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There’s no going back now. The College Football Playoff’s expanded 12-team format made its debut last season, reshaping the postseason as we knew it and showing just how brutal the path to a national championship can be. Add in a flurry of conference realignments (with the grueling travel schedules they created), the ever-increasing influence of the transfer portal and what might be the dawn of an entirely new financial model underpinning the sport, and college football could be changing faster — and more dramatically — than at any point in its history.

As part of our efforts to keep track of these seismic changes, we are relaunching our Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 season this week. Just to refresh our memories, the FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.

The preseason forecast features plenty of familiar teams at the top, but also plenty of candidates to crash the playoff party. Let’s begin our tour of the data by looking at the teams most likely to win the 2025 championship.

The top of the list is dominated by SEC teams — 11 of the top 19 hail from the conference, including the two most likely champions in Texas and Georgia (and three of the top four, if you include Alabama).

A year after Ohio State and the Big Ten won the first 12-team playoff title — with only three SEC squads making the field — the FPI model expects a nation-high 4.6 playoff teams to hail from the conference (nearly twice as many from any other) with a 61% chance that the SEC produces the eventual champion.


SEC and Big Ten remain on top

If not an SEC team, then the championship will probably go to another familiar power conference program, with a trio of Big Ten teams — Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon — checking in next on the odds list, a year after each went to the CFP quarterfinals (or beyond). A high share of returning production could also have coach Dabo Swinney and Clemson representing the ACC in the playoff again — perhaps making it past the the first round this time.

And if we’re looking for somewhat refreshed entries after down seasons, Auburn, Michigan and Oklahoma are all among the 17 most likely champions after each finished outside the top 25 in the FPI last season. All three made major moves in the offseason to spark their surges: Auburn brought in a top-10 transfer class headlined by former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold; Michigan brought in a big recruiting class and a few top transfers; and Oklahoma revamped its offensive core, with prized quarterback John Mateer at the helm — plus its returning production otherwise — helping vault the Sooners back into the national picture.


Playoff odds for the Group of 5

As always, the Group of 5 is also an important part of the playoff puzzle, in no small part because of its guaranteed spot in the bracket (reserved for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion). Here are the non-power conference teams with the highest chance to make the playoff in the FPI model.

Even after losing record-setting running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos remain the most likely Group of 5 team to make the playoff — though Tulane (despite losing quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes) and UNLV (coming off an 11-win season, though quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has moved on) aren’t far behind. With several contenders bunched together and no clear juggernaut, the G5 race for a playoff spot is something to keep a close eye on — including its ripple effects on the rest of the bracket.


Next, let’s look at the projected top units on each side of the ball in 2025, according to the FPI.

If we want another illustration of how dominant the best teams are, the top four projected offensive teams by the FPI — Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State — are also the top four projected defensive teams, with Alabama and Texas rising 10 spots apiece from 2024 on the offensive side.

That kind of balance on both sides of the ball is what separates this year’s top contenders from the pack, especially in a postseason format that requires versatility over three or four high-stakes playoff games. The rest of the top 20 on both sides also contain some of the biggest offseason movers in those unit rankings — such as Oregon (up 11 spots on defense), Florida (up 27 spots on offense), Clemson (up 14 spots on defense), South Carolina (up 24 spots on offense) and Texas A&M and Auburn (who are up double-digit spots on both sides).


Biggest risers and fallers

Speaking of those offseason changes, let’s look at the programs that have gained (or lost) the most ground overall in the FPI entering 2025.

FAU is projected to improve by at least 25 ranking slots on offense, defense and special teams after adding quite a few transfers — including ex-Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp — ahead of coach Zach Kittley’s first season in Boca Raton. Among power conference teams, Florida State is looking to bounce back from last season’s nightmare with the help of a great offseason in the portal, headlined by the addition of former USC wide receiver Duce Robinson, while ACC rival, Stanford, has the nation’s 13th-highest share of production returning for 2025.

At the other end, Army has lost roughly half of its production from last season’s impressive 12-2 team, including top rusher Kanye Udoh and sack leader Elo Modozie; the FPI predicts regression will hit the Knights hard.

And in terms of power teams who had competitive FPI ratings a year ago, Louisville is projected to drop from No. 12 to 41 after bidding farewell to quarterback Tyler Shough, wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks, starting offensive tackle Monroe Mills, sack leader Ashton Gillotte and each of its three leading defensive backs in interceptions. Similarly, Colorado sustained heavy offseason losses, and regression might also come for Indiana and Iowa State after a pair of outstanding 11-win seasons.

