Handing out April grades for all 30 MLB teams: From many A’s to a surprising F
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David Schoenfield
In many ways, April baseball unfolded as expected: The National League is top-heavy — and dominating — while the American League might have a dozen teams in the playoff race deep into the season.
It was the month of Aaron Judge, who became just the seventh player to finish April with a .400 batting average and at least 10 home runs. It was a month to remember for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jorge Polanco and Hunter Brown and the San Diego Padres bullpen. It was a month to forget for the Colorado Rockies.
Yes, it’s time for April grades. We’re factoring in preseason expectations, how key players are performing and other factors, like strength of schedule and how young players might be developing. It’s early, and a lot can change. But just look at last season, when the Kansas City Royals started 18-13 and went on to a surprise playoff spot. April does matter.
Let’s start with the biggest winners of the 2025 MLB season so far.
There are hot Aprils that feel legitimate and hot Aprils that don’t look so convincing. This one feels legit. The Mets lead the majors in ERA even without projected rotation members Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, as Kodai Senga looks like a possible ace and Tylor Megill (1.74 ERA, 39 strikeouts in 31 innings) has been so good filling in that he might have earned a permanent slot in the rotation. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have carried the offense with Juan Soto off to a lukewarm start, and the Mets have been almost unbeatable at home, where every game seems to have a playoff atmosphere.
Concerns? Ryne Stanek just lost three games in a week, including blowing two ninth-inning leads, so overall bullpen depth is probably the big one. Obviously, there will be regression from the rotation, and the Mets have played an easy schedule (although they did sweep the Phillies in their biggest head-to-head matchup), but once Soto heats up, watch out.
They’re certainly not going to overpower you, but the Tigers have as much pitching depth as any team in baseball, with more rotation depth than last year’s surprise playoff team and the same impressive bullpen that manager A.J. Hinch does such a good job of mixing and matching. The reemergence of former No. 1 picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson has been a nice boost. The power in the lineup comes primarily from Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, and Torkelson and Greene are striking out a lot, so you’d love to see them eventually add another hitter. But it’s possible the Tigers will run away with the AL Central even without doing that.
Is this going to be a repeat of 2021, when a Giants team came out of nowhere to win 107 games and edge out the Dodgers to become the only team besides L.A. to win the NL West since 2013? I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but the Giants have had some early magic brewing with five walk-off wins — and sometimes that early momentum carries on throughout the entire season.
The interesting thing is it’s not because of anything new that president of baseball operations — and Giants legend — Buster Posey did in the offseason. Willy Adames was the big free agent signing and he has been below replacement value, according to Baseball-Reference. Justin Verlander is winless in six starts with a 4.99 ERA. Meanwhile, Jung Hoo Lee has been the team MVP, Wilmer Flores has been the surprise RBI getter and the bullpen has been outstanding.
Let’s put it this way: The Giants and Dodgers don’t meet for the first time until June 13. That series might be a lot more interesting than we thought before the season started.
After the 2016 team slowly fell apart and players drifted to new teams across the league, the Cubs became not only mediocre but not very interesting. This team is better and a whole bunch of fun. The Cubs are scoring runs in bunches, Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of those players you can’t keep your eyes off and Kyle Tucker is playing at an MVP level. They had a strong April despite a tough schedule — they’re already done with the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks, for example. The season-ending injury to Justin Steele was a huge loss and the bullpen is a concern, but this looks like a team that could win its first full-season division title since 2017.
Back on Opening Day, I looked at who was playing in the season opener for San Diego and said, “The Padres are trying to win with Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Lockridge, Gavin Sheets, Martin Maldonado, Elias Diaz and Jason Heyward.” Needless to say, I was not impressed. The Padres won that day — and, indeed, started 7-0 on their way to a fantastic first month. Heck, you could have even thrown Jose Iglesias, Oscar Gonzalez and Tyler Wade into that above list. Some of these guys have played well while others haven’t — but it’s mostly been about Fernando Tatis Jr., Nick Pivetta and the best bullpen in the majors. San Diego has managed to overcome the early injury to Jackson Merrill, but we’ll see how this lack of depth holds up over 162 games.
