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Which version of the 2025 Atlanta Braves is the real version of the 2025 Atlanta Braves?

The first few weeks of the season were quite a journey, one akin to a roller-coaster ride that, like the amusement park attraction, ended more or less where it began — at the beginning.

Entering the season, the Braves were considered the biggest threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ supremacy in the National League. While the Dodgers (preseason over/under of 103.5 wins at ESPN BET) were in a tier of their own, the Braves (93.5) topped the next tier, just ahead of a pair of division rivals in the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

Then Opening Day arrived, with the Braves starting off on a tough seven-game road trip against the San Diego Padres and Dodgers. Atlanta lost all seven games, scoring no runs or one run in four of those defeats.

That is not the way to knock the Dodgers off the mountaintop. Indeed, the old adage about early-season baseball has always been that you can’t win the pennant in April, but you might very well lose it. In becoming the 30th team since 1901 to begin a season with seven straight losses, the Braves flirted with some discouraging history.

Still, the Braves’ April story was as much defined by how they eventually responded to that early slump. Atlanta continued to flounder into the middle of the month, but then reeled off nine wins in 11 games, nearly leveling the ship.

The Braves haven’t yet reached the .500 mark this season, but it seems inevitable they soon will — and they already pushed their run differential out of negative territory. All in all, Atlanta can at least exhale after the initial stumbles.

To sum it up: Atlanta entered the campaign anointed as the Dodgers’ prime challenger — 2025 Braves version 1. They proceeded to put up one of the 30 worst starts in 125 years — 2025 Braves version 2. And before April was over, they’d already climbed back to break-even (or thereabouts) which, in effect, resets their near-disastrous season — 2025 Braves version 3.

Three very different versions of the same team. Which leads back to our initial question: Which Braves are the real Braves?


The 0-7 Braves make ugly history

As mentioned, the Braves are now one of 30 teams to begin a season 0-7, and it’s the fifth time a Braves club has appeared on that list, joining 1919, 1980, 1988 and 2016. That ties the Detroit Tigers for the most of any franchise.

Historically speaking, a start that bad and that prolonged rings the death knell in terms of pennant contention. None of the first 29 teams on the list made the playoffs. Indeed, only two managed to finish over .500, and none of the 29 ended with a positive run differential.

Thus, if the Braves complete their rapid climb back to .500 and keep that run differential in the black, they will have already subverted every other team on the 0-7 list. This really is not that surprising, because the 2025 Braves are way better than those other 29 teams.

In my historical database, among the various team measures I have are three-year power ratings, used to identify how strong (or not strong) teams were in multiseason windows. If we use Atlanta’s season-opening over/under figure as a proxy for their 2025 level, we can estimate their three-year power rating at 95.6 (or 95.6 wins per 162 games).

Only two of the other 29 teams on the 0-7 list had three-year power ratings of 81 or better — the 1945 Boston Red Sox and the 1983 Astros. Boston had a 86.6 three-year power rating, but it was a special case because of the sudden change in rosters across baseball tracing to players returning from military service. The 1945 Red Sox did not have Ted Williams, Dom DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr or Johnny Pesky. But the 1946 Red Sox had all of them, and won the pennant. A very different case than the 2025 Braves.

The 1983 Astros were more akin to these Braves, and were one of the two 0-7 starters that climbed back over .500 by the end of the season. (The other was the 1980 Braves, who finished 81-80 while being outscored by 30 runs.) Houston ended up 85-77 after its terrible start, which actually stretched to nine straight season-opening losses. The Astros finished three runs in the red in differential, however, and had a three-year power rating of 81.4, more than 14 wins shy of the current Braves.

So, of the 30 teams that started 0-7, the Braves were the most likely of them to bounce back from such a terrible beginning. They spent the last half of April proving that to be the case.


How the offense has helped fuel their turnaround

We’ve already noted how anemic the Braves’ offense was during their opening road trip. Atlanta averaged just two runs per game and batted .151 as a team during the skid. The Braves’ collective team OPS (.485) was the worst in baseball.

It took a while, but the Braves’ bats have heated up. Heading into their series with the Dodgers, Atlanta had scored 4.9 runs per game (10th in MLB) and posted a .779 OPS (fifth) since their slump. They’ve done this even as they continue to wait on Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season debut after last year’s knee surgery.

The drivers of the offensive uptick have been a little surprising. Sean Murphy had clubbed seven homers in 17 games since coming off the IL, one season after he hit 10 in 72 contests. Young catcher Drake Baldwin had a 1.009 OPS since April 3 and 30-year-old Eli White was at 1.012.

Those surprising outbursts, along with the expected contributions of Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley, have helped the offense recover even as Matt Olson (.767 OPS), Michael Harris II (.614) and Ozzie Albies (.664) were still seeking to reach their career levels.


