
Way-Too-Early Top 25: Next season’s breakout player for every team
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adminThe 2025 season is on the way and several budding players on our Way-Too-Early Top 25 teams are primed for breakout campaigns.
Tony Rojas should add to Penn State’s proud Linebacker U tradition. After a banner freshman season, safety KJ Bolden is on his way to becoming Georgia’s next defensive star. And incoming freshman running back Gideon Davidson could give Clemson’s offense an immediate jolt.
Who else could break out in 2025? Our college football experts break it down:
Breakout player: Eddrick Houston, DE
With all four starting defensive linemen (Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton) from the national title team moving on to the NFL, the Buckeyes have a major void to fill up front. But Houston, the No. 35 overall recruit last year, seems primed to step into a lynchpin role along the defensive line. Houston (6-foot-3, 270 pounds) was recruited as a defensive end but played inside last season. Wherever he ends up in 2025, he figures to be an impact player for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Breakout player: Arch Manning, QB
It’s kind of hard to break out when your name is Arch Manning — even if he’s a first-year starter — so we’ll go with the man who could be Manning’s security blanket in coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense: Spencer Shannon. Two years ago, Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders caught 45 passes for 682 yards. Last season, TE Gunnar Helm caught 60 passes for 786 yards and seven TDs. As a redshirt freshman, he appeared in four games last season, but Sarkisian has touted him as their best in-line blocker and someone who has vastly improved his ball skills. At 6-7 and 255 pounds, he’s a mismatch for linebackers and Sarkisian noted he has spent two seasons practicing with Manning already, so they have a rapport. — Dave Wilson
Breakout player: Tony Rojas, LB
After earning honorable-mention All-Big Ten honors as a sophomore, Rojas, a rising standout linebacker, seems primed for a big 2025 season. Rojas surged in the College Football Playoff, highlighted by his pick-six in Penn State’s opening-round victory over SMU. With Abdul Carter on his way to the NFL and All-Big Ten linebacker Kobe King gone as well, Rojas should take on a more central role under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. — Trotter
Breakout player: Jaden Greathouse, WR
Until the CFP semifinal and national championship game, Greathouse had only 359 yards receiving. But in those final two games against Penn State and Ohio State, Greathouse stepped up for 13 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. In the second half against the Buckeyes, Greathouse spearheaded a furious Notre Dame comeback that came up just short. That spectacular ending could prove to be a springboard for Greathouse to be even greater in 2025. — Trotter
Breakout player: KJ Bolden, DB
One of the best young defenders in the SEC last season, Bolden made his presence felt on the back end of that Georgia defense. As a true freshman, Bolden was overshadowed by All-American safety Malaki Starks but rose up and played some of his best football in the postseason. He’ll only get better in 2025 and will be one of the anchors in a Georgia secondary that is also returning some talented young cornerbacks. Bolden is an excellent open-field tackler and, according to Pro Football Focus, gave up only eight yards in 134 coverage snaps last season. — Chris Low
Breakout player: Makhi Hughes, RB
Running back Jordan James was an underrated part of the Oregon offense last season and, with him leaving for the NFL, the Ducks were quick to add Hughes from the transfer portal to try to fill the void. Hughes spent his past two seasons at Tulane averaging over 5 yards per carry each of those two seasons and totaling 22 touchdowns (15 last season). Without Dillon Gabriel under center and with a younger quarterback in Dante Moore taking over, it wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Will Stein relies on Hughes (as well as the rest of the Ducks’ running back room) to be the fulcrum of their offense this coming season. — Paolo Uggetti
Breakout player: Gideon Davidson, RB
Unlike last season, when Clemson was all-too tethered to Phil Mafah, it’s a crowded backfield for the Tigers in 2025. Still, that doesn’t mean a lead back won’t emerge from a group that includes last year’s second-leading rusher Jay Haynes, David Eziomume, Keith Adams Jr. and converted receiver Adam Randall. But if there’s a true superstar to emerge, set those sights Davidson, a true freshman described by coach Dabo Swinney as “the best freshman back in the country.” Davidson was ranked as a top-100 prospect across the board, and he averaged better than 9 yards per carry in high school. He’s explosive and powerful, and if he hits the ground running at Clemson, he could carve out a sizable role on an offense poised to be among the most talented in the country. — David Hale
Breakout player: Nic Anderson, WR
Even though he’s new to the LSU roster after transferring from Oklahoma, Anderson has all the tools to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in 2025, especially with Garrett Nussmeier throwing to him. The 6-4, 220-pound Anderson sat out all but one game last season after tearing his quadriceps. But as a redshirt freshman in 2023, he set an Oklahoma freshman record with 10 touchdown catches and averaged 21 yards per catch. Anderson is back to full strength, and with Kyren Lacy headed to NFL, Anderson should emerge as the go-to receiver in LSU’s offense. — Low
Breakout player: Keelan Marion, WR