It’s been quite the roller coaster of storylines and headlines for the Yankees: Gerrit Cole’s season-ending injury, the torpedo bats, Giancarlo Stanton’s tennis elbows, Ben Rice crushing it, Trent Grisham suddenly turning into Mickey Mantle, Devin Williams imploding as the closer, Max Fried sitting at 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA. Most of all though: Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge. He had a season for the ages in 2022, was somehow better in 2024 and is somehow better again so far in 2025, hitting an insane .427/.521/.761 with 10 home runs and 32 RBIs in 31 games. From May 1, 2024, through April 30, 2025, Judge played 158 games and hit .368 with 62 home runs. It’s hard to fathom, in this age of pitching, that a hitter can be this good.
Your fun stat of the week: The Mariners are second in the majors in road OPS! Yes, the team known for its starting pitching might actually be a good offensive team. You certainly wouldn’t have said that the first two weeks of the season when, playing primarily at home, the Mariners started 4-8 and were hitting just .200.
Since then, they’ve won seven series in a row, despite losing starting right fielder Victor Robles and starting second baseman Ryan Bliss to what will be nearly seasonlong injuries. But Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco have combined for 19 home runs and Andres Munoz is 11-for-11 in save opportunities. Seattle has been without George Kirby all season and the rotation depth will now be further tested as Logan Gilbert just hit the injured list for the first time in his career.
The starting pitching has been a little rickety and the defensive metrics are the worst in the majors — it won’t help that calling up Nick Kurtz to play first base forced Tyler Soderstrom to the outfield, a position he has never played — but this is an exciting young lineup worth checking out. Soderstrom and Brent Rooker have been mashing home runs, Jacob Wilson is a contact master from the Joe Sewell school of hitting (look him up!), Lawrence Butler is getting going and now Kurtz, the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft, will get an opportunity. Playing in a minor league park adds an additional element of theater, including the grass seating area. The defense probably prevents this team from being a surprise playoff contender, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if that does happen.
The Dodgers started 8-0 but have been sort of mediocre since then and have a growing list of issues and concerns. Blake Snell is out with shoulder inflammation and hasn’t pitched since April 2. Tyler Glasnow pitched 18 innings in five starts and also landed on the IL with shoulder discomfort. Justin Wrobleski and Bobby Miller each had a spot start and got hammered, leading to a couple of early bullpen games already. Max Muncy just hit his first home run, Michael Conforto is struggling, Mookie Betts hasn’t heated up, Roki Sasaki hasn’t won a game in six starts and the bench has been every bit as bad as it appeared it would be.
Oh … and the Dodgers are still in first place and on pace for 110 wins.
The Red Sox were sort of everyone’s favorite sleeper pick to win the AL East, although it wouldn’t be exactly right to call them a deep sleeper. The four key newcomers have been good to outstanding so far: Garrett Crochet looks like a Cy Young contender, Alex Bregman is hitting like it’s 2019 all over again, Walker Buehler is 4-1 and rookie second baseman Kristian Campbell already looks like an All-Star. Lucas Giolito, last year’s newcomer who missed the season with Tommy John surgery, just returned to make his first start in a Red Sox uniform and pitched well Wednesday before giving up two home runs in the sixth inning. One caveat: The Red Sox had the easiest schedule in the majors in April, per Baseball-Reference, including seven games against the White Sox. (They only went 4-3 against them, however.)
The Astros probably shouldn’t be over .500: Yordan Alvarez hasn’t delivered at his usual super-powered level, Christian Walker hasn’t hit much, the Jose Altuve left-field thing remains one of the stranger decisions in recent years, Framber Valdez is 1-3 with a 4.00 ERA and Spencer Arrighetti got hurt after two starts. Yet here they are, finding a way.
Hunter Brown has been perhaps the best pitcher in the AL, the bullpen has been clutch, and every time I check the highlights, Jake Meyers is making an outstanding play in center field. Heck, Lance McCullers Jr. will even make his first start since the 2022 World Series this weekend. The Astros haven’t had a losing record in a full season since 2014, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them capture an eighth straight non-COVID-season AL West title.
