Our hottest early MLB hot takes: From a Cy Young trifecta to an MVP candidate you’ve never heard of
We are two weeks into the 2025 MLB season, and teams have played about a dozen of their 162 games. While that isn’t enough for bold declarations, we’re going to skip right past that fact and have some fun.
As we do every year at this time, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed so far, with their boldest prediction based on the small sample. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted with two ground rules: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they actually believe can happen.
Some of our predictions came in hot, while others have a milder vibe, so we have taken the liberty of ranking the predictions by their MLB stadium weather equivalent and breaking down why they landed in their tier.
April at Comerica Park in Detroit
There’s a reason the Yankees and Tigers are playing day games this week.
A breakout player smorgasbord
I’ll go with a collection of predictions and expect three of the four to hit: Cristopher Sanchez finishes top three in National League Cy Young voting, Spencer Schwellenbach posts at least 4.0 WAR and gets NL Cy Young votes, Jack Leiter finishes top five in American League ROY voting, and Tyler Soderstrom posts at least 2.5 WAR after entering this year with minus-0.7 career WAR.
Sanchez is the elder statesman of the group at 28 years old, but I’m mostly betting on young players turning the corner (Leiter and Soderstrom), building on what they’ve already done (Schwellenbach) or making the leap with a couple extra ticks of velo (Sanchez). — Kiley McDaniel
Why it’s out in the cold: This strategy worked out for you last year, but as the old bold prediction saying goes: Someone who has multiple hot takes, has no hot takes. If you hit on any of these, we think you will consider it a win and tell us you got it right — just like the fan who lets everyone know they called the big March Madness upset but doesn’t mention they filled out four different brackets.
Pete Alonso is going to set a career high with 135 RBIs
Pete Alonso’s offensive production has declined over the past three seasons, but he already looks like a better hitter in 2025. The four-time All-Star is making smarter swing decisions. He’s clubbing balls the other way. He’s playing like someone with millions of dollars on the line next winter after a disappointing initial free agent experience (because he is that someone).
That motivation, combined with having Francisco Lindor and the on-base machine known as Juan Soto hit in front of him, should generate improved numbers, including 135 RBIs, which would surpass his career high of 131, after he accumulated just 88 last season. — Jorge Castillo
Why it’s out in the cold: On the surface, 135 is a lot of runs batted in. It’s a total that would have led the NL in all but one full season over the past 15 years. The thing bringing down the heat on this take is in your last sentence: Alonso has already driven in 131 runs once in his career — and now he has Soto batting in front of him.
May at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
What feels warm to you, might not to others.
The Mariners will finish the season right where they are now: in last place
I had to talk myself into this hot take, but the more I thought about it the more I believed it really could happen. First off, predicting the Mariners for as low as third place isn’t all that hard. Houston and Texas have good teams. The hotter take comes in having the Athletics and Angels beat them out as well.
It all comes down to those teams being able to pitch just enough while out-hitting the perennially challenged-at-the-plate Mariners. And here’s the thing about Seattle’s pitching staff: It’s dominant at home but just OK on the road. Last year, the Mariners ranked 19th in road ERA. There are some in the industry who already like the Athletics as much as the Mariners, so the real leap comes with the Angels. If healthy, the A’s will narrowly beat out Seattle for fourth place. — Jesse Rogers
Why it’s more mild than hot: The Mariners won 16 games more than the A’s last season and 25 more than the Angels, so we’re not denying that this is where our takes really start warming up. And we love that you worked in some industry sources for some good old-fashioned hot takes reporting.
The true trouble with your take is that while you were willing to provide us with something that feels like that first warm spring day in the Pacific Northwest, we have another AL West standings prediction coming that blows yours away.
Mike Trout will win his first Gold Glove … as a right fielder
A Gold Glove is the only individual accolade Mike Trout has not attained (team success is another story, of course). He desperately wanted one in center field, but the competition in the American League — with Adam Jones, Byron Buxton, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Kiermaier — was too stiff. And Trout, frankly, wasn’t consistently elite enough.
