Midseason grades for all 30 MLB teams: ‘A’ is for Astros, ‘F’ is for …?
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David Schoenfield
We’re past due to hand out some midseason grades, so let’s hand out some midseason grades.
As we pass the 90-game mark in the 2025 MLB season, my team of the first half isn’t the well-rounded Detroit Tigers, who do get our highest grade for owning MLB’s best record, or the explosive Chicago Cubs or Shohei Ohtani‘s Los Angeles Dodgers, but a team most baseball fans love to hate: the Houston Astros. They lost their two best players from last season and their best hitter has been injured — and they’re playing their best baseball since they won the 2022 World Series.
Let’s get to the grades. As always, we’re grading off preseason expectations, factoring in win-loss record and quality of performance, while looking at other positive performances and injuries.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game’s top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
I heard someone refer to them as the Zombie Astros, which feels apropos. Alex Bregman left as a free agent, they traded Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez has been injured and has just three home runs, and the Jose Altuve experiment in left field predictably fizzled.
But here they are, fighting for the best record in the majors and holding a comfortable lead in the AL West. They’re getting star turns from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena, while the risky decision to start Cam Smith in the majors with very little minor league experience has paid off, as he has now become their cleanup hitter.
If we ignore the COVID-19 season, the Astros look on their way to an eighth straight division title.
This could be at least a half-grade higher based on everything that has gone right: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s attention-grabbing breakout, Tucker doing everything expected after the big trade, Seiya Suzuki‘s monster power numbers and Matthew Boyd‘s All-Star turn in the rotation. The Cubs are on pace for their most wins since their World Series title season in 2016.
There have been a few hiccups, however, especially in the rotation with Justin Steele‘s season-ending injury and Ben Brown‘s inconsistency, plus rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has scuffled, and the bench has been weak aside from their backup catchers.
Still, this is a powerhouse lineup, and the Cubs will seek to improve their rotation at the deadline.
They just keep winning of late, going from 25-27 and seven games behind the Yankees on May 25 to taking over first place from the slumping Bronx Bombers, a remarkable turnaround over just 36 games. They went 27-9 over a 36-game stretch ending with their eighth win in a row on Sunday.
George Springer‘s recent surge has been fun to watch, a reminder of how good he was at his peak, and Addison Barger has been mashing over the past two months.
Some of the stats don’t add up to the Blue Jays being this good — they’ve barely outscored their opponents — but there might be more offense in the tank from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a healthy Anthony Santander, and the bullpen, a soft spot, is the easiest area to upgrade.
Their success is best summed up by the fact that Freddy Peralta is their lone All-Star, but they have a whole bunch of players who have contributed between 1 and 2 WAR.
Brandon Woodruff looked good on Sunday in his first start in nearly two years, so that could be a huge boost for the second half.
I’m curious to see how Jackson Chourio performs as well. While his counting stats — extra-base hits, RBIs — are fine, his triple-slash line remains below last season, especially his OBP. He had a huge second half in 2024 (.310/.363/.552) and if he does that again, the Brewers could find themselves back in the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
The Rays started off slow, with a losing record through the end of April, but then went 33-22 in May and June to claw back into the AL East race — as the Rays usually do, last year being the recent exception.
Two key performers have been third baseman Junior Caminero, who has a chance to become just the third 21-year-old to hit 40 home runs, and All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Due to the league wanting the Rays to play more home games early in the season, the July and August slate will be very road-heavy, so we’ll see how the Rays adapt to a difficult two-month stretch, especially since their pitching isn’t quite as deep as it has been in other seasons.
No, they’re not going to be the greatest team of all time. But they might win 100 games — even though Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, their huge offseason acquisitions, have combined for just two wins in 10 starts.
The lineup, of course, has been terrific, with Ohtani leading the NL in several categories and Will Smith leading the batting race. By wRC+, it’s been the best offense in Dodgers history.
If they can get some combo of Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow healthy, plus Ohtani eventually ramped up to a bigger workload on the mound, the Dodgers still loom as World Series favorites.
They are on pace for 95 wins, mainly on the strength of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, who are a combined 23-7 with 11.8 WAR. Jesus Luzardo‘s ERA is bloated due to that two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs, but he’s otherwise been solid as well.
But, overall, it hasn’t always been the smoothest of treks. The bullpen has imploded a few times and the offense has lacked power aside from Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper is back after missing three weeks, and they need to get his bat going. Look for some bullpen additions at the trade deadline — and perhaps an outfielder as well.
The Cardinals have been a minor surprise — perhaps even to the Cardinals themselves. St. Louis was viewing this as a rebuilding year of sorts — not that the Cardinals ever hit rock bottom and start completely over. They had a hot May, winning 12 of 13 at one point, but the offense has been fading of late, with those three straight shutout losses to Pittsburgh and six shutout losses since June 25.
The starting rotation doesn’t generate a lot of swing and miss with both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas seeing their ERAs starting to climb. Brendan Donovan is the team’s only All-Star rep, and that kind of sums up this team: solid but without any star power. That might foretell a second-half fade.
All-Star starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, plus a dominant bullpen, have led the way, although after starting 12-4, the Giants have basically been a .500 team for close to three months now. Rafael Devers hasn’t yet ignited the offense since coming over from Boston, and the Giants have lost four 1-0 games.
These final three games at home against the Dodgers before the All-Star break will be a crucial series, as Los Angeles has slowly pulled away in the NL West.
This was an “A+” through June 12, when the Mets were 45-24 and owned the best record in baseball, even though Juan Soto hadn’t gotten hot. Soto finally got going in June, but the pitching collapsed, and the Mets went through a disastrous 1-10 stretch.