They’re over .500 and win-loss record is all that matters, but the Guardians are probably a little lucky to be where they’re at in the standings. Clay Davenport’s third-order standings, which looks at a team’s underlying statistics and adjusts for strength of schedule, has the Guardians barely better than the White Sox. Indeed, the rotation has certainly scuffled and closer Emmanuel Clase has already allowed more earned runs than all of last season (although he is 4-0). Assuming Clase figures things out, the bullpen should remain a strength and they’re hoping for Shane Bieber to return around the All-Star break. The Guardians are better than the White Sox, but let’s see what happens as they play a tougher schedule in May.
This grade was a little higher until the Reds’ ugly doubleheader loss to St. Louis on Wednesday (6-0, 9-1). It’s been a month of extremes for them, including that 24-2 win over the Orioles. The big positives have been the rotation trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer, while the big negatives have been several position players not producing at the plate and the decline of former All-Star closer Alexis Diaz. Jeimer Candelario went on the IL this week with a lumbar strain while hitting .113, but even if a sore back was part of the problem there, it’s time to just move on and let Noelvi Marte play third base.
Cincinnati will need Matt McLain and Spencer Steer to start hitting and I’m not convinced this is a playoff-caliber bullpen, but the Reds might be the best bet in the NL Central to challenge the Cubs if manager Terry Francona can sort through the roster and figure out who can play and who can’t.
The Rangers’ record is hovering above .500 and they’ve played one of the more difficult schedules so far, but until a 15-run explosion on Tuesday, the offense had been near the bottom in the majors in runs, so it’s still hard to draw an angle on this team, given the offense was also weak in 2024. The top three starters have been outstanding, however, as Nathan Eovaldi has dominated with a 2.11 ERA and an absurd 46-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Tyler Mahle has ridden a low BABIP to a league-leading 1.14 ERA and Jacob deGrom is rounding into form with just three runs allowed over his past three starts. The bullpen looked like a huge issue heading into the season but has been very good (at least until Wednesday’s ninth-inning implosion). If the bullpen keeps it going, this team should remain in contention in the AL West.
It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for the Phillies as the offense has been inconsistent and lacking power (27 home runs in 30 games), the bullpen has been shaky at times, the defense isn’t good and Aaron Nola is 0-5. Kyle Schwarber, now moved out of the leadoff spot, has been the big bat while Trea Turner and Bryson Stott have been getting on base more than last year. Jesus Luzardo has been a huge — and necessary — addition to the rotation given the injury to Ranger Suarez. The depth of the Phillies’ rotation, assuming Nola’s last outing is a return to form (one run in seven innings against the Cubs), should still make them a playoff team, but that statement feels like a lot less of a sure thing than it did on Opening Day, especially with a top-heavy NL.
Outside of Bobby Witt. Jr. and Maikel Garcia, they haven’t really hit at all, with a whole host of batters — Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe — all struggling. That’s supposed to be the middle of the KC lineup and all four of those guys are hitting under .200. Welcome to baseball in 2025, where it seems every lineup has four players hitting under .200. The bullpen has pitched much better than last season and the rotation has once again been a strength. Ace Cole Ragans is 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA, the worst ERA of the starters, but his peripherals remain outstanding, so he’ll start winning some games — if the Royals can score some runs behind him.
The season began with that disastrous rout at Yankee Stadium, when the Brewers were outscored 36-14, but they quickly recovered from that and have a couple of blowout wins of their own. Brice Turang has been a bright spot, Jackson Chourio is hitting (but not walking) and Jose Quintana is 4-0 in four starts with a 1.14 ERA. They’ve been uncharacteristically sloppy at times, however, and manager Pat Murphy yanked Sal Frelick (for a bad throw) and Caleb Durbin (for getting picked off second base while down four) midgame last weekend. Message sent. But the key will be continuing to get surprise performances from the likes of Quintana and unheralded rookie Chad Patrick in the rotation.