The Cougars return their top two pass catchers from last season between Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter. But if a BYU offense that finished 11th in passing yards per game among Big 12 programs last season is going to take a leap with second-year starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff, it might require Marion to carve out a larger role. An All-American kick returner who caught 24 passes in 2024, Marion has yet to fully unleash the downfield potential he flashed when he hauled in 28 passes for 474 yards and 5 touchdowns as a freshman at UConn in 2021. Year 3 with the Cougars could be the platform for Marion and his elite speed to become another important weapon for a BYU offense shouldering the weight of Big 12 title and legitimate playoff aspirations in 2025. — Eli Lederman
Breakout player: Nyck Harbor, WR
There might not be a receiver in the country more physically intimidating than Nyck Harbor, who checks in at 6-5, 235 pounds. That’s made him an object of curiosity on South Carolina’s offense for the past two years, despite only small steps forward in his development. But as LaNorris Sellers blossomed down the stretch last season, Harbor, too, seemed to find something extra, finishing with 15 catches, 272 yards and two scores in his final five games of the 2024 season. The Gamecocks wide receivers room was less than dynamic as a whole last year, but Harbor represents real promise — and after two years of incremental improvement, he looks poised to truly deliver on that promise in 2025. — Hale
Breakout player: Cannon Butler, DL
A central focus of the Cyclones’ offseason has been the challenge of replacing 1,110-yard receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, and Iowa State added a pair of new options for quarterback Rocco Becht in transfer pass catchers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF). But the Cyclones also have production to fill in on the defensive line after the departures of defensive end Joey Petersen (team-high 8.0 TFL last fall) and 2024 sack leader J.R. Singleton. Enter Butler, an athletic defensive lineman and Northern Iowa transfer who totaled 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks in an impressive junior season last fall. At 6-6, 241 pounds, Cannon carries positional flexibility to play on the edge or inside and has tools to establish himself as a valuable component in an otherwise inexperienced Cyclones defensive end unit this fall. — Lederman
Breakout player: Ty Simpson, QB
There will be some intrigue this spring surrounding the quarterback battle at Alabama, especially with Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator. The Crimson Tide brought in five-star freshman Keelon Russell, and talented Austin Mack followed Kalen DeBoer to Alabama from Washington last year. But it’s Simpson’s time now after backing up Jalen Milroe the past two seasons. The Alabama staff really liked the way Simpson competed last preseason and last spring, and he wasn’t too far behind Milroe. While not as dynamic an athlete as Milroe, Simpson is still plenty athletic and more consistent throwing the ball. This is Simpson’s fourth year on campus, and though he hasn’t played much, he’s a good fit for what Grubb and DeBoer want to do on offense. — Low
Breakout player: Cole Rusk, TE
The Illini had big hopes last season for Rusk, who transferred in after earning FCS All-American honors at Murray State. But Rusk sustained a season-ending knee injury during fall camp. Rusk will now have an opportunity to give quarterback Luke Altmyer a reliable pass-catching option after Illinois’ tight ends combined to generate only 20 receptions last season. — Trotter
Breakout player: Kyson Brown, RB
Replacing the 1,711 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns All-American running back Cam Skattebo produced last fall won’t be easy. The portal addition of Army transfer Kanye Udoh (1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024) is promising for the Sun Devils’ 2025 backfield, but the 293 carries Skattebo logged last season are more than Udoh had in two years at Army (278), meaning Arizona State probably will have to spread its backfield snaps a bit more in 2025. If that’s the case, third-year rusher Brown could be in line for a bigger role this fall after recording 351 yards and a pair of scores, averaging 4.81 yards per attempt as a sophomore. Brown’s ability in the passing game also distinguishes him alongside Udoh, who brings a grand total of two career receptions in 23 career games operating in Army’s run-heavy offense. — Lederman
Breakout player: LJ Johnson Jr., RB
Miami transfer Brashard Smith was a surprise star for the Mustangs last season, rushing for 1,332 yards and 14 TDs. With Smith departing for the NFL, Johnson, who rushed for 879 yards over the past two seasons, returns to give the Mustangs a powerful runner, but SMU spreads the field and will need someone to help fill Smith’s shoes. Rhett Lashlee highlighted freshman Dramekco Green Jr., who averaged 9.2 yards per carry and rushed for more than 1,500 yards as a high school senior, as someone who could get early playing time. — Wilson
Breakout player: Jerand Bradley, WR
The stakes are heightened for second-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson in 2025, and Kansas State reinforced at wide receiver to help him this offseason, adding transfer pass catchers Bradley (Boston College), Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Jaron Tibbs (Purdue). Among that trio, Bradley stands out as the most intriguing. The 6-5 receiver, who began his career at Texas Tech, never fully settled in during his lone season at Boston College in 2024. But Bradley been as an productive downfield target in the Big 12 before, hauling in 87 passes for 1,175 yards and 10 touchdowns across the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Red Raiders, and he’ll have an opportunity to assert himself in the Wildcats’ passing attack alongside top returner Jayce Brown, who logged 47 receptions for 832 yards and 5 touchdown in 2024. — Lederman
Breakout player: Zen Michalski, OL
