How regime change in Iran could affect global oil prices
Senior Israeli officials said this week that their military campaign against Iran could trigger the fall of the regime, an event that would have enormous implications for the global oil market.
The oil market has reacted with remarkable restraint as Israel has bombed the third-largest crude producer in OPEC for eight straight days, with no clear sign the conflict will end anytime soon.
Oil prices are up about 10% since Israel launched its attack on Iran a week ago, but with oil supplies so far undisturbed, both U.S. crude oil and the global benchmark Brent remain below $80 per barrel.
Rising risk
Still, the risk of a supply disruption that triggers a big spike in prices is growing the longer the conflict rages on, according to energy analysts.
President Donald Trump has threatened the life of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is considering helping Israel destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. For its part, Iran’s leadership is more likely to target regional oil facilities if it feels its very existence is at stake, the analysts said.
Israel’s primary aim is to degrade Iran’s nuclear program, said Scott Modell, CEO of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. But Jerusalem also appears to have a secondary goal of damaging Iran’s security establishment to such an extent that the country’s domestic opposition can rise up against the regime, Modell said.
“They’re not calling it regime change from without, they’re calling it regime change from within,” said Modell, a former CIA officer and Iran expert who served in the Middle East.
Official denial
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies that regime change is Israel’s official goal, telling a public broadcaster on Thursday that domestic governance is an internal Iranian decision. But the prime minister ascknowledged Khamenei’s regime could fall as a consequence of the conflict.
Defense Minister Israel Katz on Friday ordered Israel’s military to intensify strikes on Iran with a goal to “destabilize the regime” by attacking the “foundations of its power.” Israel reportedly sought to kill Khamenei in the opening days of its campaign, but Trump vetoed the plan.
There are no signs that the regime in Iran is on the verge of collapse, Modell said.
But further political destabilization in Iran “could lead to significantly higher oil prices sustained over extended periods,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, in a note to clients this week.
There have been eight cases of regime change in major oil producing countries since 1979, according to JPMorgan. Oil prices spiked 76% on average at their peak in the wake of these changes, before pulling back to stabilize at a price about 30% higher compared to pre-crisis levels, according to the bank.
For example, oil prices nearly tripled from mid-1979 to mid-1980 after the Iranian revolution deposed the Shah and brought the Islamic Republic to power, according to JPMorgan. That triggered a worldwide economic recession.
More recently, the revolution in Libya that overthrew Muammar Gaddafi jolted oil prices from $93 per barrel in January 2011 to $130 per barrel by April that year, according to JPMorgan. That price spike coincided with the European debt crisis and nearly caused a global recession, according to the bank.
Bigger than Libya
Regime change in Iran would have a much bigger impact on the global oil market than the 2011 revolution in Libya because Iran is far bigger producer, Modell said.
“We would need to see some strong indicators that the state is coming to a halt, that regime change is starting to look real before the market would really start pricing in three plus million barrels a day going offline,” Modell said.
If the regime in Iran believes it is facing an existential crisis, it could use its stockpile of short-range missiles to target energy facilities in the region and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Tehran could also try to mine the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water between Iran and Oman through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows, Croft said.
“We’re already getting reports that Iran is jamming ship transponders very, very aggressively,” Croft told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday. QatarEnergy and the Greek Shipping Ministry have already warned their vessels to avoid the strait as much as possible, Croft said.
“These are not calm waters even though we have not had missiles flying in the straits,” she said.
Greater than even odds
Rapidan sees a 70% chance the U.S. will join Israeli airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Oil prices would probably rally $4 to $6 per barrel if Iran’s key uranium enrichment facility at Fordow is hit, Modell said. Iran will likely respond in a limited fashion to ensure the regime’s survival, he said.
But there is also a 30% risk of Iran disrupting energy supplies by retaliating against infrastructure in the Gulf or vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rapidan. Oil prices could surge above $100 per barrel if Iran fully mobilizes to disrupt shipping in the strait, according to the firm.
“They could disrupt, in our view, shipping through Hormuz by a lot longer than the market thinks,” said Bob Bob McNally, Rapidan’s founder and former energy advisor to President George W. Bush.
Shipping could be interrupted for weeks or months, McNally said, rather than the oil market’s view that the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, would resolve the situation in hours or days.
“It would not be a cakewalk,” he said.
