than ever, with some industry observers believing the Cubs won’t sign a megadeal for a player before the next labor agreement is negotiated with the players after the 2026 season.
That means Tucker could be one-and-done at Wrigley Field. After Soto helped set the market when he signed for $765 million, the soon-to-be free agent has likely already priced himself out of Chicago. Signing an extension before he hits free agency seems unlikely and some industry observers already believe the odds are low that he will re-sign with Chicago next winter.
“There is no point in speculating on that today as we sit here in December,” Hoyer said.
Tucker had a similar noncommittal response at his introductory news conference: “I’m always open to talks and see where it leads. You never know what the future is going to hold. We’ll see how things progress.”
Perhaps just making the playoffs in 2025 would be enough to quiet the noise if Tucker leaves, but it could also help the Cubs keep the 27-year-old, three-time All-Star on the off chance he’d take a discount to stay.
Whether the Cubs are playing in October could also serve as a litmus test for Hoyer. Ownership has always held a positive view of Hoyer, but the franchise has yet to win a postseason game since he moved into his current role in November 2020. While ownership isn’t necessarily looking to make a change, there’s belief around the organization that Hoyer’s performance will be more scrutinized in 2025 than at any time during his tenure with the Cubs.
“My own situation is not a concern,” Hoyer said. “I don’t look at it that way. I’ve been in the game for a long time. I’m confident in my abilities and my résumé. My job always is to be the best steward of the organization.
“I try to make good decisions for the Ricketts family. Try to make sure I’m setting us up for a good future but I’m also setting us up for an exciting present.”
Sports
‘We’re a very dangerous team now’: What all this winning means for the Red Sox’s trade deadline plans
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Jesse Rogers
Just over a month ago, the Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in a blockbuster deal that sent shockwaves through the industry. At the time of the trade, the Red Sox were just a game over .500. They went 3-7 in their first 10 games without Devers and looked to be fading out of contention.
As the team fell in the standings, rumors began to circulate that the slugging designated hitter wouldn’t be the only star traded out of Boston. But a 10-game win streak before the All-Star break has vaulted the Red Sox into the thick of the playoff race and provided some clarity about their trade deadline plans.
“Throughout the whole year, we thought we had a really good team,” assistant GM Paul Toboni told ESPN over the weekend. “We were kind of waiting for it to click. That streak reconfirmed the thought that we had a good team.”
Boston doesn’t have a lot of expiring contracts, so even without the win streak, a complete teardown was unlikely. Still, trading some of its outfield depth was a possibility. The Red Sox rank in the top 10 in OPS in right field, center field and left field thanks to Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.
With that group helping the Red Sox hold an American League wild-card spot, the front office is likely to add pitching, according to sources familiar with their situation, while retaining the abundance of outfielders unless the club is blown away with an offer in the next 10 days.
“Having a surplus of good players isn’t a bad thing,” Toboni said. “The high-end depth is a really good thing. It’s not like we’re anxious to move away from that.”
With their outfield situation likely to be addressed in the offseason, the Red Sox have winning on their minds. A young core, highlighted by the arrival of Anthony and infielder Marcelo Mayer, has had some time to adjust to the majors, leaving the team’s veterans excited about the coming months.
“These guys have been here for a few months now,” Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman said. “We’re starting to learn who we are as a group. The adjustments are being made quicker at this time of the year. It didn’t start out that way, but guys are wanting to learn and get better. You can see that in our growth this year.”
Bregman watched closely while he was out of the lineup because of a quad injury he sustained at the end of May. He has seen what winning baseball looks like during his time in Houston. It has taken the young Red Sox some time to get there.
“We’re a very dangerous team now, especially when we’re prepared and executing,” Bregman said. “We’ve played good for a while now.
“People will say this is a hot streak, but I believe this is who we are.”
As the calendar inches toward August, that’s the sentiment throughout the clubhouse, where the veterans who have been through the uncertainty of trade season are relieved to spend the next two weeks without trade chatter.
“The run we went on before the All-Star break, it was good. We needed something like that to get us back in the mix, restore some confidence,” starting pitcher Lucas Giolito said. “Right now, staying in the present is important, but I don’t think we have guys in this room too worried they’re going to get dealt or anything anymore.”
Two players who were brought in over the offseason might be the most relieved.
All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman, who has a 1.18 ERA and 17 saves, could have been one of Boston’s most sought-after deadline trade candidates had the front office elected to deal him.
When asked about possibly being moved, the 37-year-old, who is playing for his seventh major league club, smiled as he responded through his interpreter: “The team is in good shape.”
Fellow Boston pitcher Walker Buehler added: “It’s probably good timing to hopefully push the front office to go out and buy and help us make a run. We did our part at the end of the first half there. I want to stay here and be part of it. Don’t want to be on the wrong side of a trade.”
Though they might have done enough to convince the front office to stick with the current veterans, the Red Sox have some of their toughest work ahead of them. According to ESPN Research, they have the hardest remaining schedule for the rest of the month and sixth hardest for the rest of the season, but manager Alex Cora isn’t interested in looking at the stretch run — or what Boston’s first postseason berth since 2021 would mean.
Instead, he believes that if the players can keep attacking each day, the rest will take care of itself.
“I promised myself I’m going to stay in the moment,” Cora said. “It doesn’t do the group any good to start talking about that. We have to win games. It’s not to put pressure on the front office or ownership. It’s what we need to do for us to play in October.”
