Midseason grades for all 30 MLB teams: ‘A’ is for Astros, ‘F’ is for …?
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David Schoenfield
We’re past due to hand out some midseason grades, so let’s hand out some midseason grades.
As we pass the 90-game mark in the 2025 MLB season, my team of the first half isn’t the well-rounded Detroit Tigers, who do get our highest grade for owning MLB’s best record, or the explosive Chicago Cubs or Shohei Ohtani‘s Los Angeles Dodgers, but a team most baseball fans love to hate: the Houston Astros. They lost their two best players from last season and their best hitter has been injured — and they’re playing their best baseball since they won the 2022 World Series.
Let’s get to the grades. As always, we’re grading off preseason expectations, factoring in win-loss record and quality of performance, while looking at other positive performances and injuries.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and in the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game’s top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
I heard someone refer to them as the Zombie Astros, which feels apropos. Alex Bregman left as a free agent, they traded Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez has been injured and has just three home runs, and the Jose Altuve experiment in left field predictably fizzled.
But here they are, fighting for the best record in the majors and holding a comfortable lead in the AL West. They’re getting star turns from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena, while the risky decision to start Cam Smith in the majors with very little minor league experience has paid off, as he has now become their cleanup hitter.
If we ignore the COVID-19 season, the Astros look on their way to an eighth straight division title.
This could be at least a half-grade higher based on everything that has gone right: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s attention-grabbing breakout, Tucker doing everything expected after the big trade, Seiya Suzuki‘s monster power numbers and Matthew Boyd‘s All-Star turn in the rotation. The Cubs are on pace for their most wins since their World Series title season in 2016.
There have been a few hiccups, however, especially in the rotation with Justin Steele‘s season-ending injury and Ben Brown‘s inconsistency, plus rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has scuffled, and the bench has been weak aside from their backup catchers.
Still, this is a powerhouse lineup, and the Cubs will seek to improve their rotation at the deadline.
They just keep winning of late, going from 25-27 and seven games behind the Yankees on May 25 to taking over first place from the slumping Bronx Bombers, a remarkable turnaround over just 36 games. They went 27-9 over a 36-game stretch ending with their eighth win in a row on Sunday.
George Springer‘s recent surge has been fun to watch, a reminder of how good he was at his peak, and Addison Barger has been mashing over the past two months.
Some of the stats don’t add up to the Blue Jays being this good — they’ve barely outscored their opponents — but there might be more offense in the tank from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a healthy Anthony Santander, and the bullpen, a soft spot, is the easiest area to upgrade.
Their success is best summed up by the fact that Freddy Peralta is their lone All-Star, but they have a whole bunch of players who have contributed between 1 and 2 WAR.
Brandon Woodruff looked good Sunday in his first start in nearly two years, so that could be a huge boost for the second half.
I’m curious to see how Jackson Chourio performs as well. While his counting stats — extra-base hits, RBIs — are fine, his triple-slash line remains below last season, especially his OBP. He had a huge second half in 2024 (.310/.363/.552), and if he does that again, the Brewers could find themselves back in the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
The Rays started off slow, with a losing record through the end of April, but then went 33-22 in May and June to claw back into the AL East race — as the Rays usually do, last year being the recent exception.
Two key performers have been All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, who has a chance to become just the third player to hit 40 home runs in his age-21 season, and All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Due to the league wanting the Rays to play more home games early in the season, the July and August slate will be very road-heavy, so we’ll see how the Rays adapt to a difficult two-month stretch, especially since their pitching isn’t quite as deep as it has been in other seasons.
No, they’re not going to be the greatest team of all time. But they might win 100 games — even though Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, their huge offseason acquisitions, have combined for just two wins in 10 starts.
The lineup, of course, has been terrific, with Ohtani leading the NL in several categories and Will Smith leading the batting race. By wRC+, it’s been the best offense in Dodgers history.
If they can get some combo of Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow healthy, plus Ohtani eventually ramped up to a bigger workload on the mound, the Dodgers still loom as World Series favorites.
They are on pace for 95 wins, mainly on the strength of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, who are a combined 23-7 with 11.8 WAR. Jesus Luzardo‘s ERA is bloated due to that two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs, but he has otherwise been solid as well.
But, overall, it hasn’t always been the smoothest of treks. The bullpen has imploded a few times and the offense has lacked power aside from Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper is back after missing three weeks, and they need to get his bat going. Look for some bullpen additions at the trade deadline — and perhaps an outfielder as well.
The Cardinals have been a minor surprise — perhaps even to the Cardinals themselves. St. Louis was viewing this as a rebuilding year of sorts — not that the Cardinals ever hit rock bottom and start completely over. They had a hot May, winning 12 of 13 at one point, but the offense has been fading of late, with those three straight shutout losses to Pittsburgh and six shutout losses since June 25.
The starting rotation doesn’t generate a lot of swing and miss, with both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas seeing their ERAs starting to climb. Brendan Donovan is the team’s only All-Star rep, and that kind of sums up this team: solid but without any star power. That might foretell a second-half fade.
All-Star starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, plus a dominant bullpen, have led the way, although after starting 12-4, the Giants have basically been a .500 team for close to three months now. Rafael Devers hasn’t yet ignited the offense since coming over from Boston, and the Giants have lost four 1-0 games.
These final three games at home against the Dodgers before the All-Star break will be a crucial series, as Los Angeles has slowly pulled away in the NL West.
This was an “A-plus” through June 12, when the Mets were 45-24 and owned the best record in baseball, even though Juan Soto hadn’t gotten hot. Soto finally got going in June, but the pitching collapsed, and the Mets went through a disastrous 1-10 stretch.
The rotation injuries have piled up, exacerbating the lack of bullpen depth. Recent games have been started by Justin Hagenman (who had a 6.21 ERA in Triple-A), journeyman reliever Chris Devenski, Paul Blackburn (7.71 ERA) and Frankie Montas, who has had to start even though he’s clearly not throwing the ball well. The Mets need to get the rotation healthy, but also could use more offense from Mark Vientos and their catchers (Francisco Alvarez was demoted to Triple-A).
At times it has felt like Cal Raleigh has been a one-man team with his record-breaking first half. But he will be joined on the All-Star squad by starting pitcher Bryan Woo, closer Andres Munoz and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who made it on the strength of his defense, as his offense has been a disappointment.
The offense has been one of the best in the majors on the road, but the rotation has been nowhere near as effective as the past couple of seasons, with George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missing time with injuries. They just shut out the Pirates three games in a row, so maybe that will get the rotation on a roll.
