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We’ve inched past the quarter mark of the 2025 MLB season and, in many ways, the season has gone as expected: The American League looks to have a crowded playoff race, the Los Angeles Dodgers are good even with a slew of pitching injuries, contending National League teams are living up to expectations and we have some awful squads at the bottom of the overall standings.

That doesn’t leave a lot of room for surprises, but let’s look at five clubs that began the season with projected playoff odds of less than 50%, according to ESPN reporter Bradford Doolittle’s initial preseason projections, and have so far exceeded those predictions.

Which of these teams are for real and which might be early-season flukes? We’ll start with a red-hot AL team that has dominated the first two months — and no, it’s not the New York Yankees.

(All stats through Sunday.)


Preseason playoff odds: 41.2%

Key stat: Last season, the Tigers hit 162 home runs in 162 games. This season, they hit 60 in their first 47 games, a pace of 207. The team OBP has improved from .300 (29th in the majors) to .333 (sixth). As a result, Detroit has increased its runs per game from 4.21 to 5.38.

Hot start: Former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize both scuffled in 2024, with Torkelson finding himself demoted to Triple-A at one point and finishing with 10 home runs and 0.3 WAR, and Mize going 2-6 with a 4.49 ERA and 0.2 WAR. Torkelson already has 12 home runs and ranks among MLB’s best in RBIs, while Mize is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA.

Can he keep it going? Javier Baez was so bad in 2023 and 2024 that he likely would have been let go if he didn’t still have three seasons left on his contract. However, not only is he hitting .291/.326/.485 in 2025, but he has moved to center field with Parker Meadows injured and looks like a natural out there.

Area of concern: Third base? Starting pitching depth? Really, the Tigers have shown no obvious weakness so far. Once Meadows returns, Baez can always move to third base if needed, keeping Zach McKinstry in a utility role. Sawyer Gipson-Long has started a rehab assignment, and the Double-A rotation is stacked if help is eventually needed in the rotation.

The question at this point isn’t if the Tigers are for real, but rather if they have a chance to be the best team in Tigers history. The 1984 team holds the club record with 104 wins and had that famous 35-5 start on its way to a World Series title. The 2025 Tigers are on pace for 107 wins after 47 games. They’ve been extremely well-rounded with a surprisingly deep lineup, solid defense, Tarik Skubal leading a good rotation and a bullpen picking up where it left off from last year’s out-of-nowhere trip to the postseason. Detroit has done all this with Matt Vierling and Meadows — who were second and third among position players a year ago in WAR — injured so far this season.

Mize has been a nice surprise as well, walking just nine batters in seven starts, and he should remain effective if he keeps doing that. With Skubal leading the way, the Tigers rank second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in strikeout rate among starting pitchers. The bullpen isn’t quite as dominant in that department (17th in the majors), but that’s also the easiest area to add to at the trade deadline if necessary.

If you want to nitpick, you could point to the lack of one consistent closer, as changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle, Will Vest and Brant Hurter have split duties with 12 saves between them. It’s unconventional, but all three have been effective, and manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter have certainly shown over the past two seasons they know how to work a bullpen. While some of the Tigers’ hitters can be expected to regress — Baez, in particular — getting Vierling and Meadows back will give Hinch all kinds of lineup flexibility to maximize matchups.

This probably isn’t a 107-win team or even a 104-win team, but this could be Detroit’s first 95-win team since 2011.

Verdict: Real


Preseason playoff odds: 33.9%

Key stat: The Cardinals went 12-1 from May 4 to 17, posting a 2.33 ERA and throwing three shutouts in that stretch. The rotation ranks a solid eighth in the majors with a 3.64 ERA — although just 25th in strikeout rate.

Hot start: Brendan Donovan is hitting .330/.387/.466 with 15 doubles. Ivan Herrera missed a month with a bone bruise in his knee but is hitting .429 in 15 games with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases.

Can he keep it going? Matthew Liberatore pitched primarily out of the bullpen in 2024, but the 25-year-old lefty has moved into the rotation and is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and an impressive 47-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Area of concern: Former top prospect Jordan Walker was up and down between the Cardinals and Triple-A last year, struggling while in the big leagues with a .201 average. Given another opportunity at regular duty, he’s off to a slow start, hitting .189 with 44 strikeouts in 145 plate appearances.