The rotation injuries have piled up, exacerbating the lack of bullpen depth. Recent games have been started by Justin Hagenman (who had a 6.21 ERA in Triple-A), journeyman reliever Chris Devenski, Paul Blackburn (7.71 ERA) and Frankie Montas, who has had to start even though he’s clearly not throwing the ball well. The Mets need to get the rotation healthy, but also could use more offense from Mark Vientos and their catchers (Francisco Alvarez was demoted to Triple-A).
At times it has felt like Cal Raleigh has been a one-man team with his record-breaking first half. But he will be joined on the All-Star squad by starting pitcher Bryan Woo, closer Andres Munoz and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who made it on the strength of his defense, as his offense has been a disappointment.
The offense has been one of the best in the majors on the road, but the rotation has been nowhere near as effective as the past couple of seasons, with George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missing time with injuries. They just shut out the Pirates three games in a row, so maybe that will get the rotation on a roll.
They’re just out of the wild-card picture while hanging around .500, so we give them a decent grade since that exceeds preseason expectations. It feels like a little bit of a mirage given their run differential — their record in one-run games (good) versus their record in blowout games (not good) — and various holes across the lineup and pitching staff.
But they’ve done two things to keep them in the race. One, they hit a lot of home runs. Two, they’re the only team in the majors to use just five starting pitchers. The rotation hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been stable.
The Padres are probably fortunate to be where they are, given some of their issues. As expected, the offensive depth has been a problem.
Not as expected, Dylan Cease has struggled while Michael King‘s injury after a strong start has left them without last year’s dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (although Nick Pivetta has been one of the best signings of the offseason). Yu Darvish just made his season debut on Monday, so hopefully he’ll provide a lift.
The Padres haven’t played well against the better teams, including a 2-5 record against the Dodgers, but did clean up against the Athletics, Rockies and Pirates, going 16-2 against those three teams.
For now, the Reds are stuck in neutral. Leave out 2022, when they lost 100 games, and it’s otherwise been a string of .500-ish seasons: 31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021, 82-80 in 2023, 77-85 in 2024 and now a similar record so far in 2025.
The hope was that Terry Francona would be a difference-maker. Maybe that will play out down the stretch, but the best hope is to get the rotation clicking on all cylinders at the same time. That means Andrew Abbott continuing his breakout performance, plus getting Hunter Greene healthy again and rookie Chase Burns to live up to the hype after a couple of shaky outings following an impressive MLB debut.
Throw in Nick Lodolo and solid Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and this group can be good enough to pitch the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance since 2013.
The Yankees have hit their annual midseason swoon — which has been subject to much intense analysis from disgruntled Yankees fans — and that opening weekend sweep of the Brewers, when the Yankees’ torpedo bats were the big story in baseball, now seems long ago.
Going from seven up to three back in such a short time is a disaster — but not disastrous. Nonetheless, the Yankees will have to do some hardcore self-evaluation heading to the trade deadline.
The offense wasn’t going to be as good as it was in April, when Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice were all over the heads. So, do they need a hitter? Or with Clarke Schmidt now likely joining Gerrit Cole as a Tommy John casualty, do they need a starting pitcher? Or both?
From the book of “things we didn’t expect,” page 547: The Marlins are averaging more runs per game than the Orioles, Padres, Braves and Rangers, to name a few teams. They’re averaging almost as many runs per game as the Mets, and last time we checked, the Marlins weren’t the team to give Soto $765 million.
An eight-game winning streak at the end of June has the Marlins going toe-to-toe with the Braves for third place in the NL East even though the starting rotation has been a mess, with Sandy Alcantara on track to become just the fourth qualified pitcher with an ERA over 7.00.
Heading into the season, I thought that if any team was going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, it would be the Diamondbacks. The offense has once again been one of the best in the majors, but the pitching issues have been painful.
After the aggressive move to sign Corbin Burnes, he went down with Tommy John surgery after 11 starts. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt each have an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. Rodriguez was better in June before a shellacking on July 4, while Gallen remains homer-prone, so it’s hard to tell if improvement is on the horizon. Their playoff odds are hovering just under 20%, so there’s a chance, but they need to get red-hot like they did last July and August.
It feels like it’s been more soap opera than baseball season in Boston, with the Devers drama finally ending with the shocking trade with the Giants.
If you give added weight that this is the Red Sox, a team that should be operating with the big boys in both budget and aspirations and instead seemed to only want to dump Devers’ contract, then feel free to lower this grade a couple notches, even if the Red Sox are close in the wild-card standings.
On the field, the heralded rookie trio of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer hasn’t exactly clicked, with Campbell returning to the minors after posting a .902 OPS in April. A big test will come out of the All-Star break, when they play the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins and Astros in a tough 15-game stretch.
After last season’s surprise playoff appearance, it’s been a frustrating 2025 — although I’m not sure this result is necessarily a surprise.
There were concerns about the offense heading into the season and those concerns have proven correct. They were getting no production from their outfield, so they rushed Jac Caglianone to the majors to much hype, but he has struggled and might need a reset back in Triple-A. Even Bobby Witt Jr., as good as he has been (on pace for 7.5 WAR), has seen his OPS drop 140 points.
On the bright side, Kris Bubic emerged as an All-Star starter and Noah Cameron has filled in nicely for the injured Cole Ragans, so maybe they trade a starter for some offense.
Coming off a catastrophic 2024 season, nobody was expecting anything from the White Sox. Indeed, another 121-loss season loomed as a possibility. While they’re on pace to lose 100 again, they’ve at least played more competitive baseball thanks to their pitching.
