
Handing out April grades for all 30 MLB teams: From many A’s to a surprising F
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David SchoenfieldMay 2, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
In many ways, April baseball unfolded as expected: The National League is top-heavy — and dominating — while the American League might have a dozen teams in the playoff race deep into the season.
It was the month of Aaron Judge, who became just the seventh player to finish April with a .400 batting average and at least 10 home runs. It was a month to remember for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jorge Polanco and Hunter Brown and the San Diego Padres bullpen. It was a month to forget for the Colorado Rockies.
Yes, it’s time for April grades. We’re factoring in preseason expectations, how key players are performing and other factors, like strength of schedule and how young players might be developing. It’s early, and a lot can change. But just look at last season, when the Kansas City Royals started 18-13 and went on to a surprise playoff spot. April does matter.
Let’s start with the biggest winners of the 2025 MLB season so far.
There are hot Aprils that feel legitimate and hot Aprils that don’t look so convincing. This one feels legit. The Mets lead the majors in ERA even without projected rotation members Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, as Kodai Senga looks like a possible ace and Tylor Megill (1.74 ERA, 39 strikeouts in 31 innings) has been so good filling in that he might have earned a permanent slot in the rotation. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have carried the offense with Juan Soto off to a lukewarm start, and the Mets have been almost unbeatable at home, where every game seems to have a playoff atmosphere.
Concerns? Ryne Stanek just lost three games in a week, including blowing two ninth-inning leads, so overall bullpen depth is probably the big one. Obviously, there will be regression from the rotation, and the Mets have played an easy schedule (although they did sweep the Phillies in their biggest head-to-head matchup), but once Soto heats up, watch out.
They’re certainly not going to overpower you, but the Tigers have as much pitching depth as any team in baseball, with more rotation depth than last year’s surprise playoff team and the same impressive bullpen that manager A.J. Hinch does such a good job of mixing and matching. The reemergence of former No. 1 picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson has been a nice boost. The power in the lineup comes primarily from Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, and Torkelson and Greene are striking out a lot, so you’d love to see them eventually add another hitter. But it’s possible the Tigers will run away with the AL Central even without doing that.
Is this going to be a repeat of 2021, when a Giants team came out of nowhere to win 107 games and edge out the Dodgers to become the only team besides L.A. to win the NL West since 2013? I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but the Giants have had some early magic brewing with five walk-off wins — and sometimes that early momentum carries on throughout the entire season.
The interesting thing is it’s not because of anything new that president of baseball operations — and Giants legend — Buster Posey did in the offseason. Willy Adames was the big free agent signing and he has been below replacement value, according to Baseball-Reference. Justin Verlander is winless in six starts with a 4.99 ERA. Meanwhile, Jung Hoo Lee has been the team MVP, Wilmer Flores has been the surprise RBI getter and the bullpen has been outstanding.
Let’s put it this way: The Giants and Dodgers don’t meet for the first time until June 13. That series might be a lot more interesting than we thought before the season started.
After the 2016 team slowly fell apart and players drifted to new teams across the league, the Cubs became not only mediocre but not very interesting. This team is better and a whole bunch of fun. The Cubs are scoring runs in bunches, Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of those players you can’t keep your eyes off and Kyle Tucker is playing at an MVP level. They had a strong April despite a tough schedule — they’re already done with the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks, for example. The season-ending injury to Justin Steele was a huge loss and the bullpen is a concern, but this looks like a team that could win its first full-season division title since 2017.
Back on Opening Day, I looked at who was playing in the season opener for San Diego and said, “The Padres are trying to win with Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Lockridge, Gavin Sheets, Martin Maldonado, Elias Diaz and Jason Heyward.” Needless to say, I was not impressed. The Padres won that day — and, indeed, started 7-0 on their way to a fantastic first month. Heck, you could have even thrown Jose Iglesias, Oscar Gonzalez and Tyler Wade into that above list. Some of these guys have played well while others haven’t — but it’s mostly been about Fernando Tatis Jr., Nick Pivetta and the best bullpen in the majors. San Diego has managed to overcome the early injury to Jackson Merrill, but we’ll see how this lack of depth holds up over 162 games.
It’s been quite the roller coaster of storylines and headlines for the Yankees: Gerrit Cole’s season-ending injury, the torpedo bats, Giancarlo Stanton’s tennis elbows, Ben Rice crushing it, Trent Grisham suddenly turning into Mickey Mantle, Devin Williams imploding as the closer, Max Fried sitting at 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA. Most of all though: Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge. He had a season for the ages in 2022, was somehow better in 2024 and is somehow better again so far in 2025, hitting an insane .427/.521/.761 with 10 home runs and 32 RBIs in 31 games. From May 1, 2024, through April 30, 2025, Judge played 158 games and hit .368 with 62 home runs. It’s hard to fathom, in this age of pitching, that a hitter can be this good.