The electric restomod experts at Lunaz have turned their talents towards the classic Rolls-Royce Phantom V limousine – and the result is exactly the kind of smooth, quiet, and luxurious ride RR’s founders would have built.
Rolls-Royce’ founders dedicated their engineering talents to developing cars that were smooth, quiet, and adequately powerful – and they spared no expense. The company Charles Rolls and Henry Royce founded would eventually go on to develop some of the most powerful and celebrated combustion engines of the twentieth century … but the car they wanted to build? It was electric.
“The electric car is perfectly noiseless and clean,” Charles Rolls told The Motor-Car Journal, all the way back in April of 1900. (!) “There is no smell or vibration, and they should become very useful when fixed charging stations can be arranged. But for now, I do not anticipate that they will be very serviceable – at least for many years to come.”
Well, 125 years seems like “many” to – and the talented craftspeople and engineers at Lunaz seem to agree. Meet the Lunaz Rolls-Royce Phantom V limousine.
It’s glorious
Lunaz says it’s true to Rolls’ vision “down to the smallest, most indulgent detail.” To that end, the company re-trims the modern heated and ventilated seats in fine leathers, hand-cut and stitched to the buyers’ specifications. In the rear, the center console can be ordered with a built-in cigar humidor, a cocktail bar, or some other custom-spec, lockable storage lined in suede and polished walnut (translation: guns and drugs, probably).
When reimagining the Rolls-Royce Phantom V, (we) started by understanding the essence of its original design. Every component and dynamic was scrutinized to identify where thoughtful innovation could truly elevate the experience. The result is a harmonious blend of modern advancements and original mastery, unlocking new levels of performance, reliability and refinement while honoring Rolls-Royce’ classic soul.
Like the classic Bentley S2 Continental the company revealed in 2023, the big electric Roller is equipped with an 80 kWh battery pack sending electrons to a proprietary Lunaz drivetrain featuring 400 hp worth of electric motors delivering a silky-smooth 530 lb-ft of torque, good for a 0-100 km/h (62 mph) swoosh in about seven seconds. Of course, why you’d ever ask your driver to perform such plebian stunts is simply beyond me.
The transformation and restoration took more than 5,500 man-hours to complete, and involve more than 11,000 new or reconditioned components at a cost of more than £1 million (about $1.35 million US). If you place your order today, you should get yours in 18-24 months.
Lunaz Rolls-Royce gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: Lunaz.
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Fortescue has taken the wraps off a prototype of its proposed “Infinity Train” electric locomotive, making the 1,100 km (about 685 miles) trip from Perth to the Pilbara and marking a major milestone in the decarbonization of the company’s heavy haul operations.
Co-developed with the locomotive experts at Downer Group, Fortescue revealed its concept for a battery electric “Infinity Train” back in March of 2022. At the time, the company promised a “world’s first” iron ore train capable of fully charging its batteries through regenerative braking. The two companies claimed the clever technology would create a self-sustaining, zero-emission rail system powered entirely by the force of gravity during the train’s loaded downhill travels.
This week, the concept went from the drawing board to the real world, completing an 1,100 km trip across Australia and proving itself to be up to the task of handling the grueling demands of Fortescue’s massive mining operations.
“We’re thrilled to see our battery electric locomotive prototype arrive in the Pilbara,” said Ellie Coates, CEO of Fortescue Zero. She added that the achievement, using zero fossil fuels, “represent(s) a major step in Fortescue’s journey to Real Zero.”
The Fortescue Infinity Train uses the energy produced by slowing the loaded train on downhill sections of the company’s 385 mile private, heavy-haul rail network to recharge its battery systems. That energy is enough to bring the unloaded train back to the mine, eliminating the need for external charging infrastructure or additional renewable energy sources, making the train almost entirely self-sufficient.
Fortescue says the deployment of the Infinity Train concept at its mines will eliminate more than 82 million liters of diesel fuel consumption (about 21 million gallons, which ChatGPT tells me amounts to about 235,200 tons of CO₂ emissions).
That change alone would eliminate about 11% of Scope 1 emissions annually for Fortescue all on its own, putting it well on its way to its stated goal of achieving “Real Zero” emissions-free operations.
Electrek’s Take
Using gravity to charge up heavily-laden mining vehicles on downhill runs is an idea that’s been put into practice for years, with great success wherever the topography allows (since 2017, at least). Combining that clever use of gravity, traction braking, and battery storage for use on a rail system like this just seems smart, and it makes me think we’re just scratching the surface of all the clever ways electrification and battery storage will eventually get put to use.