The Cardinals dropped to 14-19 in early May and looked kind of like what everyone expected: not very interesting and not very likely to be a factor in the NL Central race. Then came that hot streak, and while it included sweeps of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, it also included series wins over the Phillies, New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. Indeed, there’s nothing fluky in the team’s overall win-loss record, with a plus-38 run differential — heck, St. Louis is even 0-4 in extra-inning games to drag the record down a bit.

The number that jumps out, however, is the strikeout rate from the rotation. Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are all averaging fewer than 6.0 K’s per nine, and it’s difficult to remain successful in this baseball era with strikeout rates that low. Of 116 pitchers with at least 40 innings, that trio ranks 105th, 106th and 111th in strikeout rate and has also combined for a 3.77 ERA. Add in Liberatore and Sonny Gray, and that’s a rotation that could make the playoffs — if they can keep it going. I’m skeptical, although Pallante in particular is an extreme ground ball pitcher and has great infield defense behind him with Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado and Donovan.

The offense feels a bit more like the real deal, even as Walker and Nolan Gorman struggle. Victor Scott II has been much better after being overmatched in the majors a year ago, and Winn has a .349 OBP after looking lost in spring training, when he went 4-for-50. If Scott and Winn can provide decent enough offense to go with their defense, it makes the lineup a little deeper and helps make up for the team’s overall lack of power.

In the end, those are two things that pop out: the lack of strikeouts from the starting pitchers and the offense having not quite enough power. There is potential here to surprise and battle the Chicago Cubs for the division, but for now, I’m not completely sold.

Verdict: Not real


Preseason playoff odds: 24.6%

Key stat: Relievers Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Erik Miller are a combined 10-2 with a 1.27 ERA in 78 innings while holding batters to a .164 average.

Hot start: Logan Webb looks better than ever with a 2.42 ERA, just two home runs allowed and a career-high 27.4% strikeout rate.

Can he keep it going? Wilmer Flores has 10 home runs and leads the majors with 42 RBIs, even though his overall batting line doesn’t pop out at .258/.324/.454. He has hit .395 with runners in scoring position, and his home runs include one grand slam and three with two runners on.

Area of concern: Jordan Hicks just got removed from the rotation with a 6.55 ERA and Justin Verlander remains winless in nine starts. Giants first basemen are hitting .189 with just four home runs and their catchers rank next to last in OPS in the majors (although defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey isn’t going anywhere).

Maybe the most impressive aspect of the Giants’ start is that they’re winning even though the entire team hasn’t necessarily clicked on all cylinders. Besides the concerns listed above, Willy Adames got off to a slow start and closer Ryan Walker has had a couple of hiccups. The bullpen has otherwise been dominant, however, and could get even better with the hard-throwing Hicks moving back there with Hayden Birdsong getting a shot in the rotation.

Can San Francisco keep it going? It’s worth noting the Giants haven’t played the Dodgers yet and went 0-2 against the San Diego Padres and 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their lone series against those other NL West rivals. Flores probably isn’t going to finish with 145 RBIs — the pace he’s currently on. Indeed, the entire lineup has hit especially well with runners in scoring position, ranking third in OPS behind the Dodgers and Cubs (but ranking just 15th in overall OPS).

The Giants need to get Adames going on a consistent basis and need to get more from first base, but the bullpen has a chance to be special, with Rodriguez emerging as a top setup guy and Doval pitching well again after struggling with his command last year. For now, I’m a believer. Let’s see what happens with that first series against the Dodgers in June.

Verdict: Real


Preseason playoff odds: 19%

Key stat: Based on their underlying statistics, the Guardians would be an expected 19-27, not 25-21. Most of the “clutch” performance has come on the pitching side, where they’ve allowed 4.39 runs per game against an expected total of 4.80 runs per game.

Hot start: Hunter Gaddis is showing last year’s 1.78 ERA was no fluke as he has a 1.00 ERA through 18 innings with 26 strikeouts. The only two runs he allowed both came on solo home runs.

Can he keep it going? Kyle Manzardo is hitting .221 with a .309 OBP but has 10 home runs and is slugging .493. That puts him on pace to hit 35 home runs — essentially replacing the power production of the traded Josh Naylor.