The Rays entered the season looking to find the offense that abandoned them in 2024 (they scored 256 fewer runs than 2023) and get a healthy season from their rotation. The offense has been a little better thanks to rookie outfielders Jake Mangum and Kameron Misner plus a spark from recent call-up Chandler Simpson, but Tampa Bay remains below average in runs per game. The rotation lost Shane McClanahan in his final spring training start, but at least the other five members have been healthy — and it’s nice seeing one-time top prospect Shane Baz finally pitching well. There’s a potential playoff team here for sure, but they’re going to need Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero to produce more than they have.
It’s been a weird month of extreme highs and lows for Arizona as Corbin Carroll has been one of the best players in baseball, Pavin Smith has been absolutely raking with an OPS over 1.000 and Eugenio Suarez had his history-tying four-homer game. On the other end, the rotation — aside from Brandon Pfaadt — has struggled, as Corbin Burnes has just one win in six starts and he and Zac Gallen have both had some control issues. This still feels like a quality team, but we’ll get a better read over the next two weeks as they play the Phillies this weekend and then have series against the Mets, Dodgers and Giants, their first intradivision matchups of 2025.
MacKenzie Gore and James Wood are both off to excellent starts, with Gore leading the majors in strikeouts and Wood bashing nine home runs with a .903 OPS. Both, of course, came to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade (as did CJ Abrams). Who has the brighter future? Wood would seem to be the easy choice; he’s four years younger and not a pitcher. But starting pitchers often take a long time to develop, and Gore keeps improving, with these early returns suggesting a whole new level for him. As for the rest of the team, they had two nice wins to beat the Mets last weekend but the bullpen has been a mess (next to last in win probability added) and the rest of the rotation lacks strikeout stuff.
The Cardinals have gone 0-4 in extra-inning games, which you can attribute to bad luck, lack of depth or lack of clutch hitting, but it has put them in an early hole. Maybe that’s not so unexpected, given the plan all along was to roll out the likes of Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Nolan Gorman and Ivan Herrera and give them a chance to play — maybe the final opportunity in a Cardinals uniform for Walker and Gorman, even though both remain relatively young. It’s not exactly a rebuilding year but the Cardinals are kind of spinning their wheels for a third consecutive season, which could eventually lead to trades for Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley and maybe even Sonny Gray.
After an awful start, the Twins did turn things around last week — when they played the White Sox and Angels. That may temporarily have taken manager Rocco Baldelli off the hot seat, but they’ve certainly struggled to score runs, and the bullpen, which I thought would be a strength, ranks 27th in the majors in win probability added. Adding to the disappointment is that Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have played nearly every game — but both have sub-.300 OBPs. I’m not giving up on the Twins, as I still like a rotation with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, and the bullpen should get better, plus they do have a positive run differential. Still, they need to reel off a hot streak soon and prove they can beat teams other than Chicago and L.A., which are two of just three teams that have a worse record than Minnesota in the AL.
They’ve had some good moments, and a few blowout losses (10-0, 14-0, 15-2) skewed the run differential, but overall they’re still not very good and four starters have ERAs over 7.00 (three over 8.00), which isn’t going to work. Unlike the Pirates (see below), at least the Marlins have essentially turned over the roster and are playing semi-younger players to see if they might have something in the likes of Matt Mervis, Liam Hicks and Kyle Stowers. Max Meyer might be having a breakout season, so that’s exciting, but Sandy Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery has not been smooth as he continues to fight his control.
They’re starting to dig themselves out of a wretched 5-13 start, winning consecutive series against the Twins, Cardinals and Diamondbacks, but it’s still difficult to get a read on this team. Braves fans had much consternation over this start as concerns about the team immediately popped up: the outfield production, the back of the rotation, the weak bench.
Along the way, Chris Sale has been surprisingly hittable (although his strikeout rate is excellent, so I think he’ll be fine), closer Raisel Iglesias has somehow allowed five home runs in 10 innings (not so sure he’ll be fine), Ronald Acuna Jr. deleted a social media post seemingly criticizing manager Brian Snitker (get healthy, Ronald) and Spencer Strider returned from the IL only to immediately go back on it with a hamstring strain. (He might be the most important pitcher in the league when he returns.) That’s a lot in one month — something a nice little winning streak will cure.
