NHL Awards Watch: Final regular-season ballots for seven different trophies
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Greg Wyshynski
Welcome to the final NHL Awards Watch of the 2024-25 season, which offers one last snapshot of the races just days before ballots are due to arrive in voters’ inboxes.
As you’ll see, the battles for MVP, rookie of the year and top defenseman have shifted heavily toward a few favorites after months of volatility.
We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Keep in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists, broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams, and general managers handle the Vezina.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Click here for the updated point-scoring standings.
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy
Click here for the updated goal-scoring standings.
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
Finalists: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets; Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
The MVP was Connor Hellebuyck’s award to lose. Then it was Nathan MacKinnon’s award to lose, as he snatched the lead from the Jets goaltender in the March edition of Awards Watch. But Draisaitl was always stalking that lead, putting together a season that checked several boxes for being the most valuable player to his team. As this thrilling race nears the finish line, it’s the Edmonton star that had the strongest last kick.
“I don’t think it’s even particularly close at this point,” a Draisaitl voter argued.
Draisaitl earned 40% of the first-place votes from our panelists, taking over the Hart Trophy lead from MacKinnon. As of Wednesday, he had an eight-goal lead for the Rocket Richard Trophy and was third in the league in total points. But his case reaches beyond traditional offensive stats: Evolving Hockey has Draisaitl first in the NHL in goals scored above replacement (29) and has him adding nearly five wins to the Oilers this season, with a WAR of 4.8.
He plays a complete game, too. He’s third among Edmonton forwards in goals against per 60 minutes (2.28) through 70 games. As you’ll see in another trophy vote later in this Awards Watch, his defensive prowess hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Finally, there’s the Connor McDavid of it all. When Draisaitl won his only Hart Trophy in 2019-20, he played seven more games than McDavid and had 13 more points than the Edmonton captain, who still finished fifth for the Hart that season. This season? Draisaitl had played eight more games than McDavid through Tuesday, and was 16 points ahead of him. From a points-per-game perspective, this could be McDavid’s lowest output since 2017-18.
It’s hard for Draisaitl to escape McDavid’s shadow in the MVP race. It’s also difficult for him to shake the idea, held by some voters, that he’s a product of McDavid in some way. But given McDavid’s injury struggles this season and the incredible season Draisaitl is having on both ends, the conditions are right for Leon to get his flowers.
“He produced 16 points in nine games without McDavid,” a voter pointed out.
“Anyone who’s watched the Oilers try to compete without the league’s leading scorer should concur he’s the most valuable player to his team in 2024-25,” another voter explained. “Even with Connor McDavid back, this Edmonton club won’t last a minute in the postseason without Draisaitl healthy.”
Still, some voters cautioned that the margin remains razor-thin in the MVP race.
“It’s Draisaitl by a whisker over Nathan MacKinnon,” a voter noted.
“It’s Draisaitl narrowly leading, with Connor Hellebuyck second on my ballot,” another revealed.
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Draisaitl’s second goal of the night gives Oilers an OT win
Leon Draisaitl notches his second goal of the game in overtime to help the Oilers defeat the Flames.
MacKinnon and Hellebuyck tied with 20% of the first-place votes to take the other two finalist spots.
MacKinnon is trying to become the first back-to-back league MVP since Alex Ovechkin in 2007-09. Since 1980, only three players have captured the Hart in consecutive seasons: Ovechkin, Dominik Hasek (1996-98) and Wayne Gretzky, who went on a run of eight straight league MVPs from 1979 through 1987.
MacKinnon’s best path to doing so would be to win the NHL points scoring race, as he and Nikita Kucherov are battling it out for the Art Ross right until the end. It would be the first scoring title of MacKinnon’s career.
Hellebuyck is trying to become the first goalie to be named MVP since Montreal’s Carey Price in 2014-15, and just the third goalie to win the award in the last 25 seasons.
He has the work rate and the responsibility for his team’s success in the standings: The Jets have 53 wins, and he has 44 of them. He has the traditional numbers, still clinging to slim leads in save percentage and goals-against average entering Wednesday night. He’s top four in goals saved above expected as well.