They’re just out of the wild-card picture while hanging around .500, so we give them a decent grade since that exceeds preseason expectations. It feels like a little bit of a mirage given their run differential — their record in one-run games (good) versus their record in blowout games (not good) — and various holes across the lineup and pitching staff.
But they’ve done two things to keep them in the race. One, they hit a lot of home runs. Two, they’re the only team in the majors to use just five starting pitchers. The rotation hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been stable.
The Padres are probably fortunate to be where they are, given some of their issues. As expected, the offensive depth has been a problem.
Not as expected, Dylan Cease has struggled while Michael King‘s injury after a strong start has left them without last year’s dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (although Nick Pivetta has been one of the best signings of the offseason). Yu Darvish just made his season debut Monday, so hopefully he’ll provide a lift.
The Padres haven’t played well against the better teams, including a 2-5 record against the Dodgers, but they did clean up against the Athletics, Rockies and Pirates, going 16-2 against those three teams.
For now, the Reds are stuck in neutral. Leave out 2022, when they lost 100 games, and it’s otherwise been a string of .500-ish seasons: 31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021, 82-80 in 2023, 77-85 in 2024 and now a similar record so far in 2025.
The hope was that Terry Francona would be a difference-maker. Maybe that will play out down the stretch, but the best hope is to get the rotation clicking on all cylinders at the same time. That means Andrew Abbott continuing his breakout performance, plus getting Hunter Greene healthy again and rookie Chase Burns to live up to the hype after a couple of shaky outings following an impressive MLB debut.
Throw in Nick Lodolo and solid Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and this group can be good enough to pitch the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance since 2013.
The Yankees have hit their annual midseason swoon — which has been subject to much intense analysis from their disgruntled fans — and that opening weekend sweep of the Brewers, when the Yankees’ torpedo bats were the big story in baseball, now seems long ago.
Going from seven up to three back in such a short time is a disaster — but not disastrous. Nonetheless, the Yankees will have to do some hard-core self-evaluation heading to the trade deadline.
The offense wasn’t going to be as good as it was in April, when Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice were all playing over their heads. So, do they need a hitter? Or with Clarke Schmidt now likely joining Gerrit Cole as a Tommy John casualty, do they need a starting pitcher? Or both?
From the book of “things we didn’t expect,” page 547: The Marlins are averaging more runs per game than the Orioles, Padres, Braves and Rangers, to name a few teams. They’re averaging almost as many runs per game as the Mets, and last time we checked, the Marlins weren’t the team to give Soto $765 million.
An eight-game winning streak at the end of June has the Marlins going toe-to-toe with the Braves for third place in the NL East even though the starting rotation has been a mess, with Sandy Alcantara on track to become just the fourth qualified pitcher with an ERA over 7.00.
Heading into the season, I thought that if any team was going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, it would be the Diamondbacks. The offense has once again been one of the best in the majors, but the pitching issues have been painful.
After the aggressive move to sign Corbin Burnes, he went down with Tommy John surgery after 11 starts. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt each have an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. Rodriguez was better in June before a shellacking on July 4, while Gallen remains homer-prone, so it’s hard to tell if improvement is on the horizon. Their playoff odds are hovering just under 20%, so there’s a chance, but they need to get red-hot like they did last July and August.
It feels like it has been more soap opera than baseball season in Boston, with the Devers drama finally ending with the shocking trade with the Giants.
If you give added weight that this is the Red Sox, a team that should be operating with the big boys in both budget and aspirations and instead seemed to only want to dump Devers’ contract, then feel free to lower this grade a couple of notches, even if the Red Sox are close in the wild-card standings.
On the field, the heralded rookie trio of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer hasn’t exactly clicked, with Campbell returning to the minors after posting a .902 OPS in April. A big test will come out of the All-Star break, when they play the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins and Astros in a tough 15-game stretch.
After last season’s surprise playoff appearance, it’s been a frustrating 2025 — although I’m not sure this result is necessarily a surprise.
There were concerns about the offense heading into the season and those concerns have proven correct. They were getting no production from their outfield, so they rushed Jac Caglianone to the majors to much hype, but he has struggled and might need a reset back in Triple-A. Even Bobby Witt Jr., as good as he has been (on pace for 7.5 WAR), has seen his OPS drop 140 points.
On the bright side, Kris Bubic emerged as an All-Star starter and Noah Cameron has filled in nicely for the injured Cole Ragans, so maybe they trade a starter for some offense.
Coming off a catastrophic 2024 season, nobody was expecting anything from the White Sox. Indeed, another 121-loss season loomed as a possibility. While they’re on pace to lose 100 again, they’ve at least played more competitive baseball thanks to their pitching.
Rookie starters Shane Smith and Sean Burke have shown promise, while rookie position players Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and now Colson Montgomery are getting their initial taste of the majors.
There has been the mix of calamity: Luis Robert Jr. has been unproductive and is probably now untradable, and former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn hit .189 and was traded to the Brewers.
The Twins are one organization that might like a do-over of the past five seasons. It feels like they’ve had the most talent in the division, but all they’ve done is squeeze out one soft division title in 2023. Now, the Tigers have passed them in talent and other factors, such as payroll flexibility.
There’s still time for the Twins to turn things around in 2025, but outside of that wonderful 13-game winning streak, they haven’t played winning baseball.
Overall, it’s been yet another bad season, despite Paul Skenes‘ brilliance. Really, do we talk enough about him? Yes, we do talk about him, but he has a 1.95 ERA through his first 42 career starts. Incredible.
Here’s an amazing thing about baseball. The Pirates are not a good team, but they recently put together one of the best six-game stretches in history. That’s not stretching the description. First, they swept the Mets — a good team — by scores of 9-1, 9-2 and 12-1. Then they swept the Cardinals — a good team — with three shutouts, 7-0, 1-0 and 5-0. They became the first team since at least 1901 to score 43 runs or more and allow four runs or fewer in a six-game stretch. And then they promptly got shut out three games in a row, making them the first to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight shutouts.
Eighteen of our 28 voters picked them to win the AL West before the season, but it’s looking more and more like the 2023 World Series might be a stone-cold fluke in the middle of a string of losing seasons. That year, nearly everyone in the lineup had a career year at the plate, and the pitching got hot at the right time.
This year’s Rangers, though, have struggled to score runs, and while some have pointed to the offensive environment at Globe Life Field, they’re near the bottom in road OPS as well. It’s been fun seeing Jacob deGrom back at a dominating level, and Nathan Eovaldi should have been an All-Star.
Put it this way: If the Rangers can somehow squeeze into the postseason, you don’t want to face the Rangers in a short series. Indeed, if any team looms as an October upset special, it might be the Rangers.
