UK’s fiscal position as tight as ever but expect a different focus from Rachel Reeves at the spring statement

Published

4 days ago

March 26, 2025

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Remember “securonomics”? It was the buzzword Rachel Reeves gave to her economic philosophy back before the election.

The idea was that in the late 2020s, the old ideas about the way we run the economy would or should give way to a new model.

For a long time, we ignored where something was made and by whom and just ordered it in from the cheapest source. For a long time, we ignored the security consequences of where we got our energy from. The upshot of these assumptions was that over time, we allowed our manufacturing base to become hollowed out, unable to compete with cheap imports from China. We allowed our energy system to become ever more dependent on cheap Russian gas.

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The whole point of securonomics was that it matters where something is made and who owns it. And not just that – that revitalising manufacturing and energy could help revitalise “left-behind” corners of the economy, places like the Midlands and the North East.

Back when she came up with the coinage, Joe Biden was in power and was pumping billions of dollars into the US economy via the Inflation Reduction Act – a scheme designed to encourage green tech investment. So securonomics looked a little like the British version of Bidenomics.

That’s the key point: the “security” part of “securonomics” was mostly about energy security and supply chain security rather than about defence.

But when Rachel Reeves became chancellor, it looked for a period as if securonomics was dead on arrival. Most glaringly, Labour dramatically trimmed back the ambition and scale of its green investment plans.

But roll on a year or so, and we all know what happened next.

A new era

The Democrats lost, Donald Trump won, came into office and swiftly triggered a chain reaction that panicked everyone in Europe into investing more in defence. Today, much of the focus among investors is not on net zero but on defence.

All of which is to say, securonomics might be about to resurface, but in a markedly different guise. In the spring statement, I expect the chancellor to bring back this buzzword, but this time, the emphasis will not be on green tech but on something else: the defence sector.

Expect to hear about weapons

This time around, the chancellor will say securonomics 2.0, which is to say government investment in the defence sector will also bring an economic windfall, as old naval ports like Plymouth and Portsmouth see regeneration. This time, the focus will not be on solar and wind but on submarines and weapons.

Whether this rendition of securonomics is any more successful than the last remains to be seen. For the chancellor hardly has an enormous amount of money left to invest. While this week’s event is billed as a mere forecast update, the reality, when you take a step back, is more serious.

The chancellor will have to acknowledge that, without remedial action, she would have broken her fiscal rules. She will have to confirm significant changes to policy to rebuild the “headroom” against these rules. These will stop short of tax rises. Instead, the spending envelope in future years will be trimmed (think 1.1% or so spending increases rather than 1.3% or 1.4%). Those welfare reforms announced last week will bring in a bit of extra cash. And thanks to an accounting quirk, the decision (announced a few weeks ago) to shift development spending into defence will also give her a bit more space against her rules.

The austerity question

But even these changes will raise further awkward questions: is this or is this not austerity? Certainly, for some departments, that spending cut will involve further significant sacrifices. Are those benefits gains really achievable, and at what cost? And, most ominously, what if the chancellor has to come back to parliament in another six months and admit she’s broken her rules all over again?

The return of securonomics might be the theme she wants to focus on in the coming months – but that, too, depends on having money to invest – and the UK’s fiscal position looks as tight as ever.

UK

How to see today’s partial solar eclipse from the UK

Published

11 hours ago

March 29, 2025

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How to see today's partial solar eclipse from the UK

Stargazers could catch a glimpse of a partial solar eclipse this morning, where the sun looks like it’s had a bite taken out of it.

It only occurs a handful of times a year, when the moon passes between the sun and Earth, and partly obscures the star.

Here’s what you need to know for the best chance of seeing it.

When is it?

It’s expected to be visible in the UK from 9.56am to 12.14pm today.

For people in the south of England – where the weather means views should be best – the peak of the eclipse is set to be at around 11.03am.

This is when the eclipse reaches its “maximum” – the moment when the greatest portion of the sun is hidden.

According to the Royal Observatory, the maximum this time will see around 30-40% of the sun obscured.

What is the weather meant to be like?

Some parts of the UK will see more of the eclipse than others. Northwest Scotland is expected to see the most coverage with 47.9% in Gallan Head.

Dover in southwest England is set to see the least coverage of the eclipse with only 28.1% of the sun blocked by the moon, while Manchester is expected to have 36.1% of coverage.

Check the forecast where you are

Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill said: “The further northwest you are in the UK the more of an eclipse you are likely to have, whereas towards the southeast it’s a little bit less – but still 30%, and still a large chunk taken out of the sun.”

Met Office maps show clear skies across southeast England at the time that the eclipse starts, with partial cloud above Manchester and northwest England, and cloud above most of Scotland.

The areas expected to have some of the best eclipse coverage are also likely to see cloud and rain at the time.

Conditions are widely meant to clear over the weekend, with temperatures up to 17C in the South East and 14C in the North on Sunday – but it may come slightly too late to have a good view of the sun today.

How can I give myself the best chance of seeing it?

