Ballpark evictions, broken bats and Goliath vs. Goliath: The 10 hottest times in New York baseball history
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David Schoenfield
Don’t tell this to New Yorkers, but baseball wasn’t necessarily invented in the city.
Bat-and-ball games go all the way back to ancient Egypt nearly 4,500 years ago, John Thorn writes in his book “Baseball in the Garden of Eden”, with a game called seker-hemat, or “batting the ball.” In the temple of Hatshepsut, there is a wall relief of Thutmose III holding a ball in one hand and a stick in the other. Thutmose III is regarded as one of the greatest military strategists and warrior pharaohs of all time, but perhaps he was also the Aaron Judge of the Nile.
But in more recent times, baseball has often revolved around New York City — from the famous match game in 1846 between the Knickerbocker Base Ball Club and the New York Ball Club played at the Elysian Fields right across the Hudson River in Hoboken, New Jersey, to John McGraw’s transformative New York Giants of the first three decades of the 20th century to the New York Yankees of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig to the Brooklyn Dodgers signing Jackie Robinson and on and on, all the way to the present day battle of “Goliath vs. Goliath,” as the New Yorker put it, in reference to Juan Soto and the New York Mets taking on Judge and the Yankees for the hearts and wallets of Gotham City baseball fans.
The teams meet at Yankee Stadium as part of MLB’s rivalry weekend, and the boos that will rain down on Soto will signify a new level of heat between the Mets and Yankees. With this series in mind, let’s go back through history and find 10 times when New York’s baseball rivalries have been at their most fiery.
Jump to a moment:
McGraw kicks Yanks out of Polo Grounds | Ruth builds a house
The Shot Heard ‘Round the World | Willie, Mickey and the Duke
Mr. October in, Tom Terrific out | ’86 Mets take over the town
Interleague play begins | The Subway World Series
New ballparks in Bronx and Queens | Soto flees to Flushing
1920: John McGraw kicks the Yankees out of the Polo Grounds
Here’s how the story goes: McGraw, the Hall of Fame manager of the New York Giants, had built his team into a powerhouse in the National League, winning six pennants from 1904 to 1917, while the Yankees, who leased the Polo Grounds from the Giants beginning in 1913, usually finished near the bottom of the American League standings.
Then the Yankees acquired Babe Ruth in 1920 — and fans flocked to see this new slugging outfielder. On May 14, the Giants — McGraw was now a part-owner of the club — informed the Yankees their lease would not be renewed for 1921. With Ruth on his way to shattering the single-season record with 54 home runs and the Yankees on their way to drawing more than a million fans — something the Giants had never done — McGraw was jealous of the Yankees’ new drawing card. The Yankees had to go.
Is that what really happened? It’s possible, especially knowing McGraw, who was no fan of Ruth or his newfangled style of hitting. But the Yankees had played only 12 home games at that point, arguably too soon for attendance jealousy to set in, and the Giants did relent on the lease for 1921 a week later, albeit at a sizable increase. In the bigger picture, the Giants certainly now viewed the Yankees as a potential rival.
That became clear when the teams met in the World Series in 1921 and 1922. The Giants won both times as Ruth didn’t do much in either series, hitting .313 with one home run in a series that went eight games in 1921, but sitting out the final three games, except for a pinch-hitting appearance, because of an infected elbow, and then hitting .118 in 1922. It would be McGraw’s last World Series title.
1923: The Babe builds a house, turns NYC into a Yankees town
The lease scare of 1920 finally pushed the Yankees into building their own home ballpark, something the American League had reportedly been pressuring the Yankees to do since 1915. “The Yankees will have to build a park in Queens or some other out-of-the-way place,” McGraw reportedly said. “Let them go away and wither on the vine.”
Instead, Yankees owners Jacob Ruppert and Tillinghast Huston purchased the site of an old lumber mill — directly across the Harlem River from the Polo Grounds. The groundbreaking for the new ballpark took place in May 1922 and it was completed in less than a year at a cost of $2.5 million. But Ruppert and Huston wanted something more than a ballpark: They wanted a stadium, with a seating capacity larger than any other current venue.
