‘China is preparing to invade Taiwan’ – but there are questions over whether the island is ready
At a critical port on the Taiwanese island of Penghu, there is a sudden bang of explosions.
For emergency crews, it is a race to respond, attend to the injured and contain what damage they can. It is noisy and chaotic.
But this time, it is just a rehearsal.
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Is Taiwan ready for Chinese invasion?
In fact, what we have been invited to watch is part of a programme of nationwide drills to test Taiwan’s civil resilience.
To ask, in essence, if its people are ready for war.
And there are clearly questions here about whether they are.
Penghu is an archipelago that sits about 31 miles (50km) west of Taiwan’s main island. It could be an early, easy target for China – and that means preparation here is vital.
But observers who have travelled from Taipei to assess proceedings are not entirely impressed.
“Do you think with just the staff here now it will be enough?” asks one senior government official at a community hall where about a dozen staff are practising handing out food and supplies.
“Of course not! There will be more than 7,000 people queuing up. They’ll wait from morning until the afternoon and get nothing. It’s completely impossible.”
‘China is preparing to invade’
The scenarios might be imagined, but the threat behind them is very real, and it’s being met with a new sense of urgency.
And now, in an interview with Sky News, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister Wu Chihchung lays out the reality in perhaps some of the starkest terms used by this administration to date.
“The population need to not be naive like in the past,” he says.
“China is preparing to invade Taiwan.”
Taiwan was naive about its security, says deputy foreign minister Wu Chihchung
It comes at a time when increasingly sophisticated military activity and grey zone incursions from China have combined with a more robust approach from Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te, resulting in the most febrile atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait for decades.
Add into the mix Donald Trump’s presidency casting doubt over whether Taiwan can rely on US support in the event of a crisis, and questions about Taiwan’s readiness feel more pressing now than ever before.
“Taiwan alone, facing China – we will never be ready,” concedes Wu. “It’s not possible, China is so big, so huge.”
His words reflect harsh realities in Taiwan.
Self-governing and democratic, it is viewed by China as a breakaway province.
Under President Xi Jinping, the long-held aim of reunification has been turbocharged – he has reportedly asked his troops to be ready for a potential invasion as early as 2027.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s new president is seen as a deeply provocative figure on the mainland, with Beijing depicting him in propaganda as a parasite “courting ultimate destruction”.
In Lai Ching-te’s first year in office, he has demonstrated a willingness to go further in both words and policies than any who have preceded him.
He has not only described China as “a foreign hostile force” but has introduced a raft of new security measures, including the reinstating of a military court-style system, the deportation of pro-China influencers and a spike in the number of people arrested for espionage – four times as many last year as in 2021.
And all this has not gone unnoticed by China.
China’s grey zone tactics
The 14 months since Lai’s inauguration have been marked by an increase in Chinese action: numerous large-scale military drills, live-fire exercises and full encirclement of the island by jets and ships.
Beijing also appears to have been testing new capabilities, with onlookers in China taking videos of what appeared to be a test of a huge amphibious bridging system, a possible path on to Taiwan.
But perhaps the most noteworthy change has been the marked increase in so-called grey zone incursions, with China encroaching slowly in ways that are hard for Taiwan to respond to.
On Penghu, these tactics are a daily reality and are impacting lives and livelihoods.
“In the past, our fishing boats could go directly to mainland China. They’d even go ashore, maybe grab a meal,” explains Yen Te-Fu, who heads up the Penghu Fishermen’s Association.
Penghu’s fishing industry has been impacted by Chinese incursions
“But fishermen are now too afraid to sail to China. When they fish in our own waters, they constantly see Chinese Coast Guard ships. They’re genuinely scared.”
He says it’s worse now than ever “because Lai Ching-te’s stance is even clearer”.
But the use of coastguard vessels to enforce new Chinese-set norms is just one tactic, according to observers.
Taiwan’s Coast Guard faces off against Chinese counterparts near the coast of Hualien, east Taiwan, last December
Research published by the Taiwanese thinktank Research Project on China’s Defence Affairs (RCDA) has recorded new incidents of so-called “three-no” ships crossing the median line.
These are ships with no name, no registered home port and no registration certificate.
