‘An out in three pitches’: What the rest of MLB can learn from the Royals’ old-school rotation
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Bradford Doolittle
WHEN A TEAM finds a successful strategy in pro sports, it has long been the expectation that its competition will shift toward that strategy. The typical refrain: “It’s a copycat league.”
If that’s the case in Major League Baseball, shouldn’t the replicating felines be conducting thorough investigations of last season’s Kansas City Royals?
The 2024 Royals were a historically remarkable team. Kansas City won 30 more games than it did in 2023. If you prorate every past team to a 162-game season for comparison, the Royals authored just the 14th year-over-year leap of at least 30 wins since 1901. It was just the fourth such leap in the three decades since the advent of the wild card. Kansas City joined the 1946 Boston Red Sox and the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays as the only teams to improve by at least 30 games, then go on to win more than one game in the playoffs.
How could such a thing possibly happen? It’s not as if the Royals were like the 2022 Baltimore Orioles — another 30-win leaper — who turned the corner after years of topping the prospect rankings. Entering the season, the prospect mavens remained very much down on the Royals’ system. Yet they broke out anyway. Wouldn’t the answer to this particular “how” question have some repercussions on baseball’s hypercompetitive, eager-to-innovate landscape?
The answers have a lot to do with the fading status of the starting pitcher — and how, when it comes to managing a rotation, there’s more than one way worth copying.
THEY TRIED. THAT’S what you heard so often about Kansas City’s success. It’s true. Despite losing 106 games the season before, the Royals went about building the best 26-man roster they could, displaying an aggression during free agency that surprised everyone. They tried, sure, but they also tried in a very specific way.
The sexy part of the Royals’ breakout was the amazing-but-expected rise of star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. But the Royals scored only 59 more runs in 2024 than the season before. The rocket fuel for the turnaround came on the other side of the ball, where K.C. slashed 215 runs off of its 28th-ranked runs allowed total of 2023.
While the bullpen performed better, the rotation accounted for most of this, cutting its collective ERA from 5.17 to 3.76. The group didn’t have a Paul Skenes ascend to the majors, nor did it have a high-profile international addition. The Royals did introduce two solid veteran free agents to the group in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.
“We felt like we had a lot of holes to fill and everything in this game starts and ends with starting pitching,” Royals GM J.J. Picollo told ESPN during the team’s hot start last year. “So that was clearly the No. 1 objective, trying to secure two starting pitchers.”
That’s an old-school statement, the type of thing baseball execs have been saying for eons. Still, while Lugo and Wacha had good enough track records that Kansas City was far from their only option, between them they had accounted for one All-Star appearance (Wacha in 2015) over 19 combined big-league campaigns. It’s not the kind of thing that takes a team from 106 losses to playing the New York Yankees in October.
But it did. The Royals did play into October, and everything did begin with those two signings. Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA over 206⅔ innings, second in AL Cy Young balloting) and Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA, 166⅔ innings) were outstanding. Just as important, though, were the downhill effects of their dual arrival.
“Wacha and Lugo are great,” said the budding ace the Royals already had in their deck, fireballing lefty Cole Ragans. “They are two great guys who you look up to and try to understand how they go about their game.”
Well, how do they go about their games?
The most important statistic about the Kansas City rotation might simply have been 908 — the number of innings the Royals got from their starting pitchers. That total ranked second in the majors behind Seattle, but 95% of that figure came from K.C.’s five most-used starters, the highest percentage in the majors. Lugo led the way with an AL-leading 836 batters faced.
“Lugo threw 206 innings, I think, last year,” Ragans said, correctly. “That’s where you want to be. The goal is 200 innings. You just watch him, how he goes about his business, how he thinks about pitching. He knows he can get swing-and-miss when he needs it, but he’s trying to get guys off balance and get some weak contact.”
Lugo led the way, but his approach was Kansas City’s approach — even for Ragans, who has elite swing-and-miss ability. These aren’t new ideas, but they felt kind of like it during a season when pitcher injuries — and the widespread focus on max-effort pitching that likely contributes to them — dominated the headlines. The Royals simply did not participate in that narrative.