I wonder what would happen if you threw some battery electric rail cars into the mix, as well!? You guys are smart, head down to the comments and let me know (and, while you’re there, help me check ChatGPT’s math on those carbon emissions).
SOURCE | IMAGES: Fortescue, via LinkedIn.
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A new study by the Pembina Institute shows that a third of the commercial trucks and vans on Toronto’s roads are ready to electrify today – while nearly half could be electrified by 2030.
A new analysis by the Pembina Institute titled Electrifying Fleet Trucks: A case study estimating potential in the GTHA finds that as many as a third of trucks in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) could go electric today, rising to more than half by early 2030s — insulating businesses from rising fuel costs and reducing harmful air pollution that drives up health care costs. What’s more, the report found that battery range and charging access are less of a barrier than expected.
“Real-world travel data from Canadian trucks, collected over summer and winter months, shows that electrification is possible today,” says Chandan Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst at the Pembina Institute. “In fact, with a staggered approach, the GTHA — home to over half the province’s vehicle stock — could reach 50% sales for lighter trucks by 2030, helping offset lower adoption rates for heavier trucks.”
So, what’s holding back electric vehicle adoption? According to the study’s authors, it’s a matter of public policy. But without the right policies in place, the study argues, businesses face unnecessary hurdles in making the switch.
“Our analysis shows that Ontario has a clear path to accelerating the transition to zero-emission trucks — unlocking economic opportunities, improving public health and positioning itself as a leader in clean transportation,” says Adam Thorn, Transportation Director at the Pembina Institute. “With the right policies in place, businesses can reap the benefits of lower costs while the province strengthens its manufacturing sector and energy security.”
We already knew this
If all of this sounds a bit familiar, it’s probably because you’ve heard this before. The California Air Resource Board (CARB) came to very similar conclusions in their report, titled, Determining energy use patterns and battery charging infrastructure for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles and off-road equipment.
CARB staff believe that several heavy-duty ZE vocational trucks are ready to be electrified because of their low daily mileage demands (<100 mi). Long-haul Class 8 trucks continue to be a challenge to fully electrify because of the long operation range (300+ mi) and on-demand charging need.
In fact, the California study came to almost the exact conclusion that the Toronto study did when examining the heavy-duty Class 7 and 8 EV market. Which is to say: it’s not a question of capability, but a question of availability.
“The availability of on-road heavy-duty ZE trucks has increased in recent years,” reads the report. “But their numbers remain significantly lower than their diesel and natural gas counterparts. As of 2022, an estimated 2,300 on-road ZE medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are operating in California, with the vast majority located in South Coast Air Bassin (Figure 1). On-road heavy-duty ZE transit buses account for the majority of all on-road heavy-duty ZEVs in California, but, as of 2023, sales of ZE heavy-duty trucks and medium-duty step vans have outpaced other vocations, indicating that these vehicles will be more prevalent in fleets in the near future.”
That’s proven to be true, with sales of Class 2 vans and other medium-duty EVs rapidly outpacing the general public’s adoption of EVs as new options became available in 2024, with no signs of slowing down in 2025 (at least, where the right policies are in place).
Here are some of the key takeaways from the Pembina Institute study from the Toronto truck market. Obviously, it won’t directly translate to every city’s truck fleet – but take a look at Toronto’s demographics and some of the key variables involved (truck size, average loads, miles driven, etc.) and you might be surprised at how similar your city and your fleet might be.
- Businesses can save up to 40% of fuel and maintenance costs by switching to electric trucks.
- Electric trucks eliminate tailpipe emissions, cutting harmful air pollution and improve public health.
- Traffic related air pollution in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area leads to 700 premature deaths and 2,800 hospitalizations every year, costing health care system $4.6 billion annually.
- Ontario’s Driving Prosperity plan highlights the need for increased electrification, while the City of Toronto is targeting 30% of all registered vehicles to be electric by 2030.
- Governments worldwide are embracing electrification, setting ambitious sales targets for zero-emission vans and trucks.
- By 2030, jurisdictions like Europe, China, California, British Columbia and Quebec aim for about 35% of new truck sales to be zero-emission, ramping up to nearly 100% by 2040.
SOURCES: CARB, Pembina Institute, via Electric Autonomy; featured image by PACCAR.
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