The Hoosiers picked up a key transfer from down the road in former Notre Dame center Pat Coogan, who started 26 games for the Fighting Irish. But another transfer could also play a big role up front as Indiana revamps its offensive line after last year’s playoff run. Michalski stepped in after left tackle Josh Simmons sustained a season-ending knee injury, then started the next game against Nebraska before sustaining his own injury. Michalski could slide in at right tackle in his first season as a full-time starter and solidify an Indiana offense that holds promise behind transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza. — Trotter
Breakout player: Caleb Banks, DT
The Gators got a huge win when defensive tackle Banks decided to return to school for one more season to anchor a front that improved dramatically as 2024 progressed. Banks had an impressive final month. In the final three games, the 6-6, 325-pound Banks had seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. In all, he had 21 tackles (10 solo) and will now be relied on to help set the tone up front for a team with growing expectations. As much excitement as there is surrounding DJ Lagway, there is also tremendous upside for the Florida defense heading into 2025. — Andrea Adelson
Breakout player: Mike Matthews, WR
Matthews came in as a five-star receiver last season as a freshman but didn’t provide much production for a Tennessee offense that was lacking in explosive plays. He briefly flirted with transferring after the season but decided to return and is somebody the Vols desperately need to blossom and give them some firepower in the passing game. Matthews caught seven passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns last season. He has big-play ability written all over him, and with Tennessee losing seven receivers from last season’s team, there’s a chance for Matthews to live up to his billing. — Low
Breakout player: Jordan Guerad, DL
After battling an early season injury, Guerad had a strong finish to his season, culminating with six tackles (two for a loss) and a sack in the bowl game against Washington. The interior of the D-line looks like a point of need for the Cardinals after the departures of Thor Griffin, Dezmond Tell and Notre Dame transfer Jared Dawson, but a healthy Guerad will get ample opportunity to continue his development and prove he’s the answer to Louisville’s biggest defensive need. — Hale
Breakout player: Jordan Marshall, RB
The Wolverines featured a strong running back duo last season in Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, who combined for 1,537 yards. But with both runners sitting out the ReliaQuest Bowl to prepare for the draft, the Wolverines might have uncovered their back of the future in Marshall. A blue-chip freshman out of Ohio, Marshall rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries in the first meaningful action of his career, earning bowl game MVP honors in Michigan’s 19-13 victory over Alabama. With Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, running back seems primed to remain a strength for the Wolverines. — Trotter
Breakout player: Terry Bussey, WR
The Aggies landed the dynamic Bussey, the No. 1 athlete and No. 18 overall prospect in the 2024 ESPN 300, with an eye on him playing cornerback. But with a more urgent need for playmakers on offense, he switched to wide receiver late in the summer. His best game came against Missouri, when he caught three passes for 76 yards. On the season, he caught only 17 passes, but 11 came in the last four games. With a year under his belt on offense full time, the Aggies are hoping to find more creative ways to utilize his 4.4 speed. — Wilson
Breakout player: Elija Lofton, TE
Lofton drew raves last season as a freshman for his versatility and playmaking ability. Though he played in every game, Miami had three more experienced tight ends on the roster so his snaps were limited. That will no longer be the case heading into the 2025 season. With Elijah Arroyo, Cam McCormick and Riley Williams all gone, Lofton will take over as the top tight end. Though it might appear that the group depth will take a hit, the coaching staff feels great about the position because of what Lofton is poised to become as he reaches his full potential. At 6-3, 230 pounds, he has the athleticism to play both tight end and running back, but also the size and strength to block the way Miami expects from its tight ends. — Adelson
Breakout players: Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines, RBs
There is no more Ashton Jeanty in the backfield for Boise State, but the majority of the offense built to support a strong running attack remains. It’s why Dubar and Gaines could be in line for breakout seasons. In two seasons, Dubar has had limited action (87 carries, 434 yards and 4 touchdowns) and Gaines’ freshman season in 2024 featured 20 carries for 156 yards and 1 touchdown. With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning, and an internal hire as the new offensive coordinator in Matt Miller, the system that can fuel another explosive rusher is not so different in 2025. Come the fall, Madsen probably will be asked to do a lot more, but so will Dubar and Gaines. — Uggetti
Breakout player: Zxavian Harris, DT
Ole Miss had one of the most dominant defensive lines in the country last season, and the Rebels’ numbers bear that out. They were second nationally in scoring defense and rushing defense and set a school record with 53 sacks. Most of the key players from that unit are gone, but Harris, a 6-7, 320-pound tackle, returns in the middle of that Ole Miss defensive line and will be force in 2025. He has played in 37 games over the past three seasons and shown flashes of dominance. His senior season will be his best yet, and Ole Miss will need that from him. — Low
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Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1
Published
2 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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Multiple Contributors
Jul 13, 2025, 11:00 PM ET
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?