Thirty ships crossed on the eve of the one-year anniversary of President Lai’s inauguration as an “evidently disguised maritime militia ship”, the RCDA says.
While not against maritime law, it is nonetheless a serious accusation.
“This is nothing but a sheer slander, like a thief shouting ‘catch the thief’,” said Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for China’s ministry of national defence, when we put it to him.
“The relevant actions conducted by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait are necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Transactional Trump ‘constantly changing’
Conversations about Taiwan’s security have changed since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Like most countries, the US does not share formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but it is treaty-bound to supply it with defensive arms, and previous presidents have hinted they would do more if needed.
But Trump has accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US semiconductor industry, slapped it with a 32% tariff rate and refused to say if he would come to Taiwan’s defence (the tariff has been paused while negotiations continue).
At a baseball game in the northern city of Taoyuan, people didn’t hold back their views.
“I think he’s quite crazy,” one woman tells us.
“He’s constantly changing, there’s no credibility at all,” says a man. “It’s always America First, not caring about any other country.”
‘I think he’s quite crazy,’ says a baseball fan on Trump
Government figures, of course, remain more diplomatic. Lai described the recent tariff negotiation as merely “frictions between friends”, but there is a sense that they know they cannot afford to become alienated from Trump.
In fact, TSMC, Taiwan’s (and the world’s) leading manufacturer of semiconductor chips, recently announced an additional $100bn investment to build factories in the US.
Semiconductors are the vital chips needed to power the modern world. Taiwan makes more than 90% of the world’s most advanced ones, and the industry is seen as one of the key reasons the West could come to its support.
Trump announced the $100bn deal with TSMC president C.C Wei at the White House
The US investment was thus criticised by some as a divergence of Taiwan’s greatest defensive asset, a claim the government here bats away.
“America has also given us a lot,” insists deputy foreign minister Wu. “The American army is working hard to maintain peace in the region.
“Donald Trump certainly knows that without Taiwanese chips, he cannot make America great again.”
Taiwan’s ‘wake-up call’ on defence
With more concern over US support for Taiwan, come questions on whether the island could defend itself.
In recent years, there has been a concerted push from the Taiwanese government to better equip itself with the type of asymmetric weaponry that would be needed to resist China.
Inspired by the experiences of Ukraine, additional drone manufacturers were given contracts in 2022 to help rapidly scale up production of military-grade drones.
But data from the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology shows that there is still a long way to go.
Taiwan is attempting to scale up production of military-grade drones
Drone production capacity in the year to April 2025 was only around 5% of the 180,000 units Taiwan wants to be producing annually by 2028.
Thunder Tiger was one of the firms given a contract and its general manager Gene Su says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “wake-up call” for Taiwanese military procurement.
But more needs to be done, he adds.
“I believe we are speeding up, but I believe that it’s not yet there,” he says.
In his dealings with the government, he feels that Trump has changed the equation, with an uptick of defence purchasing.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a ‘wake-up call’ for Taiwan, says Gene Su
But even with these renewed efforts, without help from allies, it is still unlikely Taiwan could hold out.
China has always been resolute and consistent.
It says the Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China and that the Lai administration is a separatist force, which is the root cause of disruption to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
It also says there is “no such thing” as a deputy foreign minister in Taiwan.
The status quo has kept Taiwan safe for nearly 80 years and the government here insists that maintaining it is their priority, but that has rarely felt so vulnerable.
The world’s most secretive state is a mystery for billions of people – but not Anastasiya Samsonova.
She has returned from a week’s holiday in North Korea.
“We saw nothing terrible there, there is no danger there,” the 33-year-old HR manager tells me.
“Frankly speaking, we really liked it.”
She was part of a group of 15 Russian tourists who were the first foreign visitors to a new seaside resort, which was opened to great fanfare by North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in June.
Her holiday snaps show a white sand beach, shimmering seas and high-rise hotels. But something’s missing – people.
Anastasiya Samsonova at the Wonsan-Kalma beach resort in North Korea. Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova
There are rows of sun loungers, but not a soul sitting on them. A glittering banquet hall that’s devoid of diners.
That’s because, when it comes to international tourists, the Wonsan-Kalma resort is currently only open to Russians.