The Nationals received superlative first-half performances from James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, while CJ Abrams is on the way to his best season. But there remains a lack of overall organizational progress, which finally led to the firings on Sunday of longtime GM Mike Rizzo and longtime manager Dave Martinez. A 7-19 record in June sealed their fate, as the rotation has been bad and the bullpen arguably the worst in baseball.
Until the Nationals figure out how to improve their pitching — or, better yet, find an owner who wants to win — they will be stuck going nowhere.
That fell apart in a hurry. Sunday’s loss was Cleveland’s 10th in a row, a stretch that remarkably included five shutouts. Indeed, the Guardians have now been shut out 11 times; the franchise record in the post-dead-ball-era (since 1920) is 20 shutouts in 1968.
There’s nothing worse than watching a team that can’t score runs, so that tells you how exciting the Guardians have been. Last year, the Guardians hit exceptionally well with runners in scoring position, keeping afloat what was otherwise a mediocre offense. That hasn’t happened in 2025 (trading Josh Naylor didn’t help either). Throw in some predictable regression from the bullpen, and this season looks lost.
We can’t give this a complete failing grade due to the emergence of All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson (the Athletics’ first All-Star starter since Josh Donaldson in 2014) and slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who have a chance to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, we have Denzel Clarke‘s circus catches in center field.
But otherwise? Ugh. The Sacramento gamble already looks like a disaster, three months into a three-year stay. The team is drawing well below Sutter Health Park’s 14,000-seat capacity, with many recent games drawing under 10,000 fans. Luis Severino bashed the small crowds and the lack of air-conditioning.
The A’s had a groundbreaking ceremony for their new park in Vegas, renting heavy construction equipment as background props. Maybe they should have spent that money on more pitching help.
Based on preseason expectations, the Braves have clearly been the biggest disappointment in the National League — fighting the Orioles for most disappointing overall.
What’s gone wrong? They haven’t scored runs, as the offense continues its remarkable fade from a record-setting performance just two seasons ago. The collapses of Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies lead the way, with lack of production at shortstop and left field playing a big role as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, and the team is 11-22 in one-run games. Spencer Strider hasn’t yet reached his pre-injury level and Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before going down.
The Braves haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017, but that run is clearly in jeopardy.
The Orioles have a similar record to the Braves but have played much worse, including losses of 24-2, 19-5, 15-3 and two separate 9-0 shutouts.
They will spend the trade deadline dealing away as many of their impending free agents as possible, and then do a lot of soul-searching heading into the offseason. After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, will this season just be a blip? While the pitching struggles aren’t necessarily a big surprise, what has happened to the offense? Are some of their young players prospects or suspects?
After two months of Cleveland Spiders-level baseball, it would be easy to make fun of the Rockies. Especially since they recently announced Walker Monfort — son of the owner — was promoted to executive VP and will replace outgoing president and COO Greg Feasel.
On the other hand, the Rockies are doing something right: They just drew 121,000 for a three-game series against the White Sox.
Week 1 is finally here and there’s plenty to know about ahead of this weekend. Top 25 matchups will be played, and many freshmen will have the chance to show if they can shine under the bright lights for the first time.
All eyes will be on No. 1 Texas-No. 3 Ohio State as the Longhorns travel to the Horseshoe Saturday. What can we expect to see from Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith in Week 1? No. 9 LSU travels to No. 4 Clemson in a tough road matchup to start off the season. While Brian Kelly and LSU have yet to win a Week 1 matchup the past three seasons, will this be the game that changes that? As we look forward to a jam-packed weekend, we take a look back at some of the best quotes of the offseason.
Our reporters break down what to know entering Week 1.
Jump to:
Expectations for Arch and Jeremiah
LSU-Clemson | Freshmen to watch
Offseason quotes
Texas-Ohio State preview
What do we need to see from Arch Manning Week 1?
We can expect Manning to take some deep shots, especially to receiver Ryan Wingo, who Manning has raved about all offseason. The Longhorns weren’t great at stretching the field last season with Quinn Ewers, but whenever Manning got in, he looked to make big plays. Texas’ offensive staffers said this spring they keep reminding Manning that he just needs to keep the offense moving forward and to take the easy throws when he can, especially while breaking in four new starters on the offensive line. Similarly, Manning, who has open-field speed, has been reminded by everyone — including his grandfather, Archie, who liked to run around a little bit — to get down or get out of bounds, and not to drop his shoulder and try to run anyone over. Manning doesn’t have to be “superhuman” or “do anything that is extraordinary,” Steve Sarkisian said on Monday. But a solid performance on the road at No. 3 Ohio State to open the season would set the Longhorns on a national championship trajectory. — Dave Wilson
What can we expect from Jeremiah Smith in his sophomore debut?
Smith noted during Big Ten media days last month that with a year of experience behind him, he expects to play even faster this season. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of college football, considering Smith put together one of the greatest true freshman seasons in college football history, capped with his game-clinching reception that lifted Ohio State to a national championship. The Longhorns were one of the only teams to keep Smith in check last year, holding him to just one catch for three yards. Of course, the attention on Smith allowed Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka to thrive, combining for 12 receptions in the 28-14 Buckeyes win. Still, Smith said he has been waiting for this opportunity to face Texas again. How new quarterback Julian Sayin performs could dictate the quality of Smith’s opportunities. Either way, Smith is primed to put on a show on the big Week 1 stage. — Jake Trotter
What each team needs to capitalize on to win
LSU: Four starters from last year’s starting offensive line were selected in the 2025 NFL draft, but that doesn’t mean LSU was elite up front. The Tigers ranked last in the SEC in rushing offense and mustered just 1.5 yards before contact on dropbacks, ahead of only Vanderbilt. This year’s unit will need to improve dramatically on that clip if LSU wants to contend for a playoff berth and that starts with the opener against Clemson. Clemson’s defensive front, manned by Peter Woods and T.J. Parker, is stout, and new coordinator Tom Allen will have his sights set on making LSU one-dimensional. The key to getting the ground game going will be a youth movement in the backfield led by Caden Durham and five-star freshman Harlem Berry. — David Hale
Clemson: As Hale mentioned, Clemson needs to dominate up front — as much as that sounds like a cliché. LSU coach Brian Kelly said he planned to rotate as many as eight offensive linemen in the opener, which is a nod to team depth, but may not be conducive in the type of environment they will be playing in. Clemson is eager to show that it has vastly improved in its front seven under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who brings a far more aggressive approach with his scheme. That aggressiveness was missing a year ago, as Clemson struggled to stop the run and consistently get after the quarterback with its best pass rushers. Clemson ranked No. 85 against the run a season ago while Penn State, where Allen coached, ranked No. 9. The same can be said on offense, where a veteran offensive line must help Clemson get the ground game going. Cade Klubnik was more effective as a passer last season because the Tigers had balance in their ground game. Converted receiver Adam Randall gets the nod at running back, and true freshman Gideon Davidson is expected to play. — Andrea Adelson
Five freshmen to watch in Week 1
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan, No. 1 in 2025 ESPN 300
Underwood shook the recruiting world with his late-cycle flip from LSU to the in-state Wolverines last November. Ten months later, ESPN’s top 2025 recruit is set to be the program’s Week 1 starter when No. 14 Michigan hosts New Mexico on Saturday.