The original designs called for an enclosed stadium with a seating capacity of 80,000, but the design was modified and the upper decks stopped at the foul poles (they weren’t extended into the outfield until 1937). That meant Ruth never actually hit any upper-deck home runs at Yankee Stadium.
He did homer in the first game there on April 18, 1923. “In the third inning, with two teammates on the baselines, Babe Ruth smashed a savage home run into the right field bleachers, and that was the real baptism of the new Yankee Stadium,” the New York Times wrote.
The new stadium became, unofficially, the House That Ruth Built.
The Yankees would draw more than a million fans for a fourth straight season. The Giants drew 820,000 as the two teams met again in the World Series. This time, Ruth delivered. He homered twice in Game 2, was walked eight times, hit .368 and homered again in the clinching victory in Game 6.
The Yankees had their first title. They would win 26 more.
1951: The ‘Shot Heard ‘Round the World’
The Yankees continued to dominate through the Ruth era. He retired, DiMaggio entered the scene, and the Yankees won four World Series in a row from 1936 to 1939 — including two over the Giants, now in their post-McGraw era.
Meanwhile, the Giants and Brooklyn Dodgers were fighting for National League supremacy. Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947 and the Dodgers soon added Roy Campanella and Don Newcombe. The Giants signed Negro Leagues star Monte Irvin in 1949 and then called up an exciting rookie named Willie Mays in May 1951.
That season produced the most famous pennant race in history. The Dodgers had a 13-game lead on Aug. 13, but the Giants went 36-8 the rest of the way — it would surface five decades later that the Giants deployed a telescope in center field at the Polo Grounds and rigged a wire going to a buzzer in the bullpen where signals were relayed to the batter — and the teams finished in a tie, necessitating a three-game tiebreaker.
It came down to the bottom of the ninth of the third game, the Dodgers trying to close out a 4-1 lead. After two hits, an out and Whitey Lockman’s RBI double that made it 4-2, Dodgers skipper Chuck Dressen summoned Ralph Branca out of the bullpen to replace Newcombe. Carl Erskine was warming up alongside Branca, but legend has it he bounced a couple of curveballs in the dirt, so coach Clyde Sukeforth advised Dressen to go with Branca to face Bobby Thomson, even though Thomson had homered off Branca in the first game of the tiebreaker.
The first pitch was a called strike. The second pitch was a fastball, high and inside. Giants broadcaster Russ Hodges delivered the call:
“Branca throws … There’s a long fly … it’s gonna be … I believe … the Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant! Bobby hit it into the lower deck of the left-field stands. The Giants win the pennant and they’re going crazy. I don’t believe it! I don’t believe it! I will not believe it! Bobby Thomson hit a line drive into the lower deck of the left-field stands and the place is going crazy!”
New York Herald Tribune columnist Red Smith wrote perhaps the most famous lede in sportswriting history:
“Now it is done. Now the story ends. And there is no way to tell it. The art of fiction is dead. Reality has strangled invention. Only the utterly impossible, the inexpressibly fantastic, can ever be plausible again.”
(The Yankees won the World Series, their third of five in a row.)
The 1950s: Willie, Mickey and the Duke
Nothing symbolized the golden age of New York baseball more than that great existential question: Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle or Duke Snider? Three Hall of Fame center fielders, all playing in the same city at the same time. “You could get a fat lip in any saloon by starting an argument as to which was best,” Smith wrote.
All these years later, it’s easy to forget the debate lasted only four years, from 1954 to 1957. Mays and Mantle were rookies in 1951, not yet at their glorious best, but then Mays was drafted into the Army and missed most of the 1952 season and all of 1953. The Dodgers and Giants would then slump off to California after the 1957 season.