Still, issues linger

The Braves’ pitching still rates as roughly league average for the season as a whole. Last season’s NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale has been inconsistent so far, leaving Spencer Schwellenbach as the only rotation member producing at league average or better.

Sale should be fine, but the Braves very much need their big two to become a big three because of what looks like a lack of high-quality rotation depth. In other words, after getting just one start out of Spencer Strider over the season’s first few weeks, they need him to get healthy and stay that way. Strider (Grade 1 hamstring strain) is expected to return later this month.

In the bullpen, the Braves have been so-so, mostly because of the struggles of star closer Raisel Iglesias to keep the ball in the yard. After surrendering just four long balls in all of 2024, Iglesias coughed up five homers in his first 11 outings. Because the pitching has underachieved, the Braves’ bounce-back has been more warm than boiling.

But the recovery has been undergirded by pretty strong indicators. Atlanta’s run differential during the recent 14-9 stretch is equivalent to a 94-win team over a full season, putting the Braves on par with preseason expectations during that span. The problem of course is that 0-7 start.

The other problem is that the National League is full of really good teams.


Have you heard the NL is stacked?

The Braves sat at 14-16 through 30 games. Let’s say they maintain the 94-win quality they reached during their recovery over their remaining 132 games. That’s a .580 winning percentage, which gets Atlanta to 90 or 91 wins by the end of the season.

If all the teams in the NL were to maintain their current paces (which is admittedly unlikely), there would be five teams that finished with 96 wins or more — the Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants.

You can see the Braves’ dilemma: Only one playoff slot would be up for grabs. If Atlanta is able to get to 90 or 91 wins, it would be in the mix, but would need to hope that neither Philadelphia nor the Arizona Diamondbacks (both on pace for 88 wins) catch fire, or that one of the top five fall off.

The forecasts don’t rule out anything. At FanGraphs, the Braves are making the playoffs in about 70% of simulations, as their model sees the NL East contenders as better than the non-Dodgers contenders in the NL West. Baseball Prospectus has the Braves getting to 92 wins but reaching the playoffs just 54% of the time.

Finally, at ESPN BET, the Braves’ over/under for wins has fallen to 88.5, the same as Arizona but less than the Mets (94.5), Phillies (91.5) and Padres (89.5). The upstart Giants are at 84.5.

The Braves are back in the running, but those seven games, along with the strength of the top of the NL, have reduced their margin of error considerably.


How well will they play in May — and beyond — and will it be enough?

Atlanta’s season might depend on, well, May, or these key upcoming weeks before Strider and Acuna rejoin the team. However they got here, the Braves are currently a middle-of-the-pack team at the bottom line, both in the win-loss column and by run differential. If they continue at this level while waiting for their stars to return, the strong upper tier of the NL could move away from them.

The upcoming schedule, beginning with the current series against the Dodgers, is tough in ways both obvious and sneaky.

After L.A. departs on Sunday, the over-.500 Cincinnati Reds visit, before Atlanta travels to play the Pittsburgh Pirates. There are two series against the Washington Nationals, one at home and one away, and if you’re still thinking of the Nats as pushovers, you haven’t been paying attention.

There’s a return match with San Diego, a trip to Boston, a visit from the Red Sox, and a key three-game set on the road against the Phillies. It’s not an easy docket for any club, but especially for one missing two of its biggest stars.

The Braves have mostly righted their teetering ship after their stunning start. Since those seven opening losses, they’ve been what we thought they would be. Chances are, as the season progresses, players find their level and the roster gets healthier, that will continue to be the case.

The real Braves weren’t the team that started 0-7. They might be the team that’s played much better since. Now, in what’s shaping up as a crowded and strong upper tier in the NL playoff hierarchy, they have to hope that even if they maintain their expected level, it proves to be good enough for another trip to October.

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Cardinals’ Contreras gets 6-game ban for tirade

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Cardinals' Contreras gets 6-game ban for tirade

ST. LOUIS — First baseman Willson Contreras has been suspended for six games and fined an undisclosed amount for his tirade during the St. Louis Cardinals‘ 7-6 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night.

Contreras has informed Major League Baseball he will appeal the suspension, which means it will not take effect immediately. He was in the lineup for Tuesday night’s game against the Pirates.

Contreras threw a bat that mistakenly hit Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown and tossed bubble gum on the field after he was ejected. Manager Oliver Marmol also was tossed during an animated argument with the umpires after a called third strike in the seventh inning.

Contreras said he didn’t understand why he was thrown out of the game. He said he argued balls and strikes with plate umpire Derek Thomas but didn’t address a specific pitch and didn’t say anything disrespectful.