“It’s between him and Draisaitl for me,” a voter declared. “He’s been the best goalie by far all season and has propelled the Jets to a much better record.”
“Connor Hellebuyck is deserving of consideration, but he needs to finish strong while likely starting four of the final five games in the regular season,” another proposed.
While MacKinnon and Hellebuyck are the clear second choices behind Draisaitl, one of them might not make the final three. There’s a lot of enthusiasm — and more than a little momentum — behind Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov, who had roughly 17% of the first-place votes.
Kucherov, who won the Hart in 2019, is trying to capture his third NHL scoring title, trailing MacKinnon by a point entering Wednesday night despite playing six fewer games. One of the criteria voters tend to use to assess a player’s value to his team is the gap between the MVP candidate and the next leading scorer on the roster. Through 73 games, Kucherov had a preposterous 32-point canyon between himself and Brandon Hagel, the Lightning’s next highest scorer.
“I’ve been on the MacKinnon train much of the season, but Kucherov has really blown me away with his second half,” a Kucherov voter explained.
“Another phenomenal season getting overlooked by many,” another voter noted. “He drives this offense in a more subtle way than MacKinnon, McDavid or Draisaitl do, so his work does not jump off the page.”
Kucherov’s MVP chances are legitimate, if underappreciated.
“It’s crazy that sportsbooks have Kucherov at 50-1. He could be the league’s leading scorer and should have won this last season, too,” a voter claimed.
The only other player to receive first-place Hart Trophy consideration was Jack Eichel of the Vegas Golden Knights. Like Kucherov, he has a considerable lead over the second-place scorer on his team, 26 points better than Mark Stone.
“He deserves more dark-horse Hart love,” a voter posited.
Other players mentioned down the ballot included Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk, Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes and a plucky upstart in Washington named Alex Ovechkin who we understand has a knack for goal scoring. “Hearing from some voters that Ovechkin is making a push in this category,” one voter revealed.
In the home stretch, Draisaitl has the MVP lead, but all four of the top candidates have convincing cases and passionate voting blocs.
“This is the HARDEST year to pick a Hart winner,” a voter declared. “Can there be a tie?”
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks; Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
Makar has been a Norris finalist for four straight seasons and won the award in 2021-22. Apparently, he has decided to leave no margin for error or room for debate with the most dominant offensive season of his frequently dominant NHL career.
The Avalanche defenseman had a career-best 91 points through 79 games, which was 16 points better than the NHL’s next-highest-scoring D-man in Werenski. But the truly stunning stat was his goal total: Makar is just the ninth defenseman in NHL history to break the 30-goal mark, and the first to do so since Washington’s Mike Green in 2008-09.
Makar likes to downplay the “this generation’s Bobby Orr” label he has gotten, even when it comes from people such as Wayne Gretzky. Scoring goals at this rate as a defenseman does little to dispel that conjecture.
“We are in a golden age of young defensemen in the NHL, and he’s the best of the bunch,” a voter beamed.
“The 30 goals stands out, but this guy does it all for the Avalanche in all situations,” another quipped.
“The 30 goals and the fading of Hughes’ and Werenski’s teams from the playoff picture seals it,” another Makar backer explained.
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Cale Makar uses a excellent fake on a terrific goal for Colorado
Cale Makar lights the lamp, giving the Avalanche a 1-0 lead in the first period vs. the Flames.
Werenski took over the Norris lead last month, riding the momentum from his star-making performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off and the Blue Jackets’ inspiring playoff push. But with the Eastern Conference wild-card race seemingly settled, and Makar putting the pedal down offensively, Werenski’s time on the throne was temporary.
Werenski earned 45% of the first-place votes last month. That percentage is down to 20% this month. The MVP chatter that surrounded him in March has also quieted down considerably. But the Columbus defenseman still has his fervent admirers among voters, and rightfully so: He had 75 points through 76 games to lead the Blue Jackets, while skating nearly 27 minutes per game (26:58), by far the most ice time on average in the NHL.
“I’m still sticking with Zach Werenski,” a voter declared.
“If the Blue Jackets got in, Werenski would be the MVP,” another stated. “Cale Makar will win, but Werenski has played almost a full minute and a half more a game and does everything for Columbus.”