Opposing teams are asking for “outrageous returns” for pitching, according to league sources, but if the asking prices become more reasonable closer to the deadline, expect the Red Sox to be involved. Until then, they are focused on riding their July momentum while navigating a tough schedule.
“Time to keep it locked in,” Giolito said. “We’ll be welcoming whatever help comes.”
Sports
‘We’re a very dangerous team now’: What all this winning means for the Red Sox’s trade deadline plans
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Jesse Rogers
Just over a month ago, the Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in a blockbuster deal that sent shockwaves through the industry. At the time of the trade, the Red Sox were just a game over .500. They went 3-7 in their first 10 games without Devers and looked to be fading out of contention.
As the team fell in the standings, rumors began to circulate that the slugging designated hitter wouldn’t be the only star traded out of Boston. But a 10-game win streak before the All-Star break has vaulted the Red Sox into the thick of the playoff race and provided some clarity about their trade deadline plans.
“Throughout the whole year, we thought we had a really good team,” assistant GM Paul Toboni told ESPN over the weekend. “We were kind of waiting for it to click. That streak reconfirmed the thought that we had a good team.”
Boston doesn’t have a lot of expiring contracts, so even without the win streak, a complete teardown was unlikely. Still, trading some of its outfield depth was a possibility. The Red Sox rank in the top 10 in OPS in right field, center field and left field thanks to Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.
With that group helping the Red Sox hold an American League wild-card spot, the front office is likely to add pitching, according to sources familiar with their situation, while retaining the abundance of outfielders unless the club is blown away with an offer in the next 10 days.
“Having a surplus of good players isn’t a bad thing,” Toboni said. “The high-end depth is a really good thing. It’s not like we’re anxious to move away from that.”
With their outfield situation likely to be addressed in the offseason, the Red Sox have winning on their minds. A young core, highlighted by the arrival of Anthony and infielder Marcelo Mayer, has had some time to adjust to the majors, leaving the team’s veterans excited about the coming months.
“These guys have been here for a few months now,” Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman said. “We’re starting to learn who we are as a group. The adjustments are being made quicker at this time of the year. It didn’t start out that way, but guys are wanting to learn and get better. You can see that in our growth this year.”
Bregman watched closely while he was out of the lineup because of a quad injury he sustained at the end of May. He has seen what winning baseball looks like during his time in Houston. It has taken the young Red Sox some time to get there.
“We’re a very dangerous team now, especially when we’re prepared and executing,” Bregman said. “We’ve played good for a while now.
“People will say this is a hot streak, but I believe this is who we are.”
As the calendar inches toward August, that’s the sentiment throughout the clubhouse, where the veterans who have been through the uncertainty of trade season are relieved to spend the next two weeks without trade chatter.
“The run we went on before the All-Star break, it was good. We needed something like that to get us back in the mix, restore some confidence,” starting pitcher Lucas Giolito said. “Right now, staying in the present is important, but I don’t think we have guys in this room too worried they’re going to get dealt or anything anymore.”
Two players who were brought in over the offseason might be the most relieved.
All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman, who has a 1.18 ERA and 17 saves, could have been one of Boston’s most sought-after deadline trade candidates had the front office elected to deal him.
When asked about possibly being moved, the 37-year-old, who is playing for his seventh major league club, smiled as he responded through his interpreter: “The team is in good shape.”
Fellow Boston pitcher Walker Buehler added: “It’s probably good timing to hopefully push the front office to go out and buy and help us make a run. We did our part at the end of the first half there. I want to stay here and be part of it. Don’t want to be on the wrong side of a trade.”
Though they might have done enough to convince the front office to stick with the current veterans, the Red Sox have some of their toughest work ahead of them. According to ESPN Research, they have the hardest remaining schedule for the rest of the month and sixth hardest for the rest of the season, but manager Alex Cora isn’t interested in looking at the stretch run — or what Boston’s first postseason berth since 2021 would mean.
Instead, he believes that if the players can keep attacking each day, the rest will take care of itself.
“I promised myself I’m going to stay in the moment,” Cora said. “It doesn’t do the group any good to start talking about that. We have to win games. It’s not to put pressure on the front office or ownership. It’s what we need to do for us to play in October.”
Opposing teams are asking for “outrageous returns” for pitching, according to league sources, but if the asking prices become more reasonable closer to the deadline, expect the Red Sox to be involved. Until then, they are focused on riding their July momentum while navigating a tough schedule.
“Time to keep it locked in,” Giolito said. “We’ll be welcoming whatever help comes.”
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2024 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Passan: Contender plans | Trades for every team
Jump to …: Trending names | Latest intel
MLB trade deadline trending names
1. Eugenio Suarez: The Arizona Diamondbacks star is No. 1 in our updated MLB trade deadline candidate rankings and could be the most impactful player to move this month. On pace to hit more than 50 home runs, the 2025 All-Star is on the wish list of every contender in need of third-base help.
2. Sandy Alcantara: The 2022 Cy Young winner is an intriguing option in a deadline with a dearth of impact starting pitching available. His ERA is over 7.00 for the Miami Marlins this season, but some contenders believe he could regain form in a new home.
3. Jhoan Duran: This deadline is suddenly teeming with high-end relievers who will at the very least be in the rumor mill during the coming days. If the Minnesota Twins opt to move their closer — and his devastating splinker — Duran might be the best of the bunch.
MLB trade deadline buzz
July 22 updates
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Buster Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman amd Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold this year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designate hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
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