“Apparently, he heard something [he thought] I said. I did not say that,” Contreras said.

Crew chief Jordan Baker told a pool reporter that Contreras and Marmol were ejected for “saying vulgar stuff” to Thomas. Baker also said Contreras made contact with the plate umpire.

After Monday’s win, Marmol agreed with his player.

“We’ll have to dive into it to make sure what Willson’s saying is what happened,” he said at the time. “But I believe him.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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AL Cy Young contender Eovaldi likely done for ’25

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AL Cy Young contender Eovaldi likely done for '25

ARLINGTON, Texas — Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is likely done for the season because of a rotator cuff strain, another huge blow to the Texas Rangers and their hopes of making a late push for a playoff spot.

Eovaldi, who is 11-3 with a career-best 1.73 ERA in 22 starts but just short of the innings needed to qualify as the MLB leader, was among the favorites for the American League Cy Young Award.

He said Tuesday that he had an MRI after shutting down a bullpen session between starts because of continued soreness. The 35-year-old pitcher said he was more sore than normal but was surprised by those results since he hasn’t had any shoulder issues in his 14 MLB seasons.

“It just felt like it was getting a little worse, so I shut it down and had the trainers look at it,” Eovaldi said. “Obviously, it’s just frustrating given how great the season’s been going. … I don’t want to rule out the rest of the season, but it’s not looking very great.”

Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said Eovaldi likely will be put on the 15-day injured list Wednesday. He was supposed to start against the Los Angeles Angels in another opportunity to become MLB’s qualified ERA leader.

After allowing one run in seven innings against the Cleveland Guardians in his last start Friday, Eovaldi was the official ERA leader for one night. That put him at 130 innings in 130 Rangers games, and ahead of All-Star starters Paul Skenes (2.07) and Tarik Skubal (2.28) until Texas played the following day — pitchers need to average one inning per team game to qualify.

Entering Tuesday, Eovaldi was tied for third among AL Cy Young favorites with 30-1 odds at ESPN BET.

“Obviously it’s a big blow. He’s been just a tremendous teammate and competitor for us all year long,” Young said. “Hate to see this happen to somebody who’s been so important to the organization. But it seems par for the course with how some of the season has gone. So hate it for Evo, hate it for the team.”

With 29 games remaining going into Tuesday night, the Rangers were 5½ games back of Seattle for the American League’s last wild-card spot. The Mariners and Kansas City both hold tiebreakers over Texas.

The Rangers lost center fielder Evan Carter because of a right wrist fracture when he was hit by a pitch in Kansas City on Thursday. In that same game, durable second baseman Marcus Semien fouled a pitch off the top of his left foot, sending him to the IL for only the second time in his 13 MLB seasons. First baseman Jake Burger (left wrist sprain) also went on the IL during that road trip.

Semien and Eovaldi could potentially return if the Rangers make the playoffs and go on a deep run since neither is expected to need surgery. Semien’s recovery timeline is four to six weeks, and Eovaldi said he would get another MRI in about four weeks. Just under five weeks remain until the regular-season finale Sept. 28 at Cleveland.

Eovaldi has been one of baseball’s best pitchers all season, and part of the Rangers’ MLB-leading 3.43 ERA as a staff. He was left off the American League All-Star team and hasn’t been among qualified leaders after missing most of June with elbow inflammation, but Texas still gave him a $100,000 All-Star bonus that is in his contract.

This is Eovaldi’s third consecutive season with at least 11 wins since joining his home state team, and last December he signed a new $75 million, three-year contract through 2027. The 35-year-old Eovaldi and Hall of Fame strikeout king Nolan Ryan are the only big league players from Alvin, Texas.

Eovaldi has a 102-84 career record and 3.84 ERA over 14 big league seasons with six teams and has won World Series championships with Boston in 2018 and Texas in 2023. He made his MLB debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers (2011-12) and later pitched for Miami (2012-14), the New York Yankees (2015-16), Tampa Bay (2018) and Boston (2018-22).

“I take a lot of pride in being able to go every five days,” Eovaldi said. “To have the outcome that we have now, it’s very tough for me. And you always feel like there’s some way to be able to prevent an injury from happening. And, unfortunately, I wasn’t able to do that.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Mets rush ‘dominating’ prospect Tong into rotation

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Mets rush 'dominating' prospect Tong into rotation

NEW YORK — The Mets are calling up top-tier pitching prospect Jonah Tong, manager Carlos Mendoza announced Tuesday, as the club continues to bolster its staff with young talent for the stretch run.

Mendoza said Tong will start against the Miami Marlins on Friday in his major league debut.