Area of concern: The rotation ranks 21st in the majors in ERA, 19th in strikeout rate, 24th in innings and 25th in OPS allowed. Cleveland isn’t getting any offense from shortstop with Brayan Rocchio hitting .165, and his defensive metrics haven’t been as impressive as they were in 2024 (although they’re still average overall).

Even though they won 92 games and reached the American League Championship Series last season, the preseason prognostications weren’t high on the Guardians, with concerns about the starting rotation plus factoring in some regression from the historic performance of last year’s bullpen. Emmanuel Clase had some early bumps, but the bullpen has been solid overall, ranking fifth in the majors in win probability added. The rotation, no surprise, hasn’t dominated, especially with Tanner Bibee seeing dips in his numbers across the board (his strikeout rate, in particular, has dropped from 26.3% to 16.4%, a huge year-to-year decrease).

You can see where this is headed: The Guardians are fortunate to be four games over .500. The offense, even with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, probably isn’t good enough to overcome a shaky rotation over the long haul of a 162-game season. Additionally, with Andres Gimenez in Toronto and Rocchio’s defense not as good early on, the defense hasn’t been nearly as impressive as it was last season — the team batting average allowed on balls in play has jumped from .277 to .313.

Still, at least Cleveland has put itself in a contending position. The rotation had been healthy, with the top five guys starting 44 of the team’s 46 games, until Ben Lively went on the injured list last week with a forearm strain. Slade Cecconi had a strong start filling in for Lively, so he now becomes a huge key. And maybe the Guardians will get Shane Bieber back at some point.

In the meantime, they’ll be tested over the next month, with series against the Minnesota Twins, Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Giants. If they can survive this stretch, we’ve learned to never count out the Guardians, but for now, it feels like they’ve overachieved.

Verdict: Not real


Preseason playoff odds: 8.4%

Key stat: The A’s were just one game out of first place in the AL West after beating Seattle on May 5, but then they went 2-9 against the Mariners, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants to fall under .500.

Hot start: Jacob Wilson is hitting .337/.369/.478 with just 10 strikeouts in 188 plate appearances.

Can he keep it going? In Tyler Soderstrom‘s case, maybe not. He was hitting .315 with nine home runs through his first 19 games but hit .243 with just one home run in his next 28 games.

Area of concern: The A’s have a lack of front-line pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. In going 6-10 to start May, they posted a 6.13 ERA, including six games in which they allowed at least nine runs. The team’s defense isn’t helping — it ranks last in the majors in defensive runs saved.

The Athletics looked a lot more like a viable playoff contender 10 days ago but struggled in this brutal stretch against winning teams, losing four consecutive series. Indeed, the A’s are 7-12 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s an indicator that they might not stay relevant for the duration of the season.

On the other hand: It’s possible no team runs away with the AL West. The Mariners have three starting pitchers on the IL, stressing a pitching staff that’s already without much depth, while the Texas Rangers and Astros have both scuffled to score runs at times. One little winning streak and the A’s can climb right back into it.

Two keys: Lawrence Butler and Nick Kurtz. Butler was on my breakout list after hitting .302/.346/.597 over the final three months last season, but he’s hitting .227/.292/.386 in 2025 with a lot of swing-and-miss (he was in the 37th percentile last season in whiff rate but has dropped to the eighth percentile). Kurtz looked ready for the majors after ripping up Triple-A to begin the season, but he has been overmatched so far, hitting .219 with one home run and 30 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances. He’s going to have to improve the contact rate, or a demotion back to the minors might be forthcoming.

This is still a fun up-and-coming team. Wilson looks like a hitter who will contend for batting titles year after year with his ability to put the ball in play. I still believe in Butler and Kurtz. But the A’s rank 26th in rotation ERA and 28th in bullpen ERA. Some of that is Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, but they’re also still 20th in road ERA. They probably don’t have the pitching to stay close all season, even in a mediocre AL West.

Verdict: Not real

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Garrett Nussmeier’s final season at LSU is a family affair

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Garrett Nussmeier's final season at LSU is a family affair

BATON ROUGE, La. — Doug Nussmeier rarely gets days like this one anymore, hanging around a college football field, watching his sons Garrett and Colton soft toss the ball to each other. Garrett has been at LSU, trying to lead the Tigers on a title run. Colton has been in Texas, where he has developed into an ESPN Junior 300 prospect as one of the top quarterbacks in the country, with offers from LSU, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and many others.

