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Image: A Ukrainian patrol boat in the Black Sea in 2024. Pics: Reuters
Ceasefires around energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea are progress, but not the peace Mr Trump promised, and at what price?
The man who said he would end the war within a day of taking office won’t win the Nobel Peace Prize for this.
Asked how the ceasefire would be monitored, Mr Trump replied: “Well, they’re going to get together.
“… there’s tremendous animosity, there’s a lot of hatred you can probably tell, and it allows for people to get together, mediate it, arbitrate it, and see if we can get it stopped, and I think it will.”
More words, but ultimately it comes down to actions – the extent to which ceasefires are observed.
As they count the cost of this massive earthquake, the people of Myanmar will be hoping for a silver lining, that the disaster may hasten the fall of their despised dictator.
The catastrophe comes at a very bad time for General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in a coup four years ago.
The Myanmar junta is losing a civil war against an array of opposition forces, ceding territory now largely kettled into the country’s big cities. And some of the quake’s worst damage has been done in its urban strongholds.
The disaster is so bad that Hlaing has broken his government’s self-imposed isolation to appeal for help from the outside world. But the country’s inaccessibility will remain a huge obstacle to aid efforts.
Image: Rescuers work at the construction site where a high-rise collapsed in Bangkok. Pic: AP
The US president has promised Myanmar aid for the earthquake. On the same day, his administration was letting go of the last of USAID staff to lose their jobs.
In reality, Trump has fired most of the people most expert at organising help after this earthquake and the means to provide it. This will be the first major disaster to suffer the brunt of his devastating cuts.
Myanmar is a deeply superstitious country. The generals who have ruled it since the end of colonial rule have consulted astrologers and use talismanic objects and animals, including white elephants, to protect their grip on power.
But earthquakes are thought to portend great change in Myanmar and sometimes the fall of leaders. That in itself may accelerate the toppling of its hated junta.
It remains powerful, supplied by ally China with advanced weaponry. It has used fighter jets to wreak havoc and carnage on opponents and civilians as the civil war has intensified.
But its enemies are gaining strength too, improvising with drones and other tactics to maintain momentum against a regime that lost all legitimacy. They will be encouraged in the belief that this disaster will bring closer their day of victory.
Bangkok felt like it erupted into chaos when the tremors hit.
No one knew what was happening and there was no warning.
In a city where lives are lived, there were suddenly incongruous sights in the sky – pools overflowing, high-rise walkways connecting expensive apartments broken apart, and huddles of confused and scared people outside offices.
The busy skytrain that millions rely on in Thailand‘s capital was shut down, bringing the city to a grinding halt and people struggling to move around.
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1:00
Mayhem in Thailand as Myanmar quake shocks
My producer Rachael and I had to share a motorbike to try and get to the scene of the worst building collapse – a slow route through gridlocked traffic.
On arrival, the devastation was clear. A mass of rubble, a sea of rescue workers, and panicked onlookers.
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We were told that 90 construction workers were still trapped inside.
One of the men trying to rescue them told me he had heard some voices and was hopeful they would be able to pull people out alive.
But he acknowledged it was “very difficult” work and, as he spoke, we were engulfed with dust, the light already fading as specialist bulldozers were brought in.
Many of those inside, we were told, were Cambodians about to finish building the structure.
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0:20
Moment building collapses in earthquake
Why no warnings?
As the rescue effort continued, Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra suddenly arrived.
I asked her why there were no warnings – in a nation that 20 years ago suffered a devastating earthquake.
She did not respond.
But many will no doubt continue to press her government on why there was no emergency alert system, no texts, nothing. Not for hours after, at least.
“It’s cold as s*** here,” said the US vice president when he touched down in Greenland.
He meant it, both literally and metaphorically.
There was no warm welcome from islanders for JD Vance and the second lady.
A small US team with a list of engagements evolved into a large delegation and just one engagement.
Everything changed when the organisers of a dogsled race, an annual spectacle on the cultural calendar, said the Americans weren’t invited.
The scaled-up US delegation and scaled-down schedule did little to address the concerns of Greenlanders.
The White House didn’t just send the vice president, they sent embattled national security advisor Mike Waltz too.
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Instead of being greeted by residents, they were greeted by their own troops manning an outpost tasked with warning them about long-range missile attacks.
And the vice president, who’s fast becoming the chief critic of Europe, made Denmark the focus of his attack.
But listen carefully to his speech and you’ll hear the same word twice: “think”.
“This is what we think is going to happen” re. their hopes islanders will vote for independence from Denmark and then engage with America.
“We do not think military action will be necessary,” he added, when asked about that potential.
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2:22
Why does the US want Greenland?
There is a world of difference between thinking something and knowing something.
So, what happens if what JD Vance “thinks” will or won’t happen doesn’t come to pass?