(Where did the top transfer portal teams land on the most improved list? In addition to FSU and Auburn, Nebraska is up 13 spots to No. 25, Texas Tech rose nine spots to No. 35 and Texas A&M was up seven slots to No. 8. But keep an eye on Ole Miss, which was among the more active portal teams but fell eight spots in the FPI rankings anyway without quarterback Jaxson Dart.)


Best matchups in 2025?

Finally, let’s close by circling the biggest matchups of the 2025 season on our college football calendars. According to the FPI’s projected ratings for both teams, these are the most anticipated games of the season — matchups in which each squad ranks highly, helping to create a high combined matchup quality on ESPN Analytics’ 0-100 scale:

We’ll get one of the best games of the season practically right away, with Week 1 providing Texas-Ohio State — a battle of top-four preseason FPI teams — on Saturday, Aug. 30. That same day, we’ll also get LSU-Clemson, and the next day, we’ll watch Notre Dame travel to Miami to face the Hurricanes in a top-10 FPI matchup.

That sets the tone for a regular season that will feature at least one matchup rated 90 or higher in the FPI matchup quality metric almost every week. But the best week by that metric — with three games rated 90 or higher and five rated 85 or higher — is Week 14, with Ohio State-Michigan, Auburn-Alabama and all of the other usual late-season rivalry games. In addition, three other weeks — Week 5, Week 7 and Week 10 — will carry five games each with a matchup rating of 85 or higher.

That’s a loaded calendar, and it reflects how the meaning of each college football Saturday is changing. Under the old system, one bad week could doom a contender. Now, teams can afford a stumble … but the trade-off is that they also need to prove themselves over more games against top-tier teams.

Regular-season showdowns still matter, too — especially for seeding, byes and home-field advantage. But there’s also more room for redemption, which we saw embodied by both championship game combatant’s last season. And through it all, the FPI gives us a roadmap to help navigate what’s shaping up to be another wild and transformative season of college football.

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Crochet retires 17 straight as Red Sox swipe G1

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Crochet retires 17 straight as Red Sox swipe G1

NEW YORK — Garrett Crochet retired 17 consecutive batters in a sparkling pitching performance, and pinch-hitter Masataka Yoshida lined a two-run single off reliever Luke Weaver that sent the Boston Red Sox past the New York Yankees 3-1 on Tuesday night in their AL Wild Card Series opener.

New York loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth inning, but All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman pitched out of the jam against his former team. Boston is 10-4 versus its longtime rival this year and halfway to winning the best-of-three playoff.

Game 2 is Wednesday night in the Bronx again, with Aaron Judge and the Yankees needing a victory to extend their season. Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA) will start for New York, opposed by Brayan Bello (11-9, 3.35).

Crochet gave up only Anthony Volpe‘s second-inning homer and improved to 4-0 against the Yankees this year, throwing a career-high 117 pitches in a marquee duel of ace left-handers with Max Fried. Crochet struck out 11 and walked none over 7⅔ innings while allowing four hits.

“The stuff was really good at that point,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said of Crochet, keeping him in well into the eighth inning. “He was throwing 97, 98, and the previous inning was a quick one. So, it gave us a chance to push the envelope.”

Pitching with a 2-1 lead after Yoshida’s go-ahead hit in the seventh, Crochet extended his streak of retired batters until Volpe singled with one out in the eighth. Crochet’s final pitch was his fastest at 100.2 mph, which Austin Wells took for a called third strike.

“He’s the best pitcher in the game,” Yankees slugger Aaron Judge said of Crochet. “He’s going to work all of his pitches, and he threw a little bit more off-speed early on. But we got the Volpe homer, and we got some guys on, but we couldn’t do much after that.”

Chapman retired Jose Caballero on a fly out to finish the eighth before Alex Bregman, playing his 100th postseason game, hit an RBI double in the ninth off David Bednar.

Paul Goldschmidt, Judge and Cody Bellinger loaded the bases with consecutive singles starting the bottom half, but Chapman recovered to get the save when he struck out Giancarlo Stanton, retired Jazz Chisholm Jr. on a fly out and fanned Trent Grisham with a 101 mph fastball.

Boston improved to 13-12 against the Yankees in the postseason, winning nine of the past 10 meetings.

Crochet threw the most pitches in a postseason game since Washington’s Stephen Strasburg tossed 117 against St. Louis in 2019.