Doug has been in the NFL as an assistant coach, living apart from his family the past two years so Colton could finish out his high school career.

But on this day in June, they are all together at the LSU elite summer camp. Doug Nussmeier smiles big. He decided to leave the Philadelphia Eagles and take the offensive coordinator job with the Saints earlier this year. Now, all he needs to do to visit his older son is hop in his car and drive for an hour or so.

The family calls this a “full circle moment.”

Doug started his NFL career as a quarterback with the Saints in New Orleans. He met his wife, Christi, in New Orleans. He won a Super Bowl in the Superdome. Christi, a Louisiana native, instilled a love for her home state in her kids, a love that not only led Garrett to LSU but kept him there for five years. Now here they are, Doug, Garrett and Colton, all back in Louisiana on a swampy hot summer day.

Doug stands off to the side, watching, not coaching. Though he played quarterback, he never put pressure on his sons to play the position. But they wanted to be just like him. His No. 13 jersey and all.

“He was my idol growing up,” Garrett says. “He’s the most influential person in my career.”

Through backyard drills and days spent breaking down tape, through 12 moves to follow Doug on his coaching journey, Garrett soaked up knowledge, learned how to deal with change as a constant, spent time on different campuses, in different stadiums — every moment leading to the one he faces now in his fifth and final season with the Tigers. His mother inspired his love for LSU and his dad inspired his obsession with the quarterback position.

They both led him here, to the biggest year of his life.


CHRISTI NUSSMEIER WOULD have been perfectly happy if her sons hadn’t become quarterbacks. But looking back, it does seem like they were always on the path to running an offense. When Christi says her sons were born with a football in their hands, she means it almost literally. After Garrett was born in 2002, she chose a Sports Illustrated-themed birth announcement. In the photo, Garrett snuggles a football.

Garrett’s earliest football memories start at age 6, when he asked his dad to throw with him in their backyard in Seattle. The warmup Doug showed him is the one Garrett still uses before every practice and game, focusing on flexibility first before moving into segments that isolate different parts of the throwing motion.

At every college stop they made, Garrett observed the quarterbacks: Drew Stanton at Michigan State, Jake Locker at Washington, A.J. McCarron at Alabama. Garrett saw the way each player led his team not only in games but at practices. He watched the way they interacted with their teammates. He sometimes sat in the room with them to break down tape.

“I was subconsciously just learning things without actually knowing what I was learning,” Garrett says. “As I got older, I started to realize, ‘Hey, OK, that’s what they were doing.'”

From there, Garrett steadily improved and kept his eyes focused on getting a college scholarship, then eventually playing in the NFL. Garrett was smaller for a quarterback at 6-foot-1, and his parents had no idea where he might end up. But they encouraged him to keep pushing forward, and Doug provided feedback whenever Garrett asked.

“I was hoping that as he started to grow into his middle school years, maybe he’ll be good enough to be a starter on his high school team. And then if he’s that, well, then maybe that opens the door for him to have the opportunity to play at a small school or someplace,” Doug says.

Doug had taken an assistant coaching job with the Cowboys in 2018, so the Nussmeiers moved to the Dallas area, where Garrett would play high school football. Christi remembers one moment early in Garrett’s high school career that changed everything.

“Garrett made some moves, and I just remember my face going, ‘Oh my gosh,’ and I looked at Doug. We both looked at each other,” Christi says. “We knew Garrett was talented, and we knew he was special, but I asked Doug, ‘That’s not normal, is it?’ And Doug said, ‘No.'”

Adds Doug: “He wasn’t the biggest guy, but all of a sudden, some schools started coming to see him.”

Ole Miss was the first to invite him to a football camp, then LSU invited him to campus, too. LSU held a special place in his heart. Garrett was born in Lake Charles, Louisiana, where Christi grew up.

Christi was determined to give her three children — including daughter, Ashlynn, also an LSU student — a place they could call home, considering all the moving they did. They may have changed addresses every few years, but they would always return to Lake Charles for the holidays and summers. Christi cooked specialties from home and played zydeco music. When people asked the kids where they were from, they would answer, “Louisiana.”

