After a wild final day, the 2025 MLB trade deadline is in the books.

The San Diego Padres and Houston Astros made surprising moves that rocked the deadline. The Seattle Mariners went big in their quest for the first World Series trip in franchise history. And the Minnesota Twins, well, left us scrambling to see who is still left on their roster.

Which clubs made the right calls? What should we believe (or not believe) about the rest of the baseball season? Now that the dust has settled from the 2025 trade deadline, we asked our ESPN MLB experts to debate what’s real — and what’s not — moving forward.

Real or not: The two teams to beat in the American League reside in the AL West after the Astros and Mariners made big moves

Bradford Doolittle: Not real. There is no team to beat in the American League. The Royals, Rangers and even the Rays — and that’s just the R’s — can all win that league. That’s not because they’re all sleeping giants. There’s just not much separation in that circuit.

I actually don’t believe the Astros are any better, and I already thought they were hanging on to their usual front-runner status with their proverbial fingernails. I like what the Mariners did, and that lineup is a lot more dangerous with Arizona’s former heart of the order. And I love Matt Brash, just to throw out some random hyperbole. I could slot the Mariners into the top spot from here, but I still don’t see any real separation.

David Schoenfield: Not real. I still think you can take the top six or seven teams in the AL and rank them in any order and not have much of an argument.

Yes, the Astros added offense in Carlos Correa and Jesus Sanchez, but Correa isn’t close to the player he was at his peak, and the Astros didn’t address their rotation. The Mariners certainly improved with Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, but their rotation hasn’t been nearly as good as it was last season, and the only reliever they added was Caleb Ferguson — hardly an impact move. The AL remains wide, wide open. Which will make these final two months super exciting.

Real or not: The two teams to beat in the National League are in the NL East after the Phillies and Mets loaded up at the deadline

Jorge Castillo: Not real. Both clubs went for it at the deadline and emerged bigger threats for October, but the National League remains a jumbled mess of contenders. In the West, A.J. Preller went full A.J. Preller again, aggressively maneuvering to improve the Padres’ chances, while the Dodgers are still the Dodgers, and their starting rotation is getting healthy. In the Central, the Brewers are a finely tuned machine, and the Cubs can bang with the best of them. Not a lot separates those six teams. It should make for a fascinating October.

Schoenfield: Not real. I love what both teams did at the deadline, addressing holes in their bullpens. But, um, the Dodgers are finally beginning to get healthy (Blake Snell will start Saturday, for starters) and the Brewers might still be the best team in the league, even if they added only reliever Shelby Miller, and the Cubs still have maybe the best offense in the majors.

I especially loved what the Padres did, getting Mason Miller, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin, plugging all their lineup holes while adding another dominant reliever to what was already a dominant bullpen. Much like in the AL, I think you could now rank these teams in almost any order. October is going to be a wild ride.

Real or not: The Padres are now a legitimate threat to dethrone the Dodgers in the NL West after their latest deadline spree

Alden Gonzalez: Real. Very much so. The Padres sat just three games back heading into the deadline on the heels of a five-game winning streak. Then they lengthened a very top-heavy lineup, acquired a pretty decent upgrade at catcher and, most notably, gave themselves the deepest, fiercest bullpen in the sport.

The Dodgers are quite comfortable with who they are at the moment — in first place, with several key players coming back, while feeling pretty confident that their best baseball might still be in front of them. But there’s no denying that the Padres are a legitimate threat. Again.

Jesse Rogers: Real. They got better where they needed to, especially at the catching position and at the bottom of their order. And their bullpen is clearly better than L.A.’s right now. The Padres have been hanging around near the top of the NL all season but have been viewed as only a good team, not a great one. They have a chance to be better now that they’ve eliminated the holes in their lineup. And whatever deficit they have in their rotation, that bullpen will make up for it.

Real or not: The Yankees helped their chances for a World Series return at the deadline — and the Dodgers did not

Castillo: Real. The Yankees approached the deadline seeking to improve three areas: the starting rotation, bullpen and infield. In the end, they checked off two of the three boxes well enough to consider them real AL pennant contenders without surrendering any of their top nine prospects on Kiley McDaniel’s organizational rankings.

Though the Yankees chose not to pay the trade price for an impact starter, they overhauled their bullpen with high-octane closers (David Bednar and Camilo Doval) and a third right-hander (Jake Bird) who misses bats at an above-average rate. On the position-player side, New York improved its clunky roster construction with four additions who should supply manager Aaron Boone with greater lineup flexibility and better choices to navigate games. Aaron Judge‘s elbow injury — and whether he’ll return to play the outfield this season — still looms large, but the Yankees are a better team than they were a week ago when general manager Brian Cashman started dealing.

Gonzalez: Not real. The Yankees certainly helped their chances by giving themselves a deeper bullpen and more options against opposing left-handed pitchers. But the Dodgers helped their chances, too. Brock Stewart is a sneaky-dominant reliever, especially against right-handed hitters. Alex Call, while not sexy, is a good fit as a right-handed hitter who works good at-bats and provides solid defense. The problem is the Dodgers wanted to do even better. They were in on Steven Kwan. They were in on Griffin Jax. But in the end, they were not willing to meet trade demands that were deemed by many as exorbitant.

Real or not: The Cubs and Tigers are still teams to fear in October despite their less aggressive deadline approaches

Rogers: Not real. Both teams did work to help them get to the playoffs, but not necessarily win in them. That’s where trading for those top closers or setup men would have come into play. The regular season is about starting pitching. October is about bullpens.

Detroit recognized the need but chose quantity over quality (though Kyle Finnegan should help). Neither team did enough compared with its rivals. That doesn’t mean these teams won’t win in October. But their deadlines were just so-so.

Doolittle: Real, because being a team to fear doesn’t equate with being the clear-cut favorite. I am nevertheless underwhelmed. Both teams have already positioned themselves for a strong seed, though the Cubs have to fend off the Brewers. Neither team made the kind of splash an all-in team would make.

Detroit certainly helped its rotation and won’t end up relying on as many bullpen games as it did last season. (Then again, that approach worked.) I would have liked to see the Tigers do a lot more for the bullpen, and I’m not big on Rafael Montero or Finnegan.

The Cubs’ deadline was a yawner. Willi Castro is a nice utility player, but I’d rather ride with Matt Shaw and his potential to break out at any time at third base. And the outlook for the pitching staff is unchanged from before the deadline, and yes, I realize the Cubs added some people to the roster. But they were good before the deadline and remain so now.

Real or not: The Twins made their future brighter with their trade deadline teardown

Doolittle: Not real. My mother, tragically an inveterate Royals fan, texted me in the midst of the madness asking if the Twins were going to trade everyone on their team. They almost did! But I don’t know — it looks to me like a case of moving things around and not necessarily ending up in a better place. The long-term payroll outlook is a little better, but this team has become a bit dull, and the bullpen — a strength — is a husk of what it was. I’d like the Taj Bradley pickup more, but a deal like this with the Rays is perilous. Thumbs-down for me.

Gonzalez: Not real, because so many of their moves were clearly about cutting costs for a franchise in transition. To me, the Twins trading away 10 major league players was an indication that this roster was actually quite good — and perhaps worthy of a chance to contend again in the perpetually open AL Central as early as next year.

There were some nice gets here (Bradley for Griffin Jax, James Outman for Brock Stewart, Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel for Jhoan Duran). But in the end, the Twins parted with key controllable players, none more notable than Carlos Correa, who went to the Astros in what amounted to a salary dump. This was a bad day for Twins fans. Painting it any other way would be a disservice.