The 2025 offseason includes a thin group of high-level free agents with an exploding salary cap atmosphere, meaning Brian Burke’s “the biggest mistakes get made on July 1” credo is likely to be truer than ever.

This year, the free agent generating the most attention is Mitch Marner. There’s a significant gap behind him to Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser and Aaron Ekblad. It’s a stark contrast to July 1, 2026, when it’s possible that Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor and John Carlson may be all available. Some (if not all) may extend with their current clubs, but the list of potentially available players a year from now should make GMs think twice before signing a bloated contract on July 1, 2025.

The supply of valuable players in 2025 is short, meaning it is highly likely for overpayments on contracts to occur. To win the Stanley Cup, teams need players to overperform their contracts and avoid inefficient contracts of any kind. There is merit to the tax-free state teams having advantage, but many of the top players overperform the delta between their contract value and the “tax-free” discount.

As an example, Sam Reinhart likely would have garnered a $10 million average annual value on the open market, while taking $8.625 million to remain with the Florida Panthers. Reinhart’s value according to my model is closer to $12.6 million, meaning Florida is getting an extra $2.6 million in value on top of the “tax discount.” Similar situations exist for Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.

In non-tax-free states, elite players like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis and Nico Hischier are overperforming their contracts. Perhaps the best example is in Edmonton where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman are significantly overperforming their contract values. Draisaitl’s mammoth contract is still expected to be efficient when it kicks in. For Evan Bouchard, any contract with an AAV below $9.5 million would be considered efficient.

According to reports, Mitch Marner is expected to garner $14 million per year, while an efficient contract would be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player represented by Darren Ferris, is rumored to be seeking in the neighborhood of $9 million AAV. That would mean a player with a career high of 51 points would have a contract on par with an elite second-line center, while producing like a low-end second-liner or high-end third-liner. While there are legitimate arguments for Marner’s regular-season value and Bennett’s playoff value, any team hoping to contend can ill afford to pay those players 10% above their value.

Given Toronto’s cap structure, extending Marner is unlikely to result in long-term success, because it would be prohibitive to balancing the lineup. If Marner wants to play on a contending team and win, contract efficiency matters. If we apply the same efficiency of the upcoming Draisaitl contract, a comparable that Marner’s camp is using, anything more than $12 million would handicap a team’s ability to contend — and that is provided Marner performs to Draisaitl’s level in the playoffs, which has yet to occur. Marner would need to sign for around $10 million AAV to have a valuable contract similar to the likes of Reinhart, Kucherov and Kaprizov.

It has never been clearer that a major shakeup is needed in Toronto. While there were multiple nixed trades that would have allowed Toronto to make significant changes over the past few years, Toronto is left with the reality that a superstar caliber player will likely be lost for nothing. However, Toronto cannot afford to extend Marner on an inefficient contract, especially when playoff performances are considered. Here’s how they should proceed instead.

WITH THE CONTRACTS for Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Leafs have plenty of room to maneuver. They cannot replace the value of Marner with one player, but they can redistribute the wealth throughout the lineup.

Tavares is likely to extend in Toronto, and the rumored AAV is around $5 million, which is an efficient contract for a middle-six center, one who scored 38 goals in 2024-25. The Leafs should avoid doing a bridge deal for restricted free agent Matthew Knies, instead opting for a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $8.5 million AAV. Combined, that costs less than Marner’s ask, and the combined value of Knies and Tavares outweighs the value of Marner.

Toronto should expect Easton Cowan to contribute in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It is almost imperative that Toronto GM Brad Treliving trade two of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi and Nick Robertson. The cap space this frees up could be used to sign Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand or Pius Suter, all of whom provide significantly more value in elevated roles.

That set of restructures would allow Toronto to have three productive lines. The Panthers’ third line was the difference in the Leafs’ series loss, and that is because efficient contracts at the top of Florida’s roster allowed for a more balanced approach to the lineup.

Speaking of the Panthers, there are rumblings the Leafs have interest in Sam Bennett. While it is easy to understand why, let’s remember the player Bennett was before Florida. In Treliving’s prior role as Flames GM, he traded Bennett out of Calgary for spare parts because he was unable to find his game. Bennett is a perfect fit in Florida, though much of his value comes from the extracurricular activities, as opposed to offensive production. If those extracurricular activities were to be more heavily punished, they would lose their value.

Consider that Tavares notched 38 goals and 74 points this season and is likely to sign for around $5 million. Bennett notched a career high of 51 points this season. While Bennett is younger, signing him to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares’ until he is Tavares’ age — having produced 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 points per game over his career — would be catastrophic.

Florida is absolutely right to not want to pay more than $7 million per year for Bennett, which would already be slightly bloated. Given Florida’s success over the past few years, the Maple Leafs would be wise to follow those signals. A $7.5 million AAV is inefficient but manageable if the Leafs believe Bennett’s extracurriculars won’t draw more attention in a market where the hockey team is first, second and third in coverage. Should Bennett’s camp push further, the Leafs would be better off looking elsewhere. Targeting Pius Suter or Matt Duchene on July 1 — and orchestrating a trade for Mason Marchment with Dallas — in a theoretical example of more balanced approach.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH specific players are signed or added in trade, the Maple Leafs need to balance their forward depth and refrain from signing inefficient contracts. There are too many on the books, and the Leafs would do well to extricate themselves from a couple of them. The best teams don’t contend because of one or two players; that’s true even of the Oilers (though it certainly helps having McDavid and Draisaitl).

Instead, the best teams contend year after year because their best players outperform their contracts, and the depth in the lineup provides quality minutes due to management being able to acquire better players that provide balance. Current examples are Florida’s third line, along with Edmonton’s depth that includes Corey Perry, Jake Walman and Connor Brown. Because of the efficient contracts for Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, Dallas was able to acquire a superstar in Mikko Rantanen.

Toronto needs to be ruthless — the way that the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during their consecutive Stanley Cup runs and the way the Vegas Golden Knights have been for their entire existence.

If a player isn’t willing to sign for what the team needs to be successful, then they aren’t going to be a Leaf. Significant trade protection for anyone outside the top-six forwards or top-four defensemen needs to be a thing of the past. Eight- or 10-team no-trade clauses for third-line players is manageable, but the days of giving bottom-pair defenders and the likes of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Reaves any level of trade protection must end. They cannot handicap their ability to make moves by providing trade protection to players who are easily replaceable every summer.

For the Leafs to win, they need to stay focused in their pursuit of contract efficiency, and that likely means losing pure talent in the short-term to create a more balanced, long-term approach that has worked so well for other clubs.