Fried pitched shutout ball for 6⅓ innings but a Yankees bullpen that had a 4.37 ERA during the regular season, 23rd among the 30 teams, faltered again.

Weaver relieved with no one on, got ahead of Ceddanne Rafaela 0-2 in the count, then walked him on 11 pitches.

Nick Sogard grounded a hit into right-center, hustling to second when Judge didn’t sprint to pick up the ball. Yoshida lined the next pitch, a fastball at the letters, to center for a 2-1 lead.

Weaver had a 1.05 ERA in his first 24 appearances, was sidelined for 2½ weeks by a strained left hamstring, then had a 5.31 ERA over his final 40 games.

Fried got 19 swings and misses, striking out six and walking three while allowing four hits in 6⅓ innings. He escaped a second-and-third, two-out jam in the fourth, then first-and-second, one-out trouble in the fifth.

Volpe, who slumped to a .212 average this year, put the Yankees ahead when he drove a sinker to the opposite field, where the ball landed a half-dozen rows into the right-field seats. Volpe’s drive would have been a home run in all but one big league stadium: Fenway Park.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Winners and losers of Kirill Kaprizov’s NHL record-setting contract

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Winners and losers of Kirill Kaprizov's NHL record-setting contract

The Minnesota Wild handed out the largest contract in NHL history on Tuesday to star winger Kirill Kaprizov, as the 28-year-old will earn $136 million on an eight-year term through the 2033-34 season.

It’s a deal worth more in total money that the one Alex Ovechkin signed with the Washington Capitals ($124 million) in 2008, and carries a higher average annual value (AAV) than the one signed by Leon Draisaitl with the Edmonton Oilers ($14 million) last September.

It’s a contract that has sent shockwaves through the NHL. Some will benefit from its repercussions. Some will not. Here are the winners and losers of the Kaprizov contract, as we see them:


Winner: Bill Guerin

It was Guerin that finally got Kaprizov to leave the KHL for the NHL in 2021, succeeding where two previous Wild GMs had failed. Now he’s the guy that’s helped convinced Kaprizov to stay in Minnesota.

Guerin faced some enormous challenges in getting this done. One of them was the lure of unrestricted free agency under a rising salary cap, as Kaprizov wouldn’t have suffered from a lack of suitors. Some of those suitors might have been more appealing than the Wild: As one NHL agent told ESPN, the Wild’s status as a mid-tier Stanley Cup contender and Minnesota not being “a destination” for stars worked against them. Kaprizov had the hammer in negotiations, as was evidenced by the windfall he eventually received.

But Guerin also had some advantages here. His team could give Kaprizov the eighth contract year that the player reportedly wanted out of his next deal. He also had the financial backing of ownership to offer the richest contract in NHL history — $128 million earlier in September — and then increase that offer when Kaprizov didn’t sign.

Guerin also benefitted from having Kaprizov’s contract come up before a major change in the CBA rules. His contract pays out $128 million of his money in annual signing bonuses. That’s 94% of its value. Starting in Sept. 2026, contracts will only be able to offer signing bonuses worth 60% of the “aggregate compensation payable under the contract.”

Guerin landed the plane at time when many felt Kaprizov’s initial rejection of a record contract was his rejection of the franchise. Whether you agree with the compensation or not, give credit where it’s due: He got it done.


Loser: Kevin Cheveldayoff

Since 2021-22, Kyle Connor has scored just five fewer goals (153) than Kaprizov (158), having played 44 more games than the Minnesota winger. That’s on a 14.2% shooting percentage. Simply put, the 28-year-old Jet winger is as elite a goal-scorer as you’ll find on the wing — and as an unrestricted free agent next summer, should be compensated as such.

The question is whether that’ll happen in Winnipeg, where he’s entering his 10th season, or elsewhere.

If Connor was waiting for a salary domino to fall, this one landed with a sonic boom. Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff just watched Kaprizov reset the market for a player that scored 41 goals and had 56 assists for a career best 97 points in 82 games.

Cheveldayoff has done a masterful job retaining other stars like goalie Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, both at $8.5 million AAV over seven seasons. Market conditions were more favorable to the Jets when they re-upped in 2023. They aren’t now, thanks in part to Kaprizov.

The conundrum for Cheveldayoff and the Jets: Is Connor worth that money?

“He scores goals, but gives a lot back,” one NHL executive said.


Winner: Paul Theofanous

Wild owner Craig Leipold told The Athletic on Tuesday that the team was still convinced Kaprizov wanted to re-sign even after he didn’t agree to an eight-year, $128 million contract extension offer on Sept. 9.