Who was best? Their statistics over those four years:
Mays: .323/.397/.627, 163 HRs, 418 RBIs, 110 SBs, 35.5 WAR
Mantle: .330/.453/.625, 150 HRs, 425 RBIs, 39 SBs, 39.0 WAR
Snider: .305/.403/.616, 165 HRs, 459 RBIs, 21 SBs, 29.3 WAR
By modern analytic methods, Snider trails as a distant third, but he topped Mays and Mantle in both home runs and RBIs, and his best season came in 1953, so he gets shortchanged a bit in WAR. He could more than hold his own with Mays and Mantle, perhaps worth a diehard fan risking a fat lip over.
From 1949 to 1958, New York teams represented 16 of the 20 teams in the World Series, winning nine. In this four-year period, Mays’ Giants won in 1954, Snider’s Dodgers in 1955 and Mantle’s Yankees in 1956. Then it was over. For a time, New York became a one-team city, with the Yankees’ dynasty rolling along until 1964.
1977: In with Mr. October, out with Tom Terrific
The Mets were born in 1962, playing in the old Polo Grounds until Shea Stadium opened in 1964. Even though the Mets were terrible in that first season at Shea, losing 109 games, and the Yankees went to another World Series, the Mets outdrew the Yankees — as they would every year the rest of the decade and into the 1970s. Along the way, the Miracle Mets won the World Series in 1969 and reached another World Series in 1973.
The Yankees, while not terrible, were floundering. They even played at Shea Stadium in 1974 and ’75 as Yankee Stadium received a makeover. In 1976, the Yankees made it back to the World Series for the first time in 12 years. The Mets finished a respectable 86-76. A new era of free agency ushered in the 1977 season and the Yankees had an owner in George Steinbrenner willing to spend money — and happy to grab all the back-page headlines from the Mets.
The Yankees signed Reggie Jackson to a five-year, $3.5 million contract. Suddenly, Mets franchise icon Tom Seaver’s $225,000 salary looked dated. He told reporters he might have been better off not signing the contract and filing for free agency. Mets president M. Donald Grant called Seaver an “ingrate” and complained about the new economic system in the game. Writers sparred in the newspapers. Finally, June 15, The Midnight Massacre: With the Mets mired in last place, the team traded Seaver to the Cincinnati Reds.
That season began a seven-year run of irrelevance and losing seasons for the Mets. The Yankees? They were again the toast of New York, and that fall Jackson became Mr. October when he hit three home runs in the clinching game of the World Series to beat the Dodgers.
1986: The Mets take over the town again
The Yankees reached peak dysfunction in the 1980s while the Mets rebuilt around young stars Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden, and veterans Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter. Steinbrenner ran through managers as if they were paper towels, including hiring Billy Martin three different times in the decade (and five times overall). The Mets hired Davey Johnson and built the best farm system in the game.
In 1986, the Mets had one of the best teams in National League history, going 108-54 and drawing more than 2.7 million fans (and topping 3 million the next two seasons). They fought opponents on the field, partied hard off it, destroyed a plane with their boozing and a food fight after winning the NL Championship Series and escaped to win the World Series. The Yankees won 90 games that season but attendance dropped to 2.2 million and Steinbrenner’s constant interference — in part, he was trying to keep up with the Mets — eventually led to a series of bad trades, bad free agent signings and four straight losing seasons as attendance dropped below 2 million.
But the Mets couldn’t stay on top either. Strawberry and Gooden had off-the-field problems (and would both revive their careers as Yankees). Hernandez and Carter got old. They made bad trades. In 1993, they finished 59-103 despite one of the highest payrolls in the sport: The worst team money could buy.
1997: Interleague play begins
Interleague play meant the Yankees and Mets would now meet in the regular season. The rivalry was no longer about getting the headlines and controlling the airwaves but beating the other team on the field. Fans invaded each other’s stadiums. The first game came at Yankee Stadium.
“The capacity crowd was screaming its split personality for all it was worth, with cries of ‘Let’s Go Mets’ and ‘Let’s Go Yankees’ competing on the airwaves, their different rhythms creating a different kind of cacophony than had ever been heard before in the Bronx ballpark,” Bruce Weber wrote in The New York Times.