Now, at age 33, he plays right field.
The transition was motivated by a desire to keep Trout healthy after he missed 41% of the Angels’ games over the past four years. But Angels people have raved about how easily he has made the switch and how good he looks in an outfield corner. They believe he can be a difference-maker defensively there, just like Torii Hunter was when he made the same move late in his career. And so this year, Trout will do what Hunter couldn’t — win a Gold Glove as a right fielder. And if you’re thinking this isn’t a spicy take, take a look at what happened to Trout on Tuesday night, losing a fly ball while ranging down the right-field line in Tampa.
There will be growing pains as Trout adjusts to the flight of the ball from a different spot, but he will be dynamic nonetheless – and by the end of the year, his glove will be gold. — Alden Gonzalez
Why it’s more mild than hot: If we knew Trout was going to play at least 130 games this season, saying the former center fielder would win a Gold Glove in right field wouldn’t seem like going out on a limb. So what you are really doing here is predicting Trout will stay healthy enough to win a Gold Glove in 2025. Which, given his recent history, is certainly bold. But Trout is still only 33 years old and has to stay healthy one of these years — right? Let’s hope.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to finish in the top 3 in the NL MVP race
That might not seem like a hot take based on his history — he has already finished fourth and third in the MVP voting in his career. But after missing all of 2022 because of injury and PED suspension, this will be the year he returns to preeminence as an evolved player at age 26 — he’s more patient, putting himself in counts to do more damage. His small sample of early-season numbers are eye-opening: He has more walks than strikeouts and has reached base in about 45% of his plate appearances. — Buster Olney
Why it’s more mild than hot: The NL is stacked with individual talent this year, so predicting anyone not named Ohtani, Betts, Soto or Lindor will break through near the top of MVP voting has some heat to it. But we have indeed seen MVP-level play from Tatis during his young career, and at age 26, calling his place near the top of this year’s voting seems a little more realistic than bold.
June at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
These would be really hot, but there’s something holding back the heat.
Aaron Judge will post a .500 OBP for the season
This is unattainable, right? Probably. I hasn’t been done in MLB since 2004 (Barry Bonds), in the AL since 1957 (Mickey Mantle) and by a right-handed hitter since 1943 (Josh Gibson). Judge logged a career-high .458 OBP last season, including an astronomical .496 in 62 games after the All-Star break. He’s likely to walk more frequently this season (133 walks in 2024) without Juan Soto clogging first base, and the metrics indicate he’s being umpired more favorably, especially at the bottom of the zone. — Paul Hembekides
Why it’s hot-ish: Bonds! Mantle! Gibson! Those names were supposed to impress us, right? Well, they did. There’s only one thing keeping your take from joining our hottest tiers: the man it is about. Judge has made a career out of joining the most revered names in baseball history at the top of so many hitting leaderboards that almost nothing he could do in a season would surprise us at this point.
Luis Arraez will be the first player in more than three decades with at least 600 plate appearances and fewer than 20 strikeouts
Oh, wow, you’re really going out a limb here, Passan. Luis Arráez doesn’t strike out a lot. Profound. A fair criticism, sure, but I’m not sure you understand the rarity of a player striking out fewer than 20 times with that sort of bulk. Tony Gwynn never did it. Wade Boggs never did it. The last player to log at least 600 plate appearances with punchouts in the teens was Ozzie Smith in 1993 (603 and 18, respectively). Before that, it was Bill Buckner and Rich Dauer in 1980.
Arraez struck out 29 times in 672 plate appearances last year, but he’s off to a far better start this season — zero in 48 trips to the plate — and at 28 years old his contact skills are nearing their peak. Arráez’s bat-to-ball ability has been great; this year, it will ascend to historically so. — Jeff Passan
Why it’s hot-ish: This is hotter than it might seem. Twenty strikeouts is a long weekend for some of today’s hitters. So why isn’t it in one of the next tiers? It suffers from the same thing as the Judge prediction above — the player it’s about. Arraez struck out 11 times in the first month of the 2024 season, then never K’d more than six times in a calendar month again, including just five times after the All-Star break. Those numbers are just silly in today’s strikeout-fueled game, and they show Arraez is more than capable of making your prediction a reality.