Underwood’s elite arm talent, pocket awareness and mobility has impressed the Wolverines’ coaching staff since he arrived on campus in January, as has his accelerated knowledge of the game. The young quarterback will get his first chance to flash that talent alongside fellow Michigan newcomers in running back Justice Haynes (Alabama transfer) and wide receiver Donaven McCulley (Indiana) in Week 1 before Underwood and the Wolverines stare down a much stiffer challenge against an experienced, Brent Venables-led Oklahoma defense on Sept. 6.
Elijah Griffin, DT, Georgia, No. 3 in 2025 ESPN 300
For the first time since 2021, the Bulldogs landed the state of Georgia’s top-ranked prospect in the 2025 cycle, and Griffin already appears poised to be a Day 1 contributor for the No. 5 Bulldogs.
Like many of the elite defensive line talents before him at Georgia, Griffin possesses top-end traits — speed, physicality and SEC-ready size at 6-foot-4, 310 pounds — that have had onlookers drawing comparisons to former Bulldog Jalen Carter throughout the spring and summer. Griffin’s maturity and ability to pick up the defense has also stood out as he vies for snaps along a revamped Georgia defensive line that returns multiple starters from a year ago. Whether or not he starts against Marshall on Saturday, Griffin is expected to play early and often in a significant role within coordinator Glenn Schumann’s defense this fall.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon, No. 4 in 2025 ESPN 300
Moore has been one of the nation’s most productive high school playmakers in recent seasons, and his elite speed and playmaking talent are expected to earn him early opportunities this fall as he steps into an unsettled Ducks wide receiver group.
Missing top 2024 pass catchers Tez Johnson (NFL), Traeshon Holden (NFL) and Evan Stewart (injury), No. 7 Oregon is screaming for fresh downfield producers in 2025. The Ducks have plenty of experienced options between Florida State transfer Malik Benson and returners Justius Lowe, Gary Bryant Jr. and Kyler Kasper, but none offer the brand of electricity Moore presents. One of ESPN’s highest-rated wide receiver prospects since 2006, Moore should be an asset for first-year starting quarterback Dante Moore as soon as Oregon takes the field against Montana State on Saturday.
Demetres Samuel Jr., DB/WR, Syracuse, No. 223 in 2025 ESPN 300
Samuel reclassified into the 2025 class to enter college a year early. At just 17 years old, the 6-1, 195-pound freshman is set to feature prominently for the Orange this fall starting with Syracuse’s Week 1 matchup with No. 24 Tennessee on Saturday in Atlanta.
A speedy tackler from Palm Bay, Florida, Samuel has legit two-way potential, and the Orange intends to make the most of it in 2025. Syracuse coach Fran Brown announced earlier this month that Samuel will start at cornerback against Tennessee while also taking snaps at wide receiver, where the Orange are replacing their top two pass catchers from a year ago. With Travis Hunter in the NFL, Samuel stands as one of the most intriguing two-way talents across college football.
Jayvan Boggs, WR, Florida State, No. 284 in 2025 ESPN 300
Boggs joins the Seminoles after hauling in 99 receptions for 2,133 yards and 24 touchdowns in a wildly productive senior season at Florida’s Cocoa High School last fall. Listed as a starter in Florida State’s Week 1 depth chart, he has an opportunity to pick up where he left off in 2025.
Boggs combines a thick build with sudden route running and knack for yards after the catch. Alongside transfers Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina), Duce Robinson (USC) and Squirrel White (Tennessee), he’s positioned to emerge as a reliable downfield option from the jump within a new group of Seminoles pass catchers around Boston College transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos, starting with Florida State’s Week 1 meeting with No. 8 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). — Eli Lederman
Notable offseason quotes
“I depend on Depends. … I’m making a joke out of it, but it is real. It is real. It is real. If you see a port-a-potty on the sideline, it is real, I’m just telling you. You’re going to see one at practice, on the sideline [in games].” — Colorado coach Deion Sanders, joking about his cancer recovery.
“But since we’re in Vegas, it seems like the right time to say it, our theme for this team is double down.” — Oregon coach Dan Lanning, on expectations coming off last year’s undefeated regular season.
“We figured we would just adopt SEC scheduling philosophy, you know? Some people don’t like it. I’m more focused on those nine conference games. Not only do we want to play nine conference games, OK, and have the [revised] playoff format [with automatic qualifiers], we want to have play-in games to decide who plays in those playoffs.” — Indiana coach Curt Cignetti on criticism of the Hoosiers’ light nonconference schedule.
“The recent NCAA ruling to not punish players that weren’t involved is correct. However, this ruling also proves that the NCAA as an enforcement arm no longer exists.” — Former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, on the sanctions against rival Michigan.
“They don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me.” — Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos to On3 in June about the opener vs. Alabama.
“I’m 21 so I can do shots at a bar.” — Texas quarterback Arch Manning, joking after being asked about how he has to carry himself in public.
“They can have their opinion. We’re going to handle all that on Aug. 30.” — Clemson DE T.J. Parker on the battle over the stadium nickname “Death Valley” between Clemson and LSU.
“I still have the [Catholics versus Convicts] shirt. I do. It’s well documented that’s as intense if not the most intense rivalry that at that time it felt like the national championship went through South Bend or Coral Gables. Intensity was high, physicality, the edge that game was played with was next level.” — Miami coach Mario Cristobal on the Notre Dame rivalry. Cristobal played in the game and will now coach in it as Miami opens vs the Irish.
“Be delusional … It means no cap on the jar, no limitations, dreaming big. With the College Football Playoff where it is, as Indiana showed last year, anybody can get there. If we’re delusional enough to know we can do that, we can get there … Take the cap off the jar. Limitless.” — Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck, speaking at Big Ten media days.
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Bill Connelly
After months of posturing and debate about playoff length and conference schedules and future collective bargaining agreements, the college football offseason has ended, and the actual games — the things we live for — have begun. More teams than usual seem capable of making national title runs, and all the predictable contenders seem to have far larger question marks than usual.