Your fun stat of the week: The Mariners are second in the majors in road OPS! Yes, the team known for its starting pitching might actually be a good offensive team. You certainly wouldn’t have said that the first two weeks of the season when, playing primarily at home, the Mariners started 4-8 and were hitting just .200.
Since then, they’ve won seven series in a row, despite losing starting right fielder Victor Robles and starting second baseman Ryan Bliss to what will be nearly seasonlong injuries. But Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco have combined for 19 home runs and Andres Munoz is 11-for-11 in save opportunities. Seattle has been without George Kirby all season and the rotation depth will now be further tested as Logan Gilbert just hit the injured list for the first time in his career.
The starting pitching has been a little rickety and the defensive metrics are the worst in the majors — it won’t help that calling up Nick Kurtz to play first base forced Tyler Soderstrom to the outfield, a position he has never played — but this is an exciting young lineup worth checking out. Soderstrom and Brent Rooker have been mashing home runs, Jacob Wilson is a contact master from the Joe Sewell school of hitting (look him up!), Lawrence Butler is getting going and now Kurtz, the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft, will get an opportunity. Playing in a minor league park adds an additional element of theater, including the grass seating area. The defense probably prevents this team from being a surprise playoff contender, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if that does happen.
The Dodgers started 8-0 but have been sort of mediocre since then and have a growing list of issues and concerns. Blake Snell is out with shoulder inflammation and hasn’t pitched since April 2. Tyler Glasnow pitched 18 innings in five starts and also landed on the IL with shoulder discomfort. Justin Wrobleski and Bobby Miller each had a spot start and got hammered, leading to a couple of early bullpen games already. Max Muncy just hit his first home run, Michael Conforto is struggling, Mookie Betts hasn’t heated up, Roki Sasaki hasn’t won a game in six starts and the bench has been every bit as bad as it appeared it would be.
Oh … and the Dodgers are still in first place and on pace for 110 wins.
The Red Sox were sort of everyone’s favorite sleeper pick to win the AL East, although it wouldn’t be exactly right to call them a deep sleeper. The four key newcomers have been good to outstanding so far: Garrett Crochet looks like a Cy Young contender, Alex Bregman is hitting like it’s 2019 all over again, Walker Buehler is 4-1 and rookie second baseman Kristian Campbell already looks like an All-Star. Lucas Giolito, last year’s newcomer who missed the season with Tommy John surgery, just returned to make his first start in a Red Sox uniform and pitched well Wednesday before giving up two home runs in the sixth inning. One caveat: The Red Sox had the easiest schedule in the majors in April, per Baseball-Reference, including seven games against the White Sox. (They only went 4-3 against them, however.)
The Astros probably shouldn’t be over .500: Yordan Alvarez hasn’t delivered at his usual super-powered level, Christian Walker hasn’t hit much, the Jose Altuve left-field thing remains one of the stranger decisions in recent years, Framber Valdez is 1-3 with a 4.00 ERA and Spencer Arrighetti got hurt after two starts. Yet here they are, finding a way.
Hunter Brown has been perhaps the best pitcher in the AL, the bullpen has been clutch, and every time I check the highlights, Jake Meyers is making an outstanding play in center field. Heck, Lance McCullers Jr. will even make his first start since the 2022 World Series this weekend. The Astros haven’t had a losing record in a full season since 2014, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them capture an eighth straight non-COVID-season AL West title.
They’re over .500 and win-loss record is all that matters, but the Guardians are probably a little lucky to be where they’re at in the standings. Clay Davenport’s third-order standings, which looks at a team’s underlying statistics and adjusts for strength of schedule, has the Guardians barely better than the White Sox. Indeed, the rotation has certainly scuffled and closer Emmanuel Clase has already allowed more earned runs than all of last season (although he is 4-0). Assuming Clase figures things out, the bullpen should remain a strength and they’re hoping for Shane Bieber to return around the All-Star break. The Guardians are better than the White Sox, but let’s see what happens as they play a tougher schedule in May.
This grade was a little higher until the Reds’ ugly doubleheader loss to St. Louis on Wednesday (6-0, 9-1). It’s been a month of extremes for them, including that 24-2 win over the Orioles. The big positives have been the rotation trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer, while the big negatives have been several position players not producing at the plate and the decline of former All-Star closer Alexis Diaz. Jeimer Candelario went on the IL this week with a lumbar strain while hitting .113, but even if a sore back was part of the problem there, it’s time to just move on and let Noelvi Marte play third base.