“Lake Charles was the only place that was constant my life,” Garrett says. “When you only live somewhere at the longest three years, you’re just spinning around, and so Louisiana was just always my home. When I came on my first visit here, I just knew this is where I want to be.”

Garrett loved then-coach Ed Orgeron, but he really wanted to play for then-offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. He committed in 2020 as a junior. Ensminger announced his retirement later that year, but Garrett signed in 2021 anyway, as an ESPN 300 prospect and one of the top quarterbacks in the nation.

Garrett played in four games and ultimately redshirted, but midway through that freshman season, LSU announced Orgeron would not return for 2022. For months, Garrett felt uncertainty about his future and the future of the program.

Enter Brian Kelly.


ON JAN. 7, 2013, Garrett Nussmeier and Brian Kelly shared a football field for the first time. Doug was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Alabama when the Crimson Tide played Kelly and Notre Dame in the BCS national championship game in South Florida.

Garrett, who was 10 at the time, remembers falling asleep at halftime with Alabama up 28-0. But he also remembers heading down to the field after the 42-14 victory, throwing confetti and holding the championship trophy. During a quarterback meeting their first year together, Garrett decided to have some fun. He turned to Kelly and asked, “Remember that national championship?” They had a good laugh.

But the transition to playing under Kelly wasn’t so easy.

Nussmeier thought that after his first year at LSU, he was going to be the guy at quarterback. But Kelly went into the transfer portal and brought in Jayden Daniels, who ultimately won the starting job in 2022.

“Things were a little rocky at first,” Garrett Nussmeier admits. “But as time has gone on, my relationship with Coach Kelly has just grown.”

Nussmeier had opportunities to leave through the transfer portal, especially after serving as the backup to Daniels in 2022 and 2023. But he knew what it was like to leave a place, having done it so much growing up. He knew how hard it was to start over, make new friends, go through proving himself all over again.

He watched his dad preach patience throughout his own coaching career. Maybe more than anything, Garrett felt an unwavering loyalty to the state of Louisiana and desperately wanted to bring a championship to the place he calls home.

“I just didn’t feel like my time here was done,” Nussmeier says.

“He came in built for an old-school mentality of ‘I’m going to stick it out. I’m going to work my tail off and get that opportunity,'” Kelly says. “He saw some things that we were doing in developing Jayden and getting him to be a better version of himself. He grew up loving LSU. If you add all of those things up, it wasn’t about just throwing some money at him. It had to be more than that. He is a guy that loves transformational relationships instead of transactional.”

Garrett finally got his opportunity to start last season, opening with a 300-yard passing day in a last-second loss to USC. LSU rolled to a 6-1 start, but the next three games proved to be the most humbling stretch of his career. The Tigers dropped all three — to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida — as Nussmeier struggled to play consistently and avoid mistakes. In those three losses, he threw for five combined touchdowns and five interceptions, lost two fumbles and took 11 sacks, including a whopping seven against the Gators.

“There was a part of me that was doing too much and trying to be perfect instead of just playing football,” Nussmeier says. “There was a lot of overthinking, a lot of trying to make things happen when I didn’t need to. That was one of the biggest learning moments for me in my career.”

Indeed, both Kelly and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan say Nussmeier had to go through those moments to learn and grow. Kelly called the losses a “low point” in decision-making and managing the game.

“A lot of playing quarterback is developing some calluses, and he was able to develop some calluses, and he knows what the fire feels like,” Sloan says.

At 6-4, with a once promising season on the verge of disaster, LSU hosted Vanderbilt at home in late November. “That was a big moment for me,” Nussmeier says.

Before the game, he took a deep breath and told himself to forget about being perfect. LSU won its final three games, including a 44-31 victory over Baylor in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl. Nussmeier threw for 313 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, a game Kelly described as his best of the season.

“He didn’t take the big play as being the only play,” Kelly says. “He started to figure out that zero was OK. Once he felt that zero is OK, and I don’t have to make a play each and every down, the offense played very well.”

Doug would watch nearly every game alone in a hotel room as he prepared his own game plans for the Eagles. Sometimes he would watch on TV, sometimes on an iPad. He made sure never to overstep or question the coaching Nussmeier was getting from Kelly and Sloan.