“The hotel was absolutely new,” Anastasiya enthuses, unfussed by the absence of others.
“Everything was done very beautifully, a good interior … very developed infrastructure.”
Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova
But why not Turkey? Or Thailand?
I gently suggest that people in Britain might be shocked at the idea of a summer break in a country better known for famines and forced labour than parasols and pina coladas.
“We were interested in seeing how people live there,” Anastasiya explains.
“There were a lot of prejudices about what you can and can’t do in North Korea, how you can behave. But actually, we felt absolutely free.”
Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova
Anastasiya is one of a growing number of Russians who are choosing to visit their reclusive neighbour as the two allies continue to forge closer ties following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Last year, North Korean troops supplied military support in Russia’s Kursk region, and now there is economic cooperation too.
North Korean produce, including apples and beer, has started appearing on supermarket shelves in Russia’s far east.
And last month, Moscow launched direct passenger flights to Pyongyang for the first time in decades.
Pic: Danil Biryukov / DVHAB.RU
But can this hermit nation really become a holiday hotspot?
The Moscow office of the Vostok Intur travel agency believes so. The company runs twice-weekly tours there, and I’m being given the hard sell.
“North Korea is an amazing country, unlike any other in the world,” director Irina Kobeleva gushes, before listing some unusual highlights.
“It is a country where you will not see any advertising on the streets. And it is very clean – even the asphalt is washed.”
She shows me the brochures, which present a glossy paradise. There are images of towering monuments, pristine golf greens and immaculate ski slopes. But again, no people.
‘There is a huge growing demand among young people,’ Irina Kobeleva says
Ms Kobeleva insists the company’s tours are increasingly popular, with 400 bookings a month.
“Our tourists are mostly older people who want to return to the USSR,” she says, “because there is a feeling that the real North Korea is very similar to what was once in the Soviet Union.
“But at the same time, there is a huge growing demand among young people.”
Sure enough, while we’re chatting, two customers walk in to book trips. The first is Pavel, a young blogger who likes to “collect” countries. North Korea will be number 89.
“The country has opened its doors to us, so I’m taking this chance,” he tells me when I ask why he wants to go.
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For pensioner Tatiana, the reason is sentimental.
“My husband wanted to go there, but now he’s gone. So I want his wish to come true,” she says.
It’ll certainly cost them. One week’s trip that takes in Pyongyang, a circus and the new beach resort, costs roughly £1,500 without flights.
At that price, I suspect most tourists will be content for this secretive state to remain hidden.
World
US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays
Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.
For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.
Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.
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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.
Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.
Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.
Why was 1 August such an important date?
To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.
Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.
The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.
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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?
Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.
The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.
Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.
Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?
The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.
China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.
Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.
There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.
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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line
Where does the UK stand?
We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.
While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.
Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.
UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.
Who has not done a deal?
Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.
America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.
Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.
Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.
What are the consequences?
This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.
The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.
It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.
Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.
Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.
Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.
Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.
US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.
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The big risk ahead?
It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.
The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?
The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.
It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.
A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.
The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.
World
Trump orders two nuclear submarines to be moved after ‘highly provocative’ comments from ex-Russian president
Donald Trump says he has ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the “appropriate regions” in a row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.
It comes after Mr Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia‘s Security Council, told the US president on Thursday to remember Moscow had Soviet-era nuclear strike capabilities of last resort.
On Friday, Mr Trump wrote on social media: “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.
“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters
The spat between Mr Trump and Mr Medvedev came after the US president warned Russia on Tuesday it had “10 days from today” to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face tariffs, along with its oil buyers.
Moscow has shown no sign it will agree to Mr Trump’s demands.
Read more:
Who are the winners (if any) and losers of Trump’s tariffs?
Mr Medvedev accused Mr Trump of engaging in a “game of ultimatums” and reminded him Russia possessed a Soviet-era automated nuclear retaliatory system – or “dead hand” – after Mr Trump told him to “watch his words” and said he’s “entering very dangerous territory!”
Mr Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was referring to a secretive semi-automated Soviet command system designed to launch Russia’s missiles if its leadership was taken out in a decapitating strike.
He added: “If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path.”
He also said “each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war” between Russia and the US.
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