Cincinnati will need Matt McLain and Spencer Steer to start hitting and I’m not convinced this is a playoff-caliber bullpen, but the Reds might be the best bet in the NL Central to challenge the Cubs if manager Terry Francona can sort through the roster and figure out who can play and who can’t.
The Rangers’ record is hovering above .500 and they’ve played one of the more difficult schedules so far, but until a 15-run explosion on Tuesday, the offense had been near the bottom in the majors in runs, so it’s still hard to draw an angle on this team, given the offense was also weak in 2024. The top three starters have been outstanding, however, as Nathan Eovaldi has dominated with a 2.11 ERA and an absurd 46-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Tyler Mahle has ridden a low BABIP to a league-leading 1.14 ERA and Jacob deGrom is rounding into form with just three runs allowed over his past three starts. The bullpen looked like a huge issue heading into the season but has been very good (at least until Wednesday’s ninth-inning implosion). If the bullpen keeps it going, this team should remain in contention in the AL West.
It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for the Phillies as the offense has been inconsistent and lacking power (27 home runs in 30 games), the bullpen has been shaky at times, the defense isn’t good and Aaron Nola is 0-5. Kyle Schwarber, now moved out of the leadoff spot, has been the big bat while Trea Turner and Bryson Stott have been getting on base more than last year. Jesus Luzardo has been a huge — and necessary — addition to the rotation given the injury to Ranger Suarez. The depth of the Phillies’ rotation, assuming Nola’s last outing is a return to form (one run in seven innings against the Cubs), should still make them a playoff team, but that statement feels like a lot less of a sure thing than it did on Opening Day, especially with a top-heavy NL.
Outside of Bobby Witt. Jr. and Maikel Garcia, they haven’t really hit at all, with a whole host of batters — Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe — all struggling. That’s supposed to be the middle of the KC lineup and all four of those guys are hitting under .200. Welcome to baseball in 2025, where it seems every lineup has four players hitting under .200. The bullpen has pitched much better than last season and the rotation has once again been a strength. Ace Cole Ragans is 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA, the worst ERA of the starters, but his peripherals remain outstanding, so he’ll start winning some games — if the Royals can score some runs behind him.
The season began with that disastrous rout at Yankee Stadium, when the Brewers were outscored 36-14, but they quickly recovered from that and have a couple of blowout wins of their own. Brice Turang has been a bright spot, Jackson Chourio is hitting (but not walking) and Jose Quintana is 4-0 in four starts with a 1.14 ERA. They’ve been uncharacteristically sloppy at times, however, and manager Pat Murphy yanked Sal Frelick (for a bad throw) and Caleb Durbin (for getting picked off second base while down four) midgame last weekend. Message sent. But the key will be continuing to get surprise performances from the likes of Quintana and unheralded rookie Chad Patrick in the rotation.
The Rays entered the season looking to find the offense that abandoned them in 2024 (they scored 256 fewer runs than 2023) and get a healthy season from their rotation. The offense has been a little better thanks to rookie outfielders Jake Mangum and Kameron Misner plus a spark from recent call-up Chandler Simpson, but Tampa Bay remains below average in runs per game. The rotation lost Shane McClanahan in his final spring training start, but at least the other five members have been healthy — and it’s nice seeing one-time top prospect Shane Baz finally pitching well. There’s a potential playoff team here for sure, but they’re going to need Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero to produce more than they have.
It’s been a weird month of extreme highs and lows for Arizona as Corbin Carroll has been one of the best players in baseball, Pavin Smith has been absolutely raking with an OPS over 1.000 and Eugenio Suarez had his history-tying four-homer game. On the other end, the rotation — aside from Brandon Pfaadt — has struggled, as Corbin Burnes has just one win in six starts and he and Zac Gallen have both had some control issues. This still feels like a quality team, but we’ll get a better read over the next two weeks as they play the Phillies this weekend and then have series against the Mets, Dodgers and Giants, their first intradivision matchups of 2025.
MacKenzie Gore and James Wood are both off to excellent starts, with Gore leading the majors in strikeouts and Wood bashing nine home runs with a .903 OPS. Both, of course, came to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade (as did CJ Abrams). Who has the brighter future? Wood would seem to be the easy choice; he’s four years younger and not a pitcher. But starting pitchers often take a long time to develop, and Gore keeps improving, with these early returns suggesting a whole new level for him. As for the rest of the team, they had two nice wins to beat the Mets last weekend but the bullpen has been a mess (next to last in win probability added) and the rest of the rotation lacks strikeout stuff.