Rookie starters Shane Smith and Sean Burke have shown promise, while rookie position players Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and now Colson Montgomery are getting their initial taste of the majors.
There has been the mix of calamity: Luis Robert Jr. has been unproductive and is probably now untradeable, and former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn hit .189 and was traded to the Brewers.
The Twins are one organization that might like a do-over of the past five seasons. It feels like they’ve had the most talent in the division, but all they’ve done is squeeze out one soft division title in 2023. Now, the Tigers have passed them in talent and other factors, such as payroll flexibility.
There’s still time for the Twins to turn things around in 2025, but outside of that wonderful 13-game winning streak, they haven’t played winning baseball.
Overall, it’s been yet another bad season, despite Paul Skenes‘ brilliance. Really, do we talk enough about him? Yes, we do talk about him, but he has a 1.95 ERA through his first 42 career starts. Incredible.
Here’s an amazing thing about baseball. The Pirates are not a good team, but they recently put together one of the best six-game stretches in history. That’s not stretching the description. First, they swept the Mets — a good team — by scores of 9-1, 9-2 and 12-1. Then they swept the Cardinals — a good team — with three shutouts, 7-0, 1-0 and 5-0. They became the first team since at least 1901 to score 43 runs or more and allow four runs or fewer in a six-game stretch. And then they promptly got shut out three games in a row, making them the first to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight shutouts.
Eighteen of our 28 voters picked them to win the AL West before the season, but it’s looking more and more like the 2023 World Series might be a stone-cold fluke in the middle of a string of losing seasons. That year, nearly everyone in the lineup had a career year at the plate, and the pitching got hot at the right time.
This year’s Rangers, though, have struggled to score runs, and while some have pointed to the offensive environment at Globe Life Field, they’re near the bottom in road OPS as well. It’s been fun seeing Jacob deGrom back at a dominating level, and Nathan Eovaldi should have been an All-Star.
Put it this way: If the Rangers can somehow squeeze into the postseason, you don’t want to face the Rangers in a short series. Indeed, if any team looms as an October upset special, it might be the Rangers.
The Nationals received superlative first-half performances from James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, while CJ Abrams is on the way to his best season. But there remains a lack of overall organizational progress, which finally led to the firings on Sunday of longtime GM Mike Rizzo and longtime manager Dave Martinez. A 7-19 record in June sealed their fate, as the rotation has been bad and the bullpen arguably the worst in baseball.
Until the Nationals figure out how to improve their pitching — or, better yet, find an owner who wants to win — they will be stuck going nowhere.
That fell apart in a hurry. Sunday’s loss was Cleveland’s 10th in a row, a stretch that remarkably included five shutouts. Indeed, the Guardians have now been shut out 11 times; the franchise record in the post-dead-ball-era (since 1920) is 20 shutouts in 1968.
There’s nothing worse than watching a team that can’t score runs, so that tells you how exciting the Guardians have been. Last year, the Guardians hit exceptionally well with runners in scoring position, keeping afloat what was otherwise a mediocre offense. That hasn’t happened in 2025 (trading Josh Naylor didn’t help either). Throw in some predictable regression from the bullpen, and this season looks lost.
We can’t give this a complete failing grade due to the emergence of All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson (the Athletics’ first All-Star starter since Josh Donaldson in 2014) and slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who have a chance to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, we have Denzel Clarke‘s circus catches in center field.
But otherwise? Ugh. The Sacramento gamble already looks like a disaster, three months into a three-year stay. The team is drawing well below Sutter Health Park’s 14,000-seat capacity, with many recent games drawing under 10,000 fans. Luis Severino bashed the small crowds and the lack of air-conditioning.
The A’s had a groundbreaking ceremony for their new park in Vegas, renting heavy construction equipment as background props. Maybe they should have spent that money on more pitching help.
Based on preseason expectations, the Braves have clearly been the biggest disappointment in the National League — fighting the Orioles for most disappointing overall.
What’s gone wrong? They haven’t scored runs, as the offense continues its remarkable fade from a record-setting performance just two seasons ago. The collapses of Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies lead the way, with lack of production at shortstop and left field playing a big role as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, and the team is 11-22 in one-run games. Spencer Strider hasn’t yet reached his pre-injury level and Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before going down.
The Braves haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017, but that run is clearly in jeopardy.
The Orioles have a similar record to the Braves but have played much worse, including losses of 24-2, 19-5, 15-3 and two separate 9-0 shutouts.
They will spend the trade deadline dealing away as many of their impending free agents as possible, and then do a lot of soul-searching heading into the offseason. After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, will this season just be a blip? While the pitching struggles aren’t necessarily a big surprise, what has happened to the offense? Are some of their young players prospects or suspects?
After two months of Cleveland Spiders-level baseball, it would be easy to make fun of the Rockies. Especially since they recently announced Walker Monfort — son of the owner — was promoted to executive VP and will replace outgoing president and COO Greg Feasel.
On the other hand, the Rockies are doing something right: They just drew 121,000 for a three-game series against the White Sox.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents
The deal: Five years
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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Bill Connelly
In Week 12, college football said, “You’re going to miss me when I’m gone.” The results were consequential enough: No. 4 Alabama went down at home in the funkiest fashion imaginable, No. 5 Georgia pulled off a statement win and plenty of aspiring College Football Playoff contenders — No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 17 USC, No. 18 Michigan — narrowly avoided disaster.
But really, this was one of the best college football weekends of the season because the college football itself was just so damn good. Tuesday night’s MACtion was incredible. We got beautiful ACC nonsense Friday night. The noon and 3:30 p.m. ET shifts gave us a number of heart-stoppers, and while Saturday evening wasn’t particularly dramatic, we still got a rush-off between Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy (300 yards and 3 touchdowns against Mississippi State) and Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy (224 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida) and an angry, late statement of intent from BYU. Meanwhile, the smaller-school ranks gave us countless overtimes, comebacks and surprises, plus some last-minute playoff berths.