Published
5 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
Sports
Van Gisbergen takes Sonoma to extend win streak
Published
5 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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Associated Press
Jul 13, 2025, 07:14 PM ET
SONOMA, Calif. — Shane van Gisbergen extended his winning streak to two straight and three victories in the past five weeks with yet another dominating run on a road course.
The New Zealander once again showed he’s in a completely different class on road and street courses than his rivals as he led 97 of 110 laps Sunday to win from pole at Sonoma Raceway. All three of his wins this year have been from pole — which tied him with Jeff Gordon for a NASCAR record of three consecutive road course victories from the top starting spot.
Gordon did it between the 1998 and 1999 seasons.
Victory No. 4 for van Gisbergen — who stunned NASCAR in 2023 when he popped into the debut Chicago street course race from Australian V8 Supercars and won — seemed a given before teams even arrived at the picturesque course in California wine country. His rivals have lamented that “SVG” has a unique braking technique he mastered Down Under that none of them — all oval specialists — can ever learn.
That win in Chicago two years ago led van Gisbergen to move to the United States for a career change driving stock cars for Trackhouse Racing. He and Ross Chastain have pumped energy into the team over this summer stretch with Chastain kicking it off with a Memorial Day weekend victory at the Coca-Cola 600.
Van Gisbergen is the fastest driver to win four Cup Series races — in his 34th start — since Parnelli Jones in 1969.
“It means everything. That’s why I race cars. I had an amazing time in Australia, and then to come here and the last couple weeks, or years, actually, has been a dream come true,” said van Gisbergen. “I’ve really enjoyed my time in NASCAR. Thanks, everyone, for making me feel so welcome. I hope I’m here for a long time to come.”
The Sonoma win made it four victories for Trackhouse in eight weeks. Van Gisbergen was second from pole in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race.
Although he dominated again Sunday, van Gisbergen pitted from the lead with 27 laps remaining and then had to drive his way back to the front. He got it with a pass of Michael McDowell with 19 laps remaining, but two late cautions made van Gisbergen win restarts to close out the victory in his Chevrolet.
Chase Briscoe was second in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.
“I’ve never played against Michael Jordan, but I imagine this was very similar,” Briscoe said after not being able to pass van Gisbergen on the two late restarts — the last with five laps remaining. “That guy is unbelievable on road courses. He’s just so good. He’s really raised the bar on this entire series.”
Briscoe was followed by Chase Elliott in a Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports. McDowell in a Chevy for Spire Motorsports was fourth and Christopher Bell in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing was fifth.
In-season challenge
The midseason tournament that pays $1 million to the winner is down to four drivers.
Alex Bowman finished 25th and eliminated Ty Dillon, who finished 26th. Tyler Reddick (11th) knocked out Ryan Preece (16th), John Hunter Nemechek knocked out teammate Erik Jones as they finished 21st and 22nd, and Ty Gibbs, with a seventh-place finish, eliminated Zane Smith.
Bowman, at eighth, is the highest-seeded driver still in the challenge, which debuted this year.
Crew fight
NASCAR officials had to separate the crews for Brad Keselowski and Gibbs when members from the two teams scrapped on pit road during the race.
Keselowski’s crew confronted Gibbs’ crew after Gibbs drove through their pit stall and narrowly missed hitting some of Keselowski’s crew members already in place waiting for him.
The confrontation appeared to be contained to pushing and shoving and NASCAR officials quickly stepped between them. Both crews were given an official warning for fighting but NASCAR said Gibbs did nothing wrong.
Clean race — for a while
It took 61 of the 110 laps for the first caution for an on-track incident — when Ryan Blaney was knocked off the course and into the dirt early in the third stage. The contact from Chris Buescher left Blaney stranded, and right before NASCAR could throw the yellow, Bubba Wallace and Denny Hamlin both spun.
It was technically the third caution of the race, but the first two were for natural stage breaks.
The race ended with six cautions — two in the final stretch.
Up next
The Cup Series races Sunday at Dover Motor Speedway in Delaware, where Hamlin won last year.
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