The Cardinals have gone 0-4 in extra-inning games, which you can attribute to bad luck, lack of depth or lack of clutch hitting, but it has put them in an early hole. Maybe that’s not so unexpected, given the plan all along was to roll out the likes of Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Nolan Gorman and Ivan Herrera and give them a chance to play — maybe the final opportunity in a Cardinals uniform for Walker and Gorman, even though both remain relatively young. It’s not exactly a rebuilding year but the Cardinals are kind of spinning their wheels for a third consecutive season, which could eventually lead to trades for Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley and maybe even Sonny Gray.
After an awful start, the Twins did turn things around last week — when they played the White Sox and Angels. That may temporarily have taken manager Rocco Baldelli off the hot seat, but they’ve certainly struggled to score runs, and the bullpen, which I thought would be a strength, ranks 27th in the majors in win probability added. Adding to the disappointment is that Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have played nearly every game — but both have sub-.300 OBPs. I’m not giving up on the Twins, as I still like a rotation with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, and the bullpen should get better, plus they do have a positive run differential. Still, they need to reel off a hot streak soon and prove they can beat teams other than Chicago and L.A., which are two of just three teams that have a worse record than Minnesota in the AL.
They’ve had some good moments, and a few blowout losses (10-0, 14-0, 15-2) skewed the run differential, but overall they’re still not very good and four starters have ERAs over 7.00 (three over 8.00), which isn’t going to work. Unlike the Pirates (see below), at least the Marlins have essentially turned over the roster and are playing semi-younger players to see if they might have something in the likes of Matt Mervis, Liam Hicks and Kyle Stowers. Max Meyer might be having a breakout season, so that’s exciting, but Sandy Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery has not been smooth as he continues to fight his control.
They’re starting to dig themselves out of a wretched 5-13 start, winning consecutive series against the Twins, Cardinals and Diamondbacks, but it’s still difficult to get a read on this team. Braves fans had much consternation over this start as concerns about the team immediately popped up: the outfield production, the back of the rotation, the weak bench.
Along the way, Chris Sale has been surprisingly hittable (although his strikeout rate is excellent, so I think he’ll be fine), closer Raisel Iglesias has somehow allowed five home runs in 10 innings (not so sure he’ll be fine), Ronald Acuna Jr. deleted a social media post seemingly criticizing manager Brian Snitker (get healthy, Ronald) and Spencer Strider returned from the IL only to immediately go back on it with a hamstring strain. (He might be the most important pitcher in the league when he returns.) That’s a lot in one month — something a nice little winning streak will cure.
April certainly didn’t change my opinion that the Blue Jays aren’t a playoff team as they still look much closer to the 74-88 team of 2024 than the playoff teams of 2022 and 2023. Even the announcement of the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension a couple of weeks into the season didn’t do anything to change the backward momentum of this organization. The big offseason moves were signing Anthony Santander and trading for Andres Gimenez, but both are hitting under .200 with an OPS+ under 70. Only the Royals have hit fewer home runs. Indeed, the Blue Jays have been outhomered 44 to 19. That’s not going to work over a 162-game campaign.
The Angels’ offseason had a feel of desperation to it. They signed a bunch of 30-something hitters; all except Jorge Soler are hitting under .200. They signed Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, hoping for consistency from Kikuchi and a comeback from Hendricks; those two are a combined 0-7 with a 5.27 ERA. They used a position player to pitch on Opening Day, which is sad enough — although they did then play good baseball for a couple of weeks to jump out to a 9-5 start.
It’s been rough going since then, however, as L.A. has slid to the bottom of the AL West. And that was before Mike Trout left Wednesday’s game after tweaking his knee. The Angels are showing no signs of how they’re going to pull out of this 10-year abyss.
Nobody expected the White Sox to be any good, but entering Thursday’s game, they were 7-23 and on pace to win fewer games than last season. Ouch. They’ve at least played more competitive baseball than a year ago, mostly thanks to a rotation that has kept them in games. The offense has been wretched, with Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn both hitting well below the Mendoza Line. It might be time to move on from both. Rookie starter Shane Smith has been a bright spot, and catcher Edgar Quero was called up and has been impressive at the plate. Still, it appears a third straight 100-loss season is in the works.
Yes, they have Paul Skenes, who has been outstanding (though he did give up three home runs Thursday), but I have no choice but to give them a failing grade considering they’re on pace for 99 losses. I’m not really sure how the Pirates dig themselves out of this either. They’re not even a young team, with five of their nine regular position players 30 or older. Oneil Cruz is the only hitter who has provided much power, and as exciting as he has been at the plate and stealing bases, his adventures in center field have basically turned him into a replacement-level player. The Pirates were 61-101 in 2021. Despite five years of rebuilding, they might be headed for that same record.