While it’s not what Avalanche or Blue Jackets fans likely want to acknowledge, this season’s Norris race will always be remembered for its great “what if?” scenario, aka Vancouver star Quinn Hughes, who had this award nearly locked up before injuries derailed his season. Hughes has played 64 games and has 74 points this season, including 16 goals. His 1.16 points-per-game average is slightly better than Makar’s (1.15).
Hughes was the only other defenseman to receive first-place support among our panelists, but with just 3% of the vote he was a distant third.
“If only Quinn Hughes had been healthy all season,” a voter mused.
“Quinn Hughes might have made this race tighter had he not been injured, but Makar is the runaway winner, with apologies to Zach Werenski, who is a deserving finalist and is having an excellent season,” another offered.
Other defenseman mentioned down the ballot include Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman, Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson, Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin and Montreal rookie sensation Lane Hutson.
Speaking of whom …
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens
Finalists: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks; Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames
Hutson is leading the Calder Trophy race — and it’s an absolute blowout according to the ballots we surveyed.
The Canadiens rookie earned 87% of the first-place votes in the final Awards Watch, which is an astounding number when one considers he was at just 11% last month. Since Feb. 1, Hutson had 25 points in 27 games, second most on the Habs in that stretch behind Nick Suzuki (35 points). On the season, Hutson has six goals and 58 assists in 78 games, skating 22:39 per game.
It was obvious since the season opened that Hutson would lead all rookie defensemen in scoring — Drew Helleson of the Ducks is second, trailing Hutson by 51 points. But it’s been astonishing to see Hutson end up leading all rookies in points, considering the talented crop of forwards that were competing with him for the Calder before he left them in his wake.
“Toughest choice among all the awards, but both his play and impact on his team has been ridiculous,” a voter proclaimed. “Will probably get some Norris love.”
“Hutson has not only been the best rookie, he’s been one of the league’s most impactful defensemen down the stretch,” another voter added.
Hutson and Wolf had an advantage over Celebrini in the final weeks of the Calder race: They were playing meaningful games, while the Sharks rookie was playing out the string. The Flames are still chasing the wild card. The Canadiens are in a playoff spot and look good to clinch it, thanks in no small part to Hutson.
“No offense to Macklin Celebrini or Matvei Michkov, but Hutson played in meaningful games and neither of them did,” a voter explained.
“The amount of points Hutson has put up this season is one thing, but the kid has also elevated his play whenever the games started to mean more,” another opined. “The Canadiens have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past few weeks and Hutson was a big reason why.”
“Lane Hutson cemented himself as my probable No. 1 choice with his performance down the stretch, and his defensive improvement over the course of the year,” another Hutson backer quipped. “I still think Celebrini was the best first-year player I saw this season though.”
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Lane Hutson lights the lamp
Lane Hutson lights the lamp
Celebrini, 18, led the Calder race over multiple months before Hutson’s closing argument. His 57 points in 65 games (including 21 goals) is very impressive on a very bad hockey team — there’s a chance he could end up with better numbers than last year’s Calder winner Connor Bedard in a similar amount of games. Celebrini’s 0.88 points per game is slightly higher than that of Hutson (0.83) too. But the time Celebrini missed to injury this season likely cost him the rookie crown.
“Celebrini’s injury hurt his chances and Montreal is going to the playoffs,” a voter concluded.
“I was comfortably strapped on the Macklin Celebrini wagon most of this season, but I’m finally clambering off to ride Hutson’s cart,” another voter relayed. “The 21-year-old should wrap 2024-25 within a sniff of the 80-point mark, ranking fourth only behind Makar, Werenski, and [Quinn] Hughes. He also isn’t serving as the defensive liability many anticipated.”
Celebrini actually ended up with the same first-place vote share as Wolf (around 7%). Like Hutson among defensemen, Wolf has clearly been the NHL’s top rookie goaltender, with 26 wins and a .911 save percentage in 49 games. He was a critical reason the Flames flirted with an unexpected playoff berth of most of the season.
Several voters indicated that Wolf would be second on their ballots behind Hutson.