Week 1 gives us a case in point: For the first time, the No. 1 team in the preseason polls is beginning the year as an underdog. Arch Manning and top-ranked Texas will ring in the season against Ohio State in Columbus, and the host Buckeyes are 1.5-point favorites.
If history offers us parallels, they aren’t kind to the top team. In 1988, Florida State took a new starting quarterback and a preseason No. 1 ranking on the road to start the season against the defending national champion, a Miami team that had prevented the Noles from winning the title the year before. That’s almost exactly the situation Texas is facing in Columbus. The Seminoles were listed as 4-point favorites — until Saturday, the smallest advantage on record for a preseason No. 1 — but the result was a total knockout for the champs. FSU gained only 200 yards and turned the ball over six times; starter Chip Ferguson threw two picks and got benched in the third quarter.
With all due respect to Chip Ferguson, I’m guessing Manning isn’t going to get benched Saturday in Columbus. Call it a hunch. But in 2025, even No. 1 isn’t a favorite. Weird.
Texas-Ohio State is one of three top-10 headliners in an epic Week 1 that also features LSU’s Saturday night trip to Clemson and a Sunday night Notre Dame-Miami battle that conjures up memories of 1988. And there’s so much going on outside the main events! Let’s walk through everything you need to know as we brace for a huge Week 1.
All times Eastern.
Jump to a topic:
Texas-Ohio State | LSU-Clemson
Notre Dame-Miami | Bama-Florida State
Learning from blowouts | Chaos superfecta
Week 1 playlist
Buckeyes, Horns and immediate playoff stakes
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (Saturday, noon, Fox)
Ohio State and Texas make their games count. These two blue bloods have faced each other four times (2005, 2006, 2008 and 2024); all of them were battles between top-10 teams, two were three-point Texas wins, and the last one was decided by a classic Jack Sawyer scoop-and-score.
Because Texas lost to Ohio State in the very last game it played, it would typically make sense to look back at that affair. But damned if just about all of the most instrumental players from that game aren’t gone.
Ohio State is the defending national champ and might have the two best players in college football in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs. Ryan Day’s recruiting machine is almost without peer, but it’s difficult to totally trust a team with a redshirt freshman quarterback (Julian Sayin), two new coordinators (Brian Hartline on offense, Matt Patricia on defense) and massive turnover on both lines.
Led by Anthony Hill Jr., Texas might have the best linebacking corps in the country, and its running backs look strong, but the Horns also have virtually the same turnover on the lines, they are replacing four of last year’s top six passing targets, and they have a quarterback with such massive expectations that every incomplete pass he throws will seem like a disappointment.
Arch vs. nearly unprecedented hype
Arch Manning has thrown for 969 career yards and has started two games, but he enters the year as the Heisman favorite. ESPN BET lists his odds at +650, solidly ahead of Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, who have combined for 12,952 career yards. As far as favorites go, Manning’s résumé is almost as light as anything we’ve seen: Only Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, who began 2018 as the favorite after throwing for the national title-winning touchdown the season before, entered with fewer career yards (636).
Of course, Tagovailoa was awesome in 2018. If Manning matches his numbers, he’s doing well. And while we didn’t get a conclusive sample in 2024, what we saw of Manning was dynamite.
• His 87.5 QBR would have ranked third nationally if he had enough dropbacks to qualify.
• His 15.4 yards per completion would have ranked fifth.
• His 67.8% completion rate would have ranked 11th.
He did make mistakes, though. His 2.2% interception rate, stemming from a pair of picks against Louisiana-Monroe, would have ranked 42nd nationally. And his 27.3% sacks-to-pressures ratio — a general look at your ability to either escape pressure or get rid of the ball in time — would have ranked an alarming 116th. With a brand-new offensive line, he could end up taking quite a few hits this season, especially against Ohio State.
Manning starts out against Patricia, of all people. A longtime Bill Belichick protégé, Patricia hasn’t coached in college since 2003, and for that matter he hasn’t been particularly successful in any given job since 2016. When he talked about his defense this offseason, he mentioned being multiple and adaptable to what his personnel do best. When “multiple” goes wrong, it ends as a “trying to do everything, mastering nothing” situation. Still, if you’re catering to a defense’s talent, you could do worse than having linebacker Sonny Styles, corners Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr. and, of course, Downs at the back. Pass rushers Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and UNC transfer Beau Atkinson should be awfully menacing too.
Jeremiah Smith vs. hype vs. Malik Muhammad
Manning will be trying to rack up yards with an unproven receiving corps. Returnees DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo were excellent in flashes, but Moore’s 9.4% drop rate was awful, and Wingo mostly disappeared down the stretch. Most of the other options will be newcomers or redshirt freshmen.
New Ohio State starting quarterback Sayin, however, will have some pristine options. Junior Carnell Tate was probably the best No. 3 WR in the sport last season (now he’s No. 2), and Purdue transfer Max Klare has major expectations at tight end. Oh yeah, and there’s also that guy who just put together the best true freshman season of all time for a wide receiver.
Smith caught 76 balls for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns and lit the CFP on fire with 290 yards and four TDs in the first two rounds. He enters 2025 as the best player in the sport.
Of the 20 best true freshmen ever, a few got hurt and missed some games in their second year (Ron Dayne, Adrian Peterson, Derek Stingley Jr.) and a few were about the same as sophomores (Philip Rivers, Jalen Hurts, Andy Katzenmoyer, Tony Dorsett, Harold Perkins Jr.). But Hugh Green got even more sacks, Jonathan Taylor and Herschel Walker rushed for even more yards, and Luke Kuechly made even more tackles. Smith is going to be awesome this season.
Of course, I only referenced Smith’s first two playoff performances above. In his third playoff game, against these Longhorns, he caught one ball for 3 yards. He ended up serving as a decoy as Texas bracketed him and forced other receivers to beat them. For all the turnover up front, Texas still has cornerbacks Jaylon Guilbeau (a dynamite nickel who moved out wide) and Muhammad and safety Michael Taaffe in the back. If anyone can frustrate Smith in 2025, it will probably be Texas. And it will be interesting to see whether Tate, Klare and the supporting cast can give Sayin what he needs and whether Sayin has the patience to deliver a huge first-start victory.
In an era with an expanded playoff, a game like this doesn’t pack the same level of national title importance as it once would have, but it’s still going to have a ridiculous atmosphere, and it will tell us a lot about two teams with huge expectations and huge question marks. Can’t wait.
Current line: Buckeyes -1.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 6.3 | FPI projection: Horns by 0.7
An immediate ‘prove-it game’ in Death Valley East
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
If you ask me which two top-10 teams I have the most questions about heading into 2025, I will say Clemson and LSU. (If you ask me for two more, I’ll probably say Texas and Ohio State. That makes Saturday just about perfect!)