Even though part of the sun will be covered, its brightness will still be dangerous to the naked eye, so experts say it can cause serious and permanent damage if you look straight at it without appropriate protection.

Also: standard sunglasses do not count as protection.

If you want more than a quick glance, you can use a pinhole projector or solar eclipse viewing glasses.

You can make pinhole projectors at home, simply by making a hole in a piece of card, holding the card up to the sun and holding another piece of paper behind the card.

The shape of the sun will appear projected onto the paper, without harming you.

Solar eclipse viewing glasses can be purchased online.

For those who can’t see it in person, the Royal Observatory is streaming the partial eclipse live through one of its modern telescopes on its YouTube channel, with coverage starting from 10am.

UK

UK weather: Spring sunshine set to return on Mother’s Day, forecasters say

Published

11 hours ago

March 29, 2025

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UK weather: Spring sunshine set to return on Mother's Day, forecasters say

Spring sunshine will return to parts of the UK in time for Mother’s Day and continue into next week – potentially bringing the hottest day of the year so far, forecasters have said.

Sky weather producer Kirsty McCabe said Mothering Sunday was likely to be a “mostly fine day with bright or sunny spells once early low cloud and drizzle clears”.

She predicted there would be “temperatures near or above average” for most places.

Afterwards, however, high pressure is set to dominate. There is a good chance the highest temperature of the year so far will be reached by the middle of next week, topping the high of 21.3C (70F) recorded on 20 March.

Latest UK weather forecast

However, the far north and west of the British Isles are likely to be cloudier and windier with a risk of rain.

The Met Office has also forecast that warm conditions will return on Sunday after a brief, changeable period in what it called “typical spring fashion”.

Central and inland areas should have the warmest weather on Mother’s Day, with its forecasters also predicting “a short-lived spell of unsettled weather this weekend”.

But the Met Office added the country would “transition back towards a blocked weather pattern as high pressure builds on Sunday and dominates our weather through much of next week”.

Honor Criswick, a meteorologist from the agency, said the high pressure would “stick around as we head into next week, bringing some fine and settled conditions, perhaps even some warm sunshine”.

Partial solar eclipse in parts of UK

Ms Criswick said Sunday morning would be cloudy, with possible drizzle and mist, but that would give way to a dry day with “some sunny spells, particularly across central and inland areas of the UK”.

She predicted there would be “quite a settled start to the week next week, lots of sunny spells and also some quite warm temperatures”.

Meanwhile, a partial solar eclipse will be visible in parts of the UK between 10am and noon on Saturday.

Those in the east of the country will have the best chance of seeing it.

The phenomenon occurs when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth. However, the three planetary bodies will not be completely aligned, meaning only part of the sun will be obscured this weekend.

UK

‘Sensitive military documents’ found in Newcastle street

Published

11 hours ago

March 29, 2025

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'Sensitive military documents' found in Newcastle street

“Appropriate action” will be taken following the discovery of sensitive military documents on a street in Newcastle, Downing Street has said.

An investigation has been launched by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) after the paperwork was found spilling out of a black bin bag in the Scotswood area of the city on 16 March.

The BBC reported that the documents included details of soldiers’ ranks, shift patterns, email addresses, weapon issue records and access information for military facilities.

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The broadcaster reported the paperwork related to units based at Catterick Garrison in North Yorkshire, around 50 miles south of Newcastle.

In a statement, the MoD said it did not believe there had been a significant security breach.

A spokesperson said: “We take the protection of our information very seriously and this incident is being closely investigated.

“We have rapidly reviewed the information and understand no sensitive operational defence information is contained within the documents.”

Among the paperwork was a sheet reportedly headed “armoury keys and hold IDS codes” – believed to refer to an armoury and intruder detection system.

A Number 10 spokesperson said: “The Ministry of Defence is currently looking at documents handed to the police, but the matter is the subject of an ongoing investigation by the Army.

“As you will appreciate, I won’t be able to comment on any specifics while that takes place, but you can expect that appropriate action will be taken in response to any potential information breach.

“It’s obviously important that that investigation is allowed to take its course.”

The discovery was made by Mike Gibbard, a football fan from Gateshead, who stumbled across the documents while parking ahead of Newcastle United’s Carabao Cup final match against Liverpool.

He told the BBC: “I peered down and started to see names on bits of papers, and numbers, and I thought ‘what’s that?’

“They were piled up against a wall, in a black bag, in the road, underneath cars – spread all the way up the road.”

He said he found more documents on the other side of the road and was alarmed by the contents.

“Details of the perimeter, the patrol, checking weapons in and out, requests for leave, mobile phone numbers, high-ranking officers,” he told the BBC.

“This shouldn’t be here, anyone could pick it up.”

The documents were handed to Northumbria Police. A spokesperson for the force said they were subsequently given to the MoD.

Government guidelines recommend that some “official – sensitive” documents could pose a “threat to life” if compromised. The advice states that such paperwork should be destroyed using shredders or “burn bags”.