The Mets would win 6-0 behind Dave Mlicki’s shutout. One Yankees fan said he was going to call in sick for work the following day. “I feel like screaming, ‘What’s going on here?'” the fan said. “We’re the Yankees. They’re the Mets.”
One of the most memorable games came on July 10, 1999, when the Mets rallied for two runs to beat Mariano Rivera on Matt Franco’s walk-off two-run, pinch-hit single — following a questionable ball call on an 0-2 pitch. On June 12, 2009, nothing summarized the Yankees’ winning ways and the Mets’ frustrating mediocrity better than Mets second baseman Luis Castillo dropping Alex Rodriguez’s would-be game-ending pop fly, allowing two runs to score and the Yankees to walk off with an improbable victory.
But one interleague moment stands out above all others, because it led to one of the most memorable moments in World Series history. In June 2000, Mike Piazza belted a grand slam off Roger Clemens on the way to a 12-2 Mets win. The teams met again a month later for a day-night doubleheader. In the nightcap, Clemens drilled Piazza in the helmet. Piazza remained on the ground for several minutes and sat out for a week because of a concussion.
The bad blood remained — and ultimately boiled over — as both teams eventually advanced to the World Series, the first Subway Series since the Yankees and Dodgers met in 1956.
2000: The Subway Series ends in a three-peat for the Yankees
“This is gonna break up a lot of families,” Yankees manager Joe Torre said before the start of the series. The Yankees were going for a third straight World Series championship and fourth in five years. The Mets had Piazza, Edgardo Alfonzo and a rookie call-up named Timo Perez with 24 games of major league experience.
New Yorkers had to pick a side. Even objective journalists such as ESPN’s Steve Wulf: “Just when I think I can’t take any more whining from [Chuck] Knoblauch, just when I find the superiority of Yankee fans so insufferable, just when I think I’m ready to throw in the white towel and go over to Mr. Met, I see this face,” Wulf wrote. “It’s a face like a baseball glove: old and new, homely and appealing, resolute and kind. It’s the face of a Giants fan who grew up in Brooklyn. It’s the face of Joe Torre. It’s the face of New York.”
Game 1 was scoreless in the sixth inning and Perez was on first base with two outs when Todd Zeile launched a fly ball to left field. Perez thought it was going to be a home run; it hit the top of the wall. By the time Perez started sprinting hard as he rounded third base, it was too late: Derek Jeter threw him out. The Yankees would go on to a 4-3 victory in 12 innings.
Then came the infamous bat toss in Game 2. Clemens started for the Yankees.
“Clemens’s beaning of Piazza three and a half months ago has hovered over this Series, and although Torre has accused the news media of reopening the wound in the last week, the Mets’ hostility toward Clemens has never really dissipated,” Buster Olney wrote in The Times. “Everything Clemens did … would be seen by the Mets through the prism of that incident in July.”
Clemens faced Piazza in the first inning and the Mets’ catcher dribbled a foul ball, breaking his bat in the process. Clemens picked up the barrel of the shattered bat and fired it in the direction of Piazza, who had started jogging toward first base. Benches cleared.
“There was no intent there,” Clemens would say after the game. “I had no idea that Mike was running.”
In the end: Clemens pitched eight shutout innings, giving up only two hits. The Yankees were up 2-0.
They would win in five games, three World Series in a row, their dynasty secured. No team has repeated as champion since.
2009: Yankees and Mets open new ballparks … in the same week
Back in 1998, a 500-pound concrete-and-steel beam crashed into the seats below at Yankee Stadium. Luckily, it happened when the stadium was empty, but the incident certainly strengthened the hand of Steinbrenner in getting a new stadium. Shea? You could buy tickets for a Mets game and get a seat that literally didn’t exist. If the Yankees were going to get a new stadium, the Mets needed one as well.