April certainly didn’t change my opinion that the Blue Jays aren’t a playoff team as they still look much closer to the 74-88 team of 2024 than the playoff teams of 2022 and 2023. Even the announcement of the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension a couple of weeks into the season didn’t do anything to change the backward momentum of this organization. The big offseason moves were signing Anthony Santander and trading for Andres Gimenez, but both are hitting under .200 with an OPS+ under 70. Only the Royals have hit fewer home runs. Indeed, the Blue Jays have been outhomered 44 to 19. That’s not going to work over a 162-game campaign.
The Angels’ offseason had a feel of desperation to it. They signed a bunch of 30-something hitters; all except Jorge Soler are hitting under .200. They signed Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, hoping for consistency from Kikuchi and a comeback from Hendricks; those two are a combined 0-7 with a 5.27 ERA. They used a position player to pitch on Opening Day, which is sad enough — although they did then play good baseball for a couple of weeks to jump out to a 9-5 start.
It’s been rough going since then, however, as L.A. has slid to the bottom of the AL West. And that was before Mike Trout left Wednesday’s game after tweaking his knee. The Angels are showing no signs of how they’re going to pull out of this 10-year abyss.
Nobody expected the White Sox to be any good, but entering Thursday’s game, they were 7-23 and on pace to win fewer games than last season. Ouch. They’ve at least played more competitive baseball than a year ago, mostly thanks to a rotation that has kept them in games. The offense has been wretched, with Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn both hitting well below the Mendoza Line. It might be time to move on from both. Rookie starter Shane Smith has been a bright spot, and catcher Edgar Quero was called up and has been impressive at the plate. Still, it appears a third straight 100-loss season is in the works.
Yes, they have Paul Skenes, who has been outstanding (though he did give up three home runs Thursday), but I have no choice but to give them a failing grade considering they’re on pace for 99 losses. I’m not really sure how the Pirates dig themselves out of this either. They’re not even a young team, with five of their nine regular position players 30 or older. Oneil Cruz is the only hitter who has provided much power, and as exciting as he has been at the plate and stealing bases, his adventures in center field have basically turned him into a replacement-level player. The Pirates were 61-101 in 2021. Despite five years of rebuilding, they might be headed for that same record.
The vibes aren’t good in Baltimore right now, that’s for sure, although maybe this week’s series win over the Yankees will get the Orioles going. This goes back to the second half of 2024, when the Orioles were two games under .500 the final three months and then got swept in the wild-card series, scoring one run in two games. Having the worst ERA+ in the majors this season certainly isn’t great, and it hasn’t helped that Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched and Zach Eflin went down after three starts, but it’s amazing how little they’ve gotten as a group this season from all those highly rated young hitters. To top it off, the Orioles had the worst giveaway of the young season: a bobblehead of owner David Rubenstein. Talk about not reading the room.
Imagine “The Exorcist” meets “The Shining” meets “A Quiet Place” and then throw in the creature from “Alien” and you have a rough approximation of what it’s like watching the 2025 Rockies. One year after the White Sox set a post-1900 record with 121 losses, the Rockies appear like they’re going to give that record a run — and maybe, unbelievably, even shatter it.
Their 5-25 start tied for the second worst through 30 games since 1900, ahead of only the infamous 1988 Orioles, who started 4-26 after losing their first 21 games. The Rockies haven’t even played within the tough NL West that often, with this current series against the Giants just their third intradivision matchup. In fact, every series the Rockies have in May is against a team that currently owns a winning record. They might not have even hit rock bottom yet.
Jack Eichel has signed an eight-year contract extension with the Vegas Golden Knights that carries a $13.5 million average annual value, the team announced Wednesday.
The agreement came just hours before the Golden Knights open their season against the Los Angeles Kings in Las Vegas. The sides intensified talks as training camp opened, with both focused on getting a long-term deal secured ahead of the season.