In this column, we have a longstanding policy: If a week is just so good that you want to relive it game by game, then we relive it game by game! With stops to explore different playoff and conference title odds, here are my 25 favorite games from one of my favorite weekends of the season.
My 25 favorite games of Week 12
1. No. 3 Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 30. We’ll start with the obvious one. At halftime, after probably the worst half of Marcel Reed‘s life, I looked up what the worst-ever home loss was for a top-three team against an unranked opponent. Best I could tell, it was a tie between No. 2 Iowa’s 24-7 loss to Purdue in 2021 and No. 2 Auburn’s 27-10 loss to Arkansas in 2006. Since the score was 30-3 South Carolina at the time, this felt awfully relevant.
Reed had misfired nonstop in the first half, going a shocking 6-for-19 with 2 interceptions and 2 sacks. Almost anytime he delivered a semi-accurate ball, his receivers dropped it. A&M was unbeaten and obviously had a mulligan to give in this one, but it was fair to wonder if the Aggies might drop quite a bit in the playoff rankings, enough to make fans nervous heading into their season ender against Texas.
Some relevant second-half stats:
Total yards: A&M 371 (9.8 per play), SC 76 (2.9)
Success rate*: A&M 65.8%, South Carolina 23.1%
Marcel Reed: 16-for-20 for 298 yards and three touchdowns
SC’s LaNorris Sellers: 6-for-11 for 63 yards and four sacks (net yards in 15 pass attempts: 39)
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
A&M won the second half 28-0, and the Aggies only made things interesting after a fumbled, goal-to-go trick play kept them from going up 38-30 late. South Carolina had a chance to drive for a shocking game-winning field goal, but that would have required Sellers to stay upright. He was sacked twice, and the Gamecocks turned the ball over on downs.
I’ve been referencing Playoff Tiers quite a bit lately — it’s my way of separating teams into groups with similar playoff odds (combining the Allstate Playoff Predictor’s odds with odds derived from SP+). Now that A&M has avoided disaster, Tier 1 is pretty much set.
CFP Tier 1 odds: Ohio State 99.9%, Indiana 99.9%, Texas A&M 99.9%.
While we’re at it, the five teams in Tier 2 are also in excellent shape.
CFP Tier 2 odds: Texas Tech 94.9%, Georgia 94.8%, Ole Miss 94.0%, Oregon 88.4%, Notre Dame 78.2%
There’s still some maneuverability here but not much. And honestly, considering Notre Dame is a projected favorite of at least 31 points in each of its final two games (Syracuse and Stanford), I don’t see how the Irish are under about 95%.
2. Kent State 42, Akron 35 (OT). Last Tuesday was my favorite day of MACtion in quite some time. We’ll get to Western Michigan’s win over Ohio below, but Kent State and Akron played an all-timer for the Wagon Wheel.
Kent State took a 35-17 lead early in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to four Dru DeShields touchdown passes — including a 89-yarder to big-play man Da’Realyst Clark (who also has two kick return scores and a touchdown pass) — but you don’t give up the Wagon Wheel without a fight! Akron scored, recovered a perfect, chip-shot onside kick, kicked a field goal, recovered a fumble and tied the game on a 13-yard Ben Finley-to-Israel Polk touchdown and 2-point conversion.
And then, after all that, DeShields found Ardell Banks for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime, Akron went four-and-out, and the Golden Flashes won anyway.
The win somehow kept bowl hopes alive for Kent State, which is an incredible thing to say considering the Golden Flashes went 0-12 last season with one of the worst FBS teams of the 21st century, then fired head coach Kenni Burns in mid-April. They have bounced back in a way that should encourage UMass fans, if nothing else — the Minutemen are on pace for an 0-12 record with nearly the same awful SP+ rating that Kent State had last season. At 4-6, the Golden Flashes probably won’t win their final two games to get to six wins (SP+ gives them a 7.8% chance of beating both Central Michigan and Northern Illinois), but SP+ didn’t think they would win four games either! Damn the computers! Go Flashes!
3. FCS: No. 11 Harvard 45, Penn 43. Harvard had to take this one twice. The unbeaten Crimson, darlings of the SP+ ratings, trailed 27-14 late in the first half but used a 21-0 run to take control and led 42-33 with less than four minutes remaining. But Penn charged back, scoring a short touchdown, forcing a three-and-out and taking a shocking lead on a 30-yard field goal with just 22 seconds left. That was just enough time for Jaden Craig (390 yards and 3 TDs on the day) to complete three passes and for Kieran Corr to knock in a 53-yard field goal at the buzzer.
ABSOLUTE CINEMA
KIERAN CORR DRILLS A 52-YARD FIELD GOAL TO WIN IT
📺 https://t.co/8oOFxoFh06
📻https://t.co/hEVv11DZR8
📊https://t.co/OtJ5xL5LM1#GoCrimson pic.twitter.com/J78Rwq7yKL— Harvard Football (@HarvardFootball) November 15, 2025
Harvard has now clinched a share of the Ivy League title, and while their SP+ rating fell a bit, the Crimson are still as proven as anyone in the non-North Dakota State category.