July at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento
At least it’s a dry heat, right?
Athletics prospect Nick Kurtz debuts in April, finishes with a top-10 OPS, wins AL Rookie of the Year
Kurtz, the left-handed-hitting slugger chosen with the No. 4 pick just last summer out of Wake Forest, is ready for the major leagues, like now. Now! Kurtz, 22, produced ridiculous college numbers, showing off his power and plate discipline; starred in brief action in the minors last season; and is already tearing up Triple-A. You want to attract fans in Sacramento? Move 50-homer possibility Brent Rooker to left field and install the next Jim Thome at DH, eradicating the Miguel Andujar–Seth Brown platoon. Score more runs. Score many more runs. Kurtz helps do that. Now. – Eric Karabell
Why it’s hot: It’s currently April 9, 2025. A year ago today, Nick Kurtz put together a two-home run, five-RBI game — against Coastal Carolina while batting cleanup for Wake Forest. Since then, Kurtz has gone No. 4 in the draft, landed at No. 52 in Kiley McDaniel’s preseason top 100 and torn up Triple-A pitching this spring.
But you know what really got us here? The way you just casually slipped in a comp to a Hall of Fame slugger with 612 career home runs midway through your reasoning. Whether he’s in the majors in time to make your Rookie of the Year prediction possible remains to be seen. But let’s all hope Kurtz is up dropping bombs like Jim Thome in the Sacramento heat by the time July rolls around.
Kris Bubic will be a top-five Cy Young finisher
My annual disclaimer: Hot-taking is just not a comfortable space to me, either offering them or consuming them. But I am contractually obligated to participate, so I chose something that feels like a long shot but is based on a real observation.
Bubic is a new guy. He learned last season how his stuff could play at the big league level, working in increasingly high-leverage bullpen spots down the stretch and into the playoffs. He has taken that approach, added a new slider and slotted into the Royals’ overall rotation design that emphasizes aggression in the zone and the pitch efficiency that goes along with it. Bubic has sparkled, ranking among the top 10 starters in average exit velocity allowed on pitches in the zone. Last year, the Royals had two top-five Cy Young finishers, and they’re going to do it again. Only this time, it’ll be Bubic joining Cole Ragans on that leaderboard. — Bradford Doolittle
Why it’s hot-ish: If we were simply ranking pitchers in the Royals rotation by likelihood of finishing in the top five of AL Cy Young voting, Bubic might not land in the top three. And even with his hot start to 2025, he has a career mark of 11-27 with a 4.81 ERA as a starter. So, yeah, this is a hot take by our standards.
There’s only one thing keeping this from landing in our hottest tier: We’ve seen this story of unproven pitcher to top-flight starter play out for the Royals before — first with Cole Ragans, then Seth Lugo last season. And we read an excellent article going into the season that has us believing Kansas City might have a formula for this success. You should check it out, it’s by someone named Bradfor — hey, wait. We see what’s going on here.
The New York Yankees will end 2025 outside the top 10 in home runs
Torpedo, schmorpedo! Yes, the Yankees’ first series of the season saw the sparks fly and birthed the “new era of baseball” with 15 total home runs, thanks in large part to innovative lumber construction. Never mind the fact that two of the three starters they victimized are already on the injured list. Never mind the fact that, aside from Aaron Judge, who could well hit 60, there’s not a single other player on this team who is likely to hit more than 25. Yes, this team will win a ton of games, but they’re simply not going to be anything special in the power department. — AJ Mass
Why it’s hot: Let’s see here. At press time, the Yankees lead the sport in home runs. They led the sport in home runs last season as well. The torpedo bats you decry have been a bit of a talking point so far this season. And the Yankees also employ a guy named Judge who is capable of hitting 60-plus home runs in any given season.