“They have a plan, and they are working diligently to improve the things that need to be improved and strengthen the things that need to be strengthened,” Doug says.

LSU ended the season 9-4. Nussmeier had already announced he would be back for a fifth and final season. He asked his dad to handle his NIL negotiations.


WHEN BAUER SHARP came to LSU on his official visit, he went to dinner with Nussmeier and linebacker Whit Weeks. Nussmeier, Sharp says, was instrumental in helping him decide to transfer from Oklahoma to LSU.

Indeed, Nussmeier took an active role in helping LSU revamp its roster through the portal, understanding that both he and the program had championship aspirations for 2025. In addition to Sharp, LSU signed two top five wide receivers (Barion Brown and Nic Anderson) and revamped a defense that has struggled at times.

The presence of a veteran quarterback, going into his second year as a starter, proved to be a huge selling point, too.

“With him being in the offense for four years, that played a huge part in it, and just to see what type of leadership he had, and to connect with him, that was so inviting,” Sharp says. “It was so encouraging. I loved what I saw.”

Nussmeier is the rare quarterback who has stayed put. Of the Top 20 quarterbacks who signed in 2021, 14 ended up transferring. Seven are playing their fifth seasons in 2025. Of those seven, only Nussmeier and Behren Morton at Texas Tech are still playing for the teams with which they originally signed. To Garrett, the decision to play one more year was not complicated.

“When you look at the statistics of quarterbacks getting drafted high, a lot of them were fifth years,” Garrett says. “That experience matters for my position. So I think there’s a lot of value in staying.”

Kelly points to stats, too, and the way his quarterbacks play better in their final season as his starter. Daniels is the perfect example. In Year 1 under Kelly, Daniels threw for 2,913 yards and 17 touchdowns. In Year 2, Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns, en route to winning the Heisman Trophy.

“I really believe experience at that position is the most important thing,” Kelly says. “Wherever I’ve been, your last year is your best year, so the expectations are that the same will occur for Garrett.”

Indeed, early Heisman odds have Nussmeier second, right behind Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Nussmeier also is ranked as one of the top quarterback prospects for the NFL draft next season. (ESPN’s Matt Miller has him going No. 11 .)

“I definitely think he’s capable of winning a Heisman, but that trophy is based off a season,” Sloan says. “He has the talent, and we have the people around him. I just know this. He’s who we would want to be a quarterback at LSU. If we got to draft, we’d pick Garrett Nussmeier.”

Nussmeier worked this offseason to put himself in position to win a title, dropping a few pounds, adding muscle mass and working with private speed coaches in Dallas. Sloan says Nussmeier is in the best shape of his life, and that will allow him to help more in the run game. Managing the pocket, speeding up the process at the line of scrimmage and his footwork also have been a huge point of emphasis this offseason.

“When his feet are on time, and staying what I call tight and he’s not having big movements, he’s extremely accurate, and especially more and more accurate down the field,” Sloan says.

He also took more ownership of the team.

“He’s a whole different person, the way he carries himself, the way he speaks to others,” running back Caden Durham said. “We see his energy in the morning, 7 o’clock for workouts. Everybody is like, ‘We’re going to go as hard as you and even harder,’ just because he’s the leader. He’s the head honcho. This offense runs through him. So let’s go.”

Nothing about what is ahead will come as a shock. Walking into SEC stadiums with his dad prepared him for big crowds, big moments. Memories often trickle back. The first time taking the field at Baton Rouge in 2020, closing his eyes, remembering what it felt like to be inside a roaring, sold-out Death Valley. When he walked onto the field at Auburn in 2022, he turned to Sloan and Daniels, pointed to the sideline near the away team tunnel and said, “That’s where I was crying when the Kick Six happened,” remembering back to the 2013 Iron Bowl when his dad was an Alabama assistant.

The Nussmeiers call all of these moments “God winks,” each one intertwined, interconnected, preparing Garrett for the moment he has waited on since he first threw a football in the backyard with his dad.

Now with Doug just a drive away in Louisiana, the place Garrett loves more than anything, they are closer than they have been since they lived under one roof in Dallas. Christi will be able to make her way to LSU and Saints home games. Ashlynn will be there. Colton may make a trip or two depending on his schedule.