Current FCS SP+ top 10
1. North Dakota State (11-0): 34.7
2. Tarleton State (10-1): 27.0
3. Harvard (9-0): 25.8
4. Lehigh (11-0): 24.7
5. Montana State (9-2): 24.2
6. Montana (11-0): 22.3
7. North Dakota (7-4): 20.8
8. Tennessee Tech (10-1): 20.1
9. Stephen F. Austin (9-2): 20.0
10. Mercer (9-1): 20.0
There’s a 3.5-point drop-off to No. 11 Rhode Island, but at least nine teams will be able to talk themselves into a potential national title game run, at least if they don’t land on NDSU’s side of the 24-team bracket. And even with its defense struggling Saturday, Harvard is among those contenders.
4. No. 11 Oklahoma 23, No. 4 Alabama 21. South Carolina over A&M would have been a massive upset. This one was still pretty big, though. It was familiar, too.
One of my go-to measures is what I call Postgame Win Expectancy (PGWE). It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that eventually feeds into SP+ — tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, Team A could have expected to win this game X% of the time.” By PGWE, Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt last season was the least likely defeat of the season.
Against the Commodores, Bama had a comfortable success rate advantage (55.6% to 42.7%) with bigger big plays (yards per play: Bama 8.8, Vandy 5.6), fewer negative plays, more goal-to-go situations, you name it. Vandy won with perfectly timed bursts and turnovers that included a perfectly deflected pick-six into the arms of Randon Fontenette. Based on the game’s stats, Bama would have won 98.5% of the time. But with a 1.5% chance, the Commodores won. Combined with a late egg-laying at Oklahoma, it contributed to the Tide falling short of the CFP.
Against Oklahoma on Saturday, Bama produced a massive success rate advantage (46.7% to 27.5%) with fewer negative plays and, despite a massive field position disadvantage, more goal-to-go situations and the same number of red zone trips. The Tide’s PGWE against the Sooners: 95.2%. OU was going to need defensive heroics (such as an 87-yard Eli Bowen pick-six) and special teams explosions (such as a 42-yard Isaac Sategna III punt return and a tipped field goal before halftime) to win this one. Guess what they got?
Thanks to an earlier run of ranked wins, the two-loss Tide are still comfortable in this year’s playoff hunt – they’ll probably have to suffer an Iron Bowl defeat to an interim-coached Auburn team to fall out of contention (and nothing wild and unexpected has ever happened in the Iron Bowl before). But with the loss, they fall from Tier 2 to Tier 3 in my playoff tiers. In addition to the top two ACC contenders and one-loss BYU, they’re joined in Tier 3 by the team that just beat them.
CFP Tier 3 odds: Alabama 58.6%, BYU 50.2%, Oklahoma 41.7%, Virginia 41.7%, Georgia Tech 36.6%
Combined with Georgia’s comfortable win over Texas, Bama’s SEC title odds took a bit of a hit too.
SEC title odds, per SP+: Georgia 33.0%, Texas A&M 31.5%, Alabama 30.0%, Ole Miss 5.4%
I’m guessing Bama fans have seen their team win enough SEC titles through the years to get a little spoiled – they’re probably more interested in CFP odds. Still, this remains an interesting race.
5. Division II: Lenoir-Rhyne 48, Catawba 46. On a beautiful, 67-degree fall day in Hickory, North Carolina, 4,987 fans saw the home team blow an enormous lead and win anyway. Lenoir-Rhyne went up 42-12 with 4:29 left in the third quarter, then watched Catawba unleash a 34-0 run over the following 18 minutes. Amari McArthur’s 87-yard catch and run (!) made it 46-42 Catawba with 1:14 left, but Khamoni Robinson completed four passes, then charged 13 yards into the end zone with six seconds remaining.
𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙜𝙖𝙢𝙚💰
🐻🏈#GOBEARS | #BetweenTheBricks | #W1N pic.twitter.com/pyn3nE1dRv
— Lenoir-Rhyne Football (@LRBearsFootball) November 15, 2025
6. No. 16 Georgia Tech 36, Boston College 34. After last week’s chaos, Georgia Tech and Virginia entered Week 12 atop the ACC hierarchy. Virginia played maybe its best game of the year in a surprisingly easy 34-17 win over Duke in Durham, but Tech thought long and hard about going ker-splat in this one.
BC, which played good ball in losses to Louisville and Notre Dame before face-planting last week against SMU, brought its A-game back in this one. Despite yet another ridiculous day from Tech’s Haynes King — 371 passing yards, 61 non-sack rushing yards — the Yellow Jackets found themselves trailing 28-17 heading into the fourth quarter. Jordan Allen‘s 54-yard score gave Tech the lead, but Turbo Richard responded with a 43-yard burst to make it 34-33 Eagles. BC missed the 2-point conversion, however, and that loomed large when King drove the Jackets 68 yards in four minutes and set up Aidan Birr’s chip-shot field goal for the win.
Virginia and Georgia Tech boast the best title odds at the moment, but both still have work to do.
ACC title odds, per SP+: Virginia 41.3%, Georgia Tech 27.1%, SMU 17.2%, Miami 6.1%, Pitt 5.2%, Duke 3.0%
Virginia, 6-1 in conference play, can clinch a spot in the ACC championship game with a rivalry win over Virginia Tech in two weeks (projected win probability, per SP+: 88%), while 6-1 Tech has a trickier game against Pitt next week (55%). Pitt, 5-1, likely has to beat both Georgia Tech and Miami (15%) to have a shot, and SMU, 5-1 without playing either Virginia or GT, has to beat Louisville and Cal (44%) to remain in the mix. Miami lurks at 4-2 — the Hurricanes don’t have a great shot of sneaking in, but they’ll be the favorites if they get to Charlotte.