The extension begins in the 2026-27 season, and Eichel will be 38 when it ends. He will be the third-highest player in terms of AAV in the league, following Kirill Kaprizov ($17 million) and Leon Draisaitl ($14 million) going forward.
Eichel, 28, was entering the final year of an eight-year contract that carried a $10 million cap hit, a deal he originally signed with the Buffalo Sabres, who drafted him.
Buffalo traded Eichel to the Golden Knights in 2021.
The deal stemmed from his desire to get an artificial disk replacement (ADR) to correct a neck injury, a procedure that never had been done on an NHL player and therefore was considered a risk. Eichel’s agent, Pat Brisson, helped facilitate the trade.
The Golden Knights allowed Eichel to get the surgery, which was such a success that several other NHL players have had it.
The U.S.-born center helped Vegas win its first Stanley Cup in 2023, scoring 26 points in 22 games during the playoff run.
“On or about four years ago, Jack was getting the first ADR surgery for an NHL active player,” Brisson told ESPN on Wednesday. “He is a pioneer. Vegas stepped to the plate and helped the process occur. They’ve since won the Cup. It’s a great place for him, and he’s really happy with the decision.”
Eichel is one of the six players already named to Team USA for the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics.
The Golden Knights are expected to be Stanley Cup contenders, especially after adding winger Mitch Marner this summer. Eichel and Marner are expected to play together on Vegas’ top line in its opener against the Kings.
The agreement takes another big name off the list of what could have been a star-studded free agent class next summer. Connor McDavid re-signed for a two-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers earlier in the week, and Kaprizov inked an eight-year deal with the Minnesota Wild ahead of the season.
The 2025 MLB playoffs are here — and for some teams, October is going to last a lot longer than it is for some others.
We start with the wild-card round, where the Cincinnati Reds became the first team eliminated from postseason contention — on the very first day of October, no less — with a two-game series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The next day, the Cleveland Guardians lost their series to the Detroit Tigers, the San Diego Padres fell to the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox were knocked out by the New York Yankees in a trio of Game 3s.
In the division series, the first team to go: those same Yankees, who were defeated by their American League East rival Toronto Blue Jays in four games.
What’s next for the teams and towns that won’t be celebrating a World Series parade this fall? As each contender is eliminated, ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield will list that club’s key free agents and biggest offseason questions and make their predictions for the long, cold winter ahead.
Teams eliminated in division series
Eliminated by: Blue Jays
Key free agents: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, CF Trent Grisham, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Devin Williams, OF/1B Cody Bellinger ($25 million player option)
Biggest offseason priority: With Bellinger almost certain to opt out after an under-the-radar 29-homer, 5-WAR season, and Grisham coming off a shocking 34-homer season, the Yankees will have not only two big hitters to replace but a hole in center field. Jasson Dominguez is not the answer there given his poor defensive metrics in left field, so there might be pressure to re-sign either Bellinger or Grisham, with Bellinger the more desirable player given that Grisham had hit under .200 in the three previous seasons. Bellinger’s ability to play first base is a big plus, although Ben Rice will likely take over there on a full-time basis. Outside of Kyle Tucker, the rest of the outfield free agent class is pretty thin, however, so the Yankees will have competition for Bellinger’s services.
The other option is to hand center field to Spencer Jones, the 6-foot-7 slugger who hit 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A. Although he also struck out 179 times in 116 games, he leaves a lot of questions as to how the bat will translate to the majors. Despite his size, he’s a good athlete (he also swiped 29 bases) with the instincts to remain in center field.
The Yankees have finished seventh in the AL in runs allowed three seasons in a row. How can they improve that figure in 2026? Well, they played all of 2025 without ace Gerrit Cole after his spring training Tommy John surgery, so getting him back will help. Luis Gil, coming off his Rookie of the Year season, didn’t make his first start until August. Cam Schlittler started the year in Double-A and ended it with a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts in the majors, living off 98 mph heat. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will be back after winning 37 games, and while Clarke Schmidt had TJ surgery, Will Warren adds even more depth. The Yankees might project as the best rotation in the AL.
