How the kick change — MLB’s hottest new pitch — has kick-started the Mets’ rotation
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning have a few obvious things in common. They’re right-handed pitchers. They’re members of a Mets starting rotation that has so far trounced external expectations, posting the lowest collective ERA in baseball. And, for different reasons, each is striving to prove he belongs.
Dig a little deeper, though, and another connection can be found, hidden within each of their pitch arsenals this season: the kick change, a changeup-splitter hybrid that has surged in popularity since San Francisco Giants right-hander Hayden Birdsong introduced it to Major League Baseball a year ago.
Holmes began working on the pitch in November, intent on mastering the offering to ease his upcoming transition from reliever to starter. Megill, seemingly always the odd man out of the Mets’ rotation since debuting in 2021, saw all the uproar around the pitch and tried it toward the end of the offseason. Canning, a once-hyped prospect seeking to rebound on a one-year contract, threw his first kick change warming up for his Mets debut in Houston, having fiddled with grips on the bench the day before.
Together they have combined for a 2.66 ERA in 108⅔ innings across 21 starts for the club with the third-best record in baseball. The kick change is just one factor in their success, and a recent product of a larger data-driven trend dominating the industry over the past decade.
“You have guys that are maybe looking for a job or they’re incentivized to try something new, and they get it to work and then it spreads like wildfire,” Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner said. “It’s a copycat league. It’s always been a copycat league.”
THE KICK CHANGE, in layman’s terms, is a modified changeup. It features a changeup-like grip and generates changeup-like spin but has splitter-like movement — think vertical depth — and is thrown harder. A traditional changeup has more fade, moving horizontally to the pitcher’s arm side. When optimized, a right-hander’s kick change can resemble a left-hander’s curveball.
What makes the kick-change grip different is the middle finger is spiked — raised off the ball (pitchers’ fingers lay flat on the ball for traditional changeups). Spiking the middle finger “kicks” the ball’s axis forward through release, which alters how the ball spins and produces the pitch’s downward movement, while the ring finger cuts down efficiency, killing the spin to produce more tumble.
There are subtle variations to the grip: Megill, for example, has bigger hands so he spikes his middle finger more than Holmes and Canning; finger placement along the seams can also vary.
The pitch and its swift spread exemplify the technological advancements made in the sport and the resulting increased willingness for players to experiment to discover every edge possible. Accordingly, different pitches — whether new inventions, recycled offerings or conventional pitches used in other ways — have become en vogue seemingly every year.
“I think it’s just looking at, what do we know about the ball?” New York Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake said. “What do we know about spin dynamics? And how do we keep evolving guys’ arsenals? And I think, with this one in particular, you see one guy get it and the league has all the tracking tools. So, anyone that comes through and throws a certain pitch, you get a look at it. It just gets replicated along the way.”
At the turn of the decade, the sweeper took the sport by storm. Before that, the high fastball became a geek favorite and filtered down to the players. This year, it’s the kick change’s turn.
THE THREE METS starters are part of a growing group of kick-change aficionados.
Chicago White Sox right-hander Davis Martin became an early adopter last season after Birdsong’s success. New kick-change operators this season include Texas Rangers rookie right-hander Jack Leiter and Minnesota Twins veteran right-hander Pablo Lopez, who has also continued throwing a traditional changeup.
“I picked it up toward the last one or two weeks of spring training,” Lopez said. “And right now it’s to the point that if certain days it’s moving, I’m like, ‘OK, it’s pretty good.’ Some days it’s just floating. Don’t want to throw a floater against Bobby Witt Jr.
“My normal changeup still gets movement. It still gets swings. I can locate it better. So, if I throw two in the pregame bullpen and that thing is just floating or sailing, I’m like, then it’s not the day for it. I’ll throw one in the warmups to see if it’s there.”
The best traditional changeups are usually thrown by pronators — pitchers with a pronation bias, meaning they tend to throw a baseball by rotating their forearm and wrist inward. Supinators rotate their forearm and wrist outward, positioning them better for breaking pitches with glove-side movement.
In 2023, Leif Strom, the director of pitching at Tread Athletics, an independent pitching development lab outside of Charlotte, North Carolina, sought to find a pitch for supinators to better neutralize left-handed hitters. Strom scoured Tread’s internal archives in search of pitches with the desired movement profile and found fewer than 50 thrown. Using those pitches as models to study, Strom is credited with identifying, naming and applying an understanding of the kick change.
“We started to see some on X or Instagram, and when I started to see those that’s when I thought it would probably be a big thing because effectiveness is one part of the equation,” Strom said. “If this pitch is effective, it’s going to spread no matter what.
“But in terms of a pitch spreading quickly, I feel like you have to have a visual component that the sweeper did. And it just so happened that the kick change had that visual component.”
Birdsong, a 2022 sixth-round pick who had reached Double-A in 2023, was the first major leaguer to throw one in a game in June. He developed it last year after reporting to camp frustrated with his changeup.
“I tried 100 different grips and nothing worked,” Birdsong, 23, said. “I was throwing just a really bad fastball.”
He finally found his answer when he watched a video of the kick change on social media. He started throwing it the next day in spring training and it immediately clicked. He used it in his next bullpen and managed to throw a changeup with a negative vertical break — a metric used to quantify a pitch’s vertical movement in inches — for the first time in his life. He honed it from there.
Birdsong made his major league debut in June and threw the pitch 18.4% of the time over 16 starts. This year, working out of the bullpen, his kick change usage is up to 24.1%. It has a 46.7% swing-and-miss rate and has held hitters to a .188 batting average. He owns a 1.47 ERA in nine relief appearances.