The vibes aren’t good in Baltimore right now, that’s for sure, although maybe this week’s series win over the Yankees will get the Orioles going. This goes back to the second half of 2024, when the Orioles were two games under .500 the final three months and then got swept in the wild-card series, scoring one run in two games. Having the worst ERA+ in the majors this season certainly isn’t great, and it hasn’t helped that Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched and Zach Eflin went down after three starts, but it’s amazing how little they’ve gotten as a group this season from all those highly rated young hitters. To top it off, the Orioles had the worst giveaway of the young season: a bobblehead of owner David Rubenstein. Talk about not reading the room.
Imagine “The Exorcist” meets “The Shining” meets “A Quiet Place” and then throw in the creature from “Alien” and you have a rough approximation of what it’s like watching the 2025 Rockies. One year after the White Sox set a post-1900 record with 121 losses, the Rockies appear like they’re going to give that record a run — and maybe, unbelievably, even shatter it.
Their 5-25 start tied for the second worst through 30 games since 1900, ahead of only the infamous 1988 Orioles, who started 4-26 after losing their first 21 games. The Rockies haven’t even played within the tough NL West that often, with this current series against the Giants just their third intradivision matchup. In fact, every series the Rockies have in May is against a team that currently owns a winning record. They might not have even hit rock bottom yet.
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Sports
Jets stick up for Hellebuyck after latest playoff dud
Published
5 hours agoon
May 3, 2025By
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Greg WyshynskiMay 3, 2025, 12:24 AM ET
Close- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
The Winnipeg Jets defended star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck after another disastrous performance on the road, a 5-2 loss Friday night in which the St. Louis Blues forced Game 7 in their Stanley Cup Playoff opening-round series.
Hellebuyck was pulled after the second period in favor of backup Eric Comrie, the third straight game in St. Louis that he failed to finish. Hellebuyck surrendered five goals on 23 shots, including four goals on eight shots during a 5-minute, 23-second stretch in the second period that cost the Jets the game.
As has become tradition in this series, Blues fans mockingly chanted, “We want Connor!” after Hellebuyck left the game and the Jets’ bench.
“This isn’t about Connor,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said. “Tonight was not about Connor. Tonight, we imploded in front of him. Now, it’s a one-game showdown. It’s our goalie against their goalie, our best players against their best, our grinders against theirs. I have a lot of confidence in our [entire] group — not just Helly.”
Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy last season as the NHL’s top goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. He also won the award in 2019-20 and is the favorite to win it for a third time this season. Hellebuyck is also a finalist for the 2024-25 Hart Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s most valuable player. He was the starting goaltender for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February and was expected to do the same for the U.S. in next year’s Winter Olympics in Italy.
But his recent performances in the Stanley Cup playoffs have been the antithesis of that success.
Over the past three postseasons, two of which the Jets lost in the first round in just five games, Hellebuyck is 5-11 with an .860 save percentage.
Hellebuyck failed to finish any of the three games played in St. Louis during the series. He was pulled with 9:28 left in regulation in Game 3, having given up six goals on 25 shots. In Game 4, Hellebuyck was pulled 2:01 into the third period after surrendering five goals on 18 shots. Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, tying the second-longest streak in Stanley Cup playoff history
At home against the Blues in this series, it has been a different story, if not necessarily a great one: Hellebuyck is 3-0 in Winnipeg, with an .879 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average.
His home numbers in the regular season: 27-3-3 with a .938 save percentage and a 1.63 goals-against average in 33 games. His road numbers: 20-9-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. Hellebuyck was not pulled in his 63 appearances in the regular season.
Even with Hellebuyck’s multiple seasons of playoff struggles, his team exonerated him from blame for the Game 6 loss.
“I don’t need to talk about Bucky,” said forward Nikolaj Ehlers, who returned to the lineup for the first time since April 12 after a foot injury. “He’s been unbelievable for us all year. He’s continued to do that. We’ve got to be better.”
Said forward Cole Perfetti, who had a goal in Game 6: “Things got carried away. We lost our game for four or five minutes. They got a couple pucks through, and they found the back of the net. It’s frustrating. Happened a couple of times now this series where we fell asleep and they jumped on us.”
Perfetti said the Jets have rebounded from losses like this — one reason their confidence isn’t shaken ahead of Sunday’s Game 7.
“We had a loss like that in Game 4 [in St. Louis],” he said. “We went home and got the job done in Game 5. We’ve got the home ice. We’ve got the fans behind us and our barn rocking.”
Sports
College football Luck Index 2025: Who needs luck on their side next season?