There is, of course, one way for this full circle moment to be complete: hoisting a championship trophy.

“I’ve always wanted this pressure. I’ve always wanted this expectation. I’ve always wanted people to talk about me the way that they are and have this expectation,” Nussmeier said. “It’s definitely a dream come true.

“But it’s not finished yet.”

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Gurriel makes history with HR off 103.9 mph pitch

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Gurriel makes history with HR off 103.9 mph pitch

PHOENIX — San Diego Padres reliever Mason Miller was bringing the heat on Tuesday night.

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. returned the favor.

Gurriel crushed a 103.9 mph fastball from Miller into the left-field seats for a two-run homer in the eighth inning, tying the game at 5-all. It was the hardest hit pitch for a homer since MLB started pitch tracking in 2008.

It was part of a two-homer night for Gurriel. The veteran also hit a two-run shot in the first inning.

The hard-throwing Miller was acquired from the Athletics at last week’s trade deadline. He routinely throws over 100 mph and hit 104.2 mph with his hardest pitch on Tuesday night.

Luis Arráez hit a go-ahead single in the 11th inning and the Padres tacked on four more runs to beat the Diamondbacks 10-5.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Sasaki taking next step in rehab: No shoulder pain

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Sasaki taking next step in rehab: No shoulder pain

LOS ANGELES — Roki Sasaki, finally ramping up after spending the past three months on the injured list, said Tuesday he had “no pain” in his right shoulder and expressed confidence in his ability to regain fastball velocity, which began to tail off before he was shut down.

“I feel better about being able to throw harder, especially because I’m completely pain free,” Sasaki said through an interpreter. “With that being said, I do have to just face live hitters and see how my mechanics, you know, hold. Just being consistent; being able to do that consistently.”

Sasaki is scheduled to pitch three simulated innings at Dodger Stadium over the weekend before going on a rehab assignment. The Dodgers will stretch Sasaki back out as a starting pitcher. How he eventually fits in, though, remains to be seen.

The Dodgers’ rotation is currently full, with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow back healthy, Shohei Ohtani stretched out to at least four innings, and Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Emmet Sheehan making up the other three spots of a six-man rotation.

Asked if he could eventually see Sasaki occupying a bullpen spot, specifically in October, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said: “I’m going to hold on that one. I do know we’re going to take the 13 best pitchers. I’ve been a part of many postseason rosters, so we’re going to take the 13 best pitchers. If Roki is a part of that in some capacity, then that would be great. And if he’s not, then he won’t be.”

Before that is even entertained, Sasaki simply has to perform better.

The 23-year-old right-hander arrived in the major leagues after being one of the most hyped pitchers to come out of Japan, armed with a triple-digit fastball and a mind-bending splitter. But evaluators throughout the industry also acknowledged he still needed more seasoning. That wound up being the case early, even more so than many anticipated.

Through his first eight starts, before landing on the IL with what the Dodgers described as a shoulder impingement, Sasaki posted a 4.72 ERA and failed to complete six innings on seven occasions. In a stretch of 34⅓ innings, he walked almost as many batters (22) as he struck out (24). The four-seam fastball, which often lacked command, fell into the mid-90s over his last handful of outings. Often, the splitter functioned as his only legitimate major league pitch.

Sasaki acknowledged that “American hitters have a different approach at the plate compared to Japanese hitters.”

“I can’t really attack the same way that I used to in Japan,” he added.

With that in mind, Sasaki has begun to experiment with a two-seam fastball, a pitch that runs in on opposing right-handed hitters and is designed to generate early contact, ideally ground balls. The hope is that it eventually functions as a second fastball to pair with his splitter and slider.

The focus at this point, though, is on nailing down the mechanics of his delivery so that his shoulder no longer becomes an issue. Sasaki said he now has “a better understanding a second time through on where the pain came from and how to make sure that the pain doesn’t come back.” His mechanics are “not 100 percent right now,” Sasaki added, “but I think it’s in the right direction.”

When he returns, Sasaki will have to prove he belongs.

“My every intention is to get back on the major league mound and pitch again,” he said. “With that being said, you know … I do need to fight for the opportunity, too. I don’t think that I’ll just be given the opportunity right away.”

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