Since Trevor Lawrence left in 2021, Dabo Swinney’s Clemson teams have been solid but not elite — the Tigers have averaged 3.5 losses per season with an average SP+ ranking of 18.5. They’re first in returning production this year, however, with quarterback Cade Klubnik, a lovely receiving corps featuring Antonio Williams and high-upside sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, and future NFL D-linemen Peter Woods and T.J. Parker.
Woods and Parker couldn’t stop the Tigers from ranking 113th in yards allowed per (non-sack) carry last season, however, and with that receiving corps Klubnik still averaged only 11.8 yards per completion. He completed some big downfield shots when the Tigers trailed Texas by double digits in the first round of the CFP, but that’s an awfully small sample on which to base expectations.
New coordinator Tom Allen should coax more out of the defense, and maybe the sophomores’ explosiveness will prompt more aggressive playcalling from Garrett Riley. But Clemson was a preseason top-10 team each year from 2021 to 2023 and finished outside the top 10 each time. The Tigers must prove they deserve the benefit of the doubt. And hey, they might do just that — it’s nice to have continuity when almost no other top team does.
LSU certainly knows about struggling with expectations. Brian Kelly’s Tigers began 2023 ranked fifth and finished 12th, then started out 13th last year and ended up unranked. They’ve started 0-1 for three straight years.
Defense has been the issue for Kelly in Baton Rouge, but the Tigers took a step forward under coordinator Blake Baker last year, improving from 52nd to 34th in defensive SP+. Kelly signed a trio of transfer ends in the hopes of sprucing up the pass rush, but I really like the defensive spine: Tackles Bernard Gooden (a USF transfer) and Dominick McKinley (a blue-chip sophomore) are disruptive, and linebackers Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks are dynamite attackers if/when healthy. If the defense improves to even just a top-25 level, this is a playoff-caliber team.
It makes sense that Nussmeier and Klubnik are starting out with the same Heisman odds, as they produced incredibly similar stats last season.
Nussmeier is less likely to scramble and more likely to throw picks, but he gets the ball out quicker than Klubnik and takes fewer hits. Nussmeier lost three of last year’s top four targets, but he still has excellent slot man Aaron Anderson and high-upside transfers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky). If either of two tantalizing athletes — all-or-nothing wideout Chris Hilton Jr. or hulking blue-chip sophomore tight end Trey’Dez Green — take another step in their development, this will be a dynamite receiving corps.
We’ll see about the run game. LSU ranked 93rd in rushing success rate last season, and now the offensive line has four new starters. If Clemson’s defensive front is better able to live up to its press clippings, this might be a damning matchup for the visitors.
Current line: Clemson -4 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 2.1 | FPI projection: Clemson by 0.9
Notre Dame’s floor vs. Miami’s ceiling
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami (Sunday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
We get another ferocious game Sunday evening, and based on what we saw at the end of last season, this is a pretty clear “floor vs. ceiling” affair. Marcus Freeman’s visiting Fighting Irish have as much of the former as you could want. Notre Dame battled injury after injury in 2024 but advanced all the way to the national title game because of pure depth in the trenches and the secondary. Even with sturdy players such as center Pat Coogan and DTs Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills gone and potential O-line star Charles Jagusah missing the start of the season because of a summer UTV accident, it’s hard to even pretend to worry about either unit.
The Irish secondary survived an injury to star Benjamin Morrison last season and continued to thrive because replacement corner Leonard Moore was just that good. Whether it’s Moore and safety Adon Shuler in the back, Jaiden Ausberry and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa at linebacker or Bryce Young and Boubacar Traore on the edge, there are top-notch sophomore defenders everywhere you look.
On offense, juniors Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price form the best RB duo this side of Penn State, and after slot man Jaden Greathouse enjoyed a star turn in the CFP, he was joined by senior transfers Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin). Like most of the top 10 teams, Notre Dame is breaking in a new QB — redshirt freshman CJ Carr — but the support system around him is strong.
If Notre Dame is the high-floor team, Miami is the high-ceiling team. The Hurricanes had the best offense in the country thanks to No. 1 NFL draft pick Cam Ward & Co., but the defense let them down terribly in late-season losses. With a total reset in the passing game — former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will throw to sophomore blue-chipper Joshisa Trader and transfers such as CJ Daniels (LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) — regression is almost inevitable. But the offensive line is one of the best that Notre Dame will see, and if new coordinator Corey Hetherman and some transfers can raise the defense by more than the offense falls, that’s a net gain.
With a healthy Rueben Bain Jr. up front, complemented by tackle Akheem Mesidor and a particularly exciting transfer in linebacker Mohamed Toure (Rutgers), the Hurricanes’ defense has potential. But Miami’s success Sunday and beyond might come down to whether a completely rebuilt secondary, led by sophomores Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin corner) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State safety), holds up. It sure didn’t last year.
Current line: Irish -2.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 1.0 | FPI projection: Irish by 1.1
Can FSU spring a surprise on Lee Corso Day?
No. 8 Alabama at Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
At age 90, Lee Corso will be making his final appearance on “College GameDay” on Saturday morning. He has been part of college football’s DNA since he showed up in Tallahassee to play for Florida State in the early 1950s, and he has been the sport’s gregarious uncle on GameDay for nearly 40 years.
GameDay is in Columbus, not Tallahassee, but FSU will still have a chance to make Lee Corso Day extra memorable by scaring a pretty loaded Alabama team. Even with defensive tackle Tim Keenan III expected to be out with an ankle injury, Kane Wommack’s Bama defense is loaded at every level from LT Overton up front to corners Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown in the back.
New Bama starting quarterback Ty Simpson needs to only be good, and his supporting cast should take it from there. Running back Jam Miller is out, but sophomore Richard Young is a yards-after-contact machine, receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard are excellent, and the offensive line might be the most proven in the SEC.
Whatever pressure Simpson is facing, FSU coach Mike Norvell is facing even more. It shouldn’t be possible for a team to crater from 13-1 to 2-10 in a single season, but that’s what the Noles did in 2024, and with two new coordinators and about 16 new starters, they’re one of the biggest mysteries of 2025. Offensive coordinator (and former Bama beater) Gus Malzahn should know what to do with dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos, who is certainly confident enough. But we’ll see if a completely remodeled offensive line holds up. The FSU defense should be a step ahead of the offense and could test Simpson with new pass rushers Jayson Jenkins and James Williams and new corner Jeremiah Wilson. It might take only a couple of turnovers or big plays to make this one interesting, but the Noles obviously bear the burden of proof.