7. Division III: Merchant Marine 39, Coast Guard 38. “College GameDay” at Pitt was pretty fun, but if I were in charge of locations — and it’s probably good that I’m not! — I would have sent Rece and the guys to … Fenway Park. That’s where the 8,966 in attendance for the Secretaries’ Cup saw maybe the most back-and-forth game of the weekend. Neither team led by more than five in the second half, and after Harrison Hensley gave Coast Guard the lead with 6:52 remaining, Merchant Marine quarterback Bubba Mustain scored from 7 yards out with just 20 seconds left to give the Mariners the win.
Mustain on the day: 46 carries for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 6-for-8 passing for 150 yards and another 2 scores. Goodness! Give him an honorary 10 points in my Heisman of the Week section below.
8. No. 18 Michigan 24, Northwestern 22. This one changed in a blink. Jordan Marshall scored with 41 seconds left in the third quarter to give Michigan a 21-9 lead, and Northwestern’s offense, which gained 181 yards in three quarters, didn’t seem capable of a comeback. But Preston Stone capped a 75-yard drive with a short touchdown, and Braden Turner returned an interception to Michigan’s 6. Caleb Komolafe gave the Wildcats a sudden lead, and Michigan turned the ball over on its next two possessions as well. But the Wolverines got one last shot and took advantage. Bryce Underwood completed a third-down pass to Andrew Marsh, then ran for another first down, and Dominic Zvada‘s 31-yard field goal at the buzzer saved the day.
Michigan’s playoff odds aren’t great because the Wolverines will almost certainly need to beat top-ranked Ohio State again to get there — as if that could ever happen — but they’re still alive, and they’re still part of …
CFP Tier 4 odds: Utah 29.9%, USC 17.8%, Miami 15.5%, Vanderbilt 13.8%, SMU 10.0%, Michigan 7.6%. (Technically Pitt still has a chance at 3.9% too.)
At most, only one team will likely get in from this tier, and with only games against Kansas State and Kansas remaining (odds of winning both, per SP+: 68%), Utah is in solid shape even (or especially?) if the Utes miss the Big 12 championship game. But USC, Miami and Michigan all remain in the hunt, and both the Trojans and Wolverines had to pull off comebacks Saturday.
9. Division II: Tiffin 23, No. 8 Findlay 21. It wasn’t the most prolific game of the day, but Tiffin and Findlay managed to pack in eight lead changes, including five in the second half and two in the last minute. Findlay appeared to have kept its unbeaten record intact with a Jayden Farmer touchdown with 53 seconds remaining but despite getting pinned at its 6-yard line after a penalty on the ensuing kickoff, Tiffin drove 94 yards in nine plays, and on the final play of the game Alex Johnson found Jaedyn McKinstry for a 13-yard, game-winning score.
DRAGONS WIN ON THE FINAL PLAY OF THE GAME 😱🐲
📺: https://t.co/ye3taPbWn6#G_MACfb | @GreatMidwestAC | @TUDragonFB pic.twitter.com/Yc4EhiexuE
— FloCollege | Football (@FloCollegeFB) November 15, 2025
10. UNLV 29, Utah State 26 (2OT). Oof. With a chance to secure bowl eligibility, Utah State set up a 44-yard field goal for Tanner Rinker at the buzzer in regulation, but he missed it. And after UNLV missed a field goal itself in overtime, Rinker got a look at a 41-yarder for the win. Missed it too. He finally knocked one in to start the second OT, but UNLV’s Kayden McGee raced 25 yards on the next snap, and UNLV moved to 8-2. The Rebels have an excellent chance of finishing with double-digit wins for the second time in three years (and only the third time in 50).
11 and 12. East Carolina 31, Memphis 27; Navy 41, No. 24 South Florida 38.
Make it three one-score losses for Memphis in 2025. On Senior Day in Greenville, the Tigers led at halftime thanks in part to an 84-yard Sutton Smith touchdown run, but Katin Houser and Payton Mangrum connected for a 31-yard score with 1:08 left, and Mike Wright Jr. picked off Brendon Lewis‘ last-second heave to secure the win and move ECU to 5-1 in American Conference play and keep its slight conference title hopes alive.
Earlier Saturday, Navy took an early lead on USF and somehow made it hold up. The Midshipmen rushed for 338 yards and led 14-3 after one quarter, and while USF cut the deficit to one score on five occasions, the Midshipmen responded with a score of their own four times and recovered a late onside kick to finish off the upset.
USF’s loss was an eliminator in the race for the Group of 5’s playoff race, which, according to the combined playoff odds used above, basically give the Sun Belt’s James Madison the best shot of reaching the CFP.
CFP Tier (Group of) 5 odds: James Madison 40.3%, North Texas 30.4%, Tulane 10.8%
The American Conference still has the best chance of producing the CFP’s representative, be it North Texas, Tulane or a longer shot, but JMU is the single most likely team.
13. Clemson 20, No. 20 Louisville 19. Clemson fumbled the ball on third-and-goal from the 1, recovered it, then fumbled again on fourth down. Louisville committed three fourth-quarter personal fouls (it felt like about 12) and missed a potential go-ahead field goal. Clemson muffed a punt snap. Louisville missed another field goal.
I guess games don’t always have to be good to be good. This one was tense, gripping and all sorts of sloppy — as sloppy as the win probability chart, in fact.
With the loss, Louisville no longer has a role to play in the ACC race.
14. Arizona State 25, West Virginia 23. Still hoping to snag bowl eligibility at 4-6, West Virginia did so many things right in this one. The Mountaineers limited ASU quarterback Jeff Sims to 81 rushing yards — he had 228 his last time out — and scored on second-half touchdown passes of 75 yards (from Scotty Fox Jr. to Jeff Weimer) and 90 yards (Fox to Cyncir Bowers) to take a 23-22 lead into the final minutes. But Jesus Gomez‘s 49-yard field goal gave ASU a 2-point advantage, and Fox was out of magic. He was picked off by Keith Abney II near midfield. Ballgame.