“He never raised the money issue. That was always the agent,” Leipold said. “So, I mean, I think we always thought that we’re going to get this thing done, and we thought, at least in the last week or so, 17 was the number.”

Theofanous, Kaprizov’s agent, is a legendarily tough negotiator. He not only managed to get another $8 million added to an offer that would have already set a new NHL contract value record, but he negotiated a contract structure that pays Kaprizov $128 million in “buyout-proof” bonus money. Theofanous dug his heels in and won huge, despite the Wild’s belief that Kaprizov wouldn’t take this to free agency.


Loser: Player movement

The era of player retention continues.

The upper limit of the NHL salary cap this season is $95.5 million. It’s been estimated that the ceiling will be at least $104 million in 2026-27, the first time the NHL’s salary cap will have crested over the century mark. Some predicted this inflation would lead to a spike in player movement, as teams had more to spend on acquiring talent.

On the contrary, the rising cap has seen teams retain their players throughout the offseason, no longer sweating out the pressure points that the cap created. Kaprizov is the latest name to stay where his stuff is, and he’s likely not the last.


Winner: Getting locked in early

Hart Levine of the salary cap site Puck Pedia believes that hockey fans just have to accept that this is the new normal under the salary cap.

“It’s a big number, but we just have to get used to living in a world where the cap is going up each year. It’s going up 9% from this year to next year,” he told me.

It’s all about context. Heck, even Kaprizov’s deal might look like a bargain in the next few seasons.

Take Draisaitl’s contract that he signed last September. Levine says that under next year’s salary cap, Draisaitl’s contract would have been worth $15.25 million against the cap. Conversely, if you took Kaprizov’s contract and put into current cap dollars, the AAV would be around $15.6 million.

One NHL executive likened the rise in the salary cap to a “tidal wave” that’ll just keep adding more and more large contracts as it grows. Which means the key for teams is locking players in before that wave crests.

When discussing good cap management with some NHL sources, one team that came up multiple times was the Carolina Hurricanes.

Their front office, now led by GM Eric Tulsky, has locked up several players to long-term deals ahead of the dramatic salary cap increase: Forwards Sebastian Aho ($9.75 million through 2031-32), Seth Jarvis ($7,420,087 through 2031-32) and Logan Stankoven ($6 million through 2033-34), as well as newly acquired defenseman K’Andre Miller ($7.5 million through 2032-33) and forward Nikolaj Ehlers ($8.5 million through 2030-31).

The Canes have their core locked up long-term at a reasonable rate, and the flexibility to still go after big players via trades as they’ve done the last two seasons with Jake Guentzel and Mikko Rantanen.

Speaking of which …


Losers: Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen

Kaprizov’s contract will no doubt continue the dialogue about NHL cities with high income taxes and NHL cities that don’t have income taxes, a.k.a. the teams that happen to be winning Stanley Cups with some frequency lately.

According to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, Minnesota has the fifth-highest top income tax rate in the U.S., at 9.85%. There’s no question that’s a factor in Kaprizov getting $136 million over eight seasons, because he wouldn’t have gotten that same number in a no-tax state. Jeff Marek of Daily Faceoff spoke with one player agent who said Kaprizov’s average annual value in a place like Florida would have been around $14 million.

If that’s the case, then Kaprizov still would have made more annually than Mitch Marner of the Vegas Golden Knights and Mikko Rantanen of the Dallas Stars, who both signed mega-contracts in the last year worth $12 million against the cap through 2032-33.

Marner’s points-per-game average of the last three seasons was equal to Kaprizov’s (1.24) while Rantanen’s was right behind them (1.22). If either of them had the power of clairvoyance and could see what Kaprizov just earned, what would those contracts have looked like?


Winner: Kirill Kaprizov

We must obviously shout out the man himself, who set a new standard for NHL contracts in both overall value and average annual value. From a production standpoint, he’s among the best offensive hockey players in the world: He plays to a 50-goal pace, is a dynamic playmaker and shown to be a more committed defensive player than one might assume given his gaudy stats.

But there’s one number that’s never added up for Kaprizov, and that’s games played. The winger has played over 80 games once in his NHL career, back in 2021-22 when finished seventh in the MVP voting. Last season saw him limited to 41 games. He’s 28 years old, turning 29 next April.

Again, it’s a credit to Kaprizov that he has still managed to post astounding numbers despite those injuries. But for this level of investment, the Wild need him on the ice and not in the press box. Minnesota was 63-41-12 with Kaprizov in the lineup over the last two seasons and 21-23-4 without him. He’s a difference-maker.