“The dynamic defenseman and his Canadiens’ late surge pushes him past Dustin Wolf in my mind,” a voter noted.
Among other players mentioned down the ballot for the Calder included Michkov of the Flyers, Zack Bolduc of the St. Louis Blues and Logan Stankoven of the Carolina Hurricanes.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award.
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings; Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
There will be three finalists for the Vezina Trophy, and that will be a nice nod to the achievements of two NHL netminders. But they will not win the Vezina. Connor Hellebuyck will win the Vezina, for the second straight season. The only question left will be the margin of that victory.
If it were the PHWA doing the voting, Hellebuyck would get … all the votes. For the second straight month, the Winnipeg netminder was a unanimous choice from our panel of voters.
“Dominated from start to finish,” a voter concluded.
“The only goalie who doubles as a Hart contender. Might as well engrave that sucker now,” another voter declared.
While Hellebuyck has gotten the majority of credit for the Jets’ outstanding season and pursuit of the Presidents’ Trophy — 44 wins in 60 starts underscores that — his numbers aren’t actually a ton better than those of Vasilevskiy, whom the majority of our voters rated second on their ballots.
Entering Wednesday, Hellebuyck had a .924 save percentage, 2.02 goals-against average and seven shutouts. Vasilevskiy had a .923 save percentage, 2.14 goals-against average and six shutouts. The Lightning goalie has a better goals-saved above expected (17.98) than Hellebuyck (16.69), but the Winnipeg goalie’s fancy stats are also pretty strong.
“Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy are tap-ins for the Vezina,” a voter argued.
Kuemper leads all goalies in goals saved above expected (19.1) and has a better save percentage on chances off the rush (.933) than the other two goalies. His .922 save percentage in 47 games puts him right behind Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy as well.
“Darcy Kuemper has quietly put together an excellent season to complete the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade tree and should be a finalist for the award,” a voter noted.
“Finalist” is probably the best anyone not named Connor Hellebuyck could hope for this season, as the Jets netminder appears primed to be the first back-to-back Vezina winner since Martin Brodeur of the New Jersey Devils won from 2006-08. This will also be Hellebuyck’s third Vezina overall; only Brodeur, Dominik Hasek (6) and Patrick Roy (3) have won that many since the trophy’s current criteria was adopted in 1981.
Among the other goalies mentioned down the ballot: Logan Thompson of the Capitals, Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars, Filip Gustavsson of the Wild and Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers; Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
While his vote share fell for the third straight Awards Watch, Barkov has led this race consistently and looks primed to win the Selke for the third time in five seasons.
In February, Barkov had 60% of the first-place votes. Then it was 56% in March. Now it’s down to 50% of the first-place votes, but that’s still a very comfortable margin for the Panthers star ahead of the field.
“Going to take a pretty special defensive season to unseat Aleksander Barkov at this point, and I don’t think anyone managed it,” a voter opined.
The Selke is no stranger to repeat champions. If Barkov wins the Selke, he’ll join Patrice Bergeron, Pavel Datsyuk and Rod Brind’Amour as back-to-back winners of the trophy — Bergeron having done it last from 2021-23, the fifth and sixth Selkes of his career.
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Panthers prevail as Barkov nets game’s first goal in OT
Aleksander Barkov scores the winning goal in overtime to lift the Panthers past the Blue Jackets.
Coming in a distant second place is Reinhart, Barkov’s teammate, who earned around 17% of the first-place votes.
“Reinhart has been the more impressive of the Florida duo,” one voter argued. “Been on the ice for fewer expected goal against, near identical goals against in similar matchups and Reinhart has continued stellar defensive play with Barkov out of the lineup.”
Right after Reinhart is a new face in the Selke voting top three: Draisaitl, whose defensive prowess is one reason he’s ascended to the top of the MVP race.
“He’s not getting near enough recognition for how good he has been at both ends of the ice this season,” a voter pointed out. “The only problem is he doesn’t kill penalties.”
One voter didn’t think that the special teams issue was an issue for Draisaitl, who earned around 13% of the vote.