Current line: Bama -13.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 14.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 17.1
What to learn in blowouts
The headliners are enormous, but three other top teams, with plenty of major questions themselves, have it much easier in Week 1. SP+ projects Penn State, Georgia and Oregon to win by 110.2 combined points; there shouldn’t be much intrigue here. But we can always learn something about teams no matter who they’re playing, so here’s one thing to watch for before these games enter garbage time.
Nevada at No. 2 Penn State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Nevada scared playoff-bound SMU early last season but got wrecked by portal departures and shouldn’t provide much resistance in Happy Valley. Any questions we have regarding Drew Allar and the Penn State passing game will probably have to wait, but with Chubba Purdy throwing to Marcus Bellon and others, the Nevada passing game might have a little spice, so let’s watch how the PSU secondary, which lost three of last year’s top five players, performs.
Current line: PSU -44 | SP+ projection: PSU by 43.8 | FPI projection: PSU by 38.9
Marshall at No. 5 Georgia (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Marshall returns only three starters from last year’s Sun Belt championship team; new coach Tony Gibson has quite the chemistry experiment ahead. I like some of the Herd’s additions in the secondary, though — namely corners Boogie Trotter and Marvae Myers — so let’s see what Georgia’s receiving corps can do, especially transfers Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas. Quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t get enough from his WRs in the CFP last year.
Current line: Dawgs -39.5 | SP+ projection: Dawgs by 37.0 | FPI projection: Georgia by 29.4
Montana State at No. 7 Oregon (Saturday, 4 p.m., BTN)
Honestly, Montana State, the defending FCS runner-up, might be better than either Nevada or Marshall this season, especially up front. Oregon’s offense is taking on a massive remodeling job, with basically one returning starter, and a strong MSU defensive line led by tackle Paul Brott and end Kenneth Eiden IV could tell us quite a bit about how a transfer-heavy Ducks offensive line might hold up this year.
SP+ projection: Ducks by 29.4 | FPI projection: Ducks by 24.9
Week 1 chaos superfecta
We’re once again going to use this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We scored upsets in 10 of 14 weeks last season. Here’s hoping for an even better/messier set of results this time around.
This week’s superfecta has an SEC theme: According to SP+, Alabama (81% at Florida State), Tennessee (85% vs. Syracuse), Texas A&M (90% vs. UTSA) and Mississippi State (84% vs. Southern Miss) have only a 52% chance of going 4-0 in Week 1. Which favorite is most vulnerable? My guess is MSU against a remodeled Southern Miss, but the odds for all four are similar.
Week 1 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Tarleton State at Army (6 p.m., CBSSN). Tarleton State leaped all the way to second in my FCS SP+ rankings following Saturday’s 42-0 pounding of Portland State, and while I figure that’s probably an overreaction, the Texans are a likely playoff team and could test Army if Dewayne Coleman and the new Black Knights backfield are slow to gel.
SP+ projection: Army by 5.9 | FPI projection: Army by 11.3
Georgia Tech at Colorado (8 p.m., ESPN). We get an ode to 1990 in Boulder; we also get a knowns vs. unknowns battle. Tech has Haynes King, Jamal Haynes and an excellent offensive backfield, but CU has Kaidon Salter, a talented crop of transfers and no idea if the pieces fit together.
Current line: Tech -4 | SP+ projection: CU by 0.4 | FPI projection: CU by 0.5
Auburn at Baylor (8 p.m., Fox). One of the bigger vibe-setters of Week 1. Will the Jackson Arnold reclamation project at Auburn take root? Because with solid QB play, Auburn has top-15 potential. Meanwhile, can Sawyer Robertson and Baylor capitalize on last season’s late gains? If so, the Bears are obvious Big 12 contenders. (Then again, who isn’t?)
Current line: Auburn -2.5 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 1.0 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.4
Early Saturday
Syracuse vs. No. 24 Tennessee in Atlanta (noon, ABC). Syracuse came from out of nowhere to win 10 games in Fran Brown’s first season, then lost almost all of its surprisingly awesome offense. The Orange have a chance to surprise all over again, but QB Steve Angeli will begin his starting tenure against a Tennessee defense that drove a CFP bid last season and returns quite a bit of talent. Joey Aguilar and the Vols offense have questions to answer, but the D is why they’re favored.
Current line: Vols -13.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 16.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 15.3
Northwestern at Tulane (noon, ESPNU). Over the past four seasons, Northwestern has averaged a 118.3 offensive SP+ ranking. SMU transfer Preston Stone takes over at QB, but how much of a difference can he make? And can the Wildcats scare a Tulane team with power-conference talent but lots of new starters?
Current line: Tulane -6 | SP+ projection: Tulane -15 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.0
Saturday afternoon
Old Dominion at No. 20 Indiana (2:30 p.m., FS1). There’s almost nowhere for Indiana to go but down following an 11-win playoff campaign in Curt Cignetti’s first season. But the Hoosiers still have stars in receiver Elijah Sarratt and linebacker Aiden Fisher, and they should comfortably dispatch a perpetually rebuilding Old Dominion team. If they don’t, that’ll be a red flag.
Current line: Hoosiers -22.5 | SP+ projection: Hoosiers by 25.9 | FPI projection: Hoosiers by 15.3
South Dakota at No. 22 Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox). I hope Iowa State stayed hydrated, got some rest and fended off jetlag after last week’s victorious trip to Ireland because South Dakota should be one of the best teams in FCS. The Cyclones tend to attempt the bare minimum in these games — average score of their past six FCS games: 28-14 — but the Coyotes might force them to dig deeper into the playbook.
SP+ projection: ISU by 21.4 | FPI projection: ISU by 18.0
Saturday evening
UTSA at No. 19 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN). I surprised myself with how high I was on A&M this season, but while the Aggies’ ground game should carve up a new UTSA defensive front, quarterback Owen McCown and the Roadrunners should properly test the A&M defense. If they show well, this might be the only time all year in which UTSA isn’t favored.
Current line: A&M -22.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 20.6 | FPI projection: A&M by 18.8
Rice at Louisiana (8 p.m., ESPN+). The Scott Abell experiment is upon us! Abell has brought his delightful option offense to Rice, and our first glimpse of it will come against a Louisiana defense with seven or eight new starters. That could create some glitches, though there’s nothing saying the Owls will slow down a talented new Cajuns offense.
Current line: Louisiana -13 | SP+ projection: Louisiana by 15.4 | FPI projection: Louisiana by 6.1
Late Saturday
Georgia Southern at Fresno State (9:30 p.m., FS1). Is Kansas just really good or was Fresno State’s 31-7 loss in Lawrence a sign of growing pains to come in coach Matt Entz’s first season? We’ll find out as Georgia Southern brings a prolific passing game and experienced defense out west.