Both teams would build their new stadiums next to the old ones. The new Yankee Stadium resembled the old one and cost $2.3 billion (about $670 million from the Yankees). The exterior of Citi Field looked like old Ebbets Field, where the Dodgers had played. It cost $900 million ($135 million from the Mets).
“Shea was old when it was new and the old Yankee Stadium never got old,” Tim McCarver, the Fox baseball analyst said when the stadiums opened. “You could have gone on and on and on with the old Yankee Stadium. You could not have done that with Shea.”
The Mets opened first, on April 13, losing 6-5 to the Padres. Seaver threw out the first pitch, but then the bumbling Mets showed up. Pitcher Mike Pelfrey got his cleat caught in the dirt and fell off the mound. Jose Reyes slid past second base and was called out. Ryan Church turned a fly ball into a three-base error.
The Yankees opened three days later — they also lost, 10-2 to Cleveland, as the bullpen gave up nine runs in the seventh inning. But that game was merely a blip in what would turn into a championship season, the franchise’s 27th — and, to date, most recent — title.
2024: Uncle Steve signs Soto away from the Yankees
Before the 2024 season, the Yankees had traded for Soto and he delivered a huge campaign, hitting .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and finishing third in the MVP voting. He helped the Yankees reach their first World Series since 2009. Then he became a free agent.
Ever since they signed Reggie Jackson, the Yankees had used their checkbooks to sign the free agents they wanted or trade for high-priced talent: Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson, David Cone, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole.
The Mets? Before Steve Cohen bought the team after the 2020 season, the biggest free agent they had signed was Carlos Beltran in 2005. The second biggest? Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes. Third biggest? Jason Bay.
This wasn’t exactly Yankees territory.
The Yankees wanted Soto. The Mets got him: 15 years, $765 million.
“Think about that for a second,” Jeff Passan wrote on ESPN. “A Yankee chose to be a Met. And not just any Yankee: one who helped lead the storied franchise to the World Series this year, one whom the team was equally prepared to pay $700 million-plus over 15 seasons.”
So here we are. Mets-Yankees, Soto and Judge, both teams in first place, a continuation, in a sense, of a New York rivalry that goes back to John McGraw and Babe Ruth.
With Judge the best hitter in the game and Soto starting to heat up with five home runs in May after a slow start, they will be front and center in this series. It reminds us of a McGraw quote before the 1921 World Series.
“Why shouldn’t we pitch to Babe Ruth? We pitch to better hitters in the National League,” McGraw said.
He won that time. Ruth won in the end. Who will win this time?
Sports
MLB playoff mega-preview: World Series odds, likely MVPs and how far all 8 remaining teams will go
The 2025 MLB playoffs are rolling along!
After the wild-card round ended with a trio of Game 3s, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.
Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Series outlooks | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET
Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | NYY | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Yankees (47.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.0% | ESPN BET Odds: +750
Team temperature: 91°
Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers (51.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +550
Team temperature: 88°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Red Sox in three games
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (52.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +475
Team temperature: 115°
Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Guardians in three games
ALDS opponent: Mariners (48.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 7.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1200
Team temperature: 57°
Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Mariners if they have to face him twice in a five-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: Cubs (56.2% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +750
Team temperature: 67°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (49.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +475
Team temperature: 90°
Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday and played in Sunday’s season finale. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs
Wild-card result: Defeated Reds in two games
NLDS opponent: Phillies (50.2 chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +375
Team temperature: 113°
Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott‘s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — in Game 1 of the division series against the Phillies — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Padres in three games
NLDS opponent: Brewers (43.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +800
Team temperature: 87°
Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle
The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.
L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.
What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?
ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.
Key links: Mega-preview | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to a matchup:
NYY-TOR | CHC-MIL | DET-SEA | LAD-PHI
ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Upset forecast: (Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.
The analytical precept is that non-close games are more telling when it comes to team quality. The Yankees went 33-15 in games decided by five or more runs; the Blue Jays were 25-23. Finally, in terms of run differentials, the Blue Jays were the AL’s second-best home team, behind Texas. But the Yankees were the league’s best road team.