“Name another forward who played over 800 minutes at 5-on-5 and was around 60% in shot, goal and expected goal share,” they explained. “Looking at the numbers, his are all better than Barkov and he played 200 more minutes. Barkov playing 100 minutes on the PK doesn’t change it.”
Six other players all received first-place votes for the Selke from our panelists, but not enough to crack the top three: Anthony Cirelli (Lightning), Jack Eichel (Golden Knights), Nico Hischier (Devils), Adam Lowry (Jets), Mitch Marner (Maple Leafs) and Jordan Staal (Hurricanes). All of them are seeking their first Selke win.
“Lowry has a great goal share, including against elite opponents, and takes lots of tough matchups,” a voter offered.
What the Selke comes down to in the final days of the season: Whether any players that are on the voters’ radar can overcome Barkov — and, more to the point, Barkov’s reputation.
“I love the complete game of Barkov, but he’s not quite performing at his usual level,” one voter who opted for an alternative option revealed.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.
Traditionally, this award goes to a player with a top 20 point total and the lowest penalty minutes among those players.
Vegas’ Jack Eichel has 93 points in 76 games with eight penalty minutes. Montreal’s Nick Suzuki has 86 points in 78 games with six penalty minutes. But Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point has 79 points in 72 games with one minor penalty on the season — a tripping call against Toronto on Nov. 30. So, not even roughing. What a gentleman!
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Scott Arniel, Winnipeg Jets; Martin St. Louis, Montreal Canadiens
“Spencer Carbery and if anyone says otherwise, they’re kidding themselves.”
That was the sentiment of one voter we surveyed, and they’re not alone. Carbery earned 77% of the first-place votes from the writers for having led the Capitals through an unprecedented season: From big offseason additions through a jump from the wild card to the Presidents’ Trophy race through Alex Ovechkin‘s successful pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record and losing Ovechkin to a broken leg after the hottest start of his career.
All the while, Carbery kept the Caps focused and effective. Through 77 games, they had the fourth highest points percentage (.695) in franchise history.
“The Jack Adams almost never goes to the coach of the best team in the league, but it should this year. Not only did the Capitals improve a ton from last year, not only did they manage to stay afloat with Ovechkin injured for a month, but the way he kept that team composed while the media hoopla that was Ovechkin’s goal chase was going one was also impressive,” a voter explained. “They didn’t stray too far away from their identity to get it done and they kept winning games in the process. He deserves a lot of credit.”
Carbery is in his second season in Washington.
“He should have won this last year when he dragged this group of bums into the playoffs. Now he’s got a much better team, in first place overall,” another voter declared. “I believe his ability to get Ovi to buy into his approach has been pivotal to both Ovi’s and the team’s success.”
Arniel’s Jets have been right there with the Capitals atop the league. While Connor Hellebuyck gets a majority of the credit for that, some voters feel Arniel should get his flowers in his first season as Jets head coach. He finished with 10% of the first-place votes.
St. Louis moved into the top three candidates with roughly 7% of the first-place votes, thanks to the Canadiens’ stunning late-season rise to a playoff spot.
They aren’t the only team to ride a couple torrid months into a playoff spot. Right behind St. Louis was Jim Montgomery of the St. Louis Blues.
“Despite being fired by the Boston Bruins in November, Montgomery is certainly worthy of consideration for the Jack Adams. He would be the first coach in league history to receive a nomination while guiding multiple teams in one season,” a voter noted.
While St. Louis had more first-place voting support, Montgomery was the second choice for a lot of Carbery voters. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Monty take a top-three spot for the Jack Adams with the Blues in the playoffs.
Falling out of the top three from last month was coach Dean Evason of the Columbus Blue Jackets, as his inspirational group — playing through the shock of star Johnny Gaudreau’s death last August to challenge for a playoff spot — fades in the Eastern Conference wild-card race. He did receive a first-place vote from one of our panelists, and a few voters had him in their top three.
“Dean Evason had the toughest job this season and could still be a sentimental — and deserving — candidate on many ballots,” a voter concluded.
But for the Jack Adams and other awards, it’s all about how the candidates close their seasons. We’re started to see which ones are sprinting through the tape in the end of these awards races.
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Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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