15. FCS: Valparaiso 32, Stetson 31 (OT). You know how coaches will sometimes talk about having one 2-point play they’re particularly confident in? Valpo came up with a pretty good solution for that: Make every 2-point play your best! Down 24-0 late in the third quarter, the Beacons surged back with three touchdowns and three 2-pointers — the last of which came with just one second left in regulation — and when they got the ball second in OT and scored to get within a point, what did they do? Go for two and make it, of course!
A look at how the comeback W finished. @valpoufootball x #GoValpo pic.twitter.com/oB1xaW3ncD
— Valpo Athletics (@valpoathletics) November 16, 2025
16. Division III: No. 25 Franklin & Marshall 29, No. 3 Johns Hopkins 28. What’s better than beating a mighty rival to secure your first-ever Division III playoff berth? Doing it in overtime after coming back from 21 points down!
FB | CHAMPIONS @FandMFootball are your 2025 Centennial Conference Football Champions‼️
The Diplomats outlast Johns Hopkins 29-28 in an OT thriller to claim their first #CCfb title since 2017. #CentConf #d3fb pic.twitter.com/rc23uDK22v
— CentennialConference (@CentennialConf) November 15, 2025
November is peak “players storm the end zone in celebration after an historic touchdown” month. Love it.
17. Western Michigan 17, Ohio 13. This game was a little more controlled than Kent State-Akron, but this Tuesday nighter was just as tense and more important in the MAC standings. Every score gave a team the lead, and Ohio finished a 17-play, 10-minute drive with a short Sieh Bangura touchdown to build a 13-10 advantage early in the fourth quarter. Just three plays later, following a 71-yard catch and run by Tailique Williams, Jalen Buckley scored to make it 17-13. Three stops later, WMU was in sole possession of first place in the MAC. The Broncos are 5-1 with five teams tied at 4-2.
18. Sam Houston 26, Delaware 23. Sam Houston went on a 26-0 run to seize control, but Delaware scored two touchdowns and recovered an onside kick. But Nate Reed‘s late 36-yard field goal attempt failed. SHSU has won two in a row after an 0-8 start.
19. No. 17 USC 26, No. 21 Iowa 21. First half: Iowa averages 6.8 yards per play while building a 21-10 halftime lead. Second half: The Hawkeyes go scoreless with a turnover and turnover on downs, and Jayden Maiava leads the Trojans to a comeback win that saves their CFP hopes (and sends “College GameDay” back to Eugene for this week’s USC-Oregon game).
20. Division II: No. 6 Central Washington 19, No. 24 Western Oregon 17. Down 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter, CWU scored twice to get within four points, and with the Lone Star Conference title on the line, Kennedy McGill found Logan Brady for a 13-yard score as time expired.
21. Division II: West Liberty 68, Wheeling 67. The most ridiculous track meet of the day was in West Liberty, West Virginia. The game began with a 100-yard kick return score and never calmed down for a second. WLU’s Hunter Patterson had a 62-yard TD catch and a 68-yard TD run in the third quarter alone, and after Wheeling erased a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to take the lead, Osama Hurst caught a short touchdown with eight seconds left for the win.
22. Division II: West Texas A&M 45, Angelo State 44. West Texas A&M told WLU, “Game-winning score with eight seconds left? We can cut two seconds off of that!” Angelo State led 37-17 in the third quarter, but the Rams scored 28 points in the final 20 minutes, and Zach Phipps caught the game-winner with six seconds remaining. Division II has been ridiculously fun the last couple of weeks. Can’t wait for the playoffs.
23. FCS: No. 22 South Dakota 53, No. 23 Southern Illinois 51 (5OT). Can I interest you in a five-overtime marathon with playoff stakes? South Dakota moved to 8-4, but it took forever. The Yotes had to erase a 31-14 third-quarter deficit, then watch SIU send the game to OT with a late field goal. But Larenzo Fenner‘s two-point catch in the fifth OT made the difference.
24. NAIA: No. 20 Georgetown College 34, No. 10 Campbellsville 32. Trailing 34-13 with nine minutes remaining, Campbellsville scored three times, but Jett Engle’s 2-point conversion pass with 26 seconds remaining failed. Georgetown needed this one to keep NAIA playoff hopes alive and juuuuuust barely got it.
25. FCS: Elon 31, Campbell 24. We end with one more smaller-school finish. Elon watched a 17-3 halftime lead turn into a 24-17 fourth-quarter deficit, but Landen Clark‘s 19-yard scramble on fourth-and-8 tied the game with 2:50 left. The Phoenix got the ball back at their 5 with about a minute left — play for overtime, right? Nope! Go deep to Isaiah Fuhrmann instead!
*96 Yards. #PhoenixRising | #AED pic.twitter.com/6b3TwwcSZZ
— Elon Football (@ElonFootball) November 16, 2025
I’d say that silenced the home crowd.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Nevada: up 4.6 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 128th to 121st)
Texas Tech: up 3.6 points (from fourth to third)
UConn: up 3.2 points (from 58th to 47th)
Texas State: up 3.0 points (from 98th to 80th)
Virginia: up 3.0 points (from 43rd to 34th)
It’s hard for a team near the top of the ratings to gain a ton of points this late in the year, but Texas Tech’s performance against UCF was so resounding that the Red Raiders nearly rose more than anyone else this week.