The bullpen obviously didn’t have its best season, but the reinforcements Brian Cashman made at the trade deadline — David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Jake Bird — will help the depth in 2026. Still, you could see a move here, maybe re-signing Weaver, who has been a durable, valuable arm the past two years.
Offseason prediction: With most of the roster set, it shapes up as one of the least active Yankees offseasons in years. While last year the prediction was re-signing Juan Soto (a swing and a miss), let’s go with re-signing Bellinger while working Jones into the lineup. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Hicks (yes, they were still paying him) coming off the books, that’s $28 million in savings. Goldschmidt made $12.5 million in 2025. DJ LeMahieu has just one year left on his bad contract. The pitching is in good shape. Jose Caballero gives them an excellent utility player who can play anywhere. Yes, it was another bitter ending for Yankees fans, and 2009 looks like a very long time ago, but the Yankees will enter 2026 among the clear favorites in the AL, especially if Cole can return to where he was before the injury. — Schoenfield
Teams eliminated in wild-card series
Eliminated by: Dodgers
Key free agents: RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Emilio Pagan
Biggest offseason priority: Flipping their home run differential. The Reds badly need middle-of-the-order power, the kind that will better align their lineup with the long-ball-friendly vagaries of Great American Ballpark. The Reds gave up 25 more homers than they hit in 2025, postseason included, the fifth-worst differential in the majors. That differential was minus-18 at home. The Reds have the pitching they need to win the NL Central, but they need a major uptick in firepower to support the arms. With Martinez’s salary coming off the books, Cincinnati has a wide-open payroll, which — one would think — means lots of flexibility, whether it’s a free agency splurge or a high-impact trade.
Is it time to really unleash this rotation? The Reds have collected quite a collection of high-upside young pitchers. Some of them have established themselves in the majors — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott. Abbott had a career season in 2025, but Greene still hasn’t paired his dominance with season-long durability. Lodolo produced 28 mostly excellent starts but has plenty of room to grow in his innings count. Then you have Chase Petty, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, along with the veteran stability of Brady Singer. The ideal for 2026 would be for manager Terry Francona to push this group of seven for a full season and perhaps lighten up a bit on the innings management side of the equation. This has the potential to be among MLB’s best rotations.
Offseason prediction: The Reds will get aggressive. No, they won’t go wild, of course, but besides having a contention-worthy rotation and a star in Elly De La Cruz who is edging toward his prime, they have a 66-year-old future Hall of Fame manager in Francona who isn’t going to be around forever. — Doolittle
Eliminated by: Tigers
Key free agents: OF Lane Thomas, C Austin Hedges, RHP Jakob Junis
Biggest offseason priority: The term “Guards Ball” caught on during Cleveland’s unlikely second-half run. It was fun to watch and even inspiring. It’s also not generally how championships are won in baseball these days. The Guardians need more firepower on offense, and while there are a lot of promising bats in the system, maybe for once the team will splurge on a middle-of-the-order anchor? Yeah, that’s probably wishful thinking.
What will Cleveland get from its young hitters? It’s not hard to imagine some of the Guardians we saw on the playoff roster getting better — Kyle Manzardo, CJ Kayfus, Johnathan Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel. It’s not hard to see Chase DeLauter becoming an AL Rookie of the Year favorite. Given his numbers at Triple-A, it’s a little harder to see Travis Bazzana being part of the Opening Day mix, but it’s not difficult to envision him making a leap during the 2026 season. The crucial question the Guardians have to answer is: What will this group do to lift the offensive profile of a lineup led by Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan? The Guardians won a division title despite scoring more runs than just two other teams. That’s not a sustainable formula.