The most complicated contract decision in the NHL just got a little more complicated.

McDavid is entering the final year of his contract with the Oilers. As we’ve written previously, everything is on the table for his future — from taking a shorter-term deal to remain in Edmonton to leaving for what would unquestionably become the richest free-agent contract the NHL has ever seen.

The latest speculation around the league: If McDavid does decide to remain with the Oilers beyond this season, it wouldn’t be for a max contract, with the idea being that McDavid would want fair compensation while giving Edmonton GM Stan Bowman flexibility to improve the team in pursuit of McDavid’s elusive Stanley Cup ring.

Yet there are also those who believe that McDavid should secure the bag even if he stays in Edmonton — after all, why should he pay for the team’s cap-management missteps?

McDavid is the best hockey player in the world. Whatever he wants on a new contract in Edmonton, they’re going to give him. It’s the “whatever he wants” that’s now a thornier issue, as the bar has been raised from Draisaitl’s $14 million to Kaprizov’s $17 million. Will McDavid choose to reset that bar whenever — or wherever — he signs his new deal?

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Skubal ties Tigers record with 14 Ks in G1 win

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Skubal ties Tigers record with 14 Ks in G1 win

CLEVELAND — Tarik Skubal tied a franchise postseason record with 14 strikeouts and the Detroit Tigers defeated the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 on Tuesday in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series.

Will Vest recorded the final four outs for Detroit, surviving a tense ninth inning after Cleveland star Jose Ramirez got hung up between third base and home for the second out.

The Tigers, who struggled down the stretch, allowing Cleveland to secure the AL Central title, can advance to the division series round for the second straight year with a win Wednesday.

“It means a lot to take the ball in Game 1,” Skubal said. “To have the trust in our whole organization, it means a lot. And it doesn’t really matter how we got here. We’re up 1-0 in a best of three.”

Detroit scored the go-ahead run in the seventh inning when Zach McKinstry‘s safety squeeze scored Riley Greene from third.

Ramirez led off the ninth with an infield single and advanced to third when shortstop Javier Baez threw wide of first base. Vest struck out pinch-hitter George Valera, then Kyle Manzardo hit a grounder to Vest. Ramirez broke for home but was cut off by Vest, who chased him down and tagged him out.

“That ball’s two feet either way, he scores,” Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said. “It just happened to go right back to Vest. So we play aggressive. We always do. We run the bases aggressive. I wouldn’t play that any other way.”

C.J. Kayfus then hit a flyout to Baez in shallow left to end it.

Skubal, who is favored to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award, set a career high for strikeouts. He was dominant and unfazed as he pitched on the same mound where one week ago, he threw a 99 mph fastball that struck Cleveland designated hitter David Fry in the nose and face during the sixth inning.

“I thought my outing was coming to a close,” Skubal said when asked about being allowed to continue on into the eighth inning. “But I was ready to go back out there. I’m never going to take myself out of a game, and I don’t ever really want the handshake.”

The right-hander went 7 2/3 innings and threw 107 pitches, one off his career high, including 73 strikes. He allowed one run on only three hits, with two being infield singles, and walked three. His fastball averaged 99.1 mph, 1.6 mph above his season average.

Skubal outdueled Cleveland starter Gavin Williams, who was just as effective but hurt by a pair of Guardians errors. Williams allowed two unearned runs in six-plus innings on five hits with eight strikeouts and one walk.

“I was just worried about doing my best to execute each pitch,” Skubal said, “and just do what makes me a good pitcher, and that’s getting ahead, and getting guys into leverage.”

Detroit took a 1-0 lead in the first inning when Kerry Carpenter scored on Spencer Torkelson’s two-out bloop single to left field. Carpenter got aboard on a base hit to right but advanced to second on a fielding error by Johnathan Rodriguez.

The Guardians finally got to Skubal in the fourth by not having a ball leave the infield.

Angel Martinez hit a slow grounder between Skubal and second baseman Gleyber Torres to lead off the inning. He advanced to second on Ramírez’s walk.

With two outs and runners on first and second, Gabriel Arias hit a high chopper over Skubal. The ball landed on the infield grass between the mound and second base. Skubal fielded the ball as Martinez rounded third. Martinez’s left hand touched the plate before Detroit catcher Dillon Dingler applied the tag.

Martinez was originally ruled out on the head-first slide, but it was overturned by instant replay to tie the game at 1-1.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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