Current line: FS -1.5 | SP+ projection: GS by 2.9 | FPI projection: FS by 0.2
California at Oregon State (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Four-star freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele won the starting job right out of the gate at Cal. Oregon State, meanwhile, turned to former Texas and Duke signal-caller Maalik Murphy. Neither defense looks amazing on paper, so both QBs could have a shot at a fast start. Who takes advantage?
Current line: OSU -3 | SP+ projection: Cal by 1.3 | FPI projection: Cal by 1.3
Hawaii at Arizona (10:30 p.m., TNT). In his first collegiate start last year, Hawaii’s Micah Alejado threw for 469 yards. In his second start last Saturday, he beat Stanford despite an ankle injury. Will the Legend of Alejado grow further in Tucson, or will Noah Fifita and an angry Arizona, coming off of a massively disappointing 2024 season, push the Warriors around?
Current line: Arizona -14.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 10.5 | FPI projection: Arizona by 14.1
Utah at UCLA (11 p.m., Fox). It’s Big 12 vs. Big Ten, but it’s Pac-12 After Dark at heart. Can Nico Iamaleava made a big, early splash at UCLA? Or will Utah, with a stout defense (but a new defensive front) and a completely new offense handle its old conference rival?
Current line: Utah -6 | SP+ projection: Utah by 4.7 | FPI projection: UCLA by 0.5
Colorado State at Washington (11 p.m., BTN). Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. looked great in a late-2024 cameo, and now he’ll run the show. That’s likely to go quite well, but a transfer-heavy Huskies defense will be tested by quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, receiver Armani Winfield and a high-level CSU passing game.
Current line: UW -20 | SP+ projection: UW by 19.8 | FPI projection: UW by 15.0
Sunday
Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 South Carolina in Atlanta (3 p.m., ESPN). Another big vibe-setter: Neither of these teams has begun a season well in a while, and both need to do so in 2025. Can a remodeled Tech defense slow down LaNorris Sellers and a super-physical SC offense? Can a remodeled Gamecocks defense slow down Kyron Drones and a speedy but brand-new skill corps?
Current line: SC -8 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.1 | FPI projection: SC by 5.6
Monday
TCU at North Carolina (8 p.m., ESPN). Bill Belichick’s first UNC team doesn’t seem to be overflowing with talent, but I’m fascinated by what offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens might do with quarterback Gio Lopez. TCU, meanwhile, seems to perform opposite to expectations every year — the Frogs made the national title game out of nowhere in 2022, crashed to 5-7 as the preseason No. 17 team in 2023, then won six of their last seven to win nine games under the radar in 2024. I’m considering them a major Big 12 contender this year … which probably means Belichick’s Heels win this one by 10.
Current line: TCU -3 | SP+ projection: TCU by 5.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 2.1
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 22 Richmond at No. 15 Lehigh (noon, ESPN+). Richmond makes its debut in an increasingly strong Patriot League by visiting the reigning champ. The defenses seem to have the advantage — ace pass rusher Matt Spatny keys an outstanding Lehigh front, but linebacker Carter Glassmyer and the Richmond defense are projected 11th in my defensive SP+ rankings.
SP+ projection: Lehigh by 1.0
NAIA: No. 4 Morningside at No. 3 Benedictine (2 p.m., local streaming). The NAIA season gets underway with a pair of heavy hitters — No. 2 Keiser visits No. 7 Indiana Wesleyan on the Team1Sports app (the one you probably downloaded to watch Hawai’i home games in the past), and in this one, three-time national champion Morningside visits a Benedictine team that reached the semis last year and beat Morningside 48-45 in a Week 1 epic.
SP+ projection: Morningside by 4.6
FCS: No. 14 Sacramento State at No. 3 South Dakota State (7 p.m., ESPN+). Two of the biggest mysteries in the FCS top 15 face off. New coach Brennan Marion welcomes 40 transfers to Sac State, including more than 30 from FBS, while SDSU takes the field with its third head coach in four years (Dan Jackson) and without 21 FBS-bound transfers. Do transfers trump culture at the FCS level? Or is SDSU just going to keep right on SDSU’ing?
SP+ projection: SDSU by 15.9
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David Purdum
The point spread on Saturday’s Texas–Ohio State showdown has been dropping all week, with one influential sportsbook moving the Longhorns from underdogs to favorites on Thursday.
As of Friday morning, Ohio State was a consensus 1-point home favorite, with some sportsbooks, including ESPN BET, at -1.5.
The Buckeyes opened as a 3-point favorite months ago, but sportsbooks have been reporting a steady stream of money on the Longhorns throughout the summer, causing the line to move toward Texas.
Sportsbook Circa, known to cater to professional bettors, had seen enough interest on the Longhorns to move them to a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Derek Stevens, the owner of Circa, said on VSIN that a $550,000 bet on Texas preceded the move to Longhorns -1. The line had ticked back to pick ’em by Friday at Circa.
“It seems like the public is moving the line,” Chris Bennett, sportsbook director at Circa, told ESPN. “We’ve seen a lot of interest in Texas, but not from the usual suspects, and by that I mean a subset of sharp customers we have a lot of history with.”
The Buckeyes have not been a home underdog since 2018 against Michigan and have been favored by less than three points at Ohio Stadium only once since 2012. If the line holds with Ohio State as the favorite, Texas will become the first team ranked No. 1 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 to be an underdog in its first game.
“The perception is that Texas is just more experienced than Ohio State,” said Ed Salmons, veteran football oddsmaker for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. “Arch Manning is considered a much better quarterback than the Ohio State quarterback [Julian Sayin]. Both are such unknowns, no one really knows.”
Salmons said it became obvious over the summer that the betting public was supporting Texas and that, once the line dropped from the opening number of Ohio State -3, it had the potential to move all the way to the Longhorns being the favorite.
“The public right now likes Texas, but we’ll see the day of the game,” Salmons said. “Sometimes you think that, and then all of a sudden you’ll see these big Ohio State bets. It’s a game we’re expecting a ton of handle on.”
The bulk of the betting action, both on the moneyline and spread, was on Texas at Caesars Sportsbook as well, but some of the bigger bettors had not weighed in on the marquee matchup of Week 1.
“There has not been a lot of wise guy action thus far,” said Joey Feazel, lead football trader for Caesars Sportsbook. “I believe that says more to the true variation of this game and not knowing exactly what you are going to get from either side of the ball. I expect we will see some action closer to game time.”
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