Offseason prediction: The Guardians, with prospects on the way and the roster full of players under team control, won’t do much in the offseason. They certainly can afford to with so little future guaranteed funds tied up — a big pillow contract to someone like Ohio native Kyle Schwarber would be amazing — but it’s not likely. So, take heart, Cleveland fans, and enjoy the Guardians’ still-spewing fountain of youth. — Doolittle
Eliminated by: Cubs
Key free agents: 1B/2B Luis Arraez, SP Dylan Cease, SP Michael King ($15M mutual option), CL Robert Suarez ($8M player option), 1B Ryan O’Hearn, OF Ramon Laureano ($6.5M club option), INF Jose Iglesias, RP Wandy Peralta ($4.45M player option), C Elias Diaz ($7M mutual option), SP Nestor Cortes
Biggest offseason priority: Cease and King will venture into free agency, and the Padres will have to replace them in the rotation. San Diego will have Joe Musgrove back in 2026, but he’ll be coming off Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish will still be there, but he’ll be in his age-39 season, having accumulated fewer than 100 innings each of the past two years. The depth beyond them, outside of Nick Pivetta, is suspect. First base will also be a priority unless the team brings Arraez back.
Will they spend again? The Padres lost their local-television contract in 2023, then missed out on the playoffs despite fielding arguably the most talented team in franchise history. Shortly thereafter, Peter Seidler, their beloved, free-spending owner, died. The Padres dropped the payroll by roughly 30% the following year. A 25% increase followed in 2025, putting them at roughly $215 million. Where will they go in 2026? It’s hard to say. But Manny Machado‘s salary will keep increasing — from $13 million in 2025 to $21 million in 2026 and $35 million thereafter. If they want to keep surrounding him with talent as he ages, they’ll have to keep spending.
Offseason prediction: The Padres will pay six players — Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish, Musgrove, Machado and Pivetta — a combined $120 million in 2026. The team’s success will come down to the production of those players — along with Jackson Merrill and Mason Miller, who are still not in their prime earning years. But A.J. Preller will look for ways to acquire a front-line starting pitcher and will get creative if he has to. Last offseason, he landed Pivetta on a deal that paid him only $4 million in 2025. This offseason, that front-line starter might have to come via trade. — Gonzalez
Eliminated by: Yankees
Key free agents: 3B Alex Bregman (opt-out), RHP Lucas Giolito ($19 million mutual option), OF Rob Refsnyder, RHP Dustin May, LHP Steven Matz
Biggest offseason priority: Re-signing Bregman if he opts out … and improving the starting pitching depth. Bregman had a solid season, hitting .273/.360/.462 around an injury, but aside from the numbers he also brings fire and leadership to the team. It’s also possible Bregman will opt back in at $40 million per season (for 2026 and 2027), but he had a good enough season that he’ll probably opt out. Yes, Marcelo Mayer is a possible replacement — especially if the Red Sox direct that money instead to the pitching staff.
Giolito had a solid season as a low-volume starter in his return from Tommy John surgery, so there could be mutual interest there on a longer deal. But outside of Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and perhaps rookie Connelly Early, who looked good in four late-season starts, the projected rotation is unsettled.
Will the Red Sox trade any of their outfielders/young players? It’s still a crowded outfield picture with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu (plus Masataka Yoshida, signed for two more years, as a DH option). It played itself out this season as Abreu and Anthony both missed time with injuries, while Rafaela played some infield. But Rafaela is such a wizard in center field, you’d like to keep him there. Throw in Mayer and Kristian Campbell, and the Red Sox have a deep group of young players who could be used to acquire pitching help. Craig Breslow refrained from trading anyone at the deadline, but let’s see what he does this offseason.
Offseason prediction: I think the Red Sox will play it safe and bring back a similar roster, starting with re-signing Bregman. They could then slide Mayer to second base. That still would leave four outfielders plus Campbell, who started the season with a lot of helium after making the Opening Day roster, but his defense at second wasn’t good, and he didn’t rip up Triple-A after getting sent down. If anyone is the odd man out, it’s probably him, so he’s the one most likely to get traded. Bringing back Giolito — assuming he’s healthy after missing the postseason with an elbow injury — also makes sense, as he wouldn’t break the bank but would fill a need. If he’s deemed too risky, a veteran such as Merrill Kelly or, if the Red Sox want to spend bigger, Framber Valdez or Shane Bieber, makes sense. — Schoenfield
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