The White Sox’s Martin was introduced to the pitch between starts in August by Brian Bannister, Chicago’s director of pitching, and Ethan Katz, the team’s pitching coach. Martin reached the majors in 2022 and threw his changeup about 10% of the time that season. But in his first major league start of the 2024 campaign, he gave up four runs in 3⅔ innings without throwing one at all.
“I went out to play catch,” Martin said, “and they were just like, ‘Yeah, your changeup sucks.'”
On the spot, they showed Martin the kick-change grip, and he threw a few from 80 feet. The first one felt weird. The second one tumbled enough to think there was something there. He then threw a few off the mound and the movement remained. A day later, he held the Athletics to two hits over six scoreless innings.
“I threw like 21 or 22 of them,” Martin said.
By autumn, the pitch was no longer a secret — and one free agent in particular took note.
UNLIKE BIRDSONG AND Martin, Holmes was an established major league pitcher with two All-Star nods when he dipped his toe in the kick-change pool.
Last season, while still closing games for the Yankees, Holmes dabbled with a traditional changeup during bullpens at teammate Luke Weaver‘s urging. Holmes quickly developed one that wowed Weaver, a changeup specialist. But given his role pitching late in high-leverage situations, Holmes chose not to throw any changeups in games.
“His changeup was sick,” Weaver said. “And we would talk about it a lot, and I was like, ‘I’m done talking about it. Until you go prove it in a game, I don’t want to talk about it.’ Just joking with him. But then he went in the offseason, and he elevated it.”
When teams contacted Holmes in free agency with interest in converting him back to a starting pitcher — he broke into the majors as a starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018 — Holmes knew the move would require implementing a pitch against left-handers to complement his repertoire of sinker, slider and sweeper. The changeup he sharpened in those bullpen sessions during the 2024 season was good, but he probed for better. Eventually, Holmes, a supinator, landed on the kick change working remotely with Tread Athletics.
“I threw some good ones early on with it and definitely felt uncomfortable, felt different,” said Holmes, who signed a three-year, $38 million contract with the Mets in December. “But I kind of knew some good ones were in there and so I just kind of kept messing around, kept tinkering with it until I found something that felt good. And just kind of started to evolve over the offseason.”
Holmes’ kick change was ready by the time he showed up in Port St. Lucie, Florida, for spring training. Strom recalled seeing one Holmes threw during an exhibition game — 88 mph with a negative 10 vertical break — as one of the best he’s seen.
More importantly, the kick change has helped the 32-year-old Holmes record a 2.95 ERA through seven starts. He’s using the pitch 16.2% of the time, holding opponents to a .182 batting average with one extra-base hit and a 38.2% whiff rate. The kick change isn’t merely a luxury for Holmes — his pitching coach believes his shift to the rotation might have been a lost cause without it.
“I would say no, it’s not possible without the changeup, some form of the changeup,” Hefner said. “Whether it’s the split or a kick change or a traditional circle change, he needed that versus lefties just to give them another look.”
Late last month, Holmes assumed the role of kick-change instructor. Megill had used a kick change earlier in the season, replacing his splitter with it, but the pitch just wasn’t feeling right anymore. The grip seemed off and it wasn’t good enough to use in games. So, he sought help from Holmes during a bullpen session, and they worked together to change the grip.
“That made it a lot more consistent,” the 29-year-old Megill said.
Three days later, on April 21, Megill tossed 5⅓ scoreless innings and tied his career high of 10 strikeouts against the Philadelphia Phillies. Afterward, he highlighted his four-seam fastball and sinker, a pitch he incorporated last season, as the primary reasons for his success that night.
But he also generated three whiffs with eight kick changes, all thrown to left-handed hitters. When he found himself in his deepest trouble, with the bases loaded and two outs and slugger Kyle Schwarber at the plate in the third inning, he threw three straight kick changes and struck Schwarber out on an 88-mph offering. The pitch was out of the strike zone and Schwarber — who ranks in the 93rd percentile in chase rate across the majors — swung and missed.
Just like that, it became a weapon for Megill, who has a 2.50 ERA and 45 strikeouts across 36 innings through seven outings. He’s thrown 41 kick changes this season — 33 to left-handed hitters — with a 50% swing-and-miss rate and given up one hit with it.
“I got everything I need right now,” Megill said. “My first two times through [the lineup], I can get away all day with four-seam, sinker, slider. Third time through it’s like, all right, I need that fourth pitch. That’s where the changeup comes in.”
Canning’s relationship with the kick change is a bit different. The 28-year-old wasn’t desperate for a changeup after signing a one-year, $4.25 million deal with the Mets in December. Throwing a traditional changeup comes easy to him and he relied on one heavily during his five seasons with the Los Angeles Angels.
But Canning liked the vertical movement his kick change produced when he threw it for the first time warming up to face the Houston Astros on March 29. The grip alteration was minor; he spiked his finger ever so slightly to transform the ball’s trajectory. He ditched his traditional arm-side-fade changeup that day and held the Astros to two runs across 5⅔ innings in his Mets debut.
Canning incorporated both offerings in a few April starts, giving hitters slightly different looks at the same velocity, between 88 and 90 mph. In recent outings, however, Canning has ditched the kick change, at least temporarily.
“I think it’s actually helped me with my regular changeup,” said Canning, who is sporting a 2.50 ERA through seven starts after compiling a 5.19 ERA with the Angels last year. “It’s part of the season, part of the ebbs and flows.”
Canning said he could end up throwing the kick change again this season. But it’s not essential for his success, not in the way it is for Holmes. It’s another tool in his kit, one that is helping the Mets perplex opposing hitters this season — just as it is for a growing group of pitchers across the majors.
“Everybody thought I was weird for throwing it,” Birdsong said. “Then it took off and it moved to different orgs. And now it’s everywhere.”
ESPN’s Jeff Passan contributed to this report.
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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