Published
11 hours agoon
May 3, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyMay 2, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Almost no word in the English language makes a college football fan more defensive than the L-word: luck.
We weren’t lucky to have a great turnover margin — our coaches are just really good at emphasizing ball security! We’re tougher than everyone else — that’s why we recovered all those fumbles!
We weren’t lucky to win all those close games — we’re clutch! Our coaches know how to press all the right buttons! Our quarterback is a cool customer!
We weren’t lucky to have fewer injuries than everyone else — our strength-and-conditioning coach is the best in America! And again: We’re just tougher!
As loath as we may be to admit it, a large percentage of a given college football season — with its small overall sample of games — is determined by the bounce of a pointy ball, the bend of a ligament and the whims of fate. Certain teams will end up with an unsustainably good turnover margin that turns on them the next year. Certain teams (often the same ones) will enjoy a great run of close-game fortune based on some combination of great coaching, sturdy quarterback play, timely special teams contributions … and massive amounts of unsustainable randomness. Certain teams will keep their starting lineups mostly intact for 12 or more games while another is watching its depth chart change dramatically on a week-to-week basis.
As we prepare for the 2025 college football season, it’s worth stepping back and looking at who did, and didn’t, get the bounces in 2024. Just because Lady Luck was (or wasn’t) on your side one year, doesn’t automatically mean your fortunes will flip the next, but that’s often how these things go. Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let’s talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.
Jump to a section:
Turnover luck | Close games luck
Injuries and general shuffling | Turnaround candidates
Turnover luck
In last year’s ACC championship game, Clemson bolted to a 24-7 halftime lead, then white-knuckled it to the finish. SMU came back to tie the score at 31 with only 16 seconds left, but Nolan Hauser‘s 56-yard field goal at the buzzer gave the Tigers a 34-31 victory and a spot in 2024’s College Football Playoff at Alabama’s expense.
In the first series of the game, Clemson’s T.J. Parker pulled a perfect sack-and-strip of SMU QB Kevin Jennings, forcing and falling on a loose ball at the SMU 33-yard line. Clemson scored two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. Late in the first quarter, Khalil Barnes picked off a Jennings pass near midfield, ending what could have become a scoring threat with one more first down. A few minutes later, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik fumbled at the end of a 14-yard gain, but tight end Jake Briningstool recovered it at midfield, preventing another potential scoring threat from developing. (Klubnik fumbled seven times in the 2024 season but lost only one of them.)
Early in the third quarter, after SMU cut Clemson’s lead to 24-14, David Eziomume fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the Clemson 6, but teammate Keith Adams Jr. recovered it right before two SMU players pounced.
Over 60 minutes, both teams fumbled twice, and Clemson defended (intercepted or broke up) eight passes to SMU’s seven. On average, 50% of fumbles are lost and about 21% of passes defended become INTs, so Clemson’s expected turnover margin in this game was plus-0.2 (because of the extra pass defended). The Tigers’ actual turnover margin was plus-2, a difference of 1.8 turnovers in a game they barely won.
Clemson was obviously a solid team in 2024, but the Tigers probably wouldn’t have reached the CFP without turnovers luck. For the season, they fumbled 16 times but lost only three, and comparing their expected (based on the averages above) and actual turnover margins, almost no one benefited more from the randomness of a bouncing ball.
It probably isn’t a surprise to see that, of last year’s 12 playoff teams, eight benefited from positive turnovers luck, and six were at plus-3.3 or higher. You’ve got to be lucky and good to win, right?
You aren’t often lucky for two straight years, though. It might be noteworthy to point out that, of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early 2025 rankings, five were in the top 20 in terms of turnovers luck: No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Clemson, No. 9 BYU, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 17 Indiana (plus two others from his Teams Also Considered list: Army and Baylor).
It’s also noteworthy to point out that three teams on Schlabach’s list — No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU and No. 15 SMU — ranked in the triple-digits in terms of turnovers luck. Oregon started the season 13-0 without the benefit of bounces. For that matter, Auburn, a team on the Also Considered list, ranked 125th in turnovers luck in a season that saw the Tigers go just 1-3 in one-score finishes. There might not have been a more what-could-have-been team in the country than Hugh Freeze’s Tigers.
Close games
One of my favorite tools in my statistical toolbox is what I call postgame win expectancy. The idea is to take all of a game’s key, predictive stats — all the things that end up feeding into my SP+ rankings — and basically toss them into the air and say, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”
Alabama‘s 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5 was one of the most impactful results of the CFP race. It was also one of the least likely results of the season in terms of postgame win expectancy. Bama averaged 8.8 yards per play to Vandy’s 5.6, generated a 56% success rate* to Vandy’s 43% and scored touchdowns on all four of its trips into the red zone. It’s really hard to lose when you do all of that — in fact, the Crimson Tide’s postgame win expectancy was a whopping 98.5%. (You can see all postgame win expectancy data here)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth. It is one of the more reliable and predictive stats you’ll find, and it’s a big part of SP+.)