All of this is a long way of saying that Toronto has the higher seed and the home-field advantage, but it is not the favorite in this series.
Blue Jays concern level: Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle
New York Yankees
What has impressed you most about the Yankees this season?
Their power. The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs this season. The Dodgers were second with 244. New York had seven players hit at least 20. Anthony Volpe fell one short. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all-time sluggers, but Trent Grisham (34 homers), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), Cody Bellinger (29) and Ben Rice (26) give the Yankees the deepest power bank in the majors. Hitting the ball over the fence has proven key for postseason success in recent years. And the Yankees have been doing it better than everyone else all year.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?
It will continue against the Blue Jays because Blue Jays pitchers recorded the highest home run rate among postseason participants this year. Jose Berrios surrendered 25. Chris Bassitt gave up 22. Kevin Gausman yielded 21. Closer Jeff Hoffman gave up 15 — the second most in baseball among relievers. Bassitt is expected to be available for the ALDS after finishing the season on the injured list, but Berríos is unlikely to appear in the series. In October run-scoring environments, a mistake or two could make the difference.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The Yankees reached the World Series last year without Judge performing to his MVP-level expectations, causing a stir for another edition of his postseason struggles. But those Yankees had Juan Soto and a red-hot Stanton working their October magic. While the Yankees’ lineup is deeper than a year ago, Judge is the motor. And his career success against Toronto suggests he should have a huge series. Judge has a career .300/.420/.597 slash line with 41 home runs in 133 games against the Blue Jays. This year, he batted .325 with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS in 56 appearances across 13 games. He has crushed Gausman (1.283 OPS in 61 plate appearances), Berríos (1.195 OPS in 44 plate appearances) and Bassitt (.935 OPS in 28 plate appearances) over his career. This, on paper, is an ideal matchup for a two-time AL MVP looking to exorcise October postseason demons. — Castillo
Toronto Blue Jays
What carried the Blue Jays to an October bye?
A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.
Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Yankees?
It won’t continue against the Yankees because stringing together hits in October, when the pitching rises to another level, is difficult. The Blue Jays tied for 11th in the majors with 191 home runs during the regular season — a solid output with George Springer (32) leading the way followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23), Addison Barger (21) and Daulton Varsho (20). But that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees blasted 274 homers — 30 more than the second-ranked Dodgers. New York had seven players club at least 20 — and Anthony Volpe fell one short. Power plays in October, and the Yankees have the substantial edge.
Which one player must deliver to put Toronto in the ALCS?
The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo
NLDS: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Upset forecast: (Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.
This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.
Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.
Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle
Chicago Cubs
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.
The Cubs’ bullpen? It wasn’t really generating a lot of hype.
This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)
Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?
Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.
Which one player must deliver for them to keep their run going?
The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki‘s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.
Given that Tucker is playing through some injury issues and Crow-Armstrong has struggled to make adjustments after his big first half, the Cubs need Suzuki to deliver and he did that with a big home run in Game 1 against the Padres. — Schoenfield
Milwaukee Brewers
What carried the Brewers to an October bye?
Pitching, defense, speed and timely hitting. Only the Rangers and Padres allowed fewer runs than the Brewers as Milwaukee had a good balance between starting pitching (third in the majors in ERA) and bullpen (sixth in ERA). The Brewers ranked first in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric and second in the majors with a .279 average with runners in scoring position — two keys to them finishing third in runs scored despite ranking just 22nd in home runs.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Cubs?
The Brewers weren’t a popular pick to reach the World Series precisely because many believe this formula won’t work as well in the postseason as it did in the regular season. Maybe that’s unfair, but the numbers are clear: You have to hit more home runs than your opponents to win in October. That can still happen for Milwaukee, but the Brewers will likely need some non-home run hitters to step up with some power.
The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.
Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?