Here are some of the key stats if we filter out garbage time:
Yards per play: Tech 8.6 (41 snaps), UCF 2.1 (34 snaps)
Success rate: Tech 68.3%, UCF 23.5%
Yards per successful play: Tech 12.0, UCF 6.8
Pct. of plays gaining 20+ yards: Tech 12.2%, UCF 0.0%
Pct. of plays gaining zero or fewer: Tech 19.5%, UCF 38.2%
Red zone trips: Tech 7, UCF 1
Red zone TD rate: Tech 57.1%, UCF 0.0%
UCF’s one decent non-garbage time drive ended in a David Bailey sack of Tayven Jackson on fourth down. The Red Raiders did whatever they wanted. They probably aren’t as good as Ohio State — I’m resigning myself to the Buckeyes being a hefty title favorite at this point — but I’d put them on even ground, at worst, against anyone else in the country.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Louisiana Tech: down 3.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 69th to 76th)
Southern Miss: down 3.3 points (from 73rd to 86th)
NC State: down 3.0 (from 57th to 68th)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 55th to 67th)
Purdue: down 2.9 points (from 84th to 96th)
It’s my own fault, I realize, but with the way quarterback CJ Bailey had been playing, I thought NC State might be able to make Miami sweat a little bit Saturday. I knew the Wolfpack defense would probably get hit pretty hard, but I thought it was fair to assume Bailey would manage to throw for more than 120 yards (with two picks) or Hollywood Smothers would manage more than minus-2 yards in seven carries in a 41-7 loss. Complete domination by Miami, complete implosion by the Pack.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (25 carries for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against Mississippi State).
2. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss (28 carries for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida).
3. Dante Moore, Oregon (27-for-30 passing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 16 non-sack rushing yards against Minnesota).
4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (22-for-24 passing for 299 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).
5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (24-for-29 passing for 229 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 33 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Texas).
6. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (26-for-34 passing for 371 yards and a touchdown, plus 61 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
7. OJ Arnold, Georgia Southern (21 carries for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 53 receiving yards and a touchdown against Coastal Carolina).
8. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (22-for-39 passing for 439 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 31 non-sack rushing yards against South Carolina).
9. Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (27 carries for 189 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 21 receiving yards against UAB).
10. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, Marshall (22-for-27 passing for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards against Georgia State).
One of my favorite things early in the season was the prominence of YAC, yards after contact, and the way it was driving some early-season success. Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy was at the center of that and generated some momentary Heisman buzz before an October funk — three games, 207 total rushing yards, 3.7 per carry — put an end to that. But after a 109-yard performance in a loss against Texas A&M last week, Hardy put together his hardest-running performance of the season Saturday night.
THE CUT BACK & HE CAN’T BEAT. ‼️
AHMAD HARDY 72-YD TD@MizzouFootball x 📺 @SECNetwork pic.twitter.com/lGaKVc2dCr
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) November 16, 2025
Meanwhile, the guy he more or less replaced in the Mizzou lineup — sophomore Kewan Lacy, who transferred to Ole Miss last winter — had himself quite the evening as well, allowing the Rebels to control the ball and avoid an upset in a funky game against Florida.
Hardy and Lacy managed to overshadow some pretty awesome passing performances from Big Ten QBs Mendoza and Moore (who went a combined 49-for-54) and a pair of Georgia-based QBs (Stockton and King) who should put on a heck of a show against each other in a couple of weeks. And I even had to squeeze Marcel Reed onto the list despite his playing the worst first half of his life against South Carolina. Throwing for 298 yards in the second half can cure a lot of ailments; more guys should try that.
Honorable mention:
• Kaytron Allen, Penn State (25 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 receiving yards against Michigan State).
• Bear Bachmeier, BYU (23-for-33 passing for 296 yards and a touchdown, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against TCU).
• Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (23 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 receiving yards against Pitt).
• Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass breakup and a pick-six against Buffalo).
• Andrew Marsh, Michigan (12 catches for 189 yards against Northwestern).
• Toriano Pride Jr., Missouri (three tackles, 1.5 TFLs, a pick-six, a 62-yard fumble return and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Jordon Simmons, Georgia State (19 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown, plus 64 receiving yards against Marshall).
• Marcel Williams, Akron (14 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kent State).
Through 12 weeks, here are your points leaders, once again with ties broken by total points from the last four weeks:
1. Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 29 points (13 in the last four weeks)
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama: 29 points (zero)
3. Taylen Green, Arkansas: 27 points
4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: 26 points
5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 25 points (10 in the last four weeks)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia: 25 points (six)
7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 24 points
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington: 21 points
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech: 18 points
10. Luke Altmyer, Illinois: 16 points
Sayin took the lead in the points race last week but had a pretty forgettable evening against UCLA, allowing for Mendoza and Stockton to make up ground.
Of course, this race isn’t in charge of who gets the Heisman, and if conventional wisdom is any indication, it’s Sayin (+225 Heisman odds, per ESPN BET) who must make up ground on Mendoza (-125). I wrote last week that I’m not really a fan of that — Mendoza charged ahead after barely beating a Penn State team Sayin had just torched the week before — but barring some last-minute chaos (something the Big Ten doesn’t seem interested in producing), we’ll get a Sayin-Mendoza showdown in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game, and potentially the Heisman, in three more weeks. That could make the choice pretty easy, one way or the other.
The midweek playlist
Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Wednesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). You should always watch MACtion just in case; lord knows I wasn’t telling you to watch Kent State-Akron last week, but you missed out if you didn’t. But the most important game of this week’s batch is in Buffalo, where two of five teams with two conference losses face off. (You should definitely dual-screen that one with Central Michigan-Kent State — the Golden Flashes still have a slight chance of reaching bowl eligibility, though CMU is hot.)
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