Vandy managed to overcome these stats in part because of two of the most perfect bounces you’ll ever see. In the first, Jalen Milroe had a pass batted at the line, and it deflected high into the air and, eventually, into the arms of Randon Fontenette, who caught it on the run and raced 29 yards for a touchdown and an early 13-0 lead.
In the second half, with Bama driving to potentially take the lead, Miles Capers sacked Milroe and forced a fumble; the ball sat on the ground for what felt like an eternity before Yilanan Ouattara outwrestled a Bama lineman for it. Instead of trailing, Vandy took over near midfield and scored seven plays later. It took turnovers luck and unlikely key-play execution — despite a 43% success rate, Diego Pavia and the Commodores went 12-for-18 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth — for Vandy to turn a 1.5% postgame win expectancy into a victory. It also wasn’t Alabama’s only incredibly unlikely loss: The Tide were at 87.8% to beat Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl but fell 19-13.
(Ole Miss can feel the Tide’s pain: The Rebels were at 76.0% postgame win expectancy against Kentucky and 73.7% against Florida. There was only a 6% chance that they would lose both games, and even going 1-1 would have likely landed them a CFP bid. They lost both.)
Adding up each game’s postgame win expectancy is a nice way of seeing how many games a team should have won on average. I call this a team’s second-order win total. Alabama was at 10.7 second-order wins but went 9-4. That was one of the biggest differences of the season. Somehow, however, Iron Bowl rival Auburn was even more unfortunate.
Based solely on stats, Arkansas State should have won about four games, and Auburn should have won about eight. Instead, the Red Wolves went 8-5 and the Tigers went 5-7.
Comparing win totals to these second-order wins is one of the surest ways of identifying potential turnaround stories for the following season. In 2023, 15 teams had second-order win totals at least one game higher than their actual win totals — meaning they suffered from poor close-game fortune. Ten of those 15 teams saw their win totals increase by at least two games in 2024, including East Carolina (from 2-10 to 8-5), TCU (5-7 to 9-4), Pitt (3-9 to 7-6), Boise State (8-6 to 12-2) and Louisiana (6-7 to 10-4). On average, these 15 teams improved by 1.9 wins.
On the flip side, 19 teams overachieved their second-order win totals by at least 1.0 wins in 2023. This list includes both of 2023’s national title game participants, Washington and Michigan. The Huskies and Wolverines sank from a combined 29-1 in 2023 to 14-12 in 2024, and it could have been even worse. Michigan overachieved again, going 8-5 despite a second-order win total of 6.0. Other 2023 overachievers weren’t so lucky. Oklahoma State (from 10-4 to 3-9), Wyoming (from 9-4 to 3-9), Northwestern (from 8-5 to 4-8) and NC State (from 9-4 to 6-7) all won more games than the stats expected in 2023, and all of them crumpled to some degree in 2024. On average, the 19 overachieving teams regressed by 1.9 wins last fall.
It’s worth keeping in mind that several teams in Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 — including No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU, No. 11 Iowa State, No. 13 Illinois and, yes, No. 21 Michigan — all exceeded statistical expectations in wins last season, as did Also Considered teams like Army, Duke, Missouri and Texas Tech. The fact that Oregon and LSU overachieved while suffering from poor turnovers luck is (admittedly) rather unlikely and paints a conflicting picture.
Meanwhile, one should note that three Way-Too-Early teams — No. 12 Alabama, No. 23 Miami and No. 25 Ole Miss (plus Washington and, of course, Auburn from the Also Considered list) — all lost more games than expected last season. With just a little bit of good fortune, they could prove to be awfully underrated.
Injuries and general shuffling
Injuries are hard to define in college football — coaches are frequently canny in the information they do and do not provide, and with so many teams in FBS, it’s impossible to derive accurate data regarding how many games were missed due to injury.
We can glean quite a bit from starting lineups, however. Teams with lineups that barely changed throughout the season were probably pretty happy with their overall results, while teams with ever-changing lineups likely succumbed to lots of losses. Below, I’ve ranked teams using a simple ratio: I compared (a) the number of players who either started every game or started all but one for a given team to (b) the number of players who started only one or two games, likely as a stopgap. If you had far more of the former, your team likely avoided major injury issues and, with a couple of major exceptions, thrived. If you had more of the latter, the negative effects were probably pretty obvious.