Brice Turang could be the guy who proves a surprising source of power. He finished with a solid 18 home runs, but was even better in the second half when he hit .308/.380/.536 with 12 home runs in 63 games. As the production increased, manager Pat Murphy moved Turang into a middle-of-the-order spot in the lineup more often down the stretch. On the other hand, Turang also hit just one home run in his final 23 games. — Schoenfield
ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Upset forecast: (Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.
Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle
Detroit Tigers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.
Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?
Why will/won’t it continue against the Mariners?
Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.
So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.
Which one player must deliver for them to pull off the upset?
Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield
Seattle Mariners
What carried the Mariners to an October bye?
We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.
Seattle led the majors in runs scored, home runs and wRC+ in September. They were second in OPS and wOBA. Combined with that potent pitching staff, the Mariners ripped off 11 straight wins and 17 wins in 18 games to comfortably reach the postseason with a bye — and emerge as a trendy pick to reach the World Series.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Tigers?
It will continue against the Tigers because even Skubal struggled to handle the Mariners in their two meetings during the regular season. Skubal didn’t complete six innings in either start, tossing 5⅔ innings in Seattle on April 2 and five innings at home on July 11. He combined to allow seven runs on 10 hits. October is another beast, of course, and Skubal is coming off a historic performance in Cleveland. Even if he is dominant, the Tigers’ pitching staff faces a steep challenge. If he’s not, the Tigers’ chances to advance are very slim.
Which one player must deliver to put Seattle in the ALCS?
Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo
NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.
This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.
Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle
Los Angeles Dodgers
What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?
The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1 this postseason, watch out.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?
The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.
After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.
Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?
This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. But there is hope Roki Sasaki can be a part of the answer after his strong showing in Game 2 against the Reds. — Schoenfield
Philadelphia Phillies
What carried the Phillies to an October bye?
The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.
Will it continue against the Dodgers?
Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14⅓ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.
As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.
Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?
Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield
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Jorge Castillo
TORONTO — The New York Yankees touched down in Canada early Friday with some bulletin board material ahead of their American League Division Series showdown against the Toronto Blue Jays.
“Contrary to some thoughts up here, we’re a really good team,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in a news conference Friday.
Boone was referring to a pointed critique that Blue Jays television color analyst and former major leaguer Buck Martinez offered on the Yankees during a game between the Blue Jays and Houston Astros on Sept 9.
The Yankees had taken two of three games from the Blue Jays the previous weekend, but Martinez was unimpressed.
“The Yankees, they’re not a good team,” Martinez said. “I don’t care what their record is.”
The Yankees went 5-8 against the Blue Jays in the regular season and just 1-6 in Toronto. The head-to-head series proved significant when both clubs finished tied atop the AL East with 94 wins, and the Blue Jays won the division because of the season-series tiebreaker.
“I know Buck had some thoughts,” Boone later added. “That’s all I was responding to. He’s wrong. But it doesn’t matter. We’ve got to go play, and we’ve got to go perform, as everyone does this time of year. We feel really good about our team. We’re playing well. All that’s in the past now. We’ve got to play well moving forward.”
The first move for both clubs was deciding their starting pitcher for Game 1 on Saturday. The Blue Jays chose veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman. The Yankees picked Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, over Will Warren, who will be available out of the bullpen.
Boone said Max Fried will start Game 2 on Sunday.
Gil and Gausman last started in their clubs’ regular-season finales Sept. 28.
Gausman, 34, tallied a 3.59 ERA in 193 innings across 32 starts. He allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 22⅔ innings across four starts against the Yankees.
“He’s the same guy every single day,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “You don’t worry about him getting caught up in the noise and the stuff that goes with a Game 1.”
Gil, 27, missed the first four months of the season because of a lat injury before recording a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts. He faced Toronto on Sept. 9, holding the Blue Jays to one run on three hits over six innings.
“Just feel like he’s ready for this,” Boone said. “He’s in line for it. Decided we want to keep Warren an option in the pen, and we feel like Luis is ready to go.”
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