Tong pitched himself into the big league picture with arguably the best season for a pitcher in the minor leagues, going 10-5 with a 1.43 ERA in 113 ⅔ innings across 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season. The 22-year-old right-hander was recently promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, where he tossed 11 ⅔ scoreless innings over two outings.

“I think it’s all about dominating the minors,” Mendoza said. “It’s hard to keep him there.”

The consistent dominance, in combination with debilitating underperformance from veterans in the Mets’ starting rotation, prompted president of baseball operations David Stearns, who preaches patience in player development, to make the call.

Tong was the No. 21 prospect in baseball in the latest rankings by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. The Canadian will join Nolan McLean, the team’s No. 2 prospect who soared through the upper minors and was called up to boost the Mets’ struggling rotation earlier this month.

“This is fast,” Stearns said. “There’s no question this is fast. He’s pushed us on this because of his performance. We think he’s ready for this. We also acknowledge that this has gone faster than any of us would have anticipated at the start of this year.”

The decision to summon Tong came one day after veteran right-hander Kodai Senga continued his recent struggles, logging just four innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on four days’ rest.

Senga has a 5.40 ERA and has not completed six innings in eight starts since coming off the injured list last month. Mendoza indicated the team prefers to give Senga an extra day of rest moving forward.

“I’m going to be honest: Performance matters,” Mendoza said about Senga. “We’re to a point now where we got to see performance. And that was a conversation with him. We need him because he’s an ace. We’ve seen it in the past, but we haven’t been able to get that consistency. So, yeah, maybe it’s the regular rest, the extra day, whatever that is. We’re getting to a point where like every game, we got to put our best guys out there.”

Entering Tuesday, the Mets are 2 ½ games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the final National League wild card spot.

The baby-faced Tong, a seventh-round pick out of high school in 2022, made a significant leap forward in his development in 2024, but he reported to spring training this year seemingly on a path for a 2026 major league debut — as evidenced by the Mets’ decision not to invite him to big league camp.

Mendoza said he met Tong while watching a minor league game on a back field in which Tong was the ball boy.

“When you’re in the minor leagues, you got to go through those duties,” Mendoza said. “And that day, he happened to be on the Triple-A bench, and he was the ball boy and I sat right next to him, and I had a brief conversation. Kind of introduced myself [to] kind of get to know him.

“Genuine, humble and you could just see the youth on his face. It was, I don’t know, 10 minutes that we sat there and watched the game while I was trying to get to know him a little bit.”

Tong, who represented the Mets at the Futures Game last month, leads all 196 qualified minor league pitchers in ERA, FIP (1.66), batting average against (.148) and strikeout rate (40.5%) this season. His 0.92 WHIP ranks second. He has compiled 179 strikeouts and allowed just two home runs.

He boasts a fastball in the mid-90s that touches 97 mph and has produced a whiff rate of 36.5% this season. This year, he added a changeup in the mid-80s that has emerged as his second-most used offering and improved his effectiveness against left-handed hitters. A curveball and slider complete his repertoire.

Slight for a pitcher — he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 180 pounds — with a smooth and deceptive over-the-top delivery, Tong has drawn comparisons to former Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.

“What’s impressed us the most is the speed with which he’s expanded his arsenal in really effective ways,” Stearns said. “So, he’s added a changeup this year that’s been really good. And we’ve seen outings that have shown, I think, tremendous maturity on the mound — where something’s not working, he’s then able to switch an approach and go to the slider more, throw a few more curveballs, and allow himself to get through outings really successfully, even if he’s not following the exact plan that he thought he was going to follow when he went into the game.”

The Mets chose promoting Tong over Brandon Sproat, another highly regarded pitching prospect in Triple-A. Stearns explained the organization’s decision as a product of Tong’s excellence and the timing of the start, which will keep Tong, who last pitched on Saturday, on turn.

Sproat, 24, gave up seven runs across 3 ⅔ innings out of the bullpen for Syracuse on Saturday after recording a 2.05 ERA over his previous nine outings, all starts.

“Brandon’s done a tremendous job, and he’s probably had as good a second half of season as any pitcher in minor league baseball,” Stearns said. “He’s made some real adjustments. He’s pitched great.”

The Mets’ plan for Tong after Friday is unclear. While McLean has cemented himself in the club’s starting rotation after allowing just two runs over 12 ⅓ innings in his first two starts, Tong will join the Mets as their sixth starter.

Mendoza said he didn’t know if Tong would move to the bullpen following Friday’s start.

“We’re going turn by turn at this point,” Stearns said. “And it’s going to be a combination of what the matchups are, who we think match up well, how our guys are throwing, who needs rest, who doesn’t need rest. I think in September, we try not to plan too far ahead and we’re going to go turn by turn.”

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