With five core starters — Lugo, Wacha, Ragans, Brady Singer (now with the Cincinnati Reds) and Alec Marsh — doing most of the work, the Royals’ rotation still managed to work deeper into games than any other team in an era of two-times-through-the-order starters. Some facts:
• Royals starters faced 23.4 batters per outing, most in the majors, making the trip into the third time through the order a standard, not a rarity.
• Kansas City tied for third in quality starts (76), which of course entails going at least six innings in an outing.
• The Royals’ starters threw just 16.2 pitches per frame, ranking 23rd in the majors.
• The Royals ranked 21st in total payroll, but 14th in payroll allotted for starting pitchers. Their core five starters accounted for 30.7% of the outpay, the second-largest percentage allocated for that group in the majors, behind Toronto (34.4%).
• Of the Royals’ 86 wins, 58 resulted in winning decisions for a core-five starter, the highest total in the majors.
• The core five started 151 of the Royals’ 162 games, another big-league-leading total.
Obviously, a lot has to go your way for this to happen. It’s not as if the Royals have figured out how to sidestep pitching injuries. But this was all very much by design, not just in roster construction, but in terms of game-by-game, inning-by-inning, pitch-by-pitch approach.
Call it a season approach, rather than a game approach. To achieve maximum results over 162 games, don’t leave it all out there in any one situation with a barrage of 100 mph fastballs and a focus on the strikeout column. Much of it has to do with managing effort, not the easiest skill to learn in the era of Statcast and Rapsodo, but it’s one even the game’s best strikeout pitchers can hone over time.
“It’s trying to rein in when somebody steps in there,” said the Texas Rangers‘ Jacob deGrom, a two-time Cy Young winner with a career strikeout rate of 11 whiffs per nine innings. Yet, after a string of injury-plagued seasons, deGrom is focused on easing up on the throttle. “When somebody steps in, it’s go time. But you have to trust that your stuff plays at maybe not 100% effort. There’s a lot of times you’ll actually locate the ball better. So it can be a plus in both ways, health wise, and maybe some location stuff.”
These are lessons taken to heart by the newest member of the Royals’ rotation, lefty Kris Bubic, who is transitioning back to starting pitching after Kansas City traded Singer over the winter.
“I don’t want to say pitching to contact,” Bubic said. “But we’re not relying on velocity. We’re relying on change of speeds, throwing a lot of strikes.”
This sentiment is borne out in the data. The Royals’ starters ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of average velocity, with Ragans’ ability to crack 100 with his four-seamer leading the way, so it’s not like they were a bunch of Jamie Moyers. But the Royals’ reliance on softer stuff resulted in the second-highest aggregate spin rate among rotations.
Forget the radar. Get in, get out.
“There’s always a philosophy of ‘an out in three pitches,'” Bubic said, repeating it like a mantra. “You want a guy out on three pitches. You want a guy out on three pitches. You just continue that attacking mindset.”
THIS WINTER’S TOP free agent starting pitchers had plenty of suitors. Based on data from Roster Resources at FanGraphs, we can estimate that about $1.38 billion in committed salary went to free agent starters — highlighted by nine-figure commitments for Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.
After the Royals’ success in 2024, you might have expected a bit more activity from baseball’s also-rans and low-revenue teams, which saw how the right couple of rotation additions can not just infuse the win column but can paper over an organization’s lack of depth.
Yet it was mostly the usual suspects doing all of that spending. Teams that finished .500 or better last year accounted for 78% of the collective rotation investment. If you look at it from a revenue standpoint, the 12 highest-grossing teams (or 40% of the league) accounted for 58% of the spending on starters.
There were exceptions in the Athletics and Los Angeles Angels. The low-ish revenue Arizona Diamondbacks doled out $210 million for Burnes. Still, by and large, there wasn’t a deluge of teams following in the Royals’ path. Ranking eighth in spending on starters were the Royals themselves, who committed $58 million to bring back Wacha and Michael Lorenzen.
If you love the traditional models of starting pitching, this might be disappointing. As we’ve alluded to, while the Royals didn’t reinvent the rotation wheel, they did at least show us that some of the old ways can still work. But so, too, do the new ways.
Case in point: If the Royals took a season approach to running their rotation, other teams won with a game-based approach — and none more so than the Milwaukee Brewers.