Yet you predict not just that they won’t lead the majors, or the AL, in home runs, but finish outside the top third of the majors. Yeah, that is as hot as one of those scorching summer days in the Bronx when the ball is flying out of Yankee Stadium. You know, the kind of day when the Yankees hit a ton of long balls on the way to leading the majors again.
August at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa
Are you sure you can handle this heat?
The Angels will win the AL West
The longest playoff drought in the majors is going to end. In fact, not only are the Los Angeles Angels — a franchise that last played in the postseason in 2014 — going to make the playoffs, they’re going to win the AL West.
Yes, this says more about the division than it does about the Angels. But supporting evidence exists. The Athletics have no pitching. The Mariners have no hitting. The Astros have no Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. And while the Rangers are off to a hot start, it’s a mirage: They’re 8-3 and have been outscored.
That leaves the Angels. A potential stellar bullpen. A decent rotation. A stud catcher in Logan O’Hoppe. A healthy — so far — Mike Trout. And Zach Neto hasn’t even played yet. Yep, 82-80 just might get it done. — David Schoenfield
Why it’s scorching: Let’s start with some numbers: 99, 89, 89. Those are the numbers of losses the Angels have finished with the past three seasons. Now let’s add some names: Jorge Soler, Kenley Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks. Those are free agents the Angels added in the offseason. Soler is the youngest of the group at 33.
You’ve made a strong case that the rest of the AL West is going to be down (as did another hot taker earlier on) — but predicting that a team coming off a 99-loss season is going to ride a few aging offseason acquisitions to a division crown is a take so hot another participant debated changing their own prediction after getting wind of yours. The only thing keeping this pick from being the hottest of the hot is that you finished off your case by predicting they will simply finish a couple games over .500.
The top three pitchers in NL Cy Young balloting will all come from the Phillies
There have been several cases of teammates finishing one-two in the Cy Young balloting, and the 1974 Los Angeles Dodgers placed three among the top four, but three pitchers claiming the top spots? That has never happened. I’m predicting it does this season, as the Phillies’ top four of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo is competitive with — and, most importantly, more likely to remain healthy — than that of the Dodgers. I’m going with a Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola final order. — Tristan Cockcroft
Why it’s scorching: You had us at “that has never happened.” This prediction is what hot takes are all about: It’s historic, it’s bold and yet it somehow feels attainable. Just calling that the Phillies would finish 1-2-3 in the voting would have been enough, yet you went out and gave us a predicted order and a bonus name to watch, too.
There’s only one thing wrong with this prediction. His name is Paul Skenes, he pitches on the other side of the Keystone State — and he just might have something to say about a Phillies sweep.
Giants center fielder Jung Hoo Lee will win the NL batting title and finish in the top 5 in MVP voting
Lee’s rookie season was cut short by injury after just 37 games, and if he had 15 fewer at bats in 2024, we would add NL Rookie of the Year to this prediction.
Lee is Luis Arraez with far more speed and extra-base potential. He sprays the ball, which makes him difficult to defend, and he bats behind Willy Adames and in front of Matt Chapman, which makes him more likely to: (A) get pitches to hit and (B) hit with runners on base. — Tim Keown
Why it’s scorching: We here at Hot Take Headquarters love a good two-pronged prediction, and this one is a doozy. Believe it or not, calling a batting title is not as bold as one might think. Lesser-known hitters leading the league in batting average happens. Just look at this list of recent league champions: Yandy Diaz, Yuli Gurriel, Tim Anderson, Jeff McNeil and Dee Gordon. But the second half of your prediction is where you truly level up the heat.
Last we checked, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all call the NL home. So, in essence, you are saying Hoo Lee — someone many of our readers are scrambling to learn about as they digest this take — will be better than all but four players on that list? That’s as hot as a summer afternoon in the Florida sun. Now let’s check back in August to see how it is holding up.
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Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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