Despite the presence of 1-11 Purdue and 2-10 Kennesaw State near the top of the list — Purdue fielded one of the worst power conference teams in recent memory and barely could blame injury for its issues — you can still see a decent correlation between a positive ratio and positive results. The six teams with a ratio of at least 2.8 or above went a combined 62-22 in 2024, while the teams with a 0.5 ratio or worse went 31-56.
Seven of nine conference champions had a ratio of at least 1.3, and 11 of the 12 CFP teams were at 1.44 or higher (five were at 2.6 or higher). Indiana, the most shocking of CFP teams, was second on the list above; epic disappointments like Oklahoma and, especially, Florida State were near the bottom. (The fact that Georgia won the SEC and reached the CFP despite a pretty terrible injury ratio speaks volumes about the depth Kirby Smart has built in Athens. Of course, the Dawgs also enjoyed solid turnovers luck.)
Major turnaround candidates
It’s fair to use this information as a reason for skepticism about teams like Indiana (turnovers luck and injuries luck), Clemson (turnovers luck), Iowa State (close-games luck), Penn State (injuries luck) or Sam Houston (all of the above, plus a coaching change), but let’s end on an optimistic note instead. Here are five teams that could pretty easily enjoy a big turnaround if Lady Luck is a little kinder.
Auburn Tigers: Auburn enjoyed a better success rate than its opponents (44.7% to 38.5%) and made more big plays as well (8.9% of plays gained 20-plus yards versus 5.7% for opponents). That makes it awfully hard to lose! But the Tigers made exactly the mistake they couldn’t make and managed to lose games with 94%, 76% and 61% postgame win expectancy. There’s nothing saying this was all bad luck, but even with a modest turnaround in fortune, the Tigers will have a very high ceiling in 2025.
Florida Gators: The Gators improved from 41st to 20th in SP+ and from 5-7 to 8-5 overall despite starting three quarterbacks and 12 different DBs and ranking 132nd on the list above. That says pretty spectacular things about their overall upside, especially considering their improved experience levels on the O-line, in the secondary and the general optimism about sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.
Florida Atlantic Owls: Only one team ranked 111th or worse in all three of the tables above — turnovers luck (111th), second-order win difference (121st) and injury ratio (131st). You could use this information to make the case that the Owls shouldn’t have fired head coach Tom Herman, or you could simply say that new head coach Zach Kittley is pretty well-positioned to get some bounces and hit the ground running.
Florida State Seminoles: There was evidently plenty of poor fortune to go around in the Sunshine State last season, and while Mike Norvell’s Seminoles suffered an epic hangover on the field, they also didn’t get a single bounce: They were 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win difference and 110th in injury ratio. Norvell has brought in new coordinators and plenty of new players, and the Noles are almost guaranteed to jump up from 2-10. With a little luck, that jump could be a pretty big one.
Utah Utes: Along with UCF, Utah was one of only two teams to start four different quarterbacks in 2024. The Utes were also among only four teams to start at least 11 different receivers or tight ends and among five teams to start at least nine defensive linemen. If you’re looking for an easy explanation for how they fell from 65th to 96th in offensive SP+ and from 8-5 to 5-7 overall, that’s pretty succinct and telling.
Sports
Good Cheer rallies in slop to win Kentucky Oaks
Published
11 hours agoon
May 3, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
May 2, 2025, 07:25 PM ET
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Unbeaten filly Good Cheer rallied on the outside through the slop to overtake Tenma by the final furlong and win the 151st Kentucky Oaks on Friday at Churchill Downs.
Louisville-born trainer Brad Cox watched the heavy 6-5 favorite cover 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.15 with Luis Saez aboard. Good Cheer paid $4.78, $3.62 and $3.02 for her seventh dominant victory.
The bay daughter of Megdalia d’Oro and Wedding Toast by Street entered the Oaks with a combined victory margin of more than 42 lengths, and on Friday, she added more distance to her resume with a stunning surge over a mushy track.
Cox, who grew up blocks from Churchill Downs, earned his third Oaks win and Saez his second.
Drexel Hill paid $21.02 and $11.76 for second while Bless the Broken was third and returned $4.78.
A thunderstorm that roared through about two hours before the scheduled post left the track soggy and sent many of the 100,910 fans seeking shelter at the track’s urging. The $1.5 million showcase for 3-year-old fillies was delayed by 10 minutes, and the conditions proved to be a minor nuisance for Good Cheer.
She was off the pace after starting from the No. 11 post but well within range of the leaders before charging forward through the final turns. Good Cheer was fourth entering the stretch and closed inside and into the lead, pulling away for her fourth win at Churchill Downs and second in the mud.
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