“We don’t have the firepower to give up one game, you know?” said Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy, the reigning National League Manager of the Year. “I mean, we just don’t. We’re not built that way.”
The Brewers have been one of baseball’s great innovators for years now, but much of their recent run of success has been due to a foundation of starting pitching, led by Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. But Burnes was traded before last season and Woodruff was recovering from a shoulder injury.
Still, the revamped Brewers won 93 games and the NL Central title, and they did it by winning one game at a time in about the most anti-Royals way possible.
Only three teams used fewer starters than the Royals’ nine, but only two clubs used more than the Brewers’ 17. Only three teams got fewer rotation innings than Milwaukee, and only six teams saw their starters throw more pitches per inning.
Instead of riding a group of old-school starters and preserving them as much as possible for the long haul, the Brewers improvised their way along, day after day. And it worked.
“Of course, we want the length,” said Milwaukee pitching coach Chris Hook. “But that’s not necessarily how you put 27 outs together.”
In terms of managing effort, this approach focuses a starting pitcher in that he doesn’t have to worry about the later innings, as starters once did. Still, the notion of managing effort at all might be an individual pitcher thing, as opposed to an explicit message from an organization. Brewers starter Aaron Civale has spent his career taking a tour of some of baseball’s most cutting-edge pitching programs, moving from Cleveland to Tampa Bay to Milwaukee.
“I’ve never been instructed to not have the foot on the gas,” Civale said. “I’ve also never been instructed to have my foot on the gas. I think that if you’re a competitor and you’re at this level, you’re going pitch to pitch, and you’re trying to win that moment versus the hitter. And the hitter is doing the same thing.”
In a sense, the Brewers maintained that kind of postseason mindset from the first pitch on Opening Day. Worry about getting the win today. Then worry about tomorrow.
“It’d be great to have five dudes,” Hook said, “but I don’t think that’s the norm. Throughout the league, it’s not the norm. For us even more so, because we do things a little different in how we construct a roster.”
That roster construction works because of Milwaukee’s ability to consistently build deep, dominant bullpens, often with the considerable help of pitchers who have struggled in other organizations. It also involves finding what former manager Craig Counsell always called “out getters” — pitchers who fill a variety of roles from short, high-leverage spots to multi-inning stints in the middle of winnable games.
“It’s about winning the F’ing game tonight,” Hook said. “That’s basically Murph’s mantra, and I think that’s how we play the system.”
EVERYTHING WENT RIGHT for the Royals’ rotation in 2024, just as pretty much everything went right for the Brewers’ bullpen, at least once closer Devin Williams returned from injury. The teams went about it very differently but ultimately both approaches paid off in postseason appearances.
Now they are running it back, trying to repeat dynamics that are so hard to pin down. Can the Royals get 151 starts from five starting pitchers? Can the Brewers continue to spin almost every bullpen arm they acquire into high-leverage gold, especially after trading Williams to the Yankees in December?
Both teams pursued a bit more rotation/bullpen balance. The Royals made the bold move of moving Singer in his prime in order to acquire a much-needed leadoff hitter in Jonathan India. They also bolstered a bullpen that was spotty for much of 2024, having added high-leverage fireballers Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey and Carlos Estevez since the middle of last season.
Still, the investment to bring back Wacha and Lorenzen, and the decision to move Bubic to the rotation after a highly successful campaign as a reliever, shows that starting pitching very much remains the focus in Kansas City.
“You want to take that baton,” said Bubic, who added a second slider in order to diversify his arsenal in a way that will allow him to navigate opposing lineups as many times as possible. “They pass that baton to you and you want to fulfill those same expectations: Make a quality start, pitching deep into games.”
The Brewers, meanwhile, committed just $5.25 million in new salary to its rotation, the bulk of that coming late in the spring when veteran Jose Quintana signed after strangely lingering on the free agent market all winter. They also acquired starter Nestor Cortes in the Williams deal. But Milwaukee will remain unlikely to climb high on the leaderboard for rotation innings.
Maybe the Royals’ turnaround didn’t spur a neoclassic movement in starting pitching, but at least they showed that a season approach can still work. Insomuch as that’s the case, some of the old ways live on. But every new season is a blank slate.
“The starters carrying those innings, going deep into those games, was immensely important last year,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “I don’t know how to predict it going forward.”
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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